Many resilience surrogate measures have been established to evaluate the performance of water distribution systems (WDSs) over the past three decades. However, most of those measures have neglected the nexus between network layout performance and the essential features of system resilience. In this paper, we proposed two novel surrogate measures by introducing node degree and pipe diameter uniformity within the extended nodal neighborhood in a rational, mathematical structure. Then, a comparison framework of surrogate measures was developed, which included a multi-pipe failure scenario generator and a dual-perspective evaluation method. New surrogate measures were benchmarked with well-known counterparts on four networks with different numbers of sources and loop degrees. Results revealed that new surrogate measures outperformed existing ones clearly with a marginal computational budget increase. Solutions derived from the proposed surrogate measures strengthened system resilience by increasing diameter uniformities from sources to critical nodes. Additionally, new surrogate measures showed fewer performance fluctuations. This study provides insights into how to maintain more resilient WDSs.
{"title":"Novel Surrogate Measures for Improving Water Distribution Systems' Resilience via Pipe Diameter Uniformity Enhancement","authors":"Yuehua Huang, Bailin Luo, Qianqian Zhou, Qi Wang, Zhiwei Zhao","doi":"10.1029/2024wr038237","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr038237","url":null,"abstract":"Many resilience surrogate measures have been established to evaluate the performance of water distribution systems (WDSs) over the past three decades. However, most of those measures have neglected the nexus between network layout performance and the essential features of system resilience. In this paper, we proposed two novel surrogate measures by introducing node degree and pipe diameter uniformity within the extended nodal neighborhood in a rational, mathematical structure. Then, a comparison framework of surrogate measures was developed, which included a multi-pipe failure scenario generator and a dual-perspective evaluation method. New surrogate measures were benchmarked with well-known counterparts on four networks with different numbers of sources and loop degrees. Results revealed that new surrogate measures outperformed existing ones clearly with a marginal computational budget increase. Solutions derived from the proposed surrogate measures strengthened system resilience by increasing diameter uniformities from sources to critical nodes. Additionally, new surrogate measures showed fewer performance fluctuations. This study provides insights into how to maintain more resilient WDSs.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"81 1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143462554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yi Luo, Qingqing Wang, Kun Yang, Yang Zhang, Chunxue Shang, Xingfang Pei, Rixiang Chen, Dingpu Li, Changqing Peng
Studies have shown that thermal runoff will form on the impervious surface after rainfall occurs in summer, which will cause thermal pollution to urban water bodies. However, the existing thermal runoff calculation models lack a simplified hydrothermal model suitable for typical impervious surfaces and do not continuously express the process of runoff formation by rainfall. In this study, a simplified urban rainwater runoff heat transfer model was established, and a temperature heat transfer model of urban impervious surface runoff based on numerical simulation was proposed in a continuous state. By comparing with the field-measured data, the model has a higher calculation accuracy (R2 = 0.98, MAE = 0.16°C, RMSE = 0.17°C). The combination of the random forest model and Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method was used to evaluate and explain the main factors affecting surface runoff temperature, and it was found that the initial surface temperature was positively correlated with runoff temperature, which was the most critical factor affecting surface runoff temperature. All other things being equal, we find that for every 5°C increase in initial surface temperature, the event mean temperature (EMT) will increase by 0.2°C, no matter what kind of climatic conditions and underlying surface conditions in summer, the runoff EMT will gradually increase within 2 minutes of the rainfall and reach the maximum value, after which the runoff EMT will show a downward trend, but it will still be higher than the initial rainwater temperature.
{"title":"The Formation Process, Mechanism, and Attribution of Urban Impervious Surface Thermal Runoff","authors":"Yi Luo, Qingqing Wang, Kun Yang, Yang Zhang, Chunxue Shang, Xingfang Pei, Rixiang Chen, Dingpu Li, Changqing Peng","doi":"10.1029/2024wr037696","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr037696","url":null,"abstract":"Studies have shown that thermal runoff will form on the impervious surface after rainfall occurs in summer, which will cause thermal pollution to urban water bodies. However, the existing thermal runoff calculation models lack a simplified hydrothermal model suitable for typical impervious surfaces and do not continuously express the process of runoff formation by rainfall. In this study, a simplified urban rainwater runoff heat transfer model was established, and a temperature heat transfer model of urban impervious surface runoff based on numerical simulation was proposed in a continuous state. By comparing with the field-measured data, the model has a higher calculation accuracy (<i>R</i><sup>2</sup> = 0.98, MAE = 0.16°C, RMSE = 0.17°C). The combination of the random forest model and Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method was used to evaluate and explain the main factors affecting surface runoff temperature, and it was found that the initial surface temperature was positively correlated with runoff temperature, which was the most critical factor affecting surface runoff temperature. All other things being equal, we find that for every 5°C increase in initial surface temperature, the event mean temperature (EMT) will increase by 0.2°C, no matter what kind of climatic conditions and underlying surface conditions in summer, the runoff EMT will gradually increase within 2 minutes of the rainfall and reach the maximum value, after which the runoff EMT will show a downward trend, but it will still be higher than the initial rainwater temperature.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143451676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Fengxia Liu, Guangcai Wang, Fu Liao, Zheming Shi, Charles Cravotta, Pengpeng Zhou, Xiangyang Liang
Desert lakes are sparsely distributed in arid/semi-arid regions of the world and are crucial to desert hydro-ecosystem. However, the sources of water and dissolved components in desert lakes, especially the inputs from anthropogenic activities, remain to be fully understood. This study used water stable isotopes, self-organizing maps, and principal component analysis to explore the origins of lake water in the Mu Us desert, northwest China, where intensive coal mining activities exist. Results show that all desert lakes were distinguished into two types: (a) Type A, dominated by Ca-HCO3 type with a relatively low TDS (192–405 mg/L) and the highest concentration of NO3− (1.14–5.94 mg/L); (b) Type B, characterized by Na-HCO3 type with a highest content of SO42– and TDS up to 159 and 1,207 mg/L, respectively. The water stable isotopic compositions in lake water of Type B are depleted compared to those of the lake water of Type A. A combined analysis of hydrochemistry of lake water, groundwater, and mine water suggest that the desert lakes have different sources: lake water of Type A originated from Quaternary groundwater discharge, while lake water of Type B was derived from the treated mine drainage (TMD) which led to higher TDS and SO42–. The hydrochemistry of Type A lakes was influenced by agricultural activities (fertilizer use and livestock manure), whereas the hydrochemistry in Type B lakes were mainly controlled by the infiltrated TMD nearby. This hydrochemical characterization approach may be helpful to understand the hydrology of desert lakes elsewhere.
{"title":"Origin of Water and Hydrochemical Components of Lakes: Example From the Mu Us Desert, Northwest China","authors":"Fengxia Liu, Guangcai Wang, Fu Liao, Zheming Shi, Charles Cravotta, Pengpeng Zhou, Xiangyang Liang","doi":"10.1029/2024wr038856","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr038856","url":null,"abstract":"Desert lakes are sparsely distributed in arid/semi-arid regions of the world and are crucial to desert hydro-ecosystem. However, the sources of water and dissolved components in desert lakes, especially the inputs from anthropogenic activities, remain to be fully understood. This study used water stable isotopes, self-organizing maps, and principal component analysis to explore the origins of lake water in the Mu Us desert, northwest China, where intensive coal mining activities exist. Results show that all desert lakes were distinguished into two types: (a) Type A, dominated by Ca-HCO<sub>3</sub> type with a relatively low TDS (192–405 mg/L) and the highest concentration of NO<sub>3</sub><sup>−</sup> (1.14–5.94 mg/L); (b) Type B, characterized by Na-HCO<sub>3</sub> type with a highest content of SO<sub>4</sub><sup>2–</sup> and TDS up to 159 and 1,207 mg/L, respectively. The water stable isotopic compositions in lake water of Type B are depleted compared to those of the lake water of Type A. A combined analysis of hydrochemistry of lake water, groundwater, and mine water suggest that the desert lakes have different sources: lake water of Type A originated from Quaternary groundwater discharge, while lake water of Type B was derived from the treated mine drainage (TMD) which led to higher TDS and SO<sub>4</sub><sup>2–</sup>. The hydrochemistry of Type A lakes was influenced by agricultural activities (fertilizer use and livestock manure), whereas the hydrochemistry in Type B lakes were mainly controlled by the infiltrated TMD nearby. This hydrochemical characterization approach may be helpful to understand the hydrology of desert lakes elsewhere.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"112 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143451713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yibao Lou, Yanan Zhu, Jie Wei, Wenlong Wang, Mingming Guo, Hongliang Kang, Lanqian Feng, Hao Yang
Vegetation significantly affects the soil properties and runoff processes of gully head systems, thereby affecting their development. However, the mechanisms underlying the effects of vegetation on gully headcut erosion remain unclear. To explore these mechanisms, a series of simulation experiments were carried out on plots with four types of vegetation and bare land (BL). The results revealed that vegetation reduces the runoff velocity in the upstream area (Vup), gully head brink (Vbrink), and gully bed (Vbed) areas by 15%–70%, 3%–54%, and 1%–30%, respectively, and that vegetation type impacts Vup, with no obvious impacts on Vbrink, the jet flow velocity (Vjet) or Vbed. Vegetation reduced the jet flow shear stress (τjet) under low inflow discharge, but under high inflow discharge, it increased τjet. Different vegetation types exhibited different effects on the increase in the Darcy–Weisbach friction factor (f) and Manning roughness coefficient (n) in the upstream area, whereas the effect of vegetation on the f and n value of the gully bed was not obvious. Vegetation reduced the gully head retreat length. Compared with BL, vegetation reduced the rate of soil loss by 31%–95%. Vegetation significantly and directly affects soil characteristics, hydrodynamic parameters, and gully head morphology. The gully head morphology significantly and directly influences the soil loss rate, which ultimately affected the length of gully head retreat. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the role of vegetation in gully headcut erosion, offering a scientific foundation for the implementation of preventive measures against such erosion.
{"title":"Effects of Vegetation on Runoff Hydrodynamics and Erosion Morphologies in Headcut Erosion Processes in the Loess Tableland Region","authors":"Yibao Lou, Yanan Zhu, Jie Wei, Wenlong Wang, Mingming Guo, Hongliang Kang, Lanqian Feng, Hao Yang","doi":"10.1029/2024wr038274","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr038274","url":null,"abstract":"Vegetation significantly affects the soil properties and runoff processes of gully head systems, thereby affecting their development. However, the mechanisms underlying the effects of vegetation on gully headcut erosion remain unclear. To explore these mechanisms, a series of simulation experiments were carried out on plots with four types of vegetation and bare land (BL). The results revealed that vegetation reduces the runoff velocity in the upstream area (Vup), gully head brink (Vbrink), and gully bed (Vbed) areas by 15%–70%, 3%–54%, and 1%–30%, respectively, and that vegetation type impacts Vup, with no obvious impacts on Vbrink, the jet flow velocity (Vjet) or Vbed. Vegetation reduced the jet flow shear stress (τ<sub>jet</sub>) under low inflow discharge, but under high inflow discharge, it increased τ<sub>jet</sub>. Different vegetation types exhibited different effects on the increase in the Darcy–Weisbach friction factor (<i>f</i>) and Manning roughness coefficient (<i>n</i>) in the upstream area, whereas the effect of vegetation on the <i>f</i> and <i>n</i> value of the gully bed was not obvious. Vegetation reduced the gully head retreat length. Compared with BL, vegetation reduced the rate of soil loss by 31%–95%. Vegetation significantly and directly affects soil characteristics, hydrodynamic parameters, and gully head morphology. The gully head morphology significantly and directly influences the soil loss rate, which ultimately affected the length of gully head retreat. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the role of vegetation in gully headcut erosion, offering a scientific foundation for the implementation of preventive measures against such erosion.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143451718","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yan Zhang, Qiu-Ye Yang, Michael Manga, Li-Yun Fu, Huai Zhang, Bingfei Chu, Gaoxiang Chen, Tianming Huang, Tongcheng Han, Shengwen Qi
The upper few hundreds of meters of the crust often hosts leaky aquifers. Quantifying leakage is important if those aquifers are used as a water resource. The responses of water level to external forcing such as tides and barometric pressure changes offer the opportunity to measure aquifer hydrogeological properties and monitor possible changes in those properties. Around the Huayingshan faults adjacent to Sichuan and Chongqing provinces, China, inclined fold-and-thrust belts form the crust, and frequent earthquakes might impact aquifers in the shallow crust that are used for drinking water. We introduce a new computational approach for continuous modeling of water level changes in response to barometric pressure variations to identify when the signals are reliable and then determine values of aquifer transmissivity and aquitard hydraulic diffusivity. Computed aquifer transmissivity agrees with values from well tests. We obtain horizontal and vertical hydraulic parameters for more than 10 years (from 2008 to 2019). Of the six wells studied, five have aquitard vertical hydraulic diffusivities at least two orders of magnitude greater than aquifer horizontal transmissivity. Although several regional and teleseismic earthquakes caused changes in water levels in one of the wells with relatively low vertical permeability, we do not see clear changes in hydraulic properties in response to the earthquakes. We also identify small long-term trends and seasonal variations in hydrogeological properties.
{"title":"Using Water Level Responses to Atmospheric Pressure Variations to Measure and Monitor Vertical Leakage Through Confining Units, With Application to the Jurassic Shaximiao Crust, China","authors":"Yan Zhang, Qiu-Ye Yang, Michael Manga, Li-Yun Fu, Huai Zhang, Bingfei Chu, Gaoxiang Chen, Tianming Huang, Tongcheng Han, Shengwen Qi","doi":"10.1029/2024wr037767","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr037767","url":null,"abstract":"The upper few hundreds of meters of the crust often hosts leaky aquifers. Quantifying leakage is important if those aquifers are used as a water resource. The responses of water level to external forcing such as tides and barometric pressure changes offer the opportunity to measure aquifer hydrogeological properties and monitor possible changes in those properties. Around the Huayingshan faults adjacent to Sichuan and Chongqing provinces, China, inclined fold-and-thrust belts form the crust, and frequent earthquakes might impact aquifers in the shallow crust that are used for drinking water. We introduce a new computational approach for continuous modeling of water level changes in response to barometric pressure variations to identify when the signals are reliable and then determine values of aquifer transmissivity and aquitard hydraulic diffusivity. Computed aquifer transmissivity agrees with values from well tests. We obtain horizontal and vertical hydraulic parameters for more than 10 years (from 2008 to 2019). Of the six wells studied, five have aquitard vertical hydraulic diffusivities at least two orders of magnitude greater than aquifer horizontal transmissivity. Although several regional and teleseismic earthquakes caused changes in water levels in one of the wells with relatively low vertical permeability, we do not see clear changes in hydraulic properties in response to the earthquakes. We also identify small long-term trends and seasonal variations in hydrogeological properties.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143451674","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Saman Razavi, Ashleigh Duffy, Leila Eamen, Anthony J. Jakeman, Timothy D. Jardine, Howard Wheater, Randall J. Hunt, Holger R. Maier, Mohamed S. Abdelhamed, Mohammad Ghoreishi, Hoshin Gupta, Petra Döll, Enayat A. Moallemi, Fuad Yassin, Graham Strickert, Ehsan Nabavi, Juliane Mai, Yanping Li, Julie M. Thériault, Wenyan Wu, John Pomeroy, Martyn P. Clark, Grant Ferguson, Patricia Gober, Ximing Cai, Maureen G. Reed, Andrea Saltelli, Amin Elshorbagy, Mahdi Sedighkia, Julie Terry, Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt, David M. Hannah, Kailong Li, Masoud Asadzadeh, Natasha Harvey, Hamid Moradkhani, Volker Grimm
The notion of convergent and transdisciplinary integration, which is about braiding together different knowledge systems, is becoming the mantra of numerous initiatives aimed at tackling pressing water challenges. Yet, the transition from rhetoric to actual implementation is impeded by incongruence in semantics, methodologies, and discourse among disciplinary scientists and societal actors. Here, we embrace “integrated modeling”—both quantitatively and qualitatively—as a vital exploratory instrument to advance such integration, providing a means to navigate complexity and manage the uncertainty associated with understanding, diagnosing, predicting, and governing human-water systems. From this standpoint, we confront disciplinary barriers by offering seven focused reviews and syntheses of existing and missing links across the frontiers distinguishing surface and groundwater hydrology, engineering, social sciences, economics, Indigenous and place-based knowledge, and studies of other interconnected natural systems such as the atmosphere, cryosphere, and ecosphere. While there are, arguably, no bounds to the pursuit of inclusivity in representing the spectrum of natural and human processes around water resources, we advocate that integrated modeling can provide a focused approach to delineating the scope of integration, through the lens of three fundamental questions: (a) What is the modeling “purpose”? (b) What constitutes a sound “boundary judgment”? and (c) What are the “critical uncertainties” and their compounding effects? More broadly, we call for investigating what constitutes warranted “systems complexity,” as opposed to unjustified “computational complexity” when representing complex natural and human-natural systems, with careful attention to interdependencies and feedbacks, scaling issues, nonlinear dynamics and thresholds, hysteresis, time lags, and legacy effects.
{"title":"Convergent and Transdisciplinary Integration: On the Future of Integrated Modeling of Human-Water Systems","authors":"Saman Razavi, Ashleigh Duffy, Leila Eamen, Anthony J. Jakeman, Timothy D. Jardine, Howard Wheater, Randall J. Hunt, Holger R. Maier, Mohamed S. Abdelhamed, Mohammad Ghoreishi, Hoshin Gupta, Petra Döll, Enayat A. Moallemi, Fuad Yassin, Graham Strickert, Ehsan Nabavi, Juliane Mai, Yanping Li, Julie M. Thériault, Wenyan Wu, John Pomeroy, Martyn P. Clark, Grant Ferguson, Patricia Gober, Ximing Cai, Maureen G. Reed, Andrea Saltelli, Amin Elshorbagy, Mahdi Sedighkia, Julie Terry, Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt, David M. Hannah, Kailong Li, Masoud Asadzadeh, Natasha Harvey, Hamid Moradkhani, Volker Grimm","doi":"10.1029/2024wr038088","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr038088","url":null,"abstract":"The notion of convergent and transdisciplinary integration, which is about braiding together different knowledge systems, is becoming the mantra of numerous initiatives aimed at tackling pressing water challenges. Yet, the transition from rhetoric to actual implementation is impeded by incongruence in semantics, methodologies, and discourse among disciplinary scientists and societal actors. Here, we embrace “integrated modeling”—both quantitatively and qualitatively—as a vital exploratory instrument to advance such integration, providing a means to navigate complexity and manage the uncertainty associated with understanding, diagnosing, predicting, and governing human-water systems. From this standpoint, we confront disciplinary barriers by offering seven focused reviews and syntheses of existing and missing links across the frontiers distinguishing surface and groundwater hydrology, engineering, social sciences, economics, Indigenous and place-based knowledge, and studies of other interconnected natural systems such as the atmosphere, cryosphere, and ecosphere. While there are, arguably, no bounds to the pursuit of inclusivity in representing the spectrum of natural and human processes around water resources, we advocate that integrated modeling can provide a focused approach to delineating the scope of integration, through the lens of three fundamental questions: (a) What is the modeling “purpose”? (b) What constitutes a sound “boundary judgment”? and (c) What are the “critical uncertainties” and their compounding effects? More broadly, we call for investigating what constitutes <i><span style=\"text-decoration:underline\">warranted</span></i> “systems complexity,” as opposed to <i><span style=\"text-decoration:underline\">unjustified</span></i> “computational complexity” when representing complex natural and human-natural systems, with careful attention to interdependencies and feedbacks, scaling issues, nonlinear dynamics and thresholds, hysteresis, time lags, and legacy effects.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143462534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Snow and glacier melt provide freshwater to millions of people in the Indus basin. However, the unprecedented increase in demand for freshwater and depleting resources due to climate warming has put the region's water resources at risk. Therefore, quantifying water mass variation and anticipating changes in hydrological regimes that affect downstream freshwater supply are of utmost importance. To address this, we used Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On derived terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) data from April 2002 to May 2023 over the Indus basin. Several gaps in these data, totaling 33 months, significantly impact regional trends and predictions of water mass changes. We apply a machine learning-based MissForest algorithm to fill these gaps and compare our results with four previous studies. Annual TWSA shows a declining trend (−0.65 cm/yr) before 2015/16, with a significantly higher (−2.16 cm/yr) after 2015/16. Based on the estimate for the annual groundwater storage anomaly (GWSA), a major portion (83.7%) of the basin is experiencing a significant declining trend (>−0.15 cm/yr, p < 0.05). Glaciated region has a less severe decreasing trend (−0.78 cm/yr) compared to the non-glaciated region (−1.44 cm/yr). Among sub-basins, the upper Indus shows the lowest decline (−0.42 cm/yr), while Panjnad exhibits the highest (−1.70 cm/yr). Annual precipitation and runoff are decreasing, while temperature shows no trend. However, evapotranspiration is increasing might be due to a significant increase in vegetation (0.23%/yr) over the basin. The trends of hydroclimatic variables, vegetation, and anthropogenic factors, indicate a consistently decreasing GWSA in the region.
{"title":"Declining Groundwater Storage in the Indus Basin Revealed Using GRACE and GRACE-FO Data","authors":"Jaydeo K. Dharpure, Ian M. Howat, Saurabh Kaushik","doi":"10.1029/2024wr038279","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr038279","url":null,"abstract":"Snow and glacier melt provide freshwater to millions of people in the Indus basin. However, the unprecedented increase in demand for freshwater and depleting resources due to climate warming has put the region's water resources at risk. Therefore, quantifying water mass variation and anticipating changes in hydrological regimes that affect downstream freshwater supply are of utmost importance. To address this, we used Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On derived terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) data from April 2002 to May 2023 over the Indus basin. Several gaps in these data, totaling 33 months, significantly impact regional trends and predictions of water mass changes. We apply a machine learning-based MissForest algorithm to fill these gaps and compare our results with four previous studies. Annual TWSA shows a declining trend (−0.65 cm/yr) before 2015/16, with a significantly higher (−2.16 cm/yr) after 2015/16. Based on the estimate for the annual groundwater storage anomaly (GWSA), a major portion (83.7%) of the basin is experiencing a significant declining trend (>−0.15 cm/yr, <i>p</i> < 0.05). Glaciated region has a less severe decreasing trend (−0.78 cm/yr) compared to the non-glaciated region (−1.44 cm/yr). Among sub-basins, the upper Indus shows the lowest decline (−0.42 cm/yr), while Panjnad exhibits the highest (−1.70 cm/yr). Annual precipitation and runoff are decreasing, while temperature shows no trend. However, evapotranspiration is increasing might be due to a significant increase in vegetation (0.23%/yr) over the basin. The trends of hydroclimatic variables, vegetation, and anthropogenic factors, indicate a consistently decreasing GWSA in the region.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"80 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143435545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mingjia Li, Jianbao Sun, Lian Xue, Zheng-Kang Shen, Yuexin Li, Bin Zhao, Leyin Hu
Climatic and anthropogenic changes are reshaping global water resources, with the North China Plain (NCP) experiencing significant surface subsidence due to severe groundwater overexploitation over the past half-century. In this study, we integrate data from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar, Global Navigation Satellite System, and hydraulic head measurements observed in 2015–2019 to investigate aquifers' physical properties and corresponding changes in groundwater storage in NCP. Geodetic measurements indicate seasonal and long-term deformation patterns. The amplitude of seasonal variation of deformation is up to 25 mm with phase lag behind the seasonal variation of water head. The integration of geodetic and hydrological data indicates that local aquifer storativity and clay lens thickness are <span data-altimg="/cms/asset/7bc5654a-4186-43ab-9d48-e41f2f4c08d2/wrcr70011-math-0001.png"></span><mjx-container ctxtmenu_counter="156" ctxtmenu_oldtabindex="1" jax="CHTML" role="application" sre-explorer- style="font-size: 103%; position: relative;" tabindex="0"><mjx-math aria-hidden="true" location="graphic/wrcr70011-math-0001.png"><mjx-semantics><mjx-mrow data-semantic-children="16,14" data-semantic-content="9" data-semantic- data-semantic-role="unknown" data-semantic-speech="0.67 times 10 Superscript negative 3 minus 14.38 times 10 Superscript negative 3" data-semantic-type="infixop"><mjx-mrow data-semantic-children="15,8" data-semantic-content="7" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent="17" data-semantic-role="subtraction" data-semantic-type="infixop"><mjx-mrow data-semantic-children="0,6" data-semantic-content="1" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent="16" data-semantic-role="unknown" data-semantic-type="infixop"><mjx-mn data-semantic-annotation="clearspeak:simple" data-semantic-font="normal" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent="15" data-semantic-role="float" data-semantic-type="number"><mjx-c></mjx-c><mjx-c></mjx-c><mjx-c></mjx-c><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mn><mjx-mo data-semantic- data-semantic-operator="infixop,×" data-semantic-parent="15" data-semantic-role="unknown" data-semantic-type="operator" rspace="4" space="4"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mo><mjx-msup data-semantic-children="2,5" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent="15" data-semantic-role="integer" data-semantic-type="superscript"><mjx-mn data-semantic-annotation="clearspeak:simple" data-semantic-font="normal" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent="6" data-semantic-role="integer" data-semantic-type="number"><mjx-c></mjx-c><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mn><mjx-script style="vertical-align: 0.393em;"><mjx-mrow data-semantic-annotation="clearspeak:simple" data-semantic-children="4" data-semantic-content="3" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent="6" data-semantic-role="negative" data-semantic-type="prefixop" size="s"><mjx-mo data-semantic- data-semantic-operator="prefixop,−" data-semantic-parent="5" data-semantic-role="subtraction" data-semantic-type="operator" rspace="1"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mo><mjx-mn data-semanti
{"title":"Characterizing Aquifer Properties and Groundwater Storage at North China Plain Using Geodetic and Hydrological Measurements","authors":"Mingjia Li, Jianbao Sun, Lian Xue, Zheng-Kang Shen, Yuexin Li, Bin Zhao, Leyin Hu","doi":"10.1029/2024wr037425","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr037425","url":null,"abstract":"Climatic and anthropogenic changes are reshaping global water resources, with the North China Plain (NCP) experiencing significant surface subsidence due to severe groundwater overexploitation over the past half-century. In this study, we integrate data from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar, Global Navigation Satellite System, and hydraulic head measurements observed in 2015–2019 to investigate aquifers' physical properties and corresponding changes in groundwater storage in NCP. Geodetic measurements indicate seasonal and long-term deformation patterns. The amplitude of seasonal variation of deformation is up to 25 mm with phase lag behind the seasonal variation of water head. The integration of geodetic and hydrological data indicates that local aquifer storativity and clay lens thickness are <span data-altimg=\"/cms/asset/7bc5654a-4186-43ab-9d48-e41f2f4c08d2/wrcr70011-math-0001.png\"></span><mjx-container ctxtmenu_counter=\"156\" ctxtmenu_oldtabindex=\"1\" jax=\"CHTML\" role=\"application\" sre-explorer- style=\"font-size: 103%; position: relative;\" tabindex=\"0\"><mjx-math aria-hidden=\"true\" location=\"graphic/wrcr70011-math-0001.png\"><mjx-semantics><mjx-mrow data-semantic-children=\"16,14\" data-semantic-content=\"9\" data-semantic- data-semantic-role=\"unknown\" data-semantic-speech=\"0.67 times 10 Superscript negative 3 minus 14.38 times 10 Superscript negative 3\" data-semantic-type=\"infixop\"><mjx-mrow data-semantic-children=\"15,8\" data-semantic-content=\"7\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"17\" data-semantic-role=\"subtraction\" data-semantic-type=\"infixop\"><mjx-mrow data-semantic-children=\"0,6\" data-semantic-content=\"1\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"16\" data-semantic-role=\"unknown\" data-semantic-type=\"infixop\"><mjx-mn data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"15\" data-semantic-role=\"float\" data-semantic-type=\"number\"><mjx-c></mjx-c><mjx-c></mjx-c><mjx-c></mjx-c><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mn><mjx-mo data-semantic- data-semantic-operator=\"infixop,×\" data-semantic-parent=\"15\" data-semantic-role=\"unknown\" data-semantic-type=\"operator\" rspace=\"4\" space=\"4\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mo><mjx-msup data-semantic-children=\"2,5\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"15\" data-semantic-role=\"integer\" data-semantic-type=\"superscript\"><mjx-mn data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"normal\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"6\" data-semantic-role=\"integer\" data-semantic-type=\"number\"><mjx-c></mjx-c><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mn><mjx-script style=\"vertical-align: 0.393em;\"><mjx-mrow data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-children=\"4\" data-semantic-content=\"3\" data-semantic- data-semantic-parent=\"6\" data-semantic-role=\"negative\" data-semantic-type=\"prefixop\" size=\"s\"><mjx-mo data-semantic- data-semantic-operator=\"prefixop,−\" data-semantic-parent=\"5\" data-semantic-role=\"subtraction\" data-semantic-type=\"operator\" rspace=\"1\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mo><mjx-mn data-semanti","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143435761","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jianhong Zhou, Kun Yang, Jianzhi Dong, Wade T. Crow, Hui Lu, Long Zhao, Huihui Feng, Jiaxin Tian, Xiaogang Ma, Xin Tian, Yaozhi Jiang
Soil moisture (SM) is a key state variable in the climate system through its control on evapotranspiration (ET) and ET-regulated lower atmospheric processes. The SM-ET coupling strength (SECS) is thus closely linked with land-atmosphere interactions and its reliability is crucial for Earth system modeling. However, acquiring global maps of unbiased SECS remains challenging given significant levels of error present in globally available SM and ET products. Triple collocation (TC) provides a possible solution; however, it is difficult to apply globally since it requires access to three independent SM-ET data pairs—a requirement that is difficult to meet in practice. Here, we generate a global SECS map based on a new two-system approach that requires only two independent SM-ET data pairs. This two-system approach is first validated over local ground sites versus a ground-inclusive benchmark SECS. Subsequently, it is applied to generate a global map of SECS with input from various independent globally available SM-ET data pairs (identified using the benchmark SECS). Results suggest that previous TC-based SECS estimates are generally negatively biased due to cross-correlated error present between RS products. Instead, our generated new SECS map is shown to provide more robust mapping of global SECS—thus offering an important reference for improving Earth system models.
{"title":"Mapping Global Soil Moisture and Evapotranspiration Coupling Strength Based on a Two-System Method and Multiple Data Sources","authors":"Jianhong Zhou, Kun Yang, Jianzhi Dong, Wade T. Crow, Hui Lu, Long Zhao, Huihui Feng, Jiaxin Tian, Xiaogang Ma, Xin Tian, Yaozhi Jiang","doi":"10.1029/2023wr036847","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036847","url":null,"abstract":"Soil moisture (SM) is a key state variable in the climate system through its control on evapotranspiration (ET) and ET-regulated lower atmospheric processes. The SM-ET coupling strength (SECS) is thus closely linked with land-atmosphere interactions and its reliability is crucial for Earth system modeling. However, acquiring global maps of unbiased SECS remains challenging given significant levels of error present in globally available SM and ET products. Triple collocation (TC) provides a possible solution; however, it is difficult to apply globally since it requires access to three independent SM-ET data pairs—a requirement that is difficult to meet in practice. Here, we generate a global SECS map based on a new two-system approach that requires only two independent SM-ET data pairs. This two-system approach is first validated over local ground sites versus a ground-inclusive benchmark SECS. Subsequently, it is applied to generate a global map of SECS with input from various independent globally available SM-ET data pairs (identified using the benchmark SECS). Results suggest that previous TC-based SECS estimates are generally negatively biased due to cross-correlated error present between RS products. Instead, our generated new SECS map is shown to provide more robust mapping of global SECS—thus offering an important reference for improving Earth system models.","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"129 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143435544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Robert Strong, Olivia Borgstroem, Rory Nathan, Conrad Wasko, Declan O’Shea
Extreme rainfall events have profound implications across various sectors, necessitating accurate modeling to assess risks and devise effective adaptation strategies. The common practice of employing three-parameter probability distributions, such as the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Pearson Type III distributions, in rainfall frequency analysis often encounters limitations in capturing rare, heavy-tailed events with a lack of consensus as to which distribution is the most applicable. In this study, we explore the applicability of the four-parameter Kappa distribution (K4D) for modeling extreme daily rainfalls using annual maxima from the Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily database. Quality checks and thresholds were used to remove erroneous and poor-quality data, retaining 20,500 stations with 50 or more years of data. The variation in the second shape parameter (<span data-altimg="/cms/asset/38c8a8bd-6099-4a01-845f-e8dfd3769fca/wrcr27658-math-0001.png"></span><mjx-container ctxtmenu_counter="107" ctxtmenu_oldtabindex="1" jax="CHTML" role="application" sre-explorer- style="font-size: 103%; position: relative;" tabindex="0"><mjx-math aria-hidden="true" location="graphic/wrcr27658-math-0001.png"><mjx-semantics><mjx-mrow><mjx-mi data-semantic-annotation="clearspeak:simple" data-semantic-font="italic" data-semantic- data-semantic-role="latinletter" data-semantic-speech="h" data-semantic-type="identifier"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mi></mjx-mrow></mjx-semantics></mjx-math><mjx-assistive-mml display="inline" unselectable="on"><math altimg="urn:x-wiley:00431397:media:wrcr27658:wrcr27658-math-0001" display="inline" location="graphic/wrcr27658-math-0001.png" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><semantics><mrow><mi data-semantic-="" data-semantic-annotation="clearspeak:simple" data-semantic-font="italic" data-semantic-role="latinletter" data-semantic-speech="h" data-semantic-type="identifier">h</mi></mrow>$h$</annotation></semantics></math></mjx-assistive-mml></mjx-container>) was examined across regime characteristics, geospatial regions, and climate regional groupings to identify where the K4D is best able to model extreme rainfalls. Consistent with theoretical expectations, <span data-altimg="/cms/asset/1a96b52e-6d43-4f73-899d-be3c670df5d3/wrcr27658-math-0002.png"></span><mjx-container ctxtmenu_counter="108" ctxtmenu_oldtabindex="1" jax="CHTML" role="application" sre-explorer- style="font-size: 103%; position: relative;" tabindex="0"><mjx-math aria-hidden="true" location="graphic/wrcr27658-math-0002.png"><mjx-semantics><mjx-mrow><mjx-mi data-semantic-annotation="clearspeak:simple" data-semantic-font="italic" data-semantic- data-semantic-role="latinletter" data-semantic-speech="h" data-semantic-type="identifier"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mi></mjx-mrow></mjx-semantics></mjx-math><mjx-assistive-mml display="inline" unselectable="on"><math altimg="urn:x-wiley:00431397:media:wrcr27658:wrcr27658-math-0002" display="inline" location="graphic/wrcr27
{"title":"Global Applicability of the Kappa Distribution for Rainfall Frequency Analysis","authors":"Robert Strong, Olivia Borgstroem, Rory Nathan, Conrad Wasko, Declan O’Shea","doi":"10.1029/2024wr039035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024wr039035","url":null,"abstract":"Extreme rainfall events have profound implications across various sectors, necessitating accurate modeling to assess risks and devise effective adaptation strategies. The common practice of employing three-parameter probability distributions, such as the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Pearson Type III distributions, in rainfall frequency analysis often encounters limitations in capturing rare, heavy-tailed events with a lack of consensus as to which distribution is the most applicable. In this study, we explore the applicability of the four-parameter Kappa distribution (K4D) for modeling extreme daily rainfalls using annual maxima from the Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily database. Quality checks and thresholds were used to remove erroneous and poor-quality data, retaining 20,500 stations with 50 or more years of data. The variation in the second shape parameter (<span data-altimg=\"/cms/asset/38c8a8bd-6099-4a01-845f-e8dfd3769fca/wrcr27658-math-0001.png\"></span><mjx-container ctxtmenu_counter=\"107\" ctxtmenu_oldtabindex=\"1\" jax=\"CHTML\" role=\"application\" sre-explorer- style=\"font-size: 103%; position: relative;\" tabindex=\"0\"><mjx-math aria-hidden=\"true\" location=\"graphic/wrcr27658-math-0001.png\"><mjx-semantics><mjx-mrow><mjx-mi data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"italic\" data-semantic- data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-speech=\"h\" data-semantic-type=\"identifier\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mi></mjx-mrow></mjx-semantics></mjx-math><mjx-assistive-mml display=\"inline\" unselectable=\"on\"><math altimg=\"urn:x-wiley:00431397:media:wrcr27658:wrcr27658-math-0001\" display=\"inline\" location=\"graphic/wrcr27658-math-0001.png\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML\"><semantics><mrow><mi data-semantic-=\"\" data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"italic\" data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-speech=\"h\" data-semantic-type=\"identifier\">h</mi></mrow>$h$</annotation></semantics></math></mjx-assistive-mml></mjx-container>) was examined across regime characteristics, geospatial regions, and climate regional groupings to identify where the K4D is best able to model extreme rainfalls. Consistent with theoretical expectations, <span data-altimg=\"/cms/asset/1a96b52e-6d43-4f73-899d-be3c670df5d3/wrcr27658-math-0002.png\"></span><mjx-container ctxtmenu_counter=\"108\" ctxtmenu_oldtabindex=\"1\" jax=\"CHTML\" role=\"application\" sre-explorer- style=\"font-size: 103%; position: relative;\" tabindex=\"0\"><mjx-math aria-hidden=\"true\" location=\"graphic/wrcr27658-math-0002.png\"><mjx-semantics><mjx-mrow><mjx-mi data-semantic-annotation=\"clearspeak:simple\" data-semantic-font=\"italic\" data-semantic- data-semantic-role=\"latinletter\" data-semantic-speech=\"h\" data-semantic-type=\"identifier\"><mjx-c></mjx-c></mjx-mi></mjx-mrow></mjx-semantics></mjx-math><mjx-assistive-mml display=\"inline\" unselectable=\"on\"><math altimg=\"urn:x-wiley:00431397:media:wrcr27658:wrcr27658-math-0002\" display=\"inline\" location=\"graphic/wrcr27","PeriodicalId":23799,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143427306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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