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Fuzzy Approach to Risk-Controlling in Oil and Gas Company Management 油气公司管理中风险控制的模糊方法
I. Fadyeyeva, O. Gryniuk, I. Mandryk, S. Korol
The article is devoted to the development and improvement of methodology and implementation of riskcontrolling subsystem in the management system of oil and gas companies in under uncertainty conditions. It is proved, that the mathematical tool of Fuzzy Logic allows to reveal and take into account complicated nonlinear dependences between quantitative and qualitative indicators of risk-event probability estimation, and also mutual effect of risk forming factors. The six-level system of evaluation of risks of operating activities of oil and gas companies, based on fuzzy logic has been established. It allows to take into account the non-linear nature of the relationship between the risk forming factors and the resulting indicator. The logical inference model has been designed. It shows the dependence of the risk level on the meaning of linguistic rules about groups of risk forming factors in different risk groups and which is the basis for the risk assessment model. The conceptual model of management of oil and gas companies with the risk-controlling subsystem as a part of it, the main element of which is the fuzzy model of risk assessment and forecasting, has been proposed. The research concluded, that the implementation of the proposed model of management of oil and gas production enterprises will significantly improve the efficiency of the upstream segment enterprises and significantly reduce losses, caused by the occurrence of risk-events. Keywords—controlling, risk, risk-controlling, risk assessment, fuzzy logic, risk-controlling subsystem, oil and gas company, management system
本文研究了不确定条件下油气公司管理系统中风险控制子系统方法的开发与改进。证明了模糊逻辑的数学工具可以揭示和考虑风险事件概率估计的定量和定性指标之间复杂的非线性依赖关系,以及风险形成因素之间的相互作用。建立了基于模糊逻辑的油气公司经营活动风险评价六级体系。它允许考虑到风险形成因素和由此产生的指标之间关系的非线性性质。设计了逻辑推理模型。它显示了不同风险群体中风险形成因素群体的语言规则意义对风险水平的依赖性,是风险评估模型的基础。提出了以风险控制子系统为主体,以模糊风险评价与预测模型为主要内容的油气公司管理概念模型。研究得出结论,实施本文提出的油气生产企业管理模式,将显著提高上游环节企业的效率,显著减少因风险事件发生而造成的损失。关键词:控制,风险,风险控制,风险评估,模糊逻辑,风险控制子系统,石油天然气公司,管理系统
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引用次数: 1
Investigation of influence factors on agricultural enterprises' technological processes management 农业企业技术流程管理的影响因素调查
L. Batiuk, N. Birchenko, O. Lutsenko, L. Polyvana
The state of activity of agro-industrial complex (AIC) enterprises in the context of its components is investigated, on the basis of the analyses of changes in the main indicators of agricultural production, the complicate aspects of innovation activity of Ukraine in the agricultural market are identified, the components of technological processes of agricultural production of Ukraine are determined, the factors of influence of agricultural production are investigated on the basis of methods of descriptive statistics management of technological processes of the activity of AIC enterprises. Keywords—technological processes, agro-industrial complex enterprises, agricultural products, risks of agro-industrial production.
在农业生产主要指标变化分析的基础上,调查了农业工业综合体(AIC)企业在其组成部分背景下的活动状况,确定了乌克兰农业市场创新活动的复杂方面,确定了乌克兰农业生产技术过程的组成部分。基于AIC企业活动技术过程的描述性统计管理方法,对影响农业生产的因素进行了研究。关键词:工艺流程;农产复合企业;农产品;
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引用次数: 0
Current capital optimization by the mathematical modelling of interconnections between its components 当前资本优化是通过数学模型对其组成部分之间的相互联系进行的
V. Orlova, S. Kafka, I. Hryniuk, O. Boichuk
In market conditions, competition is the main mechanism for regulating economic relations. It poses the problem of ensuring the survival and the possibility of further development of enterprises, which requires the participants of the economic process to take adequate measures to improve the mechanism, forms and methods of management. In these circumstances, it is especially relevant to study the issues of formation, operation, reproduction and management of capital of enterprises, and especially its working part. Working capital is a compulsory element of production that provides all the current activities of business entities. The article deals with the etymology and concept of capital, as well as its component current capital. It is proved that in order to increase the efficiency of the process of managing the current capital of the enterprise, it is important to find the optimal ratio of its components. In such circumstances, the process of optimization becomes a feature of the current capital management strategy. It is established that the most relevant to the optimization process will be a moderate strategy of system-oriented current capital management. On this basis, optimization covers the study of patterns and relationships between all components of current capital. In order to study these relationships, it is necessary to determine the impact on each component of the rest of the current capital components. These relationships are cyclical, and we find that their descriptions are appropriate using mathematical models. Accordingly, models for optimizing the size of the basic elements of current capital using the Lotka-Volterra equation have been developed. It has been proved that such model allows to estimate the level of mutual influence between components of current capital and to carry out the analysis with the purpose of making effective management decisions. In addition, in order to obtain adequate data on the behaviour of current capital components, it is appropriate in the future to determine the factors influencing them and the magnitude of the weighting factors that will correspond to them. These coefficients were determined using the method of expert estimation using the technique of point estimation. It has been established that the determination of the maximum and minimum levels of values for the components of current capital has a significant impact on the process of system-oriented management, and the factors that influence these levels will be represented by the indicators that are characterized by the following parameters. In the simulation process it has been found that the most important element, on which the managers of the enterprise in the decision-making process regarding current capital should focus, is the value of stocks taking into account their maximum allowable level. The theoretical and methodological significance of the study is to substantiate and evaluate the strategy of optimizing the size of the basic ele
在市场条件下,竞争是调节经济关系的主要机制。它提出了保证企业生存和进一步发展的可能性的问题,这就要求经济过程的参与者采取适当的措施,改进管理的机制、形式和方法。在这种情况下,研究企业资本的形成、经营、再生产和管理问题,特别是企业资本的工作部分,就显得尤为重要。营运资金是生产的必要要素,为企业提供所有的日常活动。本文论述了资本的词源、概念及其构成要素流动资本。证明了为了提高企业流动资金管理过程的效率,寻找流动资金各组成部分的最优比例是非常重要的。在这种情况下,优化过程成为当前资本管理策略的一个特征。建立了与优化过程最相关的是一个适度的以系统为导向的流动资金管理策略。在此基础上,优化涵盖了对流动资本各组成部分之间的模式和关系的研究。为了研究这些关系,有必要确定剩余的当前资本组成部分对每个组成部分的影响。这些关系是周期性的,我们发现用数学模型来描述它们是合适的。因此,利用Lotka-Volterra方程开发了优化流动资本基本要素规模的模型。事实证明,该模型可以估计流动资本组成部分之间的相互影响程度,并进行分析,以做出有效的管理决策。此外,为了获得有关当前资本构成行为的充分数据,今后应当确定影响它们的因素以及与之相对应的加权因素的大小。采用专家估计的方法,利用点估计技术确定这些系数。已经确定的是,流动资本组成部分价值的最大和最小水平的确定对系统管理的过程具有重大影响,影响这些水平的因素将由以以下参数为特征的指标来表示。在模拟过程中发现,考虑到股票的最大允许水平,企业管理者在对流动资本进行决策过程中应该关注的最重要的因素是股票的价值。该研究的理论和方法意义在于证实和评估优化流动资本基本要素规模的策略,这将允许将流动资本组成部分的规模设置在最佳水平,确保经济活动的连续性,并且还允许评估与之相关的未来风险
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引用次数: 0
Improvement of financing system of technological development on Ukrainian agricultural machine-building enterprises 乌克兰农业机械制造企业技术开发融资体系的完善
N. Reznik, A. Slobodianyk, V. Panasiuk, A. Ivanova
The article is devoted to the problem of research of prospects of financing of research and design works at Ukrainian agricultural machine-building enterprises, which will provide acceleration of scientific and technological progress in science-intensive and perspective directions of state development. It is proved that for effective implementation of innovative activity of the enterprise, the system of management of its financing must be built taking into account the life cycle of innovations at the enterprise, the scale and organizational legal form of its management. The essence of financing of innovations in the enterprise is characterized, which is expedient to be defined as a complex of measures for providing innovations and innovative activity with financial resources through methods and forms, ways of financing, i.e. in accumulation Ltd. SPE "BILOTSERKIVMAZ" of a certain part of financial resources and its direction towards achievement of goals, the main among which is financing of investment and innovation processes in order to form and implement an innovative model of development. It is substantiated that the proposed innovation cluster as a new scientific and technological formation will contribute to technological re-equipment of industrial enterprises, development of innovative infrastructure of the region, development of industrial production, agrarian sector, improvement of socio-economic status in the region. Keywords—financial support, research and technological development, budget financing, investment and innovation activity, innovation activity, informational and technological revolution, non-state funds.
本文致力于研究乌克兰农业机械制造企业的研究和设计工作的融资前景问题,这将加速科学和技术进步的科学密集型和前瞻性的国家发展方向。实践证明,要使企业创新活动有效实施,必须从企业创新的生命周期、企业管理的规模和组织法律形式等方面考虑,构建企业融资管理制度。企业创新融资的本质是有特点的,宜将其定义为通过筹资的方法和形式、途径,即积累有限公司,为创新和创新活动提供财务资源的一系列措施。SPE“BILOTSERKIVMAZ”的一定部分财政资源及其实现目标的方向,其中主要是融资的投资和创新过程,以形成和实施创新的发展模式。研究表明,创新集群作为一种新的科技形态,将对工业企业的技术再装备、区域创新基础设施的发展、工业生产和农业部门的发展以及区域社会经济地位的提高做出贡献。关键词:财政支持,研究与技术开发,预算融资,投资与创新活动,创新活动,信息与技术革命,非国有资金
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引用次数: 1
Methodological aspects of estimation of value of specialized property of enterprises 企业专业资产价值估算的方法问题
R. Volchek
The author's vision of the process of valuation of specialized property of enterprises, namely, industrial technological lines, is presented. The questions of expediency of use of the accounting-analytical instrument, which is capable to take into account the income component during determination of the value of specialized property are examined. It is presented the method of determination of the fair value of specialized property on the base of calculation and estimation of the special value of the property, as the amount of market value and its allowance. An instrument for determining the discount rate has been developed, which takes into account the peculiarities of the macroeconomic situation of the country, and the risks inherent to the use of specialized property of enterprises. The proposed methodology and developed methodological instrument for valuation of fair value of specialized property, will allow correctly to make management decisions about the production potential of the enterprise, which will further ensure its competitiveness. Keywords—specialized property, special value, replacement or reproduction residual value, cost approach, revenue approach
提出了对企业专业属性即产业技术线的价值评估过程的设想。在确定专业财产的价值时能够考虑到收入部分的会计分析工具的使用方便性问题进行了审查。提出了在对专业财产的特殊价值进行计算和估计的基础上,确定专业财产的公允价值的方法。已经制定了一个确定贴现率的工具,该工具考虑到该国宏观经济情况的特点,以及使用企业专门财产所固有的风险。建议的方法和开发的专业财产公允价值评估方法工具将允许正确地对企业的生产潜力做出管理决策,这将进一步确保其竞争力。关键词:专业属性,特殊价值,重置或再生产残值,成本法,收益法
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引用次数: 0
Economic Evaluation of the Prospects for Bioenergy Development of Ukraine in Conditions of Globalization 全球化条件下乌克兰生物能源发展前景的经济评价
Svitlana Matsyura, Viktoriia Radko, Zhanna Breher
Topicality. Globalization is characterized by exponential rates of production of goods and services, extraction of natural resources, increase in energy consumption. This has led to climate change. As a result, it is necessary to find a solution to this problem in order to reduce the negative impact of humanity on the environment. One such solution is the production of bioenergy. Ukraine is still an agro-industrial country, and it has a high bioenergy potential. In recent years (2013-2018) bioenergy of Ukraine has started to develop, but the existing pace of development is not enough to achieve the goals set out in the main plan of the article. Potential bioenergy producers claim that there is no economic benefit from such activities. Therefore, this statement is analyzed and refuted. The paper evaluates the bioenergy potential of Ukraine, proves the economic effect of bioenergy production, forecasts the development of this sector, analyzes the impact of subsidizing natural gas consumers on the development of the bioenergy sector. The paper assessed the bioenergy potential of Ukraine in comparison with other countries, took into account the participation of Ukraine in international programs, forecast the development of the domestic bioenergy market. The study revealed that activities in the field of bioenergy has an economic and investment effect. Keywords—bioenergy, economic evaluation, subsidizing, «green» tariffs, biowaste.
时事性。全球化的特点是商品和服务的生产呈指数级增长,自然资源的开采,能源消耗的增加。这导致了气候变化。因此,有必要找到一个解决这个问题的办法,以减少人类对环境的负面影响。其中一个解决方案是生产生物能源。乌克兰仍然是一个农业工业国家,它有很高的生物能源潜力。近年来(2013-2018)乌克兰生物能源已经开始发展,但现有的发展速度不足以实现文章主要计划中设定的目标。潜在的生物能源生产商声称,这些活动没有经济利益。因此,对这一说法进行分析和反驳。本文评价了乌克兰的生物能源潜力,证明了生物能源生产的经济效应,预测了该部门的发展,分析了补贴天然气消费者对生物能源部门发展的影响。与其他国家相比,本文评估了乌克兰的生物能源潜力,考虑到乌克兰参与国际项目,预测了国内生物能源市场的发展。研究表明,生物能源领域的活动具有经济和投资效应。关键词:生物能源,经济评估,补贴,“绿色”关税,生物废弃物。
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引用次数: 0
Asymptotic Methods in Optimization of Inventory Business Processes 库存业务流程优化的渐近方法
L. Horoshkova, I. Khlobystov, V. Volkov, Olha Holovan, S. Markova
The use of inventory management models enables the management of the company to optimize logistics business processes and to reduce fixed and variable costs of production, order and sales. The study proposes a multinomenclature model for optimizing inventory business processes using asymptotic methods. An easy-to-use analytical formula for determining optimal order interval, when order and inventory holding costs meet insufficient cyclical changes, is obtained. Testing of the developed model of optimization of inventory business processes was carried out on the example of the enterprise operating in the HoReCa segment of Zaporizhzhia the regional market. The proposed multinomenclature inventory management model enables the company management to apply situational management of these processes, modeling the changes caused by increased product storage costs and order fulfillment.
库存管理模型的使用使公司的管理层能够优化物流业务流程,减少生产、订单和销售的固定和可变成本。该研究提出了一个使用渐近方法优化库存业务流程的多术语模型。当订单和库存持有成本满足不充分的周期性变化时,得到了一个易于使用的确定最优订单间隔的解析公式。并以该区域市场HoReCa细分市场的企业为例,对所建立的库存业务流程优化模型进行了验证。所建议的多企业库存管理模型使公司管理层能够应用这些流程的情景管理,对增加的产品存储成本和订单履行所引起的变化进行建模。
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引用次数: 1
Substantiation of the Approach to Selecting the Depreciation Method for Property, Plant, and Equipment 不动产、厂房、设备折旧方法选择方法的论证
T. Dolishnia, I. Medvid, O. Stepanyuk, Yuliia Stakhmych
The purpose of the article is to substantiate the approach to selecting the depreciation method in oil and gas companies. To achieve this purpose, the following research methods were used: observation, comparison, integrated study of business transactions – to collect factual information on the use of depreciation methods in oil and gas companies; abstraction, analysis – to substantiate the approach to selecting the depreciation method for property, plant, and equipment; graphical method – for the visual presentation of research material. The scientific novelty of the study is that the authors have substantiated the approach to selecting the depreciation method for property, plant, and equipment in oil and gas companies. In order to optimally select the depreciation method the authors have proposed to develop a testing system with the help of the automated accounting system. It will test property, plant, and equipment within different groups, in particular in terms of the anticipated revenues, nature of assets use, etc. This will help to improve the qualitative characteristics of financial statements in terms of the reliability of information about property, plant, and equipment. Keywords—property, plant, and equipment, depreciation methods, financial statements, oil and gas companies.
本文的目的是为石油天然气公司折旧方法的选择提供理论依据。为了实现这一目的,采用了以下研究方法:观察、比较、综合研究业务交易-收集有关石油和天然气公司使用折旧方法的事实信息;抽象、分析——确定资产、厂房、设备折旧方法的选择方法;图形方法-用于研究材料的视觉呈现。该研究的科学新颖之处在于,作者已经证实了选择石油和天然气公司财产、厂房和设备折旧方法的方法。为了优化折旧方法的选择,笔者提出了利用自动化会计系统开发一个测试系统。它将测试不同集团内的财产、工厂和设备,特别是在预期收入、资产使用性质等方面。这将有助于在财产、厂房和设备信息的可靠性方面提高财务报表的质量特征。关键词:物业、厂房、设备、折旧方法、财务报表、油气公司。
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引用次数: 0
Development of Model for Assessing the Level of Multipurpose Water Use and Protection by Economic-Mathematical Modeling 基于经济数学模型的综合用水保护水平评价模型的建立
R. Rohatynskyi, N. Garmatiy, H. Humeniuk, N. Marynenko
The impact of industrial waste and enterprises’ emissions on the chemical composition of water, in particular, the content of phosphate ions in it and the main physicochemical indicators of water (dissolved oxygen, hydrogen index and water temperature) are determined. A model for assessing the level of multipurpose water use and protection using tools of economic-mathematical modeling – fuzzy set theory implemented in MATLAB software is developed. Factors of this model include level of production improvement, adherence to technological discipline; level of average content of phosphate concentration and physicochemical parameters of the water; full disposal of household, agricultural and industrial waste; rationing of water supply and drainage, rationing of maximum permissible concentration of various substances in the waters for drinking, fishery and other purposes; zero waste water discharge, recirculating water supply; imposing penalties on pollution, littering and water depletion up to the closure of enterprises, factories workshops, complexes-pollutants in accordance with the legislation in force; phytomelioration; subsoil tillage, contour farming. Terms for the linguistic assessment of selected factors of the level of multipurpose water use and protection in hydroecosystems based on fuzzy logic theory and the ranges of their changes are proposed. The rules base for the developed model is formed. Input and output parameters defuzzification is carried out according to the “center of gravity” of the Mamdani module of the MATLAB software. The level of multipurpose water use and protection is recorded at 80%, which corresponds to the high level (from 70% to 100%) of the scale and can be improved by increasing the level of each factor of the model. It is established that, when supplementing the input parameters and the rule base, the developed model can be applied to specific industrial enterprises. Keywords—hydro-ecosystem, fuzzy set theory, model for assessing the level of multipurpose water use and protection
测定工业废弃物和企业排放对水体化学成分的影响,特别是对水体中磷酸盐离子的含量和水体的主要理化指标(溶解氧、氢指数、水温)的影响。利用经济-数学建模-模糊集理论在MATLAB软件中实现,建立了综合用水保护水平评价模型。这种模式的因素包括生产水平的提高,对技术纪律的坚持;磷酸盐平均含量水平及水体理化参数;全面处理家庭、农业和工业废物;给排水配给制,饮用水、渔业和其他用水中各种物质的最大允许浓度配给制;零废水排放,循环水供应;依照现行法律,对污染、乱扔垃圾和耗水行为进行处罚,直至关闭污染企业、工厂、车间和综合设施;植物改良;底土耕作,等高线耕作。提出了基于模糊逻辑理论的水文生态系统多用途用水和保护水平选择因子的语言评价术语及其变化范围。建立了模型的规则库。根据MATLAB软件Mamdani模块的“重心”对输入输出参数进行去模糊化。多用途用水和保护水平记录为80%,对应于尺度的高水平(从70%到100%),可以通过增加模型各因子的水平来提高。通过对输入参数和规则库的补充,建立的模型可以应用于具体的工业企业。关键词:水文生态系统,模糊集理论,综合利用与保护水平评价模型
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引用次数: 0
State management strategic principles of tourism industry development 旅游产业发展的国家管理战略原则
O. Uhodnikova, N. Bogdan, I. Segeda, O. Yevdokimov
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Proceedings of the 2019 7th International Conference on Modeling, Development and Strategic Management of Economic System (MDSMES 2019)
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