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Two-stage optimization scheduling strategy for virtual power plants considering the correlated uncertainty of distributed energy storage in extreme scenarios 极端情况下考虑分布式储能相关不确定性的虚拟电厂两阶段优化调度策略
IF 11 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-04-15 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127477
Runxin Chen , Liqing Liao , Dongran Song , Chuxi Wei , Jian Yang , M. Talaat , M.H. Elkholy
Under extreme scenarios, virtual power plants (VPPs) are subjected to multiple impacts such as abrupt changes in source-load power and mismatched coordinated operation of distributed energy storage (DES) clusters, which significantly increases the difficulty of balancing scheduling security and economic efficiency. Considering the correlated uncertainty of DES, this article proposes a two-stage optimization scheduling strategy for VPPs to address the issue of enhancing system resilience in extreme disaster events. Firstly, K-means clustering is performed on the wind and load data, and based on typical scenario screening, an extreme scenario optimization selection mechanism is proposed with the principle of maximizing scenario dissimilarity. Secondly, based on cross correlation analysis, the correlated uncertainty of DES power changes in extreme scenarios is characterized, and a correlated matrix is constructed. Then, the two-stage optimization scheduling strategy is proposed. In the first stage, the total cost of purchasing electricity and operation and maintenance expenses is minimized. In the second stage, based on the output of each DES obtained in the first stage, the correlated uncertainty between DES and their own response deviation are reduced. Finally, the effectiveness of the strategy is verified through numerical analysis. The results show that compared to existing methods, the proposed strategy can reduce 30.91% of the power gap and 68.77% of the total cost in extreme scenarios of the distribution network. Therefore, the proposed method effectively balances the risk resistance ability and scheduling economy in extreme scenarios, providing a new technical path for the safe and efficient operation of VPP under extreme working conditions.
在极端情况下,虚拟电厂受到源荷功率突变、分布式储能集群不匹配协同运行等多重影响,极大地增加了平衡调度安全和经济效益的难度。考虑到分布式分布式系统的相关不确定性,本文提出了一种两阶段优化调度策略,以解决在极端灾害事件中增强系统弹性的问题。首先对风负荷数据进行K-means聚类,在典型场景筛选的基础上,提出了一种以场景差异性最大化为原则的极端场景优化选择机制;其次,基于互相关分析,表征了极端情景下DES功率变化的相关不确定性,构建了相关矩阵;然后,提出了两阶段优化调度策略。在第一阶段,购买电力和运行维护费用的总成本最小。在第二阶段,基于第一阶段得到的每个DES的输出,减少DES与自身响应偏差之间的相关不确定性。最后,通过数值分析验证了该策略的有效性。结果表明,在配电网的极端情况下,与现有方法相比,所提出的策略可以减少30.91%的电力缺口和68.77%的总成本。因此,该方法有效地平衡了极端工况下的抗风险能力和调度经济性,为VPP在极端工况下的安全高效运行提供了新的技术路径。
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引用次数: 0
High-resolution dynamic modeling and techno-economic optimization of off-grid PV–electrolysis–BESS systems for green hydrogen production 绿色制氢离网pv -电解- bess系统的高分辨率动态建模与技术经济优化
IF 11 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-04-15 Epub Date: 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127451
Haeseong Shin , Dohyung Jang , Hee-Sun Shin , Sungtae Park , Sanggyu Kang
Green hydrogen production through water electrolysis (WE) powered by renewable energy offers a promising pathway for decarbonization but faces challenges related to cost, variability, and stable off-grid operation. This study proposes an optimal design and operational strategy for an off-grid green hydrogen production system integrating photovoltaic (PV) generation, alkaline water electrolysis, proton exchange membrane water electrolysis (PEMWE), and battery energy storage systems (BESS). A dynamic simulation framework using one-minute PV irradiance data was developed to capture short-term renewable fluctuations and evaluate the interactions among the electrolyzers and BESS under real-time operation. The optimal system configuration was determined as 120 MW PV, 100 MW PEMWE, and 34.8 MWh BESS, achieving a Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) of $10.77/kg under base conditions. Sensitivity analyses indicated that a 20% reduction in PV CAPEX reduced the LCOH to $9.81/kg, while doubling the BESS C-rate or halving the AWE minimum load range further decreased LCOH by 5–10%. These results demonstrate that integrating dynamic modeling with techno-economic evaluation enables a realistic and comprehensive assessment of off-grid hydrogen systems, providing practical guidance for the cost-effective and stable production of green hydrogen under renewable energy variability.
以可再生能源为动力的水电解(WE)绿色制氢为脱碳提供了一条有希望的途径,但面临着与成本、可变性和稳定离网运行相关的挑战。本研究提出了一个集光伏发电、碱性电解、质子交换膜电解和电池储能系统于一体的离网绿色制氢系统的优化设计和运行策略。利用一分钟PV辐照度数据,开发了一个动态模拟框架,以捕捉可再生能源的短期波动,并评估实时运行下电解槽和BESS之间的相互作用。确定了最佳系统配置为120 MW PV, 100 MW PEMWE和34.8 MWh BESS,在基本条件下实现氢的平准化成本(LCOH)为10.77美元/千克。敏感性分析表明,光伏资本支出减少20%,LCOH降低至9.81美元/公斤,而BESS c率翻倍或AWE最小负载范围减半,LCOH进一步降低5-10%。这些结果表明,将动态建模与技术经济评估相结合,能够对离网氢系统进行真实、全面的评估,为可再生能源变化条件下经济、稳定地生产绿色氢提供实用指导。
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引用次数: 0
Instantaneous urban facade PV potential assessment: An end-to-end deep learning framework for arbitrary planning horizons 即时城市立面光伏潜力评估:针对任意规划视界的端到端深度学习框架
IF 11 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-04-15 Epub Date: 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127357
Kechuan Dong , Zhiling Guo , Qing Yu , Jian Xu , Xuanyu Liu , Jinyue Yan
Traditional physics-based simulation approaches for urban facade photovoltaic potential assessment remain computationally intractable for metropolitan-scale deployment, requiring weeks to months of processing time that effectively paralyzes evidence-based urban energy policy development. This computational barrier has prevented the transition from theoretical renewable energy potential to operational decarbonization planning tools despite building facades representing the primary scalable pathway for distributed solar generation in space-constrained urban environments. To overcome this fundamental barrier, we introduce E2AY-Net, an end-to-end deep learning framework that transforms urban facade PV assessment from slow multi-stage simulation into instantaneous spatially-resolved energy yield generation. E2AY-Net integrates three specialized encoding pathways: convolutional neural networks capturing hierarchical urban morphological features across spatial scales from individual facades to city-scale configurations, Transformer architectures processing arbitrary-length meteorological sequences spanning hours to years with attention mechanisms preserving long-range temporal dependencies, and multilayer perceptrons accommodating diverse photovoltaic module specifications. Validated in the hyper-dense urban environment of Hong Kong, the framework achieves comprehensive annual assessment of the complete urban domain in 33.79 s with 678,955× computational acceleration, while maintaining engineering-grade accuracy with 5.56% mean relative error and 84.6% of building surfaces achieving predictions within 10% tolerance. The anytime capability enables flexible assessment across arbitrary planning horizons from short-term feasibility studies to comprehensive annual evaluations through processing variable-length meteorological sequences in single forward passes without architectural modification or pipeline re-execution. Strategic deployment analysis reveals that targeted installation on the highest-performing 25% of facades, concentrated within merely 9.2% of total available facade area, achieves 3200 GWh annual generation potential with 1500 kt CO2 emission reduction capacity. This work establishes a practical breakthrough enabling the transition from computationally intractable urban energy assessment to real-time interactive planning tools, fundamentally transforming urban building envelopes into accessible distributed energy infrastructure for evidence-based decarbonization policy development across space-constrained metropolitan environments worldwide.
传统的基于物理的城市立面光伏潜力评估模拟方法在大都市规模的部署中仍然难以计算,需要数周到数月的处理时间,这有效地瘫痪了基于证据的城市能源政策制定。这种计算障碍阻碍了从理论上的可再生能源潜力到实际的脱碳规划工具的过渡,尽管建筑立面代表了在空间有限的城市环境中分布式太阳能发电的主要可扩展途径。为了克服这一基本障碍,我们引入了E2AY-Net,这是一个端到端的深度学习框架,将城市立面光伏评估从缓慢的多阶段模拟转变为即时的空间分辨能量生成。E2AY-Net集成了三种专门的编码途径:卷积神经网络捕获从单个立面到城市尺度配置的跨空间尺度的分层城市形态特征,Transformer架构处理跨越数小时到数年的任意长度的气象序列,注意机制保持长期的时间依赖性,以及适应不同光伏组件规格的多层感知器。该框架在香港高密度城市环境中得到验证,在33.79秒内以678,955倍的计算加速完成了对整个城市领域的全面年度评估,同时保持了工程级的精度,平均相对误差为5.56%,84.6%的建筑表面实现了10%容差范围内的预测。任何时候都可以灵活地评估任意规划范围,从短期可行性研究到综合年度评估,通过处理单一向前通道的可变长度气象序列,无需修改建筑或重新执行管道。战略部署分析显示,目标安装在性能最高的25%的立面上,集中在仅占总可用立面面积9.2%的区域内,实现了3200吉瓦时的年发电潜力,减少了1500千瓦时的二氧化碳排放能力。这项工作建立了一个实际的突破,实现了从计算上难以处理的城市能源评估向实时交互式规划工具的过渡,从根本上将城市建筑围护结构转变为可访问的分布式能源基础设施,从而在全球空间有限的大都市环境中制定基于证据的脱碳政策。
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引用次数: 0
Insights into the role of gasification media in gasification process: Principles, advantages, bottlenecks and prospects 气化介质在气化过程中的作用:原理、优势、瓶颈和前景
IF 11 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-04-15 Epub Date: 2026-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127543
Beibei Yan , Rui Zhang , Zhuang Yuan , Zhi Wang , Jian Li , Shengquan Zhou , Xiaochao Zhu , Guanyi Chen
Gasification technology is a sustainable energy generation technology that converts biomass into syngas products. At the same time, gasification media (GM) can change the core reaction principle of gasification reaction, resulting in different syngas compositions, yields and efficiencies. The appropriate selection of GM is an important way to improve the economy and performance of gasification technology. This review provides an overview of the GM currently used for gasification, which fall into two main categories: gas (air, O2, steam, H2, CO2 and High-temperature flue gas (HTFG)) and solid (metal oxides and sulphates and natural ore, and industrial slag) GM with the monomers and complexes. Moreover, the principles, advantages, bottlenecks and application scenarios of various GM involved in the gasification reaction are described. In the further, potential proposals such as the application and precise control of multi GM, industrial preparation for full-scale and integration of gasification with other technologies, may be the development directions for GM. This work provides insights and references for the selection of GM to achieve efficient conversion of substrates into syngas during the gasification process.
气化技术是一种将生物质转化为合成气产品的可持续能源生产技术。同时,气化介质(GM)可以改变气化反应的核心反应原理,从而产生不同的合成气组成、产率和效率。合理选择GM是提高气化技术经济性和性能的重要途径。本文综述了目前用于气化的GM,主要分为两大类:气体(空气、O2、蒸汽、H2、CO2和高温烟气)和固体(金属氧化物、硫酸盐、天然矿石和工业炉渣)GM及其单体和配合物。介绍了气化反应中涉及到的各种转基因生物的原理、优势、瓶颈和应用场景。此外,多种转基因的应用和精确控制、大规模的工业化制备以及气化与其他技术的整合等可能是转基因的发展方向。本工作为转基因的选择提供了见解和参考,以实现气化过程中底物向合成气的有效转化。
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引用次数: 0
Leveraging the capabilities of physics-informed neural networks for channel optimization in PEM fuel cells 利用物理信息神经网络的能力,优化PEM燃料电池的通道
IF 11 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-04-15 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127478
Julian Nicolas Toussaint , Sebastian Pieper , Max Paul Mally , Stefan Pischinger
Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) offer a promising alternative to computationally expensive CFD-based design studies of proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs). However, their suitability for modeling realistic fuel cell channel flows and their ability to generalize across different geometric designs have not yet been systematically assessed. This work addresses this gap by developing a mesh-free PINN framework that embeds the governing transport equations of multicomponent channel flow, including oxygen consumption, directly into the learning process. Unlike conventional artificial neural networks (ANNs), the proposed PINN does not require labelled CFD training data. In this work, CFD data are used for benchmarking and validation, while the PINN training itself does not rely on CFD field solutions in the interior of the computational domain, and the PINN training itself is driven solely by the embedded governing equations without labelled CFD target fields. The model is evaluated with respect to two core research questions: (i) Can a PINN accurately reproduce the coupled flow and species transport fields in a PEMFC gas channel? and (ii) Can the learned physics be leveraged to predict performance for previously unseen channel widths? Results show that the PINN reproduces CFD reference fields with high accuracy and substantially outperforms ANNs in generalizing to channel widths not included in training. Moreover, the PINN-based design study achieves a computational time reduction of approximately 83.9% compared to full CFD simulations. These findings demonstrate that PINNs provide a data-efficient and computationally lightweight surrogate model suitable for accelerating iterative PEMFC channel design, here exemplarily demonstrated for variations in channel width.
基于物理信息的神经网络(pinn)为质子交换膜燃料电池(pemfc)的设计研究提供了一个很有前途的替代方案,该方案基于计算成本高昂的cfd。然而,它们对模拟现实燃料电池通道流动的适用性以及它们在不同几何设计中的推广能力尚未得到系统的评估。这项工作通过开发无网格PINN框架解决了这一差距,该框架将多组分通道流(包括氧气消耗)的控制传输方程直接嵌入到学习过程中。与传统的人工神经网络(ann)不同,所提出的PINN不需要标记CFD训练数据。在这项工作中,CFD数据用于基准测试和验证,而PINN训练本身不依赖于计算域内部的CFD场解,并且PINN训练本身仅由嵌入式控制方程驱动,没有标记的CFD目标场。该模型针对两个核心研究问题进行了评估:(i) PINN能否准确再现PEMFC气体通道中的耦合流动和物质输运场?(ii)是否可以利用所学的物理来预测以前看不见的信道宽度的性能?结果表明,PINN以较高的精度再现CFD参考场,并且在泛化到未包括在训练中的通道宽度方面大大优于人工神经网络。此外,基于pup的设计研究与全CFD模拟相比,计算时间减少了约83.9%。这些发现表明,pinn提供了一种数据效率高、计算量轻的替代模型,适用于加速迭代PEMFC通道设计,这里举例说明了通道宽度的变化。
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引用次数: 0
Aggregator electricity price guarantees for households with flexibility potential utilizing thermal building inertia 利用建筑热惯性为具有灵活潜力的家庭提供集热器电价保障
IF 11 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-04-15 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127430
Leo Semmelmann , Steven O. Kimbrough , Philipp Staudt
This study introduces an approach to mitigate the reluctance of households to adopt dynamic electricity tariffs by proposing individual price contracts tailored to household characteristics. These contracts guarantee individual electricity rates to households with flexibility potential, such as thermal or electrical storage and the thermal mass of buildings, in exchange for granting aggregators operational control. The household-specific contracts are determined and evaluated through a three-step process, combining deterministic and stochastic modeling. First, an optimization problem for the operation of home energy management systems is formulated. The proposed model incorporates the thermal inertia of buildings as a flexibility potential, an aspect frequently overlooked in existing studies. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation of household parameter combinations is run, followed by a quantile regression prediction of household-level low-price guarantees. The simulations of 9404 household configurations in Germany demonstrate that aggregator-managed flexibility consistently lowered electricity costs by an average of 7.36% (2.5 ct/kWh) compared to static tariffs, with 78.4% of households achieving rates below the competitive retail benchmark. Aggregators also realized higher profitability on a per-household basis across all three analyzed years compared to scenarios without flexibility control. Our results demonstrate that building parameters, particularly thermal inertia, substantially influence the available flexibility potential and should be considered a key factor in the design of household-level guarantee contracts. The study contributes to understanding and quantifying uncertainty in dynamic tariffs for households, aiming to advance the utilization of household demand response potential in modern power markets.
本研究提出了一种方法,通过提出适合家庭特征的个人价格合同来缓解家庭不愿意采用动态电价。这些合同保证了具有灵活性潜力的家庭的个别电价,例如热或电储存以及建筑物的热质量,以换取集成商的运营控制权。采用确定性模型和随机模型相结合的三步法确定和评估家庭特定契约。首先,提出了家庭能源管理系统运行的优化问题。提出的模型将建筑物的热惯性作为一种灵活性潜力,这在现有的研究中经常被忽视。然后,对家庭参数组合进行蒙特卡罗模拟,然后对家庭级低价担保进行分位数回归预测。对德国9404户家庭配置的模拟表明,与静态电价相比,集成商管理的灵活性平均降低了7.36% (2.5 ct/kWh)的电价,78.4%的家庭的电价低于竞争性零售基准。与没有灵活性控制的情况相比,在所有分析的三年中,聚合商在每个家庭的基础上实现了更高的盈利能力。我们的研究结果表明,建筑参数,特别是热惯性,在很大程度上影响可用的灵活性潜力,应该被认为是家庭级担保合同设计的关键因素。该研究有助于理解和量化家庭动态电价的不确定性,旨在促进现代电力市场对家庭需求响应潜力的利用。
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引用次数: 0
Locational marginal emission rates calculation considering reserve requirements 考虑储备要求的区位边际排放率计算
IF 11 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-04-15 Epub Date: 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127439
Md Arifin Arif , Fengyu Wang , Di Shi , Liang Sun
As new policies are adopted to transition toward emission-free electricity, effective metrics are needed to accurately quantify emissions. Locational Marginal Emission Rates (LMERs) effectively capture the change in emissions associated with a change in demand. This paper introduces a computationally efficient LMER calculation algorithm that considers reserve requirements and network constraints in the economic dispatch model. Unlike locational marginal prices (LMPs), which can be directly derived from shadow prices expressed in $/MWh, calculating LMERs requires identifying marginal units that adjust their outputs in response to infinitesimal changes in system parameters. The LMER calculation algorithms also compute the incremental output changes of these marginal units and utilize these output changes, combined with the respective emission rates to compute LMERs accurately. However, the inclusion of reserve requirements, which are essential in modern electricity markets to address the uncertainties introduced by contingencies and significant intermittent generation, complicates identification of marginal units and calculation of their corresponding output changes in response to the locational demand changes. Thus calculating LMERs become increasingly complex. The proposed algorithm for the calculation of LMERs considering the reserve requirement systematically identifies marginal units and their corresponding output changes to calculate LMERs. This algorithm has been tested on both a four-bus system and a synthetic Texas Test System to show its efficiency and validate its accuracy. Furthermore, this algorithm is examined with different levels of reserve requirements and hence analyzes the impact of reserve requirements on marginal units and LMERs.
随着向零排放电力过渡的新政策的实施,需要有效的指标来准确量化排放。区位边际排放率(LMERs)有效地捕捉了与需求变化相关的排放变化。在经济调度模型中,提出了一种考虑备用需求和网络约束的计算效率较高的LMER计算算法。与可以直接从影子价格(以美元/兆瓦时表示)中得出的位置边际价格(LMPs)不同,计算LMERs需要确定边际单位,这些单位可以根据系统参数的微小变化调整其输出。LMER计算算法还计算这些边际单元的增量输出变化,并利用这些增量输出变化,结合各自的发射率精确计算LMER。然而,在现代电力市场中,储备要求是解决突发事件和大量间歇性发电所带来的不确定性所必需的,它使边际单位的确定和根据地点需求变化计算其相应的输出变化变得复杂。因此,计算lmer变得越来越复杂。本文提出的考虑准备金率的LMERs计算算法系统地识别边际单位及其对应的产出变化来计算LMERs。该算法在四总线系统和综合得克萨斯测试系统上进行了测试,验证了算法的有效性和准确性。在此基础上,对该算法进行了不同水平的准备金率检验,从而分析了准备金率对边际单位和最低市场成本的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Performance and feasibility assessment of a wave energy converter with underwater vehicle docking and charging 水下航行器对接充电波能转换器性能与可行性评估
IF 11 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-04-15 Epub Date: 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127453
David Okushemiya , Bryson Robertson , Curtis J. Rusch
Wave energy converters (WECs) offer a promising renewable solution to enable persistent unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) missions by supporting at-sea docking and recharging. However, integrated WEC–UUV systems remain under-studied, with no broadly applicable frameworks for assessing their long-term effectiveness and viability. This study addresses these gaps by developing two complementary and generalizable frameworks: (i) one for evaluating long-term WEC power performance under realistic, time-varying sea conditions, and (ii) another for assessing UUV docking feasibility. The frameworks were demonstrated using the field-deployed TigerRAY WEC–UUV system with 2024 wave data from NDBC buoy station 42,036 on the U.S. Atlantic South Coast. Power performance results showed that TigerRAY could sustain persistent UUV operations although it could not always guarantee uninterrupted recharging, with the BlueROV2 and REMUS100 completing 368 and 109 missions, respectively, compared with 2927 and 627 missions possible under an unlimited power source. This suggests the need for supplemental battery buffering or hybrid energy sources, where each kilowatt-hour of energy buffer added approximately 1.67 missions for BlueROV2 and 0.5 for REMUS100. Docking feasibility probability for BlueROV2 remained 1 (i.e., 100 % feasible) across all operational sea states, decreasing slightly to 0.7 under extremes (Hs=5 m), indicating that dock motions stayed within UUV motion limits, although actual docking success will ultimately depend on UUV control, sensing, and communication. These results demonstrate that WEC-UUV systems are technically viable, while the developed frameworks provide a generalizable foundation for performance assessment, design optimization, and system integration of future WEC–UUV technologies toward persistent autonomous ocean observation and intervention.
波浪能转换器(WECs)通过支持海上对接和充电,为无人水下航行器(UUV)的持久任务提供了一种有前途的可再生解决方案。然而,集成的WEC-UUV系统的研究仍然不足,没有广泛适用的框架来评估其长期有效性和可行性。本研究通过开发两个互补且可推广的框架来解决这些差距:(i)一个用于评估现实时变海况下WEC的长期功率性能,(ii)另一个用于评估UUV对接可行性。这些框架使用现场部署的TigerRAY WEC-UUV系统进行了演示,该系统使用了来自美国大西洋南海岸NDBC浮标站42,036的2024年波浪数据。动力性能结果表明,TigerRAY能够维持持续的UUV操作,尽管它不能总是保证不间断的充电,BlueROV2和REMUS100分别完成368和109个任务,而在无限电源下可能完成2927和627个任务。这表明需要补充电池缓冲或混合能源,其中每千瓦时的能量缓冲为BlueROV2增加约1.67次任务,为REMUS100增加0.5次任务。在所有运行海况下,BlueROV2的对接可行性概率保持为1(即100%可行性),在极端情况下(Hs=5 m)略微下降至0.7,这表明对接运动保持在UUV运动限制内,尽管实际对接成功最终取决于UUV控制、传感和通信。这些结果表明,wecu - uuv系统在技术上是可行的,而所开发的框架为未来wecu - uuv技术的性能评估、设计优化和系统集成提供了可推广的基础,以实现持续自主的海洋观测和干预。
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引用次数: 0
Decarbonization pathways of Hard-to-Abate sectors through hydrogen blending solutions 通过氢混合解决方案实现难减部门的脱碳途径
IF 11 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-04-15 Epub Date: 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127420
S. Mazzoni, M. Vellini, M. Gambini
Following up on European Regulatory plans towards carbon neutrality targets by exploiting cost-effective, reliable and easy-to-implement solutions based on hydrogen penetration in the Hard-to-Abate sectors are a challenge. Under this umbrella, the authors proposed a methodological approach to model the demand and supply of HTA sector needs (e.g. electricity, heat), integrated with proprietary databases of H2-specific production costs and related CO2 emission factors, and of HTA sectors (e.g. refinery, paper production, glass & steel manufacturing) specific consumptions (electricity, heat) and emissions per production unit. The authors presented an H2-CH4 blending model capable of assessing blended fuel CO2 emission factors and OPEX through maps. The first map shows that achieving a specific decarbonization target, as an example, 20% in respect of the current configuration, requires up to 70% blending of blue H2 (80 kg CO2/MWh emission factor) or only 50% blending of green H2 (near-zero CO2 emissions). The second map incorporates LCOH and Carbon Tax to evaluate economic feasibility. In a case study with CH4 priced at 70 EUR/MWh and CO2 Tax of 100 EUR/ton, green H2 remains costlier, while blue H2 blending leads to a slight OPEX reduction of 2 EUR/MWh, since Carbon Tax is applied. Thanks to these maps, a sensitivity analysis varying H2 blending fraction with CH4 has been performed for five HTA sectors, highlighting CO2 emissions reduction potential, up to 70% in the sectors with larger heat demands, such as Oil&Gas, and evaluating OPEX in respect to the reference scenario, showing that at the current CO2 Tax of almost 100 EUR/ton and for the actual LCOH the decarbonisation economic viability would require the support of regulation and environmental policies implementation.
在难以减少的行业中,通过利用成本效益高、可靠且易于实施的氢渗透解决方案,跟进欧洲监管计划,以实现碳中和目标,这是一项挑战。在此框架下,作者提出了一种方法方法来模拟HTA部门需求(如电力、热能)的需求和供给,并结合HTA部门(如炼油、造纸、玻璃和钢铁制造)的特定生产成本和相关二氧化碳排放因素的专有数据库,以及HTA部门(如炼油、造纸、玻璃和钢铁制造)的特定消耗(电力、热能)和每个生产单位的排放量。提出了一种能够通过地图评估混合燃料CO2排放因子和OPEX的H2-CH4混合模型。第一张地图显示,要实现特定的脱碳目标,例如,就目前的配置而言,20%的脱碳目标需要70%的蓝色H2(80千克二氧化碳/兆瓦时排放系数)或50%的绿色H2(接近零二氧化碳排放)的混合。第二张地图结合了LCOH和碳税来评估经济可行性。在CH4定价为70欧元/兆瓦时,二氧化碳税为100欧元/吨的案例研究中,绿色H2仍然更昂贵,而蓝色H2混合导致运营成本略微降低2欧元/兆瓦时,因为征收了碳税。得益于这些地图,我们对五个HTA行业进行了不同H2与CH4混合分数的敏感性分析,突出了二氧化碳减排潜力,在热需求较大的行业(如石油和天然气)减排潜力高达70%,并根据参考方案评估了运营成本。这表明,在目前二氧化碳税几乎为100欧元/吨的情况下,对于实际的LCOH,脱碳经济可行性需要监管和环境政策实施的支持。
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引用次数: 0
An incentivized cooperative scheme for transmission expansion in a 100% renewable Europe 在100%可再生能源的欧洲进行输电扩展的激励合作计划
IF 11 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-04-15 Epub Date: 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127415
Alessio Santecchia , Ivan Kantor , Rafael Castro-Amoedo
In the age of transformative European initiatives like the Green Deal, the electrification surge in mobility, heating, and services stands as a beacon towards carbon neutrality. This study illuminates the pivotal role of electrical grid interconnection in this monumental endeavor. Through a comparative analysis between isolated grids and an interconnected European system, we unveil the extraordinary potential of a collaborative grid: a 30 EUR/kWh (18%) reduction in electricity costs and a 12 gCO2eq/MWh (24%) decrease in environmental impact. The equitable distribution of this economic advantage across European nations allows us to establish the price nations ought to pay for the security of supply (96 EUR/MWh for Belgium) or, alternatively, the rightful compensation for providing cost-effective renewable energy (75 EUR/MWh for Sweden). Overall, the collaborative grid ushers in remarkable cost savings of 130 billion EUR annually, amounting to 174 EUR per European citizen. Furthermore, uncertainty analysis, grounded in a comprehensive literature review, reinforces the robustness of our findings. The transition towards a 100% renewable, interconnected European electricity grid over the next two decades necessitates an investment of 7 trillion EUR. In annual terms, this represents a manageable 4.2% of the European GDP. The payoff, however, is colossal: an 85% reduction in the environmental footprint of the European economy, equating to 2000 Mt of annually avoided CO2 emissions–a significant stride towards combating global climate change.
在“绿色协议”(Green Deal)等欧洲变革性倡议的时代,交通、供暖和服务领域的电气化激增,是迈向碳中和的灯塔。这项研究阐明了电网互联在这一巨大努力中的关键作用。通过对孤立电网和互联欧洲系统的比较分析,我们揭示了协作电网的非凡潜力:电力成本降低30欧元/千瓦时(18%),环境影响减少12克二氧化碳当量/兆瓦时(24%)。这种经济优势在欧洲各国之间的公平分配使我们能够确定各国应该为供应安全支付的价格(比利时为96欧元/兆瓦时),或者,或者,提供具有成本效益的可再生能源的合理补偿(瑞典为75欧元/兆瓦时)。总体而言,协同电网每年可节省1300亿欧元的成本,相当于每个欧洲公民节省174欧元。此外,基于全面文献回顾的不确定性分析加强了我们研究结果的稳健性。在未来20年向100%可再生、互联的欧洲电网过渡,需要7万亿欧元的投资。按年计算,这相当于欧洲GDP的4.2%。然而,回报是巨大的:欧洲经济的环境足迹减少了85%,相当于每年避免了2000亿吨的二氧化碳排放——这是对抗全球气候变化的重要一步。
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