Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-02-21DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127564
Ke Gong , Shiyun Wang , Chu Xiong , Sidun Fang , Zhiwei Wang , Jian Hu , Yuqin Huang , Yuanxiang Dong
Persistently high electricity prices in markets like the European Union and Japan significantly impede electric vehicle (EV) adoption by eroding their operational cost advantage, thus jeopardizing transportation decarbonization targets. This study proposes a novel market-based strategy: Bundling EVs with off-grid wind energy generators (WEGs), grounded in product bundling theory. We develop a multi-agent sequential game model to analyze the interactions between a profit-maximizing manufacturer and cost-minimizing consumers, incorporating the dual uncertainties of wind generation and driving demand. The model is calibrated using real-world data from France and the United States. Results demonstrate that the bundling model promotes EV adoption when the utility premium outweighs the WEG cost, particularly under high electricity prices and favorable wind conditions. Specifically, by reducing effective charging costs through self-consumption in markets such as France and the United States, deploying a spatially optimized 2 kW WEG boosts EV adoption by 7–10% and increases corporate profits by 18–30% relative to standalone sales. Moreover, this strategy aligns economic and environmental objectives, achieving substantial life-cycle emission reductions of 25–28%. Consequently, this bundling strategy mitigates adoption barriers while concurrently leveraging EVs as storage and WEGs for off-grid generation to advance zero‑carbon transportation
{"title":"Bundling electric vehicles with off-grid wind power: A strategy for high-electricity-Price markets","authors":"Ke Gong , Shiyun Wang , Chu Xiong , Sidun Fang , Zhiwei Wang , Jian Hu , Yuqin Huang , Yuanxiang Dong","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127564","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127564","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Persistently high electricity prices in markets like the European Union and Japan significantly impede electric vehicle (EV) adoption by eroding their operational cost advantage, thus jeopardizing transportation decarbonization targets. This study proposes a novel market-based strategy: Bundling EVs with off-grid wind energy generators (WEGs), grounded in product bundling theory. We develop a multi-agent sequential game model to analyze the interactions between a profit-maximizing manufacturer and cost-minimizing consumers, incorporating the dual uncertainties of wind generation and driving demand. The model is calibrated using real-world data from France and the United States. Results demonstrate that the bundling model promotes EV adoption when the utility premium outweighs the WEG cost, particularly under high electricity prices and favorable wind conditions. Specifically, by reducing effective charging costs through self-consumption in markets such as France and the United States, deploying a spatially optimized 2 kW WEG boosts EV adoption by 7–10% and increases corporate profits by 18–30% relative to standalone sales. Moreover, this strategy aligns economic and environmental objectives, achieving substantial life-cycle emission reductions of 25–28%. Consequently, this bundling strategy mitigates adoption barriers while concurrently leveraging EVs as storage and WEGs for off-grid generation to advance zero‑carbon transportation</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"410 ","pages":"Article 127564"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147386280","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-02-20DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127562
Antonio Karneluti, Petar Lovrić, Mario Vašak
With the rising share of intermittent renewable energy in the energy mix, there is a growing need for the employment of demand side management. End consumption/production power grid nodes should, in the future, participate in the power system balancing market with the demand response service provision. This paper introduces a joint optimization framework for the day-ahead scheduling of a renewable energy hub that simultaneously determines nominal operational behaviour and bidirectional (positive and negative) explicit demand response capacity. The probabilities of flexibility contracting are considered in the objective function, such that the expectation of the operational cost for interaction with the power system is minimised. Scenarios of multiple activations during the day are taken into account through joint optimization in the worst-case sense of all possible flexibility activation scenarios. The formulation utilises Linear Programming (LP), ensuring global optimality and high computational efficiency. Case studies involving an industrial plant and a power-to-X hub demonstrate significant expected operational cost reductions of 31% and 17%, respectively, compared to standard deterministic scheduling. A free software tool that implements the outlined procedure is provided.
{"title":"Optimal day-ahead scheduling for explicit demand response provision of a renewable energy hub with hot water preparation","authors":"Antonio Karneluti, Petar Lovrić, Mario Vašak","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127562","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127562","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the rising share of intermittent renewable energy in the energy mix, there is a growing need for the employment of demand side management. End consumption/production power grid nodes should, in the future, participate in the power system balancing market with the demand response service provision. This paper introduces a joint optimization framework for the day-ahead scheduling of a renewable energy hub that simultaneously determines nominal operational behaviour and bidirectional (positive and negative) explicit demand response capacity. The probabilities of flexibility contracting are considered in the objective function, such that the expectation of the operational cost for interaction with the power system is minimised. Scenarios of multiple activations during the day are taken into account through joint optimization in the worst-case sense of all possible flexibility activation scenarios. The formulation utilises Linear Programming (LP), ensuring global optimality and high computational efficiency. Case studies involving an industrial plant and a power-to-X hub demonstrate significant expected operational cost reductions of 31% and 17%, respectively, compared to standard deterministic scheduling. A free software tool that implements the outlined procedure is provided.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"410 ","pages":"Article 127562"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147385958","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-02-12DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127529
Mingyuan Pang , Min Yang , Haohao Zhang , Zhen Kong , Laixin Hong , Yingxin Guo , Yen Leng Pak , Zifan Wang , Jiajia Ye , Jibin Song , Juan An
The increasing need for sophisticated energy storage solutions that integrate high energy density, high power density, and extended cycle life has propelled the advancement of hybrid devices like lithium/sodium-ion capacitors (LICs/SICs). These devices combine battery-type and capacitor-type electrodes to address the performance disparity between traditional batteries and supercapacitors. However, the fundamental kinetic imbalance and interfacial instability between Faradaic and non-Faradaic electrodes continue to pose significant challenges to realizing their complete potential. In this context, this review thoroughly outlines the latest advancements in defect engineering approaches aimed at improving the electrochemical performance of LICs and SICs electrode materials. Specifically, through the systematic tailoring of vacancies (such as oxygen, cation, and anion vacancies), heteroatom doping (including N, F, S), and interfacial defects, significant improvements have been made in electronic conductivity, ion diffusion, the introduction of additional active sites, and structural stability. Furthermore, the review examines the essential mechanisms by which these defects influence charge storage behavior and the interactions between electrodes and electrolytes, thereby highlighting their significance in enhancing pseudocapacitive contributions and reducing degradation. Finally, the review underscores ongoing challenges in defect control, scalability, and mechanistic understanding, while delineating future directions focused on achieving precise defect manipulation and practical application. By offering a comprehensive examination of defect-enabled material design, this review intends to steer the advancement of high-performance LICs and SICs that can satisfy the demands of future energy storage systems.
{"title":"Defect engineering for high-performance lithium/sodium-ion capacitor electrodes: mechanisms, advances, and future perspectives","authors":"Mingyuan Pang , Min Yang , Haohao Zhang , Zhen Kong , Laixin Hong , Yingxin Guo , Yen Leng Pak , Zifan Wang , Jiajia Ye , Jibin Song , Juan An","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127529","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127529","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The increasing need for sophisticated energy storage solutions that integrate high energy density, high power density, and extended cycle life has propelled the advancement of hybrid devices like lithium/sodium-ion capacitors (LICs/SICs). These devices combine battery-type and capacitor-type electrodes to address the performance disparity between traditional batteries and supercapacitors. However, the fundamental kinetic imbalance and interfacial instability between Faradaic and non-Faradaic electrodes continue to pose significant challenges to realizing their complete potential. In this context, this review thoroughly outlines the latest advancements in defect engineering approaches aimed at improving the electrochemical performance of LICs and SICs electrode materials. Specifically, through the systematic tailoring of vacancies (such as oxygen, cation, and anion vacancies), heteroatom doping (including N, F, S), and interfacial defects, significant improvements have been made in electronic conductivity, ion diffusion, the introduction of additional active sites, and structural stability. Furthermore, the review examines the essential mechanisms by which these defects influence charge storage behavior and the interactions between electrodes and electrolytes, thereby highlighting their significance in enhancing pseudocapacitive contributions and reducing degradation. Finally, the review underscores ongoing challenges in defect control, scalability, and mechanistic understanding, while delineating future directions focused on achieving precise defect manipulation and practical application. By offering a comprehensive examination of defect-enabled material design, this review intends to steer the advancement of high-performance LICs and SICs that can satisfy the demands of future energy storage systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"410 ","pages":"Article 127529"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147386146","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-02-24DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127572
Jiaqi Qu , Pengyuan Ma , Qiang Sun , Xiaogang Wu , Weigui Zhang , Zhao Yang Dong , Bin Li
Recently, photovoltaic (PV) arrays fault diagnosis technology has advanced rapidly. However, existing PV array fault diagnosis models typically rely on large datasets collected under specific array configurations. Operating on the premise that training and testing data follow the same distribution, these algorithms fail to address feature distribution discrepancies caused by varying array configurations, resulting in poor transferability and limited generalization when applied to unseen arrays with different structural topologies or PV modules. To address this, considering inter-array relationships, this study proposes a novel fault diagnosis method for cross-array scenarios, i.e., mixup-enhanced domain adversarial network (MDAN). To our knowledge, this study represents an early investigation into unsupervised model transfer across heterogeneous PV arrays to mitigate the resultant domain shifts. The method features three key innovations. First, a two-dimensional Gram feature matrix (2D-GFM) encoding method based on endpoint-dense resampling is designed to extract fault-related similarities from I-V curves. Second, a dual-objective adversarial framework is established, utilizing a Gradient Reversal Layer (GRL) to align feature distributions between the source (labeled) and target (unlabeled) domains. Third, a feature-wise mixup layer is integrated to enhance the decision boundary's robustness against inter-domain variations. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method effectively handles scenarios with extremely scarce, unlabeled target- domain samples and enables robust cross-domain transfer across arrays of diverse configurations (e.g., 3 × 4, 2 × 8, 5 × 5, etc.), outperforming existing methods in accuracy and reliability.
{"title":"Cross-array fault diagnosis of photovoltaic arrays with different configurations based on endpoint-dense gram feature encoding and mixup-enhanced domain adversarial network","authors":"Jiaqi Qu , Pengyuan Ma , Qiang Sun , Xiaogang Wu , Weigui Zhang , Zhao Yang Dong , Bin Li","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127572","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127572","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recently, photovoltaic (PV) arrays fault diagnosis technology has advanced rapidly. However, existing PV array fault diagnosis models typically rely on large datasets collected under specific array configurations. Operating on the premise that training and testing data follow the same distribution, these algorithms fail to address feature distribution discrepancies caused by varying array configurations, resulting in poor transferability and limited generalization when applied to unseen arrays with different structural topologies or PV modules. To address this, considering inter-array relationships, this study proposes a novel fault diagnosis method for cross-array scenarios, i.e., mixup-enhanced domain adversarial network (MDAN). To our knowledge, this study represents an early investigation into unsupervised model transfer across heterogeneous PV arrays to mitigate the resultant domain shifts. The method features three key innovations. First, a two-dimensional Gram feature matrix (2D-GFM) encoding method based on endpoint-dense resampling is designed to extract fault-related similarities from I-V curves. Second, a dual-objective adversarial framework is established, utilizing a Gradient Reversal Layer (GRL) to align feature distributions between the source (labeled) and target (unlabeled) domains. Third, a feature-wise mixup layer is integrated to enhance the decision boundary's robustness against inter-domain variations. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method effectively handles scenarios with extremely scarce, unlabeled target- domain samples and enables robust cross-domain transfer across arrays of diverse configurations (e.g., 3 × 4, 2 × 8, 5 × 5, etc.), outperforming existing methods in accuracy and reliability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"410 ","pages":"Article 127572"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147386163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-02-25DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127598
Laura Gómez, Isabel Martínez, Ramón Murillo
Producing synthetic natural gas (SNG) from renewable sources is crucial for decarbonising the energy system, as it provides a storable, dispatchable energy carrier that complements intermittent renewable electricity while enabling the substitution of fossil-derived natural gas through existing storage and distribution infrastructures. This study employed the sorption-enhanced methanation (SEM) process to upgrade biogas to high-purity methane, using a commercial Ni-based catalyst and an LTA zeolite (4 A). Experiments were conducted in a TRL-3 laboratory-scale fixed-bed reactor under three configurations, namely conventional, polytropic (poly-H2 and poly-biogas) and stratified beds. The conventional configuration yielded the best overall performance, achieving 100 vol%. CH4 purity, full CO2 conversion and 100% selectivity under optimal conditions (225 °C, 9.5 bar and a H2/CO2 feed ratio of 4:1). Polytropic feeding reduced hot spots, but limited H2O adsorption. This resulted in shorter pre-breakthrough times (24 min) and lower CH4 purities (96.7–99.2 vol%.). The stratified configuration yielded similar conversions, but suffered from higher local temperatures (up to 287 °C) and shorter breakthrough times (26 min). Optimization of regeneration conditions confirmed complete zeolite recovery using a PSA step of 30 min with a purge flow of 400 Nl/h. Stability tests over 11 cycles demonstrated that the catalyst–adsorbent system maintained its kinetic and adsorptive properties, supporting the robustness of the SEM process. Overall, these findings validate SEM as a promising, scalable strategy for producing renewable methane from biogas.
{"title":"Biogas-to-methane conversion via sorption-enhanced methanation: experimental evaluation of reactor configuration strategies","authors":"Laura Gómez, Isabel Martínez, Ramón Murillo","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127598","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127598","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Producing synthetic natural gas (SNG) from renewable sources is crucial for decarbonising the energy system, as it provides a storable, dispatchable energy carrier that complements intermittent renewable electricity while enabling the substitution of fossil-derived natural gas through existing storage and distribution infrastructures. This study employed the sorption-enhanced methanation (SEM) process to upgrade biogas to high-purity methane, using a commercial Ni-based catalyst and an LTA zeolite (4 A). Experiments were conducted in a TRL-3 laboratory-scale fixed-bed reactor under three configurations, namely conventional, polytropic (poly-H<sub>2</sub> and poly-biogas) and stratified beds. The conventional configuration yielded the best overall performance, achieving 100 vol%. CH<sub>4</sub> purity, full CO<sub>2</sub> conversion and 100% selectivity under optimal conditions (225 °C, 9.5 bar and a H<sub>2</sub>/CO<sub>2</sub> feed ratio of 4:1). Polytropic feeding reduced hot spots, but limited H<sub>2</sub>O adsorption. This resulted in shorter pre-breakthrough times (24 min) and lower CH<sub>4</sub> purities (96.7–99.2 vol%.). The stratified configuration yielded similar conversions, but suffered from higher local temperatures (up to 287 °C) and shorter breakthrough times (26 min). Optimization of regeneration conditions confirmed complete zeolite recovery using a PSA step of 30 min with a purge flow of 400 Nl/h. Stability tests over 11 cycles demonstrated that the catalyst–adsorbent system maintained its kinetic and adsorptive properties, supporting the robustness of the SEM process. Overall, these findings validate SEM as a promising, scalable strategy for producing renewable methane from biogas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"410 ","pages":"Article 127598"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147386167","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-02-24DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127575
Berk Sahin, Erhan Kutanoglu
Climate change influences weather, with particular concern around rising temperatures, which in turn affect electric power supply and demand. These impacts require consideration of evolving weather patterns in power system planning. In addition to rising temperatures, extreme weather events, such as heat waves, drive even higher demand and have the potential to reduce available supply, making it significantly more challenging to satisfy the demand. Hence, long-term power system planning approaches may benefit from the inclusion of these extreme heat events. Capacity expansion planning is used to understand system changes needed to maintain a reliable grid against future demands and regulations. It can be used to plan for a future grid topology that is reliable under normal conditions during a future climate, and resilient in heat waves, expected to be more severe with a changing climate. In this paper, we integrate climate change effects on the power system into capacity expansion planning to consider resilience. We analyze the impact of climate change on capacity expansion decisions, considering its effects in both normal and extreme heat conditions. We account for projected demand growth due to population increases and electrification, as well as hourly and seasonal variations in supply and demand due to weather conditions. We consider two mathematical models: one for climate-aware capacity expansion planning, and one for the evaluation of the decisions of the planning model. We conduct our analysis considering two SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways)-RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) combinations, SSP1-RCP2.6 (SSP126) and SSP3-RCP7.0 (SSP370), representing optimistic and upper-middle emissions scenarios, respectively, and compare them against a case with no climate change. We test our proposed formulation on a synthetic test system representative of the Texas grid, compare the expansion needs across various climate change scenarios, and examine the differences in optimal expansion strategies. Our findings show that incorporating climate change into capacity expansion planning can significantly reduce load shedding during heat waves, with only a slight increase in expansion costs. Hence, our results suggest that planning under the severe climate change scenario may represent an effective strategy.
{"title":"Climate-aware capacity expansion planning for power grids exposed to heat waves","authors":"Berk Sahin, Erhan Kutanoglu","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127575","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127575","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change influences weather, with particular concern around rising temperatures, which in turn affect electric power supply and demand. These impacts require consideration of evolving weather patterns in power system planning. In addition to rising temperatures, extreme weather events, such as heat waves, drive even higher demand and have the potential to reduce available supply, making it significantly more challenging to satisfy the demand. Hence, long-term power system planning approaches may benefit from the inclusion of these extreme heat events. Capacity expansion planning is used to understand system changes needed to maintain a reliable grid against future demands and regulations. It can be used to plan for a future grid topology that is reliable under normal conditions during a future climate, and resilient in heat waves, expected to be more severe with a changing climate. In this paper, we integrate climate change effects on the power system into capacity expansion planning to consider resilience. We analyze the impact of climate change on capacity expansion decisions, considering its effects in both normal and extreme heat conditions. We account for projected demand growth due to population increases and electrification, as well as hourly and seasonal variations in supply and demand due to weather conditions. We consider two mathematical models: one for climate-aware capacity expansion planning, and one for the evaluation of the decisions of the planning model. We conduct our analysis considering two SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways)-RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) combinations, SSP1-RCP2.6 (SSP126) and SSP3-RCP7.0 (SSP370), representing optimistic and upper-middle emissions scenarios, respectively, and compare them against a case with no climate change. We test our proposed formulation on a synthetic test system representative of the Texas grid, compare the expansion needs across various climate change scenarios, and examine the differences in optimal expansion strategies. Our findings show that incorporating climate change into capacity expansion planning can significantly reduce load shedding during heat waves, with only a slight increase in expansion costs. Hence, our results suggest that planning under the severe climate change scenario may represent an effective strategy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"410 ","pages":"Article 127575"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147386226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-02-26DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127599
Cyril Voyant , Milan Despotovic , Luis Garcia-Gutierrez , Mohammed Asloune , Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan , Jean-Laurent Duchaud , Ghjuvan Antone Faggianelli , Elena Magliaro
A multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) extreme learning machine () is introduced for short-term forecasting of seven grid variables in Corsica (France): total demand and generation from solar, wind, hydropower, thermal, bioenergy, and imports. Based on six years of hourly data, the model integrates sliding windows and cyclic time encodings to handle non-stationarity and seasonal effects without heavy preprocessing. At a 1-hour horizon, solar and thermal achieve of and with , while total demand forecasts remain reliable up to 5 h ahead. Wind and bioenergy remain challenging due to high intrinsic variability, but overall accuracy is robust across sources. Compared with persistence and an configured under realistic tuning budgets, consistently improves skill, offering small but stable gains over Single-Input Single-Output models (). Beyond accuracy, the closed-form solution ensures fast training and suitability for real-time updates, enabling potential use in online learning contexts. A key advantage of the formulation is internal coherence between aggregate demand and its components, an important requirement for operators. The methodology adapts to local constraints such as grid characteristics, resource availability, and market structures, ensuring transferability beyond the Corsican case. The study shows that a parsimonious approach such as can deliver forecasts that are accurate, coherent, and computationally efficient, providing a practical decision-support tool for energy management and renewable integration.
{"title":"Short-term forecasting of energy production and consumption using extreme learning machine: A comprehensive MIMO based ELM approach","authors":"Cyril Voyant , Milan Despotovic , Luis Garcia-Gutierrez , Mohammed Asloune , Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan , Jean-Laurent Duchaud , Ghjuvan Antone Faggianelli , Elena Magliaro","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127599","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127599","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A multiple-input multiple-output (<span>MIMO</span>) extreme learning machine (<span><math><mrow><mi>ELM</mi></mrow></math></span>) is introduced for short-term forecasting of seven grid variables in Corsica (France): total demand and generation from solar, wind, hydropower, thermal, bioenergy, and imports. Based on six years of hourly data, the model integrates sliding windows and cyclic time encodings to handle non-stationarity and seasonal effects without heavy preprocessing. At a 1-hour horizon, solar and thermal achieve <span><math><mrow><mi>nRMSE</mi></mrow></math></span> of <span><math><mn>0.179</mn></math></span> and <span><math><mn>0.051</mn></math></span> with <span><math><msup><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msup><mo>></mo><mn>0.98</mn></math></span>, while total demand forecasts remain reliable up to 5 h ahead. Wind and bioenergy remain challenging due to high intrinsic variability, but overall accuracy is robust across sources. Compared with persistence and an <span><math><mrow><mi>LSTM</mi></mrow></math></span> configured under realistic tuning budgets, <span><math><mrow><mi>MIMO</mi><mo>−</mo><mi>ELM</mi></mrow></math></span> consistently improves skill, offering small but stable gains over Single-Input Single-Output models (<span><math><mrow><mi>SISO</mi></mrow></math></span>). Beyond accuracy, the closed-form solution ensures fast training and suitability for real-time updates, enabling potential use in online learning contexts. A key advantage of the <span><math><mrow><mi>MIMO</mi></mrow></math></span> formulation is internal coherence between aggregate demand and its components, an important requirement for operators. The methodology adapts to local constraints such as grid characteristics, resource availability, and market structures, ensuring transferability beyond the Corsican case. The study shows that a parsimonious approach such as <span><math><mrow><mi>MIMO</mi><mo>−</mo><mi>ELM</mi></mrow></math></span> can deliver forecasts that are accurate, coherent, and computationally efficient, providing a practical decision-support tool for energy management and renewable integration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"410 ","pages":"Article 127599"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147386169","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-02-18DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127557
Yuan Gao , Zehuan Hu , Junichiro Otomo , Yan Ke
Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems often operate with scarce fault labels and limited computational resources, posing challenges for reliable fault detection and diagnosis (FDD). Existing FDD studies largely rely on fully supervised data or post-hoc alarm aggregation, treat FDD as static classification without considering temporal dependencies, and employ complex backbones without evaluating deployment efficiency. Moreover, common contrastive learning (CL) augmentations such as scaling or permutation violate HVAC physical constraints, erasing magnitude anomalies critical for diagnosis. To address these limitations, this study reframes HVAC FDD as a multivariate time-series representation learning problem and proposes a contrastive self-supervised framework coupling a lightweight temporal encoder with a compact classifier. A physics-consistent strategy—combining timestamp masking and partially overlapping cropping—constructs positive pairs without destroying magnitude or channel semantics, while a hierarchical dual contrastive loss aligns same-timestamp embeddings and separates cross-sequence states across multiple resolutions. The resulting encoder–SVM architecture explicitly targets deployability, achieving high diagnostic accuracy with up to 90–97% less memory and 20–25% faster training than Transformer baselines. Experiments on the MZVAV AHU dataset with rigorous day-level splits show consistent superiority over recurrent, linear, and Transformer-based models, improving diagnostic accuracy by 20–30% and macro-F1 by 40–50%. This work delivers a label-efficient, physics-consistent, and deployment-ready framework for automated FDD in real-time building management systems.
{"title":"Contrastive self-supervised learning for lightweight and automated fault detection and diagnosis in HVAC systems","authors":"Yuan Gao , Zehuan Hu , Junichiro Otomo , Yan Ke","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127557","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127557","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems often operate with scarce fault labels and limited computational resources, posing challenges for reliable fault detection and diagnosis (FDD). Existing FDD studies largely rely on fully supervised data or post-hoc alarm aggregation, treat FDD as static classification without considering temporal dependencies, and employ complex backbones without evaluating deployment efficiency. Moreover, common contrastive learning (CL) augmentations such as scaling or permutation violate HVAC physical constraints, erasing magnitude anomalies critical for diagnosis. To address these limitations, this study reframes HVAC FDD as a multivariate time-series representation learning problem and proposes a contrastive self-supervised framework coupling a lightweight temporal encoder with a compact classifier. A physics-consistent strategy—combining timestamp masking and partially overlapping cropping—constructs positive pairs without destroying magnitude or channel semantics, while a hierarchical dual contrastive loss aligns same-timestamp embeddings and separates cross-sequence states across multiple resolutions. The resulting encoder–SVM architecture explicitly targets deployability, achieving high diagnostic accuracy with up to 90–97% less memory and 20–25% faster training than Transformer baselines. Experiments on the MZVAV AHU dataset with rigorous day-level splits show consistent superiority over recurrent, linear, and Transformer-based models, improving diagnostic accuracy by 20–30% and macro-F1 by 40–50%. This work delivers a label-efficient, physics-consistent, and deployment-ready framework for automated FDD in real-time building management systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"410 ","pages":"Article 127557"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147386279","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The window-to-wall ratio (WWR) is an important part of building behavior. However, WWR data is not publicly available in most countries. This study proposes a rapid and automated method for estimating the WWR of large-scale buildings using Google Street View (GSV) imagery and computer vision techniques. In contrast to conventional approaches based on field surveys, drawing analysis, or manual modeling, this study offers a scalable and efficient framework that can replace labor-intensive processes. WWR was estimated for 15,740 buildings in a metropolitan district of Seoul, and the entire process was completed in 6 h. The accuracy of WWR estimation was evaluated using manual labeling on 100 building images. As manual calculation of actual WWR is difficult at a large scale, its validity was indirectly assessed based on the change in UBEM accuracy. The estimated WWR showed a median of 17.0%, with significant variation across primary building uses. When all estimated values were used as input, UBEM prediction accuracy improved by 7.42%, increasing to 35.83% for buildings in which the inclusion of estimated WWR improved UBEM accuracy. When envelope area information was used in addition to WWR, prediction accuracy improved by 9.22% for all buildings and by 41.33% for those with improved UBEM accuracy. In the improved buildings, higher WWR led to greater improvements in prediction accuracy. The median improvement was 16.14% for the 30–40% WWR range, 21.49% for 40–50%, and 30.25% for WWR over 50%. Occlusion, glare, low contrast, and image stitching errors were major issues hindering accurate WWR estimation. In addition, the tolerance limits of these four issues were quantified. This study proposes a framework that automatically estimates WWR, incorporates it into UBEM, and indirectly validates the estimates through changes in UBEM accuracy, enhancing the accuracy of urban-scale energy modeling.
{"title":"Urban-scale estimation of window-to-wall ratio from street view imagery via computer vision for improved building energy modeling","authors":"Jaehyun Yoo , Sebin Choi , Donghyuk Yi , Sungmin Yoon","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127549","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127549","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The window-to-wall ratio (WWR) is an important part of building behavior. However, WWR data is not publicly available in most countries. This study proposes a rapid and automated method for estimating the WWR of large-scale buildings using Google Street View (GSV) imagery and computer vision techniques. In contrast to conventional approaches based on field surveys, drawing analysis, or manual modeling, this study offers a scalable and efficient framework that can replace labor-intensive processes. WWR was estimated for 15,740 buildings in a metropolitan district of Seoul, and the entire process was completed in 6 h. The accuracy of WWR estimation was evaluated using manual labeling on 100 building images. As manual calculation of actual WWR is difficult at a large scale, its validity was indirectly assessed based on the change in UBEM accuracy. The estimated WWR showed a median of 17.0%, with significant variation across primary building uses. When all estimated values were used as input, UBEM prediction accuracy improved by 7.42%, increasing to 35.83% for buildings in which the inclusion of estimated WWR improved UBEM accuracy. When envelope area information was used in addition to WWR, prediction accuracy improved by 9.22% for all buildings and by 41.33% for those with improved UBEM accuracy. In the improved buildings, higher WWR led to greater improvements in prediction accuracy. The median improvement was 16.14% for the 30–40% WWR range, 21.49% for 40–50%, and 30.25% for WWR over 50%. Occlusion, glare, low contrast, and image stitching errors were major issues hindering accurate WWR estimation. In addition, the tolerance limits of these four issues were quantified. This study proposes a framework that automatically estimates WWR, incorporates it into UBEM, and indirectly validates the estimates through changes in UBEM accuracy, enhancing the accuracy of urban-scale energy modeling.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"410 ","pages":"Article 127549"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147386282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-02-16DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127551
Ugochukwu Ngwaka , Shunmin Zhu , Janie Ling-Chin , Kumar Vijayalakshmi Shivaprasad , Song Hu , Andrew Smallbone , Anthony Paul Roskilly
This study investigated the integration of a Cryogenic Closed-cycle Free-piston Linear Joule Engine Generator (CCFLJEG) into a 100-kW hydrogen fuel cell truck to recover and convert cryogenic hydrogen cold energy into electricity. At 100% load and a hydrogen flow rate of 1.4 g/s, the CCFLJEG produced up to 2.9 kW of additional electrical power. Approximately 27% of the liquid hydrogen (LH2) regasification enthalpy was directly absorbed by helium in the cold heat exchanger, while a further 48.9% was indirectly utilised by enhancing hot-side energy recovery, giving an overall cold-energy utilisation of 76.2%. The system reduced annual energy demand from 131.04 MWh to 124.25 MWh (5.2% decrease), equivalent to a hydrogen saving of 333.3 kg. These results demonstrate that coupling CCFLJEG with fuel cell trucks provides an efficient pathway for exploiting cryogenic exergy while improving vehicle-scale energy efficiency. Economic analysis indicated that, when powered by green liquid hydrogen, the system achieved a net present value (NPV) of £23,355 and a payback time (PBT) of 0.7 years. With grey hydrogen, the PBT remained favourable at 1.4 years. Sensitivity analysis identified hydrogen purchase price as the most influential factor affecting NPV, while the capital cost of the CCFLJEG had the strongest influence on PBT. The findings indicated a positive outlook on the technical and economic viability of integrating CCFLJEG in fuel cell trucks, suggesting that it could offer a promising approach to improving energy efficiency and reducing hydrogen consumption in heavy-duty transport applications.
{"title":"Cryogenic closed-cycle linear engine integration for cold energy recovery in fuel cell trucks","authors":"Ugochukwu Ngwaka , Shunmin Zhu , Janie Ling-Chin , Kumar Vijayalakshmi Shivaprasad , Song Hu , Andrew Smallbone , Anthony Paul Roskilly","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127551","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.127551","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigated the integration of a Cryogenic Closed-cycle Free-piston Linear Joule Engine Generator (CCFLJEG) into a 100-kW hydrogen fuel cell truck to recover and convert cryogenic hydrogen cold energy into electricity. At 100% load and a hydrogen flow rate of 1.4 g/s, the CCFLJEG produced up to 2.9 kW of additional electrical power. Approximately 27% of the liquid hydrogen (LH<sub>2</sub>) regasification enthalpy was directly absorbed by helium in the cold heat exchanger, while a further 48.9% was indirectly utilised by enhancing hot-side energy recovery, giving an overall cold-energy utilisation of 76.2%. The system reduced annual energy demand from 131.04 MWh to 124.25 MWh (5.2% decrease), equivalent to a hydrogen saving of 333.3 kg. These results demonstrate that coupling CCFLJEG with fuel cell trucks provides an efficient pathway for exploiting cryogenic exergy while improving vehicle-scale energy efficiency. Economic analysis indicated that, when powered by green liquid hydrogen, the system achieved a net present value (NPV) of £23,355 and a payback time (PBT) of 0.7 years. With grey hydrogen, the PBT remained favourable at 1.4 years. Sensitivity analysis identified hydrogen purchase price as the most influential factor affecting NPV, while the capital cost of the CCFLJEG had the strongest influence on PBT. The findings indicated a positive outlook on the technical and economic viability of integrating CCFLJEG in fuel cell trucks, suggesting that it could offer a promising approach to improving energy efficiency and reducing hydrogen consumption in heavy-duty transport applications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"410 ","pages":"Article 127551"},"PeriodicalIF":11.0,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147386032","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}