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Adaptive step size quantized simulation method for gas–electricity integrated energy systems 气电一体化能源系统的自适应步长量化模拟方法
IF 10.1 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123785
Peng Li , Yunpeng Fei , Hao Yu , Haoran Ji , Juan Li , Jing Xu , Guanyu Song , Jinli Zhao

Gas–electricity integrated energy systems (GE-IES) offers a promising solution for enhancing energy efficiency and accommodating renewable energy sources. Accurate dynamic simulation is essential for optimizing and controlling GE-IES. However, the presence of various local controllers introduces prominent discrete characteristics, posing challenges for the dynamic simulation of the GE-IES. This paper investigates the dynamic simulation method in GE-IES with discrete characteristics. Firstly, we propose an adaptive step size simulation method based on quantized state system theory. This method maintains the event-driven characteristics of the quantized state integration algorithms, while enhancing computational speed through adaptive step size adjustments. Secondly, we establish an event-driven simulation framework that facilitates interactions of different subsystems during the dynamic simulation, improving the compatibility with various models and solving algorithms. Finally, we validate the accuracy, efficiency, and scalability of the proposed method and the framework using two typical GE-IES cases with different scales. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness on the dynamic simulation of GE-IES and highlight the feasibility of natural gas networks in consuming and storing surplus renewable energy.

气电一体化能源系统(GE-IS)为提高能源效率和适应可再生能源提供了一种前景广阔的解决方案。精确的动态模拟对于优化和控制气电一体化能源系统至关重要。然而,各种本地控制器的存在带来了突出的离散特性,给 GE-IES 的动态模拟带来了挑战。本文研究了具有离散特性的 GE-IES 的动态模拟方法。首先,我们提出了一种基于量化状态系统理论的自适应步长仿真方法。该方法保持了量化状态积分算法的事件驱动特性,同时通过自适应步长调整提高了计算速度。其次,我们建立了一个事件驱动仿真框架,促进了动态仿真过程中不同子系统之间的交互,提高了与各种模型和求解算法的兼容性。最后,我们使用两个不同规模的典型 GE-IES 案例验证了所提方法和框架的准确性、效率和可扩展性。仿真结果证明了 GE-IES 动态仿真的有效性,并强调了天然气网络在消耗和储存剩余可再生能源方面的可行性。
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引用次数: 0
Efficient wind energy integration in weak AC Grid with a DLMF-based adaptive approach 采用基于 DLMF 的自适应方法在弱交流电网中高效整合风能
IF 10.1 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123779
Gajendra Singh Chawda , Abdul Gafoor Shaik , Wencong Su

Power quality issues in weak grids with large impedance pose significant challenges that limit wind energy (WE) penetration levels and the performance efficiency of existing WE infrastructure. The presence of non-linear (NL) loads at the point of common coupling (PCC) further restricts these levels. This paper addresses these challenges by introducing an additional distributed static compensator (DSTATCOM) at the PCC, controlled by a higher-order Delayed Least Mean Fourth (DLMF) algorithm. The proposed DLMF control algorithm estimates the active and reactive components of the load current by updating their respective weights with appropriate delays, considering variations in loads, DC-link voltage, and wind energy generation. The MATLAB implementation of the proposed control is designed and validated through experimental investigations. These investigations involve varying short circuit ratios, wind speeds, and the presence of NL loads. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can enhance wind penetration levels in weak grids by up to 30%.

阻抗大的弱电网中的电能质量问题构成了重大挑战,限制了风能(WE)的渗透水平和现有风能基础设施的性能效率。共同耦合点 (PCC) 上非线性 (NL) 负载的存在进一步限制了这些水平。本文通过在 PCC 引入额外的分布式静态补偿器 (DSTATCOM),并采用高阶延迟最小均值第四算法 (DLMF) 进行控制,来应对这些挑战。考虑到负载、直流链路电压和风能发电量的变化,所提出的 DLMF 控制算法通过适当延迟更新各自权重来估计负载电流的有功和无功分量。通过实验研究,设计并验证了拟议控制的 MATLAB 实现。这些研究涉及不同的短路比、风速和 NL 负载的存在。结果表明,所提出的方法可将弱电网中的风能渗透水平提高 30%。
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引用次数: 0
Visibility-enhanced model-free deep reinforcement learning algorithm for voltage control in realistic distribution systems using smart inverters 使用智能逆变器在现实配电系统中进行电压控制的可见性增强型无模型深度强化学习算法
IF 10.1 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123758
Yansong Pei , Ketian Ye , Junbo Zhao , Yiyun Yao , Tong Su , Fei Ding

Increasing integration of distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) into distribution networks could result in adverse effects on grid operation. Traditional model-based control algorithms require accurate model information that is difficult to acquire and thus are challenging to implement in practice. This paper proposes a surrogate model-enabled grid visibility scheme to empower deep reinforcement learning (DRL) approach for distribution network voltage regulation using PV inverters with minimal system knowledge. In contrast to existing DRL methods, this paper presents and corroborates the adverse impact of missing load information on DRL performance and, based on this finding, proposes a surrogate model methodology to impute load information utilizing observable data. Additionally, a multi-fidelity neural network is utilized to construct the DRL training environment, chosen for its efficient data utilization and enhanced robustness to data uncertainty. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm are assessed by considering DRL testing across varying degrees of observable load information and diverse training environments on a realistic power system.

越来越多的分布式太阳能光伏发电(PV)并入配电网络,可能会对电网运行产生不利影响。传统的基于模型的控制算法需要精确的模型信息,而这些信息很难获取,因此在实际应用中具有挑战性。本文提出了一种代用模型支持的电网可视性方案,以增强使用光伏逆变器的配电网电压调节深度强化学习(DRL)方法的能力,同时只需极少的系统知识。与现有的 DRL 方法相比,本文提出并证实了负载信息缺失对 DRL 性能的不利影响,并基于这一发现,提出了一种代用模型方法,利用可观测数据来估算负载信息。此外,还利用多保真度神经网络来构建 DRL 训练环境,选择这种方法是为了有效利用数据并增强对数据不确定性的鲁棒性。通过考虑在现实电力系统中不同程度的可观测负荷信息和不同的训练环境下进行 DRL 测试,评估了所提算法的可行性和有效性。
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引用次数: 0
A data-driven solution for intelligent power allocation of connected hybrid electric vehicles inspired by offline deep reinforcement learning in V2X scenario 在 V2X 场景下,受离线深度强化学习启发的数据驱动型互联混合动力电动汽车智能功率分配解决方案
IF 10.1 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123861
Zegong Niu, Hongwen He

The proper power allocation between multiple energy sources is crucial for hybrid electric vehicles to guarantee energy economy. As a data-driven technique, offline deep reinforcement learning (DRL) solely exploits existing data to train energy management strategy (EMS), which becomes a promising solution for intelligent power allocation. However, current offline DRL-based strategies put high demands on the quality of datasets, and it is difficult to obtain numerous high-quality samples in practice. Thus, a bootstrapping error accumulation reduction (BEAR)-based strategy is proposed to enhance the energy-saving performance with different kinds of datasets. After that, based on the advanced V2X technology, a data-driven energy management updating framework is proposed to improve both fuel economy and adaptability of EMS via multi-updating. Specifically, the framework deploys multiple V2X-based buses to collect real-time information, and updates the strategy periodically making full use of offline data. The results show that the proposed BEAR-based EMS performs better than state-of-the-art offline EMSs in terms of fuel economy, especially realizing an improvement of 2.25% when training with mixed datasets. It is also validated that the offline EMS with the updating mechanism can reduce energy costs step by step under two different kinds of initial datasets.

对于混合动力电动汽车来说,如何在多种能源之间进行合理的功率分配以保证能源的经济性至关重要。作为一种数据驱动技术,离线深度强化学习(DRL)完全利用现有数据来训练能量管理策略(EMS),成为一种很有前途的智能功率分配解决方案。然而,目前基于离线 DRL 的策略对数据集的质量要求很高,在实际应用中很难获得大量高质量的样本。因此,本文提出了一种基于引导误差累积减少(BEAR)的策略,以提高不同类型数据集的节能性能。随后,基于先进的 V2X 技术,提出了一种数据驱动的能源管理更新框架,通过多重更新提高 EMS 的燃油经济性和适应性。具体来说,该框架部署了多辆基于 V2X 的总线来收集实时信息,并充分利用离线数据定期更新策略。结果表明,基于 BEAR 的 EMS 在燃油经济性方面的表现优于最先进的离线 EMS,尤其是在使用混合数据集进行训练时,其燃油经济性提高了 2.25%。同时还验证了在两种不同的初始数据集下,具有更新机制的离线 EMS 可以逐步降低能源成本。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing district heating potential at large scale: Presentation and application of a spatially-detailed model to optimally match heat sources and demands. 评估大规模区域供热潜力:介绍并应用空间细节模型,优化热源与需求的匹配。
IF 10.1 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123844
G. Spirito , A. Dénarié , F. Fattori , G. Muliere , M. Motta , U. Persson

This paper presents a newly developed methodology aimed at assessing at national level the techno-economic potential of district heating (DH) based on renewables and excess heat sources. The novelty of the model lies in the use of an optimization approach to match heat demand and heat sources at large scale level, while keeping a high degree of spatial detail. Areas suitable for DH adoption are identified by minimizing heat delivery costs, and therefore by choosing the most economical technology between district heating and the alternative individual solution. The optimization approach, usually applicable at limited analytical scope because of the computational burden, is here adapted to large scale analysis through the introduction of novel methodological elements with which the network topology is simulated nationwide.

The methodology applies to preliminarily identified maps of available heat sources and eligible heat demand, with the quantification of the latter including retrofitting and low connection rate scenarios. It then consists in two steps: connecting elements in a graph through triangulation and routing algorithms and optimizing connections to minimize the overall heat delivery costs, either by adopting district heating or individual heating systems. The whole methodology is based on open-source data and tools for broad applicability. The paper presents the elaborated methodology together with the application of the entire model to Italy. The outcome is a map of the potential district heating systems identified with significant spatial detail nationwide. A four-fold expansion is envisaged, covering 12% of the national heat demand with renewables- and excess heat- based district heating.

本文介绍了一种新开发的方法,旨在从国家层面评估基于可再生能源和过剩热源的区域供热(DH)的技术经济潜力。该模型的新颖之处在于采用优化方法,在保持高度空间细节的同时,在大规模水平上匹配热需求和热源。通过最大限度地降低供热成本,从而在区域供热和其他单独解决方案之间选择最经济的技术,确定适合采用区域供热的地区。由于计算负担,优化方法通常只适用于有限的分析范围,在此通过引入新的方法元素,对全国范围内的网络拓扑结构进行模拟,使其适用于大规模分析。该方法适用于初步确定的可用热源和合格热需求地图,后者的量化包括改造和低连接率方案。该方法包括两个步骤:通过三角测量和路由算法将图中的元素连接起来;通过采用区域供热或单个供热系统,优化连接以最大限度地降低总体供热成本。整个方法以开源数据和工具为基础,具有广泛的适用性。本文介绍了精心设计的方法以及整个模型在意大利的应用。其结果是在全国范围内确定了潜在的区域供热系统地图,并提供了重要的空间细节。预计区域供热系统将扩大四倍,可再生能源和过剩热量区域供热将覆盖全国 12% 的热量需求。
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引用次数: 0
Influence of high-resolution data on accurate curtailment loss estimation and optimal design of hybrid PV–wind power plants 高分辨率数据对精确估算削减损失和光伏-风能混合发电厂优化设计的影响
IF 10.1 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123784
Øyvind Sommer Klyve , Robin Grab , Ville Olkkonen , Erik Stensrud Marstein

Hybrid photovoltaic (PV) - wind power plants (HyPPs), i.e., where the PV and wind systems are co-located and share the Point of Interconnection (POI) with the grid, have recently attracted more attention. This trend is driven by the expected reduced capital and operational expenditures achieved through, e.g., shared land and POI infrastructure for HyPPs compared to two individual PV and wind installations. However, if the POI is underdimensioned relative to the PV and wind capacities, the generation from either or both of the assets must at times be curtailed, unless mitigated by solutions like energy storage. This curtailment might lead to income losses. Moreover, as HyPPs typically are designed using wind and PV generation data on hourly resolution, the actual curtailment losses can be underestimated. This might in turn lead to HyPP designs which are techno-economically sub-optimal.

In this study, a comparative analysis is conducted to analyze how the curtailment and income loss estimations for HyPPs, as well as the techno-economic optimal HyPP topologies, are impacted by varying the input data time resolution. One year of site measured PV and wind power generation data on 5 s resolution from an existing HyPP located in Eastern Germany are used as basis for the study. For a HyPP topology with an undersized POI, where the installed capacities of the POI, PV, and wind systems are all equal, the curtailment losses are estimated to be 1.45%, 1.43% and 1.09% using the 5 s, 1 min and 1 h resolution datasets, respectively. Moreover, using the 1 h instead of the 1 min dataset leads to a 1.86% overestimation of the total Net Present Value (NPV) for this HyPP topology. As the shares of the PV and wind systems increase relative to the POI capacity, the differences in the estimation of the curtailment losses and NPVs between the high- and low-resolution datasets become more significant.

光伏-风力混合发电厂(HyPPs),即光伏和风力系统共用厂址并与电网共用互联点(POI),最近引起了更多关注。与两个独立的光伏和风能装置相比,HyPPs 通过共享土地和 POI 基础设施等方式,预计可减少资本和运营支出,从而推动了这一趋势的发展。然而,如果 POI 相对于光伏和风力发电能力而言尺寸过小,除非采用储能等解决方案,否则有时必须削减其中一个或两个资产的发电量。这种削减可能会导致收入损失。此外,由于 HyPP 在设计时通常使用的是以小时为单位的风力和光伏发电数据,因此可能会低估实际的缩减损失。在本研究中,我们进行了一项比较分析,以分析输入数据时间分辨率的变化如何影响 HyPP 的缩减和收入损失估计,以及 HyPP 的技术经济优化拓扑结构。本研究以德国东部现有 HyPP 的一年光伏和风力发电现场测量数据(5 秒分辨率)为基础。在 POI、光伏发电和风力发电系统装机容量相等的情况下,对于 POI 过小的 HyPP 拓扑,使用 5 秒、1 分钟和 1 小时分辨率的数据集估算出的削减损失分别为 1.45%、1.43% 和 1.09%。此外,使用 1 小时数据集而不是 1 分钟数据集会导致该 HyPP 拓扑的总净现值 (NPV) 被高估 1.86%。随着光伏和风能系统在 POI 容量中所占比例的增加,高分辨率数据集和低分辨率数据集在估算削减损失和净现值方面的差异变得更加显著。
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引用次数: 0
Prospective life cycle approach to buildings' adaptation for future climate and decarbonization scenarios 采用前瞻性生命周期方法使建筑物适应未来气候和去碳化情景
IF 10.1 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123867
Carla Rodrigues , Eugénio Rodrigues , Marco S. Fernandes , Sérgio Tadeu

The existing building stock is crucial for enhancing decarbonization targets and mitigating climate change. This article delves into a methodological approach that combines prospective life cycle assessment, building thermal simulation using projected future climate data, and global sensitivity analysis to pinpoint the most influential parameters under current climate conditions and future scenarios. The methodology covers plausible decarbonization pathways for the electricity mix, considering the growing utilization of renewable sources, which are influenced by the building locations. An adaptive reuse process involves converting a historic residence into an office building to validate the proposed methodology. Several retrofit strategies are assessed, such as exterior wall insulation, roof insulation, and window replacement. The findings reveal a 12% rise in average usage impacts and a 7% increase in cradle-to-use impacts from the base scenario to future climate projections. Embodied impacts surpass use-phase impacts by 23% in future climates and 33% in certain baseline scenarios. Utilizing future climate data in the life cycle analysis to estimate energy requirements can aid in forecasting building performance under climate change, especially in adapting the existing building stock for enhanced thermal comfort with minimal environmental impact.

现有建筑存量对于实现脱碳目标和减缓气候变化至关重要。本文深入探讨了一种方法论,该方法结合了前瞻性生命周期评估、使用未来气候预测数据进行的建筑热模拟以及全球敏感性分析,以确定在当前气候条件和未来情景下最具影响力的参数。考虑到可再生能源利用率的不断提高,该方法涵盖了电力组合的合理去碳化途径,而这又受到建筑位置的影响。为了验证所提出的方法,将一座历史悠久的住宅改建成办公楼的适应性再利用过程得到了验证。评估了几种改造策略,如外墙隔热、屋顶隔热和窗户更换。研究结果显示,从基本方案到未来气候预测,平均使用影响增加了 12%,从摇篮到使用的影响增加了 7%。在未来气候条件下,体现的影响比使用阶段的影响高出 23%,在某些基准情景下则高出 33%。在生命周期分析中利用未来气候数据来估算能源需求,有助于预测气候变化下的建筑性能,特别是在改造现有建筑群以提高热舒适度的同时将环境影响降到最低。
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引用次数: 0
Indicators for suitability and feasibility assessment of flexible energy resources 灵活能源的适用性和可行性评估指标
IF 10.1 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123834
Pablo Calvo-Bascones , Francisco Martín-Martínez

Recommender systems play a critical role in optimizing building energy consumption by providing personalized advice based on data analytics and user preferences. However, the literature highlights the need for systems that can justify their recommendations, as many of these systems use non-transparent machine-learning techniques. This research introduces two distinct types of indicators with three main goals: to identify patterns of flexible consumption behavior using transparent and straightforward methods suitable for remote decision support systems, thereby eliminating the need for extensive databases; to evaluate the feasibility of installing solar panels on building facades, rooftops, and structures using high-resolution 3D models; and to enhance understanding through a quantitative assessment of the feasibility and suitability of integrating renewable energy sources, particularly photovoltaic systems. Flexible prosumers are scored by assessing their energy consumption level, consistency, and variability through the Flexible Consumption Indicators. Topology Indicators perform a quantitative assessment of the feasibility of support surfaces for installing photovoltaic panels, taking into account rooftop pitch angles, orientations, and surrounding and internal structures, identifying those areas exposed to sufficient levels of irradiation. This study, which uses actual consumption profiles and similar households' buildings 3D models, demonstrates how the proposed indicators can aid identifying users with flexible consumption profiles that reside in buildings compatible with renewable energy sources, aiding in decision-making process within the energy transition.

推荐系统根据数据分析和用户偏好提供个性化建议,在优化建筑能耗方面发挥着至关重要的作用。然而,文献强调系统需要能够证明其建议的合理性,因为许多此类系统使用的是不透明的机器学习技术。这项研究引入了两种不同类型的指标,主要有三个目标:使用适合远程决策支持系统的透明、直接的方法识别灵活消费行为模式,从而无需大量数据库;使用高分辨率三维模型评估在建筑物外墙、屋顶和结构上安装太阳能电池板的可行性;通过对整合可再生能源(尤其是光伏系统)的可行性和适宜性进行量化评估来加深理解。通过 "灵活消费指标 "评估能源消耗水平、一致性和可变性,从而对灵活消费户进行评分。拓扑指标对安装光伏电池板的支撑面的可行性进行量化评估,同时考虑到屋顶间距角度、方向以及周围和内部结构,确定哪些区域可获得足够的辐照。这项研究利用实际消费情况和类似家庭建筑的三维模型,展示了所提出的指标如何帮助识别居住在与可再生能源兼容的建筑中、具有灵活消费情况的用户,从而帮助能源转型过程中的决策制定。
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引用次数: 0
Reaction synergy of bimetallic catalysts on ZSM-5 support in tailoring plastic pyrolysis for hydrogen and value-added product production ZSM-5 支承上的双金属催化剂在定制塑料热解制氢和生产增值产品中的反应协同作用
IF 10.1 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-07-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123853
Wenming Fu , Yoke Wang Cheng , Dequan Xu , Yaning Zhang , Chi-Hwa Wang

Hydrogen, viz. a green energy carrier, is poised to considerably contribute to the empowerment of a sustainable society. By valorizing plastics, catalytic pyrolysis was envisaged as a promising route to produce green hydrogen and value-added product here. Firstly, the screening of optimal catalyst support (from activated carbon and four zeolites: M-zeolite, B-zeolite, Y-zeolite, ZSM-5) was executed by studying catalytic polypropylene (PP) pyrolysis over supported Ni catalysts. In view of the highest H2 yield (19.2 mmol/gPP) of Ni/ZSM-5, ZSM-5 was put forth as the optimal catalyst support. Then, the identification of optimal active metal (from Ni, Fe, Co, FeNi, FeCo, and NiCo) was performed by running the catalytic PP pyrolysis over ZSM-5 supported catalysts. For catalytic PP pyrolysis, NiCo/ZSM-5 was the optimal catalyst with the highest H2 yield (28.7 mmol/gPP), while the resulting pyrolysis oil demonstrated potential for use as jet fuel. From catalytic pyrolysis of various plastics over NiCo/ZSM-5, polystyrene gave the highest H2 composition (83.2 vol%) of pyrolysis gas and high composition (52.8 area%) of benzocyclobutene (useful chemicals for semiconductor and microelectronics fields) in pyrolysis oil. Lastly, the catalytic mechanism was discussed based on the results, revealing NiCo's remarkable enhancement in H2 yield to 28.7 mmol/g, which surpassed the individual yields of Ni (19.2 mmol/g) and Co (10.2 mmol/g), thereby underscoring the synergistic effect of NiCo. This study supports the recycling of plastics waste into hydrogen energy and valuable products, contributing to environmental pollution mitigation.

氢气作为一种绿色能源载体,将极大地促进可持续社会的发展。通过对塑料进行增值,催化热解被认为是一条生产绿色氢气和增值产品的可行途径。首先,筛选最佳催化剂载体(活性炭和四种沸石:M-沸石、B-沸石、Y-沸石、ZSM-5)中筛选出最佳催化剂载体。鉴于 Ni/ZSM-5 的 H2 产率最高(19.2 mmol/gPP),ZSM-5 被认为是最佳催化剂载体。然后,通过在 ZSM-5 载体催化剂上运行催化 PP 热解,确定了最佳活性金属(从 Ni、Fe、Co、FeNi、FeCo 和 NiCo 中选择)。在催化聚丙烯热解过程中,NiCo/ZSM-5 是最佳催化剂,其 H2 产率最高(28.7 mmol/gPP),所产生的热解油具有用作喷气燃料的潜力。在 NiCo/ZSM-5 催化热解各种塑料的过程中,聚苯乙烯热解气体中的 H2 成分最高(83.2 vol%),热解油中的苯并环丁烯(半导体和微电子领域的有用化学品)成分较高(52.8 area%)。最后,根据研究结果讨论了催化机理,发现镍钴能显著提高 H2 产率,达到 28.7 mmol/g,超过了镍(19.2 mmol/g)和钴(10.2 mmol/g)的单独产率,从而突出了镍钴的协同效应。这项研究支持将废塑料回收利用为氢能和有价值的产品,为减轻环境污染做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Advancing fractured geothermal system modeling with artificial neural network and bidirectional gated recurrent unit 利用人工神经网络和双向门控递归单元推进断裂地热系统建模
IF 10.1 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-07-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123826
Yuwei Li , Genbo Peng , Tong Du , Liangliang Jiang , Xiang-Zhao Kong

Geothermal energy plays a pivotal role in the global energy transition towards carbon-neutrality, providing a sustainable, renewable, and abundant source of clean energy in the fight against climate change. Despite advancements, the optimal engineering of geothermal systems and energy extraction remains challenging, particularly in accurately predicting production temperatures. Here, we present an innovative numerical approach using a hybrid neural network that merges Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (BiGRU). With this hybrid network, we comprehensively assess 22 influential factors, including construction parameters, physical parameters, and well layout, which influence thermal breakthrough time and production temperature across varying fracture density. While the ANN captures the nonlinear interplay between static constraints and thermal breakthrough time, the BiGRU adeptly handles the temporal intricacies of production temperature. We examine the impact of ANN parameters on model performance, in comparison with conventional temporal models like Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gate Recurrent Unit (GRU), and BiGRU. Our findings reveal that augmenting hidden layers and neurons in ANN enhances its capacity to model intricate nonlinear processes, albeit with a risk of overfitting. Notably, the relu activation function emerges as optimal for managing nonlinear processes, while BiGRU excels over RNN, GRU, and LSTM models in forecasting production temperature of fractured geothermal systems, owing to its ability to extract implicit information from time series across historical and future trajectories. Crucially, the prediction uncertainty, measured by Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE), remains within 0.15, underscoring the precision and efficacy of our hybrid approach in forecasting geothermal energy extraction. This study presents a significant stride towards a high-precision and efficient predictive framework crucial for advancing geothermal energy extraction in the broader context of renewable energy transition endeavors.

地热能在全球能源向碳中性过渡的过程中发挥着举足轻重的作用,为应对气候变化提供了可持续、可再生和丰富的清洁能源。尽管取得了进步,但地热系统和能源提取的优化工程仍具有挑战性,尤其是在准确预测生产温度方面。在这里,我们提出了一种创新的数值方法,即使用混合神经网络,将人工神经网络(ANN)和双向门控递归单元(BiGRU)融合在一起。利用这种混合网络,我们全面评估了 22 个影响因素,包括施工参数、物理参数和油井布局,这些因素会在不同的压裂密度下影响热突破时间和生产温度。ANN捕捉到了静态约束和热突破时间之间的非线性相互作用,而BiGRU则能巧妙地处理生产温度在时间上的复杂性。与循环神经网络 (RNN)、长短期记忆 (LSTM)、门循环单元 (GRU) 和 BiGRU 等传统时间模型相比,我们研究了 ANN 参数对模型性能的影响。我们的研究结果表明,增强 ANN 的隐藏层和神经元可提高其模拟复杂非线性过程的能力,尽管存在过度拟合的风险。值得注意的是,relu 激活函数是管理非线性过程的最佳方法,而 BiGRU 在预测断裂地热系统的生产温度方面优于 RNN、GRU 和 LSTM 模型,这是因为 BiGRU 能够从跨越历史和未来轨迹的时间序列中提取隐含信息。最重要的是,用均方根误差(RMSE)和平均绝对误差(MAE)测量的预测不确定性保持在 0.15 以内,这突出表明了我们的混合方法在预测地热能源提取方面的精确性和有效性。这项研究在建立高精度、高效率的预测框架方面迈出了重要一步,这对于在可再生能源转型的大背景下推进地热能源开采至关重要。
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