Applied Energy最新文献_第2页

H2-powered aviation – Optimized aircraft and green LH2 supply in air transport networks h2动力航空——航空运输网络中优化的飞机和绿色LH2供应

IF 10.1 1区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Applied Energy

Pub Date : 2024-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124999

J. Hoelzen , D. Silberhorn , F. Schenke , E. Stabenow , T. Zill , A. Bensmann , R. Hanke-Rauschenbach

The final financial decisions on starting the commercialization of the next single-aisle aircraft programs for entry-into-service in the 2030s are due in less than 5 years. These programs will shape the future climate impact over the following 20–30 years of this aircraft segment and will determine if the sector can achieve its 2050 net-zero target. And so far, there are only limited holistic research perspectives available evaluating the best decarbonization options for such a crucial next product.

This study provides a first-of-its-kind holistic evaluation approach for the business case of single-aisle hydrogen-(H₂)-powered aircraft to enable true-zero CO₂ flying. It combines the optimization of green liquid hydrogen (LH₂) supply and aircraft designs as well as the investigation of operational strategies with such aircraft in one specific air traffic network.

It is found that LH₂ could cost around 2 to 3 USD/kg at main European airports in a 2050 scenario. Even though the aircraft with H₂ direct combustion would be less efficient, average total operating costs would be 3% lower than flying with synthetic kerosene in the given network in 2050. As an operational strategy to save fuel costs, tankering might play an essential role in reducing operating costs for H₂-powered aircraft in the early adoption phase with high differences in LH₂ supply costs.

Finally, it is derived that usage of LH₂ as a fuel would lead to lower installation requirements of renewable energy generation capacity compared to the synthetic kerosene option. Since green electricity will be a constrained resource in the next decades, this is another important aspect for choosing future decarbonization options in air travel.

All in all, the study proves the importance of the derived methodology leading to a broader techno-economic assessment for two decarbonization options in aviation. Such novel approaches might be further developed and applied to other related research topics in this field.

将于21世纪30年代投入使用的下一批单通道飞机商业化项目的最终财务决定将在不到5年的时间内做出。这些项目将决定未来20-30年该机型对气候的影响，并将决定该行业能否实现2050年的净零排放目标。到目前为止，只有有限的整体研究视角可以评估这种至关重要的下一个产品的最佳脱碳选择。本研究为实现真正的零二氧化碳飞行的单通道氢动力飞机的商业案例提供了首个整体评估方法。它结合了绿色液态氢（LH2）供应和飞机设计的优化，以及在特定空中交通网络中使用这种飞机的操作策略的研究。研究发现，在2050年的情景中，欧洲主要机场的LH2成本约为2至3美元/公斤。即使使用H2直接燃烧的飞机效率较低，但到2050年，在给定的网络中，平均总运营成本将比使用合成煤油的飞机低3%。作为一种节省燃料成本的操作策略，在LH2供应成本差异较大的早期采用阶段，加油机可能在降低h2动力飞机的运营成本方面发挥重要作用。最后，得出的结论是，与合成煤油相比，使用LH2作为燃料将导致可再生能源发电能力的安装要求更低。由于绿色电力在未来几十年将是一种有限的资源，这是选择未来航空旅行脱碳方案的另一个重要方面。总而言之，该研究证明了衍生方法的重要性，可以对航空领域的两种脱碳方案进行更广泛的技术经济评估。这些新方法可以进一步发展并应用于该领域的其他相关研究课题。

{"title":"H2-powered aviation – Optimized aircraft and green LH2 supply in air transport networks","authors":"J. Hoelzen , D. Silberhorn , F. Schenke , E. Stabenow , T. Zill , A. Bensmann , R. Hanke-Rauschenbach","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124999","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124999","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The final financial decisions on starting the commercialization of the next single-aisle aircraft programs for entry-into-service in the 2030s are due in less than 5 years. These programs will shape the future climate impact over the following 20–30 years of this aircraft segment and will determine if the sector can achieve its 2050 net-zero target. And so far, there are only limited holistic research perspectives available evaluating the best decarbonization options for such a crucial next product.</div><div>This study provides a first-of-its-kind holistic evaluation approach for the business case of single-aisle hydrogen-(H<sub>2</sub>)-powered aircraft to enable true-zero CO<sub>2</sub> flying. It combines the optimization of green liquid hydrogen (LH<sub>2</sub>) supply and aircraft designs as well as the investigation of operational strategies with such aircraft in one specific air traffic network.</div><div>It is found that LH<sub>2</sub> could cost around 2 to 3 USD/kg at main European airports in a 2050 scenario. Even though the aircraft with H<sub>2</sub> direct combustion would be less efficient, average total operating costs would be 3% lower than flying with synthetic kerosene in the given network in 2050. As an operational strategy to save fuel costs, tankering might play an essential role in reducing operating costs for H<sub>2</sub>-powered aircraft in the early adoption phase with high differences in LH<sub>2</sub> supply costs.</div><div>Finally, it is derived that usage of LH<sub>2</sub> as a fuel would lead to lower installation requirements of renewable energy generation capacity compared to the synthetic kerosene option. Since green electricity will be a constrained resource in the next decades, this is another important aspect for choosing future decarbonization options in air travel.</div><div>All in all, the study proves the importance of the derived methodology leading to a broader techno-economic assessment for two decarbonization options in aviation. Such novel approaches might be further developed and applied to other related research topics in this field.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"380 ","pages":"Article 124999"},"PeriodicalIF":10.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142759533","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Passive thermal management of CO2 Methanation using phase change material with high thermal conductivity 采用高导热性相变材料的CO2甲烷化被动热管理

IF 10.1 1区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Applied Energy

Pub Date : 2024-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124942

Hiroaki Koide , Akira Gunji , Masatoshi Sugimasa , Takahiro Kawaguchi , Cholila Tamzysi , Takahiro Nomura

CO₂ methanation is a promising technology for fuel decarbonization. Since methanation is an exothermic reaction, thermal management of the reactor is an important issue. This study investigated the effect of applying metallic phase change material(PCM) for reactor thermal management. In this study, Zn-30 %Al alloy(melting point: 429–509 °C)-based PCM composites were mixed with catalysts in a bench scale reactor, then steady-state and transient methanation were examined. The results at steady state indicated peak temperature was reduced from 464 °C to 411 °C compared to conventional single-catalyst condition. This corresponded to 38 % reduction in the temperature difference between peak and base temperature. Furthermore, temperature distribution in the whole reactor was homogenized, achieving a dispersion of the local thermal stress. This was due to high thermal conductivity of metallic PCM. Then, transient thermal management of PCM was evaluated. Periods for temperature increase between 430 and 450 °C, including PCM melting point, was prolonged 45 min compared to the condition without PCM. This resulted 71 % suppression of exothermic speed. This was due to complex effects of latent heat and high thermal conductivity of metallic PCM, offering thermal buffer in case of catalyst thermal runaway. These results showed the introduction of metallic PCM into methanation reactor provides novel thermal management.

二氧化碳甲烷化是一种很有前途的燃料脱碳技术。由于甲烷化是一个放热反应，因此反应器的热管理是一个重要的问题。研究了金属相变材料在反应堆热管理中的应用效果。在实验反应器中，将zn - 30%铝合金（熔点429-509℃）基PCM复合材料与催化剂混合，研究了稳态和瞬态甲烷化反应。结果表明，在稳态条件下，与传统的单催化剂条件相比，峰值温度从464℃降至411℃。这相当于峰值温度和基础温度之间的温差减少了38%。此外，整个反应器内的温度分布均质化，实现了局部热应力的分散。这是由于金属PCM的高导热性。然后，对PCM的瞬态热管理进行了评价。与没有PCM的情况相比，430至450°C之间的温度升高周期（包括PCM熔点）延长了45分钟。这导致71%的放热速度被抑制。这是由于金属PCM的潜热和高导热的复杂影响，在催化剂热失控的情况下提供热缓冲。结果表明，在甲烷化反应器中引入金属PCM提供了一种新的热管理方法。

{"title":"Passive thermal management of CO2 Methanation using phase change material with high thermal conductivity","authors":"Hiroaki Koide , Akira Gunji , Masatoshi Sugimasa , Takahiro Kawaguchi , Cholila Tamzysi , Takahiro Nomura","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124942","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124942","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>CO<sub>2</sub> methanation is a promising technology for fuel decarbonization. Since methanation is an exothermic reaction, thermal management of the reactor is an important issue. This study investigated the effect of applying metallic phase change material(PCM) for reactor thermal management. In this study, Zn-30 %Al alloy(melting point: 429–509 °C)-based PCM composites were mixed with catalysts in a bench scale reactor, then steady-state and transient methanation were examined. The results at steady state indicated peak temperature was reduced from 464 °C to 411 °C compared to conventional single-catalyst condition. This corresponded to 38 % reduction in the temperature difference between peak and base temperature. Furthermore, temperature distribution in the whole reactor was homogenized, achieving a dispersion of the local thermal stress. This was due to high thermal conductivity of metallic PCM. Then, transient thermal management of PCM was evaluated. Periods for temperature increase between 430 and 450 °C, including PCM melting point, was prolonged 45 min compared to the condition without PCM. This resulted 71 % suppression of exothermic speed. This was due to complex effects of latent heat and high thermal conductivity of metallic PCM, offering thermal buffer in case of catalyst thermal runaway. These results showed the introduction of metallic PCM into methanation reactor provides novel thermal management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"380 ","pages":"Article 124942"},"PeriodicalIF":10.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142759140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Risk-averse transactions optimization strategy for building users participating in incentive-based demand response programs 建筑用户参与基于激励的需求响应方案的风险规避交易优化策略

IF 10.1 1区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Applied Energy

Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.125009

Cheng Zhen , Jide Niu , Zhe Tian , Yakai Lu , Chuanzhi Liang

By participating in demand response programs, building users can provide energy flexibility for the power grid while earning economic benefits for themselves. However, the win-win situation described above is often challenged by the presence of ineffective demand response, over-target demand response and under-target demand response, which pose risks to the economic returns of building users and the stable operation of the grid. To this end, this study proposes a risk-averse transaction optimization strategy to offer bidding schemes and operational strategies that effectively balance the effectiveness of demand response with operational economic benefits. First, a novel model for calculating incentive subsidy is developed, which takes into account the power grid's requirements for demand response effectiveness, as well as differentiated subsidy and penalty mechanisms. Then, a risk-averse optimal dispatch model for building integrated energy systems is established. By collaboratively optimizing the declared response quantity and operation strategies, this method reduces the risk of incentive subsidy loss faced by building users and enhances demand response effectiveness. Lastly, the proposed models are applied in the power market of Shenzhen, China, and the effectiveness of the method is assessed based on three key performance indicators: incentive subsidy loss rate, operating cost reduction rate, the actual load response rate. The results indicate that the total incentive subsidy loss rate is reduced from 37.16 % to 17.75 % through the application of the risk-averse optimal dispatch model proposed in this paper, with operating cost savings ranging from 3 % to 8.09 %. More importantly, the effectiveness of demand response is significantly improved, with the proportion of effective response duration increasing from 18.60 % to 65.93 %. The proposed method is further validated by adjusting the penalty coefficient. Findings show that the risk-averse method provides more robust results and provides more reliable bidding schemes for declared response quantity.

通过参与需求响应计划，建筑用户可以为电网提供能源灵活性，同时为自己获得经济效益。然而，需求响应无效、需求响应过目标和需求响应过目标的情况往往会挑战上述双赢局面，给建筑用户的经济回报和电网的稳定运行带来风险。为此，本研究提出了一种风险规避交易优化策略，以提供有效平衡需求响应有效性与运行经济效益的投标方案和运行策略。首先，建立了一种新的激励补贴计算模型，该模型考虑了电网对需求响应有效性的要求，并考虑了不同的补贴和惩罚机制。然后，建立了建筑综合能源系统的风险规避最优调度模型。该方法通过对申报响应量和运行策略的协同优化，降低了建网用户面临的激励补贴损失风险，提高了需求响应有效性。最后，将该模型应用于深圳电力市场，并基于激励补贴损失率、运行成本降低率和实际负荷响应率三个关键绩效指标对该方法的有效性进行了评估。结果表明，采用风险规避优化调度模型后，总激励补贴损失率从37.16%降低到17.75%，运行成本节约3% ~ 8.09%。更重要的是，需求响应的有效性显著提高，有效响应时长占比从18.60%提高到65.93%。通过调整惩罚系数，进一步验证了该方法的有效性。研究结果表明，风险规避方法提供了更稳健的结果，并为申报响应量提供了更可靠的投标方案。

{"title":"Risk-averse transactions optimization strategy for building users participating in incentive-based demand response programs","authors":"Cheng Zhen , Jide Niu , Zhe Tian , Yakai Lu , Chuanzhi Liang","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.125009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.125009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>By participating in demand response programs, building users can provide energy flexibility for the power grid while earning economic benefits for themselves. However, the win-win situation described above is often challenged by the presence of ineffective demand response, over-target demand response and under-target demand response, which pose risks to the economic returns of building users and the stable operation of the grid. To this end, this study proposes a risk-averse transaction optimization strategy to offer bidding schemes and operational strategies that effectively balance the effectiveness of demand response with operational economic benefits. First, a novel model for calculating incentive subsidy is developed, which takes into account the power grid's requirements for demand response effectiveness, as well as differentiated subsidy and penalty mechanisms. Then, a risk-averse optimal dispatch model for building integrated energy systems is established. By collaboratively optimizing the declared response quantity and operation strategies, this method reduces the risk of incentive subsidy loss faced by building users and enhances demand response effectiveness. Lastly, the proposed models are applied in the power market of Shenzhen, China, and the effectiveness of the method is assessed based on three key performance indicators: incentive subsidy loss rate, operating cost reduction rate, the actual load response rate. The results indicate that the total incentive subsidy loss rate is reduced from 37.16 % to 17.75 % through the application of the risk-averse optimal dispatch model proposed in this paper, with operating cost savings ranging from 3 % to 8.09 %. More importantly, the effectiveness of demand response is significantly improved, with the proportion of effective response duration increasing from 18.60 % to 65.93 %. The proposed method is further validated by adjusting the penalty coefficient. Findings show that the risk-averse method provides more robust results and provides more reliable bidding schemes for declared response quantity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"380 ","pages":"Article 125009"},"PeriodicalIF":10.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142756752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Two-stage planning of integrated energy systems under copula models informed cascading extreme weather uncertainty 耦合模型下综合能源系统的两阶段规划告知级联极端天气不确定性

IF 10.1 1区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Applied Energy

Pub Date : 2024-11-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124990

Longxiang Chen , Ze Luo , Rui Jing , Kai Ye , Meina Xie

Extreme weather events are becoming more intense and frequent globally. It is essential to enhance the resilience of energy system at the planning stage and mitigate negative impacts of these events on system performance by multi-energy integration and design optimization. Therefore, a two-stage integrated energy system planning framework is proposed in this work, which enhances the operational flexibility and resilience under extreme weather conditions. The correlation between floods and storm caused by typhoons is captured by copula models and incorporated into the integrated energy system planning model. The framework is applied to a case study of an industrial park with factory business and residence users. The results indicate that considering cascading extreme weather reduces the total cost and the interruption rate by 2.86 % and 53.71 %, respectively, compared to addressing single extreme weather events. For industrial parks with a high proportion of critical loads, the planning is more conservative, highlighting a reduced need for considering cascading extreme weather.

在全球范围内，极端天气事件正变得越来越强烈和频繁。通过多能集成和优化设计，增强能源系统在规划阶段的弹性，减轻这些事件对系统性能的负面影响。因此，本文提出了一种两阶段一体化的能源系统规划框架，以增强在极端天气条件下的运行灵活性和弹性。copula模型捕捉台风引起的洪水与风暴之间的相关性，并将其纳入综合能源系统规划模型。将该框架应用于一个工业园区的案例研究，该园区有工厂、商业和住宅用户。结果表明，与单一极端天气事件相比，考虑级联极端天气事件可降低总成本2.86%，中断率53.71%。对于临界负荷比例较高的工业园区，规划更为保守，强调减少了考虑级联极端天气的需要。

{"title":"Two-stage planning of integrated energy systems under copula models informed cascading extreme weather uncertainty","authors":"Longxiang Chen , Ze Luo , Rui Jing , Kai Ye , Meina Xie","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124990","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124990","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Extreme weather events are becoming more intense and frequent globally. It is essential to enhance the resilience of energy system at the planning stage and mitigate negative impacts of these events on system performance by multi-energy integration and design optimization. Therefore, a two-stage integrated energy system planning framework is proposed in this work, which enhances the operational flexibility and resilience under extreme weather conditions. The correlation between floods and storm caused by typhoons is captured by copula models and incorporated into the integrated energy system planning model. The framework is applied to a case study of an industrial park with factory business and residence users. The results indicate that considering cascading extreme weather reduces the total cost and the interruption rate by 2.86 % and 53.71 %, respectively, compared to addressing single extreme weather events. For industrial parks with a high proportion of critical loads, the planning is more conservative, highlighting a reduced need for considering cascading extreme weather.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"380 ","pages":"Article 124990"},"PeriodicalIF":10.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142747813","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Multi-scale spatio-temporal transformer: A novel model reduction approach for day-ahead security-constrained unit commitment 多尺度时空转换器：日前安全约束单元承诺的新模型约简方法

IF 10.1 1区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Applied Energy

Pub Date : 2024-11-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124963

Mao Liu , Xiangyu Kong , Kaizhi Xiong , Jimin Wang , Qingxiang Lin

Security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) in large-scale power systems faces significant computational challenges, particularly with increasing renewable energy integration. This paper introduces a multi-scale spatio-temporal transformer (MSTT) model for efficient SCUC problem reduction through three key innovations: a multi-scale ST attention mechanism integrating both hierarchical temporal attention and electrical distance-based spatial attention to capture complex system dependencies, a physics-informed position encoding method incorporating power system domain knowledge including electrical distance, power flow sensitivity, and generator stability characteristics, and an adaptive reduction strategy with dynamic threshold adjustment mechanism that automatically balances computational efficiency and solution reliability based on system states and prediction confidence. Experimental results on IEEE test systems demonstrate that the MSTT model achieves up to 69.5 % computational time reduction while maintaining solution optimality (base-normalized cost (BNC) ≤ 0.05 %), significantly outperforming existing approaches.

大型电力系统中的安全约束单元承诺（SCUC）面临着重大的计算挑战，特别是随着可再生能源整合的增加。本文介绍了一种多尺度时空变压器（MSTT）模型，该模型通过三个关键创新来有效地减少scc问题：一种多尺度ST注意机制，集成了分层时间注意和基于电距离的空间注意，以捕捉复杂的系统依赖性；一种基于物理的位置编码方法，结合了电力系统领域知识，包括电距离、潮流灵敏度和发电机稳定性特征；基于动态阈值调整机制的自适应约简策略，根据系统状态和预测置信度自动平衡计算效率和解的可靠性。在IEEE测试系统上的实验结果表明，MSTT模型在保持解的最优性（基本归一化成本(BNC)≤0.05%）的情况下，计算时间减少了69.5%，显著优于现有方法。

{"title":"Multi-scale spatio-temporal transformer: A novel model reduction approach for day-ahead security-constrained unit commitment","authors":"Mao Liu , Xiangyu Kong , Kaizhi Xiong , Jimin Wang , Qingxiang Lin","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124963","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124963","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) in large-scale power systems faces significant computational challenges, particularly with increasing renewable energy integration. This paper introduces a multi-scale spatio-temporal transformer (MSTT) model for efficient SCUC problem reduction through three key innovations: a multi-scale ST attention mechanism integrating both hierarchical temporal attention and electrical distance-based spatial attention to capture complex system dependencies, a physics-informed position encoding method incorporating power system domain knowledge including electrical distance, power flow sensitivity, and generator stability characteristics, and an adaptive reduction strategy with dynamic threshold adjustment mechanism that automatically balances computational efficiency and solution reliability based on system states and prediction confidence. Experimental results on IEEE test systems demonstrate that the MSTT model achieves up to 69.5 % computational time reduction while maintaining solution optimality (base-normalized cost (BNC) ≤ 0.05 %), significantly outperforming existing approaches.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"380 ","pages":"Article 124963"},"PeriodicalIF":10.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142756751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Graph neural networks for power grid operational risk assessment under evolving unit commitment 基于图神经网络的电网运行风险评估

IF 10.1 1区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Applied Energy

Pub Date : 2024-11-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124793

Yadong Zhang, Pranav M. Karve, Sankaran Mahadevan

This article investigates the ability of graph neural networks (GNNs) to identify risky conditions in a power grid over the subsequent few hours, without explicit, high-resolution information regarding future generator on/off status or power dispatch decisions. The GNNs are trained using supervised learning to predict the power grid’s aggregated bus-level (either zonal or system-level) or individual branch-level state under different power supply and demand conditions. The variability of the stochastic grid variables (wind/solar generation and load demand), and their statistical correlations, are considered while generating the inputs for the training data. The outputs in the training data include system-level, zonal and transmission line-level quantities of interest (QoIs). The ground truth of QoIs are obtained by numerically solving deterministic optimization problems (e.g., security-constrained unit commitment) with the same inputs. The GNN predictions are used to conduct hours-ahead, sampling-based reliability and risk assessment w.r.t. zonal and system-level (load shedding) as well as branch-level (overloading) failure events. The proposed methodology is demonstrated for three synthetic grids with sizes ranging from 118 to 2848 buses. Our results demonstrate that GNNs are capable of providing fast and accurate prediction of QoIs and can be good proxies for computationally expensive optimization algorithms. The excellent accuracy of GNN-based reliability and risk assessment suggests that GNN models can substantially improve situational awareness by enabling quick, high-resolution reliability and risk estimation.

本文研究了在没有关于未来发电机开/关状态或电力调度决策的明确、高分辨率信息的情况下，图神经网络（gnn）在随后几小时内识别电网风险状况的能力。使用监督学习对gnn进行训练，以预测不同电力供需条件下电网的总母线级（区域级或系统级）或单个支路级状态。在生成训练数据的输入时，考虑了随机网格变量（风能/太阳能发电和负载需求）的可变性及其统计相关性。训练数据的输出包括系统级、区域级和传输线级的兴趣量（qoi）。通过数值求解具有相同输入的确定性优化问题（例如，受安全约束的单元承诺），获得qi的基本真理。GNN预测用于提前数小时进行基于采样的可靠性和风险评估，包括区域和系统级（负载减少）以及分支级（过载）故障事件。提出的方法演示了三个合成网格的大小范围从118到2848总线。我们的研究结果表明，gnn能够提供快速准确的qos预测，并且可以作为计算昂贵的优化算法的良好代理。基于GNN的可靠性和风险评估具有优异的准确性，这表明GNN模型可以通过实现快速、高分辨率的可靠性和风险评估，大大提高态势感知能力。

{"title":"Graph neural networks for power grid operational risk assessment under evolving unit commitment","authors":"Yadong Zhang, Pranav M. Karve, Sankaran Mahadevan","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124793","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124793","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article investigates the ability of graph neural networks (GNNs) to identify risky conditions in a power grid over the subsequent few hours, without explicit, high-resolution information regarding future generator on/off status or power dispatch decisions. The GNNs are trained using supervised learning to predict the power grid’s aggregated bus-level (either zonal or system-level) or individual branch-level state under different power supply and demand conditions. The variability of the stochastic grid variables (wind/solar generation and load demand), and their statistical correlations, are considered while generating the inputs for the training data. The outputs in the training data include system-level, zonal and transmission line-level quantities of interest (QoIs). The ground truth of QoIs are obtained by numerically solving deterministic optimization problems (e.g., security-constrained unit commitment) with the same inputs. The GNN predictions are used to conduct hours-ahead, sampling-based reliability and risk assessment w.r.t. zonal and system-level (load shedding) as well as branch-level (overloading) failure events. The proposed methodology is demonstrated for three synthetic grids with sizes ranging from 118 to 2848 buses. Our results demonstrate that GNNs are capable of providing fast and accurate prediction of QoIs and can be good proxies for computationally expensive optimization algorithms. The excellent accuracy of GNN-based reliability and risk assessment suggests that GNN models can substantially improve situational awareness by enabling quick, high-resolution reliability and risk estimation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"380 ","pages":"Article 124793"},"PeriodicalIF":10.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142747809","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Thermo-economic analysis of green hydrogen production onboard LNG carriers through solid oxide electrolysis powered by organic Rankine cycles 有机朗肯循环驱动固体氧化物电解液化天然气运输船绿色制氢的热经济分析

IF 10.1 1区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Applied Energy

Pub Date : 2024-11-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124996

Doha Elrhoul , Manuel Naveiro , Manuel Romero Gómez , Thomas A. Adams II

LNG carriers play a crucial role in the shipping industry meeting the global demand for natural gas (NG). However, the energy losses resulting from the propulsion system and the excess boil-off gas (BOG) cannot be overlooked. The present article investigates the H₂ production on board LNG carriers employing both the engine's waste heat (WH) and the excess BOG. Conventional (ORC) and dual-pressure (2P-ORC) organic Rankine cycles coupled separately with a solid oxide electrolysis (SOEC) have been simulated and compared. The hydrogen (H₂) produced is then compressed at 150 bar for subsequent use as required. According to the results, the 2P-ORC generates 14.79 % more power compared to ORC, allowing for an increased energy supply to the SOEC; hence, producing more H₂ (34.47 kg/h compared to 31.14 kg/h). Including the 2P-ORC in the H₂ production plant results in a cheaper H₂ cost by 0.04 $/kg_H2 compared to ORC, a 1.13 %_LHV higher system efficiency when leveraging all the available waste heat. The plant including 2P-ORC exploits more than 86 % of the of the available waste compared to 70 % when using ORC. Excluding the compression system decreases the capital cost by almost the half regardless of the WH recovery system used, yet it plays in favour of the plant with ORC making the cost of H₂ cheaper by 0.29 $/kg_H2 in this case. Onboard H₂ production is a versatile process independent from the propulsion system ensuring the ship's safety and availability throughout a sea journey.

LNG运输船在航运业满足全球天然气需求方面发挥着至关重要的作用。然而，由推进系统和过量蒸发气体（BOG）造成的能量损失不容忽视。本文研究了利用发动机的废热（WH）和多余的BOG在LNG运输船上生产氢气。对常规（ORC）和双压力（2P-ORC）有机朗肯循环分别耦合固体氧化物电解（SOEC）进行了模拟和比较。然后将产生的氢气（H2）压缩到150巴，以便根据需要进行后续使用。根据结果，2P-ORC产生的功率比ORC多14.79%，从而增加了对SOEC的能源供应；因此，产生更多的氢气（34.47 kg/h比31.14 kg/h）。将2P-ORC纳入H2生产工厂，与ORC相比，H2成本降低0.04美元/kgH2，在利用所有可用废热时，系统效率提高1.13% LHV。包括2P-ORC在内的工厂利用了86%以上的可利用废物，而使用ORC时为70%。不包括压缩系统，无论使用何种WH回收系统，资本成本都降低了近一半，但在这种情况下，它有利于使用ORC的工厂，使H2的成本降低0.29美元/kgH2。船上氢气生产是一个独立于推进系统的通用过程，确保了船舶在整个海上航行中的安全性和可用性。

{"title":"Thermo-economic analysis of green hydrogen production onboard LNG carriers through solid oxide electrolysis powered by organic Rankine cycles","authors":"Doha Elrhoul , Manuel Naveiro , Manuel Romero Gómez , Thomas A. Adams II","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124996","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124996","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>LNG carriers play a crucial role in the shipping industry meeting the global demand for natural gas (NG). However, the energy losses resulting from the propulsion system and the excess boil-off gas (BOG) cannot be overlooked. The present article investigates the H<sub>2</sub> production on board LNG carriers employing both the engine's waste heat (WH) and the excess BOG. Conventional (ORC) and dual-pressure (2P-ORC) organic Rankine cycles coupled separately with a solid oxide electrolysis (SOEC) have been simulated and compared. The hydrogen (H<sub>2</sub>) produced is then compressed at 150 bar for subsequent use as required. According to the results, the 2P-ORC generates 14.79 % more power compared to ORC, allowing for an increased energy supply to the SOEC; hence, producing more H<sub>2</sub> (34.47 kg/h compared to 31.14 kg/h). Including the 2P-ORC in the H<sub>2</sub> production plant results in a cheaper H<sub>2</sub> cost by 0.04 $/kg<sub>H2</sub> compared to ORC, a 1.13 %<sub>LHV</sub> higher system efficiency when leveraging all the available waste heat. The plant including 2P-ORC exploits more than 86 % of the of the available waste compared to 70 % when using ORC. Excluding the compression system decreases the capital cost by almost the half regardless of the WH recovery system used, yet it plays in favour of the plant with ORC making the cost of H<sub>2</sub> cheaper by 0.29 $/kg<sub>H2</sub> in this case. Onboard H<sub>2</sub> production is a versatile process independent from the propulsion system ensuring the ship's safety and availability throughout a sea journey.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"380 ","pages":"Article 124996"},"PeriodicalIF":10.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142747816","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Probabilistic geo-referenced grid modeling: A Bayesian approach for integrating available system measurements 概率地理参考网格建模：集成可用系统测量的贝叶斯方法

IF 10.1 1区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Applied Energy

Pub Date : 2024-11-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124913

Domenico Tomaselli , Paul Stursberg , Michael Metzger , Florian Steinke

With the ongoing implementation of new climate targets, power distribution grids are increasingly integrating behind-the-meter photovoltaic (PV) systems, electric vehicle (EV) home chargers, and heat pumps (HPs). The integration of these solutions can often result in grid congestion issues, requiring appropriate mitigation measures. Designing these measures can be challenging in the absence of a digital and up-to-date model of the existing infrastructure, which is often the case at the low-voltage (LV) level. In this work, we introduce a novel two-stage Bayesian approach for establishing a probability distribution of geo-referenced power flow (PF)-ready grid models using available system measurements. We demonstrate the proposed approach in a residential region in Schutterwald, Germany. We find that integrating available system measurements can effectively enhance the quality of the distribution, yielding potential grid models that more accurately align with the existing infrastructure. Moreover, we showcase the practical utility of the proposed approach for assessing overvoltage within a specific grid segment subject to high rooftop PV adoption. While state-of-the-art baselines either fail to identify any overvoltage issues or are inconclusive, integrating available system measurements using the proposed approach offers a more reliable assessment.

随着新的气候目标的持续实施，配电网越来越多地集成了电表后光伏（PV）系统、电动汽车（EV）家用充电器和热泵（hp）。这些解决方案的集成通常会导致电网拥堵问题，需要采取适当的缓解措施。在缺乏现有基础设施的数字化和最新模型的情况下，设计这些措施可能具有挑战性，这种情况通常发生在低压（LV）水平。在这项工作中，我们介绍了一种新的两阶段贝叶斯方法，用于利用可用的系统测量值建立地理参考潮流（PF）就绪电网模型的概率分布。我们在德国舒特瓦尔德的一个住宅区演示了所提出的方法。我们发现集成可用的系统测量可以有效地提高分布的质量，产生更准确地与现有基础设施对齐的潜在网格模型。此外，我们还展示了所提出的方法的实际效用，用于评估高屋顶光伏采用的特定电网段内的过电压。虽然最先进的基线要么无法识别任何过电压问题，要么是不确定的，但使用拟议的方法集成可用的系统测量提供了更可靠的评估。

{"title":"Probabilistic geo-referenced grid modeling: A Bayesian approach for integrating available system measurements","authors":"Domenico Tomaselli , Paul Stursberg , Michael Metzger , Florian Steinke","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124913","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124913","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the ongoing implementation of new climate targets, power distribution grids are increasingly integrating behind-the-meter photovoltaic (PV) systems, electric vehicle (EV) home chargers, and heat pumps (HPs). The integration of these solutions can often result in grid congestion issues, requiring appropriate mitigation measures. Designing these measures can be challenging in the absence of a digital and up-to-date model of the existing infrastructure, which is often the case at the low-voltage (LV) level. In this work, we introduce a novel two-stage Bayesian approach for establishing a probability distribution of geo-referenced power flow (PF)-ready grid models using available system measurements. We demonstrate the proposed approach in a residential region in Schutterwald, Germany. We find that integrating available system measurements can effectively enhance the quality of the distribution, yielding potential grid models that more accurately align with the existing infrastructure. Moreover, we showcase the practical utility of the proposed approach for assessing overvoltage within a specific grid segment subject to high rooftop PV adoption. While state-of-the-art baselines either fail to identify any overvoltage issues or are inconclusive, integrating available system measurements using the proposed approach offers a more reliable assessment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"380 ","pages":"Article 124913"},"PeriodicalIF":10.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142747814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

An hourly-resolution capacity sharing market for generation-side clustered renewable-storage plants 发电端集群可再生储能电站的小时分辨率容量共享市场

IF 10.1 1区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Applied Energy

Pub Date : 2024-11-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124964

Chuan Wang , Wei Wei , Laijun Chen , Yuan Gong , Shengwei Mei

With the increasing penetration of renewable energy on the generation side, their volatility greatly challenges power balancing in the power grids. Deploying energy storage in wind farms, solar stations, and collection stations allow renewable plants to sell energy guided by the electricity price signal and increase their market revenues. This paper considers a representative scenario on the generation side. Wind farms and solar stations managed by different entities sell energy to a market through a collection station, aiming to maximize individual profits. Each renewable plant is equipped with a local battery in order to store energy and wait for a higher price. They can also rent some capacity from a shared energy storage unit at the collection station for better profitability. This paper designs a day-ahead hourly-resolution capacity rental market for the shared energy storage in the collection station and proposes an online operation policy for individual renewable plants. In the day-ahead market, renewable plants bid their needs of storage capacity in each time period based on the rental price and a batch of renewable power scenarios in the next day, and then the market is cleared at the Stackelberg equilibrium where the shared storage acts as the leader. Given the capacity obtained from the day-ahead market, each renewable plant obtains reference storage level trajectories in the pre-specified scenarios as experiences. In the real-time stage, the dispatch of local and shared storage units is determined from the conditional expectation of experiences, where the conditional distribution is generated by kernel regression using dynamic time warping as the distance measure. This proposed method does not rely on renewable power forecasts and is easy to implement. Numerical results validate the economy of the proposed method. Compared to the autarky mode, the profit of a renewable plant is increased by 40.6% on average. Compared to the ideal optimum, the optimality gap of the proposed method is 1.4% on average.

随着可再生能源在发电端的渗透率不断提高，其波动性给电网的电力平衡带来了巨大挑战。在风力发电场、太阳能发电站和集热站部署储能系统，可让可再生能源发电厂在电价信号的引导下销售能源，并增加其市场收入。本文考虑了发电端的一个代表性场景。由不同实体管理的风电场和太阳能电站通过集热站向市场出售能源，以实现个人利润最大化。每个可再生能源工厂都配备了一个本地电池，以便储存能量，等待更高的价格。他们还可以从集热站的共享能源存储单元租用一些容量，以获得更好的盈利能力。本文设计了集成站共享储能日前一小时分辨率的容量租赁市场，并提出了单个可再生电站的在线运行策略。在日前市场中，可再生能源发电厂根据租赁价格和第二天的一批可再生能源发电场景，对各自时段的储能需求进行竞价，然后在以共享储能为龙头的Stackelberg均衡下出清市场。给定从日前市场获得的容量，每个可再生能源电厂在预先指定的情景下获得参考存储水平轨迹作为经验。在实时阶段，本地存储单元和共享存储单元的调度由经验的条件期望决定，其中条件分布由核回归生成，并以动态时间翘曲作为距离度量。该方法不依赖于可再生能源预测，易于实现。数值结果验证了该方法的经济性。与自给模式相比，可再生能源电厂的利润平均增加了40.6%。与理想最优相比，所提方法的最优性差距平均为1.4%。

{"title":"An hourly-resolution capacity sharing market for generation-side clustered renewable-storage plants","authors":"Chuan Wang , Wei Wei , Laijun Chen , Yuan Gong , Shengwei Mei","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124964","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124964","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the increasing penetration of renewable energy on the generation side, their volatility greatly challenges power balancing in the power grids. Deploying energy storage in wind farms, solar stations, and collection stations allow renewable plants to sell energy guided by the electricity price signal and increase their market revenues. This paper considers a representative scenario on the generation side. Wind farms and solar stations managed by different entities sell energy to a market through a collection station, aiming to maximize individual profits. Each renewable plant is equipped with a local battery in order to store energy and wait for a higher price. They can also rent some capacity from a shared energy storage unit at the collection station for better profitability. This paper designs a day-ahead hourly-resolution capacity rental market for the shared energy storage in the collection station and proposes an online operation policy for individual renewable plants. In the day-ahead market, renewable plants bid their needs of storage capacity in each time period based on the rental price and a batch of renewable power scenarios in the next day, and then the market is cleared at the Stackelberg equilibrium where the shared storage acts as the leader. Given the capacity obtained from the day-ahead market, each renewable plant obtains reference storage level trajectories in the pre-specified scenarios as experiences. In the real-time stage, the dispatch of local and shared storage units is determined from the conditional expectation of experiences, where the conditional distribution is generated by kernel regression using dynamic time warping as the distance measure. This proposed method does not rely on renewable power forecasts and is easy to implement. Numerical results validate the economy of the proposed method. Compared to the autarky mode, the profit of a renewable plant is increased by 40.6% on average. Compared to the ideal optimum, the optimality gap of the proposed method is 1.4% on average.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"380 ","pages":"Article 124964"},"PeriodicalIF":10.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142756750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

When do different scenarios of projected electricity demand start to meaningfully diverge? 预测电力需求的不同情况何时开始出现有意义的分歧？

IF 10.1 1区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Applied Energy

Pub Date : 2024-11-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124948

Casey D. Burleyson , Zarrar Khan , Misha Kulshresta , Nathalie Voisin , Mengqi Zhao , Jennie S. Rice

Resource adequacy studies look at balancing electricity supply and demand on 10- to 15-year time horizons while asset investment planning typically evaluates returns on 20- to 40-year time horizons. Projections of electricity demand are factored into the decision-making in both cases. Climate, energy policy, and socioeconomic changes are key uncertainties known to influence electricity demands, but their relative importance for demands over the next 10–40 years is unclear. The power sector would benefit from a better understanding of the need to characterize these uncertainties for resource adequacy and investment planning. In this study, we quantify when projected United States (U.S.) electricity demands start to meaningfully diverge in response to a range of climate, energy policy, and socioeconomic drivers. We use a wide yet plausible range of 21st century scenarios for the U.S. The projections span two population/economic growth scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 and 5) and two climate/energy policy scenarios, one including climate mitigation policies and one without (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). Each climate/energy policy scenario has two warming levels to reflect a range of climate model uncertainty. We show that the socioeconomic scenario matters almost immediately – within the next 10 years, the climate/policy scenario matters within 25–30 years, and the climate model uncertainty matters only after 50+ years. This work can inform the power sector working to integrate climate change uncertainties into their decision-making.

资源充足性研究着眼于平衡10至15年的电力供应和需求，而资产投资规划通常评估20至40年的回报。在这两种情况下，电力需求的预测都是决策的因素。气候、能源政策和社会经济变化是已知影响电力需求的关键不确定因素，但它们对未来10-40年需求的相对重要性尚不清楚。电力部门将受益于更好地了解为资源充足性和投资规划确定这些不确定因素特征的必要性。在本研究中，我们量化了美国预计的电力需求何时开始因一系列气候、能源政策和社会经济驱动因素而产生有意义的分歧。我们使用了广泛而合理的21世纪美国情景，预测跨越了两种人口/经济增长情景（共享社会经济路径3和5）和两种气候/能源政策情景，其中一种包括气候减缓政策，另一种不包括（代表性浓度路径4.5和8.5）。每种气候/能源政策情景都有两个变暖水平，以反映一系列气候模式的不确定性。我们表明，社会经济情景在未来10年内几乎立即起作用，气候/政策情景在25-30年内起作用，而气候模型的不确定性仅在50多年后才起作用。这项工作可以为正在努力将气候变化不确定性纳入其决策的电力部门提供信息。

{"title":"When do different scenarios of projected electricity demand start to meaningfully diverge?","authors":"Casey D. Burleyson , Zarrar Khan , Misha Kulshresta , Nathalie Voisin , Mengqi Zhao , Jennie S. Rice","doi":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124948","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124948","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Resource adequacy studies look at balancing electricity supply and demand on 10- to 15-year time horizons while asset investment planning typically evaluates returns on 20- to 40-year time horizons. Projections of electricity demand are factored into the decision-making in both cases. Climate, energy policy, and socioeconomic changes are key uncertainties known to influence electricity demands, but their relative importance for demands over the next 10–40 years is unclear. The power sector would benefit from a better understanding of the need to characterize these uncertainties for resource adequacy and investment planning. In this study, we quantify when projected United States (U.S.) electricity demands start to meaningfully diverge in response to a range of climate, energy policy, and socioeconomic drivers. We use a wide yet plausible range of 21st century scenarios for the U.S. The projections span two population/economic growth scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 and 5) and two climate/energy policy scenarios, one including climate mitigation policies and one without (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). Each climate/energy policy scenario has two warming levels to reflect a range of climate model uncertainty. We show that the socioeconomic scenario matters almost immediately – within the next 10 years, the climate/policy scenario matters within 25–30 years, and the climate model uncertainty matters only after 50+ years. This work can inform the power sector working to integrate climate change uncertainties into their decision-making.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":246,"journal":{"name":"Applied Energy","volume":"380 ","pages":"Article 124948"},"PeriodicalIF":10.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142747808","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0