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Control method and system for seawater desalination hydropower symbiosis in coastal steel enterprises 沿海钢铁企业海水淡化水电共生的控制方法和系统
IF 10.1 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124792
Liyun Wu , Sujun Chen , Yuebo Yu , Liu Zhang , Delei Chen , Zhixin Tang , Zhong Zheng , Ke Zhang
In the conventional seawater desalination hydropower cogeneration mode, issues such as condenser cold source loss and energy cascade waste arise. To address these issues, a new process, referred to as hydropower symbiosis, has been developed for seawater desalination. This process utilizes low calorific value exhaust steam from steam turbine power generation as the heat source for desalination. It makes full use of low-calorific-value blast furnace gas from steel mills to improve the efficiency of the power generation system and utilizes previously wasted energy in the form of waste gas steam for seawater desalination. To achieve collaborative control of water and power cogeneration in the new hydropower symbiosis system, this paper presents a control method based on Stair-like Generalized Predictive Control (SGPC). The key coupling parameter of the hydropower symbiosis system, which is the exhaust steam flow, is controlled to ensure synergy in the system. Firstly, the parameters of the hydropower co-generation system are recognized online based on the actual operation data to correct the system parameters under the change of working conditions. Then, the future output of controlled spent steam flow is predicted based on the CARIMA model, which is easy to identify online, providing a reference or the optimization of the control quantity, i.e., the pumping valve opening. Finally, based on the predicted value of spent steam flow, the optimal sequence of pumping valve openings is determined in real-time on a rolling basis to enhance the stability of spent steam flow control under perturbation and variable operating conditions. The stability and effectiveness of the proposed control method are demonstrated through simulation experiments and validated by the application in a seawater desalination project in the steel plant. Production control data from three months of continuous system operation indicate that the method effectively manages variations in blast furnace gas calorific value and steam pipe network pressure fluctuations while maintaining stable control capabilities. It ensures efficient water production under various conditions and meets power generation requirements, ensuring stable and reliable system operation. This method also holds valuable reference significance for similar problem research and engineering applications.
在传统的海水淡化水电联产模式中,会出现冷凝器冷源损失和能量级联浪费等问题。为解决这些问题,开发了一种用于海水淡化的新工艺,即水电共生。该工艺利用蒸汽轮机发电产生的低热值废蒸汽作为海水淡化的热源。它充分利用炼钢厂的低热值高炉煤气来提高发电系统的效率,并将以前以废气蒸汽形式浪费的能源用于海水淡化。为了在新的水电共生系统中实现水电联产的协同控制,本文提出了一种基于楼梯状广义预测控制(SGPC)的控制方法。对水电共生系统的关键耦合参数--排汽流量进行控制,以确保系统的协同性。首先,根据实际运行数据在线识别水电共生系统的参数,在工况变化时修正系统参数。然后,基于易于在线识别的 CARIMA 模型,预测未来可控乏汽流量的输出,为控制量(即抽气阀开度)的优化提供参考。最后,根据乏汽流量的预测值,实时滚动确定抽汽阀的最佳开启顺序,以提高乏汽流量控制在扰动和多变运行条件下的稳定性。通过模拟实验证明了所提出的控制方法的稳定性和有效性,并通过在钢铁厂海水淡化项目中的应用进行了验证。系统连续运行三个月的生产控制数据表明,该方法能有效控制高炉煤气热值变化和蒸汽管网压力波动,同时保持稳定的控制能力。它确保了各种条件下的高效制水,满足了发电要求,保证了系统的稳定可靠运行。该方法对类似问题的研究和工程应用也具有重要的参考意义。
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引用次数: 0
Integrating local market operations into transmission investment: A tri-level optimization approach 将本地市场运作与输电投资相结合:三级优化方法
IF 10.1 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124721
Yuxin Xia , Iacopo Savelli , Thomas Morstyn
The rise of Local Energy Markets (LEMs) and increasing local flexibility present a key research question: How do local flexibility and LEM operations impact merchant-regulated transmission investments? This paper introduces a novel tri-level framework to integrate local market dynamics into transmission investment decisions. The framework models the sequential operations of the WSM and LEMs, adhering to their respective network constraints, and includes a regulatory mechanism that incentivizes profit-driven Transmission Companies (Transcos) to make social welfare maximizing investments while accounting for local refinement costs. The tri-level optimization problem is asymptotically approximated by a mixed-integer second-order cone programming problem. Our findings from three case studies reveal that the provision of local flexibility substantially reduces reliance on conventional energy generation supplies. Additionally, transmission investment decisions are influenced by the levels of flexible generation and consumers, while adhering to network constraints. Moreover, the tri-level model enhances Transcos’ awareness of the sequential interactions between the WSM and LEMs, enabling them to make investment strategies that are responsive to the changing dynamics of local markets.
地方能源市场(LEM)的兴起和地方灵活性的提高提出了一个关键的研究问题:本地灵活性和本地能源市场的运营如何影响受商家监管的输电投资?本文引入了一个新颖的三层框架,将本地市场动态纳入输电投资决策。该框架对 WSM 和 LEM 的顺序运行进行建模,遵守各自的网络约束,并包含一个监管机制,激励以利润为导向的输电公司(Transcos)进行社会福利最大化的投资,同时考虑本地完善成本。三层优化问题近似于混合整数二阶圆锥编程问题。我们对三个案例的研究结果表明,提供本地灵活性可大大降低对传统能源发电供应的依赖。此外,输电投资决策受到灵活发电和消费者水平的影响,同时还要遵守网络约束。此外,三层次模型增强了输电公司对 WSM 和 LEM 之间顺序互动的认识,使他们能够根据当地市场的动态变化制定投资策略。
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引用次数: 0
Flexible operation of solar-assisted carbon capture power plants considering interval-enhanced CVaR 太阳能辅助碳捕集发电厂的灵活运行(考虑间隔增强型 CVaR
IF 10.1 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124850
Shuhao Liang , Suhua Lou , Ziqing Zhu , Yongping Sun
Solar-assisted carbon capture power plants (SACCPPs) leverage solar thermal energy to mitigate power output loss and expand the net output range of carbon capture units, enhancing energy economy, reserve capacity, and carbon emission reduction. However, assessing the flexible operation benefits of SACCPPs in power systems with high wind power penetration is challenging due to complex thermodynamic models and limited risk assessment methods. This study addresses these gaps by proposing an innovative modeling approach and benefits evaluation framework. First, a linear flexible operation model is developed, focusing on the technical features of SACCPPs relevant to power system operation and scheduling. This model elucidates the intercoordination in power generation, carbon capture, and thermal storage. The operating ranges of various carbon capture power plants are quantitatively analyzed using a two-dimensional coordinate diagram, highlighting the flexible regulation advantages of SACCPPs. Second, an Interval-Enhanced CVaR method is introduced, which considers random variables with unknown probability distributions, refining the current CVaR-based knowledge. This method is used for a quantified risk assessment to evaluate supply-demand imbalance risks in power systems, providing a foundation for assessing SACCPPs' risk mitigation benefits. Third, a risk-aware operation scheduling model is developed to explore SACCPPs' capability in enhancing the system's energy economic benefits, risk mitigation, and carbon emissions reduction. This model aids energy administration in evaluating system gains from SACCPPs and in developing rational system-wide planning and retrofit projects. Finally, numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis results on the modified IEEE-39 bus system validate the robust adaptability and effectiveness of the proposed models and methods.
太阳能辅助碳捕集电厂(SACCPPs)利用太阳能热能来减少电力输出损失,并扩大碳捕集机组的净输出范围,从而提高能源经济性、储备能力和碳减排效果。然而,由于复杂的热力学模型和有限的风险评估方法,在风电渗透率较高的电力系统中评估 SACCPP 的灵活运行效益具有挑战性。本研究通过提出创新的建模方法和效益评估框架来弥补这些不足。首先,针对 SACCPP 与电力系统运行和调度相关的技术特点,开发了线性灵活运行模型。该模型阐明了发电、碳捕集和热存储之间的相互协调。利用二维坐标图定量分析了各种碳捕集电厂的运行范围,突出了 SACCPPs 的灵活调节优势。其次,引入了区间增强 CVaR 方法,该方法考虑了具有未知概率分布的随机变量,完善了当前基于 CVaR 的知识。该方法用于量化风险评估,以评估电力系统的供需失衡风险,为评估 SACCPPs 的风险缓解效益奠定了基础。第三,开发了风险感知运行调度模型,以探索 SACCPPs 在提高系统能源经济效益、降低风险和减少碳排放方面的能力。该模型有助于能源管理部门评估 SACCPPs 带来的系统收益,并制定合理的全系统规划和改造项目。最后,对改进后的 IEEE-39 总线系统的数值模拟和敏感性分析结果验证了所提模型和方法的强大适应性和有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Electro-thermal analysis of inductively coupled power transfer in pavement for electric vehicle charging 用于电动汽车充电的路面电感耦合功率传输电热分析
IF 10.1 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124809
Xiao Chen , Hao Wang , Zilong Zheng , Fei Lu
Inductively coupled power transfer (ICPT) system provides a promising alternative for wireless charging of electric vehicles (EVs). This study aims to develop an integrated electro-thermal analysis approach for analyzing power transmission and heat transfer of ICPT embedded in the pavement. Laboratory experiments were first conducted to evaluate wireless power transfer efficiency of ICPT system with the interference of pavement material. An integrated electro-thermal model was established to analyze transmission efficiency and temperature variation when ICPT system is embedded at various pavement depths of pavement structure subject to different vehicle offsets. The results revealed that traditional cement concrete pavement material with a typical water to cement ratio of 0.48 has negligible impact on power transfer efficiency under standard charging levels. However, the efficiency dropped from 95.4 % to 85.9 % as embedment depth increased from 4 cm to 16 cm, and it further decreased to 84.6 % with a 15 cm one-side offset at a 4 cm installation depth. The power loss results in significant changes of temperature. The maximum temperature variations were found to be impacted by incremental state of charge, charging power, and transmission efficiency, in addition to thermal properties of ICPT components. Under the most unfavorable case, those temperature changes of the ICPT system and pavement can be up to 112 °C and 76 °C, respectively.
电感耦合功率传输(ICPT)系统为电动汽车(EV)的无线充电提供了一种前景广阔的替代方案。本研究旨在开发一种综合电热分析方法,用于分析嵌入路面的 ICPT 的电力传输和热量传递。首先进行了实验室实验,以评估 ICPT 系统在路面材料干扰下的无线电力传输效率。建立了综合电热模型,分析了在不同车辆偏移情况下,将 ICPT 系统嵌入路面结构的不同路面深度时的传输效率和温度变化。结果表明,在标准充电水平下,典型水灰比为 0.48 的传统水泥混凝土路面材料对电力传输效率的影响可以忽略不计。然而,随着嵌入深度从 4 厘米增加到 16 厘米,效率从 95.4% 下降到 85.9%,而在安装深度为 4 厘米、单侧偏移 15 厘米的情况下,效率进一步下降到 84.6%。功率损耗导致温度发生显著变化。除了 ICPT 组件的热特性外,最大温度变化还受到增量充电状态、充电功率和传输效率的影响。在最不利的情况下,ICPT 系统和路面的温度变化分别高达 112 ℃ 和 76 ℃。
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引用次数: 0
Microgrid energy management system with degradation cost and carbon trading mechanism: A multi-objective artificial hummingbird algorithm 具有降级成本和碳交易机制的微电网能源管理系统:多目标人工蜂鸟算法
IF 10.1 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124853
Ling-Ling Li , Bing-Xiang Ji , Zhong-Tao Li , Ming K. Lim , Kanchana Sethanan , Ming-Lang Tseng
Microgrid is an important way to optimize the distributed power generation and its optimal scheduling to ensure reliable and economical operation. This study constructs a multi-objective optimization model for a microgrid energy management system involving degradation cost and carbon trading mechanism. A carbon trading mechanism is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; meanwhile, a demand response strategy is employed to optimize energy load demand. The energy storage system mathematical model is considered and degradation cost is introduced to change the corresponding control strategy. A hybrid energy storage is used in this model to smooth out the solar power and wind power fluctuations. Hence, a multi-objective artificial hummingbird optimization algorithm is proposed and uses to solve the optimal operation strategy of the microgrid. The final optimal operation strategy is obtained from the Pareto solution set using TOPSIS. The results show that the proposed microgrid system has 20.2 % lower total operating costs, 4.5 % lower carbon emissions, and 32.6 % longer battery life than the conventional microgrid system, which is critical for improving the operation stability, economy, low carbon of the system, and extending the service life of the battery.
微电网是优化分布式发电及其优化调度以确保可靠、经济运行的重要途径。本研究构建了微电网能源管理系统的多目标优化模型,涉及降级成本和碳交易机制。碳交易机制旨在减少温室气体排放;同时,采用需求响应策略优化能源负荷需求。考虑了储能系统数学模型,并引入了退化成本,以改变相应的控制策略。该模型中使用了混合储能,以平滑太阳能和风能的波动。因此,提出了一种多目标人工蜂鸟优化算法,用于求解微电网的最优运行策略。最终的最优运行策略是通过 TOPSIS 从帕累托解集中得到的。结果表明,与传统微电网系统相比,建议的微电网系统总运行成本降低了 20.2%,碳排放量降低了 4.5%,电池寿命延长了 32.6%,这对于提高系统的运行稳定性、经济性、低碳性和延长电池使用寿命至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Transactive control for grid-interactive efficient commercial buildings 电网交互式高效商业建筑的交互式控制
IF 10.1 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124675
Sen Huang , Jianming Lian , Srinivas Katipamula , Robert Lutes
Transactive control (TC) is a type of distributed control strategy that uses market mechanisms to coordinate distinct objectives of individual entities. Through grid-interactive efficient buildings, TC can help achieve power balance in the electrical power grid under high penetration of renewable energy. This paper presents a standard TC approach for commercial heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems. This TC approach includes a flexible market structure to accommodate the variances in system configurations of HVAC systems, and an extensible market-based control process to support various demand response (DR) services. In addition, we develop a software workflow for deploying this TC approach. The software workflow is based on VOLTTRON, which is a distributed sensing and control software platform, and encapsulates the process of deploying decentralized control architecture and market-based control on a large scale. Case studies were conducted with both building energy simulations and field tests. The results show that TC is effective at providing real time price, demand limiting, and load following DR services with the studied HVAC systems.
交互控制(TC)是一种分布式控制策略,它利用市场机制来协调各个实体的不同目标。通过电网交互式高效建筑,TC 可以帮助实现可再生能源高渗透率情况下的电网电力平衡。本文介绍了一种适用于商业供暖、通风和空调(HVAC)系统的标准 TC 方法。这种 TC 方法包括一个灵活的市场结构,以适应 HVAC 系统配置的差异,以及一个可扩展的基于市场的控制流程,以支持各种需求响应 (DR) 服务。此外,我们还为部署这种 TC 方法开发了一个软件工作流程。该软件工作流程基于分布式传感和控制软件平台 VOLTTRON,囊括了大规模部署分散控制架构和基于市场的控制的过程。通过建筑能源模拟和现场测试进行了案例研究。结果表明,在所研究的暖通空调系统中,TC 能够有效地提供实时价格、需求限制和负载跟随 DR 服务。
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引用次数: 0
Experimental study on dynamic characteristics of a jacket-type offshore wind turbine under coupling action of wind and wave 风浪耦合作用下夹套型海上风力涡轮机动态特性的实验研究
IF 10.1 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-11-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124876
Wen-Li Chen , Ziyang Zhang , Jiabin Liu , Donglai Gao
Wind and wave loads are crucial factors affecting the structural safety of offshore wind turbines. With the trend towards larger wind turbines, the DTU 10 MW wind turbines have become mainstream models. The jacket-type foundation has been widely used due to its high rigidity and suitability for a wide range of water depths. Therefore, a scaled experiment was conducted on a DTU 10 MW jacket-type offshore wind turbine to reveal the dynamic characteristics of the structure. The experimental results showed that the wind loads dominated the mean of the structural response. Under the coupling action of wind and wave, the wind load suppresses the response at the structure's first-order frequency and the wave frequency. Both the wind and wave loads influence the amplitude of the structural response. The response amplitudes of the tower top displacement and foundation bending moment were smaller than the square root of the sum of the squares (SRSS) obtained from the separate wind and wave actions. Under extreme wind speed, the tower top displacement's amplitude is 75 % of the SRSS value, and the amplitude of the foundation bending moment is only 67 % of the SRSS value.
风浪载荷是影响海上风力涡轮机结构安全的关键因素。随着风力涡轮机大型化的趋势,DTU 10 兆瓦风力涡轮机已成为主流机型。茄克式基础因其刚性高、适用水深范围广而被广泛使用。因此,我们对 DTU 10 MW 夹套型海上风力涡轮机进行了比例实验,以揭示其结构的动态特性。实验结果表明,风荷载主导了结构响应的平均值。在风和波浪的耦合作用下,风载荷抑制了结构一阶频率和波浪频率的响应。风荷载和波浪荷载都会影响结构响应的振幅。塔顶位移和地基弯矩的响应振幅均小于风力和波浪单独作用时的平方根之和(SRSS)。在极端风速下,塔顶位移的振幅为 SRSS 值的 75%,而地基弯矩的振幅仅为 SRSS 值的 67%。
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引用次数: 0
Imitation reinforcement learning energy management for electric vehicles with hybrid energy storage system 混合动力储能系统电动汽车的仿真强化学习能源管理
IF 10.1 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-11-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124832
Weirong Liu , Pengfei Yao , Yue Wu , Lijun Duan , Heng Li , Jun Peng
Deep reinforcement learning has become a promising method for the energy management of electric vehicles. However, deep reinforcement learning relies on a large amount of trial-and-error training to acquire near-optimal performance. An adversarial imitation reinforcement learning energy management strategy is proposed for electric vehicles with hybrid energy storage system to minimize the cost of battery capacity loss. Firstly, the reinforcement learning exploration is guided by expert knowledge, which is generated by dynamic programming under various standard driving conditions. The expert knowledge is represented as the optimal power allocation mapping. Secondly, at the early imitation stage, the action of the reinforcement learning agent approaches the optimal power allocation mapping rapidly by using adversarial networks. Thirdly, a dynamic imitation weight is developed according to the Discriminator of adversarial networks, making the agent transit to self-explore the near-optimal power allocation under online driving conditions. Results demonstrate that the proposed strategy can accelerate the training by 42.60% while enhancing the reward by 15.79% compared with traditional reinforcement learning. Under different test driving cycles, the proposed method can further reduce the battery capacity loss cost by 5.1%–12.4%.
深度强化学习已成为电动汽车能源管理的一种前景广阔的方法。然而,深度强化学习需要依赖大量的试错训练才能获得接近最优的性能。本文提出了一种对抗式模仿强化学习能源管理策略,适用于采用混合储能系统的电动汽车,以最大限度地降低电池容量损失的成本。首先,强化学习探索由专家知识指导,专家知识是在各种标准驾驶条件下通过动态编程生成的。专家知识表现为最优功率分配映射。其次,在早期模仿阶段,强化学习代理的行动通过对抗网络迅速接近最优功率分配映射。第三,根据对抗网络的判别器(Discriminator)开发动态模仿权重,使代理能够在在线驾驶条件下自我探索接近最优的功率分配。结果表明,与传统的强化学习相比,所提出的策略可以加快 42.60% 的训练速度,同时提高 15.79% 的奖励。在不同的测试驾驶周期下,所提出的方法可进一步降低电池容量损耗成本 5.1%-12.4%。
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引用次数: 0
Divide and conquer: Spectral-splitting and utilization of thermal radiation from waste heat in the steel industry 分而治之:钢铁工业余热的光谱分裂和热辐射利用
IF 10.1 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124836
Haoming Li , Shuaibin Wan , Lu Wang , Jiyun Zhao , Dongxu Ji
Approximately 35 % high-temperature waste heat in the steel industry is carried by blast furnace slag and steelmaking slag, and thermal radiation is a primary pathway for this waste heat to dissipate into the ambient environment. Thermophotovoltaic (TPV) systems can convert short-wavelength thermal radiation into electrical energy, but the long-wavelength radiation is still wasted. Here, this work introduces a concept of spectral-splitting (SS) for full-spectrum thermal radiation utilization, allowing simultaneous waste heat recovery by TPV and heat-to-power methods such as Stirling engine (SE). To further demonstrate this concept, an SS TPV-SE system is designed. An optical transmission window of 0–1.7 μm is applied for TPV, and an over 5 μm absorption window is applied for SE. Results show that, with a 0.1 × 1 m molten slag chute, the SS TPV-SE system yields an output power of over 1300 W and achieves an overall efficiency of around 19 %, resulting in an about 58 % improvement compared to the standalone TPV system, and leads to a CO2 emission reduction of 7516 kg/year. Provided the improved energy efficiency and environmental sustainability, the spectral-splitting concept presented in this work provides a promising approach to enhancing waste heat recovery in the steel industry.
钢铁工业中约有 35% 的高温废热是由高炉矿渣和炼钢废渣携带的,热辐射是这些废热散失到环境中的主要途径。热光电(TPV)系统可以将短波热辐射转化为电能,但长波辐射仍被浪费。在此,这项工作引入了光谱分裂(SS)的概念,以实现热辐射的全光谱利用,从而使冠捷光伏系统和斯特林发动机(SE)等热能转换为电能的方法能够同时回收废热。为了进一步证明这一概念,我们设计了一个 SS 冠捷-SE 系统。冠捷变压器采用 0-1.7 μm 的光学透射窗口,SE 采用 5 μm 以上的吸收窗口。结果表明,在 0.1 × 1 米熔渣槽的条件下,SS 冠捷-SE 系统的输出功率超过 1300 瓦,总效率约为 19%,与独立的冠捷系统相比提高了约 58%,每年可减少二氧化碳排放量 7516 千克。在提高能源效率和环境可持续性的前提下,这项工作中提出的光谱分光概念为加强钢铁行业的余热回收提供了一种前景广阔的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Explainable deeply-fused nets electricity demand prediction model: Factoring climate predictors for accuracy and deeper insights with probabilistic confidence interval and point-based forecasts 可解释的深度融合网电力需求预测模型:将气候预测因素考虑在内,利用概率置信区间和基于点的预测实现准确性和更深入的洞察力
IF 10.1 1区 工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-11-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124763
Sujan Ghimire , Mohanad S. AL-Musaylh , Thong Nguyen-Huy , Ravinesh C. Deo , Rajendra Acharya , David Casillas-Pérez , Zaher Mundher Yaseen , Sancho Salcedo-Sanz
Electricity consumption has stochastic variabilities driven by the energy market volatility. The capability to predict electricity demand that captures stochastic variances and uncertainties is significantly important in the planning, operation and regulation of national electricity markets. This study has proposed an explainable deeply-fused nets electricity demand prediction model that factors in the climate-based predictors for enhanced accuracy and energy market insight analysis, generating point-based and confidence interval predictions of daily electricity demand. The proposed hybrid approach is built using Deeply Fused Nets (FNET) that comprises of Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Bidirectional Long-Short Term Memory (BILSTM) Network with residual connection. The study then contributes to a new deep fusion model that integrates intermediate representations of the base networks (fused output being the input of the remaining part of each base network) to perform these combinations deeply over several intermediate representations to enhance the demand predictions. The results are evaluated with statistical metrics and graphical representations of predicted and observed electricity demand, benchmarked with standalone models i.e., BILSTM, LSTMCNN, deep neural network, multi-layer perceptron, multivariate adaptive regression spline, kernel ridge regression and Gaussian process of regression. The end part of the proposed FNET model applies residual bootstrapping where final residuals are computed from predicted and observed demand to generate the 95% prediction intervals, analysed using probabilistic metrics to quantify the uncertainty associated with FNETS objective model. To enhance the FNET model’s transparency, the SHapley Additive explanation (SHAP) method has been applied to elucidate the relationships between electricity demand and climate-based predictor variables. The suggested model analysis reveals that the preceding hour’s electricity demand and evapotranspiration were the most influential factors that positively impacting current electricity demand. These findings underscore the FNET model’s capacity to yield accurate and insightful predictions, advocating its utility in predicting electricity demand and analysis of energy markets for decision-making.
受能源市场波动的影响,电力消费具有随机变化性。能够捕捉到随机变化和不确定性的电力需求预测能力对于国家电力市场的规划、运营和监管具有重要意义。本研究提出了一种可解释的深度融合网电力需求预测模型,该模型将基于气候的预测因素考虑在内,以提高准确性和能源市场洞察分析,生成基于点和置信区间的每日电力需求预测。所提出的混合方法采用了深度融合网络(FNET),该网络由卷积神经网络(CNN)和具有残差连接的双向长短期记忆(BILSTM)网络组成。这项研究随后提出了一种新的深度融合模型,该模型整合了基础网络的中间表征(融合输出是每个基础网络剩余部分的输入),在多个中间表征上深度执行这些组合,以增强需求预测。结果通过预测和观测电力需求的统计指标和图形表示进行评估,并与独立模型(即 BILSTM、LSTMCNN、深度神经网络、多层感知器、多元自适应回归样条线、核岭回归和高斯回归过程)进行比较。拟议 FNET 模型的末端部分采用了残差引导法,即通过预测需求和观测需求计算最终残差,生成 95% 的预测区间,并使用概率指标进行分析,以量化与 FNETS 目标模型相关的不确定性。为了提高 FNET 模型的透明度,采用了 SHapley 加法解释(SHAP)方法来阐明电力需求与基于气候的预测变量之间的关系。建议的模型分析表明,前一小时的电力需求和蒸发蒸腾作用是对当前电力需求产生积极影响的最大影响因素。这些发现强调了 FNET 模型能够产生准确而有洞察力的预测结果,从而证明了该模型在预测电力需求和分析能源市场决策方面的实用性。
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引用次数: 0
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Applied Energy
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