Black Carbon (BC), generated mainly by the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, reduces snow albedo by increasing solar radiation absorption, which enhances surface warming and accelerates snow ablation. This effect is particularly relevant in snow-dominated basins near emission sources. However, limited atmospheric and depositional BC measurements restrict the assessment of its spatial and temporal variability in mountain catchments. This study estimates past (2006–2022) and future (2023–2035) atmospheric BC levels in the Juncalillo River basin, Central Andes of Chile. BC concentrations in snow (BCCS) were inferred using an asymptotic radiative transfer model (ART) and subsequently used to estimate atmospheric BC through a statistical model. Future BC was projected under two contrasting scenarios: (1) climate change conditions using the IPSL-CM5A-MR GCM with Quantile Delta Mapping, and (2) increased vehicular traffic on the CH-60 road (primary emission source in the basin). BCCS ranged from 160 to 520 ng g−1, with 11–20 % higher values within 1 km of the road. Atmospheric BC in 2006–2022 averaged 0.12 μg m−3 at the basin scale, with a non-significant increasing trend. Climate change projections suggest reduced BC (mean 0.10 μg m−3) with a significant negative trend, whereas the traffic-based scenario predicts an increase to 0.21 μg m−3 and a significant positive trend. These contrasting outcomes highlight the need to explicitly consider BC emission sources when evaluating future cryosphere changes in mountain basins.
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