This study evaluates the sensitivity of the GEOS-Chem atmospheric transport model to three CO2 surface flux databases—GOSAT-IM, NASA-GEOS, and NOAA CarbonTracker (NOAA-CT)—in simulating the tropospheric CO2 seasonal cycle during 2010–2014. Model outputs, generated using common anthropogenic emissions and meteorological forcing, were compared against NOAA-ESRL GLOBALVIEW in situ observations from 54 stations worldwide. All simulations coherently reproduced the observed latitudinal gradient, with high CO2 concentrations (greater than 395 ppm) in the northern sub-polar region driven by fossil fuel emissions and shallow winter boundary layers, and lower concentrations (below 390 ppm) over the southern oceans due to strong uptake and vertical mixing. Among the simulations, the one using NOAA-CT input data showed the highest correlation (greater than 0.95) with observations in the northern mid-latitudes. This high correlation is attributed to the fluxes being constrained by actual observations. The simulation with GOSAT also captured the seasonal amplitudes in the northern hemisphere, although with lesser agreement, while the simulation with NASA-GEOS underestimated observed amplitudes in the tropics. Regional discrepancies, especially in the tropical and southern hemispheric regions, highlight the influence of convective processes and uncertainties in the flux datasets. Horizontal advection dominated seasonal variability at polar stations, whereas vertical transport was more important in the tropics. These findings emphasize the need for improved time-varying flux products, better parameterizations for vertical mixing, and the integration of new satellite observations to reduce model biases. This study highlights the crucial role of surface flux datasets, particularly the spatiotemporal resolution and observational constraints embedded in them in simulating the global CO2 seasonal cycle. Among the evaluated datasets, NOAA-CT most accurately captured the phase, amplitude, and transport-driven dynamics of atmospheric CO2, reinforcing its utility in model-data for carbon cycle assessments.
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