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Determinants of Jeonse Prices in Gangnam District: Machine Learning and Explainable Artificial Intelligence Approach 江南地区全租房价格的决定因素:机器学习和可解释的人工智能方法
Pub Date : 2023-08-31 DOI: 10.24957/hsr.2023.31.3.127
Tae-Young Kim, Doojin Ryu, Eunil Park
This study employs a machine learning model with a black box nature to explore the variables influencing Jeonse apartment prices in the Gangnam district. While traditional real estate finance has relied on Linear Regression, recent advancements have been made by sophisticated machine learning models such as XGBoost, leading to heightened performance. Nevertheless, the inherent opacity of XGBoost poses challenges in comprehending the factors guiding Jeonse prices. Addressing this limitation, we apply TreeSHAP, an eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) technique, to the XGBoost model, thus elucidating its contributions and facilitating an in-depth analysis of the determinants governing Jeonse prices in the Gangnam district. Our experiments confirm that XGBoost achieves superior performance, compared to linear regression. We delve into influential determinants such as the construction date, major construction companies, and transportation convenience via XAI. This study demonstrates that enhancing the reliability and usability of machine learning can improve the explanatory power of the Jeonse real estate market and its price determinants.
本研究采用具有黑箱性质的机器学习模型,对影响江南地区全租房价格的变量进行了研究。虽然传统的房地产金融依赖于线性回归,但最近的进步是由复杂的机器学习模型(如XGBoost)取得的,从而提高了性能。然而,XGBoost固有的不透明性给理解全租房价格的指导因素带来了挑战。为了解决这一限制,我们将TreeSHAP(一种可解释人工智能(XAI)技术)应用于XGBoost模型,从而阐明了它的贡献,并促进了对江南地区全租金价格决定因素的深入分析。我们的实验证实,与线性回归相比,XGBoost实现了卓越的性能。我们通过XAI深入研究了有影响的决定因素,如施工日期,主要施工公司和交通便利。本研究表明,提高机器学习的可靠性和可用性可以提高全濑房地产市场及其价格决定因素的解释力。
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引用次数: 0
The Effects of Elderly Household Characteristics on Residency in Universal Design Housing 通用设计住宅中老年住户特征对居住的影响
Pub Date : 2023-08-31 DOI: 10.24957/hsr.2023.31.3.5
Hyeon-Taek Park, Jin-Yhup Kim
Korea is facing the impending transition into a super-aged society, where over 20% of the total population is comprised of individuals aged 65 and older. In this trend, housing for the elderly is one of the most important issues for stable retirement design. This study examines the living conditions of elderly households aged 65 and above in Korea, focusing on low-income and disabled households, which are considered vulnerable groups. To accomplish this, we analyzed empirical data from 2020 Korea Housing Survey using binary logistic regression. The findings confirm that low-income and disabled elderly households are the most vulnerable group concerning their residence in housing with universal design. These households tend to live in homes with insufficient universal design, and face challenges in meeting their daily needs while enduring poor living environments. This study provides policy implications for the application of universal design in housing for Aging in Place (AIP) of the elderly households, whose numbers are expected to increase significantly in the future.
65岁以上老人占总人口的20%以上,韩国即将进入超高龄社会。在这种趋势下,老年人住房是稳定退休设计的最重要问题之一。本研究以被认为是弱势群体的低收入和残疾家庭为对象,对韩国65岁以上老人家庭的生活状况进行了调查。为了实现这一点,我们使用二元逻辑回归分析了2020年韩国住房调查的实证数据。研究结果证实,低收入及残障老人家庭在通用设计住宅居住方面是最脆弱的群体。这些家庭往往居住在通用设计不足的房屋中,在满足日常需求方面面临挑战,同时忍受恶劣的生活环境。本研究为在未来高龄住户数目将显著增加的情况下,将通用设计应用于安老屋(AIP)提供政策启示。
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引用次数: 0
A New Approach to Establishing an Apartment Price Index in Seoul based on Blinder-Oaxaca Decomposition 基于Blinder-Oaxaca分解的首尔公寓价格指数建立新方法
Pub Date : 2023-08-31 DOI: 10.24957/hsr.2023.31.3.93
Hyung Joon Chung, Jihee Ann
We establish a house price index for Seoul based on a Fisher Ideal aggregation of a two-way Blinder-Oaxaca (BO) decomposition, the FIBO index. Applying the BO decomposition to the apartment market decomposes the intercity differences in the mean house prices into two parts: (i) differences that are due to the differences in housing characteristics across areas (endowment effects) and (ii) differences that arise from the interarea differences in implicit prices of those characteristics (coefficient effects). Using actual transaction data for apartments in Seoul from 2017 to 2022, the FIBO index is constructed based on the estimated coefficient effects. Robustness tests show that our method is far less influenced by changes in sample sizes and selection of the reference. We also show that the FIBO index more accurately reflects the actual movement and fluctuation of apartment prices compared to existing indices, which suggests that the FIBO index could serve as a good complementary house price index.
我们基于双向Blinder-Oaxaca (BO)分解的Fisher理想聚合,即FIBO指数,建立了首尔的房价指数。将BO分解应用于公寓市场,将城市间平均房价的差异分解为两部分:(i)由于区域间住房特征的差异而产生的差异(禀赋效应)和(ii)由于这些特征的隐含价格的区域间差异而产生的差异(系数效应)。FIBO指数以2017 ~ 2022年首尔地区公寓的实际交易数据为基础,根据推测的系数效应构建而成。稳健性检验表明,我们的方法受样本量变化和参考文献选择的影响要小得多。我们还发现FIBO指数比现有指数更准确地反映了公寓价格的实际运动和波动,这表明FIBO指数可以作为一个很好的补充房价指数。
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引用次数: 0
Why Do Elderly Households Not Want to Modify Their Homes?: Focusing on Seoul 长者家庭为何不愿改造居所?〇以首尔为中心
Pub Date : 2023-08-31 DOI: 10.24957/hsr.2023.31.3.33
In Sook Kim, Jun-Hyung Kim
It is neither financially feasible to place all the elderly population in need of care into welfare facilities nor will it be welcomed by the elderly considering their preference for aging in place. Ultimately, it is essential to undertake home modification on the house that the elderly currently live in to ensure a safer and more convenient environment. The modification must be carried out on the premise of the consent of the elderly living in it, but many elderly people are in a contradictory situation where they do not feel the need for home modification. This study analyzes data from the 2021 Korea Housing Survey conducted jointly by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport and the Seoul Metropolitan Government to examine which factors determine the needs of the elderly for home modification. The result shows that one of the reasons for not renovating houses is that their current housings are relatively in good condition. However, possibility of not feeling the need for home modification is clearly observed even though the housing is not in good shape. The reasons include cases where physical aging has not progressed to the point of requiring home modification, adapted to the discomforts of their homes over years of residence, their adult children provide support in uncomfortable or risky situations, and financially not able to bear the home modification costs. This underscores that even if the elderly do not require home modification, the modification should be carried on when an objective evaluation of the safety and convenience of their housing deems renovations necessary.
把所有需要照顾的长者都安置在福利设施,在经济上既不可行,而考虑到长者对安老的偏好,亦不会受到他们的欢迎。最后,必须对老年人目前居住的房子进行家居改造,以确保一个更安全、更方便的环境。改造必须在征得居住在其中的老人同意的前提下进行,但很多老人却处于一种矛盾的局面,他们觉得没有必要进行改造。该研究分析了国土交通部和首尔市共同进行的“2021年韩国住宅调查”的数据,分析了决定老年人对住宅改造需求的因素。结果表明,不进行房屋改造的原因之一是他们目前的房屋状况相对较好。然而,即使房屋状况不佳,也有可能感觉不到房屋改造的需要。原因包括身体老化尚未发展到需要改装房屋的地步,在居住多年后已经适应了家中的不适,他们的成年子女在不舒服或有风险的情况下提供支持,以及经济上无法承担改装房屋的费用。这表明,即使老人没有要求进行住宅改造,但在对其住宅的安全性和便利性进行客观评价后,也应该进行住宅改造。
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引用次数: 0
A Study on the Comparison of Development Gains Distribution Effects of Privately-Owned House with Public Purpose 私房与公房发展收益分配效应比较研究
Pub Date : 2023-08-31 DOI: 10.24957/hsr.2023.31.3.63
Seong-Young Lee, Chang-heum Byeon
This study confirmed the effect of redeeming development gains from privately owned houses with public purpose and public sale houses by comparing the distribution ratio of development gains taken by the public and by individuals. Using the A2-1 block in Namyanrposegju’s Byeolnae district as a case site, the degree of distribution of development profits by each type is compared when the units are sold six years after moving in. As a result, the general type of public sale house (84.9%) is the type of housing for which the initial buyer takes more than 50% of the development profit, followed by the Newlyweds Hope Town B type (30% loan, 2 children) (73.4%), and the sharing type of public sale house (65%). The land leased house not only has minimal development gains taken by the initial buyer, but it is also likely that the original value of the building will be eroded due to increased depreciation costs over time. This study is meaningful as it can provide the basic data to compare the development gains distribution effects of the current intermediate housing model before developing various intermediate housing models that properly share development gains and continuously supply low-cost housing.
本研究通过比较公共和个人获得的发展收益的分配比例,证实了将私人住宅的发展收益赎回为公共用途住宅和公售住宅的效果。以南延坡州市别内区A2-1街区为例,比较了入住6年后出售的各种类型的开发利润分配情况。因此,一般类型的公售住宅(84.9%)是首次购房者获得50%以上开发利润的住宅类型,其次是新婚夫妇希望镇B型(30%贷款,2个孩子)(73.4%)和共享型公售住宅(65%)。土地租赁房不仅对最初的买家来说只有最小的开发收益,而且随着时间的推移,由于折旧成本的增加,建筑物的原始价值很可能会受到侵蚀。本研究的意义在于可以为比较现有中间住房模式的发展收益分配效果提供基础数据,从而开发出各种适当分享发展收益并持续供应低成本住房的中间住房模式。
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引用次数: 0
Depression during the Covid-19 Pandemic: Are there Differences by Type of Housing and Housing Tenure? Covid-19大流行期间的抑郁症:住房类型和住房使用权是否存在差异?
Pub Date : 2023-05-30 DOI: 10.24957/hsr.2023.31.2.73
Chaeyoung Yoon, Jangik Jin
Living environment can be a significant factor that increases individual depression during the Covid-19 period. In a special situation where the time spent at home is extended, the characteristics of the house itself may exacerbate the negative psychological state of residents. This is because high-density housing not only makes it difficult to maintain the social distancing, but also increases anxiety of infection from neighbors, which can amplify feelings of depression. Additionally, the overall economic downturn due to the Covid-19 could present more serious potential threat to tenants than to homeowners. With this perspective, this study empirically analyzes the direct and indirect effects of residents’ housing type and housing tenure on depression caused by Covid-19 pandemic through the 2020 Seoul Survey data. Path analysis of the structural equation models is used to explain the complex relationship between variables. In addition, gender and age are classified to determine whether different characteristics appear between each housing and depression. Our results show that living in an apt is negatively related to the residents’ depression. However, findings show that housing tenure is not associated with the depression during the pandemic. The results of this study are meaningful in that we studied how people’s residence is related to depression in the prolonged Covid-19 period by empirical data.
在新冠肺炎期间,生活环境可能是增加个体抑郁的一个重要因素。在家庭时间延长的特殊情况下,房屋本身的特点可能会加剧居民的消极心理状态。这是因为高密度住宅不仅难以保持社会距离,而且会增加对邻居感染的焦虑,从而加剧抑郁感。此外,新冠肺炎导致的整体经济衰退可能对租户构成比房主更严重的潜在威胁。基于此视角,本研究通过2020年首尔调查数据,实证分析了居民住房类型和住房使用权对新冠肺炎大流行抑郁的直接和间接影响。结构方程模型的通径分析用于解释变量之间的复杂关系。此外,对性别和年龄进行分类,以确定每个住房和萧条之间是否出现不同的特征。研究结果表明,居住在公寓与居民的抑郁呈负相关。然而,调查结果表明,在大流行期间,住房使用权与经济萧条无关。本研究的结果是有意义的,因为我们通过实证数据研究了Covid-19长期期间人们的居住与抑郁的关系。
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引用次数: 0
Is Public Rental Housing a Stepping Stone for Young Adults’ Housing?: Effect of Rental Housing Type on the Intention to Achieve Homeownership and the Mediation Effect of Residential Satisfaction 公租房是年轻人住屋的跳板吗?:租赁住房类型对住房拥有意愿的影响及居住满意度的中介作用
Pub Date : 2023-05-30 DOI: 10.24957/hsr.2023.31.2.43
Hanming Gu, Kabsung . Kim
Young-adult single-person households have emerged as a socially vulnerable group facing housing instability in Korea. To improve insufficient housing policies for this social group, we must evaluate existing policies and provide feedback in a timely manner. In this study, we investigate the effectiveness of housing welfare programs targeting young adults, considering the increase in the supply of public rental housing for them. This study estimated the effect of residing in public rental housing on the intention to achieve homeownership and the mediation effect of residential satisfaction by employing structural equation modeling. The results confirm the following findings. First, when controlling households’ sociodemographic conditions, satisfaction with housing conditions is higher in public rental housing than in private rental housing. Second, high residential satisfaction among young-adult single-person households residing in public rental housing has a significant positive effect on their intention to achieve homeownership through high satisfaction with housing conditions. These findings suggest that public rental housing is an effective housing policy and a stepping stone toward homeownership for young-adult single-person households. This study concludes by emphasizing the necessity for a public rental housing policy considering these policy outcomes.
在韩国,单身青年家庭已经成为面临住房不稳定的社会弱势群体。为了改善针对这一社会群体的住房政策不足,我们必须评估现有政策并及时提供反馈。在本研究中,我们考察了针对年轻人的住房福利计划的有效性,考虑到公共租赁住房供应的增加。本研究运用结构方程模型,评估公租房居住对居者有其屋意愿的影响,以及居住满意度的中介效应。研究结果证实了以下发现。首先,在控制住户社会人口条件的情况下,公共租赁住房的住房条件满意度高于私人租赁住房。第二,居住在公共租赁住房的单身青年家庭居住满意度高,对其通过居住条件的高满意度实现居者有其屋的意愿有显著的正向影响。这些发现表明,公共租赁住房是一项有效的住房政策,也是年轻单身家庭拥有住房的踏脚石。本研究最后强调,考虑到这些政策结果,制定公共租赁住房政策的必要性。
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引用次数: 1
A Study on Long-Term Housing Demand by Region using the Demographic and Household based Mankiw-Weil Method 基于人口统计和住户的Mankiw-Weil方法的区域长期住房需求研究
Pub Date : 2023-05-30 DOI: 10.24957/hsr.2023.31.2.5
Hyun-jun Park, Changha Jin
We attempt to analyze longitudinal housing demand with the number of population and number of household size from the Korea Housing Survey from 2016 to 2020 using the Mankiw-Weil Method. We also include singles and couples in the young and the old age group to identify the relative housing demand. Furthermore, we extend our analysis to 17 regional housing markets and examine the regional housing demand to confirm whether heterogeneity of regional housing demand exists. Using the machine learning method, we also provide the relative importance of variables influencing housing demand. Thus, we expect to provide an efficient housing policy by monitoring critical changes in the influential variables affecting housing demand.
我们尝试使用Mankiw-Weil方法分析2016年至2020年韩国住房调查中人口数量和家庭规模数量的纵向住房需求。我们也包括单身人士和夫妇在青年和老年群体,以确定相对的住房需求。进一步,我们将分析扩展到17个区域住房市场,并对区域住房需求进行检验,以确认区域住房需求是否存在异质性。利用机器学习方法,我们还提供了影响住房需求的变量的相对重要性。因此,我们期望通过监测影响住房需求的重要变量的关键变化来提供有效的住房政策。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring the Nonlinear Relationship between Development Density and Housing Price: Focusing on eXplainable AI (XAI) 开发密度与房价非线性关系探讨——以可解释AI (XAI)为中心
Pub Date : 2023-05-30 DOI: 10.24957/hsr.2023.31.2.133
J. Seo, Mihwa Lim, Sanguk Han, S. U. Purwaningati, Jeongseob Kim
This study aimed to investigate the association between development density and housing prices in Seoul, utilizing a machine learning driven hedonic price model. The model employed actual transaction data of high-rise condominiums (apartments) spanning from January 2019 to December 2021. The study employed CatBoost algorithm and eXplainable AI techniques (SHAP) to explore the non-linear relationships between floor area ratio(FAR) and housing prices. The findings revealed that overall FAR had a negative relationship with housing prices for both general apartments and mixed-use development. However, the negative impact of FAR was relatively small in large-scale development. Furthermore, the negative impact of FAR may not be significant in some high-end mixed-use development. These findings imply the importance of proposing appropriate site plans to ensure a desirable residential environment when high-density development is necessary.
本研究旨在利用机器学习驱动的享乐价格模型,调查首尔的开发密度和房价之间的关系。该模型采用了2019年1月至2021年12月的高层公寓(公寓)实际交易数据。该研究采用CatBoost算法和可解释人工智能技术(SHAP)来探索容积率(FAR)与房价之间的非线性关系。研究结果显示,总体而言,无论是普通公寓还是混合用途开发项目,FAR都与房价呈负相关。然而,在大规模开发中,FAR的负面影响相对较小。此外,在一些高端混合用途发展项目中,FAR的负面影响可能并不显著。这些发现表明,当需要进行高密度发展时,建议适当的地盘规划以确保理想的居住环境的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
A Study on Young People’s Preference for Public Housing for Sale: Focusing on Perception of Housing and Demographic Characteristics 年轻人对公房的偏好研究:基于住房认知与人口特征
Pub Date : 2023-05-30 DOI: 10.24957/hsr.2023.31.2.109
Eun Kyeol Ko, Jeong-Ran Lee
In order to solve the housing problem of young people, the government announced a plan to supply public housing for sale that combine affordable housing prices and groundbreaking mortgage support. In this study, a survey was conducted to understand the young people's preference for the newly proposed public housing for sale, and the housing perception and demographic characteristics of young people who prefer public housing for sale were analyzed. In addition, through a survey on the policy direction and detailed conditions, it was intended to propose a model of public housing for sale that young people want. The results of analysis are summarized as follows. First, as a result of the survey, 49.8% of the respondents preferred public housing for sale, and such a high preference indicates the need to expand the supply of affordable public housing for sale. Second, since there are differences of opinion on the detailed conditions related to the benefits and restrictions of public housing for sale, it is necessary to set reasonable standards. Third, for young people with relatively lower assets, it is essential to provide cheonsei loans and public rental housing support to secure the current residential stability. Fourth, it is important to supply public housing with high-quality residential and educational environments for young people planning to marry and give birth. The results of the study are meaningful in that they clarify whether public housing for sale can serve as an alternative to solving the housing problem of young people, and present guidelines such as policy direction and detailed conditions.
为了解决年轻人的住房问题,政府发表了将负担得起的住宅价格和开创性的抵押贷款支持相结合的公共住宅供应方案。本研究通过调查了解年轻人对新提出的公共住房的偏好,并分析偏好公共住房的年轻人的住房感知和人口特征。此外,通过对政策方向和具体条件的调查,提出一种年轻人想要的公共住房出售模式。分析结果总结如下:首先,调查结果显示,49.8%的受访者倾向于出售公共住房,如此高的偏好表明需要扩大可供出售的经济适用房的供应。其次,由于对公共住房出售的好处和限制的详细条件存在意见分歧,因此有必要制定合理的标准。第三,对于资产相对较低的年轻人,为了确保目前的居住稳定性,有必要提供清世贷款和公共租赁住房支持。第四,重要的是为计划结婚和生育的年轻人提供高质量的居住和教育环境。研究结果不仅明确了出售公共住房是否可以作为解决年轻人住房问题的另一种选择,而且提出了政策方向和具体条件等指导方针,具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
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Korean Association for Housing Policy Studies
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