Pub Date : 2018-11-01DOI: 10.1109/POWERCON.2018.8601818
Haolin Wang, Yongjun Zhang, Haipeng Mao
Electric vehicle load forecasting is the technical basis for the development of electric vehicle charging strategies and the location planning of charging piles. It is of great significance for the development of smart cities and intelligent transportation. This paper proposes a load forecasting method for electric vehicles based on the time charging probability. Firstly, the main factors affecting load forecasting are described. Secondly, the electric cars are divided into four categories according to typical travel characteristics, and a mathematical model of the corresponding influence factors is established. Then, the charging probability of the electric vehicle at each time is derived, and the charging load of the electric vehicle is calculated by the Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, the validity of the method is verified by using the electric vehicle load forecast in Shenzhen city as an example.
{"title":"Load Forecasting Method of EVs Based on Time Charging Probability","authors":"Haolin Wang, Yongjun Zhang, Haipeng Mao","doi":"10.1109/POWERCON.2018.8601818","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/POWERCON.2018.8601818","url":null,"abstract":"Electric vehicle load forecasting is the technical basis for the development of electric vehicle charging strategies and the location planning of charging piles. It is of great significance for the development of smart cities and intelligent transportation. This paper proposes a load forecasting method for electric vehicles based on the time charging probability. Firstly, the main factors affecting load forecasting are described. Secondly, the electric cars are divided into four categories according to typical travel characteristics, and a mathematical model of the corresponding influence factors is established. Then, the charging probability of the electric vehicle at each time is derived, and the charging load of the electric vehicle is calculated by the Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, the validity of the method is verified by using the electric vehicle load forecast in Shenzhen city as an example.","PeriodicalId":260947,"journal":{"name":"2018 International Conference on Power System Technology (POWERCON)","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115875776","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-11-01DOI: 10.1109/POWERCON.2018.8601690
Hu Tao, Li Fang, Li Yalou, Zhou Xiaoxin
The integrated energy system has become a new trend in the energy supply mode. Modeling and simulation is an important method to guide the planning and operation of integrated energy system. First, the simulation requirements of integrated energy systems of various regional scope are analyzed. Second, a universal and open simulation system for the integrated energy system is designed and the main components, functions and the key techniques of the system are introduced in detail. This system can be applied for the integrated energy system including electric, gas and heat systems and several coupling equipments are considered. The function will include production simulation analysis, energy flow analysis and dynamic analysis. The system is designed easily to implement and extensible with fully functions. It is suitable for the development of general commercial software and will show great application prospect.
{"title":"The Design of the Simulation System for the Integrated Energy System","authors":"Hu Tao, Li Fang, Li Yalou, Zhou Xiaoxin","doi":"10.1109/POWERCON.2018.8601690","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/POWERCON.2018.8601690","url":null,"abstract":"The integrated energy system has become a new trend in the energy supply mode. Modeling and simulation is an important method to guide the planning and operation of integrated energy system. First, the simulation requirements of integrated energy systems of various regional scope are analyzed. Second, a universal and open simulation system for the integrated energy system is designed and the main components, functions and the key techniques of the system are introduced in detail. This system can be applied for the integrated energy system including electric, gas and heat systems and several coupling equipments are considered. The function will include production simulation analysis, energy flow analysis and dynamic analysis. The system is designed easily to implement and extensible with fully functions. It is suitable for the development of general commercial software and will show great application prospect.","PeriodicalId":260947,"journal":{"name":"2018 International Conference on Power System Technology (POWERCON)","volume":"8 3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124290504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The number of wind turbines connected to electric power grid is steadily increasing, which detrimentally affects the system frequency characteristics, and consequently limits the maximum penetration level of wind generation. Nowadays, contribution of wind generators to frequency control is required by system operators in many countries. In this paper, in order to increase integration proportion of wind generation, inertial response of wind turbines following frequency disturbance is analyzed from three aspects, including the physical structure, the theory of electrical machine and mechanics theory. Also, influence of wind generation on frequency characteristics is proposed. It is found that frequency problem has been the constraint condition of penetration level of wind generation, which gives rise to demand of wind turbines participating frequency control. Furthermore, countermeasure of wind generation participating frequency control is proposed. Under virtual inertia control, the rate of change of frequency(ROCOF) is reduced, and the time of frequency nadir is delayed. By adding droop control, both the frequency nadir and quasi-steady state frequency are lifted. The implementation of virtual inertia control and droop control can increase penetration level of wind generation as well as guarantee power system security.
{"title":"Influence and Countermeasure of Increasing Wind Penetration on Frequency Control","authors":"Shanshan Zhao, Qinyong Zhou, Qiang Zhao, Qian Dai, Yong Tang","doi":"10.1109/POWERCON.2018.8601611","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/POWERCON.2018.8601611","url":null,"abstract":"The number of wind turbines connected to electric power grid is steadily increasing, which detrimentally affects the system frequency characteristics, and consequently limits the maximum penetration level of wind generation. Nowadays, contribution of wind generators to frequency control is required by system operators in many countries. In this paper, in order to increase integration proportion of wind generation, inertial response of wind turbines following frequency disturbance is analyzed from three aspects, including the physical structure, the theory of electrical machine and mechanics theory. Also, influence of wind generation on frequency characteristics is proposed. It is found that frequency problem has been the constraint condition of penetration level of wind generation, which gives rise to demand of wind turbines participating frequency control. Furthermore, countermeasure of wind generation participating frequency control is proposed. Under virtual inertia control, the rate of change of frequency(ROCOF) is reduced, and the time of frequency nadir is delayed. By adding droop control, both the frequency nadir and quasi-steady state frequency are lifted. The implementation of virtual inertia control and droop control can increase penetration level of wind generation as well as guarantee power system security.","PeriodicalId":260947,"journal":{"name":"2018 International Conference on Power System Technology (POWERCON)","volume":"54 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114685371","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-11-01DOI: 10.1109/POWERCON.2018.8602119
T. Zheng, Kai Yu
The magnetically controlled shunt reactor (MCSR) is a very important reactive power compensation equipment for power grid, which has the function of smooth regulating capacity, eliminating the overvoltage of operation and submersible current. The structure of MCSR is complex, and it works in the saturation state of AC and DC mixing. The modeling is difficult and there are few references at home and abroad. This paper uses Ansoft Maxwell software to build two-dimensional finite element model of MCSR, and the external circuit editor as the excitation source of the finite element model, successfully built a simulation model which is more conducive to analyzing the characteristics of MCSR. This model is more accurate and solves the defects that other methods can't analyze accurately. Then we use this model to analyze the working characteristics of MCSR under the interaction of DC and AC-DC power sources and the working characteristics of capacitor regulation process.
{"title":"Research on the Stimulation Modeling of Magnetically Controlled Shunt Reactor","authors":"T. Zheng, Kai Yu","doi":"10.1109/POWERCON.2018.8602119","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/POWERCON.2018.8602119","url":null,"abstract":"The magnetically controlled shunt reactor (MCSR) is a very important reactive power compensation equipment for power grid, which has the function of smooth regulating capacity, eliminating the overvoltage of operation and submersible current. The structure of MCSR is complex, and it works in the saturation state of AC and DC mixing. The modeling is difficult and there are few references at home and abroad. This paper uses Ansoft Maxwell software to build two-dimensional finite element model of MCSR, and the external circuit editor as the excitation source of the finite element model, successfully built a simulation model which is more conducive to analyzing the characteristics of MCSR. This model is more accurate and solves the defects that other methods can't analyze accurately. Then we use this model to analyze the working characteristics of MCSR under the interaction of DC and AC-DC power sources and the working characteristics of capacitor regulation process.","PeriodicalId":260947,"journal":{"name":"2018 International Conference on Power System Technology (POWERCON)","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116953887","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-11-01DOI: 10.1109/POWERCON.2018.8601655
Chao Chen, Bo Que, Ziqiang Zhou, M. Cheng, Qiang Yang, Leijiao Ge
Currently Distributed Energy storage system (ESS) has a significant impact on the flexibility of medium/low voltage power distribution network to address the challenges due to growing power demand and increasing penetration of renewable energy resources. This work exploits and explicitly quantifies the potential benefit of optimal coordinated multiple ESSs to support the secure power supply of power distribution networks with distributed generations (DGs) by providing capacity services. The proposed model was compared against conventional methods and assessed in three case studies: different demand conditions, different sizing of ESSs and reactive power provisioning. The numerical result obtained from a set of simulation experiments clearly demonstrates various benefit of coordination of ESSs in supporting flexible and secure operation of power distribution networks, e.g. peak demand reduction, reactive power support.
{"title":"Cost-Benefit Analysis of Distributed Energy Storage in Distribution Grids with Renewables","authors":"Chao Chen, Bo Que, Ziqiang Zhou, M. Cheng, Qiang Yang, Leijiao Ge","doi":"10.1109/POWERCON.2018.8601655","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/POWERCON.2018.8601655","url":null,"abstract":"Currently Distributed Energy storage system (ESS) has a significant impact on the flexibility of medium/low voltage power distribution network to address the challenges due to growing power demand and increasing penetration of renewable energy resources. This work exploits and explicitly quantifies the potential benefit of optimal coordinated multiple ESSs to support the secure power supply of power distribution networks with distributed generations (DGs) by providing capacity services. The proposed model was compared against conventional methods and assessed in three case studies: different demand conditions, different sizing of ESSs and reactive power provisioning. The numerical result obtained from a set of simulation experiments clearly demonstrates various benefit of coordination of ESSs in supporting flexible and secure operation of power distribution networks, e.g. peak demand reduction, reactive power support.","PeriodicalId":260947,"journal":{"name":"2018 International Conference on Power System Technology (POWERCON)","volume":"305 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123207513","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-11-01DOI: 10.1109/POWERCON.2018.8601659
N. Hu, M. Liao, Meng Song, Zhengjun Shi, Wenfeng Chen
The fault-current limiting-type HTS cable (FCL-HTS cable) has the advantages of large surge absorption capability and small volume of the superconducting cable. This paper mainly analyze the characteristic of the urban distribution network with the FCL-HTS cable. Combined with economic analysis, the feasibility of using a FCL-HTS cable to connect with the distribution network is discussed. Based on the model of FCL-HTS cable, the characteristic of fault current and the power flow of the distribution network are analyzed. And the transient stability of the evaluated, which shows the feasibility of adopting fault-current limiting-type HTS cable in distribution network.
{"title":"Study on Operating Characteristics of Distribution Network with Fault-current Limiting-type HTS Cable","authors":"N. Hu, M. Liao, Meng Song, Zhengjun Shi, Wenfeng Chen","doi":"10.1109/POWERCON.2018.8601659","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/POWERCON.2018.8601659","url":null,"abstract":"The fault-current limiting-type HTS cable (FCL-HTS cable) has the advantages of large surge absorption capability and small volume of the superconducting cable. This paper mainly analyze the characteristic of the urban distribution network with the FCL-HTS cable. Combined with economic analysis, the feasibility of using a FCL-HTS cable to connect with the distribution network is discussed. Based on the model of FCL-HTS cable, the characteristic of fault current and the power flow of the distribution network are analyzed. And the transient stability of the evaluated, which shows the feasibility of adopting fault-current limiting-type HTS cable in distribution network.","PeriodicalId":260947,"journal":{"name":"2018 International Conference on Power System Technology (POWERCON)","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123440305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-11-01DOI: 10.1109/POWERCON.2018.8602100
Zhang Shengqiang, He Yifeng, Cai Jianlong, Wang Junwu
A novel reliability evaluation of distribution network considering the influence of typhoon with Monte Carlo simulation is proposed to describe the relationship between typhoon and distribution network reliability. Considering the random variable of the strength of the pole of the distribution network element and the load effect characteristics of electric pole, the calculation model of failure rate of pole in distribution network based on wind speed is proposed. This model calculates the failure rate of distribution network components under different wind speeds, which considers the flexural strength of mixed soil pole and the load effect of electric pole. Due to the different failure rate of components under different wind speeds, the reliability level of distribution network is different and hard to calculate. The reliability level of the distribution system in this paper is calculated by the sequential Monte Carlo simulation method. Considering the reparability and fault isolation capability of distribution network, the idea of feeder and load partition is proposed based on the characteristics of load and feeder. The real time failure rate of the components and the dynamic alternation characteristics of operation-fault-operation are considered. This reliability evaluation algorithm provides useful guidance for the design of power distribution network in the future. Finally, the IEEE RBTS BUS6 F4 feeder is taken as an example to calculate using Matlab. The results show that the reliability index of distribution network is directly related to typhoon wind speed and the method can improve the reliability of the distribution network and reduce the loss caused by bad weather.
{"title":"A New Method based on Monte Carlo simulation for Reliability Evaluation of Distribution Network Considering the Influence of Typhoon","authors":"Zhang Shengqiang, He Yifeng, Cai Jianlong, Wang Junwu","doi":"10.1109/POWERCON.2018.8602100","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/POWERCON.2018.8602100","url":null,"abstract":"A novel reliability evaluation of distribution network considering the influence of typhoon with Monte Carlo simulation is proposed to describe the relationship between typhoon and distribution network reliability. Considering the random variable of the strength of the pole of the distribution network element and the load effect characteristics of electric pole, the calculation model of failure rate of pole in distribution network based on wind speed is proposed. This model calculates the failure rate of distribution network components under different wind speeds, which considers the flexural strength of mixed soil pole and the load effect of electric pole. Due to the different failure rate of components under different wind speeds, the reliability level of distribution network is different and hard to calculate. The reliability level of the distribution system in this paper is calculated by the sequential Monte Carlo simulation method. Considering the reparability and fault isolation capability of distribution network, the idea of feeder and load partition is proposed based on the characteristics of load and feeder. The real time failure rate of the components and the dynamic alternation characteristics of operation-fault-operation are considered. This reliability evaluation algorithm provides useful guidance for the design of power distribution network in the future. Finally, the IEEE RBTS BUS6 F4 feeder is taken as an example to calculate using Matlab. The results show that the reliability index of distribution network is directly related to typhoon wind speed and the method can improve the reliability of the distribution network and reduce the loss caused by bad weather.","PeriodicalId":260947,"journal":{"name":"2018 International Conference on Power System Technology (POWERCON)","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123591738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-11-01DOI: 10.1109/POWERCON.2018.8601641
Yuanpeng Guan, Yunxiang Xie, Chenyang Hei, Yi Liang, Xuemei Wang
This paper proposes a simplified simulation and modelling tech for microgrid. This method can save simulation time and computational memory, compared with the simulation of the detail model. Firstly, the grid-tied inverter, the integrated load, and the nonlinear load in microgrid are analyzed and modeled. Next, their models are simplified as Thévenin-Norton equivalent models. Moreover, the consistency between hardware equivalent model and control equivalent model of power electronics devices is proved. Finally, the correctness of the simplified simulation and modelling tech is confirmed during voltage sag in the improved IEEE 13 Node Test Feeder system in MATLAB/SIMULINK. The results show that the outputs characteristics of the simplified models are consistent with those of their detailed models.
{"title":"Analysis on the Simplified Simulation and Modelling Tech of the Microgrid Based on Thévenin-Norton Equivalent Model","authors":"Yuanpeng Guan, Yunxiang Xie, Chenyang Hei, Yi Liang, Xuemei Wang","doi":"10.1109/POWERCON.2018.8601641","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/POWERCON.2018.8601641","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes a simplified simulation and modelling tech for microgrid. This method can save simulation time and computational memory, compared with the simulation of the detail model. Firstly, the grid-tied inverter, the integrated load, and the nonlinear load in microgrid are analyzed and modeled. Next, their models are simplified as Thévenin-Norton equivalent models. Moreover, the consistency between hardware equivalent model and control equivalent model of power electronics devices is proved. Finally, the correctness of the simplified simulation and modelling tech is confirmed during voltage sag in the improved IEEE 13 Node Test Feeder system in MATLAB/SIMULINK. The results show that the outputs characteristics of the simplified models are consistent with those of their detailed models.","PeriodicalId":260947,"journal":{"name":"2018 International Conference on Power System Technology (POWERCON)","volume":"231 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121865673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-11-01DOI: 10.1109/POWERCON.2018.8601697
Z. Huang
Traditional double closed-loop PI control and DC voltage-active power droop control are suitable for the modular multilevel converter based Multi terminal flexible DC transmission system (MMC-MTDC). However, due to the strong nonlinearity of the system and the fixed droop coefficient, the system has poor stability under transient conditions, which is prone to full load. In order to improve the anti-interference ability of MMC-MTDC system, this paper proposes an adaptive integrated coordinated control strategy, which consists of adaptive droop control and internal loop current adaptive discrete slip film variable structure control based on discrete reaching law. The control strategy replaces the original fixed coefficient droop control with adaptive droop control. The adaptive synovial variable structure control with the inner loop dq axis current error as the synovial plane is constructed based on the discrete approach law in the synchronous rotating coordinate system. Combined with the Lyapunov function, the global stability analysis of the inner loop control system is carried out. Based on Zhangbei $pm 500mathrm {k}mathrm {V}$ four-terminal flexible direct current transmission demonstration project, the simulation model of MMC-MTDC direct current transmission system was built in PSCAD/EMTDC. The simulation results of the proposed control strategy show that the control strategy can improve the adaptability and dynamic performance of the system compared with the traditional control strategy.
{"title":"Adaptive integrated coordinated control strategy for MMC-MTDC Systems","authors":"Z. Huang","doi":"10.1109/POWERCON.2018.8601697","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/POWERCON.2018.8601697","url":null,"abstract":"Traditional double closed-loop PI control and DC voltage-active power droop control are suitable for the modular multilevel converter based Multi terminal flexible DC transmission system (MMC-MTDC). However, due to the strong nonlinearity of the system and the fixed droop coefficient, the system has poor stability under transient conditions, which is prone to full load. In order to improve the anti-interference ability of MMC-MTDC system, this paper proposes an adaptive integrated coordinated control strategy, which consists of adaptive droop control and internal loop current adaptive discrete slip film variable structure control based on discrete reaching law. The control strategy replaces the original fixed coefficient droop control with adaptive droop control. The adaptive synovial variable structure control with the inner loop dq axis current error as the synovial plane is constructed based on the discrete approach law in the synchronous rotating coordinate system. Combined with the Lyapunov function, the global stability analysis of the inner loop control system is carried out. Based on Zhangbei $pm 500mathrm {k}mathrm {V}$ four-terminal flexible direct current transmission demonstration project, the simulation model of MMC-MTDC direct current transmission system was built in PSCAD/EMTDC. The simulation results of the proposed control strategy show that the control strategy can improve the adaptability and dynamic performance of the system compared with the traditional control strategy.","PeriodicalId":260947,"journal":{"name":"2018 International Conference on Power System Technology (POWERCON)","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117227667","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2018-11-01DOI: 10.1109/POWERCON.2018.8601585
Xu Fei, Wu ZhiGang
The power system load is affected by various external factors, making the short-term load have the characteristics of uncertainty and randomness. There are many factors affecting power system load forecasting, and weather conditions have the most significant impact on load forecasting. Based on the existing literature, this paper proposes a method to analyze the correlation between single meteorological factors and system load, and then comprehensively consider the impact of all meteorological factors on system load. Considering weather, rainfall, humidity and other meteorological factors. The BP algorithm has a very strong nonlinear fitting ability and can theoretically fit any complex nonlinear mapping relationship. This paper uses Python to implement the BP algorithm considering multiple meteorological factors, and predicts the load of October in a certain area of South Network. The prediction results show that compared with the traditional input of all meteorological factors as BP model, and the correlation between meteorological factors and system analysis is not analyzed, the processing method of this paper improves the accuracy of load forecasting and accelerates the algorithm. The convergence speed and learning time are reduced, which greatly improves the efficiency and has a certain guiding effect on the application of load forecasting in the actual power grid.
{"title":"Analysis of correlation between meteorological factors and short-term load forecasting based on machine learning","authors":"Xu Fei, Wu ZhiGang","doi":"10.1109/POWERCON.2018.8601585","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/POWERCON.2018.8601585","url":null,"abstract":"The power system load is affected by various external factors, making the short-term load have the characteristics of uncertainty and randomness. There are many factors affecting power system load forecasting, and weather conditions have the most significant impact on load forecasting. Based on the existing literature, this paper proposes a method to analyze the correlation between single meteorological factors and system load, and then comprehensively consider the impact of all meteorological factors on system load. Considering weather, rainfall, humidity and other meteorological factors. The BP algorithm has a very strong nonlinear fitting ability and can theoretically fit any complex nonlinear mapping relationship. This paper uses Python to implement the BP algorithm considering multiple meteorological factors, and predicts the load of October in a certain area of South Network. The prediction results show that compared with the traditional input of all meteorological factors as BP model, and the correlation between meteorological factors and system analysis is not analyzed, the processing method of this paper improves the accuracy of load forecasting and accelerates the algorithm. The convergence speed and learning time are reduced, which greatly improves the efficiency and has a certain guiding effect on the application of load forecasting in the actual power grid.","PeriodicalId":260947,"journal":{"name":"2018 International Conference on Power System Technology (POWERCON)","volume":"28 7","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120845013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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