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Labour Potential in Africa: the State and Development Prospects 非洲的劳动力潜力:国家和发展前景
Pub Date : 2019-09-30 DOI: 10.31132/2412-5717-2019-48-3-18-29
I. Matsenko
The subject of this study is the state, use and development prospects of the labour potential in the countries of Africa. For the first time in Russian African studies, last information on the current state of the employment problem in Africa, its urgency and complexity of the solution is summarized. The study shows that the impressive economic growth in many African countries over the past two decades has not been accompanied by any evident changes in employment in terms of creating new jobs and reducing unemployment and poverty. The high rates of unemployment, informal employment and working poverty have no analogues anywhere in the world. The author analyzes the causes of this phenomenon ̶ a sharp imbalance between the rapid growth of the working-age population and the creation of jobs, resulting in a huge excess of labour supply over demand, especially skilled labour. Particular attention is paid to youth unemployment, fraught with explosive growth of political instability in the society.With regard to possible ways of solving the employment problem in Africa, the successful experience in this field in a number of African countries (Ghana, Rwanda, Ethiopia) leads the author to the conclusion that at this stage the priority efforts should be aimed at creating decent jobs in the sectors and areas with prevalence of work of the poor, namely agriculture and economic activities in rural areas. In the long term, however, it is necessary to carry out a gradual transition to more productive sectors of the economy (manufacturing and the modern services sector) for creating decent jobs in them.In general, in order to create quality jobs and reduce poverty, African countries need the sustainable and inclusive economic growth, which involves structural transformation on the basis of economic diversification, including industrialization, and increasing agricultural productivity. There is no universal recipe for all countries of the continent, but a comprehensive employment policy covers a wide range of necessary steps ̶ from investing in education and vocational training to targeted measures to increase employment and social protection, including public works projects. Ultimately, the author believes, the rise of the African economy and the reduction of poverty will largely depend on the state of the workforce both in urban and rural areas.
本研究的主题是非洲国家劳动力潜力的状况、利用和发展前景。在俄罗斯非洲研究中,第一次总结了非洲就业问题的现状、解决问题的紧迫性和复杂性。这项研究表明,在过去二十年中,许多非洲国家令人印象深刻的经济增长并没有伴随着在创造新的就业机会和减少失业和贫困方面的任何明显的就业变化。高失业率、非正规就业和工作贫困在世界上任何地方都没有类似的情况。作者分析了这一现象的原因——劳动年龄人口的快速增长和就业机会的创造之间的急剧不平衡,导致劳动力供应严重过剩,特别是熟练劳动力。特别关注的是青年失业,充满了爆炸性增长的政治不稳定的社会。关于解决非洲就业问题的可能方法,一些非洲国家(加纳、卢旺达、埃塞俄比亚)在这一领域的成功经验使作者得出结论,在这个阶段,优先努力的目标应该是在穷人普遍工作的部门和领域,即农业和农村地区的经济活动,创造体面的就业机会。然而,从长期来看,有必要逐步过渡到更有生产力的经济部门(制造业和现代服务业),以便在这些部门创造体面的就业机会。总的来说,为了创造高质量的就业机会和减少贫困,非洲国家需要可持续和包容性的经济增长,这涉及在经济多样化的基础上进行结构转型,包括工业化和提高农业生产率。没有适用于非洲大陆所有国家的万能药方,但一项全面的就业政策涵盖了一系列广泛的必要步骤——从投资于教育和职业培训,到增加就业和社会保护的有针对性措施,包括公共工程项目。最终,作者认为,非洲经济的崛起和贫困的减少将在很大程度上取决于城市和农村地区的劳动力状况。
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引用次数: 1
Youth and Women Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa 撒哈拉以南非洲的青年和妇女就业
Pub Date : 2019-09-30 DOI: 10.31132/2412-5717-2019-48-3-97-106
N. Grishina
The article discusses the possibility of implementing some African countries one of the main directions of overcoming absolute poverty − employment of able-bodied population, improving the efficiency of labor. It is emphasized that the employability of youth and women played an important role in poverty reduction. The focus is on the fact that in the informal economy of Tropical Africa that the vast majority of young people and women find work. The few jobs that are created for employees in the formal sector of the economy are primarily held by men. Thus, women in Tropical Africa tend to work in unprotected employment. At the same time, the high economic activity of women in the region could be a positive factor in accelerating economic growth if productivity and working conditions improved. The author shares the opinion of sociologists, who believe that the problem of women’s employment is directly related to the opportunities of women in education. It is emphasized that in many countries of the region, the economic activity of these groups of population is influenced by traditional norms of behavior. There are many options for programs to improve the labor market and the social protection system. The preference for a programme depends on the specific circumstances, social priorities and financial capacity of the African country concerned.Examples of interaction between international structures, individual countries of the world and African organizations in solving the problem of employment of youth and women of the continent are given.
文章探讨了一些非洲国家可能实施的克服绝对贫困的主要方向之一——就业健全人口,提高劳动效率。报告强调,青年和妇女的就业能力在减少贫穷方面发挥了重要作用。重点是在热带非洲的非正规经济中,绝大多数青年和妇女都找到了工作。在经济的正规部门为雇员创造的为数不多的工作主要由男子担任。因此,热带非洲的妇女往往从事无保护的工作。同时,如果生产力和工作条件得到改善,该区域妇女的高经济活动可以成为加速经济增长的一个积极因素。作者同意社会学家的观点,认为妇女的就业问题与妇女受教育的机会直接相关。强调指出,在本区域许多国家,这些人口群体的经济活动受到传统行为准则的影响。改善劳动力市场和社会保障体系的方案有很多选择。对方案的偏好取决于有关非洲国家的具体情况、社会优先事项和财政能力。文中列举了国际结构、世界各国和非洲组织在解决非洲大陆青年和妇女就业问题方面相互作用的例子。
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引用次数: 0
Semantic Matrix as a Conformation and Development Basis of an Authentic Malagasy Civilization (Review of the book by A.N. Moseyko “Madagascar. Special aspects of the cultural and civilizational development”) 语义矩阵:真正马达加斯加文明的构象和发展基础(评A.N.莫塞科《马达加斯加》一书)。文化和文明发展的特殊方面”)
Pub Date : 2019-09-30 DOI: 10.31132/2412-5717-2019-48-3-116-125
T. Kochanova
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引用次数: 0
“Non-Catch-up Development” of Africa. Economist’s observations on forecasts, statistical manipulations, demographic romanticism and rejuvenation of elites 非洲的“非追赶发展”。经济学家对预测、统计操纵、人口浪漫主义和精英复兴的观察
Pub Date : 2019-09-30 DOI: 10.31132/2412-5717-2019-48-3-5-17
L. Fituni
The article analyzes the long-run reliability and sustainability of the basic arguments referred to in assessing the upward development of Africa in the 21st century. The author argues that the ongoing changes in the global economy and the nature of the current transformation of the world order put in doubt that the “catch-up development” of the continent will advance exactly as foreseen by the basic African development strategies and as it is customary to present them in scientific literature. He supports his assessment by showing that some of the initial statistical estimates and projections of existing trends may have been based on a not completely correct statistical basis. Much attention is paid to a more realistic approach to the role of the “demographic dividend” in the future. The article systematizes and classifies the fundamental reasons why such miscalculations occurred and what needs to be taken into account in order to obtain to more estimates and more realistic scenarios of future development. The author insists that the “demographic dividend” does not inevitably arise by itself. For the favorable effects of the demographic dividend to occur, it is necessary to create high-quality, more productive jobs. Only in this case can the expected positive social and economic shifts follow, including the growth of the African middle class. For the first time, the economic problems of catch-up development are linked to the process of “rejuvenation of the elites” that is developing and being stimulated by a number of external players. For these purposes, external state and non-state actors may use sanctions and other restrictive measures. The author provides a classification and description of three types of behavioral patterns of African youth in politics. In African conditions understanding of those issues is crucial since young people constitute the majority of the population in a huge number of countries on the continent.
本文分析了评估21世纪非洲向上发展的基本论点的长期可靠性和可持续性。发件人认为,全球经济正在发生的变化和目前世界秩序变化的性质使人怀疑非洲大陆的“追赶式发展”是否会完全按照非洲基本发展战略所预见的和按照科学文献中惯常的方式来推进。他通过表明对现有趋势的一些初步统计估计和预测可能是基于不完全正确的统计基础来支持他的评估。对于未来“人口红利”的作用,人们非常关注一种更现实的方法。本文对发生这种误判的根本原因以及需要考虑的因素进行了系统化和分类,以便获得更多的估计和更现实的未来发展情景。作者坚持认为,“人口红利”不会自动产生。要发挥人口红利的有利作用,就必须创造高质量、生产率更高的就业岗位。只有在这种情况下,预期的积极的社会和经济变化才能随之而来,包括非洲中产阶级的增长。追赶发展的经济问题第一次与“精英复兴”的进程联系在一起,这一进程正在发展,并受到一些外部参与者的刺激。为此目的,外部国家和非国家行为体可使用制裁和其他限制性措施。作者对非洲青年政治行为模式的三种类型进行了分类和描述。在非洲的情况下,了解这些问题是至关重要的,因为青年在该大陆的许多国家中占人口的大多数。
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引用次数: 0
French-Egyptian Relations During the Presidential Board of Emmanuel Macron 马克龙总统任期内的法埃关系
Pub Date : 2019-09-30 DOI: 10.31132/2412-5717-2019-48-3-74-85
V. Filippov
The author of the article examines the goals, course and results of the official visit of the President of the French Republic Emmanuel Macron to the Arab Republic of Egypt in January 2019. The first visit of the head of the Fifth Republic to Egypt was considered under Franco-Egyptian relations in general context during the presidency of E. Macron. Relations between the two countries on the eve of the official visit are characterized as friendly and having the potential of favorable development in all spheres. However, the negotiations E. Macron with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi demonstrated that there are unresolved and quite conflicting contradictions in relations between France and Egypt. The French side points out to partners the obvious violations of human rights and freedoms in Egypt and Egyptian diplomats, in their turn, reproach French colleagues for incomplete failure to comply with the contract for the supply of Rafale attack aircraft. The author concludes that the relations of the Fifth Republic and the Arab Republic of Egypt have a favorable development prospect, despite the outlined disagreements over the settlement of the Libyan crisis and a number of other issues of international relations.
本文作者考察了法兰西共和国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙于2019年1月对阿拉伯埃及共和国进行正式访问的目标、进程和结果。法国第五共和国元首对埃及的首次访问是在马克龙总统任期内法埃关系的大背景下进行的。在正式访问前夕,两国关系的特点是友好的,在各领域都有良好发展的潜力。然而,马克龙与埃及总统塞西的谈判表明,法埃关系中存在未解决且相当矛盾的矛盾。法国方面向各伙伴指出埃及境内明显侵犯人权和自由的情况,而埃及外交官则指责法国同事完全没有遵守供应阵风攻击机的合同。作者的结论是,第五共和国和阿拉伯埃及共和国的关系具有良好的发展前景,尽管概述了在解决利比亚危机和其他一些国际关系问题上的分歧。
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引用次数: 0
Plural Trajectories: Introduction to African Futures 多元轨迹:非洲未来概论
Pub Date : 2019-06-10 DOI: 10.31132/2412-5717-2019-47-2-5-14
O'Kane David, M. Dmitri
The editors of this issue of the Journal of the Institute for African Studies introduce the theme of African futures, and insist on the plural meanings it involves as both a concept and an empirical reality. The relationship between the continent’s futures and its multiple pasts and presents are considered, and the concept of ‘trajectory’ is used to integrate those multiple African realities into an integrated picture of human agency and human action in the continent today. The editors then introduce the papers that follow in this special issue.
本期《非洲研究所杂志》的编辑们介绍了非洲未来的主题,并坚持认为它既是一个概念,也是一个经验现实,具有多重意义。考虑了非洲大陆的未来和它的多重过去和现在之间的关系,并使用“轨迹”的概念将这些多重非洲现实整合到今天非洲大陆人类机构和人类行动的综合图景中。然后,编辑们在本期特刊中介绍接下来的论文。
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引用次数: 0
Fateful Futures in the Presence of the Past: Epochalist Hopes at South Sudan’s Independence 在过去的存在下命运的未来:南苏丹独立的划时代的希望
Pub Date : 2019-06-10 DOI: 10.31132/2412-5717-2019-47-2-68-85
Timm Sureau
Hope, understood as a “temporal reorientation of knowledge” (Miyazaki 2004, 5), enacts and changes the future as a precipitate of interaction (Crapanzano 2003, 6). During South Sudan’s independence, an epochalist hope was directed towards an end of the miseries associated with Sudanese rule and government officials of the new state tried to inscribe this hope into symbols. Their idea was to create a strong relation between those symbols of hope and a new national identity, in order to bridge the epochalist anticlimax that necessarily followed the initial moment of independence. Via the examination of two examples of hope from South Sudan, and through scrutiny of the symbols of the flag and the anthem, I describe that hope in the future of South Sudan as it existed in 2011, the symbols and the nation building attempts. I conclude by returning to Frantz Fanon’s warnings against European models and an analysis of how those who follow them fall in the old trap of nationalism, an identity construction that necessarily includes and excludes. In the case of South Sudan this collapsed the country back into an old nightmare of ethnic factionalism, long-standing forms of exploitation with new beneficiaries, and new, violent, forms and acts of exclusion.
希望,被理解为“知识的时间重新定位”(Miyazaki 2004,5),作为相互作用的沉淀,制定并改变未来(Crapanzano 2003,6)。在南苏丹独立期间,一种划时代的希望被指向结束与苏丹统治相关的苦难,新国家的政府官员试图将这种希望刻入符号。他们的想法是在这些希望的象征和新的国家身份之间建立一种强烈的联系,以弥合独立初期必然出现的时代主义高潮。通过考察南苏丹的两个希望范例,以及对国旗和国歌象征的审视,我描述了2011年南苏丹对未来的希望、象征和国家建设的尝试。最后,我回到弗朗茨·法农(Frantz Fanon)对欧洲模式的警告,并分析了那些追随欧洲模式的人是如何陷入民族主义的旧陷阱的,这是一种必然包含和排除的身份建构。就南苏丹而言,这使这个国家重新陷入了种族派系斗争的噩梦,长期存在的剥削形式带来了新的受益者,以及新的暴力形式和排斥行为。
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引用次数: 0
Beyond the African Unification Debate: Why is Pan-African Unity Still a Distant Dream? 超越非洲统一的争论:为什么泛非统一仍然是一个遥远的梦想?
Pub Date : 2019-06-10 DOI: 10.31132/2412-5717-2019-47-2-15-21
Sengulo Albert Msellemu, Hamisi Mathias Machangu
The idea of the Unification of Africa is not one that should be easily discarded. It is an idea, however, that has experienced major difficulties for those seeking to implement it. Originating in the African Diaspora, it was taken up by figures such as Kwame Nkrumah and Julius Nyerere. In its first decades, the project of African unity was institutionalised in the Organization of African Unity. The OAU passed through many vicissitudes and was always a conceptual and political battleground divided between those who wanted swift and speedy unification of African states, and those who favoured more cautious approaches. In a period where the OAU has given way to the African Union, the authors make an impassioned plea for the continuation of the unification projection into the future, even if in a more sober manner more attuned to the complexities of a diverse continent.
非洲统一的想法不应该被轻易抛弃。然而,对于那些寻求实施这一想法的人来说,这一想法遇到了重大困难。它起源于散居海外的非洲人,被夸梅·恩克鲁玛和朱利叶斯·尼雷尔等人物所接受。在最初的几十年里,非洲统一项目在非洲统一组织中制度化。非统组织经历了许多沧桑,一直是一个概念上和政治上的战场,在那些希望非洲国家迅速统一的人和那些倾向于采取更谨慎方法的人之间存在分歧。在非统组织让位给非洲联盟的时期,作者们慷慨激昂地呼吁在未来继续进行统一计划,即使是以一种更冷静的方式,更适应于一个多样化大陆的复杂性。
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引用次数: 0
The Future of Industry in Zambia: Will Engagement with India mean a New Phase of Development? 赞比亚工业的未来:与印度的接触是否意味着一个新的发展阶段?
Pub Date : 2019-06-10 DOI: 10.31132/2412-5717-2019-47-2-22-35
K. Krishna
Voices in both African and international communities argue that African industrialization has to catch up with the global economy. The former United Nations Secretary General, Ban Ki-Moon, once commented that the industrialization needs to speed up in Africa so that it can act as a stimulus for economic transformation in the continent. Additionally, it is a proven fact that countries cannot sustain themselves by being only consumers, and that they can only prosper if they also engage in production. Both India and Zambia experienced colonial economic plunder, for years and both countries felt that industrialization was required in their countries which contributes extensively for the eliminating of poverty; which raises productivity, create employment, enhance the income generated assets of the poor and helps to diversify exports. After Zambia achieved independence in 1964, the governments of India and Zambia aimed to strengthen their trade relations. The target of the Indian government towards the enhancement of the Zambian economy is not only concentrated on the trade alone but also in the promotion of both human resources and industries to elevate poverty as well. The article investigates the existing trade relations between India and Zambia and examines the benefit acquired by the Zambian people. It also explores the possibility enhancing trade and establishing more industries by Indian companies, the Indian Community and by the Indian government in Zambia.
非洲和国际社会都有声音认为,非洲的工业化必须跟上全球经济的步伐。前联合国秘书长潘基文曾评论说,非洲的工业化需要加快,这样它才能成为非洲大陆经济转型的刺激因素。此外,事实证明,一个国家不能仅仅靠做消费者来维持自己,只有当它们也从事生产时,它们才能繁荣。印度和赞比亚都经历了多年的殖民经济掠夺,两国都认为在其国家需要工业化,这对消除贫穷作出了广泛的贡献;这提高了生产率,创造了就业,增加了穷人的收入产生的资产,并有助于使出口多样化。1964年赞比亚获得独立后,印度和赞比亚政府旨在加强两国的贸易关系。印度政府促进赞比亚经济发展的目标不仅集中在贸易方面,还包括促进人力资源和工业发展,以消除贫困。本文调查了印度和赞比亚之间现有的贸易关系,并考察了赞比亚人民从中获得的利益。它还探讨了印度公司、印度社区和印度政府在赞比亚加强贸易和建立更多产业的可能性。
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引用次数: 0
Contextual Cinemas: Screening Everydayness of Africa in Nollywood 背景电影:在奈莱坞放映非洲的日常
Pub Date : 2019-06-10 DOI: 10.31132/2412-5717-2019-47-2-115-126
I. Uwah
African video-films, like performances generally capture the complexity of people’s everydayness. Apart from challenging formerly held stereotypes about the continent, they reveal the identity of Africa by underpinning key circumstantial experiences of her people. The thrust of this paper is to explain this everyday experiences in the context of a new wave of video-filmmaking culture and representations across the continent, starting with Nigeria and Ghana. By means of textual analysis as a methodological approach, it critically examines two video-films: Uziga (2008, Andy Nwakalor) from Nigeria and Enemy Within (2013, Pascal Amanfo) from Ghana to conceptualise the nature of this situation across the continent. At the end, it recommends that the present model of new cinemas across Africa be considered an alternative audio-visual prism (as against mainstream western stereotypes) for home grown truths that Africans can easily identify with.
非洲的视频电影,像表演一样,通常捕捉人们日常生活的复杂性。除了挑战以往对非洲大陆的刻板印象外,它们还通过支撑非洲人民的关键环境经历,揭示了非洲的身份。本文的主旨是从尼日利亚和加纳开始,在非洲大陆新一波视频电影制作文化和表现的背景下解释这种日常经历。通过文本分析作为一种方法论方法,它批判性地考察了两部视频电影:来自尼日利亚的《乌兹加》(2008年,安迪·恩瓦卡洛)和来自加纳的《内部的敌人》(2013年,帕斯卡尔·阿曼福),以概念化整个非洲大陆局势的本质。最后,它建议将目前非洲各地新建电影院的模式视为另一种视听棱镜(与西方主流的刻板印象相反),以反映非洲人很容易认同的本土真理。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of the Institute for African Studies
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