Pub Date : 2021-03-30DOI: 10.31132/2412-5717-2021-54-1-121-134
Anna A. Kachanova
The paper discusses possible ways to overcome one of the most relevant global problems – poverty in the developing countries. The study is based on a component analysis of the Human Development Index as a quantitative indicator of living standards for the three poorest countries in Sub–Saharan Africa – Burkina Faso, Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire – with close economic, geographical and diplomatic ties. The standard of living in each of the three countries and its dependence on four groups of the most important factors (export and import levels, net current transfers from abroad, grants from the International Development Association etc.) are analyzed. The human development index is used in the study as an indicator that most fully reflects the actual situation in the state in terms of living conditions of the population and opportunities for development available to them. The analysis carried out in the article made it possible to reveal the strength and direction of the relationship between the standard of living in each of the countries (HDI) and the factors identified earlier. Particular interest in the article is given to the description and interpretation of the results, which at first glance seem paradoxical and impossible, but upon a more detailed examination acquire a certain meaning and high significance. Recommendations are given to improve the situation in each of the listed countries, taking into account their economic and social characteristics, problems and prospects. Particular attention is paid to identifying individual strategies that will allow each of the countries to qualitatively increase the standard of living of the population and will help accelerate the development of the national economy.
{"title":"Living Standards in Sub–Saharan Africa: Current Situation and Stimulation of Growth","authors":"Anna A. Kachanova","doi":"10.31132/2412-5717-2021-54-1-121-134","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31132/2412-5717-2021-54-1-121-134","url":null,"abstract":"The paper discusses possible ways to overcome one of the most relevant global problems – poverty in the developing countries. The study is based on a component analysis of the Human Development Index as a quantitative indicator of living standards for the three poorest countries in Sub–Saharan Africa – Burkina Faso, Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire – with close economic, geographical and diplomatic ties. The standard of living in each of the three countries and its dependence on four groups of the most important factors (export and import levels, net current transfers from abroad, grants from the International Development Association etc.) are analyzed. The human development index is used in the study as an indicator that most fully reflects the actual situation in the state in terms of living conditions of the population and opportunities for development available to them.\u0000\u0000The analysis carried out in the article made it possible to reveal the strength and direction of the relationship between the standard of living in each of the countries (HDI) and the factors identified earlier. Particular interest in the article is given to the description and interpretation of the results, which at first glance seem paradoxical and impossible, but upon a more detailed examination acquire a certain meaning and high significance. Recommendations are given to improve the situation in each of the listed countries, taking into account their economic and social characteristics, problems and prospects. Particular attention is paid to identifying individual strategies that will allow each of the countries to qualitatively increase the standard of living of the population and will help accelerate the development of the national economy.","PeriodicalId":286957,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Institute for African Studies","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127666521","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-20DOI: 10.31132/2412-5717-2020-53-4-77-95
F. Ibrahim
While African population dynamics are typically referenced even in global demographic discourses, there is indeed a dearth of interpretive understanding of cultural construction of fertility among African ethnic groups. This article is a report of an ethnologic exploration of indigenous construction of fertility among rural Yorùbá farmers. Farmers were targeted because of their surviving ‘traditionality’ amongst other factors. Findings validate the commonplace assumption underscoring pro-fertile African value for children. More interestingly, findings yielded low-fertility compliant and even neutrality-laden fertility-related Yorùbá cultural construction. Among other things, findings demonstrate that the character of fertility-related Yorùbá construction is adaptive, empathetic and integrative, thereby affirming that the traditional veneration of the fertile is huge but non-sacrosanct.
{"title":"Expounding the Diversity of African Construction of Fertility: the Yorùbá Example","authors":"F. Ibrahim","doi":"10.31132/2412-5717-2020-53-4-77-95","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31132/2412-5717-2020-53-4-77-95","url":null,"abstract":"While African population dynamics are typically referenced even in global demographic discourses, there is indeed a dearth of interpretive understanding of cultural construction of fertility among African ethnic groups. This article is a report of an ethnologic exploration of indigenous construction of fertility among rural Yorùbá farmers. Farmers were targeted because of their surviving ‘traditionality’ amongst other factors. Findings validate the commonplace assumption underscoring pro-fertile African value for children. More interestingly, findings yielded low-fertility compliant and even neutrality-laden fertility-related Yorùbá cultural construction. Among other things, findings demonstrate that the character of fertility-related Yorùbá construction is adaptive, empathetic and integrative, thereby affirming that the traditional veneration of the fertile is huge but non-sacrosanct.","PeriodicalId":286957,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Institute for African Studies","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130263827","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-09-15DOI: 10.31132/2412-5717-2020-52-3-74-86
A. Arkhangelskaya
The history of the formation of South Africa as a single state is closely intertwined with events of international scale, which have accordingly influenced the definition and development of the main characteristics of the foreign policy of the emerging state. The Anglo-Boer wars and a number of other political and economic events led to the creation of the Union of South Africa under the protectorate of the British Empire in 1910. The political and economic evolution of the Union of South Africa has some specific features arising from specific historical conditions. The colonization of South Africa took place primarily due to the relocation of Dutch and English people who were mainly engaged in business activities (trade, mining, agriculture, etc.). Connected by many economic and financial threads with the elite of the countries from which the settlers left, the local elite began to develop production in the region at an accelerated pace. South Africa’s favorable climate and natural resources have made it a hub for foreign and local capital throughout the African continent. The geostrategic position is of particular importance for foreign policy in South Africa, which in many ways predetermined a great interest and was one of the fundamental factors of international involvement in the development of the region. The role of Jan Smuts, who served as Prime Minister of the Union of South Africa from 1919 to 1924 and from 1939 to 1948, was particularly prominent in the implementation of the foreign and domestic policy of the Union of South Africa in the focus period of this study. The main purpose of this article is to study the process of forming the mechanisms of the foreign policy of the Union of South Africa and the development of its diplomatic network in the period from 1910 to 1948.
{"title":"The Foreign Policy Mechanism of the Union Of South Africa and the Development of its Diplomatic Relations (1910–1948)","authors":"A. Arkhangelskaya","doi":"10.31132/2412-5717-2020-52-3-74-86","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31132/2412-5717-2020-52-3-74-86","url":null,"abstract":"The history of the formation of South Africa as a single state is closely intertwined with events of international scale, which have accordingly influenced the definition and development of the main characteristics of the foreign policy of the emerging state. The Anglo-Boer wars and a number of other political and economic events led to the creation of the Union of South Africa under the protectorate of the British Empire in 1910. The political and economic evolution of the Union of South Africa has some specific features arising from specific historical conditions.\u0000\u0000The colonization of South Africa took place primarily due to the relocation of Dutch and English people who were mainly engaged in business activities (trade, mining, agriculture, etc.). Connected by many economic and financial threads with the elite of the countries from which the settlers left, the local elite began to develop production in the region at an accelerated pace. South Africa’s favorable climate and natural resources have made it a hub for foreign and local capital throughout the African continent. The geostrategic position is of particular importance for foreign policy in South Africa, which in many ways predetermined a great interest and was one of the fundamental factors of international involvement in the development of the region.\u0000\u0000The role of Jan Smuts, who served as Prime Minister of the Union of South Africa from 1919 to 1924 and from 1939 to 1948, was particularly prominent in the implementation of the foreign and domestic policy of the Union of South Africa in the focus period of this study.\u0000The main purpose of this article is to study the process of forming the mechanisms of the foreign policy of the Union of South Africa and the development of its diplomatic network in the period from 1910 to 1948.","PeriodicalId":286957,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Institute for African Studies","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128862221","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-09-15DOI: 10.31132/2412-5717-2020-52-3-5-14
O. Konstantinova
The relations between Russia and Africa today go to a new level. This was successfully demonstrated by the first Russia-Africa Summit. The «soft power» that is capable of creating an atmosphere of trust and mutual understanding and supporting the further development of political, economic, and cultural relations between the Russian and African peoples is of great importance for the further advancement of Russia’s interests, which is considered in this article. Currently, the «soft power» of Russia in Africa is represented by the activities of the Russian centers of science and culture, the «Russkiy Mir» Foundation, schools at the Russian Embassies in African countries, the education of Africans in Russian universities and more. However, the author concludes that Russia does not fully use «soft power» on the continent. It is necessary to increase the number of Africans studying the Russian language, to more actively promote Russian education, to involve compatriots and graduates of Soviet / Russian universities to joint projects, which will undoubtedly contribute to the further development of mutually beneficial Russian-African ties.
{"title":"Prospects for the Development of Russian-African Cooperation in the Cultural and Humanitarian Sphere","authors":"O. Konstantinova","doi":"10.31132/2412-5717-2020-52-3-5-14","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31132/2412-5717-2020-52-3-5-14","url":null,"abstract":"The relations between Russia and Africa today go to a new level. This was successfully demonstrated by the first Russia-Africa Summit. The «soft power» that is capable of creating an atmosphere of trust and mutual understanding and supporting the further development of political, economic, and cultural relations between the Russian and African peoples is of great importance for the further advancement of Russia’s interests, which is considered in this article.\u0000\u0000Currently, the «soft power» of Russia in Africa is represented by the activities of the Russian centers of science and culture, the «Russkiy Mir» Foundation, schools at the Russian Embassies in African countries, the education of Africans in Russian universities and more. However, the author concludes that Russia does not fully use «soft power» on the continent.\u0000\u0000It is necessary to increase the number of Africans studying the Russian language, to more actively promote Russian education, to involve compatriots and graduates of Soviet / Russian universities to joint projects, which will undoubtedly contribute to the further development of mutually beneficial Russian-African ties.","PeriodicalId":286957,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Institute for African Studies","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114706512","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-09-15DOI: 10.31132/2412-5717-2020-52-3-60-73
E. Zanoskina
The research is motivated by the extensive literature on the elevated levels of xenophobia in South Africa. The main contribution of the research to the academic field of ethnic conflict studies is that the author comprehensively approaches the determination of the level of xenophobia in South African society, whereas the majority of the literature on the issue has focused on the analysis of individual manifestations of xenophobic violence. This research was guided through three research questions: (1) what are the causes of xenophobia in South Africa? (2) What is the legal framework of South African policy addressing anti-migrant attacks? (3) What measures does the government of South Africa take to combat xenophobia? The principal purpose of the research is to help modernize South Africa’s policies, legislation and practices against xenophobia and related intolerance on the basis of the analysis proposed. Research methods included the study and analysis of literature and social surveys, the collection and analysis of factual materials, the study of documents, methods of quantitative and qualitative data processing. The article describes in detail the political, cultural, economic and socio-historical reasons of xenophobia and analyzes current policies of South Africa against anti-migrant attacks. As a result, the research illustrates what factors contribute to the spread of xenophobic violence and why the government’s actions to combat this social issue have so far been ineffective. The findings of the paper support the prediction that if the government pays attention to the roots of the problem, xenophobia in South African can be significantly reduced.
{"title":"New South African Policy in Combating Xenophobia","authors":"E. Zanoskina","doi":"10.31132/2412-5717-2020-52-3-60-73","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31132/2412-5717-2020-52-3-60-73","url":null,"abstract":"The research is motivated by the extensive literature on the elevated levels of xenophobia in South Africa. The main contribution of the research to the academic field of ethnic conflict studies is that the author comprehensively approaches the determination of the level of xenophobia in South African society, whereas the majority of the literature on the issue has focused on the analysis of individual manifestations of xenophobic violence. This research was guided through three research questions: (1) what are the causes of xenophobia in South Africa? (2) What is the legal framework of South African policy addressing anti-migrant attacks? (3) What measures does the government of South Africa take to combat xenophobia? The principal purpose of the research is to help modernize South Africa’s policies, legislation and practices against xenophobia and related intolerance on the basis of the analysis proposed. Research methods included the study and analysis of literature and social surveys, the collection and analysis of factual materials, the study of documents, methods of quantitative and qualitative data processing.\u0000\u0000The article describes in detail the political, cultural, economic and socio-historical reasons of xenophobia and analyzes current policies of South Africa against anti-migrant attacks. As a result, the research illustrates what factors contribute to the spread of xenophobic violence and why the government’s actions to combat this social issue have so far been ineffective. The findings of the paper support the prediction that if the government pays attention to the roots of the problem, xenophobia in South African can be significantly reduced.","PeriodicalId":286957,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Institute for African Studies","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133161228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-09-15DOI: 10.31132/2412-5717-2020-52-3-15-27
V. Gubanov
The commodity export is the main source of revenue to the state budget for the majority of countries of the African continent, which have rich hydrocarbons reserves. Also, this fact allows the state to attract foreign investment for the overall economy development and solving social problems. However, such fossil reserves, as history shows, can also lead to economic stagnation and corruption. This scenario of a country’s economic development is called “the resource curse”. Some African countries, such as Libya, Angola, Nigeria and others, have different degrees of the identified problems. The combination of resource abundance and mismanagement can be extremely dangerous for a country that is on the path to the oil and gas sector reforms. Since the 2000s, Nigeria has been reorganizing the oil and gas sector and making more efficient use of natural gas. This country has made significant progress in reducing gas flaring and has also taken a leading position in the global LNG market. Nevertheless, it has many difficulties in promoting relevant legislative initiatives and specific ideas. Shortages on the domestic gas market, administrated pricing mechanism and insufficient infrastructure are not the full range of problems for Nigeria. Against the backdrop of optimistic natural gas production forecasts, solving these issues is important for the development of Nigeria and Africa as a whole. Therefore, the particular interest is to study the gas industry in specific countries in order to identify factors that directly affect its development. This article examines some aspects of the gas industry in Nigeria in relation to the problems and growth prospects of this industry in the country.
{"title":"Nigeria Bets on Natural Gas","authors":"V. Gubanov","doi":"10.31132/2412-5717-2020-52-3-15-27","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31132/2412-5717-2020-52-3-15-27","url":null,"abstract":"The commodity export is the main source of revenue to the state budget for the majority of countries of the African continent, which have rich hydrocarbons reserves. Also, this fact allows the state to attract foreign investment for the overall economy development and solving social problems. However, such fossil reserves, as history shows, can also lead to economic stagnation and corruption. This scenario of a country’s economic development is called “the resource curse”. Some African countries, such as Libya, Angola, Nigeria and others, have different degrees of the identified problems. The combination of resource abundance and mismanagement can be extremely dangerous for a country that is on the path to the oil and gas sector reforms. Since the 2000s, Nigeria has been reorganizing the oil and gas sector and making more efficient use of natural gas. This country has made significant progress in reducing gas flaring and has also taken a leading position in the global LNG market. Nevertheless, it has many difficulties in promoting relevant legislative initiatives and specific ideas. Shortages on the domestic gas market, administrated pricing mechanism and insufficient infrastructure are not the full range of problems for Nigeria. Against the backdrop of optimistic natural gas production forecasts, solving these issues is important for the development of Nigeria and Africa as a whole. Therefore, the particular interest is to study the gas industry in specific countries in order to identify factors that directly affect its development. This article examines some aspects of the gas industry in Nigeria in relation to the problems and growth prospects of this industry in the country.","PeriodicalId":286957,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Institute for African Studies","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129057469","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-09-15DOI: 10.31132/2412-5717-2020-52-3-28-38
Edward H. Ntege
This article is about understanding the vulnerability of money or value transfer services (MVTS) to terrorist infiltration in East Africa. The author also analyzes the penetration of money transfer services (MVTS) by criminals and their concealment of income as a result of criminal acts. It also examines some of the causal factors of terrorism in the East African region (EA) and describes some effective and comprehensive law enforcement measures aimed at improving the effectiveness and efficiency of the fight against terrorism in the region. The article describes how civil conflicts in the EA region have led to a lack of banking services, which in turn has made EA vulnerable to terrorist financing, further amplified by conflicts in the region that have led to internal and external displacement of migrant communities, societies, and families that rely heavily on transferring funds to dependents. The author examines the consequences of the endless civil war in Somalia by Al-Shabab and how it has led to spread of terrorism and related terrorist financing to neighboring countries. Most of those countries do not have strong anti-money laundering / terrorist financing (AML/CFT) systems. Financial services such as mobile money, Forex bureaus, and other are exposed to high levels of terrorist financing risk in the EA economy. The author goes on to explain how a weak AML / CFT system has led to difficulties or loss of access to International currency markets, and the pressure on relevant banking relationships has in turn undermined and affected the long-term growth prospects and financial accessibility of countries. This led to an increase in the cost of financial services, which negatively affected the banking ratings. Further the author considers the threat to internal and financial stability from criminal activity – in particular, the significant level of tax crimes (value-added fraud and tax evasion) that affect the flow of government revenue, thereby impeding institutional development. This article also highlights how EA member States, through the FATF regional anti-money laundering authority in Eastern and Southern Africa (ESAAMLG), should improve guidelines, strategies and capabilities, such as risk assessment, which is the basis of the MVTS provider’s risk-based approach. They should help money transfer providers understand how and to what extent their services are vulnerable to ML / TF.
{"title":"Keeping Financial System Clean: Suppressing Terrorist Infiltration of Money or Value Transfer Services in East Africa","authors":"Edward H. Ntege","doi":"10.31132/2412-5717-2020-52-3-28-38","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31132/2412-5717-2020-52-3-28-38","url":null,"abstract":"This article is about understanding the vulnerability of money or value transfer services (MVTS) to terrorist infiltration in East Africa. The author also analyzes the penetration of money transfer services (MVTS) by criminals and their concealment of income as a result of criminal acts. It also examines some of the causal factors of terrorism in the East African region (EA) and describes some effective and comprehensive law enforcement measures aimed at improving the effectiveness and efficiency of the fight against terrorism in the region. The article describes how civil conflicts in the EA region have led to a lack of banking services, which in turn has made EA vulnerable to terrorist financing, further amplified by conflicts in the region that have led to internal and external displacement of migrant communities, societies, and families that rely heavily on transferring funds to dependents. The author examines the consequences of the endless civil war in Somalia by Al-Shabab and how it has led to spread of terrorism and related terrorist financing to neighboring countries. Most of those countries do not have strong anti-money laundering / terrorist financing (AML/CFT) systems. Financial services such as mobile money, Forex bureaus, and other are exposed to high levels of terrorist financing risk in the EA economy. The author goes on to explain how a weak AML / CFT system has led to difficulties or loss of access to International currency markets, and the pressure on relevant banking relationships has in turn undermined and affected the long-term growth prospects and financial accessibility of countries. This led to an increase in the cost of financial services, which negatively affected the banking ratings. Further the author considers the threat to internal and financial stability from criminal activity – in particular, the significant level of tax crimes (value-added fraud and tax evasion) that affect the flow of government revenue, thereby impeding institutional development. This article also highlights how EA member States, through the FATF regional anti-money laundering authority in Eastern and Southern Africa (ESAAMLG), should improve guidelines, strategies and capabilities, such as risk assessment, which is the basis of the MVTS provider’s risk-based approach. They should help money transfer providers understand how and to what extent their services are vulnerable to ML / TF.","PeriodicalId":286957,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Institute for African Studies","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116964054","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-09-15DOI: 10.31132/2412-5717-2020-52-3-112-132
S. Mezentsev, Pavel Tsarev
The article analyses the serious regional crisis connected with the end of the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile. This project, due to be launched in July 2020, sparks tensions between Ethiopia and Egypt. Both sides are doing their utmost to get international support for their respective positions. Cairo urges not to fill the Dam before settling all the disputed issues. Addis Ababa wants to do it as quickly as possible to make the Dam operational. However, the window of diplomatic opportunities for a consensus is just about to close. Egypt threatens to use military force, and Ethiopia is ready to mobilize one million people to protect the Dam. Who is in the right? Which country is stronger? Could Egypt and Ethiopia really go to war over water? The authors try to answer these questions, analyzing the legislative base of the Nile case, the military potential of both countries and the attitude of the main world actors towards this problem. Comparing available open source data, authors conclude that a war between the two states is almost impossible. What is happening now around the Dam looks more like a big bargain, and its subject is the Egypt’s future chances to remain one of the main regional and continental political and economic players. There are only two ways to delay filling the dam: monetary compensation from Egypt or future destabilization of internal situation in Ethiopia.
{"title":"The Nile Bargain","authors":"S. Mezentsev, Pavel Tsarev","doi":"10.31132/2412-5717-2020-52-3-112-132","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31132/2412-5717-2020-52-3-112-132","url":null,"abstract":"The article analyses the serious regional crisis connected with the end of the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile. This project, due to be launched in July 2020, sparks tensions between Ethiopia and Egypt. Both sides are doing their utmost to get international support for their respective positions. Cairo urges not to fill the Dam before settling all the disputed issues. Addis Ababa wants to do it as quickly as possible to make the Dam operational. However, the window of diplomatic opportunities for a consensus is just about to close. Egypt threatens to use military force, and Ethiopia is ready to mobilize one million people to protect the Dam. Who is in the right? Which country is stronger? Could Egypt and Ethiopia really go to war over water? The authors try to answer these questions, analyzing the legislative base of the Nile case, the military potential of both countries and the attitude of the main world actors towards this problem.\u0000\u0000Comparing available open source data, authors conclude that a war between the two states is almost impossible. What is happening now around the Dam looks more like a big bargain, and its subject is the Egypt’s future chances to remain one of the main regional and continental political and economic players. There are only two ways to delay filling the dam: monetary compensation from Egypt or future destabilization of internal situation in Ethiopia.","PeriodicalId":286957,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Institute for African Studies","volume":"70 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123341471","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-09-15DOI: 10.31132/2412-5717-2020-52-3-87-111
A. Urnov
The political, economic and strategic significance of these six African countries have made them the object of intent attention and multivector activities by the United States of America. The article is focused on the events of 2019-2020. Despite an unprecedented internal political split and the coronavirus pandemic, the US African policy was sufficiently energetic, based on traditional “pillars” and conducted as part of the course for global hegemony. The US tries to derive maximum benefits from the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where due to their interference there took place a change of presidents. The task is set to reinforce positions in Sudan and South Sudan. The provisional state power bodies are pressurized to implement the agreements on peaceful “transit to democracy”. The attempts are made to draw the new leaders of Ethiopia and Angola in the sphere of American influence. In Libya, while claiming to be “a neutral mediator”, the US intends to control the process of political settlement and to cajole the parties of the conflict into a compromise which will make the United States the dominant foreign partner of the country’s post conflict leadership.
{"title":"The United States Policy in Relation to Ethiopia, Democratic Republic Of The Congo, Sudan, South Sudan, Angola, and Libya","authors":"A. Urnov","doi":"10.31132/2412-5717-2020-52-3-87-111","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31132/2412-5717-2020-52-3-87-111","url":null,"abstract":"The political, economic and strategic significance of these six African countries have made them the object of intent attention and multivector activities by the United States of America. The article is focused on the events of 2019-2020. Despite an unprecedented internal political split and the coronavirus pandemic, the US African policy was sufficiently energetic, based on traditional “pillars” and conducted as part of the course for global hegemony.\u0000\u0000The US tries to derive maximum benefits from the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where due to their interference there took place a change of presidents. The task is set to reinforce positions in Sudan and South Sudan. The provisional state power bodies are pressurized to implement the agreements on peaceful “transit to democracy”. The attempts are made to draw the new leaders of Ethiopia and Angola in the sphere of American influence. In Libya, while claiming to be “a neutral mediator”, the US intends to control the process of political settlement and to cajole the parties of the conflict into a compromise which will make the United States the dominant foreign partner of the country’s post conflict leadership.","PeriodicalId":286957,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Institute for African Studies","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131169074","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-09-15DOI: 10.31132/2412-5717-2020-52-3-39-59
T. Kochanova
The research focuses on Sudan and South Sudan, where great changes in socio-political life are taking place. Following different historical researches and monitoring various modern information sources, the author provides insight into problems faced by the peoples that inhabit this region (which is remote from the rest of the world’s civilization) from colonial times to the present day. The author analyzes the nature and dynamics of the transformation of transitional forms of governance and power relations in these countries, identifies the reasons that affect the internal politics of the states. The author characterizes the current internal political situation in the region as post-traumatic, and the condition of the government – as serious but stable, but expresses the hope that, thanks to the experience gained in the change of power in these countries, a resuscitation of peaceful socio-economic processes can occur, as well as a slow, but all the same an evolution of the authorities.
{"title":"Sudan and South Sudan: Through the Deconstruction and Transformation of Power to its Evolution","authors":"T. Kochanova","doi":"10.31132/2412-5717-2020-52-3-39-59","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31132/2412-5717-2020-52-3-39-59","url":null,"abstract":"The research focuses on Sudan and South Sudan, where great changes in socio-political life are taking place. Following different historical researches and monitoring various modern information sources, the author provides insight into problems faced by the peoples that inhabit this region (which is remote from the rest of the world’s civilization) from colonial times to the present day. The author analyzes the nature and dynamics of the transformation of transitional forms of governance and power relations in these countries, identifies the reasons that affect the internal politics of the states. The author characterizes the current internal political situation in the region as post-traumatic, and the condition of the government – as serious but stable, but expresses the hope that, thanks to the experience gained in the change of power in these countries, a resuscitation of peaceful socio-economic processes can occur, as well as a slow, but all the same an evolution of the authorities.","PeriodicalId":286957,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Institute for African Studies","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115391869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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