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AUKUS AS AN EFFECTIVE RESPONSE TO THE PROSPECTIVE LIMITATION OF AMERICAN DOMINATION IN THE INDO-PACIFIC 奥库斯是对美国在印太地区的统治可能受到限制的有效回应
Pub Date : 2023-09-30 DOI: 10.12775/tis.2023.011
Piotr Mickiewicz
The establishment of the AUKUS system by the USA, Great Britain and Australia is a tangible proof of the change in the American maritime strategy and the rivalry with China for influence in the Indo-Pacific. Including Australia in the efforts to curb Chinese regional expansion is an undoubted success of Washington, which has skilfully used both the weaknesses of the QUAD agreement and the Australia-India-Indonesia trilateral cooperation to persuade Canberra to redefine its policy towards China and the region itself. As a result, Australia is becoming not only the second most important ally of the USA after Great Britain, but also the most important maritime player in the Indian Ocean. This status also poses a threat to the US, as it will weaken the community of interests with India and – to a lesser extent – with Saudi Arabia. Moreover, American politicians must accept the fact that they will be co-makers of policies in the Indo-Pacific region and that sometimes – in their own interest – they will be forced to remain passive in the face of actions taken by Canberra. The aim of the article is to analyze the political significance of the AUKUS agreement for American politics and to assess the possibility of its potential transformation into a political alliance or a regional maritime security complex. This assessment will be made based on the analysis of strategic documents of the signatories of the agreement and political and economic conditions in the Indo-Pacific region. The issue of approval by the American political establishment for recognizing Australia as an independent political player in this region was considered a major threat to the implementation of this political concept.
美国、英国和澳大利亚建立AUKUS体系是美国海洋战略变化以及与中国在印太地区争夺影响力的切实证据。将澳大利亚纳入遏制中国地区扩张的努力无疑是华盛顿的成功,它巧妙地利用了四国战略伙伴关系协议和澳大利亚-印度-印度尼西亚三边合作的弱点,说服堪培拉重新定义其对中国和该地区本身的政策。因此,澳大利亚不仅成为美国仅次于英国的第二大盟友,也是印度洋上最重要的海上参与者。这一地位也对美国构成了威胁,因为它将削弱美国与印度的利益共同体,并在较小程度上削弱美国与沙特阿拉伯的利益共同体。此外,美国政界人士必须接受这样一个事实:他们将是印太地区政策的共同制定者,有时——为了自己的利益——他们将被迫在堪培拉采取的行动面前保持被动。本文的目的是分析AUKUS协议对美国政治的政治意义,并评估其潜在转变为政治联盟或区域海上安全综合体的可能性。这一评估将以分析签署国的战略文件和印太地区的政治、经济状况为基础进行。美国政治建制派是否同意承认澳大利亚在该地区是一个独立的政治参与者,被认为是对这一政治概念实施的主要威胁。
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引用次数: 0
REVIEW OF COUNTER-TERRORISM SYSTEMS DURING SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES IN THE 21ST CENTURY 21世纪夏季奥运会期间反恐系统审查
Pub Date : 2023-09-30 DOI: 10.12775/tis.2023.010
Daniel Michalski, Adam Marek Radomyski, Paweł Bernat
The research results presented in the article pertain to the organization of security systems by the host countries during the Summer Olympic Games in Athens (2004), Beijing (2008), London (2012), and Rio de Janeiro (2016). The central part of the considerations focuses on the complex issue of searching for methods and tools to effectively protect participants of such large mass sports events, not only against terrorists. Taking into account the identified problem situation, it was agreed that the aim of the article will be to characterize the security methods and tools employed by the organizers of the Summer Olympic Games. The research was conducted with the use of selected theoretical scientific methods, including analysis, synthesis, comparison, analogy, generalization, and inference. These methods were applied in a structured way to a research process that focused on case studies of selected Summer Olympic Games that were considered representative samples. The results of the carried out research clearly indicate a high complexity of the security systems created for the needs of the Olympic Games. In every analyzed case, the need occurred to integrate state institutions and international organizations, including various agencies dealing with security issues, including terrorism. Additionally, based on the obtained results, it was also determined that properly forecasting threats is crucial in ensuring the safety of participants in the Olympic Games. It should be further emphasized that in each analyzed case study, the organizers of these large sports events fulfilled their role as hosts very well. They should, therefore, be recognized as a good example for other countries that will apply for organizing this type of mass sports events in the future. They must also be aware that each sporting event of this type requires a significant organizational and financial effort and that the threats are not limited to terrorism but can be posed by various external and internal factors. This article is one of the first attempts to assess the justification of implementing various methods and tools to the security systems of mass international sporting events through the prism of their effectiveness. In addition, the proposed solutions, including the threat forecasting methodology, may be useful to both practitioners and theoreticians in creating more effective solutions in the field of national and international security.
文章中提出的研究结果涉及雅典(2004年)、北京(2008年)、伦敦(2012年)和里约热内卢(2016年)夏季奥运会期间东道国安全系统的组织。考虑的核心部分集中在寻找有效保护此类大型群众体育赛事参与者的方法和工具的复杂问题上,而不仅仅是针对恐怖分子。考虑到已查明的问题情况,大家同意,这篇文章的目的将是描述夏季奥林匹克运动会组织者所采用的安全方法和工具。本研究采用精选的理论科学方法进行,包括分析、综合、比较、类比、概括和推理。这些方法以一种结构化的方式应用于一个研究过程,重点是选定的夏季奥运会的案例研究,被认为是代表性的样本。所进行的研究结果清楚地表明,为奥运会的需要而建立的安全系统高度复杂。在每一个分析过的案例中,都需要将国家机构和国际组织,包括处理安全问题,包括恐怖主义问题的各种机构整合起来。此外,根据所获得的结果,还确定正确预测威胁对于确保奥运会参与者的安全至关重要。应该进一步强调的是,在每一个分析的案例研究中,这些大型体育赛事的组织者都很好地履行了他们作为东道主的角色。因此,他们应该被认为是一个很好的例子,为其他国家将申请组织这种类型的群众体育赛事在未来。他们还必须意识到,这种类型的每一项体育赛事都需要大量的组织和财政努力,威胁不仅限于恐怖主义,而且可能由各种外部和内部因素造成。本文是第一次尝试通过其有效性的棱镜来评估对大规模国际体育赛事的安全系统实施各种方法和工具的合理性。此外,所提出的解决方案,包括威胁预测方法,可能对实践者和理论家在国家和国际安全领域创造更有效的解决方案有用。
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引用次数: 0
EUROPEAN UNION AT THE DAWN OF TECHNOLOGICAL COLD WAR 技术冷战初期的欧盟
Pub Date : 2023-09-30 DOI: 10.12775/tis.2023.015
Tomasz Gajewski
The purpose of the study was to construct a picture of the EU’s global position in a world defined by the US-Chinese technological Cold War. Morphological analysis has been used to enable a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between the technological and social domains. Structured interviews were also used to support the analytical process. The results of the exploration showed a picture of the EU’s multi-level technological weakness compared to competing powers. While the EU is not a weak entity, its future international position will depend on the creation of its own technological capabilities and on cooperation with the United States. Both lines of action are subject to multiple risks. Firstly, some aggressive technological developments (such as the plans to place microchips production in Europe) can generate more problems than diversification. Secondly, the EU must extend its work on high-tech (primarily AI) beyond the logic of market regulation and focus on their geopolitical and military dimension. It must also be ready for possible obstacles in cooperation with the United States. The alternative to this track, as the analysis shows, is the technological, and hence the political and economic peripheral status, where two technological superpowers – the United States and authoritarian China will compete. The most negative result for the EU is the status of “digital colony”. The paper aspires to be a part of the effort to fill the existing void in the scientific output of Polish social sciences, regarding exploration of the geopolitical dimension of technological progress, especially its impact on EU’s position in the new power distribution model, which will be the result of the rivalry between the US and China.
这项研究的目的是构建一幅欧盟在美中技术冷战所定义的世界中的全球地位的图景。形态学分析已被用于对技术和社会领域之间的关系进行全面分析。结构化访谈也用于支持分析过程。调查结果显示,与竞争大国相比,欧盟在技术上存在多层次的弱点。虽然欧盟不是一个弱小的实体,但其未来的国际地位将取决于其自身技术能力的创造以及与美国的合作。这两种行动方式都面临多重风险。首先,一些激进的技术发展(比如将微芯片生产转移到欧洲的计划)会产生比多样化更多的问题。其次,欧盟必须将其在高科技(主要是人工智能)方面的工作扩展到市场监管逻辑之外,并专注于其地缘政治和军事层面。它还必须为与美国合作可能遇到的障碍做好准备。正如分析显示的那样,这条轨道的另一个选择是技术,因此是政治和经济的边缘地位,两个技术超级大国——美国和专制的中国将竞争。对欧盟来说,最负面的结果是“数字殖民地”的地位。本文希望通过探索技术进步的地缘政治维度,特别是其对欧盟在新的权力分配模式中的地位的影响,填补波兰社会科学科学产出中存在的空白,这将是美国和中国之间竞争的结果。
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引用次数: 0
INDO–FRENCH DEFENCE PARTNERSHIP AND REGIONAL SECURITY BALANCE IN SOUTH ASIA 印法防务伙伴关系和南亚地区安全平衡
Pub Date : 2023-09-30 DOI: 10.12775/tis.2023.013
Mukesh Shankar Bharti
The article aims to describe the regional security challenges and major threats for India in South Asia. Since 1947, India has been suffering from external security threats such as a form of proxy warfare and terrorism from neighbouring countries. To this purpose, the article also examines recurring issues where India has major border issues with China in the Himalayan terrain to the Eastern region. India has been facing bigger security threats from China and Pakistan in the South Asia region. This article looks at defence cooperation between India and France through the prism of India’s serious security threats in the South Asian region. India’s soft power policy is reflected in a neo-realist approach and expanded by its long-standing defence cooperation with France. Therefore, India has been receiving support from the French government whenever the country needs defence equipment and other assistance. The article uses case studies and discourse analysis methods to answer the questions and draw the main findings and conclusions of the study. Finally, as a result of the study, India’s serious security threats in the South Asian region are pushing the country to purchase defence equipment from France. The relationship between India and France is strengthening bilateral cooperation at a broader level and shaping a strong strategic partnership by uniting in South Asia and the Indo-Pacific as well.
本文旨在描述印度在南亚面临的地区安全挑战和主要威胁。自1947年以来,印度一直遭受外部安全威胁,如某种形式的代理战争和来自邻国的恐怖主义。为此,本文还研究了印度与中国在喜马拉雅地区和东部地区的重大边界问题。印度在南亚地区面临着来自中国和巴基斯坦更大的安全威胁。本文通过印度在南亚地区的严重安全威胁的棱镜来审视印度和法国之间的防务合作。印度的软实力政策反映在一种新现实主义的做法上,并通过与法国的长期防务合作得到扩展。因此,每当印度需要国防装备和其他援助时,印度一直得到法国政府的支持。本文运用案例研究和语篇分析的方法来回答这些问题,并得出研究的主要发现和结论。最后,作为研究的结果,印度在南亚地区的严重安全威胁正促使该国从法国购买国防装备。印度和法国的关系正在加强更广泛的双边合作,并通过在南亚和印度太平洋地区团结一致,形成强大的战略伙伴关系。
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引用次数: 0
RUSSIA’S FALIN–KVITSINSKY ENERGY DOCTRINE: HISTORY AND EXPERIENCE APPLYING TO SELECTED CENTRAL EUROPEAN COUNTRIES 俄罗斯的法林-克维辛斯基能源主义:中欧国家的历史与经验
Pub Date : 2023-09-30 DOI: 10.12775/tis.2023.014
Maciej Mróz, Michał Paszkowski
This article discusses the evolution of the energy security of Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine since the collapse of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), in terms of natural gas supplies. Instead of framing energy dependencies on Russia in a descriptive way, this article shows the empirical validation of the Falin–Kvitsinsky doctrine, which includes the use of energy resources as tool in foreign policy. Therefore, the authors propose a three-element Falin–Kvitsinsky doctrine indicator to measure the power of this doctrine using the yearly data for 1991–2021. Authors argue that the impact of this doctrine should be assessed through the lens of energy supply security and then measured by appropriate indicators. This approach might be seen as opposite to the mainstream publications which are mostly descriptive in this field. In the article, the authors provided clear evidence of the Falin–Kvitsinsky doctrine existence until the end of 2021, which was applied during the Russian-Ukrainian war. Actions taken by Russia over the years were aimed at making Central European countries dependent on natural gas supply, which would then prompt these countries to limit their aid to Ukraine during the conflict that began in 2022. In conclusion, Russia is able to pursue its political goals in the manner suggested by the Falin–Kvitsinsky doctrine as long as each Central European country tries to ensure its own energy security. However, the Falin-Kvitsky doctrine did not fully meet its objectives, as Central European countries, as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian war, were able to quickly take steps to diversify the sources and directions of natural gas supplies by taking comprehensive measures and strengthening cooperation.
本文讨论了白俄罗斯、爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚、立陶宛、波兰和乌克兰自苏维埃社会主义共和国联盟(苏联)解体以来在天然气供应方面的能源安全演变。本文没有以描述性的方式描述对俄罗斯的能源依赖,而是展示了法林-克维钦斯基主义的实证验证,其中包括将能源资源作为外交政策的工具。因此,作者提出了一个三要素的Falin-Kvitsinsky学说指标,使用1991-2021年的年度数据来衡量这一学说的力量。作者认为,应该从能源供应安全的角度来评估这一理论的影响,然后用适当的指标来衡量。这种方法可能被视为与主流出版物相反,主流出版物在这一领域主要是描述性的。在文章中,作者提供了明确的证据,证明法林-克维钦斯基学说一直存在到2021年底,并在俄乌战争期间得到应用。俄罗斯多年来采取的行动旨在使中欧国家依赖天然气供应,从而促使这些国家在2022年开始的冲突期间限制对乌克兰的援助。总之,只要每个中欧国家都努力确保自己的能源安全,俄罗斯就能够以Falin-Kvitsinsky学说所建议的方式追求其政治目标。然而,Falin-Kvitsky学说并没有完全实现其目标,因为中欧国家由于俄罗斯-乌克兰战争,能够迅速采取措施,通过采取综合措施和加强合作,使天然气供应的来源和方向多样化。
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引用次数: 0
THE POLICY OF CONTAINING IRAN BY THE ADMINISTRATION OF DONALD TRUMP (2017-2021) 特朗普政府遏制伊朗政策(2017-2021)
Pub Date : 2023-09-30 DOI: 10.12775/tis.2023.012
Amanj Othman
Since President Donald Trump assumed his constitutional duties in January 2017 and ended his term in January 2021, he adopted strategic goals that were generally characterized by hardening towards Iran, which did not differ from the majority of previous administrations, even of president’s Barack Obama, who agreed with his predecessors on the goals, but differed in his ways to reach them. In the same context, the national security document, which was approved by the us administration, in December 2017, did not depart from the previous framework. Iran was present within its content, which reflected a hard-line image of Iran by focusing on what the latter poses as an increasing threat to American interests, as well as to its allies and the security and stability of the Middle East region in general. The document outlined the Iranian danger, describing it as “a dictatorial regime that seeks to undermine the region and destabilize its security, threaten the allies of the united states, and commit brutal acts against its people.” This strategy was, in terms of form, closer in many of its elements to what is generally accepted than the outcomes of successive administrations towards Iran. These were the same goals that the majority of US administrations had long been striving for, especially since the beginning of the new millennium and the exposure of the Iranian nuclear program, but the difference, as well as in the details and implementation mechanisms, are the paths and steps taken to achieve the goals.
自唐纳德·特朗普总统于2017年1月开始履行宪法职责并于2021年1月结束任期以来,他制定的战略目标总体上以对伊朗的强硬态度为特征,这与之前的大多数政府没有什么不同,甚至与总统巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)的目标一致,但在实现这些目标的方式上有所不同。在同样的背景下,美国政府于2017年12月批准的国家安全文件并没有偏离之前的框架。伊朗在其内容中有所体现,这反映了伊朗的强硬形象,重点关注后者对美国利益、盟友以及整个中东地区的安全与稳定构成的日益严重的威胁。该文件概述了伊朗的危险,称其为“一个独裁政权,试图破坏该地区的稳定,破坏其安全,威胁美国的盟友,并对其人民实施残酷行为”。就形式而言,这一战略的许多要素比历届政府对伊朗的结果更接近于普遍接受的内容。这些都是大多数美国政府长期以来一直在努力实现的目标,特别是自新千年开始和伊朗核计划暴露以来,但不同之处在于实现目标的途径和步骤,以及细节和实施机制。
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引用次数: 0
POLISH-AMERICAN ALLIANCE DURING THE PRESIDENCY OF DONALD TRUMP IN THE PERSPECTIVE OF OFFENSIVE BANDWAGONING 唐纳德·特朗普总统任期内的波美联盟:进攻性随大流的视角
Pub Date : 2022-06-30 DOI: 10.12775/tis.2022.004
Łukasz Jureńczyk
The aim of the paper is to analyze and evaluate the Polish-American alliance during the presidency of Donald Trump in the perspective of the concept of offensive bandwagoning. In Poland, the United States is invariably perceived as the main external guarantor of security. For this reason, Poland's security policy is clearly pro-American. The Polish authorities from the Law and Justice party and the US administration of President Donald Trump were brought together by many factors, including ideological closeness, disputes with Western European political elites, relativizing the principles of the rule of law and democracy, and a similar view of the geopolitics of Central and Eastern Europe. I argue that in recent years the Polish-American alliance was deepened, but at the same time the asymmetry in relations between the states increased. Even more than usual, symptoms of clientelism were noticeable in Poland's security policy towards the US, which was a consequence of the implementation of the offensive bandwagoning concept. I also argue that the tightening of Polish-American alliance was detrimental to the cohesion and solidarity in NATO and the EU, which was against the basic interests of Poland's security. During the research, the method of text source analysis was used. The research could support decision-makers in developing the basic principles of Poland's security policy towards the United States.
本文的目的是分析和评价在唐纳德·特朗普总统任期内的波美联盟在进攻性随大流的概念的角度。在波兰,美国总是被视为安全的主要外部保证者。出于这个原因,波兰的安全政策显然是亲美的。波兰法律与正义党(Law and Justice party)领导的波兰当局与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)领导的政府走到一起,有许多因素,包括意识形态上的亲密、与西欧政治精英的争端、法治和民主原则的相对化,以及对中欧和东欧地缘政治的相似看法。我认为,近年来,波美同盟加深了,但与此同时,两国关系的不对称也在增加。在波兰对美国的安全政策中,庇护主义的症状比往常更为明显,这是实施进攻性随波附和概念的结果。我还认为,波美同盟的收紧不利于北约和欧盟的凝聚力和团结,这违背了波兰安全的基本利益。在研究过程中,采用了文本源分析的方法。这项研究可以支持决策者制定波兰对美安全政策的基本原则。
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引用次数: 0
SYMBOLS MATTER: IMPERIAL DIPLOMACY IN POSTWAR JAPAN 象征很重要:战后日本的帝国外交
Pub Date : 2022-06-30 DOI: 10.12775/tis.2022.005
K. Żakowski, Sylwia Łagnowska
This article analyzes the significance of imperial diplomacy in postwar Japan. While the emperor performed many formal duties, he played only a symbolic role in decision-making process and was usually separated from politics. Nevertheless, the symbolic importance of the emperor was periodically used by politicians to promote friendly relations with other countries. The main aim of the article is to examine to what extent Japanese decision-makers took advantage of the emperor in diplomacy through drafting his speeches, arranging his appointments with foreign statespersons, and planning his visits abroad to realize their own foreign policy goals. Relying on institutional and legal analysis as well as short case studies, the authors argue that while the emperor was used in foreign policy, the reverence towards the emperor made such initiatives particularly controversial. The article tries to fill the gap in research on imperial diplomacy, which has been dominated by biographical studies on individual emperors.
本文分析了战后日本帝国外交的意义。虽然天皇履行了许多正式职责,但他在决策过程中只是象征性的角色,通常与政治分开。尽管如此,日本天皇的象征意义还是时不时地被政客们用来促进与其他国家的友好关系。本文的主要目的是考察日本决策者在多大程度上利用天皇在外交上的优势,通过起草他的演讲,安排他与外国政治家的会面,以及计划他的海外访问来实现自己的外交政策目标。依靠制度和法律分析以及简短的案例研究,作者认为,虽然皇帝在外交政策中被使用,但对皇帝的敬畏使这些倡议特别有争议。本文试图填补以皇帝个人传记研究为主的帝国外交研究的空白。
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引用次数: 0
PUBLIC AID AS AN EFFICIENT TOOL FOR DEVELOPING THE RAIL SECTOR IN EU MEMBER STATES 公共援助是发展欧盟成员国铁路部门的有效工具
Pub Date : 2022-06-30 DOI: 10.12775/tis.2022.006
Marta Postuła, S. Jarecki, Krzysztof Jaworski
Rail transport is paramount for the functioning of a sustainable and efficient transport system. EU policy identifying significant role of rail translates into a strong financial support allocated to the transport sector both in the form of services funding and of infrastructure investments. In the study conducted, the impact of public support for rail transport was analyzed in reference to several indicators describing the condition of that sector. The analysis covered an assessment of the impact of public support granted based on PSO – Public Service Obligation, and of the support for infrastructure investments. The results reveal a great variability of the outcome across countries. Countries which provide stronger support for infrastructure investments are characterized, as a rule, by better performance. In the Authors’ opinion, strengthening the support for infrastructure investments at the expense of support granted as part of PSO should be the path for rail funding policy redefinition.
铁路运输对于可持续和高效的运输系统的运作至关重要。欧盟政策确定了铁路的重要作用,这转化为以服务资金和基础设施投资的形式向运输部门提供强有力的财政支持。在进行的研究中,参考描述该部门状况的几个指标,分析了公众支持铁路运输的影响。分析包括对基于公共服务义务(PSO)提供的公共支持的影响的评估,以及对基础设施投资的支持。研究结果显示,各国的结果存在很大差异。为基础设施投资提供更有力支持的国家通常表现更好。在作者看来,加强对基础设施投资的支持,牺牲作为PSO一部分的支持,应该是重新定义铁路融资政策的途径。
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引用次数: 0
EFFECTIVITY OF PUBLIC INTERNATIONAL LAW 国际公法的效力
Pub Date : 2022-06-30 DOI: 10.12775/tis.2022.001
Sopio Kiladze
Last century was significant for the public international law, which has developed rapidly, bringing some improvements regarding protecting human right despite the fact, it faces huge challenges regarding its effectivity. Through descriptive, normative and critical methods of research the article attempts to show, that there is a need for paradigm change in order to make public international law more effective. But what should be a new paradigm? What can increase the effectivity of the public international law? To answer these questions, the detailed inspection of the term of effectivity, as well as creation and the enforcement processes of the public international law norms is needed. Research shows common consent of states, legitimate constitutive act, authority as well as appropriate enforcement are pillars, based on which the public international law can uphold its effect. However, it will take some time.
上个世纪是国际公法的重要时期,国际公法发展迅速,在保护人权方面取得了一些进步,但其有效性面临着巨大的挑战。通过描述性、规范性和批判性的研究方法,本文试图表明,为了使国际公法更加有效,有必要进行范式变革。但是新的范例应该是什么呢?怎样才能提高国际公法的效力?为了回答这些问题,需要对国际公法规范的效力期限以及制定和执行过程进行详细的审查。研究表明,各国的共同同意、合法的构成行为、权威和适当的执行是国际公法维持其效力的支柱。然而,这需要一些时间。
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引用次数: 0
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