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Decoding the cost reduction of offshore wind technology through learning curves: A meta analysis 通过学习曲线解读海上风电技术的成本降低:一项元分析
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108317
Sijia Lin , Yuan Xu
Offshore wind has become a central pillar in the global energy transition as deployment expands and technology advances. This study develops a novel review and meta-analysis framework based on 45 learning curves to bridge divides between econometric and engineering perspectives and clarify how component characteristics and contextual factors shape offshore wind cost trajectories. Component-based learning curves recognize technological maturity differences between above-water and under-water components and their relatedness to onshore wind knowledge, with respective cost shares of 40 % and 60 % generating learning-by-doing variations of comparable magnitude. The learning-by-doing rates estimated for turbine manufacturing, capacity installation, and electricity generation at 7 %, 9 %, and 13 % indicate intensified cost reductions when emerging components are assessed jointly. Multi-factor learning curves capture contextual influences beyond cumulative outputs and show that learning spillovers and R&D investments drive cost reductions, whereas project expansions into further-offshore and deeper seas slow progress. By examining how model specifications and variable inclusions affect learning-by-doing rate estimates, fixed-effects and random-effects meta-regressions yield robust findings: One-factor learning curves overestimate learning-by-doing rates by 5.67 % relative to multi-factor models; installation-cost metrics derive learning-by-doing rates about 48 % lower than LCOE-based estimates; technological maturation decreases them by 2.2 % over time, indexed by the midpoint of the learning curve's temporal horizon; and industry-wide learning spillovers increase them by 6.83 %. These findings strengthen empirical foundations and provide practical guidance for future offshore wind cost research by underscoring the importance of evolving component cost structures, cross-industry technological relatedness, contextual interdependence, and broader policy and socio-economic implications of sustained cost reductions.
随着部署的扩大和技术的进步,海上风电已经成为全球能源转型的中心支柱。本研究基于45条学习曲线开发了一种新颖的综述和元分析框架,以弥合计量经济学和工程观点之间的分歧,并阐明组件特征和环境因素如何影响海上风电成本轨迹。基于组件的学习曲线识别了水上和水下组件之间的技术成熟度差异,以及它们与陆上风电知识的相关性,各自的成本份额分别为40%和60%,产生了相当规模的“边做边学”变化。涡轮机制造、容量安装和发电的“边做边学”率分别为7%、9%和13%,这表明在对新兴部件进行联合评估时,成本降低幅度加大。多因素学习曲线捕捉了累积产出之外的环境影响,并表明学习溢出效应和研发投资推动了成本降低,而项目向更远的近海和更深的海洋扩展则减缓了进展。通过检验模型规格和变量包含如何影响做中学习率估计,固定效应和随机效应元回归得出了稳健的发现:相对于多因素模型,单因素学习曲线高估了做中学习率5.67%;安装成本指标的“边做边学”率比基于lcoe的估计低48%;随着时间的推移,技术成熟会使他们减少2.2%,以学习曲线的时间范围的中点为索引;全行业的学习溢出效应使其增加了6.83%。这些发现强调了不断变化的组件成本结构、跨行业技术相关性、环境相互依赖性以及持续降低成本的更广泛的政策和社会经济影响的重要性,从而加强了实证基础,并为未来的海上风电成本研究提供了实际指导。
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引用次数: 0
Quantifying environmental benefits of monomaterial transition in flexible packaging applications 量化软包装应用中单材料转换的环境效益
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108321
Roberta Stefanini, Giuseppe Vignali
The increasing use of plastic packaging has raised environmental concerns for their disposal. A barrier to recyclability is the popularity of multilayer solutions, consisting of different polymer films, with high-performance barrier, but with almost no material separability. Since circular economy calls for the design for recycling, a strategy is the reduction of structural complexity, favouring single-material configurations that can be processed in mechanical recycling streams.
In this context, this work aims at quantifying the environmental benefits potentially associated to the substitution of multi-material food packaging with recyclable ones. Three types of products have been selected as case studies: coffee (1 kg), dried fruit (200 g), cheese (200 g). Through Life Cycle Assessments (LCA), their conventional packaging configuration composed of polyethene terephthalate (PET), polyethylene (PE), aluminium, in complex multilayers, were compared with alternatives based primarily on polypropylene (PP) or polyethylene derivatives. Primary data on packaging composition, production process, transports, auxiliary materials were collected, supplemented by secondary data from Ecoinvent database. Attention was paid to end of lives, modelled using national consortium reports and RecyClass European tool.
Results shows that material choice and production influence packaging environmental impacts, with monomaterials generally performing better in gas emissions and eutrophication, while in resource- and water-related impacts show no clear advantage. End-of-life management is crucial, as proper recycling of monomaterials can significantly enhance sustainability, highlighting the need for consumer awareness and careful evaluation of trade-offs by manufactures. Since results depend on context and material, requiring case-by-case evaluation, future research need to expand products coverage.
塑料包装的使用越来越多,引起了人们对其处理的环境问题的关注。可回收性的一个障碍是多层解决方案的流行,由不同的聚合物薄膜组成,具有高性能的屏障,但几乎没有材料可分离性。由于循环经济要求设计为回收,策略是减少结构复杂性,有利于单一材料配置,可以在机械回收流程中处理。在这种情况下,这项工作旨在量化与可回收的多材料食品包装替代相关的潜在环境效益。选择了三种产品作为案例研究:咖啡(1公斤),干果(200克),奶酪(200克)。通过生命周期评估(LCA),他们的传统包装结构组成的聚乙烯对苯二甲酸乙二醇酯(PET),聚乙烯(PE),铝,在复杂的多层,主要基于聚丙烯(PP)或聚乙烯衍生物的替代品进行比较。收集了包装成分、生产过程、运输、辅助材料等主要数据,辅以Ecoinvent数据库的辅助数据。使用国家联盟报告和欧洲回收类工具进行建模,重点关注生命周期结束。结果表明,材料的选择和生产影响包装的环境影响,单一材料通常在气体排放和富营养化方面表现更好,而在资源和水相关的影响方面没有明显的优势。报废管理至关重要,因为单一材料的适当回收可以大大提高可持续性,突出了消费者意识和制造商仔细评估权衡的必要性。由于结果取决于上下文和材料,需要逐个评估,未来的研究需要扩大产品覆盖范围。
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引用次数: 0
A BIM-based integrated framework for building sustainability assessment in India: Framework development, implementation, and climate sensitivity analysis 基于bim的印度建筑可持续性评估综合框架:框架开发、实施和气候敏感性分析
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108318
M.J. Mohammad Nasir , Mayank Suman , P. Ravi Prakash
The building sector consumes vast resources and energy, contributing significantly to environmental degradation. Addressing these challenges requires Building Sustainability Assessment (BSA) methods such as Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA), and Green Building Rating Systems (GBRSs). This paper presents a BIM-BSA framework in the Indian context, integrating Building Information Modeling (BIM) with LCA, LCCA, and the GRIHA-2019 and IGBC rating systems. Dynamo scripting extracts data from BIM models, while Excel VBA macros process it to calculate environmental impacts, life cycle costs, and GBRS scores. The framework also establishes a systematic mapping of GRIHA-2019 and IGBC appraisal/credit points across life cycle phases and sustainability criteria (procedural, environmental, economic, social, and innovation). The framework is validated with an office building in northwestern India, including uncertainty analysis of BSA parameters. Results highlight that the operational phase is the major contributor to environmental impacts and life cycle costs. The building’s performance in the GRIHA-2019 and IGBC rating systems is evaluated against the combined lens of LCA and LCCA, a perspective that has been limited in prior literature. Discrepancies are observed between the life cycle distribution of LCA impacts and environmental credit allocations in both GBRSs. Climate sensitivity analysis across five Indian climate zones reveals significant variation in life cycle impacts and costs, while GBRS scores remain nearly unchanged, highlighting limited climate responsiveness. The framework culminates in a comprehensive BSA in the Indian context, providing a decision-support system for evaluating sustainable building design strategies, and also identifies certain limitations in the GRIHA-2019 and IGBC rating systems.
建筑行业消耗大量资源和能源,严重加剧了环境恶化。应对这些挑战需要建筑可持续性评估(BSA)方法,如生命周期评估(LCA)、生命周期成本分析(LCCA)和绿色建筑评级系统(GBRSs)。本文介绍了印度背景下的BIM- bsa框架,将建筑信息模型(BIM)与LCA, LCCA以及GRIHA-2019和IGBC评级系统集成在一起。Dynamo脚本从BIM模型中提取数据,而Excel VBA宏处理数据以计算环境影响、生命周期成本和GBRS分数。该框架还建立了GRIHA-2019和IGBC跨生命周期阶段和可持续性标准(程序、环境、经济、社会和创新)评估/信用点的系统映射。该框架以印度西北部的一座办公楼为例进行了验证,包括对BSA参数的不确定性分析。结果强调,运营阶段是环境影响和生命周期成本的主要贡献者。该建筑在GRIHA-2019和IGBC评级系统中的表现是根据LCA和LCCA的组合镜头进行评估的,这一视角在先前的文献中受到限制。在两个gbrs中,LCA影响的生命周期分布与环境信用分配之间存在差异。对印度五个气候带的气候敏感性分析显示,生命周期影响和成本存在显著差异,而GBRS得分几乎保持不变,表明气候响应能力有限。该框架最终形成了印度背景下的综合BSA,为评估可持续建筑设计策略提供了决策支持系统,并确定了GRIHA-2019和IGBC评级系统中的某些限制。
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引用次数: 0
Bridging science and policy towards integrated management of Urban plastic pollution: A global review of patterns, drivers, and solutions 城市塑料污染综合管理的科学和政策桥梁:模式、驱动因素和解决方案的全球回顾
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108323
Haoran Liu , Jingwen Luo , Jingyi Xing , Lena Ciric , Manpreet Bhatti
Plastic pollution is an unavoidable challenge in the process of urban development. It poses significant threats to both residents and urban ecosystems, with reports indicating the presence of plastic in various environmental media. While local governments have made efforts to control plastic pollution, these measures often focus narrowly on disposable plastics and lack comprehensive coordination and guidance. This review aims to address these problems by integrating urban plastic pollution research, management strategies, and policy. The analysis reveals that current urban plastic pollution studies are mainly concentrated in East Asia and Europe. Furthermore, differences are observed in the size, color, and types of plastics across various locations. As an effective comparative analysis tool, meta-analysis demonstrates that plastics of different particle sizes exhibit similar distribution patterns. However, certain urban and suburban areas show plastic concentrations significantly higher than the global average in specific media. An examination of the relationships between GDP, population, and plastic pollution levels indicates no clear global correlation among these factors. However, at continental or national scales, a linear correlation becomes apparent. The review also lists tools and policies that offer practical solutions for managing urban plastic pollution in both developed and developing countries. Additionally, it highlights social forces that can be mobilized to support plastic pollution management. The findings provide targeted recommendations for global urban plastic pollution control, contributing to the development of a comprehensive system that integrates scientific research, investigation, and policy management.
塑料污染是城市发展过程中不可避免的挑战。它对居民和城市生态系统都构成了重大威胁,有报告表明塑料存在于各种环境介质中。虽然地方政府已经努力控制塑料污染,但这些措施往往只局限于一次性塑料,缺乏全面的协调和指导。本文旨在通过对城市塑料污染研究、管理策略和政策的整合来解决这些问题。分析表明,目前对城市塑料污染的研究主要集中在东亚和欧洲。此外,不同地区的塑料在大小、颜色和类型上也存在差异。作为一种有效的比较分析工具,meta分析表明不同粒径的塑料具有相似的分布模式。然而,某些城市和郊区在特定介质中的塑料浓度明显高于全球平均水平。对GDP、人口和塑料污染水平之间关系的研究表明,这些因素之间没有明确的全球相关性。然而,在大陆或国家尺度上,线性相关性变得明显。报告还列出了发达国家和发展中国家为管理城市塑料污染提供切实可行解决方案的工具和政策。此外,它还强调了可以动员的社会力量来支持塑料污染管理。研究结果为全球城市塑料污染控制提供了有针对性的建议,有助于建立一个集科学研究、调查和政策管理为一体的综合系统。
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引用次数: 0
Explainable machine learning reveals the nonlinear relationships between green innovation and coordinated urban-rural development: Evidence from the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, China 可解释性机器学习揭示绿色创新与城乡协调发展的非线性关系——来自长三角城市群的证据
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108320
Zhonghu Zhang , Rui Wang , Siqi Zhang , Wenqin Meng
Green innovation serves as a vital component for achieving Coordinated Urban-Rural Development (CUD) and the Sustainable Development Goals. This study constructs a multidimensional theoretical framework encompassing technological, institutional, economic, and ecological dimensions. By employing the XGBoost-SHAP model, we analyze the nonlinear associations between multi-dimensional green innovation elements and CUD across 41 cities in China's Yangtze River Delta (2011−2021). The results indicate that green patent granted (GPA) and the proportion of the Internet population (PIP) are pivotal features, exhibiting inflection points at 0.29 and 0.3, respectively. Once these thresholds are exceeded, their contribution to alleviating urban-rural gap increases significantly. Interaction analysis reveals that the concurrent growth of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and the Tertiary Industry Proportion (TIP) is linked to an intensified urban-rural gap, highlighting the exclusionary nature of high-end service sector investments. By balancing single-factor threshold regulation with multi-factor synergies, this research identifies optimal combined contribution intervals to establish precise regulatory pathways for green innovation, thereby narrowing the urban-rural divide.
绿色创新是实现城乡协调发展和可持续发展目标的重要组成部分。本研究构建了一个包含技术、制度、经济和生态维度的多维理论框架。采用XGBoost-SHAP模型,分析了2011 - 2021年中国长三角41个城市多维绿色创新要素与CUD的非线性关系。结果表明,绿色专利授权(GPA)和互联网人口比例(PIP)是关键特征,分别在0.29和0.3处出现拐点。一旦超过这些阈值,它们对缓解城乡差距的贡献就会显著增加。相互作用分析表明,外商直接投资(FDI)和第三产业比重(TIP)同步增长与城乡差距加剧有关,凸显了高端服务业投资的排他性。通过平衡单因素阈值调控与多因素协同效应,确定最优组合贡献区间,构建绿色创新的精准调控路径,从而缩小城乡差距。
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引用次数: 0
A comparative life cycle assessment between conventional and organic chickpea cultivation in southern Italy 意大利南部传统鹰嘴豆种植与有机鹰嘴豆种植的生命周期比较评估
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108315
Nicola Minafra, Carlo Ingrao, Tiziana Crovella, Annarita Paiano, Giovanni Lagioia
<div><div>Legumes combine a high protein intake with reduced environmental impact and are suitable for application in rotational cropping systems, with the twofold function of producing grains and fixing N into the soil. By doing so, whether put in combination with low-input systems, they can contribute to implementing sustainable agriculture paths. Chickpea is the third most consumed grain legume in the world, and its nitrogen-fixing capacity can be beneficial for the next crops for improving soil fertility, structure, and water retention capacity and for reducing chemical fertilizer production and application. Despite the benefits, it is however needed to explore the relevant environmental sustainability issues associated with chickpea cultivation. To that end, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is proven valid methodology to compare cropping system alternatives, to support decision making. In this study, LCA was used in fact to compare conventional vs. organic cultivation of chickpea grains in Southern Italy in the period 2020–2022, through LCA application with a cradle-to-gate approach, using the EF 3.1 method.</div><div>For the assessment, following previously published LCAs,1 kg asported N was chosen as the functional unit (FU), to make allocation possible between the harvested chickpea grains (modelled as kg eq of asported N), and the N leftover, thereby best representing the twofold function of the investigated system to produce legumes and fix N into the soil.</div><div>From a review of the literature, the authors found that only a few LCAs have been developed that dealt with chickpea cultivation, which highlights the relevant contribution that this article is expected to make to specialized literature. This study represents one of the few LCAs focused exclusively on chickpea cultivation, providing a comparative analysis of conventional and organic systems, using an innovative N-based functional unit and an allocation between grain yield and nitrogen fixation.</div><div>With such a FU, organic cultivation resulted to be more environmentally damaging (7.81 mPt vs. 3.40 mPt) than the conventional one, due to its lower yields that amplify the environmental impacts per unit of product. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis was incorporated in the study to explore the extent to which the choice of other FUs influence results from the assessment. The study highlighted, in particular, that results change in favour of the organic system in the case of a surface-based FU, thanks to the reduced agricultural activities and inputs per unit of ha (252 mPt for organic farming, and 279 mPt for conventional farming).</div><div>These findings suggest that, while organic cultivation performs better from an environmental sustainability perspective, conventional farming is more efficient in terms of productivity.</div><div>The study contributed to understanding the importance of FU selection in LCAs and provided valuable insights that can be useful to farmers for impro
豆科植物蛋白质摄入量高,对环境影响小,适合在轮作制度中应用,具有生产谷物和将氮固定到土壤中的双重功能。通过这样做,无论是与低投入系统相结合,它们都可以为实施可持续农业道路作出贡献。鹰嘴豆是世界上消费量第三大的豆科作物,其固氮能力可以为未来作物改善土壤肥力、结构和保水能力以及减少化肥的生产和施用提供有利条件。尽管有好处,但有必要探讨与鹰嘴豆种植相关的环境可持续性问题。为此,生命周期评估(LCA)被证明是比较不同种植制度、支持决策的有效方法。在本研究中,LCA实际上用于比较2020-2022年期间意大利南部鹰嘴豆谷物的传统和有机种植,通过LCA应用于从摇篮到大门的方法,使用EF 3.1方法。在评估中,根据先前发表的LCAs,选择1 kg输运氮作为功能单位(FU),以便在收获的鹰嘴豆籽粒(以输运氮的kg当量为模型)和剩余氮之间进行分配,从而最好地代表所研究系统生产豆类和将氮固定到土壤中的双重功能。通过对相关文献的梳理,作者发现目前仅有少数涉及鹰嘴豆种植的lca,这凸显了本文对专业文献的相关贡献。本研究是为数不多的专注于鹰嘴豆种植的lca之一,采用创新的n基功能单元和籽粒产量与固氮之间的分配,对传统系统和有机系统进行了比较分析。在这样的FU下,有机种植比传统种植对环境的破坏更大(7.81 mPt vs. 3.40 mPt),因为其较低的产量放大了单位产品对环境的影响。此外,研究中还纳入了敏感性分析,以探讨其他FUs的选择对评估结果的影响程度。该研究特别强调,由于减少了每公顷的农业活动和投入(有机农业为2.52亿吨/公顷,传统农业为2.79亿吨/公顷),在基于表面的FU的情况下,结果的变化有利于有机系统。这些发现表明,虽然从环境可持续性的角度来看,有机耕作表现更好,但就生产力而言,传统耕作效率更高。该研究有助于理解FU选择在LCAs中的重要性,并提供了有价值的见解,可以帮助农民提高鹰嘴豆生产系统的可持续性,也可以帮助从业者提高LCA在该研究内容领域的应用。
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引用次数: 0
Cold weather patterns and health impacts across climate regions in a warming world: A systematic review at the global scale 在变暖的世界中,跨气候区域的寒冷天气模式和健康影响:全球尺度的系统回顾
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108311
Shuang Liu, Yawen Wang, Chao Ren
Climate change has resulted in warm winters with more frequent and severe temperature fluctuations, which pose remarkable challenges in assessing the new patterns of cold weather in varying climates. Such emerging winter patterns, characterized by factors like sudden temperature transitions from warm to cold, are less accounted for in current cold event assessments, leaving their health impacts unclear. In this study, we conducted a systematic review to: (1) categorize and compare the strengths and weaknesses of each cold event definition across climates, and evaluate how these methodological differences affect comparability of health outcomes; (2) qualitatively assess the suitability of existing cold event definitions in describing different extreme cold events; and (3) classify cold-health implications under various cold event definition types in order to guide the enhancement of cold weather warning systems across climates. A total of 163 studies from 48 countries across 15 Köppen climate zones were identified by March 2025, which analyzed the effects of cold on 58 different physiological and psychological health outcomes. The variations in adverse health impacts were attributed to different cold event definitions, reference periods, confounders, contextual climate, and population susceptibility to cold events. Current cold event definitions are inadequate for describing more frequent winter temperature fluctuation events, a pattern observed in over 60 % of the global area. The disparity between the cold event definitions used in research and those used by Cold Weather Warning systems (CWWs) restricts the applicability of current insights for CWWs refinement. Based on these understandings of urban-scale climate change and emerging winter patterns, a framework was proposed for future studies and cold-related service providers to develop suitable methods for assessing cold events-related health impacts that support early interventions.
气候变化导致冬季变暖,温度波动更加频繁和剧烈,这对评估不同气候下寒冷天气的新模式构成了重大挑战。这种新出现的冬季模式,以温度从温暖到寒冷的突然转变等因素为特征,在目前的寒冷事件评估中较少考虑,因此对健康的影响尚不清楚。在本研究中,我们进行了一项系统综述:(1)对不同气候条件下每种冷事件定义的优缺点进行分类和比较,并评估这些方法差异如何影响健康结果的可比性;(2)定性评价现有冷事件定义在描述不同极端冷事件时的适用性;(3)对不同冷事件定义类型下的冷健康影响进行分类,以指导不同气候条件下冷天气预警系统的加强。截至2025年3月,共确定了来自15个Köppen气候带的48个国家的163项研究,分析了寒冷对58种不同生理和心理健康结果的影响。不良健康影响的差异归因于不同的冷事件定义、参考期、混杂因素、背景气候和人群对冷事件的易感性。目前的冷事件定义不足以描述更频繁的冬季温度波动事件,这种模式在全球60%以上的地区都观察到。研究中使用的冷事件定义与冷天气预警系统(CWWs)使用的定义之间的差异限制了当前对CWWs改进的见解的适用性。基于对城市尺度气候变化和新出现的冬季模式的这些理解,提出了一个框架,供未来的研究和与寒冷相关的服务提供者制定适当的方法来评估与寒冷事件相关的健康影响,支持早期干预。
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引用次数: 0
Integrating SEEA-water accounting and machine learning for transparent SOP reform under non-cooperative groundwater use in irrigation districts 将SEEA-water会计与机器学习相结合,实现灌区非合作使用地下水的透明SOP改革
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108316
Seied Mehdy Hashemy Shahdany , Reza Rejaie
Under non-cooperative groundwater (GW) abstraction, irrigation districts require decision frameworks that couple predictive skill with implementable, auditable operating rules. A machine-learning framework was developed to replace manual standard operating procedures (SOPs) with cluster-informed surrogate SOPs derived from predictive models and regime (cluster) analysis. The System of Environmental–Economic Accounting for Water (SEEA-Water) physical supply–use information was integrated with Random Forest (RF) and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) predictors, and human-readable surrogate policies were extracted subject to operational constraints. Three SOP designs of increasing physical realism (SOP-A, SOP-B, and SOP-C) were evaluated in the Nekoo-Abad Irrigation District, Iran, using a blocked chronological split (training: 2000–2016; validation: 2017–2020; testing: 2021–2024), which was common to all models. Incorporation of seepage and operational losses, as well as reservoir-release limits (SOP-C), improved predictive skill relative to simpler designs. On the held-out test set, nonlinear models outperformed the linear baseline, with RF/MLP achieving R2 values of around 0.94–0.95 and RMSE values of around 0.08 m3/s, compared to R2 values of around 0.91 for multiple linear regression; robustness was maintained under drought-depleted regimes. Regime clustering further stabilized generalization by grouping days into homogeneous operational states. Feature attribution identified GW extraction and operational losses as the dominant drivers of return-flow variability, indicating actionable levers for management. Surrogate SOPs closely reproduced the machine-learning recommendations while remaining interpretable and constraint-aware, thereby translating data-driven predictions into deployable rules. The framework advances transparent, quantitatively validated decision support for conjunctive surface- and GW operations, enhancing reliability and adaptability under hydrologic variability and non-cooperative pumping.
在非合作抽取地下水的情况下,灌区需要将预测技能与可执行、可审计的操作规则相结合的决策框架。开发了一个机器学习框架,用从预测模型和制度(聚类)分析中获得的集群知情替代标准操作程序(sop)取代手动标准操作程序(sop)。水环境经济核算系统(SEEA-Water)物理供应-使用信息与随机森林(RF)和多层感知器(MLP)预测器相结合,并在操作约束下提取人类可读的替代政策。在伊朗nekooo - abad灌溉区,使用阻塞时间分割(训练:2000-2016年;验证:2017-2020年;测试:2021-2024年)对三种提高物理现实性的SOP设计(SOP- a、SOP- b和SOP- c)进行了评估,这对所有模型都是通用的。与简单的设计相比,将渗流和作业损失以及油藏释放极限(SOP-C)结合起来,提高了预测技能。在hold - hold测试集中,非线性模型优于线性基线,RF/MLP的R2值约为0.94-0.95,RMSE值约为0.08 m3/s,而多元线性回归的R2值约为0.91;在干旱枯竭的制度下,稳健性得以保持。状态聚类通过将天分组为均匀的操作状态进一步稳定了泛化。特征归因将GW提取和运营损失确定为回报流可变性的主要驱动因素,表明了管理的可操作杠杆。代理sop密切再现了机器学习建议,同时保持了可解释性和约束意识,从而将数据驱动的预测转换为可部署的规则。该框架为地面和GW联合作业提供了透明的、定量验证的决策支持,提高了水文变异性和非协同抽水的可靠性和适应性。
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引用次数: 0
Sustainable development of photovoltaic industry in China: An innovative multi-driver model 中国光伏产业可持续发展:一个创新的多驱动模式
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108314
Shijia Chong , Jing Wu , I-Shin Chang
To cope with the surging global energy demands and escalating environmental challenges, the sustainable development of the photovoltaic (PV) industry has become a pivotal solution for balancing energy security and ecological conservation. This study fills a critical gap in assessing China's PV industry sustainability by developing a context-adaptive multi-driver model, which systematically integrates economic, environmental, and resource dimensions and optimizes for China's regional heterogeneity and industrial constraints. The model incorporates core drivers (energy transition imperatives, technological advancements, economic incentives) and limiting factors (policy uncertainties, market competition pressures, land resource constraints) in the development of the PV industry to elucidate the multi-dimensional benefits, applying it to a provincial empirical analysis of sustainable potential. Findings reveal China's PV energy exhibits significant regional disparities, with economic costs ranging from 0.56 to 1.27CNY/kWh. A 1 kW PV plant generates annual environmental benefits of 37.24 to 655.19CNY, with developed regions demonstrating distinct carbon mitigation advantages. Land use benefits generally decline from southeast to northwest China. Employing the multi-driver evaluation model, the sustainability index (SI) of China's PV industry ranges from 0.09 to 0.83, with higher values in southeastern coastal regions compared to western inland areas. Thirty provinces are classified into three zones: Advantage Spearheading Zone, Potential Unleashing Zone, and Resource Unactivated Zone. Zone-specific strategies are proposed to promote the high-quality and sustainable development of the PV industry.
面对日益增长的全球能源需求和日益严峻的环境挑战,光伏产业的可持续发展已成为平衡能源安全和生态保护的关键解决方案。本研究通过构建一个环境自适应的多驱动模型,系统地整合了经济、环境和资源维度,并针对中国的区域异质性和产业约束进行了优化,填补了评估中国光伏产业可持续性的关键空白。该模型结合光伏产业发展的核心驱动因素(能源转型要求、技术进步、经济激励)和限制因素(政策不确定性、市场竞争压力、土地资源约束),阐明了光伏产业发展的多维效益,并将其应用于省级可持续潜力实证分析。研究结果显示,中国光伏能源存在显著的地区差异,经济成本在0.56至1.27元/千瓦时之间。1 kW光伏电站年环境效益为37.24 ~ 655.19元人民币,发达地区碳减排优势明显。土地利用效益总体上由东南向西北递减。采用多驱动因素评价模型,中国光伏产业可持续发展指数(SI)在0.09 ~ 0.83之间,东南沿海地区高于西部内陆地区。30个省份被划分为优势先行区、潜力释放区和资源未激活区。提出了促进光伏产业高质量可持续发展的区域战略。
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引用次数: 0
Multi-source straw used as a resource can reduce environmental and economic burdens 多源秸秆资源利用可以减轻环境和经济负担
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108313
Yuwei Zhao , Lu Chen , Wei Liu , Huiying Yang , Shuai Li , Xiaowei Cui , Zhaojie Cui
Straw, an agricultural byproduct, presents substantial environmental challenges due to its vast production volume and low utilization efficiency. Identifying low-carbon, scalable utilization pathways remains a globally significant challenge. China, the world’s largest producer and emitter of crop straw, continues to rely on inefficient disposal methods such as burning and uncontrolled stacking, highlighting the need for strategic management solutions. In this study, we focus on three representative types of straw—corn, wheat, and rice—employing an integrated life cycle assessment and cost–benefit analysis to quantitatively evaluate both the carbon mitigation potential and economic performance of nine straw-based resource utilization technologies. Results indicate that biogasification (BI) has the highest carbon mitigation potential, whereas hydrothermal carbonization yields superior economic returns. Scenario analysis reveals that regional resource endowments, policy incentives, and technological adoption rates significantly influence the optimal choice of straw utilization pathways. BI technology emerges as the most promising approach for delivering environmental and economic co-benefits at scale. Nationwide adoption of BI technology could reduce annual emissions by approximately 800 million tCO₂e, equivalent to a 73.2% mitigation increase over the baseline scenario, while increasing net profits by 76.1%. These findings provide actionable insights for China’s straw management strategies and offer implementable pathways to align circular agriculture with carbon peaking and neutrality goals.
秸秆作为一种农业副产品,其产量巨大,利用效率低,给环境带来了巨大挑战。确定低碳、可扩展的利用途径仍然是全球面临的重大挑战。作为世界上最大的农作物秸秆生产国和排放国,中国仍然依赖焚烧和不受控制的堆放等低效的处理方法,这突显出对战略管理解决方案的需求。本研究以玉米、小麦和水稻三种具有代表性的秸秆为研究对象,采用综合生命周期评估和成本效益分析,定量评价了九种秸秆资源利用技术的碳减排潜力和经济效益。结果表明,生物气化(BI)具有最高的碳减排潜力,而热液碳化具有更高的经济效益。情景分析表明,区域资源禀赋、政策激励和技术采用率显著影响秸秆利用途径的最优选择。商业智能(BI)技术是最有希望大规模实现环境和经济协同效益的方法。在全国范围内采用商业智能技术可使年排放量减少约8亿tCO₂e,相当于比基线情景减少73.2%的排放量,同时使净利润增加76.1%。这些发现为中国秸秆管理战略提供了可操作的见解,并提供了将循环农业与碳峰值和中和目标相结合的可行途径。
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Environmental Impact Assessment Review
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