Environmental Impact Assessment Review最新文献_第4页

System resilience measurement using input-output disaster analysis 使用投入产出灾害分析的系统弹性测量

IF 11.2 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2026.108331

Shiwei Zhou , Mengyu Li , Manfred Lenzen

As climate-related disasters intensify, developing effective mitigation and adaptation policies requires measuring the resilience of socio-economic systems. This study proposes a threshold-based resilience measurement framework grounded in input-output disaster analysis. Leveraging a global multi-regional input-output table, we introduce a novel negligible-loss threshold to identify non-resilient sectors and regions, and to quantify post-disaster system losses. Applying the method to marine heatwaves impacting blue food systems in North America and Pacific OECD countries, we evaluate the applicability of four input-output disaster models for resilience measurement. In this context, resilience is captured through transaction trade-off, adaptive capacity through resource reallocation, and adjustment capacity through micro-level input substitution. We find that input-output disaster models that lack substitution mechanisms, or allow only limited production optimization, systematically overestimate post-disaster system losses. Incorporating substitution mechanisms effectively avoids such overestimation, underscoring the pivotal role of adjustment capacity in mitigating disaster impacts and enhancing the blue food systems resilience. The proposed resilience measurement framework is applicable to both sudden-onset disasters and slow-onset production shocks, offering a practical tool for resilience analysis and risk-informed policy development.

随着与气候有关的灾害加剧，制定有效的缓解和适应政策需要衡量社会经济系统的复原力。本研究提出了一种基于投入产出灾害分析的阈值弹性测量框架。利用全球多区域投入产出表，我们引入了一个新的可忽略损失阈值，以识别非弹性部门和地区，并量化灾后系统损失。将该方法应用于影响北美和太平洋经合组织国家蓝色食品系统的海洋热浪，我们评估了四种投入产出灾害模型用于弹性测量的适用性。在这种情况下，弹性通过交易权衡、通过资源再分配获得适应能力、通过微观层面的投入替代获得调整能力。我们发现，缺乏替代机制或只允许有限生产优化的投入产出灾害模型会系统性地高估灾后系统损失。引入替代机制有效地避免了这种高估，强调了调整能力在减轻灾害影响和增强蓝色粮食系统恢复力方面的关键作用。提出的弹性测量框架既适用于突发性灾害，也适用于慢发性生产冲击，为弹性分析和风险知情政策制定提供了实用工具。

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引用次数: 0

Rethinking aluminum metabolism under China's new “old-for-new” policy: characteristics and environmental implications 重新思考中国“以旧换新”政策下的铝代谢：特征和环境影响

IF 11.2 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2026.108332

Wei Liu , Xianlai Zeng

Aluminum is a non-ferrous metal leading in consumption, energy, and carbon intensity. China's first “old-for-new” policy, initiated in 2009, accelerated the production, consumption, and obsolescence of aluminum-containing products. In 2024, the Chinese government launched a larger-scale version of the “old-for-new” program. In this new context, this study integrated material flow analysis and field survey to measure China's aluminum metabolism from 2009 to 2050. The new findings reveal that policy-driven interventions could amplify recycling potential by 83.3 % (appliances) and 50 % (vehicles) compared to the baseline, with environmental gains closely linked to the combinations of policy intensity. Consumer participation rates and recycling technology efficiency emerge as critical bottlenecks—synergistic optimization yields multiplier effects. Uncertainty analysis reveals 28 % (appliance) and 26–50 % (vehicles) variability in emission reduction and energy saving forecasts, while air conditioners and new energy vehicles drive 49 % of recycled aluminum growth in 2050. This study identified the key drivers that influence recycling potential and its environmental impacts, providing crucial support for managerial decision-making and a robust theoretical underpinning for optimizing aluminum management and advancing circular economy policies.

铝是一种在消费、能源和碳强度方面领先的有色金属。2009年，中国首次实施“以旧换新”政策，加速了含铝产品的生产、消费和淘汰。2024年，中国政府启动了规模更大的“以旧换新”计划。在此背景下，本研究采用物质流分析和实地调查相结合的方法，对2009 - 2050年中国的铝代谢进行了测量。新的研究结果表明，与基线相比，政策驱动的干预措施可以将回收潜力（家电）和（车辆）分别扩大83.3%和50%，环境收益与政策强度的组合密切相关。消费者参与率和回收技术效率成为关键瓶颈——协同优化产生乘数效应。不确定性分析显示，在减排和节能预测方面，28%（家电）和26% - 50%（汽车）的可变性，而到2050年，空调和新能源汽车将推动49%的再生铝增长。本研究确定了影响回收潜力及其环境影响的关键驱动因素，为管理决策提供了重要支持，并为优化铝管理和推进循环经济政策提供了坚实的理论基础。

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引用次数: 0

Revealing the transfer and impacts of ecological footprint embodied in interprovincial trade across China's metacoupled system 揭示中国元耦合系统中省际贸易生态足迹的转移及其影响

IF 11.2 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2026.108329

Ruqian Zhang , Penghui Li , Xiangbin Kong , Shuai Zhong , Lei Shen

Trade spatially separates production and consumption, driving metacoupling between resource use and consumption across distances. However, embodied ecological footprint transfers in China's interprovincial trade and their ecological impacts remain unclear, especially under the increasingly emphasized domestic circulation strategy. Here, we developed a holistic framework to distinguish and quantify the patterns, intensities, and impacts of ecological footprint flows across local (intracoupling), adjacent (pericoupling) and distant provinces (telecoupling) by combining metacoupling theory, an environmentally extended multi-regional input-output model, and trade scenario analysis. The results indicated that embodied ecological footprint transfers in China's interprovincial trade grew substantially from 1527.25 to 2099.66 million national hectares between 2007 and 2017. Telecoupling was the primary driver, accounting for over three-fourths of these flows and forming a distinct north-to-south spatial pattern from resource-rich provinces to Beijing, Tianjin, and the developed southeastern coastal provinces. Although intracoupling remained dominant in regional ecological resource consumption, its intensity declined, while telecoupling intensity rose continuously to 4.2 times that of pericoupling. Notably, interprovincial trade alleviated 12.5–34.6 % of national ecological pressure and improved ecological efficiency by 13.7–21.2 %, but markedly exacerbated the spatial mismatch between ecological costs and economic benefits, with telecoupling contributing far more than pericoupling. These findings highlight the need for a flow-based ecological compensation mechanism, particularly between coastal ecological–economic “double–win” provinces and inland “double-loss” provinces. This study provides crucial insights for promoting ecological equity and coordinated regional development.

贸易在空间上分离了生产和消费，推动了资源利用和消费之间的跨距离元耦合。然而，中国省际贸易的隐含生态足迹转移及其生态影响尚不清楚，特别是在日益强调国内流通战略的背景下。本文结合元耦合理论、环境扩展的多区域投入产出模型和贸易情景分析，构建了一个整体框架，以区分和量化生态足迹流动在本地（耦合内）、邻近（耦合外）和遥远省份（远耦合）之间的模式、强度和影响。结果表明：2007 - 2017年，中国省际贸易隐含生态足迹转移量从152725万公顷大幅增长至209966万公顷；远耦合是主要驱动力，占流动总量的四分之三以上，形成了从资源丰富省份向北京、天津和东南沿海发达省份由北向南的明显空间格局。虽然内耦合在区域生态资源消耗中仍占主导地位，但其强度有所下降，而远耦合强度持续上升，达到近耦合的4.2倍。值得注意的是，省际贸易缓解了12.5 - 34.6%的全国生态压力，提高了13.7 - 21.2%的生态效率，但显著加剧了生态成本与经济效益的空间失配，远耦合的贡献远大于近耦合。这些发现强调了建立以流量为基础的生态补偿机制的必要性，特别是在沿海生态经济“双赢”省份和内陆“双亏”省份之间。该研究对促进生态公平、促进区域协调发展具有重要意义。

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引用次数: 0

Centralized environmental management: Strengthening enforcement at jurisdictional boundaries 环境集中管理：加强管辖范围执法

IF 11.2 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2026.108328

Zifu Liu , Xiaoxiao Shen , Fan Xia , Bing Zhang

Decentralized environmental management often leads to local protectionism and inconsistent policy enforcement, resulting in strategic regulatory behavior and a failure to address interjurisdictional externalities. This study examines whether centralizing environmental governance helps mitigate these problems, using a vertical management system reform of environmental governance agencies below the province level in Jiangsu Province, China. We analyze the reform's impact by comparing changes in environmental enforcement at jurisdictional borders with those in inland areas. Leveraging novel, geocoded firm-level panel data on environmental inspections, we find that the centralization reform has strengthened enforcement at jurisdictional borders, increasing environmental warnings and penalties on border firms by 10.5 % ∼ 13.4 % relative to inland firms. Our findings suggest that centralizing environmental management improves environmental outcomes by curbing local governments' free-riding behavior and strengthening enforcement efforts.

分散的环境管理往往导致地方保护主义和政策执行不一致，导致战略性管制行为和未能处理管辖权间的外部因素。本研究以江苏省省级以下环境治理机构的纵向管理体制改革为研究对象，探讨了集中化环境治理是否有助于缓解这些问题。我们通过比较司法管辖区边界和内陆地区环境执法的变化来分析改革的影响。利用新颖的、地理编码的企业层面环境检查面板数据，我们发现集中化改革加强了司法管辖区边界的执法，相对于内陆企业，对边境企业的环境警告和处罚增加了10.5% ~ 13.4%。我们的研究结果表明，环境集中管理通过抑制地方政府搭便车行为和加强执法力度来改善环境结果。

引用次数: 0

Rapid economic impact assessment of nature-based solutions: Illustration of a co-constructed approach 基于自然的解决方案的快速经济影响评估：共同构建方法的说明

IF 11.2 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108326

José A. Albaladejo-García , María D. Medina-Vidal , Julia Martin-Ortega , Francisco Alcon

Amongst the multiple advantages attributed to nature-based solutions (NBS) over conventional and grey infrastructure, is their characterisation as economically efficient, i.e. that the benefits that they generate outweigh their costs. However, surprisingly little attention has been paid so far to generating quantified evidence to support this claim in the form of comprehensive cost-benefit analysis informing actual and specific environmental decisions in given territories. In the absence of such evidence, current enthusiasm for NBS might result in unfavourable decisions, disappointment and abandonment. In this paper, we illustrate a co-constructed approach developed in close collaboration with policy-makers and involving a range of stakeholders. This approach formally evaluates the well-being impacts of adopting NBS versus non-NBS alternatives for the mitigation of agricultural impacts in the ecologically stressed Mar Menor lagoon (Spain), building-up the evidence base of the economic efficiency of NBS. More importantly, the paper illustrates how to undertake rapid economic impact assessments that, when exposed and co-constructed with a range of stakeholders in participatory processes, can support complex policy decisions in response to climate and environmental emergencies in ways that are robust, transparent and socially acceptable. By maintaining scientific rigor while simplifying data demands, rapid co-constructed economic impact assessments can not only integrate ecosystem services and economic efficiency reasoning into environmental governance but can also serve as boundary objects for consensus building, awareness raising and collective experiential learning. This is of particularly critical importance in times of growing polarisation over environmental challenges.

与传统和灰色基础设施相比，基于自然的解决方案（NBS）具有多种优势，其中之一是它们具有经济效益，即它们产生的收益大于成本。然而，令人惊讶的是，迄今很少注意以综合成本效益分析的形式产生量化证据来支持这一主张，为特定领土的实际和具体环境决定提供信息。在缺乏此类证据的情况下，当前对国家统计局的热情可能导致不利的决定、失望和放弃。在本文中，我们阐述了与政策制定者密切合作并涉及一系列利益相关者的共同构建方法。该方法正式评估了采用国家统计局与非国家统计局替代方案对减轻生态紧张的Mar Menor泻湖（西班牙）农业影响的福祉影响，建立了国家统计局经济效率的证据基础。更重要的是，本文说明了如何进行快速的经济影响评估，当这些评估在参与过程中与一系列利益相关者共同构建时，可以以稳健、透明和社会可接受的方式支持应对气候和环境紧急情况的复杂政策决策。通过在简化数据需求的同时保持科学严谨性，快速共建经济影响评估不仅可以将生态系统服务和经济效率推理纳入环境治理，还可以作为建立共识、提高认识和集体经验学习的边界对象。在环境挑战日益两极化的时代，这一点尤为重要。

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引用次数: 0

The carbon footprint of Spanish tourists. Determinants and consumption patterns. 西班牙游客的碳足迹。决定因素和消费模式。

IF 11.2 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2026.108327

Mario Burgui-Burgui , Marta Rodríguez-Rey , María Jesús Such-Devesa , Imaculada Aguado-Suárez , María Jesús Salado-García

This study examines the carbon footprint of tourists using a bottom-up approach that enables detailed and personalised measurement. Based on a survey of a representative sample of 980 Spanish tourists, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were assessed across different categories of consumption and transport. The results indicate that transport accounts for the largest proportion of CO₂ emissions (almost half of the total), followed by food expenditure, tourism activities and accommodation. The analysis also reveals differences in carbon footprint according to sociodemographic factors such as age, income and education level, emphasising that transport, especially in international destinations, is a major source of emissions. This study helps to identify consumption patterns that can inform the design of policies aimed at reducing the carbon footprint of Spanish tourists.

本研究采用自下而上的方法对游客的碳足迹进行了调查，从而实现了详细和个性化的测量。基于对980名西班牙游客的代表性样本的调查，温室气体（GHG）排放量在不同类别的消费和运输中进行了评估。结果表明，交通所占的CO₂排放量最大（几乎占总排放量的一半），其次是食品支出、旅游活动和住宿。该分析还揭示了不同社会人口因素（如年龄、收入和教育水平）在碳足迹方面的差异，并强调交通运输，尤其是国际目的地的交通运输，是碳排放的主要来源。这项研究有助于确定消费模式，可以为旨在减少西班牙游客碳足迹的政策设计提供信息。

引用次数: 0

Ignoring food affordability biases environmental assessments of China's healthy diet transition 忽视食品可负担性对中国健康饮食转型的环境评估存在偏见

IF 11.2 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108324

Qingling Wang , Han Zhang , Meng Li , Heran Zheng

The Chinese Dietary Guidelines (CDG) establish benchmarks for healthy dietary transitions. Yet complying with CDG can be expensive, putting the recommended diet out of reach for many low-income populations. Previous studies assume universal adoption of CDG, overlooking food affordability concerns and thereby biasing environmental impact estimates of dietary transitions. This study integrates affordability as an economic constraint into the traditional CDG to formulate optimized versions for China's rural populations. Using the recent household consumption data (2015) and a multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model, we estimate four environmental footprints of their anticipated dietary shifts. We found that neglecting affordability constraints can lead to an overestimation of environmental burdens related to GHG emissions (0.49 Gt CO₂-eq), land use (25.29 kha), and eutrophication (1.85 Mt PO₄-eq), while underestimating the benefits in water use, which could potentially save 0.24 Bm³. On average, when affordability constraints are incorporated, the estimated environmental footprint of expected dietary transitions is approximately 38.4 % (95% CI: 37.6–40.0 %) lower than that of the original CDG scenario. Dairy and beef collectively account for 44.2–83.3 % of this reduction, which is mainly attributable to rural populations' limited food budgets. Our findings highlight that incorporating affordability considerations for vulnerable populations is essential in promoting healthy dietary practices. Such integration is crucial not only for enhancing the real-world adoption of official guidelines but also for providing reliable evaluations of the environmental impacts linked to food system transformations.

中国膳食指南（CDG）建立了健康膳食转换的基准。然而，遵守CDG可能代价高昂，使许多低收入人群无法实现推荐的饮食。先前的研究假设普遍采用CDG，忽略了食品负担能力问题，从而使饮食转变的环境影响估计产生偏差。本研究将可负担性作为经济约束纳入传统的可持续发展目标，以制定适合中国农村人口的优化版本。利用最近的家庭消费数据（2015年）和多区域投入产出（MRIO）模型，我们估计了他们预期饮食变化的四个环境足迹。我们发现，忽视可负担性约束可能导致高估与温室气体排放（0.49 Gt CO₂-eq）、土地利用（25.29 kha）和富营养化（1.85 Mt PO₄-eq）相关的环境负担，而低估了水资源利用的效益，这可能会节省0.24 Bm3。平均而言，当考虑到可负担性限制因素时，预期饮食转变的估计环境足迹约比原始CDG情景低38.4% （95% CI: 37.6 - 40.0%）。乳制品和牛肉合计占减少量的44.2 - 83.3%，这主要是由于农村人口的粮食预算有限。我们的研究结果强调，在促进健康饮食习惯方面，将弱势群体的负担能力考虑在内是至关重要的。这种整合不仅对提高官方指导方针在现实世界中的采用至关重要，而且对提供与粮食系统转型有关的环境影响的可靠评估也至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

A decade of disruption: The threat of international events to global economic and environmental sustainability 混乱的十年：国际事件对全球经济和环境可持续性的威胁

IF 11.2 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108322

Dengcheng Han , David Z. Zhu , Guohe Huang , Sichen Gao

Sustainable development worldwide has been seriously influenced by the disturbance of global supply chains resulting from dynamic international events such as tariff disputes, global epidemics, and regional trade agreements. Amidst efforts to advance global sustainability, events like the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the Sino-US trade war have reshaped the landscape. Thus, the interactive impacts of multiple events on the achievements of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) selected from economic-environmental perspectives (EESDGs, including 13 targets across 10 goals) will be assessed in this study. The alteration of global supply chains among countries and the challenge of regional economy and environment will be emphasized, deepening the understanding of the mechanism behind EESDG changes. Our results suggest that the global pandemic has the weakest negative effect on national EESDG performance (∼1 %), while trade and energy restrictions between the European Union and Russia lead to a much larger reduction (∼7 %). Continued China–United States trade frictions are associated with decreases by ∼4 % for the United States and ∼ 2 % for China. In contrast, the regional trading agreement appears to generate positive effects (2.5–3.6 %). When all four events occur together, the most affected country experiences an overall reduction by ∼5 %. By delivering a comprehensive analysis of both the barriers and potential pathways forward, this study provides valuable insights into seeking effective policies to foster a more sustainable future.

关税争端、全球流行病和区域贸易协定等动态国际事件对全球供应链造成干扰，严重影响了世界范围内的可持续发展。在推动全球可持续发展的努力中，新冠肺炎大流行、俄乌冲突、中美贸易战等事件重塑了这一格局。因此，本研究将评估从经济-环境角度选择的多个事件对可持续发展目标（sdg）实现的互动影响（EESDGs，包括10个目标中的13个目标）。强调国家间全球供应链的变化以及区域经济和环境的挑战，加深对EESDG变化背后机制的理解。我们的研究结果表明，全球大流行对国家EESDG绩效的负面影响最小（约1%），而欧盟和俄罗斯之间的贸易和能源限制导致的降幅要大得多（约7%）。持续的中美贸易摩擦对美国和中国的影响分别为4%和2%。相比之下，区域贸易协定似乎产生了积极的影响（2.5% - 3.6%）。当这四种事件同时发生时，受影响最严重的国家总体减少约5%。通过对障碍和潜在前进路径的全面分析，本研究为寻求有效政策以促进更可持续的未来提供了宝贵的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Lake carbon storage as environmental impact indicator: A multi-decadal assessment framework for evaluating sustainable development pathways 湖泊碳储量作为环境影响指标：评价可持续发展路径的多年评估框架

IF 11.2 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108325

Zijie Zhang, Yishuai Ma, Jinhui Jeanne Huang

Rapid environmental impact assessment (EIA) of urban development traditionally relies on static indicators that fail to capture cumulative effects and sustainability transitions. We develop an innovative impact assessment framework using dissolved organic carbon (DOC) storage as a sensitive environmental indicator to evaluate the cumulative impacts of economic development policies. Our methodology integrates 36 years (1987–2022) of Landsat-derived chromophoric dissolved organic matter data, lake bathymetry, landscape pattern analysis, and composite socioeconomic indices to quantify column-integrated DOC dynamics in China's Chaohu Lake. The framework reveals that while DOC storage declined overall (−0.065 g m⁻² yr⁻¹), landscape drivers dominated system responses, with grassland degradation (29.5 %) and fragmentation (16.3 %) emerging as primary impact factors. Critically, our Tapio decoupling analysis exposes hidden sustainability trade-offs: long-term strong decoupling between DOC loss and urbanization indices demonstrated “green development” effectiveness, yet rapid industrial restructuring policies (2017–2018) triggered expansive coupling and negative decoupling states, temporarily reversing environmental gains. This methodological advancement transforms EIA from reactive project evaluation to proactive sustainability monitoring, establishing lake carbon storage as a transferable early-warning indicator for policy-environment interactions. The framework enables planners to quantitatively assess whether economic transitions remain within planetary carbon limits while advancing Sustainable Development Goal 11, providing a paradigm shift towards adaptive EIA for sustainable urban development.

城市发展的快速环境影响评估传统上依赖于静态指标，这些指标无法捕捉累积效应和可持续性转变。我们开发了一个创新的影响评估框架，将溶解有机碳（DOC）储量作为一个敏感的环境指标来评估经济发展政策的累积影响。我们的方法整合了36年（1987-2022）的陆地卫星数据、湖泊水深、景观格局分析和综合社会经济指数，量化了中国巢湖的柱集成DOC动态。该框架显示，虽然DOC储量总体下降（- 0.065 gm−2 yr−1），但景观驱动因素主导了系统响应，草地退化（29.5%）和破碎化（16.3%）成为主要影响因素。重要的是，我们的Tapio脱钩分析揭示了潜在的可持续性权衡：DOC损失与城市化指数之间的长期强脱钩表明了“绿色发展”的有效性，但快速的产业结构调整政策（2017-2018年）引发了扩张性耦合和负脱钩状态，暂时逆转了环境收益。这一方法上的进步将环境影响评估从被动的项目评估转变为主动的可持续性监测，将湖泊碳储量建立为政策-环境相互作用的可转移预警指标。该框架使规划者能够在推进可持续发展目标11的同时，定量评估经济转型是否仍在地球碳限制范围内，为可持续城市发展提供适应性环境影响评估的范式转变。

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引用次数: 0

A framework for assessing commuting delay driven economic loss of urban waterlogging 城市内涝造成的通勤延误经济损失评估框架

IF 11.2 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108319

Yusen Peng , Hao Wang , Bin Chen

Urban waterlogging disasters (UWDs) cause commuting delays and substantial economic losses, but existing assessment methods overlook sectoral heterogeneity and supply chain ripple effects, limiting targeted disaster management. The study develops an integrated sector-spatial-supply chain coupled framework to quantify these losses, using Beijing as a case study. The framework integrates InfoWorks ICM for waterlogging simulation, a commuting model constructed based on mobile signaling and Point of Interest (POI) data, and a Ghosh-based input-output model for economic loss assessment. The results show that indirect economic losses driven by supply chain disruptions are 2.62 times direct losses at the 50-year rainfall return period, with Energy, Manufacturing, and Construction exhibiting the highest indirect loss multipliers. Direct losses concentrate in core areas such as Zhong Guan Cun Science Park and Financial Street due to the co-location effect of waterlogging vulnerability, dense commuters, and high economic activity. The framework establishes a quantitative chain linking UWDs, sector-specific commuting delays, and economic losses. It extends the Ghosh-based input-output (IO) model to labor mobility shocks, integrates POIs with employment sectors to refine economic loss assessment to the employment sector level, identifies inter-sectoral ripple effects and key vulnerable sectors from the supply chain perspective, thus strengthening the economic loss assessment for waterlogging disasters. It also provides a referable perspective for urban disaster management practices, incorporating POIs and commuting demands into urban disaster management, determines sector-specific risk prioritization based on the ripple effects of disaster economic losses, and supporting targeted regional disaster resilience strategies covering sponge infrastructure for high-waterlogging areas and POI layout optimization for high-risk areas.

城市内涝灾害造成通勤延误和重大经济损失，但现有的评估方法忽视了行业异质性和供应链连锁反应，限制了有针对性的灾害管理。该研究开发了一个综合的部门-空间-供应链耦合框架来量化这些损失，并以北京为案例研究。该框架集成了用于内涝模拟的InfoWorks ICM、基于移动信号和兴趣点（POI）数据构建的通勤模型，以及用于经济损失评估的基于ghosh的投入产出模型。结果表明，在50年降雨回归期，供应链中断造成的间接经济损失是直接损失的2.62倍，其中能源、制造业和建筑业的间接损失乘数最高。由于内涝易损性、通勤者密集、经济活动高的共地效应，直接损失集中在中关村科技园、金融街等核心区域。该框架建立了一条定量链，将uwd、特定部门的通勤延误和经济损失联系起来。将基于ghosh的投入产出（IO）模型扩展到劳动力流动冲击，将poi与就业部门整合，将经济损失评估细化到就业部门层面，从供应链角度识别部门间连锁反应和关键脆弱部门，从而加强内涝灾害的经济损失评估。它还为城市灾害管理实践提供了可参考的视角，将POI和通勤需求纳入城市灾害管理，根据灾害经济损失的连锁反应确定特定部门的风险优先级，并支持有针对性的区域抗灾战略，包括高内涝地区的海绵基础设施和高风险地区的POI布局优化。

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引用次数: 0