Ongoing desertification control efforts in China's arid and semi-arid regions (CASAR) have led to the most prominent “greening” worldwide. However, few studies have examined this greening process from the perspective of bare land change (BLC), and fewer have explored whether this positive greening process induces negative landscape ecological risk (LER). This study links BLC to LER by analyzing the interannual variations and structural transitions of BLC using time-series remote sensing data and developing a conflict-disturbance-function framework to assess LER. We further employed the contribution rate and interpretable machine learning models to explore the multidimensional impacts of BLC on LER and proposed an integrated zoning strategy based on BLC intensity and LER clustering patterns. Our results indicate that although both bare land extent and LER exhibited a rise–fall trajectory from 1990 to 2023 under large-scale ecological interventions, intense bare land turnover persisted. While such engineering-driven restoration may be ecologically promising in the long term, it also poses short-term risks of landscape fragmentation and elevated LER. Among all transitions, from bare land to grassland direction had the strongest impact on LER, exhibiting pronounced nonlinearity and spatial heterogeneity. Advancing ecological succession beyond grassland toward more mature ecosystems is essential for stabilizing BLC dynamics and mitigating LER. The zoning strategy combining the BLC and LER trends supports the dual goals of bare land reduction and ecological risk mitigation. Although certain regions exhibit clear improvements, desertification control in CASAR still faces substantial challenges. This study enriches the theoretical framework for BLC–LER interactions, providing a scientific basis for combating desertification in arid and semi-arid regions.
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