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Over two-thirds of the historical carbon emissions embodied in legacy capital contribute to China's growing consumption-based emissions responsibility 超过三分之二的历史碳排放体现在传统资本中,这是中国日益增长的以消费为基础的排放责任
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108268
Dongxiao Xu , Yan Zhang , Quanliang Ye , Yuli Shan , Jiahan Li
Substantial carbon emissions from fixed capital over its lifespan exacerbate the climate crisis and deepen carbon inequities. The effective assessment, attribution and management of capital-related carbon are crucial for long-term climate mitigation and sustainable development. Here, by constructing a global environmentally extended multiregional input–output model with endogenous fixed capital, we allocate global carbon emissions from past capital production to current and future consumption throughout the lifespan of capital to reassess China's carbon emissions responsibility and carbon transfer. This reallocation leads to a 36–47 % reduction in China's production-based and consumption-based carbon emissions responsibility and a 19–31 % decrease in net carbon transfer between 2000 and 2015, as China's capital consumption represented less than one-third of its capital formation. However, the carbon emissions responsibility and carbon transfers of China's service sectors—particularly real estate—increase, making these sectors new mitigation hotspots. This is due mainly to the high consumption of domestically produced buildings and machinery and imported equipment from Germany, Japan, and the United States. A critical challenge is that approximately two-thirds of legacy capital will persist and delay the peak of China's production-based and consumption-based emissions responsibility, locking in elevated emission burdens for future generations, even as China strengthens its regulatory targets (e.g., raising its carbon intensity reduction target from 65 % to 75 %). The use of a global cooperation mechanism and intelligent management throughout capital's lifespan, particularly with the extension of capital's service duration, will become a powerful lever for building a low-carbon, fair, and sustainable present and future.
固定资本在其生命周期内的大量碳排放加剧了气候危机,并加深了碳不平等。与资本有关的碳的有效评估、归因和管理对于长期减缓气候变化和可持续发展至关重要。本文通过构建一个具有内生固定资本的全球环境扩展的多区域投入产出模型,将全球碳排放从过去的资本生产分配到当前和未来的资本消费,从而重新评估中国的碳排放责任和碳转移。由于中国的资本消费占其资本形成的比重不到三分之一,这种再分配导致2000年至2015年间,中国基于生产和消费的碳排放责任减少了36 - 47%,净碳转移减少了19 - 31%。然而,中国服务业(尤其是房地产业)的碳排放责任和碳转移正在增加,使这些行业成为新的减排热点。这主要是由于国内生产的建筑和机械以及从德国、日本和美国进口的设备的高消费。一个关键的挑战是,即使中国加强了监管目标(例如,将碳强度降低目标从65%提高到75%),大约三分之二的遗留资本仍将持续存在,并推迟中国以生产和消费为基础的排放责任达到峰值的时间,从而为子孙后代锁定更高的排放负担。利用全球合作机制和智慧管理贯穿资本的整个生命周期,特别是随着资本使用年限的延长,将成为建设低碳、公平、可持续的现在和未来的有力杠杆。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring global sustainable development pathways based on the spatial spillover effects of ecological wellbeing performance 基于生态健康绩效的空间溢出效应探索全球可持续发展路径
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108266
Jing Shi , Dawei Zhang , Hui Xu , Huai Deng , Jiayi He , Xinpu Wang , Yang Wu , Shulin Yan
The intensifying international trade has promoted overall global economic growth and technological diffusion. However, it has also led to spatial mismatches between resource supply and demand, as well as imbalances in the distribution of environmental governance responsibilities within certain areas. These challenges significantly hinder the coordinated advancement of sustainable development worldwide. Therefore, this study proposed an Efficiency Deconstruction-Dominant Identification-Synergistic Gain assessment framework from an Ecological Wellbeing Performance (EWP) perspective which aimed to reveal the structural contradictions and spatial correlation characteristics confronting global sustainable development within the context of international trade. The results indicate that, between 2000 and 2020, global resource-wellbeing (ET) and resource-economy (E1) transformation efficiencies continued to improve, yet economy-wellbeing conversion (E2) slowed, declining by 16.9 %. International trade has amplified the positive spatial spillover of EWP particularly among neighboring countries and within specific international organizations and notably the most pronounced spillover occurred during the E2 phase (with a spatial lag coefficient as high as 2.679). More developed countries served as central hubs driving transnational EWP spillovers and under their influence, edge countries' ET transformation efficiency growth outpaced that of core nations by 1.26 times, demonstrating a pattern of peripheral dependency on core nations. Nevertheless, owing to structural development constraints, the E1 efficiency of edge countries remains only 82 % of that of achieved by core countries. Furthermore, international trade has indirectly exacerbated environmental governance differences and inequities which to some extent imposed disproportionate environmental costs upon developing countries within economic globalization. These pose challenges to coordinated efforts for the achievement of global sustainable development. Consequently, this study offers a conceptual basis for addressing structural imbalances in global EWP and advancing adaptive, cooperative strategies for sustainable development.
国际贸易的加剧促进了全球经济的全面增长和技术的扩散。然而,这也导致了资源供需的空间不匹配,以及某些地区环境治理责任分配的不平衡。这些挑战严重阻碍了全球可持续发展的协调推进。为此,本研究提出了一个基于生态福利绩效(EWP)视角下的效率解构-优势识别-协同收益评估框架,旨在揭示国际贸易背景下全球可持续发展面临的结构性矛盾和空间相关性特征。结果表明,2000 - 2020年,全球资源-福祉(ET)和资源-经济(E1)转换效率持续提高,但经济-福祉转换(E2)放缓,下降了16.9%。国际贸易放大了EWP的正向空间溢出效应,特别是在邻国之间和特定国际组织内部,其中E2阶段的溢出效应最为明显(空间滞后系数高达2.679)。较发达国家是推动跨国EWP溢出的中心枢纽,在其影响下,边缘国家的ET转换效率增长是核心国家的1.26倍,呈现出外围依赖核心国家的格局。然而,由于结构性发展的制约,边缘国家的E1效率仍然只有核心国家的82%。此外,国际贸易间接加剧了环境治理的差异和不公平,在一定程度上使发展中国家在经济全球化中付出了不成比例的环境代价。这些对实现全球可持续发展的协调努力构成挑战。因此,本研究为解决全球EWP的结构性失衡和推进可持续发展的适应性合作战略提供了概念基础。
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引用次数: 0
Heterogeneous climate impacts on spring phenology of China's wetlands 异质气候对中国湿地春季物候的影响
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-11-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108264
Kaidong Feng , Dehua Mao , Xiaofeng Xu , Haiguang Pu , Ming Wang , Duanrui Wang , Zihan Xing , Xiapeng Jiang , Ying Qin , Hengxing Xiang , Zongming Wang , Tim Van de Voorde
A comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of spring phenology (SOS) in China's wetlands and its climate-driven mechanisms remains unclear. Based on MOD13Q1 NDVI, ERA5-Land, and China_Wetlands datasets, this scientific question was systematically explored using linear regression, partial correlation, and Synergistic-Unique-Redundant Decomposition (SURD) methods. Results showed the multi-year average SOS of China's wetlands occurred on 144.2 ± 16.7 days and advanced by 4.4 ± 6.5 days per decade, with substantial variation across radiation-climate zones and wetland types. Notably, inland swamps within the high radiation with the temperate continental climate zone (HC_IS) exhibited a negative advancement rate of −0.5 ± 7.2 days per decade. SURD analysis provided a new perspective on the climatic response mechanisms of SOS, revealing the important, often-overlooked role of preseason accumulated radiation (Rad). Rad demonstrated a unique causality contribution on SOS changes, particularly in HC_IS, which showed a multi-preseason average increase in information (ΔI) of 0.16. Distinct mechanisms by which Rad affected the preseason accumulated precipitation were identified across radiation-climate zones, especially the unique causality in inland marshes within the extremely high radiation with the plateau mountain climate zone and HC_IS (ΔIs of 0.51 and 0.41). This study offers recommendations to mitigate potential ecological risks, supporting the conservation and sustainable management of China's wetlands.
中国湿地春季物候的时空异质性及其气候驱动机制尚不清楚。基于MOD13Q1 NDVI、ERA5-Land和China_Wetlands数据集,采用线性回归、偏相关和协同-唯一-冗余分解(SURD)方法对这一科学问题进行了系统探讨。结果表明:中国湿地多年平均SOS发生时间为144.2±16.7 d,每10 a提前4.4±6.5 d,辐射气候带和湿地类型间存在较大差异;高辐射温带大陆性气候带(HC_IS)的内陆沼泽表现出- 0.5±7.2 d / a的负推进率。SURD分析为SOS的气候响应机制提供了新的视角,揭示了季前累积辐射(Rad)的重要作用。Rad对SOS变化有独特的因果关系贡献,特别是在HC_IS中,它显示了多个季前赛的平均信息增加(ΔI) 0.16。在不同的辐射气候带中,Rad对季前累积降水的影响机制各不相同,特别是在极高辐射范围内的内陆沼泽与高原山地气候带和HC_IS之间存在独特的因果关系(ΔIs分别为0.51和0.41)。本研究为减轻潜在的生态风险提供了建议,为中国湿地的保护和可持续管理提供了支持。
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引用次数: 0
Advanced and sustainable approach for large-scale, high-quality recycling of predominant pavement waste and its life cycle environmental impact assessment 主要路面废弃物大规模、高质量回收的先进可持续方法及其全生命周期环境影响评价
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108263
Yu Song , Jianlin Feng , Fusong Wang , Shaopeng Wu , Haiqin Xu
Reclaimed asphalt pavement (RAP) constitutes the largest volume of solid waste generated in pavement engineering, yet faces persistent challenges in large-scale utilization for high-grade asphalt pavement surface layers. This study proposes an innovative approach for the design and implementation of high-performance pavements containing 100 % RAP. Comprehensive laboratory testing and in-situ monitoring were conducted to evaluate the durability of fully RAP-based asphalt pavement (FRAP) system in comparison to conventional recycled asphalt pavement (CRAP) system. A robust life cycle assessment (LCA) framework incorporating uncertainty analysis was established to quantify cradle-to-grave environmental impact of both systems. The results indicate that FRAP exhibits superior deformation resistance and fatigue performance, with a 99.1 % probability of achieving lower life-cycle carbon emissions compared to CRAP. Thus, FRAP is postulated as a viable alternative to CRAP. This study establishes a novel paradigm for sustainable pavement engineering, offering practical insights for advancing circular resource utilization in transportation infrastructure.
再生沥青路面(RAP)是路面工程中产生的固体废物量最大的一种,但在高档沥青路面面层的大规模利用方面一直面临挑战。本研究提出了一种创新的方法来设计和实施含有100% RAP的高性能路面。通过综合实验室测试和现场监测,对全rap基沥青路面(FRAP)体系与常规再生沥青路面(CRAP)体系的耐久性进行了评价。建立了一个包含不确定性分析的鲁棒生命周期评估(LCA)框架,以量化这两个系统从摇篮到坟墓的环境影响。结果表明,与CRAP相比,FRAP具有更好的抗变形性能和疲劳性能,实现更低生命周期碳排放的概率为99.1%。因此,FRAP被认为是CRAP的可行替代方案。本研究建立了可持续路面工程的新范例,为推进交通基础设施循环资源利用提供了实践见解。
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引用次数: 0
Are we reusing heritage safely? Stakeholder perceptions and safety priorities in the adaptive reuse of Chinese architectural heritage 我们是否安全地重复使用遗产?中国建筑遗产适应性再利用中的利益相关者观念和安全优先事项
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108257
Zihao Cao , Yongchun Mao , Xing Zhang , Linqi Huang , Muhizam Mustafa , Mohd Isa Mohd Hafizal
As more architectural heritage sites are repurposed to meet modern functional needs, safety—though increasingly recognized as vital to sustainable heritage management—often remains a secondary concern. This study proposes a stakeholder-centred framework to identify and assess key safety indicators in repurposed heritage buildings, using the UNESCO-listed villages of Xidi and Hongcun in China as case studies. An exploratory mixed methods was employed. In the first phase, template analysis and consensus-based focus group sessions were used to identify, refine, and prioritize safety indicators across five dimensions: Structural Integrity, Fire Protection, Usability, Environmental Preparedness, And Maintenance Systems. In the second phase, a survey of 426 stakeholders measured satisfaction levels with these indicators and identified areas for future improvement. The findings reveal a gap between perceived importance and actual performance, particularly in emergency preparedness, fire protection equipment, and internal infrastructure. This study contributes to heritage risk research by applying Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) to adaptive reuse and empirically validating a stakeholder-driven safety framework using Importance–Performance Analysis (IPA). It offers a diagnostic tool that connects cognitive risk appraisal with practical governance.
随着越来越多的建筑遗产遗址被重新利用以满足现代功能需求,安全——尽管越来越多的人认识到对可持续遗产管理至关重要——往往仍然是次要的问题。本研究提出了一个以利益相关者为中心的框架来识别和评估重新利用的遗产建筑的关键安全指标,并以联合国教科文组织列入名录的中国西递村和宏村村作为案例研究。采用探索性混合方法。在第一阶段,使用模板分析和基于共识的焦点小组会议来确定、完善和优先考虑五个维度的安全指标:结构完整性、防火性、可用性、环境准备和维护系统。在第二阶段,对426名利益相关者的调查衡量了这些指标的满意度,并确定了未来需要改进的领域。调查结果显示,人们对重要性的认识与实际表现之间存在差距,特别是在应急准备、消防设备和内部基础设施方面。本研究通过将保护动机理论(PMT)应用于适应性再利用,并利用重要性-绩效分析(IPA)对利益相关者驱动的安全框架进行实证验证,为遗产风险研究做出贡献。它提供了一种诊断工具,将认知风险评估与实际治理联系起来。
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引用次数: 0
Simulation and prediction of heavy metal migration using a Monte Carlo-optimized fugacity model in a Yangtze River Delta Industrial Park 基于蒙特卡罗优化逸度模型的长三角工业园区重金属迁移模拟与预测
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108262
Xin Liu , Dong Zhao , Guo Liang , Zihan Bi , Xuya Peng , Yilu Gu , Xiaofeng Gao
This study investigates the migration and long-term ecological risks of seven heavy metals (HMs) in an industrial park of the Yangtze River Delta using a Monte Carlo-optimized Level IV fugacity model. By integrating regional parameters and emission inventories, the model quantified fluxes among air–water–soil–sediment compartments, and its performance was validated using Theil's inequality coefficient. Simulated concentrations in soil and sediment closely matched measurements, while aqueous deviations were mainly driven by environmental dynamics. Pb and Hg dominated air–soil exchange; Cr and Ni contributed substantially to soil–water migration; Hg showed the lowest mobility due to organic matter binding. Sediments acted as the ultimate sink, retained approximately 99 % of aqueous fluxes, but released nearly 50 % through resuspension, constituting potential secondary pollution pathways. Risk assessment identified Cd and Hg as the primary threats, with sediment accumulation rates one to three orders of magnitude higher than in soil. Projections suggest sediment Cd will reach high risk by 2025 and extremely high risk by 2036, while soil Hg will reach high risk by 2071. A 20 % emission reduction significantly delayed the projected increase in risk levels. The findings highlight sediments as long-term pollution reservoirs and recommend priority control of Cd and Hg, supported by dynamic risk early-warning strategies.
采用蒙特卡罗优化的IV级逸度模型,研究了长三角某工业园区7种重金属的迁移及其长期生态风险。通过整合区域参数和排放清单,该模型量化了空气-水-土-沙各区间的通量,并利用泰尔不平等系数对模型的性能进行了验证。土壤和沉积物中的模拟浓度与测量值密切匹配,而水中的偏差主要由环境动力学驱动。铅和汞主导空气-土壤交换;Cr和Ni对土壤-水迁移有显著贡献;汞的迁移率因有机质结合而最低。沉积物作为最终汇,保留了约99%的水通量,但通过再悬浮释放了近50%,构成潜在的二次污染途径。风险评估确定Cd和Hg是主要威胁,沉积物积累速率比土壤高一到三个数量级。预测显示,到2025年,沉积物镉将达到高风险,到2036年将达到极高风险,而土壤汞将在2071年达到高风险。减少20%的排放量大大推迟了预计的风险水平上升。研究结果强调沉积物是长期污染的储存库,建议优先控制Cd和Hg,并辅以动态风险预警策略。
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引用次数: 0
Knowledge graph embeddings for extrapolation life cycle inventory data: A novel approach to bridge data gaps in environmental impact assessment 外推生命周期清单数据的知识图嵌入:一种弥合环境影响评估数据缺口的新方法
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108261
Mohamed Saad , Yingzhong Zhang , Jia Jia , Mohamed Magdy , Feng Gong
The incompleteness and scarcity of life cycle inventory (LCI) data constitute a critical challenge for life cycle assessment (LCA), limiting database coverage for a wide range of current activities and emerging technologies. This paper proposes a novel computational framework that leverages statistical relational learning for knowledge graphs to extrapolate LCI data for machining activities when data are incomplete or don't exist within LCI databases. First, an ontology-based knowledge graph for LCI data (LCIKG) of machining activities in the Ecoinvent database is developed, which provides an explicit semantic representation of LCI data concepts and interrelations. Second, the LCIKG is embedded into a real-valued vector space using a tensor factorization-based relational learning model, which captures the latent semantic similarity of entities and relations in LCIKG. Missing data are modeled as incomplete triples, and a score vector was computed for each to predict the missing flow type or value. Finally, the model's efficacy was demonstrated through two validation pathways: accurately estimating intentionally omitted data within the Ecoinvent database and successfully extrapolating data for a new machining activity from an external database. Quantitative evaluation yields a high predictive accuracy, with a mean squared error (MSE) of 5.30 and a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 2.36 %. This research establishes a new, knowledge-driven paradigm for bridging LCI data gaps, offering a robust and scalable solution to enhance data completeness and reliability in LCA.
生命周期清单(LCI)数据的不完整性和稀缺性对生命周期评估(LCA)构成了重大挑战,限制了数据库对当前活动和新兴技术的广泛覆盖。本文提出了一种新的计算框架,该框架利用知识图的统计关系学习,在LCI数据库中数据不完整或不存在时推断加工活动的LCI数据。首先,开发了Ecoinvent数据库中加工活动LCI数据的基于本体的知识图谱(LCIKG),为LCI数据概念和相互关系提供了明确的语义表示。其次,使用基于张量分解的关系学习模型将LCIKG嵌入到实值向量空间中,该模型捕获LCIKG中实体和关系的潜在语义相似性。缺失的数据被建模为不完整的三元组,并为每个三元组计算一个分数向量来预测缺失的流类型或值。最后,通过两种验证途径证明了该模型的有效性:准确估计Ecoinvent数据库中有意忽略的数据,并成功地从外部数据库中推断出新的加工活动的数据。定量评价获得了较高的预测精度,均方误差(MSE)为5.30,平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)为2.36%。本研究为弥合LCI数据差距建立了一个新的、知识驱动的范例,提供了一个强大的、可扩展的解决方案,以增强LCA中的数据完整性和可靠性。
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引用次数: 0
Transitioning to smart circular construction: A conceptual framework for circular economy implementation through Construction 4.0 technologies 向智能循环建筑过渡:通过建筑4.0技术实现循环经济的概念框架
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-11-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108260
Oluwapelumi Abiodun , Mohamed Abadi , Obuks Ejohwomu , Patrick Manu
The integration of Construction 4.0 technologies, such as digital technologies, with circular economy (CE) concepts, offers significant potential to advance smart circular construction (SCC). Yet, the literature lacks a cohesive understanding of the measurable, value-driven outcomes, termed smart circular values, that can guide SCC's systemic adoption. This study addresses this gap by developing a conceptual framework for strategically deploying Construction 4.0 technologies to enhance material circularity in the construction sector, grounded in the human-centric, resilient, and sustainable principles of Industry 5.0. A systematic literature review of 96 peer-reviewed articles was conducted to map interdependencies between Construction 4.0 technologies and CE concepts. Using a novel operationalisation technique, the direct clustering algorithm, technologies were grouped according to their support for CE concepts, revealing five distinct smart circular values: smart energy management, smart construction methods, smart resource optimisation, smart tracking and tracing, and smart waste management. These values form the foundation for defining SCC and reveal distinct, technology-enabled pathways for its realisation. Potential adverse impacts of adopting Construction 4.0 technologies were also identified to guide implementation strategies and inform assessments of the net benefits of SCC adoption. Overall, the framework outlines key adoption priorities, highlights pressing challenges, and emphasises the importance of organisation-level assessments to accelerate progress toward a more circular built environment.
建筑4.0技术(如数字技术)与循环经济(CE)概念的整合,为推进智能循环建筑(SCC)提供了巨大的潜力。然而,文献缺乏对可测量的、价值驱动的结果(称为智能循环价值)的有凝聚力的理解,这可以指导SCC的系统采用。本研究以工业5.0的以人为本、弹性和可持续原则为基础,通过开发一个概念性框架,战略性地部署建筑4.0技术,以增强建筑部门的材料循环性,从而解决了这一差距。对96篇同行评议文章进行了系统的文献综述,以绘制建筑4.0技术与CE概念之间的相互依赖关系。使用一种新的操作技术,直接聚类算法,技术根据其对CE概念的支持进行分组,揭示了五个不同的智能循环价值:智能能源管理,智能建筑方法,智能资源优化,智能跟踪和跟踪以及智能废物管理。这些价值观构成了定义SCC的基础,并揭示了实现SCC的独特、技术支持的途径。还确定了采用建筑4.0技术的潜在不利影响,以指导实施策略,并为采用SCC的净效益评估提供信息。总体而言,该框架概述了关键的采用优先事项,突出了紧迫的挑战,并强调了组织层面评估的重要性,以加速迈向更循环的建筑环境。
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引用次数: 0
Glacier service value changes and adaptive management under cryospheric retreat in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108259
Xianglong Gao , Chengpeng Lu , Qi Feng , Wei Liu , Jutao Zhang
Glaciers of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) are vital ecological and economic assets, playing a crucial role in regional ecosystems and socio-economic development. As global warming accelerates cryospheric retreat, it becomes increasingly important to accurately quantify changes in glacier ecosystem services and develop adaptive management strategies. This study focuses on glaciers in the QTP, utilizing data from the First (1978–2002) and Second (2004–2011) Chinese Glacier Inventories, multi-source remote sensing imagery, and socio-economic statistical yearbooks. Employing economic valuation methods such as shadow pricing and market valuation, this study comprehensively quantifies glacier service values in terms of freshwater supply, hydropower generation, climate regulation, runoff regulation, habitat support, aesthetic and recreational value, and scientific research. Additionally, glacier vulnerability across the different basins of the QTP is analyzed through dynamic indicators. The results indicate that the total glacier ecosystem service value on the QTP amounts to approximately 1.34 trillion CNY, with regulatory services accounting for 95.04 %. Compared to the First Glacier Inventory, service values decreased by 22.07 % in the Second Inventory. Service values are higher in the south and west, with the Brahmaputra and Tarim Basins contributing 27.45 % and 26.56 %, respectively. However, rising temperatures and reduced precipitation increase glacier vulnerability, particularly in high-value regions like the Indus Basin, where vulnerability is also influenced by population growth. The findings highlight the urgency of implementing adaptive management strategies, such as glacier disaster risk warning, glacier resource utilization, social participation, and industrial development, to mitigate ecological and economic risks and achieve sustainable regional development. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of glacier service values and vulnerabilities on the QTP, offering a holistic understanding of the impacts of glacier retreat in the region and informing more effective decision-making and management strategies.
随着全球变暖加速冰冻圈退缩,准确量化冰川生态系统服务变化和制定适应性管理策略变得越来越重要。本研究利用第一期(1978-2002)和第二期(2004-2011)中国冰川清查、多源遥感影像和社会经济统计年鉴的数据,以QTP中的冰川为研究对象。本研究采用影子定价和市场评估等经济评估方法,从淡水供应、水力发电、气候调节、径流调节、栖息地支持、审美和娱乐价值以及科学研究等方面对冰川服务价值进行了综合量化。此外,通过动态指标分析了青藏高原不同流域的冰川脆弱性。结果表明:青藏高原冰川生态系统服务价值约为1.34万亿元,其中调节服务价值占95.04%。与第一次冰川清查相比,第二次冰川清查的服务价值下降了22.07%。服务价值在南部和西部较高,雅鲁藏布江盆地和塔里木盆地贡献分别为27.45%和26.56%。然而,气温上升和降水减少增加了冰川的脆弱性,特别是在像印度河流域这样的高价值地区,那里的脆弱性也受到人口增长的影响。研究结果强调了实施冰川灾害风险预警、冰川资源利用、社会参与和产业发展等适应性管理策略以减轻生态和经济风险,实现区域可持续发展的紧迫性。本研究对QTP的冰川服务价值和脆弱性进行了综合评估,为全面了解该地区冰川退缩的影响提供了依据,并为更有效的决策和管理策略提供了依据。
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引用次数: 0
A decision-making model for more sustainable municipal solid waste management 更可持续的城市固体废物管理决策模型
IF 11.2 1区 社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108258
Arno P. Clasen, Feni Agostinho, Cecília M.V.B. Almeida, Biagio F. Giannetti
The increasing volume of municipal solid waste (MSW) globally requires sustainable management strategies, especially in resource-constrained regions where landfilling remains predominant due to economic limitations. This study proposes a decision-support model focused on sustainability to guide the choice of technological routes for MSW management, comparing a conventional sanitary landfill with an integrated and innovative biorefinery (2IB), positioned at the top of the waste management hierarchy. The evaluation includes a diagnosis phase, which addressed only the treatment plants, and a simulation phase, which incorporated transportation distances and variations in MSW composition. Both phases were based on the five-sector sustainability model (5SEnSU), here applied for the first time to MSW management systems. Results focused on treatment showed that 2IB performs approximately 15 times better in terms of the sustainability synthetic indicator of the system (SSIS: 0.53) compared to sanitary landfill (SSIS: 8.12). Results from simulations revealed that 2IB remains the more sustainable option for additional transport distances up to 11,000 km/day and for any combination of organic and inorganic waste fraction. The study concludes that the adoption of 2IB should be prioritized in MSW public policies, particularly through intermunicipal consortia, which can facilitate implementation. This study contributes scientifically by assessing, for the first time using the 5SEnSU, the sustainability of an innovative biorefinery for MSW. Practically, it delivers a replicable and adaptable model to help local governments make informed, sustainability-based decisions. It further offers clear operational threshold, on transport distance and waste composition, that can be readily applied in real-world planning and policy.
全球城市固体废物(MSW)的数量不断增加,需要可持续的管理战略,特别是在资源有限的地区,由于经济限制,垃圾填埋仍然占主导地位。本研究提出了一个以可持续性为重点的决策支持模型,以指导城市生活垃圾管理技术路线的选择,并将传统的卫生填埋场与位于废物管理层级顶端的综合创新生物精炼厂(2IB)进行了比较。评估包括诊断阶段(仅针对处理厂)和模拟阶段(考虑运输距离和城市生活垃圾组成的变化)。这两个阶段均以五界别可持续发展模式为基础,并首次应用于都市固体废物管理系统。处理方面的结果表明,与卫生填埋场(SSIS: 8.12)相比,2IB在系统可持续性综合指标(SSIS: 0.53)方面的表现约为15倍。模拟结果显示,对于每天11,000公里的额外运输距离以及任何有机和无机废物部分的组合,2IB仍然是更可持续的选择。该研究的结论是,在城市固体废物公共政策中应优先采用2IB,特别是通过城市间的联盟,这可以促进实施。本研究通过首次使用5SEnSU评估创新型城市生活垃圾生物炼制的可持续性,为科学做出了贡献。实际上,它提供了一个可复制和适应性强的模式,帮助地方政府做出明智的、基于可持续性的决策。它还提供了关于运输距离和废物组成的明确操作门槛,可以很容易地应用于实际的规划和政策。
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Environmental Impact Assessment Review
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