Environmental Impact Assessment Review最新文献_第2页

Understanding the village-scale expansion of rural settlements in China from a topographic perspective 从地形学角度看中国乡村聚落的村级扩张

IF 11.2 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2026.108344

Xiangying Kong , Shengquan Lu , Baoqing Hu , Yurou Liang , Jiaxin Li

Topography critically shapes the distribution of Rural Settlements (RS). However, previous studies have often neglected the systematic role of topographic gradients, typically focusing on macro scales, which obscures the nuanced patterns and underlying mechanisms at the village level. To address this, we developed a two-dimensional elevation-slope framework to reconstruct the 40-year evolution of China's RS at the administrative village scale. We then quantified its morphological changes at the village level and employed a Geographically Weighted Machine Learning (GWML) framework, which integrates geographically weighted principles with machine learning capabilities to capture the spatial heterogeneity and non-linear effects of the driving factors. Our findings reveal a highly uneven RS distribution. By 2020, 78.49% of the settlement area was concentrated in Low elevation-Low slope (L-L) regions, comprising just 21.74% of China's landmass. Over the past four decades, expansion has trended towards higher elevations and steeper slopes, though patterns and land sources varied significantly by terrain. Plains expansion was dominated by edge-expansion onto Cultivated Land, whereas in topographically complex regions, it was more dispersed with diverse sources. Furthermore, settlement density in L-L villages was over a hundredfold greater than in High elevation-High slope (HH) villages. The optimal Geographically Weighted Random Forest (GWRF) model shows that expansion in plains is driven by land use intensity and village scale, while in complex terrains, it is governed by ecological constraints or economic density. This study systematically dissects the dynamic patterns and morphological differentiation of rural settlements under topographic constraints, offering scientific insights for rural revitalisation and regional planning.

地形对农村聚落（RS）的分布具有决定性的影响。然而，以往的研究往往忽视了地形梯度的系统作用，通常集中在宏观尺度上，这掩盖了村庄层面的细微模式和潜在机制。为了解决这个问题，我们开发了一个二维高程-坡度框架来重建中国行政村尺度上RS的40年演变。然后，我们量化了其在村庄层面的形态变化，并采用地理加权机器学习（GWML）框架，该框架将地理加权原理与机器学习能力相结合，以捕捉驱动因素的空间异质性和非线性效应。我们的发现揭示了RS的高度不均匀分布。到2020年，78.49%的聚落面积集中在低海拔低坡度地区，仅占中国陆地面积的21.74%。在过去的40年里，尽管地形和土地来源有很大的不同，但扩张的趋势是向更高的海拔和更陡的斜坡发展。平原扩张以向耕地边缘扩张为主，而在地形复杂的地区，平原扩张更为分散，来源多样。此外，L-L村的聚落密度是高海拔-高坡度（HH）村的100倍以上。最优地理加权随机森林（GWRF）模型表明，平原地区的扩张受土地利用强度和村庄规模驱动，而复杂地形地区的扩张受生态约束或经济密度控制。本研究系统剖析了地形约束下乡村聚落的动态格局和形态分化，为乡村振兴和区域规划提供科学的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Artificial intelligence applications in urban extreme heat management: A systematic review of forecasting, monitoring, mitigation and decision support 人工智能在城市极端高温管理中的应用：预测、监测、缓解和决策支持的系统综述

IF 11.2 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2026.108363

Jin Rui , Zahratu Shabrina , Wenjing Gong

Against the backdrop of global warming and rapid urbanization, urban extreme heat is becoming increasingly severe, with profound impacts on public health, infrastructure, and social equity. Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) offer new opportunities to address this challenge. This systematic review examines 102 publications on AI applications in urban extreme heat governance. The findings reveal a “Northern bias,” with most studies in the United States, China, and Europe, while gaps exist in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. Supervised learning dominates current approaches. AI demonstrates effectiveness across four dimensions of governance. In prediction and early warning, random forests and XGBoost are suitable for short-term forecasting, CNNs and LSTMs excel at spatiotemporal patterns, and hybrid models improve accuracy. In monitoring and assessment, AI overcomes spatiotemporal limits of remote sensing, shifting from static heat mapping to dynamic heat–population risk identification, with social media capturing residents' perceptions. In mitigation and adaptation, AI identifies thresholds of green–blue infrastructure, supports urban form regulation, and expands climate-adaptive design through generative AI. In scenario simulation and decision support, AI-powered digital twins and interactive platforms integrate planning and operations, fostering expert–public collaboration. Yet applications remain constrained by trade-offs between accuracy and efficiency, limited data integration, and insufficient causal inference, particularly in modeling the heat risk chain as a multi-stage system. Future work should build data frameworks integrating physical and social information and advance paradigm shifts toward causal inference and multi-objective optimization. A systematic AI framework can enable closed-loop governance from risk identification to intelligent response.

在全球变暖和快速城市化的背景下，城市极端高温日益严重，对公共卫生、基础设施和社会公平产生了深刻影响。人工智能（AI）的进步为应对这一挑战提供了新的机遇。本系统综述审查了102篇关于人工智能在城市极端高温治理中的应用的出版物。研究结果揭示了一种“北方偏见”，大多数研究在美国、中国和欧洲进行，而撒哈拉以南非洲和拉丁美洲则存在差距。监督学习主导了当前的学习方法。人工智能在治理的四个维度上展示了有效性。在预测预警方面，随机森林和XGBoost适合短期预测，cnn和LSTMs擅长时空模式，混合模型提高了预测精度。在监测和评估方面，人工智能克服了遥感的时空限制，从静态热制图转向动态热人口风险识别，并通过社交媒体捕捉居民的感知。在减缓和适应方面，人工智能确定了绿蓝基础设施的阈值，支持城市形态调节，并通过生成式人工智能扩展了气候适应性设计。在场景模拟和决策支持方面，人工智能驱动的数字孪生和互动平台将规划和运营相结合，促进专家和公众的协作。然而，应用仍然受到准确性和效率之间的权衡、有限的数据集成和不充分的因果推理的限制，特别是在将热风险链建模为多阶段系统方面。未来的工作应该建立整合物理和社会信息的数据框架，并推进范式向因果推理和多目标优化的转变。系统的人工智能框架可以实现从风险识别到智能响应的闭环治理。

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引用次数: 0

Research on multi-dimensional decision-making method of plastic waste management 塑料废弃物管理多维决策方法研究

IF 11.2 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2026.108360

Shujie Zhao , Lile Cai , Quanyin Tan , Jinhui Li , Yufei Qin

In recent years, plastic waste has continued to increase, causing long-term damage to the environment. To reduce direct environmental contamination by plastics disposal processes, it is crucial to quantitatively evaluate plastic waste management methods from environmental, economic, and risk perspectives for optimal process selection. However, standard life cycle assessments (LCA) are unable to address these aspects from both producer and market viewpoints. This study examines four waste management methods of plastic waste—pyrolysis, mechanical recycling, landfilling, and incineration—employing a multi-objective evaluation framework integrating LCA, economic analysis, and risk assessment. Mechanical recycling emerged as the best option, having minimal environmental impact (human health: -16.02E-11, ecosystems: -13.18E−10, and resource scarcity: -31.80E-12), suitable profitability (24.55%), low pollution risk (1.50), and overall optimal benefits. Simultaneously, sensitivity analysis showed that electricity (−12.98 to 11.19%) had the greatest impact on the global warming potential of mechanical recycling technologies. This study evaluation of the environmental impacts, economics, and risk levels of different plastic waste management methods as a whole provides theoretical support for practical waste management systems. The results serve as a reference value for the selection and optimization of different plastic waste management methods.

近年来，塑料垃圾持续增加，对环境造成长期损害。为了减少塑料处理过程对环境的直接污染，从环境、经济和风险的角度定量评估塑料废物管理方法以进行最佳工艺选择是至关重要的。然而，标准生命周期评估（LCA）无法从生产者和市场的角度解决这些问题。本研究采用LCA、经济分析和风险评估相结合的多目标评价框架，考察了塑料垃圾的热解、机械回收、填埋和焚烧四种废弃物管理方法。机械回收被认为是最佳选择，其环境影响最小（人类健康：-16.02E-11，生态系统：-13.18E - 10，资源稀稀性：-31.80E-12），适宜的盈利能力（24.55%），低污染风险（1.50），整体效益最优。同时，敏感性分析表明，电力（−12.98 ~ 11.19%）对机械回收技术的全球变暖潜势影响最大。本研究从整体上评价了不同塑料废物管理方法的环境影响、经济效益和风险水平，为实际的废物管理系统提供了理论支持。研究结果对不同塑料废弃物管理方式的选择和优化具有参考价值。

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引用次数: 0

Integrating hybrid life cycle assessment to quantify carbon footprint in mariculture: Overcoming truncation errors and unveiling macroeconomic drivers 整合混合生命周期评估以量化海水养殖中的碳足迹：克服截断误差并揭示宏观经济驱动因素

IF 11.2 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2026.108359

Ting Jiang , Kangni Wu , Yuanchao Hu , Guobao Song , Weiwei Sun , Gengyuan Liu , Zhaoyuan Yu , Ling Cao , Shaobin Li

Marine aquaculture (mariculture) holds significant potential for reducing the carbon footprint (CF) compared to land-based meat production systems. However, conventional process-based life cycle assessment (P-LCA) methods tend to underestimate emissions due to truncation errors stemming from overlooked macroeconomic activities. Although integrated hybrid life cycle assessment (IH-LCA) has been introduced to mitigate truncation errors, its application in mariculture industry remains limited, largely because of the coarse granularity of the fishery sector in existing input-output models. In addition, CF of mariculture products are typically evaluated at the species level, without considering the differences between management practices. Here, an IH-LCA method with finer granularity was first developed by disaggregating products of mariculture into four categories (e.g., fish, shrimp, shellfish, and macroalgae) from the fishery sector in an input-output model. Then the CF of mariculture products was quantified by integrating process-based inventory data from 19 distinct management practices in China. Compared to P-LCA, IH-LCA method enhances estimation coverage of CF by 9.3%, 5.8%, 28.8%, and 24.7% on average for fish, shrimp, shellfish, and macroalgae, respectively. Further analysis reveals that macroeconomic sectors account for 5.7–46.5% of total CF, with major contributors from handling and warehousing services (33.84%), agricultural technical services (26.39%), and construction-related services (11.01%). For advancing economy-wide low-carbon transitions within the mariculture industry, stakeholders are suggested to look beyond process-based emissions and incorporate impacts from relevant macroeconomic sectors.

与陆地肉类生产系统相比，海洋水产养殖在减少碳足迹（CF）方面具有巨大潜力。然而，传统的基于过程的生命周期评估（P-LCA）方法往往低估了排放量，这是由于被忽视的宏观经济活动造成的截断误差。尽管已经引入了综合混合生命周期评估（IH-LCA）来减轻截断误差，但其在海水养殖业中的应用仍然有限，这主要是因为现有投入产出模型中渔业部门的粒度较粗。此外，海水养殖产品的CF通常在物种水平上进行评估，而不考虑管理做法之间的差异。在这里，首先开发了一种粒度更细的IH-LCA方法，通过在投入产出模型中将渔业部门的海水养殖产品分解为四类（例如，鱼、虾、贝类和大型藻类）。然后，通过整合中国19种不同管理方式的基于过程的库存数据，对海水养殖产品的CF进行量化。与P-LCA方法相比，IH-LCA方法对鱼、虾、贝类和大型藻类的CF估算覆盖率平均分别提高了9.3%、5.8%、28.8%和24.7%。进一步分析显示，宏观经济部门占总CF的5.7-46.5%，主要来自装卸和仓储服务（33.84%）、农业技术服务（26.39%）和建筑相关服务（11.01%）。为了在海水养殖业内推进整个经济的低碳转型，建议利益相关者超越基于过程的排放，并纳入相关宏观经济部门的影响。

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引用次数: 0

Trade-off dynamics underpin distance thresholds in ecosystem service multifunctionality along alpine transportation corridors 权衡动态支持高山运输走廊生态系统服务多功能的距离阈值

IF 11.2 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2026.108382

Siqi Yang , Qili Li , Yujian Gao , Jie Liu , Xiaowen Yang

Transportation infrastructure profoundly alters ecosystem structure and function in ecologically vulnerable regions, potentially triggering trade-offs among individual ecosystem services. More importantly, the impacts of these trade-offs on ecosystem service multifunctionality (ESM) remain poorly understood. This study developed a novel quantitative framework that incorporates trade-off dynamics into integrated multifunctionality assessment. Applying this framework to the Qinghai-Tibet highway and railway corridors from 2000 to 2020, we examined the spatiotemporal dynamics and spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem service trade-offs and ESM, focusing on carbon sequestration (CS), habitat quality (HQ), and soil retention (SR). The key findings included: 1) CS-SR synergies strengthened over time, whereas CS-HQ synergies weakened after railway construction. 2) ESM exhibited unimodal patterns with distance, reaching maximum values at approximately 4000 m for railway and 6000 m for highway, indicating a more localized impact from railway. As a regulatory factor in ESM calculation, trade-off intensity was higher within approximately 4000 m of railway but shifted to highway beyond this distance. 3) The dominant drivers varied across permafrost zones and transportation corridors, with vegetation and climate factors playing key roles; transportation distance had a stronger positive effect on highway ESM (17.09%) than on the railway in island permafrost areas; the effects of precipitation and temperature shifted in direction with increasing permafrost severity; and in continuous permafrost, significant drivers declined and vegetation index became the primary control (>85%). These findings highlight the role of trade-off based multifunctionality assessment in guiding adaptive management of alpine transportation systems.

交通基础设施深刻地改变了生态脆弱地区的生态系统结构和功能，潜在地引发了各个生态系统服务之间的权衡。更重要的是，这些权衡对生态系统服务多功能（ESM）的影响仍然知之甚少。本研究开发了一种新的定量框架，将权衡动力学纳入综合多功能评估。以2000 - 2020年青藏公路和铁路廊道为研究对象，研究了生态系统服务权衡和ESM的时空动态和空间异质性，重点研究了碳固存（CS）、栖息地质量（HQ）和土壤保持（SR）。主要发现包括：1)随着时间的推移，CS-SR协同效应增强，而CS-HQ协同效应在铁路建设后减弱。2) ESM随距离的变化呈现单峰模式，铁路和公路分别在4000 m和6000 m处达到最大值，表明铁路对ESM的影响更局部。作为ESM计算中的调节因子，在铁路约4000 m范围内，权衡强度较高，而在此范围外，权衡强度向公路转移。(3)多年冻土带和运输通道的主导驱动因素存在差异，植被和气候因子发挥关键作用；在海岛多年冻土区，交通距离对公路ESM的正向影响（17.09%）大于铁路；随着多年冻土严重程度的增加，降水和温度的影响呈方向性变化；在连续多年冻土区，显著驱动因子下降，植被指数成为主要控制因子（85%）。这些发现强调了基于权衡的多功能评估在指导高山运输系统适应性管理中的作用。

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引用次数: 0

Advancing cumulative impact assessment frameworks: The role of indicators and their weighting in shaping environmental decision-making 推进累积影响评估框架：指标及其权重在形成环境决策中的作用

IF 11.2 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2026.108385

Nefeli Maria Bompoti

The study investigates multiple frameworks for evaluating cumulative impacts, focusing on the selection of indicators and their respective weighting in air quality-related decision-making processes while integrating climate change considerations. The main innovation of this study is the comparative analysis of cumulative impact assessment frameworks including context- and place-specific variables using quantitative metrics. The study assesses how methodological choices can influence the prioritization of communities within environmental justice policies and regulatory decision-making. Multiple frameworks were assessed, each tailored to the specific objectives of the decision-making process and the geographical context, and compared to a baseline model with minimal parameters. The context-specific model yielded results similar to the baseline but emphasized air quality parameters more heavily and increased average scores. In contrast, place-specific and hybrid models showed greater variance, influenced by factors such as proximity to coastal areas, flood risk, and health sensitivity. Statistical analysis revealed significant differences between the models with frameworks incorporating more indicators exhibiting greater variability and wider score distributions. The models also prioritized different communities at the 80th and 90th percentiles, highlighting that methodological choices within each framework can substantially influence which communities are being prioritized. The analysis also revealed high intercorrelation among certain parameters, reflecting the need for further exploration of how parameter selection influences their interrelationships. Sensitivity analysis on environmental weighting demonstrated that even when environmental burdens were weighed equally, they could not fully account for the cumulative impact of other variables, except in certain areas. Health sensitivity and socioeconomic factors had a more substantial effect when their weight was varied. The study concludes that while all frameworks capture the areas with the highest cumulative impacts, their choice has significant implications. Integration of lived experiences and community insights, alongside further research, is crucial for accurately capturing cumulative impacts and enhancing decision-making.

该研究调查了评估累积影响的多种框架，重点是指标的选择及其在空气质量相关决策过程中的各自权重，同时综合考虑气候变化因素。本研究的主要创新是对累积影响评估框架进行比较分析，其中包括使用定量指标的特定环境和特定地点变量。该研究评估了方法选择如何在环境正义政策和监管决策中影响社区的优先次序。评估了多个框架，每个框架都针对决策过程的具体目标和地理环境进行了调整，并与具有最小参数的基线模型进行了比较。特定环境模型的结果与基线相似，但更强调空气质量参数，并提高了平均得分。相比之下，地方特定模型和混合模型显示出更大的差异，受到诸如靠近沿海地区、洪水风险和健康敏感性等因素的影响。统计分析显示，纳入更多指标的框架模型之间存在显著差异，表现出更大的可变性和更广泛的得分分布。这些模型还在第80和第90个百分位数上对不同社区进行了优先排序，强调每个框架内的方法选择可以对优先排序的社区产生重大影响。分析还揭示了某些参数之间的高度相关性，这反映出需要进一步探索参数选择如何影响它们的相互关系。对环境加权的敏感性分析表明，即使环境负担得到平等的权衡，也不能充分说明除某些地区外其他变量的累积影响。当健康敏感性和社会经济因素的权重发生变化时，其影响更为显著。该研究的结论是，虽然所有框架都捕捉到了累积影响最大的领域，但它们的选择具有重要意义。整合生活经验和社区见解，以及进一步的研究，对于准确捕捉累积影响和加强决策至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

The spillovers of ESG performance on peers' debt financing costs: evidence from China ESG绩效对同行债务融资成本的溢出效应：来自中国的证据

IF 11.2 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2026.108390

Yao Wang , Ziyao Zhang , Zhili Du

Amidst the uncertainties of global economy and relentless march of climate change, companies with strong ESG profiles are increasingly drawing the eye of investors. This shift has elevated ESG to a crucial factor in how capital is distributed. Simultaneously, the impact of ESG is no longer confined to individual firms; it is likely to extend to other enterprises within the same industry, giving rise to the spillover effect discussed in this paper. Employing China's A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2023, this paper explores the spillover effect that high ESG performance exerts on the debt financing costs of peer firms in the same industry. The study obtains interesting findings with practical significance. Firstly, the debt financing costs of peer firms have decreased by 10.58%, which is impacted by the high ratings of the first batch of enterprises to receive ESG ratings from institutions. This spillover effect mainly works through the credit attractiveness of the industry and learning mechanism in peer firms. Secondly, some spillover effects are limited by the constrained impact of a firm's ESG performance on its financing, while others face obstacles in the transmission pathways to peer firms. This paper identifies these differentiated constrains. Finally, the diversity of ESG ratings by third-party agencies can enhance the peer spillovers by enhancing information and inhibiting rent seeking. This study expands the research perspectives incorporating ESG and offers empirical evidence to improve enterprises financing efficiency and industry synergy.

在全球经济的不确定性和气候变化的无情推进中，具有良好ESG背景的公司越来越受到投资者的关注。这一转变已将ESG提升为影响资本分配的一个关键因素。同时，ESG的影响不再局限于单个公司；它很可能会扩展到同行业的其他企业，从而产生本文所讨论的溢出效应。本文以2010 - 2023年中国a股上市公司为研究对象，探讨高ESG绩效对同行业同行公司债务融资成本的溢出效应。本研究获得了具有实际意义的有趣发现。一是受首批获得机构ESG评级的企业评级较高的影响，同行企业债务融资成本下降10.58%。这种溢出效应主要通过行业的信用吸引力和同行企业的学习机制来实现。其次，一些溢出效应受到企业ESG绩效对其融资的有限影响的限制，而另一些溢出效应在向同行企业的传导途径中面临障碍。本文识别了这些不同的约束。最后，第三方机构ESG评级的多样性可以通过增强信息和抑制寻租来增强同行溢出效应。本研究拓展了纳入ESG的研究视角，为提高企业融资效率和行业协同效应提供了实证证据。

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引用次数: 0

Does agricultural industry agglomeration mitigate the trade shocks on food system resilience? Empirical evidence from China 农业产业集聚是否缓解了贸易冲击对粮食系统弹性的影响？来自中国的经验证据

IF 11.2 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2026.108377

Ruimin Yin , Zhanqi Wang , Yue Dou , Xinyuan Liang , Yunxiao Gao , Dengying Huang

The increasing interconnectedness among countries and regions presents significant risks from external disruptions to China's food security. In this study, we aimed to propose valuable insights amidst the transformation of China's food system by revealing relationships between trade shocks, agricultural industry agglomeration, and food system resilience. With panel data, we investigated the impact and transmission mechanisms of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on food system resilience (FSR) and examined how agricultural industry agglomeration (AIA) regulated this relationship from the perspective of geographic clustering and specialization. Our findings indicated that heightened TPU considerably undermined FSR, while AIA mitigated the negative effects. Regional analyses revealed that TPU significantly affected FSR in major producing areas and major selling areas, whereas its impact differed comparatively in producing and selling balanced areas. Additionally, the geographic clustering substantially alleviated shocks in major producing and selling areas, with varying effects observed regarding specialization. A comparison of resilience dimensions indicated that geographic clustering significantly regulated different resilience dimensions. Notably, specialization diminished the impact of resistance and failed to contribute effectively to adaptation and transformation. These findings underscore the critical role of AIA in regulating external shocks to the food system, offering insights for enhancing and adjusting the resilience structure, as well as for formulating agricultural policies that account for regional functional disparities.

国家和地区之间日益紧密的联系给中国的粮食安全带来了巨大的外部干扰风险。在本研究中，我们旨在通过揭示贸易冲击、农业产业集聚和粮食系统弹性之间的关系，为中国粮食系统转型提供有价值的见解。利用面板数据，研究贸易政策不确定性（TPU）对粮食系统弹性（FSR）的影响及其传导机制，并从地理集聚和专业化的角度考察农业产业集聚（AIA）如何调节这一关系。我们的研究结果表明，TPU的升高极大地破坏了FSR，而AIA减轻了负面影响。区域分析表明，TPU对FSR的影响在主产区和主销区显著，在产销平衡区差异较大。此外，地理集群极大地缓解了主要生产和销售地区的冲击，在专业化方面观察到不同的影响。弹性维度的比较表明，地理聚类对不同弹性维度具有显著调节作用。值得注意的是，专业化削弱了抵抗的影响，未能有效地促进适应和转型。这些发现强调了AIA在调节粮食系统外部冲击方面的关键作用，为加强和调整抵御力结构以及制定考虑区域功能差异的农业政策提供了见解。

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引用次数: 0

A comparative evaluation of spatial cross-correlation approaches for diagnosing water-related compound risk: A case study in the Greater Bay Area, China 空间互相关方法在水相关复合风险诊断中的比较评价——以大湾区为例

IF 11.2 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2026.108400

Peijun Lu , Yimin Sun , Yicheng Wang

Compound disasters arising from interacting hazards increasingly challenge urban resilience, yet spatially explicit tools for diagnosing where hazards co-vary remain limited. To address this gap, this study develops a spatial explicit inferential diagnostic framework that applies moving-window cross-correlation to harmonized raster risk layers, providing a map-based assessment of local inter-hazard dependence. The framework implements three complementary statistics within a moving-window design—Dutilleul's modified t-test (spatial-autocorrelation-adjusted inference), mutual information (nonlinear dependence detection), and Kendall's τ (rank-based robustness)—and benchmarks their performance in terms of diagnostic consistency, computational efficiency, reliability, and scale sensitivity across multiple spatial scales. The Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area, China, serves as the case study, focusing on water-related compound risk. Results show that high-to-very-high dependence zones concentrate in coastal–estuarine corridors and major urban drainage basins, highlighting interaction patterns not recoverable from single-hazard overlays alone. Under an uncertainty-aware validation framework, Dutilleul's modified t-test achieved the strongest fine-scale hotspot delineation, with 88.0% of river flood–urban inundation event and 65.7% of urban inundation–storm surge events intersecting mapped high-dependence zones. Kendall's τ provides balanced robustness and stable performance across scales, supporting regional screening and cross-validation of spatial patterns. Mutual information generates smoother dependence fields with low scale sensitivity, indicating value for reconnaissance-style mapping but reduced fidelity for localized hotspot targeting. Runtime comparisons further demonstrate that methodological performance is scale-conditional, with Dutilleul's test fastest at fine resolutions but increasingly computationally intensive at larger window sizes. Rather than replacing indicator-based risk assessment, the proposed framework functions as a complementary diagnostic tool that quantifies where hazards reinforce one another under spatial autocorrelation. By explicitly mapping localized dependence regimes, the study advances multi-hazard interpretation and provides a transferable workflow for compound-risk screening in data-rich urban regions. Future research should expand compound-event validation datasets, improve computational scalability, and extend the hazard-agnostic workflow to additional hazard combinations and scenario-based planning contexts.

由相互作用的灾害引起的复合灾害日益挑战城市的复原力，但用于诊断灾害共变地区的空间明确工具仍然有限。为了解决这一差距，本研究开发了一个空间显式推理诊断框架，该框架将移动窗口相互关联应用于协调的栅格风险层，提供了基于地图的局部风险间依赖性评估。该框架在移动窗口设计中实现了三个互补的统计量——dutilleul的改进t检验（空间自相关调整推理）、互信息（非线性依赖检测）和Kendall的τ（基于秩的鲁棒性）——并在诊断一致性、计算效率、可靠性和跨多个空间尺度的尺度敏感性方面对它们的性能进行了基准测试。以中国粤港澳大湾区为例，重点关注与水有关的复合风险。结果表明，高至极高依赖带集中在海岸-河口廊道和主要城市流域，突出了单灾害叠加无法恢复的相互作用模式。在不确定性感知的验证框架下，Dutilleul改进的t检验实现了最强的精细尺度热点圈定，88.0%的河流洪水-城市淹没事件和65.7%的城市淹没-风暴潮事件相交于地图上的高依赖区。Kendall τ在不同尺度上提供平衡的稳健性和稳定的性能，支持区域筛选和空间模式的交叉验证。互信息产生更平滑的依赖场，尺度灵敏度低，对侦察式测绘有价值，但对局部热点定位的保真度降低。运行时比较进一步表明，方法性能是有规模条件的，Dutilleul的测试在精细分辨率下速度最快，但在较大的窗口尺寸下计算量越来越大。拟议的框架不是取代基于指标的风险评估，而是作为一种补充诊断工具，量化在空间自相关性下危害相互增强的地方。通过明确映射局部依赖机制，该研究推进了多危害解释，并为数据丰富的城市地区的复合风险筛查提供了可转移的工作流程。未来的研究应扩展复合事件验证数据集，提高计算可扩展性，并将灾害不可知工作流程扩展到其他危险组合和基于场景的规划环境中。

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引用次数: 0

Consumption-driven health burdens within borders: China's interprovincial transfers 消费驱动的国内卫生负担：中国的省际转移

IF 11.2 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2026.108367

Haoxuan Yu , Izni Zahidi , Chow Ming Fai , Dongfang Liang

China's clean-air strategies have led to remarkable improvements in air quality and public health, representing a critical environmental achievement. Building on this progress, understanding the spatial distribution of health benefits provides important insights for future policy optimization. Historically, the country's interprovincial economic networks have shaped the geographic distribution of pollution and health burdens, with emissions often occurring in industrial production regions while consumption benefits accrue in economic centers. This study provides a quantitative assessment of how historical economic linkages have influenced environmental health distribution patterns, integrating multi-regional input–output (MRIO) data, emission inventories, population exposure maps, and mortality estimates across 31 provinces over the 2012–2017 period. Using a consumption-based responsibility framework, the analysis quantifies the transfer of PM₂.₅-attributable premature deaths between producing and consuming provinces and examines how these spatial patterns evolved during this transformative period. Results show that approximately 40.0% of PM₂.₅-related premature deaths in 2015 were associated with production serving consumption in other provinces. Coastal economic hubs such as Beijing and Shanghai sourced over 80% of their consumption from other provinces, while inland industrial regions including Hebei, Shandong, and Shanxi experienced mortality rates up to three times higher than implied by their own consumption. Despite a one-third national reduction in PM₂.₅ concentrations, these historical development patterns persisted along east-to-inland economic corridors. By examining historical patterns of economic development and environmental health outcomes, this study offers evidence-based insights for future policy design. Learning from these spatial dynamics and embedding spatial equity considerations into fiscal and business strategies, strengthening interregional coordination mechanisms, and promoting comprehensive supply-chain accountability are essential steps toward aligning clean-air progress with sustainable and just development goals in China's next phase of ecological civilization construction.

中国的清洁空气战略显著改善了空气质量和公众健康，是一项重要的环境成就。在这一进展的基础上，了解卫生惠益的空间分布为未来的政策优化提供了重要见解。从历史上看，中国的省际经济网络塑造了污染和健康负担的地理分布，排放往往发生在工业生产区，而消费利益则在经济中心积累。本研究通过整合2012-2017年期间31个省份的多区域投入产出（MRIO）数据、排放清单、人口暴露图和死亡率估算，对历史经济联系如何影响环境健康分布模式进行了定量评估。使用基于消费的责任框架，该分析量化了PM₂的转移。生产省和消费省之间因₅导致的过早死亡，并研究这些空间模式在这一变革时期的演变情况。结果表明，约40.0%的PM₂。2015年与₅相关的过早死亡与其他省份的生产服务消费有关。北京和上海等沿海经济中心80%以上的消费来自外省，而河北、山东和山西等内陆工业地区的死亡率高达其自身消费水平的三倍。尽管全国的pm2.5减少了三分之一。₅集中，这些历史发展模式沿着东部到内陆的经济走廊持续存在。通过考察经济发展和环境健康结果的历史模式，本研究为未来的政策设计提供了基于证据的见解。借鉴这些空间动态，将空间公平考虑纳入财政和商业战略，加强区域间协调机制，推进供应链全面问责，是中国下一阶段生态文明建设中清洁空气进步与可持续、公正发展目标相结合的必要步骤。

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引用次数: 0