Environmental Impact Assessment Review最新文献_第3页

A call for strategic assessments of regional applications of solar radiation management: Exploring the challenges and opportunities from marine cloud brightening and albedo surface modification 呼吁对太阳辐射管理的区域应用进行战略评估：探索海洋云增亮和反照率表面改性带来的挑战和机遇

IF 9.8 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2024-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2024.107701

U. Baresi , C.M. Baum , T.B. Fischer , S. Lockie , A. Piggott-McKellar , V. Graham , E. Bohensky , L.B. Fritz , N. Shumway , D.P. Harrison , R. Foster , B.K. Sovacool , K. Vella , Z. Ristovski

Technological advancements offer the opportunity for interventions to reduce and potentially even counteract the impacts of climate change. However, advancements that can facilitate the adaptation of human and natural ecosystems to climate change, and possibly lessen the intensity and damaging impacts of extreme weather events, come with social, technical, and environmental challenges. These challenges are triggered by the complexity and uncertainty associated with their deployment in real-world settings. In this paper, we consider Solar Radiation Management interventions aiming to limit the heat absorbed by our planet's surface and trapped in its atmosphere, focusing on Marine Cloud Brightening and Albedo Surface Modification, particularly to protect ice surfaces, as examples of regional-scale interventions. Building on the need for more socially inclusive decision-making around these interventions, as highlighted by the Australian case study of the Great Barrier Reef's Reef Restoration and Adaptation Program, this paper proposes a policy framework with worldwide potential to assist with regional Solar Radiation Management. To this end, we suggest the use of Strategic Environmental Assessment, a United Nations recognised policy framework that is applied internationally to support environmentally sustainable strategic decision-making and planning. We consider Strategic Environmental Assessment's performance criteria in relation to Solar Radiation Management and discuss how these align with much-needed assistance in developing socially inclusive Solar Radiation Management interventions.

技术进步为减少甚至可能抵消气候变化的影响提供了干预机会。然而，能够促进人类和自然生态系统适应气候变化，并有可能减轻极端天气事件的强度和破坏性影响的先进技术，也伴随着社会、技术和环境方面的挑战。在现实环境中部署这些技术的复杂性和不确定性引发了这些挑战。在本文中，我们将考虑太阳辐射管理干预措施，旨在限制地球表面吸收并滞留在大气中的热量，重点关注海洋云亮化和反照率表面改良，特别是保护冰面，以此作为区域范围干预措施的范例。澳大利亚大堡礁的珊瑚礁恢复和适应计划案例研究强调，围绕这些干预措施需要更具社会包容性的决策，在此基础上，本文提出了一个具有全球潜力的政策框架，以协助区域太阳辐射管理。为此，我们建议使用战略环境评估，这是联合国认可的政策框架，在国际上被用于支持环境可持续战略决策和规划。我们考虑了战略环境评估与太阳辐射管理有关的绩效标准，并讨论了这些标准如何与在制定具有社会包容性的太阳辐射管理干预措施方面亟需的援助相一致。

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引用次数: 0

How centralizing environmental enforcement affects water quality: A quasi-experiment in China 集中环境执法如何影响水质？中国的准实验

IF 9.8 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2024.107704

Yu Tang , Zhe Liu , Tony R. Walker , Jesse Rodenbiker , Yongzhi Li , Weili Liu

China is ambitiously promoting centralization reform as a panacea for strict environmental regulation and pollution control. Numerous publications have confirmed the positive impacts of this reform on air quality and climate change. However, the impacts of centralization, particularly the centralization of environmental enforcement, on surface water quality remain unclear. To address this gap, this paper collected data from 78 surface water quality monitoring stations in China between July 2018 and December 2020 and used comprehensive administrative enforcement reform for ecological and environmental protection in China as a quasi-experiment of environmental enforcement centralization. The results of the staggered difference-in-differences estimation show that comprehensive administrative enforcement reform does not significantly improve integrated water quality, dissolved oxygen, permanganate index, and ammonia nitrogen. Its positive impact is confined to improving the acidity and alkalinity of surface water. Heterogeneous analysis reveals that comprehensive administrative enforcement reform has caused a significant deterioration of boundary water quality. However, comprehensive administrative enforcement reform can significantly improve integrated water quality if the mayor of the city where the monitoring station is located is older than 55. This demonstrates that local governments may control water pollution selectively due to economic costs and promotion motivations. This paper provides new insights into environmental centralization and water pollution control via data from China. Based on these findings, we recommend that global policymakers prudently expand the application scope of environmental centralization, focus on trans-border pollution, and design scientific cadre performance evaluation systems.

中国正雄心勃勃地推进中央集权改革，将其作为严格环境监管和污染控制的灵丹妙药。大量出版物证实了这一改革对空气质量和气候变化的积极影响。然而，中央集权，尤其是环境执法集中化对地表水质量的影响仍不明确。针对这一空白，本文收集了 2018 年 7 月至 2020 年 12 月期间中国 78 个地表水水质监测站点的数据，并将中国生态环境保护综合行政执法改革作为环境执法集中化的准实验。交错差分估计结果表明，综合行政执法改革对综合水质、溶解氧、高锰酸盐指数和氨氮的改善不明显。其积极影响仅限于改善地表水的酸碱度。异质性分析表明，综合行政执法改革导致边界水质明显恶化。但是，如果监测站所在城市的市长年龄在 55 岁以上，则综合行政执法改革可以显著改善综合水质。这表明，地方政府可能会出于经济成本和晋升动机，选择性地控制水污染。本文通过中国的数据为环境集权和水污染控制提供了新的见解。基于这些发现，我们建议全球政策制定者审慎扩大环境集权的应用范围，关注跨境污染，并设计科学的干部绩效评估体系。

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引用次数: 0

Nesting landscape character and personality assessment to intensify rural landscape regionality and uniqueness 筑巢景观特征和个性评估，强化乡村景观的区域性和独特性

IF 9.8 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2024-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2024.107705

Jiake Shen , Yaocheng Li , Yuncai Wang

Urbanization impacts and homogenization pressures are threatening rural landscapes worldwide, leading to the loss of their regionality and uniqueness. Landscape Character Assessment (LCA) measures and identifies the uniqueness and distinctiveness of landscapes, making the unique value of rural resources easier to understand, protect, and perpetuate. Originating in the UK in the 1970s, LCA has become the mainstream approach for identifying landscape characteristics and is now a tool for managing landscape changes globally. Landscape Personality Assessment (LPA) offers another perspective for effectively measuring and analyzing landscape characteristics but has not been widely applied since its proposal. To distinguish between these two perspectives on landscape uniqueness identification, this paper conducted a literature review and comparison study, summarizing and comparing the characteristics of LCA and LPA in terms of evaluation scale, dimensions, indicators, and supported types of practices, further clarifying their respective strengths and weaknesses. To complement each other's perspectives on landscape characteristic identification, a framework nesting LCA and LPA was proposed to address the issue of the loss of rural landscape regionality in territorial spatial planning. This framework aims to couple evaluations of multi-level spatial characteristics and combine the identification of multi-temporal landscape characteristics. The goal is to enrich the theoretical and methodological system of rural landscape characteristic evaluation and provide more tools for the planning and conservation of the regionality of rural landscapes globally.

城市化的影响和同质化的压力正在威胁着世界各地的乡村景观，导致其区域性和独特性的丧失。景观特征评估（LCA）可以测量和识别景观的独特性和鲜明性，使农村资源的独特价值更容易理解、保护和延续。LCA 起源于 20 世纪 70 年代的英国，现已成为识别景观特征的主流方法，也是管理全球景观变化的工具。景观个性评估（LPA）为有效测量和分析景观特征提供了另一种视角，但自提出以来并未得到广泛应用。为了区分这两种景观独特性识别的视角，本文进行了文献综述和对比研究，总结并比较了 LCA 和 LPA 在评价尺度、维度、指标和支持的实践类型等方面的特点，进一步明确了各自的优缺点。为了在景观特征识别方面互为补充，提出了一个嵌套 LCA 和 LPA 的框架，以解决国土空间规划中农村景观区域性丧失的问题。该框架旨在将多层次空间特征评价结合起来，并将多时空景观特征识别结合起来。其目标是丰富乡村景观特征评价的理论和方法体系，为全球乡村景观区域性的规划和保护提供更多工具。

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引用次数: 0

Dynamic monitoring of eco-environmental quality in the Greater Mekong Subregion: Evolutionary characteristics and country differences 大湄公河次区域生态环境质量动态监测：演变特征和国家差异

IF 9.8 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2024.107700

Chenli Liu , Yawen Li , Daming He , Bowen Deng , Enwei Zhang , Shengzhao Wei , Xingwu Duan

As a global hotspot of biodiversity and conservation, eco-environmental changes in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) are crucial to achieving global Sustainable Development Goals. However, the eco-environmental status of the GMS and its development trends remain unclear. In this study, we proposed an improved remote sensing ecological index (IRSEI) to assess eco-environmental quality (EQ) by integrating habitat quality into the remote sensing ecological index (RSEI) to consider the vegetation characteristics of the GMS. We then applied trend analysis and Hurst exponent analysis to explore the past and future spatiotemporal dynamic changes of EQ in the GMS. Our study revealed that the IRSEI exhibited better monitoring accuracy than the RSEI and could comprehensively and effectively evaluate the EQ of the GMS. Overall, more than 80 % of the GMS by area had moderate or greater EQ levels during the period 2000–2020. Good and excellent EQ levels were predominantly located in the southwestern Yunnan Province of China, northeastern Myanmar, Laos, and western Vietnam. From 2000 to 2020, the annual mean IRSEI value in the GMS exhibited an increasing trend (0.10 %/year), with the area of increased EQ concentrated in Yunnan Province and Myanmar. Additionally, the center of gravity of the IRSEI in the GMS showed an obvious migration to the northwest over the studied period. A total of 60.81 % of the study area exhibited Hurst values lower than 0.5, indicating anti-persistent changes in EQ over the past 21 years. Furthermore, the area in which the EQ was predicted to decrease was larger than that of predicted EQ improvement. Overall, these outcomes provide an important reference and new perspectives on eco-environmental protection in the GMS.

作为全球生物多样性和保护的热点地区，大湄公河次区域（GMS）的生态环境变化对于实现全球可持续发展目标至关重要。然而，大湄公河次区域的生态环境状况及其发展趋势仍不明确。在本研究中，我们提出了一种改进的遥感生态指数（IRSEI），通过将生境质量纳入遥感生态指数（RSEI）来评估生态环境质量（EQ），以考虑大湄公河次区域的植被特征。然后，我们应用趋势分析和赫斯特指数分析来探讨大湄公河次区域生态环境质量过去和未来的时空动态变化。研究结果表明，IRSEI 比 RSEI 具有更高的监测精度，能够全面有效地评估 GMS 的 EQ。总体而言，在2000-2020年期间，80%以上的大海洋生态系统（按区域划分）具有中等或以上的EQ水平。良好和极佳的 EQ 水平主要分布在中国云南省西南部、缅甸东北部、老挝和越南西部。从 2000 年到 2020 年，大湄公河次区域的 IRSEI 年平均值呈上升趋势（0.10%/年），EQ 上升区域主要集中在云南省和缅甸。此外，在研究期间，大湄公河次区域 IRSEI 的重心明显向西北迁移。共有 60.81% 的研究区域的 Hurst 值小于 0.5，表明在过去 21 年中，EQ 出现了反持续变化。此外，预测 EQ 下降的区域大于预测 EQ 改善的区域。总之，这些结果为大湄公河次区域的生态环境保护提供了重要参考和新的视角。

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引用次数: 0

The multiple empowerment effects of digital transformation on carbon emissions in manufacturing industry from the prospective of factor allocation: Theoretical analysis and empirical evidence 从要素配置视角看数字化转型对制造业碳排放的多重赋权效应：理论分析与经验证据

IF 9.8 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2024.107698

Yingmei Zhao, Wenping Wang

To enhance the value of data as a production factor in economic activities and encourage the mutually beneficial integration of digitalization and environmental sustainability in the manufacturing industry, a factor input intensity model empowered by data factor is constructed to quantitatively identify the multiple empowerment effects of digital transformation on carbon emissions in manufacturing, mainly including substitution and allocation innovation effects, and rebound effect. Empirical tests are also conducted using data from Chinese manufacturing between 2010 and 2019. It can be seen that the carbon reduction effect is determined by both substitution and allocation innovation effects. When the input intensity of the data factor increases to a certain threshold, there is a range of effective carbon reduction within which the rebound effect can be counteracted by the carbon reduction effect. As a result, the primary carbon reduction effect will gradually shift from the allocation innovation effect to the substitution innovation effect. Additionally, there is an inverted “U-shaped” nonlinear relationship between the data factor input intensity, innovation effects, and the carbon emission intensity of manufacturing. Moreover, in contrast to the same and significant inverted U-shaped relationship between data factor input intensity and the substitution innovation effect of energy factor across all types of sub-sector groups, there is significant heterogeneity in the result and direction of interaction relationships between data factor input intensity and the rest of the multiple empowerment effects.

为提升数据作为生产要素在经济活动中的价值，促进制造业数字化与环境可持续发展的互利融合，本文构建了数据要素赋能的要素投入强度模型，定量识别数字化转型对制造业碳排放的多重赋能效应，主要包括替代效应、配置创新效应和反弹效应。并利用 2010 年至 2019 年的中国制造业数据进行了实证检验。可以看出，碳减排效应是由替代效应和配置创新效应共同决定的。当数据因素的投入强度增加到一定临界值时，存在一个有效减碳范围，在此范围内，反弹效应可以被减碳效应抵消。因此，主要的碳减排效应将逐渐从分配创新效应转向替代创新效应。此外，数据要素投入强度、创新效应和制造业碳排放强度之间存在倒 "U "型的非线性关系。此外，数据要素投入强度与能源要素替代创新效应之间的倒 "U "型关系在所有类型的子行业组中都是相同且显著的，相比之下，数据要素投入强度与其他多重赋权效应之间的交互关系的结果和方向则存在显著的异质性。

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引用次数: 0

Recognizing and reconciling dynamic stakeholder conflicts for sustainability in old residential community renovation project strategies 认识和协调利益相关者的动态冲突，促进旧住宅小区改造项目战略的可持续性

IF 9.8 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2024-10-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2024.107693

Yue Teng , Yinghui Bao , Yushi Wang , Sha Liu , Zhongfu Li , Robert L.K. Tiong

Old residential community renovation (ORCR) projects have significant energy-saving potential and contribute to urban sustainability. The effective management of conflicts among stakeholders, which is viewed as a sustainable strategy, plays a critical role in the success of ORCR projects. However, the lack of research impedes the analysis of value conflicts related to sustainability among diverse stakeholders involved in social capital engagement during renovation. This study takes a sustainability-oriented perspective and employs an integrated system dynamics (SD) method to comprehensively analyze the grounds for dynamic stakeholder conflict outbreaks in the life cycle of ORCR projects. An integration of the Michelle score-based approach and Olander improved model was utilized to identify and quantify 51 value appeals from 15 engaging stakeholders, aiming to determine multi-power centers and construct an intricate conflict network based on a public-private partnership (PPP) renovation project. Based on the stakeholder analysis, the key influencing factors that lead to conflicts were evaluated and simulated to develop an SD model. The results indicate that increasing the revenue of the government and residents had the most significant effect on reducing the probability of a conflict outbreak, the results also show there is a potential risk of government revenue falling below the established baseline level in the pre-project phase. Sustainability-oriented strategies for conflict management derived from the results, which contribute to the sustainable development of cities, are discussed at the end of this paper.

旧住宅小区改造（OCR）项目具有巨大的节能潜力，有助于城市的可持续发展。有效管理利益相关者之间的冲突被视为一种可持续发展战略，对旧住宅社区改造项目的成功起着至关重要的作用。然而，研究的缺乏阻碍了对翻新过程中社会资本参与的不同利益相关者之间与可持续发展相关的价值冲突进行分析。本研究从可持续发展的视角出发，采用综合系统动力学（SD）方法，全面分析了利益相关者在 ORCR 项目生命周期中爆发动态冲突的原因。研究综合运用米歇尔评分法和奥兰德改进模型，对 15 个利益相关方的 51 项价值诉求进行识别和量化，旨在确定多方权力中心，构建基于公私合作（PPP）改造项目的错综复杂的冲突网络。在利益相关者分析的基础上，对导致冲突的关键影响因素进行了评估和模拟，从而建立了 SD 模型。结果表明，增加政府和居民的收入对降低冲突爆发的概率有最显著的影响，结果还显示，在项目前阶段，存在政府收入低于既定基线水平的潜在风险。本文末尾讨论了从结果中得出的以可持续性为导向的冲突管理策略，这些策略有助于城市的可持续发展。

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引用次数: 0

Synergistic effect of emission trading scheme and carbon tax: A CGE model-based study in China 排放交易计划与碳税的协同效应：基于 CGE 模型的中国研究

IF 9.8 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2024.107699

Zhijie Jia , Shiyan Wen , Rongxin Wu

Effective carbon pricing systems are essential for combating climate change, yet the synergistic potential of combined approaches remains underexplored. This study delves into the interaction effects of carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS) and carbon taxes using a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model. By developing six distinct policy scenarios, this study analyzes variations in emission mitigation effectiveness and associated costs. The findings highlight significant differences between implementing a comprehensive tax approach (CTA), which imposes a carbon tax on all industries, and a coverage-targeted only approach (CTO), which applies the carbon tax only to industries not covered by ETS. The CTO approach, while limited in its direct impact on high energy-intensive industries, demonstrates a substantial synergistic effect when combined with ETS. This synergy results in an additional reduction of 32 million tons of CO₂ and an economic cost of 5.24 billion yuan in GDP losses by 2030. Conversely, the CTA fails to achieve effective synergy with ETS, resulting in lower carbon prices and diminished carbon constraint capabilities. These insights underline the importance of strategic policy design in carbon mitigation, suggesting that a targeted approach can amplify the benefits of emissions trading systems. This study provides valuable guidance for policymakers aiming to enhance the effectiveness of carbon reduction strategies through integrated policy measures.

有效的碳定价系统对于应对气候变化至关重要，然而，综合方法的协同潜力仍未得到充分发掘。本研究利用动态递归可计算一般均衡模型，深入探讨了碳排放交易计划（ETS）和碳税的互动效应。通过制定六种不同的政策情景，本研究分析了减排效果和相关成本的变化。研究结果表明，在对所有行业征收碳税的全面征税方法（CTA）和仅针对覆盖范围的方法（CTO）之间存在显著差异，前者仅对排放交易计划未覆盖的行业征收碳税。CTO 方法虽然对高能耗产业的直接影响有限，但与排放交易计划相结合，却能产生巨大的协同效应。到 2030 年，这种协同效应可额外减少 3200 万吨二氧化碳，并减少 52.4 亿元 GDP 损失的经济成本。相反，CTA 未能与 ETS 实现有效协同，导致碳价格下降和碳约束能力减弱。这些见解强调了战略性政策设计在碳减排中的重要性，表明有针对性的方法可以放大排放交易体系的效益。本研究为旨在通过综合政策措施提高碳减排战略有效性的政策制定者提供了宝贵的指导。

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引用次数: 0

Influence of land use intensity on urban carbon efficiency under a carbon neutrality target: Evidence from the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, China 碳中和目标下土地利用强度对城市碳效率的影响：来自中国长江三角洲城市群的证据

IF 9.8 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2024-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2024.107689

Xu Wu , Shengyang Zhong , Gang Chen , Chenghe Wu , Jiayin Han , Zhiquan Qian

Urban carbon efficiency (UCE) is a critical measure for guiding cities in reducing carbon emissions while sustaining economic growth. Enhancing UCEs through efficient urban land use is considered a key strategy. However, while previous research has explored the impact of urban land use on carbon efficiency, the influence under the constraints of carbon neutrality targets remains underexamined. To fill this gap, we apply a super-efficiency slack-based measure (SBM) model combined with a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model to assess the heterogeneous effects of land use intensity on UCEs within the carbon neutrality framework. Additionally, we use a causal mediation effect model to identify the mediating factors. Using data from 2000 to 2019 for 41 prefecture-level cities in China's Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, we find the following: (1) A 1% decrease in land use intensity (urban land use per unit of GDP) leads to a 0.745% increase in UCE and a 0.227% increase in carbon neutrality potential (CNP) when carbon sequestration is included in the UCE calculation, both at a significance level of 1%. (2) The negative effects of land use intensity show significant heterogeneity across different city types. Specifically, it significantly impacts both UCE and CNP in cities with high economic levels and low ecological levels but significantly affects only UCE in other cities. (3) The urban population and built-up area amplify the influence of land use intensity on UCEs through mediating effects, whereas factors such as industrial structure, energy intensity, and foreign direct investment mitigate this influence. These findings underscore the importance of incorporating carbon sequestration in UCE assessments under carbon neutrality constraints. They also suggest that policy-makers should adopt differentiated urban land management strategies tailored to the socioeconomic and ecological conditions of different cities to enhance UCEs within urban agglomerations.

城市碳效率（UCE）是指导城市在保持经济增长的同时减少碳排放的关键措施。通过有效利用城市土地提高城市碳效率被认为是一项关键战略。然而，尽管之前的研究已经探讨了城市土地利用对碳效率的影响，但对碳中和目标约束下的影响仍未进行深入研究。为了填补这一空白，我们采用了基于松弛度量的超效率（SBM）模型，结合看似无关回归（SUR）模型，在碳中和框架内评估土地利用强度对城市能源效率的异质性影响。此外，我们还使用因果中介效应模型来识别中介因素。利用 2000 年至 2019 年中国长江三角洲城市群 41 个地级市的数据，我们发现了以下情况：(1) 土地利用强度（单位 GDP 的城市土地利用）每降低 1%，UCE 将增加 0.745%，如果将碳封存纳入 UCE 计算，碳中和潜力（CNP）将增加 0.227%，显著性水平均为 1%。(2）土地利用强度的负面影响在不同城市类型中表现出显著的异质性。具体而言，在经济水平高、生态水平低的城市，土地利用强度对城市碳排放系数和国家碳储量都有显著影响，但在其他城市，土地利用强度仅对城市碳排放系数有显著影响。(3) 城市人口和建成区通过中介效应放大了土地利用强度对 UCE 的影响，而产业结构、能源强度和外商直接投资等因素则减轻了这种影响。这些发现强调了在碳中和约束条件下将碳封存纳入UCE评估的重要性。这些研究还建议，政策制定者应根据不同城市的社会经济和生态条件，采取差异化的城市土地管理策略，以提高城市群内的 UCE。

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引用次数: 0

Tracking cement transportation carbon emissions in China: Historical assessment and future simulation 中国水泥运输碳排放追踪：历史评估与未来模拟

IF 9.8 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2024-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2024.107696

Rui Li , Yuchen Wei , Weiguang Cai , Yuan Liu , Kairui You , Yanhui Yu

China has the largest scale of cement production and consumption worldwide; likewise, its scale of cement transportation is also large. The energy consumption and carbon emissions of cement transportation cannot be ignored. This study calculates cement transportation carbon emissions from 2010 to 2020 at the national and provincial levels via the emission factor method, quantifies the contributions of various influencing factors via the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI), and further conducts scenario simulations to forecast future trends by integrating future cement consumption demand and transportation policy orientations. The research results showed that national carbon emissions from cement transportation reached a peak of 18.54 million tCO₂ in 2014 (highway transportation contributed more than 80 %), and the cement transportation carbon emissions in various provinces exhibited a spatial pattern of high in the east and low in the west. The cement transportation volume, transportation structure, transportation intensity, and carbon emission factors jointly drive the growth of cement transportation carbon emissions, whereas energy consumption intensity plays an important inhibitory role. Under low, medium and high cement consumption demand scenarios, the difference in the cumulative carbon emission reductions achievable in cement transportation from 2021 to 2050 is not significant (approximately 6 to 10 million tCO₂), while under transportation policy-oriented scenarios of transportation structure optimization and low-carbon blueprint, the variation in the cumulative carbon emission reductions achievable in future cement transportation is relatively obvious (approximately 40 to 50 million tCO₂). Therefore, compared with controlling future cement consumption demand, transportation-side policy measures such as improving the energy efficiency of transportation vehicles, optimizing the transportation structure, and enhancing the application of clean energy can achieve greater carbon reduction potential (the cumulative carbon emission reduction is approximately 90 to 140 million tCO₂). This study provides a decision-making reference for refining China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality action plans in the transportation sector.

中国是世界上水泥生产和消费规模最大的国家，水泥运输规模也很大。水泥运输的能耗和碳排放不容忽视。本研究通过排放因子法计算了 2010 至 2020 年全国和各省水泥运输碳排放量，通过对数平均迪维西亚指数（LMDI）量化了各种影响因素的贡献，并结合未来水泥消费需求和运输政策导向，进一步进行情景模拟，预测未来趋势。研究结果表明，2014年全国水泥运输碳排放达到峰值1854万吨CO2（公路运输贡献率超过80%），各省水泥运输碳排放呈现东高西低的空间格局。水泥运输量、运输结构、运输强度和碳排放因素共同推动了水泥运输碳排放的增长，而能源消耗强度则起到了重要的抑制作用。在低、中、高水泥消费需求情景下，2021-2050年水泥运输可实现的累计碳减排量差异不大（约600-1000万吨CO2），而在运输结构优化和低碳蓝图的运输政策导向情景下，未来水泥运输可实现的累计碳减排量差异较为明显（约4000-5000万吨CO2）。因此，与控制未来水泥消费需求相比，提高运输车辆能效、优化运输结构、加强清洁能源应用等运输侧政策措施可实现更大的碳减排潜力（累计碳减排量约为9000万～1.4亿tCO2）。本研究为完善中国交通领域碳峰值和碳中和行动计划提供了决策参考。

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引用次数: 0

Synergy or conflict? Identification of coordination effects in the framework of climate adaptation and mitigation strategies 协同还是冲突？确定气候适应和减缓战略框架内的协调效应

IF 9.8 1区社会学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Environmental Impact Assessment Review

Pub Date : 2024-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2024.107694

Xin Ning , Yue An , Hongyang Li , Vanessa Menadue , Martin Skitmore

Efficiently curbing the intensity and pace of climate change involves synergetic adaptation and mitigation strategies. Despite their significance, the coordination effects of these strategies, as well as interactive response patterns, need to be further identified. In response, using data spanning 31 provinces in China from 2013 to 2022, the tailored evaluation systems are separately developed to quantify the adaptation and mitigation. Leveraging these quantitative results, the coupling coordination of climate adaptation and mitigation in each province is calculated to identify whether they are in synergy or conflict. Then, a comprehensive cross-judgment framework is developed to subdivide the synergistic effect into “low level” (SA) vs. “high level” (SB), and the conflict effect into “adaptation lag” (CA) vs. “mitigation lag” (CB). Ultimately, the interactive response patterns of urban internal adaptation and mitigation under each effect are further analyzed, as well as the evolutionary trends under the influence of spillovers from external neighboring provinces. The results show that the number of synergistic provinces is increasing, mainly located in economically active regions, while the number of conflict provinces is decreasing, mainly located in resource-consuming regions. Notably, SB provinces exhibit positive interactions with short-term lags in climate adaptation and mitigation, compared to SA provinces, which also exhibit positive interactions, but with a longer lag in effects. As for conflict provinces, no effective pattern of positive interactions has yet emerged. These findings can provide empirical support and decision-making references for provinces to accurately position themselves and adopt more synergistic action strategies.

有效遏制气候变化的强度和速度涉及协同适应和减缓战略。尽管意义重大，但这些战略的协调效应以及互动响应模式仍有待进一步确定。为此，利用 2013 年至 2022 年中国 31 个省份的数据，分别开发了量身定制的评估系统，对适应和减缓进行量化。利用这些量化结果，计算出各省气候适应与减缓的耦合协调性，以确定二者是协同还是冲突。然后，建立一个综合交叉判断框架，将协同效应细分为 "低水平"（SA）与 "高水平"（SB），将冲突效应细分为 "适应滞后"（CA）与 "减缓滞后"（CB）。最后，进一步分析了每种效应下城市内部适应与缓解的互动响应模式，以及外部邻省溢出效应影响下的演化趋势。结果表明，协同省份的数量在增加，主要分布在经济活跃地区，而冲突省份的数量在减少，主要分布在资源消耗地区。值得注意的是，SB 省在气候适应和减缓方面表现出短期滞后的正向互动，相比之下，SA 省也表现出正向互动，但效果滞后较长。至于冲突省份，尚未出现有效的良性互动模式。这些发现可以为各省准确定位、采取更具协同效应的行动策略提供经验支持和决策参考。

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引用次数: 0