Pub Date : 2025-11-04DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108239
Yizhong Wang , Ye Hang , Qunwei Wang
A national unified market in China can promote inter-provincial trade restructuring and technology diffusion, which can contribute to CO2 reduction. However, existing studies paid insufficient attention to quantifying the CO2 emissions mitigation potential (CMP) of trade restructuring and technology diffusion. Therefore, this paper constructs a multi-regional Leontief input-output optimization model to accurately quantify the CMP. Further, this paper analyzes its composition from three perspectives: emission subject, driving factor, and industrial chain. The results indicate that the distribution of the CMP was uneven among emission subjects (regions and sectors) in China. Besides, due to the increasing demand for low-carbon products, the prevailing viewpoint that the more emissions, the greater the CMP, must be reconsidered. At the factor level, the CMP was concentrated on two technology-related factors. However, the CMP of trade restructuring was low, which may be related to the high degree of industrial regional agglomeration. The industrial chains associated with the construction sector, services sector, and equipment manufacturing sectors were the key to tapping the CMP. Moreover, the CMP distribution structures of various regions from the industrial chain perspective were converging, while those of various sectors were becoming increasingly different.
{"title":"CO2 emissions mitigation potential from inter-provincial trade restructuring and technology diffusion in China: A multi-regional Leontief optimization method","authors":"Yizhong Wang , Ye Hang , Qunwei Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108239","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108239","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A national unified market in China can promote inter-provincial trade restructuring and technology diffusion, which can contribute to CO<sub>2</sub> reduction. However, existing studies paid insufficient attention to quantifying the CO<sub>2</sub> emissions mitigation potential (CMP) of trade restructuring and technology diffusion. Therefore, this paper constructs a multi-regional Leontief input-output optimization model to accurately quantify the CMP. Further, this paper analyzes its composition from three perspectives: emission subject, driving factor, and industrial chain. The results indicate that the distribution of the CMP was uneven among emission subjects (regions and sectors) in China. Besides, due to the increasing demand for low-carbon products, the prevailing viewpoint that the more emissions, the greater the CMP, must be reconsidered. At the factor level, the CMP was concentrated on two technology-related factors. However, the CMP of trade restructuring was low, which may be related to the high degree of industrial regional agglomeration. The industrial chains associated with the construction sector, services sector, and equipment manufacturing sectors were the key to tapping the CMP. Moreover, the CMP distribution structures of various regions from the industrial chain perspective were converging, while those of various sectors were becoming increasingly different.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":309,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Impact Assessment Review","volume":"118 ","pages":"Article 108239"},"PeriodicalIF":11.2,"publicationDate":"2025-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145464639","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-03DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108247
Jiahui Li , Lin Huang , Jun Zhai , Shihao Wang
Growing global resource demand is intensifying ecological inequality. Our integrated biophysical and governance analysis of 65 Pan-Eurasian nations shows that by 2050, under a business-as-usual pathway, 90 % of ecological overload (measured by the ecological carrying index, ECI) will occur in lower-income, agriculture-dependent countries (ECI > 1.2). Burdens are highly uneven: the poorest 50 % of countries bear 70 % of the overload, while the richest 10 % account for only 5 %. Even under a sustainability-oriented pathway, aggregate ecological pressure falls by only ∼4 %, indicating persistent governance challenges. Our governance assessment highlights that Central/Eastern Europe generally maintains sustainable ecological levels (ECI < 1.2) under decentralized-but-coordinated arrangements, while parts of South Asia exhibit fragmented institutions associated with high stress (ECI > 2.0). To address these imbalances, we outline three institutional reforms: (1) artificial-intelligence-supported land-use planning coupled with World Trade Organization-compliant ecological tariffs, (2) payment for ecosystem service mechanisms targeted to high-ECI regions, and (3) mandatory due diligence for deforestation-linked imports. These measures provide an operational pathway for implementing equitable (“just”) planetary boundaries under the post-2020 Convention on Biological Diversity, advancing accountability and fairness in Earth System Governance.
{"title":"Reforming trade governance for sustainable resource flows: Ecologically unequal exchange in Pan-Eurasia","authors":"Jiahui Li , Lin Huang , Jun Zhai , Shihao Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108247","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108247","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Growing global resource demand is intensifying ecological inequality. Our integrated biophysical and governance analysis of 65 Pan-Eurasian nations shows that by 2050, under a business-as-usual pathway, 90 % of ecological overload (measured by the ecological carrying index, ECI) will occur in lower-income, agriculture-dependent countries (ECI > 1.2). Burdens are highly uneven: the poorest 50 % of countries bear 70 % of the overload, while the richest 10 % account for only 5 %. Even under a sustainability-oriented pathway, aggregate ecological pressure falls by only ∼4 %, indicating persistent governance challenges. Our governance assessment highlights that Central/Eastern Europe generally maintains sustainable ecological levels (ECI < 1.2) under decentralized-but-coordinated arrangements, while parts of South Asia exhibit fragmented institutions associated with high stress (ECI > 2.0). To address these imbalances, we outline three institutional reforms: (1) artificial-intelligence-supported land-use planning coupled with World Trade Organization-compliant ecological tariffs, (2) payment for ecosystem service mechanisms targeted to high-ECI regions, and (3) mandatory due diligence for deforestation-linked imports. These measures provide an operational pathway for implementing equitable (“just”) planetary boundaries under the post-2020 Convention on Biological Diversity, advancing accountability and fairness in Earth System Governance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":309,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Impact Assessment Review","volume":"118 ","pages":"Article 108247"},"PeriodicalIF":11.2,"publicationDate":"2025-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145464690","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108241
Andrei Briones-Hidrovo , Sebastião M.R. Costa , Cristiana Maganinho , Clara M.C. Silva , João Rocha , Ana Cláudia Dias , Inês Portugal , Carlos M. Silva
{"title":"Corrigendum to “Recovering carbon black from end-of-life tires: A consequential life cycle assessment” [Environmental Impact Assessment Review 115 (2025) 108044]","authors":"Andrei Briones-Hidrovo , Sebastião M.R. Costa , Cristiana Maganinho , Clara M.C. Silva , João Rocha , Ana Cláudia Dias , Inês Portugal , Carlos M. Silva","doi":"10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108241","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108241","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":309,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Impact Assessment Review","volume":"117 ","pages":"Article 108241"},"PeriodicalIF":11.2,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145620335","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108248
Yiming Liu, Hui Zeng
The ongoing spatial squeeze of coastal areas has substantially increased ecosystem risks by weakening their natural buffering and regulatory functions, thereby intensifying negative impacts on urban societies as well as terrestrial and marine ecosystems. However, owing to the scarcity of coastline data and the complexity of its extraction, current research on coastal squeeze remains fragmented at the national scale and often overlooks marine-related risks. This study aimed to assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of coastal squeeze by generating high-accuracy, low-intervention coastline datasets for mainland China at five-year intervals from 1985 to 2024 using the random forest method, and associated multi-scenario and multi-system risks based on the evolution patterns of coastal squeeze. The results indicate that China's coastline has generally advanced seaward, with noticeable erosion during periods of low coastal construction intensity, such as 1985–1990 and 2015–2024. Approximately half of the coastal area experienced a squeeze between 1985 and 1990, followed by a significant seaward expansion until 2015 and a slight squeeze from 2015 to 2024. Bilateral squeeze is widespread south of the Zhejiang–Fujian administrative boundary, whereas to the north, squeeze patterns and intensities are more heterogeneous. High-risk areas resulting from coastal space squeeze are concentrated in economically developed coastal cities. Marine ecosystems face the highest risk, followed by terrestrial ecosystems and social systems. The findings provide theoretical support for accurate coastline extraction and offer practical guidance for sustainable coastal area management, with implications for policy development, coastline planning, and ecosystem risk mitigation.
{"title":"Coastal squeeze and multi-scenario risk assessment in China, 1985–2024","authors":"Yiming Liu, Hui Zeng","doi":"10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108248","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108248","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The ongoing spatial squeeze of coastal areas has substantially increased ecosystem risks by weakening their natural buffering and regulatory functions, thereby intensifying negative impacts on urban societies as well as terrestrial and marine ecosystems. However, owing to the scarcity of coastline data and the complexity of its extraction, current research on coastal squeeze remains fragmented at the national scale and often overlooks marine-related risks. This study aimed to assess the spatiotemporal dynamics of coastal squeeze by generating high-accuracy, low-intervention coastline datasets for mainland China at five-year intervals from 1985 to 2024 using the random forest method, and associated multi-scenario and multi-system risks based on the evolution patterns of coastal squeeze. The results indicate that China's coastline has generally advanced seaward, with noticeable erosion during periods of low coastal construction intensity, such as 1985–1990 and 2015–2024. Approximately half of the coastal area experienced a squeeze between 1985 and 1990, followed by a significant seaward expansion until 2015 and a slight squeeze from 2015 to 2024. Bilateral squeeze is widespread south of the Zhejiang–Fujian administrative boundary, whereas to the north, squeeze patterns and intensities are more heterogeneous. High-risk areas resulting from coastal space squeeze are concentrated in economically developed coastal cities. Marine ecosystems face the highest risk, followed by terrestrial ecosystems and social systems. The findings provide theoretical support for accurate coastline extraction and offer practical guidance for sustainable coastal area management, with implications for policy development, coastline planning, and ecosystem risk mitigation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":309,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Impact Assessment Review","volume":"118 ","pages":"Article 108248"},"PeriodicalIF":11.2,"publicationDate":"2025-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145415406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-31DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108253
Liv Stranddorf , Jacob Ladenburg , Agnes Rönnblom , Lena Landström , Stig Irving Olsen
The expansion of offshore wind energy presents new challenges as many wind farms approach the end of their operational lives and will need to be decommissioned. This study presents the first multi-criteria assessment of offshore wind farm decommissioning scenarios that brings together life cycle environmental impacts, local marine benthic biodiversity impacts, and public preferences. Using Horns Rev 1 – the oldest large-scale wind farm in the North Sea - as a case study, we analyze 16 decommissioning scenarios ranging from full removal of infrastructure to partial removal strategies in which parts of the foundation, scour protection, or cables are left in place. Environmental impacts are assessed through life cycle assessment, and local marine biodiversity impacts are quantified using a newly developed method tailored to North Sea habitats. Public preferences are analyzed based on a nationally representative Danish survey. Our findings show that removing high-value recyclable materials while leaving scour protection in place yields the lowest life cycle environmental impacts due to recycling benefits and avoided removal of components with low recycling value. In contrast, full removal receives the strongest public support and best aligns with restoration of the sandy seabed but also results in higher climate impacts. Biodiversity outcomes depend on the selected reference state and desired ecological function, with trade-offs between supporting native benthic communities and preserving artificial reef structures that support diverse communities. This study demonstrates the value of a multi-criteria approach to offshore wind decommissioning and provides a transferable framework supporting decision-making by integrating environmental, ecological, and societal dimensions.
{"title":"Evaluating environmental impacts and public preferences in offshore wind farm decommissioning","authors":"Liv Stranddorf , Jacob Ladenburg , Agnes Rönnblom , Lena Landström , Stig Irving Olsen","doi":"10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108253","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108253","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The expansion of offshore wind energy presents new challenges as many wind farms approach the end of their operational lives and will need to be decommissioned. This study presents the first multi-criteria assessment of offshore wind farm decommissioning scenarios that brings together life cycle environmental impacts, local marine benthic biodiversity impacts, and public preferences. Using Horns Rev 1 – the oldest large-scale wind farm in the North Sea - as a case study, we analyze 16 decommissioning scenarios ranging from full removal of infrastructure to partial removal strategies in which parts of the foundation, scour protection, or cables are left in place. Environmental impacts are assessed through life cycle assessment, and local marine biodiversity impacts are quantified using a newly developed method tailored to North Sea habitats. Public preferences are analyzed based on a nationally representative Danish survey. Our findings show that removing high-value recyclable materials while leaving scour protection in place yields the lowest life cycle environmental impacts due to recycling benefits and avoided removal of components with low recycling value. In contrast, full removal receives the strongest public support and best aligns with restoration of the sandy seabed but also results in higher climate impacts. Biodiversity outcomes depend on the selected reference state and desired ecological function, with trade-offs between supporting native benthic communities and preserving artificial reef structures that support diverse communities. This study demonstrates the value of a multi-criteria approach to offshore wind decommissioning and provides a transferable framework supporting decision-making by integrating environmental, ecological, and societal dimensions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":309,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Impact Assessment Review","volume":"118 ","pages":"Article 108253"},"PeriodicalIF":11.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145415407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-31DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108251
Yifeng Ji , Zhitao Li , Ying Liu , Hongyu Tang , Hao Sun , Tao Feng
With accelerating global warming trends, urban sprawl has emerged as a key driver of thermal environment changes in urban areas. However, limited attention has been given to how sprawl patterns shape the thermal environment at the city level. This study sets out to reveal the heterogeneous relationship between the spatial patterns of urban sprawl and thermal environment by analyzing 338 Chinese cities during hot summers from 1990 to 2020. Multi-source data were employed to assess the spatial arrangement and temporal dynamics of four urban sprawl patterns (centering, clustering, fragmentation, and complexity) alongside thermal conditions. A geographically weighted regression model revealed spatially varying associations between sprawl patterns and thermal environment. Results indicate a northward gradient of thermal deterioration, with the most severe warming in Northeast and Northwest China, while some southern tropical cities exhibit localized cooling. Sprawl patterns vary across regions and exhibit dual heterogeneity in their thermal impacts. Fragmentation demonstrates cooling effects in the southeastern coast, eastern Northwest, and northeastern Southwest China. Clustering improves thermal conditions in the southeastern coast, Bohai Rim, and northeastern and northwestern China, but intensifies heat stress in the southwest. Complexity worsens the thermal environment in the Yangtze River Delta and the junction of eastern Northwest and northeastern Southwest China, while slightly mitigating the thermal environment in northern cities. Centering shows limited impact, with minor improvements observed in southeastern coastal cities. Based on these findings, seven optimization zones have been identified with tailored thermal-mitigation strategies, providing evidence to guide regionally adaptive planning for climate-resilient urban development.
{"title":"How urban sprawl patterns shape the thermal environment during hot summers: An empirical analysis of 338 Chinese cities","authors":"Yifeng Ji , Zhitao Li , Ying Liu , Hongyu Tang , Hao Sun , Tao Feng","doi":"10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108251","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108251","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With accelerating global warming trends, urban sprawl has emerged as a key driver of thermal environment changes in urban areas. However, limited attention has been given to how sprawl patterns shape the thermal environment at the city level. This study sets out to reveal the heterogeneous relationship between the spatial patterns of urban sprawl and thermal environment by analyzing 338 Chinese cities during hot summers from 1990 to 2020. Multi-source data were employed to assess the spatial arrangement and temporal dynamics of four urban sprawl patterns (centering, clustering, fragmentation, and complexity) alongside thermal conditions. A geographically weighted regression model revealed spatially varying associations between sprawl patterns and thermal environment. Results indicate a northward gradient of thermal deterioration, with the most severe warming in Northeast and Northwest China, while some southern tropical cities exhibit localized cooling. Sprawl patterns vary across regions and exhibit dual heterogeneity in their thermal impacts. Fragmentation demonstrates cooling effects in the southeastern coast, eastern Northwest, and northeastern Southwest China. Clustering improves thermal conditions in the southeastern coast, Bohai Rim, and northeastern and northwestern China, but intensifies heat stress in the southwest. Complexity worsens the thermal environment in the Yangtze River Delta and the junction of eastern Northwest and northeastern Southwest China, while slightly mitigating the thermal environment in northern cities. Centering shows limited impact, with minor improvements observed in southeastern coastal cities. Based on these findings, seven optimization zones have been identified with tailored thermal-mitigation strategies, providing evidence to guide regionally adaptive planning for climate-resilient urban development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":309,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Impact Assessment Review","volume":"117 ","pages":"Article 108251"},"PeriodicalIF":11.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145412525","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-31DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108249
Mengqing Li , Xianfeng Tan , Jianguo Fan , Hongnian Chen , Tianzuo Zhang , Changting Li , Shuo Wang , Jinglan Hong
The treatment of high-salinity mine water (HSMW) is essential to prevent salt dispersion and protect surrounding ecosystems. However, this process involves significant energy and resource consumption, and its potential environmental impacts have not been adequately and systematically quantified. To fill this gap, this study employed a life cycle assessment approach to quantify, compare, and analyze the environmental impacts of two commonly used HSMW treatment processes: a nanofiltration-based process (S-1) and an electrodialysis-based process (S-2). Key contributing processes and substances were subsequently identified. The results indicated that S-1 exhibited lower potential environmental impacts than S-2, particularly in the categories of carcinogens and mineral resource scarcity. Most environmental burdens were concentrated in the fossil resource scarcity category (midpoint level) and resource category (endpoint level), accounting for 49.8 % and 80.2 % of total impacts in S-1, and 35.6 % and 79.3 % in S-2, respectively. Coal, oil, and carbon dioxide emissions were the key contributing substances to the overall environmental impacts. Electricity generation, chemical production, and the direct discharge of treated water were identified as the major contributing processes. Accordingly, three recommendations are proposed to mitigate environmental impacts: promoting the transition from coal-based to renewable power generation, encouraging resource recovery and by-product generation, and implementing classified treatment and graded utilization of HSMW.
{"title":"Environmental challenges in advanced treatment of high-salinity mine water: A life cycle assessment perspective","authors":"Mengqing Li , Xianfeng Tan , Jianguo Fan , Hongnian Chen , Tianzuo Zhang , Changting Li , Shuo Wang , Jinglan Hong","doi":"10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108249","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108249","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The treatment of high-salinity mine water (HSMW) is essential to prevent salt dispersion and protect surrounding ecosystems. However, this process involves significant energy and resource consumption, and its potential environmental impacts have not been adequately and systematically quantified. To fill this gap, this study employed a life cycle assessment approach to quantify, compare, and analyze the environmental impacts of two commonly used HSMW treatment processes: a nanofiltration-based process (S-1) and an electrodialysis-based process (S-2). Key contributing processes and substances were subsequently identified. The results indicated that S-1 exhibited lower potential environmental impacts than S-2, particularly in the categories of carcinogens and mineral resource scarcity. Most environmental burdens were concentrated in the fossil resource scarcity category (midpoint level) and resource category (endpoint level), accounting for 49.8 % and 80.2 % of total impacts in S-1, and 35.6 % and 79.3 % in S-2, respectively. Coal, oil, and carbon dioxide emissions were the key contributing substances to the overall environmental impacts. Electricity generation, chemical production, and the direct discharge of treated water were identified as the major contributing processes. Accordingly, three recommendations are proposed to mitigate environmental impacts: promoting the transition from coal-based to renewable power generation, encouraging resource recovery and by-product generation, and implementing classified treatment and graded utilization of HSMW.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":309,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Impact Assessment Review","volume":"118 ","pages":"Article 108249"},"PeriodicalIF":11.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145415408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Accelerating progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires a clear understanding of key causal relationships at both national and sub-national levels, which is crucial for identifying key impediments and opportunities to enhance policy coherence across sectors. However, current research on the causal interactions between SDGs and their indicators at sub-national level remains limited. This study first utilizes Multi-spatial Convergence Cross Mapping (MCCM) and network analysis methods to construct causal networks of SDGs and their indicators in China and its 31 provinces from 2000 to 2020. It analyzed the primary causal features of China's SDGs in terms of synergy and trade-off effects, as well as their spatial differences. The results show that, from 2000 to 2020, the causalities among the SDGs followed a 5:2 ratio between synergistic and trade-off effects, establishing a solid foundation for SDGs implementation. In 28 provinces, the main synergistic causality involved SDG4 and SDG17, and the bidirectional causality between them being the key causal feature in 18 provinces. The main trade-off causality across 13 provinces involved SDG12 and SDG15, indicating that trade-off between resource use, ecological protection and other SDGs remained a major challenge in achieving SDGs. Additionally, neighboring provinces exhibited similar causal loop characteristics, and prioritizing high-frequency indicators including SDG4.c.1, SDG17.8.1, SDG4.2.2, SDG9.c.1, SDG4.a.1, and SDG11.7.1 within synergistic loops were key for SDGs development. This study provides comprehensive insights into future development priorities of China and its administrative regions, offering valuable guidance for promoting policy coherence and achieving systematic coordination of the SDGs.
{"title":"Unveiling the challenges and opportunities of sustainable development goals in China: Untangling the main causal relationships","authors":"Ting Zhou , Chunlin Huang , Fanglei Zhong , Xiaoyu Song , Jinliang Hou , Ying Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108246","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108246","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accelerating progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires a clear understanding of key causal relationships at both national and sub-national levels, which is crucial for identifying key impediments and opportunities to enhance policy coherence across sectors. However, current research on the causal interactions between SDGs and their indicators at sub-national level remains limited. This study first utilizes Multi-spatial Convergence Cross Mapping (MCCM) and network analysis methods to construct causal networks of SDGs and their indicators in China and its 31 provinces from 2000 to 2020. It analyzed the primary causal features of China's SDGs in terms of synergy and trade-off effects, as well as their spatial differences. The results show that, from 2000 to 2020, the causalities among the SDGs followed a 5:2 ratio between synergistic and trade-off effects, establishing a solid foundation for SDGs implementation. In 28 provinces, the main synergistic causality involved SDG4 and SDG17, and the bidirectional causality between them being the key causal feature in 18 provinces. The main trade-off causality across 13 provinces involved SDG12 and SDG15, indicating that trade-off between resource use, ecological protection and other SDGs remained a major challenge in achieving SDGs. Additionally, neighboring provinces exhibited similar causal loop characteristics, and prioritizing high-frequency indicators including SDG4.c.1, SDG17.8.1, SDG4.2.2, SDG9.c.1, SDG4.a.1, and SDG11.7.1 within synergistic loops were key for SDGs development. This study provides comprehensive insights into future development priorities of China and its administrative regions, offering valuable guidance for promoting policy coherence and achieving systematic coordination of the SDGs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":309,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Impact Assessment Review","volume":"117 ","pages":"Article 108246"},"PeriodicalIF":11.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145412526","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-30DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108240
Shuang Yuan , Yu Wang , Lei Li , Mengtian Xue , Yuandong Zhao , Qiran Zhao , Shenggen Fan
Current dietary patterns in China pose challenges to both public health and environmental sustainability. Food price subsidies are widely recognized as effective tools to improve dietary quality, yet their environmental implications remain underexplored. Using household data from the Urban Household Survey (UHS, 2015) and the Fixed Observation Rural Survey (FORS, 2015 and 2021), this study estimates the price elasticities of 11 food categories with an EWL-QUAIDS model, and further evaluates the health and environmental effects of six targeted subsidy scenarios. Net changes in carbon emissions and DALYs are assessed by incorporating substitution and complementary effects captured by cross-price elasticities. Three policy optimization schemes are proposed: health-oriented, environment-oriented, and synergistic co-benefit schemes. The simulation results show that food subsidies in urban households fail to achieve synergistic co-benefits, whereas in rural households, soybean subsidies emerge as the only scenario delivering both health and environmental gains, with estimated health, carbon, and net benefits ranging from 0.21 to 15.51 CNY/capital/year under subsidy rates of 5 % to 50 % (e.g., 7.68, 0.95, and 8.55 CNY, respectively, at a 25 % subsidy rate). Subgroup analysis across household clusters confirms the broad applicability of the findings. Further simulations of 15 paired-subsidy scenarios indicate that combinations involving soybeans consistently play a central role in generating joint benefits in rural areas. These findings highlight the importance of explicitly integrating environmental considerations into food subsidy policies, adopt differentiated urban–rural strategies, and promoting targeted subsidies, particularly in rural areas, where soybean foods show strong potential to achieve synergistic health and environmental benefits and accelerate sustainable food system transitions.
{"title":"Achieving the synergy of health improvements and carbon emission reductions: can food price subsidy policies work in China?","authors":"Shuang Yuan , Yu Wang , Lei Li , Mengtian Xue , Yuandong Zhao , Qiran Zhao , Shenggen Fan","doi":"10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108240","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108240","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Current dietary patterns in China pose challenges to both public health and environmental sustainability. Food price subsidies are widely recognized as effective tools to improve dietary quality, yet their environmental implications remain underexplored. Using household data from the Urban Household Survey (UHS, 2015) and the Fixed Observation Rural Survey (FORS, 2015 and 2021), this study estimates the price elasticities of 11 food categories with an EWL-QUAIDS model, and further evaluates the health and environmental effects of six targeted subsidy scenarios. Net changes in carbon emissions and DALYs are assessed by incorporating substitution and complementary effects captured by cross-price elasticities. Three policy optimization schemes are proposed: health-oriented, environment-oriented, and synergistic co-benefit schemes. The simulation results show that food subsidies in urban households fail to achieve synergistic co-benefits, whereas in rural households, soybean subsidies emerge as the only scenario delivering both health and environmental gains, with estimated health, carbon, and net benefits ranging from 0.21 to 15.51 CNY/capital/year under subsidy rates of 5 % to 50 % (e.g., 7.68, 0.95, and 8.55 CNY, respectively, at a 25 % subsidy rate). Subgroup analysis across household clusters confirms the broad applicability of the findings. Further simulations of 15 paired-subsidy scenarios indicate that combinations involving soybeans consistently play a central role in generating joint benefits in rural areas. These findings highlight the importance of explicitly integrating environmental considerations into food subsidy policies, adopt differentiated urban–rural strategies, and promoting targeted subsidies, particularly in rural areas, where soybean foods show strong potential to achieve synergistic health and environmental benefits and accelerate sustainable food system transitions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":309,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Impact Assessment Review","volume":"117 ","pages":"Article 108240"},"PeriodicalIF":11.2,"publicationDate":"2025-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145412638","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-30DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2025.108245
Kamaldeen Mohammed , Daniel Kpienbaareh , Rachel Bezner Kerr , Jinfei Wang , Isaac Luginaah , Esther Lupafya , Laifolo Dakishoni , Mwapi Mkandawire
Forests play a vital role in supporting rural livelihoods by providing essential resources such as food, fuelwood, and medicine. Ensuring the sustainable utilization of these resources while balancing environmental protection requires a data-driven approach that integrates advanced technologies and local knowledge to inform forest management. This study synthesizes data from Participatory Geographic Information System (PGIS) of 66 forest plots and 1864 trees, multisource remote sensing (i.e., radar and optical) and explainable machine learning to assess forest provisioning supply for community forests management. Key findings from the inventory include the multifunctional roles of trees for medicinal, food and culinary uses. Vegetation Indices such as Transformed Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (TSAVI) and Normalized Difference Index 45 (NDI45) were identified as useful predictors of forest provisioning supply, capturing essential attributes of vegetation dynamics using random forest (R2 = 0.76, RMSE = 4.51). Radar-derived texture metrics were equally relevant and can be especially useful under challenging climatic conditions, such as persistent cloud covers. The Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and Partial Dependence Plots (PDP) revealed threshold relationships between Sentinel-2 indices and forest provisioning, with notable thresholds observed at NDI45 = 0.3 and TSAVI = 0.59. These thresholds signal possible ecological tipping points associated with forest health and productivity. Also, Independent Conditional Expectations (ICE) and Locally Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) provided site-specific explanations on the association between remote sensing indices and forests provisioning capacity, underscoring the spatial heterogeneity of forest ecosystems. The study fills an important research gap by providing a framework that integrates interpretable and explainable modelling with participatory geospatial methods, aiming to inform community-based forests management and support data-driven landscape and site-specific forest ecosystem management in the Miombo woodlands.
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