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Engineer-to-order Project Schedule Planning through a probabilistic simplified approach: a case study 通过概率简化方法进行工程师对订单项目进度计划:一个案例研究
Pub Date : 2019-12-13 DOI: 10.19255/JMPM02109
S. Salvatori, Vito Introna, V. Cesarotti, I. Baffo
Schedule management is a particularly important activity for companies that manage their business with an engineer-to-order approach. In many cases, especially in smaller enterprises, projects duration, estimated applying deterministic approaches or even referring to own experiences, are significantly inaccurate or overestimated. For these reasons, in this paper which is the extended version of a previous work presented at the Summer School “F. Turco”, authors propose an application of a probabilistic simplified approach on a case study comparing the results to those deriving from deterministic approaches and actual durations. Methodologies have been applied according to the sequence defined by Project Management Institute. To estimate activities durations both physical and statistical models have been used, instead entire projects duration has been calculated through critical path method. Results comparison shows that adopting a statistical approach leads to tolerable complications but allows to get more accurate estimations. Moreover, the possibility to consider most probable, optimistic and pessimistic duration allows enterprise to take into account potential risks that could delay project conclusion. This application is focused on a particular case study nevertheless conclusion could be common to many other organizations.
对于采用“工程师到订单”方法管理业务的公司来说,进度管理是一项特别重要的活动。在许多情况下,特别是在较小的企业中,应用确定性方法或甚至参考自己的经验进行估算的项目持续时间是非常不准确或高估的。由于这些原因,在这篇论文中,这是以前在暑期学校提出的工作的扩展版本。,作者在一个案例研究中提出了概率简化方法的应用,将结果与确定性方法和实际持续时间得出的结果进行比较。方法的应用是根据项目管理协会定义的顺序。为了估计活动持续时间,使用了物理模型和统计模型,而不是通过关键路径方法计算整个项目持续时间。结果比较表明,采用统计学方法可导致可容忍的并发症,但可以得到更准确的估计。此外,考虑最可能、最乐观和最悲观持续时间的可能性,使企业能够考虑到可能延迟项目完成的潜在风险。此应用程序侧重于特定的案例研究,但结论可能是许多其他组织的共同之处。
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引用次数: 0
A proposal for sorting a projects portfolio through the ELECTRE TRI method focused on the European strategy 通过ELECTRE TRI方法对项目组合进行分类的建议侧重于欧洲战略
Pub Date : 2019-12-13 DOI: 10.19255/JMPM02105
R. Micale, A. Giallanza, Gabriella Li Puma, G. L. Scalia
In recent years, the partnerships between private companies and public organizations are becoming key elements for improving local development, territorial competitiveness and for delivering innovation. These collaborations are widely promoted by the European Framework Programme for Research and Innovation thanks to the provision of several instruments, such as Horizon 2020. In this context, competitiveness’s improvement of the territory by means of research and innovation actions is supported by the technological districts. In Sicily, the AgroBioPesca district has attempted a strategic action named “Call for ideas” in order to design its own roadmap for research and innovation in agri-food sector. For this purpose, many proponents of public and/or private sectors presented several innovative project ideas referred to specific Technological Trajectories. This paper aims at providing an instrument able to select the most suitable project ideas in order to constitute the AgroBioPesca projects portfolio. To such an aim, the authors propose the application of the multiple criteria sorting method ELECTRE TRI considering criteria deduced by the Horizon 2020 guidelines and documents. The application of this methodology allows subdividing the project ideas received into project ideas to be rejected, reviewable and eligible for funding. Moreover, to consider the uncertainty of the decision makers’ judgment, the authors propose a new version of the method in which the crisp judgment is converted into an interval. A sensitivity analysis has lastly been conducted to study the weaknesses of non-financiable projects.
近年来,私营企业和公共机构之间的伙伴关系正成为促进地方发展、地区竞争力和提供创新的关键因素。这些合作得到了欧洲研究与创新框架计划(European Framework Programme for Research and Innovation)的广泛推广,这要归功于地平线2020等几个工具的提供。在这种情况下,通过研究和创新行动来提高领土的竞争力得到了技术区的支持。在西西里岛,AgroBioPesca区尝试了一项名为“创意征集”的战略行动,以便为农业食品部门的研究和创新设计自己的路线图。为此目的,许多公共和/或私营部门的支持者提出了若干涉及具体技术轨迹的创新项目想法。本文旨在提供一种工具,能够选择最合适的项目理念,以构成AgroBioPesca项目组合。为此,作者建议应用多重标准分类方法ELECTRE TRI,考虑到地平线2020指南和文件推断的标准。采用这种方法可以将收到的项目想法细分为可拒绝的、可审查的和有资格获得资助的项目想法。此外,为了考虑决策者判断的不确定性,作者提出了一种新的方法,将清晰的判断转换为区间。最后进行了敏感性分析,以研究非融资项目的弱点。
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引用次数: 3
Advanced Work Packaging in capital projects: a standardized model for EPC Contractors 资本项目中的先进工作打包:EPC承包商的标准化模型
Pub Date : 2019-12-13 DOI: 10.19255/JMPM02103
A. Calabrese, Marco Camaioni, Giovanni Piervincenzi
The international context in which the major EPC Contractors operate is going through a period of profound transformation. The increasing complexity of the plants, the increasing costs of labor, the increasingly binding contractual requirements, have forced companies around the world to adapt to these market laws and raise the level of competitiveness through targeted business strategies. The main EP&C realities, national leader in the Oil & Gas sector, are constantly moving towards new process management techniques. The following work fits into this context by analyzing and deepening the process of breaking down the scope of work into the so-called Work Packages according to the Advanced Work Packaging methodology. AWP envisages a prioritization of the work, initially agreed between the various disciplines, with the ultimate aim of increasing performance in terms of time, cost, quality and alignment of the three macro-phases: Engineering, Procurement and Construction. After a thorough research on the previous bibliography, we analyzed the current process of management and decomposition of the scope of work. The result is an AWP application model, which, through modifications to the current management processes, provides a quantitative calculation tool to assess the amount of construction work related to a plant. The proposal is also extended to the engineering and procurement phase. This completely standardized process has a general validity and has been demonstrated through the application of two main projects. In the final part, the procedure was extended to all the types of systems made by Tecnimont, further demonstrating the extreme versatility of the methodology.
主要EPC承包商的国际运营环境正在经历一个深刻的变革时期。工厂越来越复杂,劳动力成本越来越高,合同要求越来越有约束力,迫使世界各地的公司适应这些市场规律,并通过有针对性的商业战略提高竞争力水平。主要的EP&C公司,在石油和天然气领域处于全国领先地位,正在不断向新的过程管理技术发展。下面的工作通过分析和深化将工作范围分解为所谓的工作包的过程来适应这种情况,根据高级工作包方法。AWP设想了工作的优先次序,最初在各个学科之间达成一致,最终目标是在时间、成本、质量和三个宏观阶段(工程、采购和施工)的一致性方面提高绩效。在对之前的书目进行了深入的研究之后,我们分析了当前的流程管理和工作范围的分解。其结果是一个AWP应用模型,该模型通过对当前管理流程的修改,提供了一个定量计算工具来评估与工厂相关的建筑工程量。该建议还扩展到工程和采购阶段。这个完全标准化的过程具有普遍的有效性,并通过两个主要项目的应用得到了证明。在最后一部分中,该程序扩展到Tecnimont制造的所有类型的系统,进一步展示了该方法的极端多功能性。
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引用次数: 0
The suppliers’ selection process through Extended Fuzzy Cognitive Maps and the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution 基于扩展模糊认知图和理想解相似性偏好排序技术的供应商选择过程
Pub Date : 2019-12-13 DOI: 10.19255/JMPM02102
G. Mazzuto, L. Postacchini, F. Ciarapica, M. Bevilacqua
In recent times, supplier selection has become one of the most important and crucial activities for companies. In this study, using the extended fuzzy cognitive maps (E-FCM) and technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), a decision-making support system is realised to assist managers in this activity. E-FCM expresses a causal relationship among criteria, computing linguistic variables to describe a complex situation. The proposed system allows managers to conduct an a priori evaluation regarding supplier suitability, according to both company and market requirements. A panel of experts was formed, according to their expertise areas, to cover the entire problem domain and model it. The problem was investigated in terms of the factors identified by the experts, such as costs, delivery quality, organisational capability, supplier flexibility, service quality and supplied product quality. These factors were analysed using the TOPSIS approach to rank the suppliers, and the use of TOPSIS allows for discrimination of the E-FCM. This decision-making support system was applied to a real case scenario to test its functionality; in particular, an Italian shoes and accessories company. The TOPSIS ideal solutions were defined from two different points of view: based on the standard TOPSIS procedure and on specifics fixed by the company managers. The two approaches resulted in considerably different outcomes, highlighting the need to consider concepts related to company expectations in the E-FCM.
近年来,供应商选择已成为企业最重要、最关键的活动之一。在本研究中,利用扩展模糊认知图(E-FCM)和理想解决方案相似性偏好排序技术(TOPSIS),实现了一个决策支持系统,以协助管理者进行这项活动。E-FCM表达了标准之间的因果关系,计算语言变量来描述复杂的情况。拟议的系统允许管理人员根据公司和市场要求对供应商的适用性进行先验评估。根据他们的专业领域,组成了一个专家小组,以涵盖整个问题领域并对其建模。根据专家确定的因素,如成本、交付质量、组织能力、供应商灵活性、服务质量和供应产品质量,对问题进行了调查。使用TOPSIS方法对这些因素进行分析,对供应商进行排名,TOPSIS的使用允许对E-FCM进行区分。将该决策支持系统应用于实际案例场景,以测试其功能;尤其是一家意大利鞋和配饰公司。TOPSIS理想解决方案是从两个不同的角度定义的:基于标准的TOPSIS程序和公司经理确定的具体细节。这两种方法导致了相当不同的结果,突出了在E-FCM中考虑与公司期望相关的概念的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
A simulation approach for evaluating the impact of human behaviour on project scheduling 一种评估人类行为对项目进度影响的模拟方法
Pub Date : 2019-12-13 DOI: 10.19255/JMPM02107
A. Santolamazza, Vito Introna, V. Cesarotti, M. Benedetti
The increasing organizational complexity and competitiveness in industry is driving the interest in project management to ensure successful businesses. Uncertainty in estimating activities’ duration is one of the main criticalities of the planning phase, especially in the industrial environment, where most projects, such as the optimization or qualification of new lines, usually require the involvement of resources whose commitment is almost never bound to just one task. In this context, the impact of human behaviour if not properly considered, can lead to serious damage in terms of time and costs and these hidden risks need to be properly assessed. The present study aims to analyse and quantify the impact of human behaviours (as described by Parkinson’s Law, Student Syndrome and hidden safety) on the project in terms of delays in scheduled time though the use of a Monte Carlo simulation. The objective of the methodology is to provide the project manager with the insight required to consciously address the uncertainties of the scheduling phase in order to ensure the success of the project. In order to illustrate the methodology in a more comprehensive way, a case study regarding a project for the innovation of the production process in a real industrial plant is provided.
工业中日益增长的组织复杂性和竞争力正在推动对项目管理的兴趣,以确保成功的业务。估计活动持续时间的不确定性是规划阶段的主要关键之一,特别是在工业环境中,其中大多数项目,例如新生产线的优化或鉴定,通常需要资源的参与,这些资源的承诺几乎从不局限于一项任务。在这种情况下,如果不适当考虑人类行为的影响,可能在时间和成本方面造成严重损害,需要对这些隐藏的风险进行适当评估。本研究旨在通过使用蒙特卡洛模拟来分析和量化人类行为(如帕金森定律,学生综合症和隐藏安全所描述的)对项目计划时间延迟的影响。该方法的目标是为项目经理提供必要的洞察力,以有意识地解决进度阶段的不确定性,以确保项目的成功。为了以更全面的方式说明该方法,本文提供了一个关于实际工业工厂生产过程创新项目的案例研究。
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引用次数: 0
The evolution of Project Management (PM): How Agile, Lean and Six Sigma are changing PM 项目管理的演变:敏捷、精益和六西格玛如何改变项目管理
Pub Date : 2019-12-13 DOI: 10.19255/JMPM02108
Silvia Gubinelli, V. Cesarotti, Vito Introna
The pressure for speed, technical or design complexity increase interactions and high complexity of projects. Conventional techniques quickly become inadequate. The literature of the last twenty years about project management (PM), suggests that the evolution of PM Techniques will be driven by theories from Operational Excellence (OE). The OE technique, as Lean, Agile and Six Sigma, grows the awareness that reducing variation in workflow allows both time and cost to be reduced. OE approaches and tools enriches PM techniques and proposes the way to reduce wastes and add value in their project performance culture by encouraging teams to work together in a more transparent and collaborative way, facilitating the effective project deployment and organization for minimizing resources, costs, durations and risks. This contamination would make PM techniques be more effective in managing current projects, where the context affects the weight-cost-quality triangle. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the contamination of Lean, Agile and Six Sigma in the traditional approach to project management. This paper highlights how the traditional approaches to PM suggest the steps to carry out, while the techniques acquired by operational excellence (as Lean, Agile and Six Sigma) give suggestions on “how” to perform the steps proposed. The merging of the different techniques, based on the context characteristics, seems a concrete answer to the current problems of the PM.
速度、技术或设计复杂性的压力增加了项目的交互和高复杂性。传统的技术很快就会变得不够用。过去二十年关于项目管理(PM)的文献表明,项目管理技术的发展将受到卓越运营(OE)理论的推动。OE技术,像精益、敏捷和六西格玛一样,逐渐意识到减少工作流程中的变化可以减少时间和成本。OE方法和工具丰富了PM技术,并提出了通过鼓励团队以更透明和协作的方式一起工作来减少浪费和增加项目绩效文化价值的方法,促进了有效的项目部署和组织,以最小化资源、成本、持续时间和风险。这种污染将使PM技术在管理当前项目中更加有效,在当前项目中,环境会影响重量-成本-质量三角关系。本文的目的是评估精益、敏捷和六西格玛在传统项目管理方法中的污染。本文强调了传统的项目管理方法是如何建议要执行的步骤的,而通过卓越运营获得的技术(如精益、敏捷和六西格玛)则给出了“如何”执行所建议的步骤的建议。基于上下文特征的不同技术的合并,似乎是对当前项目管理问题的具体回答。
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引用次数: 7
Project monitoring by dynamic statistical control charts 项目监控采用动态统计控制图
Pub Date : 2019-12-13 DOI: 10.19255/JMPM02106
G. Galante, C. M. L. Fata, G. Passannanti
Project monitoring activities are fundamental to assure a timely identification of unacceptable deviations from the baseline, so that corrective actions may be taken to bring the project back in line with its objectives. In regard to this, the most used approach is the Earned Value Management (EVM) technique whose traditional metrics do not allow to discriminate between acceptable and unacceptable performance variations. With this recognition, a statistical approach based on the use of dynamic Shewhart’s and CUmulative SUM (CUSUM) control charts is proposed in the present paper to deal with the project monitoring problem. Its efficaciousness is demonstrated by its application to a set of real projects.
项目监测活动是确保及时识别不可接受的基线偏差的基础,以便采取纠正行动,使项目回到与其目标一致的水平。关于这一点,最常用的方法是挣值管理(EVM)技术,其传统度量不允许区分可接受和不可接受的性能变化。基于这一认识,本文提出了一种基于动态Shewhart和累积SUM (CUSUM)控制图的统计方法来处理项目监控问题。通过对一组实际工程的应用,证明了该方法的有效性。
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引用次数: 1
Globalization, the New Economy and Project Management: a Graph Theory Perspective 全球化、新经济与项目管理:图论视角
Pub Date : 2019-10-16 DOI: 10.19255/JMPM508
Janice Jeffs, B. Papillon
Satisfaction of human needs requires resources, tangible ones, metals, machineries and less tangible ones like human time and human capital. Specialization creates a distance between resources and needs. Industrialization and its successor, globalization, have kept increasing this distance, along its geographical dimension, but also along its organizational dimension. Specialization poses numerous challenges: information collection, coordination, communication, motivation, enforcement. Since early industrialization transformation of the artisan shop, firms are the main response to these challenges. Firms have devoted an increasing amount of human resources to management tasks over the last century. An avenue to account for the growing popularity of PM among firms under globalization is to show how PM approach can be, in some context, a more economical way to organize management tasks than traditional business management. The paper presents, first, the hypothesis in a historical perspective, using a concept of distance from theory of value and transaction cost analysis. This translates management tasks into costs but lacks preciseness. From another perspective, a structured set of management tasks is a graph connecting a pool of resources in some location(s) with things fulfilling needs elsewhere. The hypothesis becomes one about the properties of the graphs, such as the relative duration of the critical path, of the PM and other approaches to meeting some of the challenges, for instance coordination, raised by specialization. The paper then explores ways to bring preciseness with graph theory applications to management at operational and organizational levels, emphasizing PM.
满足人类的需求需要资源,有形的资源,金属,机器和无形的资源,如人力时间和人力资本。专业化在资源和需求之间制造了距离。工业化和它的后继者——全球化,在地理维度上,也在组织维度上,不断扩大这一距离。专业化带来了许多挑战:信息收集、协调、沟通、激励、执行。工业化早期以来工匠作坊的转型,是企业应对这些挑战的主要方式。在上个世纪,企业投入了越来越多的人力资源来完成管理任务。解释项目管理在全球化下的公司中日益流行的一个途径是,展示项目管理方法在某些情况下是如何比传统的企业管理更经济地组织管理任务的。本文首先从历史的角度,运用价值理论和交易成本分析的距离概念,提出了这一假设。这将管理任务转化为成本,但缺乏精确性。从另一个角度来看,一组结构化的管理任务是将某些位置的资源池与其他地方满足需求的事物连接起来的图。假设变成了一个关于图的属性的假设,例如关键路径的相对持续时间,PM和其他方法来满足一些挑战,例如协调,由专业化提出。然后,本文探讨了将图论应用的精确性引入到运营和组织层面的管理的方法,强调了项目管理。
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引用次数: 1
Managing tensions and paradoxes between stakeholders in a complex project context: Case study and model proposal 管理复杂项目环境中涉众之间的紧张关系和矛盾:案例研究和模型建议
Pub Date : 2019-10-16 DOI: 10.19255/JMPM02012
François Labelle, Aliénor de Rouffignac, P. Lemire, C. Bredillet, S. Barnabé
Stakeholder (SH) management has recently undertaken a turn from the traditional management "of" to managing "for" and "with" SH. Relating to this relational trend, identification and management tensions between SH is an important area of study. Indeed, from how to live with and/or resolve or not those tensions depends the possibility of building the most beneficial cooperation possible between SH for the continuation of the project, to obtain win-win results, and promote shared value and common good. For this purpose, a theoretical model is suggested, based on the approaches of paradoxes and conventionalist economy of worth, supporting the identification of tensions between SH and their justifications, and the clarification it helps to bring as to win-win or shared value outcomes, or the absence of such, in the context of a complex project. The suggested model is then used in an exploratory case study. The goal is to assess its relevance, usefulness and quality. Two theoretical contributions emerge from the data analysed: 1) several tensions  over various categories (allegiance, dimensional, temporal, learning, performance and spatial) can draw on the same justifications (rationale that oppose industrial and domestic conventions); 2) a prioritization of tension categories can make it easier to resolve them.
利益相关者(SH)管理最近开始从传统的“对”管理转向“为”和“与”SH管理。与这种关系趋势相关,SH之间的识别和管理紧张关系是一个重要的研究领域。事实上,从如何处理和/或解决这些紧张关系,取决于是否有可能在SH之间建立最有利的合作,以使项目继续下去,获得双赢的结果,促进共享价值和共同利益。为此,基于悖论和传统价值经济学的方法,提出了一个理论模型,支持识别SH及其理由之间的紧张关系,并澄清它有助于在复杂项目的背景下带来双赢或共享价值结果,或缺乏这样的结果。然后将建议的模型用于探索性案例研究。目标是评估其相关性、有用性和质量。从分析的数据中产生了两个理论贡献:1)不同类别(忠诚、维度、时间、学习、表现和空间)的几种紧张关系可以利用相同的理由(反对工业和家庭惯例的理由);2)对紧张类别进行优先排序可以使它们更容易解决。
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引用次数: 3
Using Patterns to Capture and Transfer Tacit Knowledge in Virtual Project Teams 在虚拟项目团队中使用模式获取和转移隐性知识
Pub Date : 2019-10-16 DOI: 10.19255/JMPM02002
S. Kögl, Gilbert Silvius
As companies are globalizing, projects involving people from multiple locations are more common. Personal interaction between team members in such virtual project teams is limited in several ways. One of the functions of personal interaction in projects is the transfer of knowledge. While explicit knowledge can be shared in written form, tacit knowledge is usually shared through personal interaction. The limited personal interaction in virtual teams therefore provides constraints for the exchange of tacit knowledge. The pattern method is a way of capturing and encoding tacit knowledge in a structured written form. This chapter reports a study that tested the applicability of the pattern method for the capturing and transferring of tacit knowledge in virtual project teams.  In a quasi-experiment, the study evaluated how this method compares to unstructured email communication for the purpose of tacit knowledge transfer. The participants generally preferred reading patterns over unstructured text and preferred the pattern method in situations that were more formalized and structured.
随着公司的全球化,涉及多个地点人员的项目更加常见。在这样的虚拟项目团队中,团队成员之间的个人互动在几个方面受到限制。项目中人际互动的功能之一是知识的传递。显性知识可以以书面形式共享,隐性知识通常通过个人互动共享。因此,虚拟团队中有限的个人互动为隐性知识的交换提供了约束。模式方法是一种以结构化的书面形式捕获和编码隐性知识的方法。本章报告了一项研究,该研究测试了模式方法在虚拟项目团队中获取和转移隐性知识的适用性。在准实验中,本研究评估了该方法与非结构化电子邮件沟通在隐性知识转移方面的比较。与非结构化文本相比,参与者通常更喜欢阅读模式,而在更正式和结构化的情况下,他们更喜欢使用模式方法。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
The Journal of Modern Project Management
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