Food Policy最新文献

英文中文

The use of crop diversification in agricultural yield insurance products 农作物多样化在农业产量保险产品中的应用

IF 6.8 1区经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY

Food Policy

Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102905

Jonas Schmitt , Frank Offermann , Robert Finger

Crop production is exposed to many sources of biotic and abiotic risks, such as extreme weather, pests, and diseases. Crop diversification and crop insurance are both important risk management strategies for farmers. The two strategies are usually considered separately. Here, we propose to exploit potential synergies by including crop diversification in multiple crop yield insurance designs. We provide an ex-ante analysis to compare multiple-yield insurance, which covers the different crops together as a bundle, with single-yield insurances. To this end, we use historical farm-level yield observations for winter wheat, winter barley, winter rapeseed, sugar beet and grain maize in German agriculture (N = 113,463 historical farm-level yield observations during 1995–2019) and assess the implications for risk reduction, fair insurance premiums, and expected utility. In our analysis, we refer to the area-weighted and price-weighted revenues as the underlying for both insurance scenarios. We show that multiple-yield insurance is particularly attractive for highly risk-exposed farms because multiple-yield insurance has lower fair insurance premiums compared to insuring each crop separately. Moreover, the certainty equivalents in the multiple-yield insurance scenario are often higher than those in the single-yield insurances scenario, especially when the premium loadings are high. In addition, the fact that broader crop rotations and diversification are rewarded with lower premiums under multiple-yield insurance offers the potential to combine the overarching policy goals of agricultural risk management and diversification of agricultural landscapes.

作物生产面临许多生物和非生物风险来源，如极端天气、病虫害。作物多样化和作物保险都是农民重要的风险管理策略。这两种策略通常是分开考虑的。在这里，我们建议通过在多种作物产量保险设计中包括作物多样化来利用潜在的协同效应。我们提供了一个事前分析来比较多产量保险，它涵盖了不同的作物一起作为一个束，与单产量保险。为此，我们使用德国农业中冬小麦、冬大麦、冬油菜籽、甜菜和谷物玉米的历史农场水平产量观测数据（N = 113,463 1995-2019年的历史农场水平产量观测数据），并评估风险降低、公平保险费和预期效用的影响。在我们的分析中，我们将地区加权和价格加权收入作为两种保险情景的基础。我们表明，多产量保险对高风险农场特别有吸引力，因为与分别为每种作物投保相比，多产量保险的公平保险费较低。此外，多收益保险情景中的确定性等价物通常高于单收益保险情景，特别是当保费负担较高时。此外，在多产量保险下，更广泛的作物轮作和多样化可以获得较低的保费，这一事实提供了将农业风险管理和农业景观多样化的总体政策目标结合起来的潜力。

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引用次数: 0

Climate shocks, household food security and welfare in Afghanistan 气候冲击、阿富汗家庭粮食安全和福利问题

IF 6.8 1区经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY

Food Policy

Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102910

Hayatullah Ahmadzai , Oliver Morrissey

Exposure to natural disasters in Afghanistan, notably flooding and other shocks exacerbated by climate change, poses a growing concern given the vulnerability of households to poverty and food insecurity. This paper uses two household surveys (2011/12 and 2013/14) to assess the effects of climate shocks (especially floods) on food security and welfare of agricultural households, allowing also for conflict and price shocks. We evaluate the impacts of shocks on several indicators of food security and household welfare comparing affected to non-affected households. The analysis is based on endogenous switching regressions (ESR) and propensity score matching (PSM) allowing for selection bias and addressing endogeneity. Floods are the main shock and have significant adverse effects on food security and welfare indicators. Affected households are likely to experience food diversity reduced from acceptable to moderate, increased food coping stress and two-thirds could be pushed from little to moderate or greater hunger. The estimated average treatment effect in 2013–14 implies a decrease of about a third in food consumption expenditures, with similar reductions in household income and farm revenue. The findings highlight the need for better disaster risk reduction and planning strategies to support affected populations to respond to and recover from climate shocks.

鉴于阿富汗家庭易受贫困和粮食不安全的影响，阿富汗面临的自然灾害，特别是因气候变化而加剧的洪水和其他冲击，日益令人担忧。本文使用两次家庭调查（2011/12和2013/14）来评估气候冲击（特别是洪水）对农户粮食安全和福利的影响，同时考虑冲突和价格冲击。我们评估了冲击对食品安全和家庭福利的几个指标的影响，并将受影响的家庭与未受影响的家庭进行了比较。分析基于内生转换回归（ESR）和倾向评分匹配（PSM），允许选择偏差和解决内生性。洪水是主要冲击，对粮食安全和福利指标有重大不利影响。受影响家庭的食物多样性可能会从可接受减少到中等程度，粮食应对压力增加，三分之二的家庭可能会从很少挨饿变成中等或更严重的饥饿。2013-14年估计的平均治疗效果意味着食品消费支出减少约三分之一，家庭收入和农业收入也有类似的减少。研究结果强调需要更好地减少灾害风险和规划战略，以支持受影响人口应对和从气候冲击中恢复过来。

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引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “Assessing the social risk of high-protein food alternatives using the social life cycle assessment” [Food Policy 134 (2025) 102894] “利用社会生命周期评估评估高蛋白食物替代品的社会风险”[食物政策134(2025)102894]的勘误表

IF 6.8 1区经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY

Food Policy

Pub Date : 2025-06-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102906

Cecere Giuseppe , Azarkamand Sahar , Bala Alba , Sazdovski Ilija , Fullana-i-Palmer Pere , Rigamonti Lucia

引用次数: 0

Resilient food security information systems in the age of disruption: An ecosystem approach 颠覆时代的弹性粮食安全信息系统：生态系统方法

IF 6.8 1区经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY

Food Policy

Pub Date : 2025-06-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102908

Nathan Morrow , Daniel Maxwell , Nancy B. Mock , Nicholas Haan , Neil K. Marsland , Erin Lentz

Food security information systems (FSIS) face unprecedented threats from abrupt shifts in political and funding priorities, misinformation, and manipulation. We draw on 50 years of research in Food Policy and the broader FSIS literature to offer five resilience characteristics to guide development of a future-fit FSIS: (1) safeguard integrity and impartiality; (2) ensure independent and transparent governance; (3) optimize data and analysis value streams for decision-making; (4) break down sectoral barriers for holistic food security characterization; and (5) innovate responsibly while embedding accountability and learning. We suggest recommended actions based on these resilience characteristics to co-create a more resilient FSIS ecosystem to guide humanitarian responses, advance preventive action for acute crises, and efficiently deliver results.

粮食安全信息系统（FSIS）面临着政治和资金重点突然转变、错误信息和操纵等前所未有的威胁。我们借鉴了50年的粮食政策研究和更广泛的FSIS文献，提出了五个弹性特征，以指导未来FSIS的发展：(1)维护完整性和公正性；(2)确保独立、透明的治理；(3)优化数据，分析价值流进行决策；(4)打破行业壁垒，实现粮食安全的整体表征；(5)负责任地创新，同时嵌入问责制和学习。我们提出基于这些韧性特征的行动建议，共同创建更具韧性的金融安全信息系统生态系统，以指导人道主义应对，推进针对严重危机的预防行动，并有效取得成果。

引用次数: 0

Does health-risk information increase the acceptability of a meat tax and meat free days? Experimental evidence from three European countries 健康风险信息是否增加了肉类税和无肉日的可接受性？来自三个欧洲国家的实验证据

IF 6.8 1区经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY

Food Policy

Pub Date : 2025-06-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102903

Abigail Alexander-Haw , Joachim Schleich , Josephine Tröger

This paper examines how health-risk information related to meat consumption affects individual acceptability of a meat tax and mandatory meat-free days in canteens. Analyses draw on a representative survey including a randomised provision of health-risk information to approximately 2,000 individuals in France, Italy, and Latvia. Findings of multivariate analyses do not provide convincing evidence that the health-risk information enhances the acceptability of meat taxes and meat-free days. This finding is robust to a variety of robustness checks. Explorative heterogeneity analyses provide some suggestive evidence that providing health-risk information increases the acceptability of the policies for certain subgroups, but only in specific countries. Correlational results suggest that the acceptability of a meat tax and meat-free days is generally higher if individuals consider them to be less expensive, more effective, and fairer. Finally, the findings provide some limited evidence that acceptability of these policies is lower for individuals who are vulnerable to food insecurity.

本文研究了与肉类消费相关的健康风险信息如何影响个人对肉类税和强制性食堂无肉日的可接受性。分析基于一项有代表性的调查，其中包括对法国、意大利和拉脱维亚约2000人随机提供的健康风险信息。多变量分析的结果并没有提供令人信服的证据表明，健康风险信息提高了肉类税和无肉日的可接受性。这一发现对各种稳健性检查是稳健性的。探索性异质性分析提供了一些启发性证据，表明提供健康风险信息可提高某些亚群体对政策的可接受性，但仅限于特定国家。相关结果表明，如果人们认为肉类税和无肉日更便宜、更有效、更公平，那么人们对它们的接受度通常更高。最后，研究结果提供了一些有限的证据，表明易受粮食不安全影响的个人对这些政策的接受程度较低。

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引用次数: 0

Index-based Livestock insurance to support pastoralists against droughts 以指数为基础的牲畜保险，支持牧民抵御干旱

IF 6.8 1区经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY

Food Policy

Pub Date : 2025-06-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102909

Nathaniel Jensen , Christopher Barrett , Andrew Mude , Rupsha Banerjee , Yuma Noritomo , Kelvin Shikuku , Kazushi Takahashi , Nils Teufel

Policy Comments do not include an abstract. (https://www.sciencedirect.com/special-issue/311580/call-for-policy-comments-for-food-policy).

政策评论不包括摘要。(https://www.sciencedirect.com/special-issue/311580/call-for-policy-comments-for-food-policy)。

引用次数: 0

The used cooking oil dilemma: Feedstock competitiveness, certification integrity, and U.S. biofuel policy 二手食用油困境：原料竞争力、认证完整性和美国生物燃料政策

IF 6.8 1区经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY

Food Policy

Pub Date : 2025-06-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102907

Sandro Steinbach

引用次数: 0

Effects of school meals on nutrition: Evidence from the start of the school year 学校膳食对营养的影响：从学年开始的证据

IF 6.8 1区经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY

Food Policy

Pub Date : 2025-06-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102901

Marianne Bitler , Janet Currie , Hilary Hoynes , Krista Ruffini , Lisa Schulkind , Barton Willage

Free and reduced-price school lunches are available in nearly all public and some private schools, and most of these schools also offer the School Breakfast Program. Children’s eligibility for these programs is conditioned on having low income. An existing literature documents the effects of school meals and school meal nutrition standards on child outcomes, yet causal evidence on how this program affects nutritional intake is still lacking. We compare nutritional intake between the periods just before and just after the school year begins for children likely to be eligible for free school meals (incomes under 200% of the poverty guideline) versus students unlikely to be eligible for or participate in the program (incomes above 200% of the poverty guideline), using granular data we collected about school year start dates. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find access to school meals reduces caloric intake, driven by a reduction in soda consumption for younger children, and a reduction in total fat intake for older children. Given increasing obesity among school children and the specific ways that calories are reduced, these findings likely represent improvements in students’ diets. We do not find any statistically significant effects on food insecurity or any spillover effects onto mothers’ consumption or time spent on food activities, which suggests these effects come from changes in children’s access to school meals and not from other differences between the academic year and summer for school meal eligible vs. higher income families. These results suggest school meals programs can improve nutritional intake, and policymakers should consider this benefit when considering changes to availability such as expanding or reforming universal free meals programs.

几乎所有的公立学校和一些私立学校都提供免费和减价的学校午餐，其中大多数学校还提供学校早餐计划。孩子们是否有资格参加这些项目取决于他们的收入是否低。现有文献记录了学校膳食和学校膳食营养标准对儿童预后的影响，但关于该计划如何影响营养摄入的因果证据仍然缺乏。我们使用我们收集的有关学年开始日期的细粒度数据，比较了可能有资格享受免费校餐的儿童（收入低于贫困指导标准的200%）与不太可能有资格或参与该计划的学生（收入高于贫困指导标准的200%）在开学前后的营养摄入量。使用差异中的差异方法，我们发现，由于年龄较小的儿童减少了苏打水的摄入量，而年龄较大的儿童减少了总脂肪摄入量，因此获得学校膳食可以减少热量摄入。鉴于在校儿童中肥胖症的增加以及减少卡路里的具体方法，这些发现可能代表了学生饮食的改善。我们没有发现对食品不安全的任何统计显著影响，也没有发现对母亲消费或食品活动时间的任何溢出效应，这表明这些影响来自儿童获得校餐的机会的变化，而不是来自学年和夏季校餐资格与高收入家庭之间的其他差异。这些结果表明，学校供餐计划可以改善营养摄入，政策制定者在考虑扩大或改革普遍免费供餐计划等可获得性的变化时应考虑到这一好处。

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引用次数: 0

Uncovering the World Food Program’s economic footprint in East Africa 揭露世界粮食计划署在东非的经济足迹

IF 6.8 1区经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY

Food Policy

Pub Date : 2025-06-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102896

Erwin Corong , Justin Kagin , Dominique van der Mensbrugghe , Siddharth Krishnaswamy , Arif Husain , Kennedy Nnanga , Cinzia Monetta , Krishna Pahari , J. Edward Taylor

We use general-equilibrium modelling methods to estimate the “economic footprint” of the operations of a major international development agency on the national and regional economies in which it operates. We find that each dollar spent by the United Nations World Food Program (WFP) Regional Bureau of Nairobi (RBN) operations increases the total value of production in the East African region by as much as $2.30 and regional real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) by up to $1.42. There are large variations across countries. For example, real-income effects range from $3.68 in Uganda to −$2.38 in Eritrea. WFP-RBN spending adds up to 20,047 year-round equivalent jobs for skilled workers and 365,606 jobs for unskilled workers in East Africa. Though not a focus of this study, we show that WFP RBN cash-based transfers to households add to these impacts. To our knowledge, this is the first effort to rigorously document the economy-wide impacts of the operations of a major development actor.

我们使用一般均衡建模方法来估计一个主要国际发展机构的业务对其所在国家和区域经济的“经济足迹”。我们发现，联合国世界粮食计划署（WFP）内罗毕区域局（RBN）每花费一美元，就能使东非地区的生产总值增加多达2.30美元，区域实际（经通胀调整的）国内生产总值（GDP）增加多达1.42美元。各国之间存在很大差异。例如，实际收入效应从乌干达的3.68美元到厄立特里亚的- 2.38美元不等。在东非，粮食计划署- rbn的支出总计为熟练工人提供了20,047个相当于全年的工作岗位，为非技术工人提供了365,606个工作岗位。虽然不是本研究的重点，但我们表明，世界粮食计划署向家庭提供的RBN现金转移增加了这些影响。据我们所知，这是第一次严谨地记录一个主要发展参与者的运作对整个经济的影响。

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引用次数: 0

What is the magnitude of risk exposure in China’s bioeconomic supply chains? 中国生物经济供应链的风险暴露程度有多大？

IF 6.8 1区经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY

Food Policy

Pub Date : 2025-06-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102900

Huixian Cheng, Hailong Cai, Xiuqing Wang

The stability of bioeconomic supply chains is crucial for both national security and environmental sustainability. This study adopts a global supply chain perspective and primarily utilizes the Import Side of Foreign Production Exposure (FPEM) indicator to assess the risk exposure of China’s bioeconomy, based on data from the OECD ICIO tables. The findings indicate that the overall levels of domestic and foreign risk exposure across various sectors of China’s bioeconomy are relatively high, which makes it more vulnerable to supply chain disruptions than the U.S. and the EU. However, the proportion of foreign risk exposure in China’s bioeconomic sectors remains relatively modest, ranging from approximately 7% to 12%. Moreover, the look through foreign risk exposure of China’s bioeconomy consistently exceeds its face value foreign risk exposure, suggesting that certain foreign supply chain risks may be concealed. Notably, the Agriculture sector shows the most significant increase in look through foreign risk exposure, implying a gradual rise in potential risks. While the hidden foreign risk exposure in the Food sector demonstrates relatively low volatility, its underlying external dependencies remain a critical concern that should not be underestimated. Additionally, our research shows that the U.S. and China are each other’s largest actual foreign suppliers of intermediate inputs in the bioeconomy. This study not only provides critical insights for the risk management of China’s bioeconomic supply chains but also offers valuable lessons and implications for the security and sustainable development of global bioeconomic supply chains. Food policy implications are also discussed.

生物经济供应链的稳定性对国家安全和环境可持续性都至关重要。本研究采用全球供应链视角，基于经合组织ICIO数据表，主要利用进口侧外国生产风险敞口（FPEM）指标评估中国生物经济的风险敞口。研究结果表明，中国生物经济各部门的国内外风险暴露总体水平相对较高，这使得中国比美国和欧盟更容易受到供应链中断的影响。然而，中国生物经济领域的境外风险敞口比例仍然相对较低，约为7%至12%。此外，中国生物经济对外风险敞口的透视一直超过其对外风险敞口的面值，这表明某些对外供应链风险可能被掩盖了。值得注意的是，农业部门的境外风险敞口增幅最大，这意味着潜在风险逐步上升。虽然食品部门隐藏的外国风险暴露显示出相对较低的波动性，但其潜在的外部依赖性仍然是一个不应低估的关键问题。此外，我们的研究表明，美国和中国互为生物经济中间投入的最大实际外国供应国。本研究不仅为中国生物经济供应链的风险管理提供了重要的见解，也为全球生物经济供应链的安全和可持续发展提供了宝贵的经验和启示。还讨论了粮食政策的影响。

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