Pub Date : 2025-09-18DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102953
Xiao Dong , Anne T. Byrne , Alana Rhone , Michele Ver Ploeg
The local food retail environment—or the stores, restaurants and other vendors where households acquire the majority of their food—has long been of interest to researchers and policy makers who care about the connections between it and household outcomes like diet, health, and consumer welfare. The local food retail environment, its characteristics and household outcomes are jointly determined by household and firm decisions through complex economic interactions, making it often difficult to parse out causality and important to have clear, shared definitions. This article highlights, reviews, synthesizes, and discusses current research on the complex economic relationships between households and the local food retail environment. We dedicate extra attention to a discussion and review of the economics behind understanding the association between market concentration and food outcomes of interest. Moreover, we discuss the necessity of understanding these relationships for impactful research and improved policy making.
{"title":"Review: untangling the complex economics of the local food retail environment","authors":"Xiao Dong , Anne T. Byrne , Alana Rhone , Michele Ver Ploeg","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102953","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102953","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The local food retail environment—or the stores, restaurants and other vendors where households acquire the majority of their food—has long been of interest to researchers and policy makers who care about the connections between it and household outcomes like diet, health, and consumer welfare. The local food retail environment, its characteristics and household outcomes are jointly determined by household and firm decisions through complex economic interactions, making it often difficult to parse out causality and important to have clear, shared definitions. This article highlights, reviews, synthesizes, and discusses current research on the complex economic relationships between households and the local food retail environment. We dedicate extra attention to a discussion and review of the economics behind understanding the association between market concentration and food outcomes of interest. Moreover, we discuss the necessity of understanding these relationships for impactful research and improved policy making.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"137 ","pages":"Article 102953"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145095298","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-17DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102965
Junpeng Li , Wanglin Ma , Bowen Shen , Longwei Li
Enhancing food security while reducing pesticide use is central to sustainable agricultural development. Mountainous regions, characterized by fragile ecosystems and intensive pesticide use, present a major challenge. This study investigates how the adoption of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) affects pesticide expenditure and rice yields in such regions, using data from 520 rice growers in Yunnan province, China. Employing a conditional mixed process model, we find that UAV adoption reduces pesticide expenditure by 77.3 yuan/mu and increases rice yields by 196.9 kg/mu. Disaggregated analyses reveal that the pesticide reduction effect due to UAV adoption is more pronounced among farmers with smaller landholdings and those cultivating fertile soil. Rice farmers cultivating large and fertile farmland receive more yield improvement from using UAVs for pesticide application. Quantile regression further indicates that the positive impacts of UAV adoption are greater among farmers with higher initial pesticide use and yields. Moreover, a higher intensity of UAV use is significantly associated with lower pesticide costs and greater rice output. These findings suggest that policies should promote UAV adoption and support deeper integration into farming practices to maximize environmental and productivity gains. Targeted subsidies, training programs, and financial incentives—especially for smallholder farmers in mountainous regions—can accelerate adoption and ensure equitable access. Moreover, fostering local UAV service providers and strengthening rural infrastructure can further enhance the efficiency and scalability of precision agriculture in challenging terrains.
{"title":"Can unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) adoption reduce pesticide use and enhance yields? Evidence from mountainous rice farming in Yunnan, China","authors":"Junpeng Li , Wanglin Ma , Bowen Shen , Longwei Li","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102965","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102965","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Enhancing food security while reducing pesticide use is central to sustainable agricultural development. Mountainous regions, characterized by fragile ecosystems and intensive pesticide use, present a major challenge. This study investigates how the adoption of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) affects pesticide expenditure and rice yields in such regions, using data from 520 rice growers in Yunnan province, China. Employing a conditional mixed process model, we find that UAV adoption reduces pesticide expenditure by 77.3 yuan/mu and increases rice yields by 196.9 kg/mu. Disaggregated analyses reveal that the pesticide reduction effect due to UAV adoption is more pronounced among farmers with smaller landholdings and those cultivating fertile soil. Rice farmers cultivating large and fertile farmland receive more yield improvement from using UAVs for pesticide application. Quantile regression further indicates that the positive impacts of UAV adoption are greater among farmers with higher initial pesticide use and yields. Moreover, a higher intensity of UAV use is significantly associated with lower pesticide costs and greater rice output. These findings suggest that policies should promote UAV adoption and support deeper integration into farming practices to maximize environmental and productivity gains. Targeted subsidies, training programs, and financial incentives—especially for smallholder farmers in mountainous regions—can accelerate adoption and ensure equitable access. Moreover, fostering local UAV service providers and strengthening rural infrastructure can further enhance the efficiency and scalability of precision agriculture in challenging terrains.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"136 ","pages":"Article 102965"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145096159","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-16DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102950
Jordan W. Jones , Reem Hashad
From 2020 to 2023, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits were supplemented by emergency allotments (EA) which, unlike regular benefits, were larger for SNAP households with higher net income. Several states ended EA issuance early before a nationwide expiration in early 2023, resulting in sharp monthly benefit reductions. We employ a staggered difference-in-differences approach to estimate the impacts of benefit reductions resulting from EA expiration on SNAP participation rates, investigating the roles of changing initial application and recertification rates in explaining these impacts, suggesting underlying changes in the returns to participation and household decision-making. We also employ interaction models to examine how impacts differed with income, extending these models to further investigate the role of income in EA expiration’s impacts on food insufficiency. Results indicate that early EA expiration reduced the SNAP participation rate by 1.48 percentage points on average. This reduction grew over time following expiration and was driven by a reduction in the number of initial applications to SNAP. Further, we estimate that reductions in SNAP participation were concentrated among relatively higher-income households who would have experienced larger reductions in benefit levels. We estimate a 3.10 percentage point increase in food insufficiency among households with income below the federal poverty level, and we find no corresponding evidence of increases for relatively higher-income households.
{"title":"The impacts of SNAP benefit reductions on participation: Evidence from emergency allotment expirations","authors":"Jordan W. Jones , Reem Hashad","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102950","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102950","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>From 2020 to 2023, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits were supplemented by emergency allotments (EA) which, unlike regular benefits, were larger for SNAP households with higher net income. Several states ended EA issuance early before a nationwide expiration in early 2023, resulting in sharp monthly benefit reductions. We employ a staggered difference-in-differences approach to estimate the impacts of benefit reductions resulting from EA expiration on SNAP participation rates, investigating the roles of changing initial application and recertification rates in explaining these impacts, suggesting underlying changes in the returns to participation and household decision-making. We also employ interaction models to examine how impacts differed with income, extending these models to further investigate the role of income in EA expiration’s impacts on food insufficiency. Results indicate that early EA expiration reduced the SNAP participation rate by 1.48 percentage points on average. This reduction grew over time following expiration and was driven by a reduction in the number of initial applications to SNAP. Further, we estimate that reductions in SNAP participation were concentrated among relatively higher-income households who would have experienced larger reductions in benefit levels. We estimate a 3.10 percentage point increase in food insufficiency among households with income below the federal poverty level, and we find no corresponding evidence of increases for relatively higher-income households.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"136 ","pages":"Article 102950"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145096160","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate change is forcing farmers worldwide to adopt more resilient crop varieties, but optimizing the yields of these varieties often requires new farming practices. We study whether hybrid agricultural extension can increase farmers’ knowledge and adoption of key practices needed to maximize the productivity of a pathogen-resistant hybrid oil palm variety in the Ecuadorian Amazon. Using a randomized field experiment involving palm farmers in two provinces, we test the separate and joint effects of in-person field days and personalized digital nudges. We find that field days and digital nudges are substitutes for improving farmers’ knowledge but affect digital engagement differently: In-person training raises engagement with sequential learning content, while digital nudges increase attention to specific, actionable information. Crucially, only in-person training leads to significant adoption of pollination practices and increased hybrid palm area. Our findings highlight both the promise and limits of digital-only extension models for supporting the adoption of resilient crops and associated yield-enhancing practices.
{"title":"Hybrid agricultural extension and the adoption of climate-resilient varieties: Evidence from oil palm in the Amazon","authors":"Alejandro Estefan , Romina Ordoñez , Cristina Parilli , Paul Winters","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102952","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102952","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change is forcing farmers worldwide to adopt more resilient crop varieties, but optimizing the yields of these varieties often requires new farming practices. We study whether hybrid agricultural extension can increase farmers’ knowledge and adoption of key practices needed to maximize the productivity of a pathogen-resistant hybrid oil palm variety in the Ecuadorian Amazon. Using a randomized field experiment involving palm farmers in two provinces, we test the separate and joint effects of in-person field days and personalized digital nudges. We find that field days and digital nudges are substitutes for improving farmers’ knowledge but affect digital engagement differently: In-person training raises engagement with sequential learning content, while digital nudges increase attention to specific, actionable information. Crucially, only in-person training leads to significant adoption of pollination practices and increased hybrid palm area. Our findings highlight both the promise and limits of digital-only extension models for supporting the adoption of resilient crops and associated yield-enhancing practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"136 ","pages":"Article 102952"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145060503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-15DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102943
S. Dysard , S. Mayhew , M. Ranganathan , P. Milsom , H. Walls
The globally dominant industrialised food system, which encompasses the interrelated actors and activities involved in producing, processing, distributing, preparing and consuming food, in its current form contributes to the global burden of food insecurity and malnutrition, and to environmental degradation and social inequities. Women are critical actors across all aspects of this food system, yet food systems also drive gender inequality, negatively impacting the health and wellbeing of women and girls globally. Addressing these systemic gender inequities is essential for food systems transformation, which requires the adoption of gender-transformative approaches (GTAs) in policymaking. This study assessed the level of gender inclusion in existing global-level food systems policy recommendations to identify gaps in the achievement of GTAs within sustainable food systems policymaking. We undertook a three‑step methodological approach: (i) identification and adaptation of a gender inclusion assessment tool through a scoping review; (ii) identification of global-level policies addressing food systems challenges; and (iii) gender inclusion policy analysis using the adapted assessment tool. The analysis revealed that most food systems policies recommended at the global level fail to integrate GTAs. Policies that were assessed showed limited consideration for gender equality and did not effectively address systemic gender inequities. The findings suggest that GTAs should be prioritised in food systems policymaking to address gender inequalities. There is scope for considerable gender inclusion assessment tool and framework development, but the gender inclusion assessment tool used in this study provides a foundational framework for future gender inclusion analysis in global food systems policy development.
{"title":"Gender and food systems: Are global recommendations for sustainable food systems transformation also gender transformative?","authors":"S. Dysard , S. Mayhew , M. Ranganathan , P. Milsom , H. Walls","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102943","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102943","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The globally dominant industrialised food system, which encompasses the interrelated actors and activities involved in producing, processing, distributing, preparing and consuming food, in its current form contributes to the global burden of food insecurity and malnutrition, and to environmental degradation and social inequities. Women are critical actors across all aspects of this food system, yet food systems also drive gender inequality, negatively impacting the health and wellbeing of women and girls globally. Addressing these systemic gender inequities is essential for food systems transformation, which requires the adoption of gender-transformative approaches (GTAs) in policymaking. This study assessed the level of gender inclusion in existing global-level food systems policy recommendations to identify gaps in the achievement of GTAs within sustainable food systems policymaking. We undertook a three‑step methodological approach: (i) identification and adaptation of a gender inclusion assessment tool through a scoping review; (ii) identification of global-level policies addressing food systems challenges; and (iii) gender inclusion policy analysis using the adapted assessment tool. The analysis revealed that most food systems policies recommended at the global level fail to integrate GTAs. Policies that were assessed showed limited consideration for gender equality and did not effectively address systemic gender inequities. The findings suggest that GTAs should be prioritised in food systems policymaking to address gender inequalities. There is scope for considerable gender inclusion assessment tool and framework development, but the gender inclusion assessment tool used in this study provides a foundational framework for future gender inclusion analysis in global food systems policy development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"136 ","pages":"Article 102943"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145096205","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-08DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102945
Paul Dorosh, Nicholas Minot, Shahidur Rashid
Many countries pursue food price stabilization through public grain reserves (also called buffer stocks or strategic grain reserves) or trade policy. Views of the economics profession on food price stabilization have evolved over time, however, with increased skepticism about economic planning and government market interventions since the mid-1980s. Nonetheless, recent spikes in international commodity prices during the Covid-19 pandemic and at the start of the war in Ukraine have stimulated another wave of interest in establishing or expanding strategic grain reserves and food-based safety net programs.
This article reviews the experience with food price stabilization, focusing on public grain reserves and trade policy. We summarize research on the theory of price stabilization and the challenges of stabilizing food prices in the face of volatile international prices, speculative attacks, imperfect information, and political interference. We also include empirical studies of how these programs function in seven countries. The review concludes with a summary of key lessons from country experiences and suggestions for further research.
{"title":"Food price stabilization: theory and lessons from experience","authors":"Paul Dorosh, Nicholas Minot, Shahidur Rashid","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102945","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102945","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Many countries pursue food price stabilization through public grain reserves (also called buffer stocks or strategic grain reserves) or trade policy. Views of the economics profession on food price stabilization have evolved over time, however, with increased skepticism about economic planning and government market interventions since the mid-1980s. Nonetheless, recent spikes in international commodity prices during the Covid-19 pandemic and at the start of the war in Ukraine have stimulated another wave of interest in establishing or expanding strategic grain reserves and food-based safety net programs.</div><div>This article reviews the experience with food price stabilization, focusing on public grain reserves and trade policy. We summarize research on the theory of price stabilization and the challenges of stabilizing food prices in the face of volatile international prices, speculative attacks, imperfect information, and political interference. We also include empirical studies of how these programs function in seven countries. The review concludes with a summary of key lessons from country experiences and suggestions for further research.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"137 ","pages":"Article 102945"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145018758","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-07DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102964
Robert Paarlberg
{"title":"Corrigendum to “Methane from cattle: facing realities in the global south”. [Food Policy, 136 (2025) 102949]","authors":"Robert Paarlberg","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102964","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102964","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"136 ","pages":"Article 102964"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145010583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-05DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102948
Srabashi Ray
The joint use of hybrid seeds and inorganic fertilizer, at appropriate levels, is necessary to boost cereal productivity by supplementing soil nutrients in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). While these two inputs are ‘paired’ together for integrated soil nutrient management, empirical studies often focus on the use of one of these inputs as a dichotomous choice. This study models the joint use of hybrid seeds and inorganic fertilizer and its impact on different dimensions of food security. The analysis is based on a sample of 1,653 unique maize growing households (3,306 observations) over 4 rounds of the Living Standards Measurements Study – Integrated Surveys of Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) from Tanzania, spanning 10 years between 2010/11 to 2020/21. The Multinomial Endogenous Switching Regression with Correlated Random Effects (MESR + CRE) models self-selection into four potential regimes of input use. The results show that the Average Treatment on the Treated (ATT) of joint inputs use increased maize productivity by 17–39 % and improved food utilization with more diverse diets, by 1.9 food groups in some cases. Further, Average Treatment on the Untreated (ATU) estimates show that farms that do not use both inputs could improve their food security. However, the improvements are restricted by low profitability or even losses under joint input use. Sub-sample analysis in this study shows that the treatment effects are quite heterogenous. Households with more exposure to heat and moisture stress and limited access to services face lower profitability on adoption, limiting the impact on food security outcomes. The findings from this study suggest more targeted approaches to incentivize joint input use and diversification of strategies since agricultural input-based interventions may have limited impacts for households exposed to adverse weather and experiencing severe food insecurity.
{"title":"Joint agricultural input use and food security: evidence from Tanzania","authors":"Srabashi Ray","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102948","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102948","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The joint use of hybrid seeds and inorganic fertilizer, at appropriate levels, is necessary to boost cereal productivity by supplementing soil nutrients in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). While these two inputs are ‘paired’ together for integrated soil nutrient management, empirical studies often focus on the use of one of these inputs as a dichotomous choice. This study models the joint use of hybrid seeds and inorganic fertilizer and its impact on different dimensions of food security. The analysis is based on a sample of 1,653 unique maize growing households (3,306 observations) over 4 rounds of the Living Standards Measurements Study – Integrated Surveys of Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) from Tanzania, spanning 10 years between 2010/11 to 2020/21. The Multinomial Endogenous Switching Regression with Correlated Random Effects (MESR + CRE) models self-selection into four potential regimes of input use. The results show that the Average Treatment on the Treated (ATT) of joint inputs use increased maize productivity by 17–39 % and improved food utilization with more diverse diets, by 1.9 food groups in some cases. Further, Average Treatment on the Untreated (ATU) estimates show that farms that do not use both inputs could improve their food security. However, the improvements are restricted by low profitability or even losses under joint input use. Sub-sample analysis in this study shows that the treatment effects are quite heterogenous. Households with more exposure to heat and moisture stress and limited access to services face lower profitability on adoption, limiting the impact on food security outcomes. The findings from this study suggest more targeted approaches to incentivize joint input use and diversification of strategies since agricultural input-based interventions may have limited impacts for households exposed to adverse weather and experiencing severe food insecurity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"136 ","pages":"Article 102948"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144997063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-03DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102947
Aaron J. Staples , Michael McCullough
Tariffs disrupt global food and beverage trade patterns. This includes the U.S. beer industry, which relies on international trade for agricultural and non-agricultural input exchange, as well as on the global distribution networks of a few multinational beer firms. This study uses a discrete choice experiment, latent class modeling, and market simulations to assess the potential effects of tariffs on beer demand, market shares, and consumer welfare. The results suggest that while tariffs could stimulate domestic production, any gains in domestic market share will most likely be concentrated among multinational firms rather than the nearly 10,000 small, independently-owned craft breweries. In fact, the craft beer industry could lose market share if limited economies of scale, greater reliance on imported materials, and restricted supply chain flexibility lead to higher proportional price increases compared to non-craft domestic beer. This could threaten the long-term financial sustainability of some small businesses and have ripple effects across broader local economies. Recognizing that consumers share the burden imposed by tariffs, the results also indicate that tariffs decrease consumer welfare by $59.1 to $306.4 million, with the magnitude of the estimate depending on the tariff regime and corresponding retail price increases. Taken together, the results provide important context on how tariff policy could impact the investment decisions of multinational firms, affect small businesses, and negatively impact consumer well-being. These insights have implications for policymakers and industry stakeholders navigating the rapidly evolving international trade landscape.
{"title":"Tariffs and U.S. beer demand: How protectionist policies could impact market shares and consumer welfare","authors":"Aaron J. Staples , Michael McCullough","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102947","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102947","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tariffs disrupt global food and beverage trade patterns. This includes the U.S. beer industry, which relies on international trade for agricultural and non-agricultural input exchange, as well as on the global distribution networks of a few multinational beer firms. This study uses a discrete choice experiment, latent class modeling, and market simulations to assess the potential effects of tariffs on beer demand, market shares, and consumer welfare. The results suggest that while tariffs could stimulate domestic production, any gains in domestic market share will most likely be concentrated among multinational firms rather than the nearly 10,000 small, independently-owned craft breweries. In fact, the craft beer industry could lose market share if limited economies of scale, greater reliance on imported materials, and restricted supply chain flexibility lead to higher proportional price increases compared to non-craft domestic beer. This could threaten the long-term financial sustainability of some small businesses and have ripple effects across broader local economies. Recognizing that consumers share the burden imposed by tariffs, the results also indicate that tariffs decrease consumer welfare by $59.1 to $306.4 million, with the magnitude of the estimate depending on the tariff regime and corresponding retail price increases. Taken together, the results provide important context on how tariff policy could impact the investment decisions of multinational firms, affect small businesses, and negatively impact consumer well-being. These insights have implications for policymakers and industry stakeholders navigating the rapidly evolving international trade landscape.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"136 ","pages":"Article 102947"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144933264","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-29DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102949
Robert Paarlberg
{"title":"Methane from cattle: facing realities in the global south","authors":"Robert Paarlberg","doi":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102949","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102949","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":321,"journal":{"name":"Food Policy","volume":"136 ","pages":"Article 102949"},"PeriodicalIF":6.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144912001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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