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WRF-MODEL PARAMETERIZATION TEST FOR PREDICTING EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER KETAPANG REGENCY 预测吉打邦地区极端强降雨事件的wrf模式参数化检验
Pub Date : 2023-08-28 DOI: 10.31172/jmg.v24i1.924
Fazrul Rafsanjani Sadarang
Heavy rains that cause floods and landslides in the Ketapang Regency can be predicted by utilizing the weather research and forecast (WRF) model. The WRF model used, of course, needs to be configured to represent the conditions that exist in Ketapang Regency. This study evaluates the combination of cumulus and microphysics parameterization, producing the best prediction of 24-hour accumulated rainfall. The combination of cumulus and microphysics parameterization tested as many as 24 schemes which later will be obtained which combination can produce the best prediction of rainfall accumulation with the comparison of rainfall measured at the Observation Station of the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) in Ketapang Regency. The results show that combining the KF-Scheme cumulus parameterization scheme and the Kessler-Scheme microphysics can better predict 24-hour accumulated rainfall than other tested parameterization schemes. This result is based on the root mean square error (RMSE), which shows that this combination scheme produces the smallest value and large correlation coefficient (CORR). From this research, it can also be seen that cumulus parameterization has a more dominant role than microphysics parameterization.
利用天气研究与预报(WRF)模式可以预测导致吉打邦县洪水和山体滑坡的暴雨。当然,需要配置所使用的WRF模型,以表示吉打邦摄政王存在的条件。本研究评估了积云和微物理参数化的组合,产生了24小时累积降雨量的最佳预测。积云与微物理参数化的组合测试了多达24种方案,并将其与气象、气候和地球物理局(BMKG)在吉打邦县的观测站测量的降雨量进行比较,得出哪一种组合对降雨积累的预测效果最好。结果表明,KF-Scheme积云参数化方案与Kessler-Scheme微物理相结合,能较好地预测24小时累积雨量。该结果基于均方根误差(RMSE),表明该组合方案产生最小值和较大的相关系数(CORR)。从本研究也可以看出,积云参数化比微物理参数化具有更大的主导作用。
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引用次数: 0
OVERSHOOTING TOP OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD IN EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS OVER JAVA REGION BASED ON VISUAL IDENTIFICATION OF HIMAWARI 8 IMAGERY 基于himawari 8图像视觉识别的爪哇地区极端天气事件中对流云顶过冲
Pub Date : 2023-08-28 DOI: 10.31172/jmg.v24i1.967
Bony Septian Pandjaitan, Akhmad Faqih, Furqon Alfahmi, Perdinan .
Overshooting top (OT) in convective clouds is an essential feature in extreme weather nowcasting performed by weather forecasters to represent the core location of the severe region of the convective cloud. In addition, we can estimate the location of extreme weather events by utilising OT climatology. Unfortunately, it cannot be realised in tropical Indonesia, especially on Java Island at present, because there still needs to be more research on the presence of OT in extreme weather events. This research aims to study the presence of OT in extreme weather events on Java Island using extreme weather reports and the Himawari 8 satellite data. We detect the presence or absence of OT patterns at the location of the extreme weather event with Visual identification by using a visible channel (0.64 μm) with a spatial resolution of 500 m and sandwich products. We found that about 87% of extreme weather occurred accompanied by the appearance of OT patterns from convective clouds. A parallax effect of Himawari 8 caused the detected OT location in the southwest direction of the actual location. Extreme weather events accompanied by the OT feature of convective clouds most often occur in the transitional period of the rainy to dry season (MAM) and the rainy season (DJF). Meanwhile, extreme weather events rarely occur during the dry season (JJA). Extreme weather events accompanied by OT often occur from midday to late afternoon. OT in this study has a diameter between 2-15 km during extreme weather events. A time lag between the appearance of OT and extreme weather events in Java Island gives us opportunities for approximating and nowcasting the extreme weather events.
对流云顶超调(OT)是天气预报员在极端天气临近预报中表现对流云强区核心位置的重要特征。此外,我们可以利用OT气候学来估计极端天气事件的位置。不幸的是,目前在印度尼西亚热带地区,特别是爪哇岛还不能实现这一目标,因为仍然需要对极端天气事件中OT的存在进行更多的研究。本研究旨在利用极端天气报告和Himawari 8卫星数据,研究OT在爪哇岛极端天气事件中的存在。我们通过使用空间分辨率为500 m的可见通道(0.64 μm)和夹层产品,通过视觉识别来检测极端天气事件位置是否存在OT模式。我们发现大约87%的极端天气伴随着对流云的OT模式的出现。由于Himawari 8的视差效应,探测到的OT位置在实际位置的西南方向。伴随对流云OT特征的极端天气事件多发生在雨季转旱季(MAM)和雨季(DJF)的过渡时期。同时,极端天气事件很少发生在旱季(JJA)。伴有OT的极端天气事件通常发生在中午到下午晚些时候。在本研究中,在极端天气事件中,OT的直径在2-15公里之间。在爪哇岛出现OT和极端天气事件之间的时间滞后为我们提供了近似和临近预报极端天气事件的机会。
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引用次数: 0
EVALUATION OF THE CORDEX-SEA MODELS PERFORMANCE IN SIMULATING CHARACTERISTICS OF WET SEASON IN INDONESIA cordex-sea模式模拟印度尼西亚雨季特征的性能评价
Pub Date : 2023-08-28 DOI: 10.31172/jmg.v24i1.965
Akhmad Faqih, Alif Akbar Syafrianno, Supari Supari, Rini Hidayati
Indonesia's climate is known to be challenging to adequately simulate by climate models because of the complexity of the weather system and sea-land distribution. Model evaluation is essential to measure confidence in the model results. This study evaluates the performance of the CORDEX-SEA model in simulating monthly rainfall patterns and the characteristics of seasonal rainfall, i.e., pattern, timing, length, and intensity, in Indonesia during 1986-2005. The performance of weighted (WMME) and unweighted ensemble methods are also calculated. Corrected CHIRPS data with similar seasonal patterns with point observation data is used as reference data to evaluate models. Percentage of the agreement of seasonal patterns between models and observation, FAR, and POD values were used to assess the model's ability to simulate seasonal patterns. WMME has the best seasonal patterns agreement with observation, 67% of all grids. The best model performance is shown by monsoonal patterns, with a POD value of 83% by WMME. Otherwise, all models could not describe an anti-monsoonal pattern, with a small POD (0-33%) and a high FAR (60-100%). In simulating the wet season on climatological, annual, and annual mean scales, both MMEs have similar performance and are better than individual models, with WMME performing best. However, on an annual scale, the yearly wet season produced by all models tends to approach its climatology value, making it less reliable in extreme years. Most models have higher daily and monthly rainfall than observation. In conclusion, the weighted ensemble method describes Indonesia's rainy season well, thus providing a reasonable basis for further research in climate projection analysis.
众所周知,由于天气系统和海陆分布的复杂性,气候模式很难充分模拟印度尼西亚的气候。模型评价对于测量模型结果的置信度至关重要。本研究评估了CORDEX-SEA模式在模拟1986-2005年印度尼西亚月降雨模式和季节性降雨特征(即模式、时间、长度和强度)方面的表现。计算了加权集成方法和非加权集成方法的性能。校正后的CHIRPS数据与点观测数据具有相似的季节模式,作为参考数据对模型进行评价。利用模式与观测值之间季节模式一致性的百分比、FAR值和POD值来评估模式模拟季节模式的能力。WMME的季节模式与观测结果的一致性最好,占所有网格的67%。季风模式表现最好,WMME的POD值为83%。否则,所有模式都不能描述反季风型,POD小(0-33%),FAR高(60-100%)。在气候、年和年平均尺度上模拟雨季时,两种模型的模拟结果相似且优于单个模型,其中WMME表现最好。然而,在年尺度上,所有模式产生的年雨季都趋向于接近其气候学值,因此在极端年份的可靠性较低。大多数模式的日和月降雨量高于观测值。综上所述,加权集合法较好地描述了印度尼西亚的雨季,为气候预测分析的进一步研究提供了合理的基础。
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引用次数: 0
COMPARISON ANALYSIS OF HIMAWARI 8, CHIRPS AND GSMaP DATA TO DETECT RAIN IN INDONESIA HIMAWARI 8、CHIRPS和GSMaP数据在印尼降雨探测中的比较分析
Pub Date : 2023-08-28 DOI: 10.31172/jmg.v24i1.863
Rido Dwi Ismanto, Indah Prasasti, Hana Listi Fitriana
The need for rainfall data, especially for areas where the number of observation stations is not very close, is very important for local climate analysis activities. This data need can be met, one of which is from remote sensing data, such as Himawari 8. The Himawari 8 rainfall data are data derived using the INSAT Multi-Spectral Rainfall Algorithm (IMSRA) method based on the infrared channel on the Himawari 8 satellite. However, research on the IMSRA method was carried out using a case study of a region in India. Thus, validation is needed to determine the ability of Himawari 8 rainfall data to detect rain in Indonesia. The data used for comparison are CHIRPS and GSMaP rainfall data. In addition, BMKG rainfall data are used as benchmark data. The technique used for validation is using the Contingency Table method. The results of the validation show that the rain detection ability for Himawari 8 rainfall data is relatively good, namely 66% for 2019 and 85% for 2020. In addition, the ability to detect rain using Himawari 8 rainfall data is quite good compared to the ability to detect rain using CHIRPS rainfall data and GSMaP rainfall data.
对降雨数据的需求,特别是在观测站数量不是很接近的地区,对当地气候分析活动非常重要。这方面的数据需求是可以满足的,其中之一就是来自遥感数据,如Himawari 8。Himawari 8降水数据是基于Himawari 8卫星红外通道,采用INSAT多光谱降雨算法(IMSRA)方法获得的数据。然而,对IMSRA方法的研究是通过对印度一个地区的案例研究进行的。因此,需要进行验证,以确定Himawari 8降雨数据探测印度尼西亚降雨的能力。用于比较的数据是CHIRPS和GSMaP的降雨数据。另外,以BMKG降雨数据作为基准数据。用于验证的技术是使用列联表方法。验证结果表明,Himawari 8降雨数据的降雨检测能力较好,2019年为66%,2020年为85%。此外,与使用CHIRPS降雨数据和GSMaP降雨数据相比,使用Himawari 8降雨数据检测降雨的能力相当好。
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引用次数: 0
STRESS ANALYSIS AND CHARACTERISTICS DUE TO THE SOUTH JAVA EARTHQUAKE, APRIL 10, 2021 2021年4月10日爪哇南部地震的应力分析及特征
Pub Date : 2023-08-25 DOI: 10.31172/jmg.v24i1.770
Rahmat Setyo Yuliatmoko, Sulastri Sulastri
The April 10, 2021, earthquake in the south of East Java was classified as destructive. The secondary impact of this earthquake was quite significant. Many houses collapsed, and not a few casualties. This earthquake is unique because usually, destructive earthquakes occur at shallow depths, but earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.1 are classified as medium-depth earthquakes at sea. The earthquake in the south of East Java is classified as an intraplate earthquake because it is located on the continental plate, not in the plate contact area. The question is whether the damage that occurred to the building was purely due to the magnitude of the stress released by the earthquake or whether there were other factors. This study uses seismogram data for the earthquake south of East Java on April 10, 2021, with a radius (∆) of 300-1000 recorded at MEEK, MORW, and ARMA stations in Australia. It calculates the amount of stress based on the stress drop, while the stress column determines the stress mechanism. Calculation of stress drop from the source spectrum is obtained by the deconvolution method, namely the seismogram component separation technique in the form of Source (f), Path (f), Site (f), and Instrument (f). The analysis of the observed displacement spectrum used the Nelder Mead Simplex nonlinear inversion method. Meanwhile, the Stress Columb calculation was obtained using the Columb 3.3 program from the United States Geological Survey (USGS). The result of this research is that the stress drop value is 1.69 MPa, with the type of focus mechanism being a thrust fault in the sea. The earthquake in the south of East Java was caused by rock activity in the intraplate. The value of the stress drop is more significant when compared to the subduction contact area. This area is of intraplate rock with various variations, and earthquakes are rare. This study aims to analyze the stress, both the magnitude of the stress drop and the mechanism of the column stress results, so that the stress caused by the earthquake can be known and why the earthquake in the south of East Java is destructive. The quake in Southeast Java is classified as dangerous, not because of the magnitude of the stress generated or its mechanism. The damage was due to the amplification of earthquake waves in the building. The injury occurred because most of the buildings were built on soft soil, especially in several areas in East Java, such as Lumajang, Pasuruan, Trenggalek, Probolinggo, Ponorogo, Jember, Tulunggagung, Nganjuk, Pacitan, and several urban areas, namely Blitar, Kediri, Malang, and Stone. So, there is a need for earthquake disaster mitigation, especially in densely populated areas that live on soft soil. This mitigation effort is to minimize the occurrence of casualties by building buildings according to earthquake-resistant standards and avoiding development in the regions that have the potential for amplification of earthquake waves.
2021年4月10日发生在东爪哇南部的地震被列为破坏性地震。这次地震的二次影响相当大。许多房屋倒塌,伤亡人数不少。这次地震的独特之处在于,破坏性地震通常发生在浅层,但6.1级地震被归类为海上中深度地震。东爪哇南部的地震被归类为板块内地震,因为它位于大陆板块上,而不是板块接触区。问题是,对建筑物的破坏是否纯粹是由于地震释放的压力的大小,或者是否有其他因素。本研究使用了澳大利亚MEEK、MORW和ARMA台站记录的2021年4月10日东爪哇以南地震的地震记录资料,地震半径∆为300-1000。它根据应力降计算应力量,而应力柱确定应力机理。通过反褶积方法,即以震源(f)、路径(f)、场地(f)、仪器(f)形式的地震记录分量分离技术,计算震源谱的应力降。对观测位移谱的分析采用Nelder Mead单纯形非线性反演方法。同时,利用美国地质调查局(USGS)的Columb 3.3程序进行应力柱计算。研究结果表明:应力降值为1.69 MPa,震源机制类型为海上逆冲断层。东爪哇南部的地震是由板块内的岩石活动引起的。与俯冲接触面积相比,应力降值更为显著。该地区为板内岩,变化多样,地震较少。本研究旨在分析应力,包括应力下降的大小和柱应力结果的机制,从而了解地震引起的应力以及东爪哇南部地震具有破坏性的原因。爪哇东南部的地震被列为危险级别,不是因为产生的压力大小或其机制。损坏是由于建筑物内地震波的放大造成的。造成伤害的原因是大多数建筑物建在软土上,特别是在东爪哇的几个地区,如Lumajang、Pasuruan、Trenggalek、Probolinggo、Ponorogo、Jember、Tulunggagung、Nganjuk、Pacitan,以及几个城市地区,即Blitar、Kediri、Malang和Stone。因此,有必要减轻地震灾害,特别是在居住在软土上的人口稠密地区。这种减灾努力是根据抗震标准建造建筑物,并避免在有可能扩大地震波的地区开发,从而最大限度地减少伤亡的发生。
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引用次数: 0
KARAKTERISTIK DAN PELAPISAN MASSA AIR DI PERAIRAN TELUK BUNGUS DAN BEBERAPA PULAU-PULAU KECIL DI KOTA PADANG 邦格斯湾水体和巴东市一些小岛的特征和水体覆盖
Pub Date : 2022-08-08 DOI: 10.31172/jmg.v23i2.882
Try Al Tanto, I. W. Nurjaya, I. Jaya, Tri Hartanto, Amir Yarkhasy, Akmala Dwi Nugraha, Somantri Somantri
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引用次数: 0
Turbulence analysis on the flight of Etihad airways in Bangka Island using the WRF case study May 4, 2016 2016年5月4日,阿提哈德航空公司在邦加岛的航班湍流分析,使用WRF案例研究
Pub Date : 2022-08-08 DOI: 10.31172/jmg.v23i3.912
Bayu Retna Tri Andari, N. J. Trilaksono, M. Munandar
Accurate weather forecasts should support the increase in safety of aviation operations in Indonesia. This weather forecast is needed, especially in detecting turbulence, considering that geographically Indonesia has effective solar radiation resulting in convective cloud formation. Convective clouds can trigger turbulence then produce disruption and even accidents on flights. This research uses a case study on the Etihad Airways flight on Bangka Island on May 4, 2016. At the time of the incident, there was turbulence at 39,000 feet altitude, and the aircraft did not enter the cloudy area. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to simulate the turbulence in this study, which is downscaled up to 3 km with a microphysics parameterization of WRF Single Moment 6 Class (WSM6). The results were then verified using correlation and linear regression for temperature, wind direction, wind speed, and pattern resemblance between cloud fraction and the convective nuclei distribution. The turbulence is analyzed from the south-north and west-east vertical airflow. The turbulence spotted at 06.40 UTC when there is a quite strong updraft which can cause turbulence. The turbulence parameters used, such as the eddy dissipation rate (EDR) parameter, which has a value of 0.05 , Richardson number with a value of less than 0.25, and turbulence index (TI 1) with a maximum value of 4 x 10-7 s-2 found that turbulence was in a strong category. The turbulence that occurs in this study is identified as near cloud turbulence (NCT) event due to cloud formation observed in the west of the turbulence and intense updraft activity at the location of turbulence.
准确的天气预报应有助于提高印尼航空运营的安全性。这种天气预报是必要的,特别是在探测湍流时,考虑到印度尼西亚在地理上有有效的太阳辐射,导致对流云的形成。对流云会引发湍流,造成航班中断甚至事故。本研究以2016年5月4日阿提哈德航空在邦加岛的航班为例。事故发生时,飞机在39000英尺的高空出现了湍流,飞机没有进入多云区域。本文采用天气研究与预报(WRF)模式模拟湍流,并采用WRF单矩6级(WSM6)的微物理参数化,模拟尺度缩小至3 km。然后利用温度、风向、风速和云分与对流核分布的相似度的相关性和线性回归对结果进行验证。从南北垂直气流和西东垂直气流两方面分析了湍流。湍流发生在世界时6点40分,当时有一股很强的上升气流会引起湍流。采用涡耗散率(EDR)参数为0.05,理查德森数小于0.25,湍流指数(TI 1)最大值为4 × 10-7 s-2等湍流参数发现,湍流属于强类型。本研究中发生的湍流被确定为近云湍流(NCT)事件,因为在湍流的西部观测到云的形成和湍流位置强烈的上升气流活动。
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引用次数: 0
IKLIM PURBA PADA LINGKUNGAN KARBONAT FORMASI TONASA BERDASARKAN FORAMINIFERA PLANKTONIK, SULAWESI SELATAN
Pub Date : 2022-06-27 DOI: 10.31172/jmg.v23i2.839
Meutia Farida, Asri Jaya, Ilham Alimuddin, Safruddim Safruddim, Asmita Ahmad
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引用次数: 0
ANALISIS SPASIAL FENOMENA URBAN HEAT ISLAND MENGGUNAKAN ALGORITMA LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURE KOTA KENDARI
Pub Date : 2022-06-27 DOI: 10.31172/jmg.v23i2.852
La Gandri
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引用次数: 0
THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 OUTBREAK ON AIR POLLUTION LEVELS USING ARIMA INTERVENTION MODELLING: A CASE STUDY OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA 利用arima干预模型研究COVID-19疫情对空气污染水平的影响:以印度尼西亚雅加达为例
Pub Date : 2022-06-14 DOI: 10.31172/jmg.v23i3.791
Dyah Makutaning Dewi, A. Romadhon, Istu Indah Setyaningsih, I. Wulansari
Jakarta is a region with a high number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia. This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting large scale social restriction on air pollution levels in Jakarta, Indonesia, by studying particulate matter (PM10) levels. This study employs ARIMA intervention using daily COVID-19 case data from January 1, 2020 to September 30, 2020 (the period before and after the first case of COVID-19 in Indonesia on March 2, 2020). The analysis shows COVID-19 started to impact PM10 in Jakarta on the 11th day after confirming the first case in Indonesia, which is indicated by an unordinary increase in PM10 level. However, on the 12th day after intervention, the PM10 level decreases. This occurred at the beginning of the period when large-scale social restrictions are imposed. However, one month after intervention, PM10 increases again and continues to increase until the end of the study. This is allegedly because people are accustomed to being ignorant and bored with the pandemic situation. Social restrictions and movements are no longer effective, which results in the rise of PM10 levels again. Hence, it can be concluded that COVID-19 impacts air quality in Jakarta even though the impact is minimal and in the short term.
雅加达是印度尼西亚新冠肺炎病例最多的地区。本研究通过研究可吸入颗粒物(PM10)水平,调查了2019冠状病毒病大流行及其对印度尼西亚雅加达空气污染水平的大规模社会限制的影响。本研究采用ARIMA干预,使用2020年1月1日至2020年9月30日(2020年3月2日印度尼西亚出现第一例COVID-19病例前后)的每日COVID-19病例数据。分析结果显示,在印度尼西亚确诊首例新冠肺炎病例后的第11天,雅加达的PM10开始受到影响,这体现在PM10水平异常上升。但在干预后第12天,PM10水平下降。这种情况发生在实行大规模社会限制的初期。然而,干预一个月后,PM10再次增加,并继续增加,直到研究结束。据称,这是因为人们习惯了对疫情的无知和厌倦。社会限制和行动不再有效,这导致PM10水平再次上升。因此,可以得出结论,COVID-19影响了雅加达的空气质量,尽管影响很小,而且是短期的。
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引用次数: 0
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