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IMPORTANCE OF UPDATING FOR MONTHLY RAINFALL PREDICTION BASED ON ECMWFs4 更新基于ECMWFs4的月雨量预报的重要性
Pub Date : 2022-06-14 DOI: 10.31172/jmg.v23i3.803
Achmad Maulana Rafi
There is uniqueness in climate services in East Java. Rainfall information is delivered as N-1 analysis for ongoing months N+1, N+2, and N+3 for monthly prediction. This study aims to investigate whether updating monthly predictions improves prediction accuracy. The verification method for this study is based on the percentage accuracy of the rain class category according to SNI 8196: 2015. The data used for this study is ECMWF's monthly rainfall prediction that has three lags system (1, 2, and 3). Rasters of monthly rainfall interpolation from the main rainfall observation (197 locations) in East Java from April 2015 to May 2020 (62 months) are used for the verification process. The temporal and spatial analysis then conducted using R (+ package raster). Studies based on the local governmental zone are also used. In general, the result shows that almost all months need updating, except April-September-October. Verification of ECMWFs4 shows a better verification result (0,56) in the past five years (2016-2020) for March. The regions that need monthly updating are Bawean island, the coast of Gresik, Pasuruan, and Banyuwangi
东爪哇的气候服务有其独特性。降雨信息以N-1分析的形式提供,用于持续月份N+1、N+2和N+3的月度预测。本研究旨在探讨更新月度预测是否能提高预测准确性。本研究的验证方法基于SNI 8196: 2015雨类分类的百分比准确率。本研究使用的数据是ECMWF的月度降雨预测,该预测具有三个滞后系统(1、2和3)。验证过程使用了2015年4月至2020年5月(62个月)东爪哇主要降雨观测(197个地点)的月度降雨插值光栅。然后使用R(+封装光栅)进行时空分析。也使用了基于地方政府区域的研究。总的来说,结果表明,除了4 - 9 - 10月,几乎所有月份都需要更新。对ECMWFs4的验证显示,3月份近5年(2016-2020)的验证结果较好(0.56)。需要每月更新的地区是baewai岛、Gresik海岸、Pasuruan和Banyuwangi
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引用次数: 0
ANALYSIS AND DETERMINATION OF TOURISM CLIMATE INDEX (TCI) IN EAST NUSA TENGGARA 努沙登加拉东部旅游气候指数(tci)的分析与测定
Pub Date : 2022-06-14 DOI: 10.31172/jmg.v23i3.821
Nizar Manarul Hidayat
The development of tourism is quite rapid in several parts of Indonesia. No exception in East Nusa Tenggara which offers a beautiful part of the beach. Most tourists will use this information in the form of the climate comfort index to determine the right travel time. The Climate Comfort Index can be searched using the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) method including weather parameters such as maximum air temperature and minimum air humidity (Daytime Comfort Index), average air temperature and average air humidity (Daily Comfort Index), rainfall, length of sunshine and average wind speed). Monthly data for the years 1991 - 2015 were provided from eight BMKG meteorological stations. The results showed that the Rote and Maumere regions were in the 'Very Good' category in the summer (June and July). Meanwhile, Sabu and Rote had the most comfortable seven months. In general, during the summer (June - August) the TCI value (≥ 70) has increased so as to provide comfort for beach tourism destinations. The best time for traveling is best visited during the peak of the dry season (June to August) while in the rainy season (November - February) is the worst time to travel.
在印度尼西亚的一些地区,旅游业的发展相当迅速。东努沙登加拉也不例外,那里有美丽的海滩。大多数游客会以气候舒适指数的形式使用这些信息来确定合适的旅行时间。气候舒适指数可以使用旅游气候指数(TCI)方法来搜索,包括天气参数,如最高气温和最低空气湿度(日间舒适指数),平均气温和平均空气湿度(每日舒适指数),降雨量,日照长度和平均风速)。1991 - 2015年的月数据由8个BMKG气象站提供。结果表明,罗特和莫米尔地区在夏季(6月和7月)处于“非常好”的类别。与此同时,萨布和罗特度过了最舒适的七个月。总体而言,在夏季(6 - 8月),TCI值(≥70)有所增加,为海滩旅游目的地提供了舒适性。最好的旅游时间是在旱季的高峰期(6月至8月),而在雨季(11月至2月)是最糟糕的旅行时间。
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引用次数: 0
The estimation of sea-breeze front velocity over coastal urban using Himawari-8 images: A case study in Jakarta 利用Himawari-8图像估算沿海城市上空海风锋速度:以雅加达为例
Pub Date : 2022-06-14 DOI: 10.31172/jmg.v23i3.810
Muhammad Rezza Ferdiansyah, A. Wijayanto
The sea breeze is a meteorological phenomenon that occurs due to the contrast temperature between land and oceans. The propagation velocity of sea breeze are influenced strongly by e.g., synoptic wind and geographical conditions. Therefore, it is important to understand the relationship between the spatial distribution of sea breeze velocity and the surface characteristic, for instance over urbanized and less-urbanized coastal areas. When the sea breeze propagates inland, a cumulus cloudline will form in the vicinity of the sea breeze front (SBF). Previous studies have successfully detected the cloudline automatically using the morphological-snake algorithm. In this paper, we estimate the SBF velocity using Himawari-8 satellite images. The proposed method segmented the cloudline data points using a clustering approach, named machine learning-based k-means++, on the level-set obtained from snake algorithm. We then estimate the SBF velocity by calculating the haversine distance of the segmented cloudline points that propagate over time. The comparison of estimated cloudline speed with SBF speed measured at two observation sites, namely KKP and BPL, reveals the root mean square errors 1.39 m/s and 1.41 m/s, respectively. And the propagation direction was mainly southward.
海风是一种气象现象,由于陆地和海洋之间的温度差异而产生。海风的传播速度受天气风和地理条件等因素的强烈影响。因此,了解海风速度的空间分布与地表特征之间的关系非常重要,例如城市化程度高和城市化程度低的沿海地区。海风向内陆传播时,在海风锋附近会形成积云云线。以前的研究已经成功地使用形态蛇算法自动检测云线。本文利用Himawari-8卫星图像估计了SBF的速度。该方法采用基于机器学习的k-means++聚类方法,在snake算法得到的水平集上对cloudline数据点进行分割。然后,我们通过计算随时间传播的分段云线点的哈弗辛距离来估计SBF速度。对KKP和BPL两个观测点测得的云线速度和SBF速度进行比较,均方根误差分别为1.39 m/s和1.41 m/s。传播方向以南向为主。
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引用次数: 0
STUDY OF SINGLE- AND DOUBLE-MOMENT MICROPHYSICS SCHEME IMPACT ON LILI AND MANGGA TROPICAL CYCLONE 单、双矩微物理方案对丽丽、芒迦热带气旋影响的研究
Pub Date : 2022-06-14 DOI: 10.31172/jmg.v23i3.804
Fazrul Rafsanjani Sadarang
In this study, prediction of tropical cyclones using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to test the double-moment (DM) and single-moment (SM) microphysical parameterization schemes in event of Lili and Mangga Tropical Cyclones. Models with microphysical parameterization schemes WDM5, WDM6, WSM5, WSM6, and without microphysical parameterization schemes (CTL) were each tested against track predictions, the pressure value, and maximum wind speed. The results of track prediction show that the best schemes in the tropical cyclone case of Lili and Mangga is WSM6 and WDM6, respectively, with an average error value of 78.1 and 80.1 km. Based on the Taylor diagram, the prediction results of the pressure value and the maximum wind speed in case of Lili Tropical Cyclones get the WDM6 scheme as the best scheme. Meanwhile, the results of the pressure prediction at the cyclone center in the case of Mangga Tropical Cyclones show that the WDM6 scheme is the best. However, the prediction of maximum wind speed in Mangga tropical cyclones produces the CTL scheme as the best scheme. This study shows that DM dan SM microphysical parameterization schemes have a big impact on track prediction compare to pressure value and maximum wind speed variable.
本文利用气象研究与预报(WRF)模式对Lili和Mangga热带气旋进行了双矩(DM)和单矩(SM)微物理参数化方案的试验。采用微物理参数化方案(WDM5、WDM6、WSM5、WSM6)和不采用微物理参数化方案(CTL)的模型分别对路径预测、压力值和最大风速进行了测试。路径预报结果表明,丽丽和芒尕的最佳方案分别为WSM6和WDM6,平均误差分别为78.1和80.1 km。根据泰勒图对丽丽热带气旋的气压值和最大风速的预测结果,得出WDM6方案为最佳方案。同时,对孟嘎热带气旋中心气压的预报结果表明,WDM6方案的预报效果最好。而对芒嘎热带气旋最大风速的预报结果显示CTL方案为最佳方案。研究表明,相对于压力值和最大风速变量,DM和SM微物理参数化方案对路径预测的影响较大。
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引用次数: 0
IDENTIFICATION OF TROPICAL SQUALL LINE USING INFRARED CHANNEL HIMAWARI-8 SATELLITE IMAGERY (CASE STUDY OF 6-7 DECEMBER 2020 IN THE INDIAN OCEAN) 利用红外通道hima -8卫星图像识别热带飑线(以2020年12月6日至7日印度洋为例)
Pub Date : 2022-06-14 DOI: 10.31172/jmg.v23i3.808
Nurul Izzah Fitria, Novvria Sagita, Arnelia Indah Cahyani
Tropical squall line is a linear type of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) phenomenon. On December 6-7, 2020, the Infrared (IR1) Himawari-8 satellite image in the Indian Ocean of Indonesian region, shows a cloud line identified as the tropical squall line. This study aims to identify the characteristics of the tropical squall line phenomenon that occurs in the Indian Ocean south of West Java using Himawari-8 Infrared (IR1) satellite imagery. Satellite image data is processed using an algorithm adapted to the MCC Maddox 1980 criteria. Furthermore, an objective analysis is carried out on the data based on the criteria from previous studies. The result shows that the tropical squall occurred for 19 hours with the initial type of tropical squall formation as intersecting convective band. In the mature stage, the trailing stratiform region and convective line develops an asymmetric pattern and shows a vortex (Mesoscale Convective Vortices) that forms inside the stratiform region. The result of rainfall distribution using the GSMaP model shows a category of heavy rain with rainfall in tropical squall areas exceeding 10 mm per hour.
热带飑线是一种线性型的中尺度对流系统(MCS)现象。2020年12月6日至7日,印度尼西亚印度洋地区的红外(IR1) Himawari-8卫星图像显示了一条被确定为热带飑线的云线。本研究旨在利用Himawari-8红外(IR1)卫星图像识别发生在西爪哇以南印度洋的热带飑线现象的特征。卫星图像数据的处理采用了一种适应MCC Maddox 1980标准的算法。在此基础上,根据前人的研究标准对数据进行客观分析。结果表明,此次热带风暴持续了19 h,形成的初始类型为交叉对流带。成熟阶段,尾随的层状区和对流线形成不对称格局,在层状区内部形成涡(中尺度对流涡)。使用GSMaP模式的雨量分布结果显示,热带飑区雨量超过每小时10毫米,属暴雨范畴。
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引用次数: 0
The Utilization of Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) Model of 3DVar (Three Dimensional Variational) and Himawari-8 Satellite Imagery to the Heavy Rain in Palangkaraya (Case Study : April 27, 2018) 三维变分气象研究预报(WRF)模式与himawai -8卫星影像对帕朗卡拉亚暴雨的应用(以2018年4月27日为例)
Pub Date : 2022-06-14 DOI: 10.31172/jmg.v23i3.790
N. Ayasha, Leny Octaviana Bota
On April 27, 2018 heavy rain was occurred in Palangkaraya. Based on surface data observations at Tjilik Riwut Meteorological Station, the peak of rain occurred between 18-21 UTC, which 54 mm within 3 hours. As a result, the flood inundated on the following day. This research purposed to discover the cause of heavy rain used the WRF model of 3DVar technique that assimilated with AMSU-A satellite which used the tropical physic suite parameterization scheme and Himawari-8 Satellite (IR-1 data), processed by Python Programming. Based on the results, the WRF of the 3DVar model is not representative enough in total rainfall results. However, several weather disturbances show the potency for severe weather occurrence from WRF 3DVar modeling. These are indicated by the shear line and eddy circulation at 18 and 21 UTC, and the time series of air pressure decreases with a 0.5 Mb tendency between 15 to 18 UTC. Moreover, the cloud top temperature graph from Himawari-8 Satellite data shows a drastic reduction in temperature to -61.4323 at 18.20 UTC, which supports the heavy rain process. The weather analysis above show that WRF 3DVar is not representative enough for total rainfall result, but appropriate for other weather aspects (shear line, eddy, and air pressure). Therefore, the heavy rain is caused by shear line and eddy condition, air pressure and low temperature of the cloud top.
2018年4月27日,帕朗卡拉亚出现暴雨。根据Tjilik Riwut气象站的地面观测资料,降雨高峰发生在18-21 UTC之间,3小时内降雨量为54毫米。结果,第二天洪水泛滥了。本研究利用利用AMSU-A卫星热带物理套参数化方案和Himawari-8卫星IR-1数据同化的3DVar技术WRF模型,通过Python编程进行处理,探讨暴雨成因。结果表明,3DVar模式的WRF在总降水结果中代表性不足。然而,从WRF 3DVar模型来看,一些天气扰动显示了恶劣天气发生的潜力。在18和21 UTC的切变线和涡旋环流表明了这一趋势,而在15 - 18 UTC期间,气压时间序列以0.5 Mb的趋势下降。此外,Himawari-8卫星数据的云顶温度图显示,在18.20 UTC温度急剧下降至-61.4323,这支持了大雨过程。上述天气分析表明,WRF 3DVar对总降水结果的代表性不足,但对其他天气方面(切变线、涡动、气压)的代表性较好。因此,此次暴雨是由切变线和涡旋条件、云顶气压和低温造成的。
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引用次数: 0
Identification of the Puting Beliung Event by Utilizing the Interpretations of Radar Products and Himawari-8 Weather Satellite (Case Study: Puting Beliung Incident, November 22, 2018 in Jakarta) 利用雷达产品和himawai -8气象卫星解译识别Puting - belung事件(以2018年11月22日雅加达Puting - belung事件为例)
Pub Date : 2022-06-14 DOI: 10.31172/jmg.v23i3.799
I. Rusmala
Indonesia was shocked again by a Puting beliung or tornado-like incident on November 22, 2018, in the Jakarta area. This incident caused many losses. In this regard, a study was conducted to observe the reflectivity products to identifiy the hook echo or bow echo patterns, and the velocity products for mesocyclone patterns as the characteristic of the Puting Beliung used radar product. The study required the Cengkareng C-Band raw data radar that was processed to produce CMAX, VCUT, and CAPPI (V) at 0.5 km, 1.0 km, and 1.5 km elevations overlay by HWIND. The CMAX and VCUT radar products are used to identify the cloud structure that caused Puting Beliung, by observed the highest reflectivity of the Puting Beliung-producing clouds. Then the CAPPI product overlay by HWIND is used to identify the movement of the wind which is suspected to be the beginning of the formation of a Puting Beliung at that location which is characterized by the presence of a mesocyclone pattern in the form of wind components and radial velocity. It was suspected that there was a wind rotating in the Central Jakarta area which indicated a Puting Beliung in the area. The analysis of this radar interpretation was then validated using satellite imagery to detect the cumulonimbus clouds forming the Puting Beliung. From this research, it is known that the Puting Beliung occurred around 08.12 UTC. The growth of cyclone-producing clouds occurred rapidly with a reflectivity value between 35 - 45 dBZ and wind speed up to 35 knots. Analysis of satellite imagery showed a significant decrease in cloud peak temperature so that the formation of convective clouds in the form of Cumulonimbus clouds indicates the phenomenon of the Puting Beliung. However, in this case study the Puting Beliung phenomenon is indicated as seen from the mesocyclone pattern of the rotating radial velocity component, and not from the hook echo or bow echo pattern.
2018年11月22日,印度尼西亚雅加达地区再次发生类似“普廷”或龙卷风的事件。这一事件造成了许多损失。在此基础上,研究了用反射率产品来识别钩回波和弓形回波型,用速度产品来识别中气旋型,作为普亭北斗雷达产品的特点。本研究使用的曾卡伦c波段原始数据雷达,经HWIND处理得到0.5 km、1.0 km和1.5 km高程的CMAX、VCUT和CAPPI (V)叠加。利用CMAX和VCUT雷达产品,通过观测产生普亭贝隆的云的最高反射率,确定了引起普亭贝隆的云结构。然后利用HWIND的CAPPI产品叠加来识别该风的运动,该风的运动被怀疑是在该位置形成一个以风分量和径向速度形式存在的中气旋型为特征的普亭束的开始。有人怀疑雅加达中部地区有风在旋转,这表明该地区有普亭旋风。然后,利用卫星图像检测形成普亭洞的积雨云,验证了雷达解释的分析。根据这项研究,我们知道普亭事件发生在世界时08.12左右。产生气旋的云增长迅速,反射率在35 ~ 45 dBZ之间,风速可达35节。卫星图像分析显示,云峰温度明显下降,以积雨云形式形成的对流云表明了普亭流现象。然而,在这个案例中,从旋转径向速度分量的中气旋型中可以看出普亭-贝林现象,而不是从钩回波或弓形回波型中可以看出。
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引用次数: 0
Atmosphere Condition Analysis on Hail Event (Case Study : Pelalawan on September 23rd, 2019) 冰雹事件大气条件分析(以2019年9月23日佩拉拉湾为例)
Pub Date : 2022-06-14 DOI: 10.31172/jmg.v23i3.813
Mari Frystine
Hail in Pulau Muda Village, Pelalawan Regency, Riau Province, occured on September 23rd 2019 when the entire Riau area was covered by smoke due to forest and land fires phenomenon. The hail was not accompanied by extreme rain and did not cause material harm. However, a study of atmospheric conditions before, during, and after the hail occurred is needed to reference for early warning of future events. The result was analyzed descriptively on the radar products, satellite images and observation parameters. CMAX and VCUT of radar product generated from RainbowV5.9 showed that at 06.02 UTC there was a single CB cloud, which its maximum reflectivity core was 60 dBZ at 5 km height. Both the core reflectivity and its height decreased by the time as the cloud dissipated. Himawari-8 RGB images and cloud top temperature time series processed by SATAID showed a significant decrease of cloud top temperature reached -75oC  at 06.00 UTC where the cloud had large ice particles with strong updraft and dissipated within 1 hour into thin cirrus and medium-low clouds. ECMWF ERA5 Reanalysis data processed by GrADS showed that surface air temperature, RH, and CAPE index has a different value from h-1 to h+1 of hail occurrence. Vertical profile showed the single CB cloud had much amount of ice particles and also strong updrafts that the maximum value of updraft was 0,202 m/s at the development stage. In contrast, the maximum value of downdraft was 0,032 m/s in the dissipation stage of the cloud.
2019年9月23日,由于森林和土地火灾现象,整个廖内地区被烟雾覆盖,廖内省佩拉拉湾县穆达岛村发生冰雹。这次冰雹没有伴随极端降雨,也没有造成物质损失。然而,需要对冰雹发生之前、期间和之后的大气条件进行研究,以参考未来事件的早期预警。利用雷达产品、卫星图像和观测参数对结果进行了描述性分析。由RainbowV5.9生成的雷达产品CMAX和VCUT显示,在06:02 UTC有一个单一的CB云,其最大反射率核心在5 km高度为60 dBZ。随着云的消散,核心反射率和核心高度随时间的推移而降低。经SATAID处理的himawai -8 RGB图像和云顶温度时间序列显示,在0600 UTC,云顶温度显著下降,达到-75℃,云中有大冰粒,上升气流强,在1小时内消散为薄卷云和中低云。梯度处理的ECMWF ERA5再分析数据显示,在冰雹发生的h-1到h+1期间,地面气温、相对湿度和CAPE指数具有不同的值。垂直剖面显示,单云有大量的冰粒和较强的上升气流,在发展阶段上升气流最大值为0.0202 m/s。而在云的消散阶段,下降气流的最大值为0.032 m/s。
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引用次数: 0
SUHU PERMUKAAN DAN KANDUNGAN PANAS LAUT PERAIRAN INDONESIA DALAM SATU ABAD TERAKHIR
Pub Date : 2022-06-06 DOI: 10.31172/jmg.v23i2.841
Mutiara Rachmat Putri
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引用次数: 0
PENGARUH CENS-CT TERHADAP CURAH HUJAN EKSTRIM DAN BANJIR DI KOTA SEMARANG (STUDI KASUS TANGGAL 5 DAN 6 FEBRUARI 2021) cense - ct对三宝垄极端降雨和洪水的影响(案例研究2021年2月5日和6日)
Pub Date : 2022-06-06 DOI: 10.31172/jmg.v23i2.761
Zauyik Nana Ruslana
{"title":"PENGARUH CENS-CT TERHADAP CURAH HUJAN EKSTRIM DAN BANJIR DI KOTA SEMARANG (STUDI KASUS TANGGAL 5 DAN 6 FEBRUARI 2021)","authors":"Zauyik Nana Ruslana","doi":"10.31172/jmg.v23i2.761","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31172/jmg.v23i2.761","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":32347,"journal":{"name":"Jurnal Meteorologi dan Geofisika","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77065979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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Jurnal Meteorologi dan Geofisika
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