Pub Date : 2025-08-23DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103052
Dianyu Zhu , Miaomiao Liu , Yuli Shan , Ruoqi Li , Haofan Zhang , Yuan Li , Jun Bi , Klaus Hubacek
Climate change is reshaping global health burdens, but its financial impacts through increased household medical expenditures remain underexplored. This study integrated random forest techniques and 264,302 daily bank transaction data from 271 Chinese cities (2017–2019) to simulate household medical expenditure responses to climate change. To observe the heterogeneity among different cities, cities are categorized into 14 city groups based on their historical temperature and economic conditions to build simulation models. We further projected the future household medical expenditures in different cities under four Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), considering the pure effects of climate change and sensitivity changes under SSP-informed socioeconomic and physiological scenarios. We find that households in higher-income cities and cities with historically low temperatures have enhanced resilience to heat and cold, respectively. Climate change is projected to slightly decrease household medical expenses in China by 5.2% (SSP126) to 5.6% (SSP585) in 2060, attributed to fewer cold-related medical expenditures. Under the physiological scenarios, enhanced body system functions are projected to reduce medical expenditures by 19.5% (SSP245) to 27.6% (SSP585) by 2060. Rising incomes under socioeconomic scenarios may stimulate healthcare demand and drive expenditures up by 4.9% (SSP370) to 22.5% (SSP585). The findings highlight the importance of incorporating the moderating role of adaptation in devising tailored strategies to alleviate the household health-related economic strains induced by climate change.
{"title":"Medical expenditures under climate change and SSP-informed physiological and socioeconomic scenarios in China","authors":"Dianyu Zhu , Miaomiao Liu , Yuli Shan , Ruoqi Li , Haofan Zhang , Yuan Li , Jun Bi , Klaus Hubacek","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103052","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103052","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change is reshaping global health burdens, but its financial impacts through increased household medical expenditures remain underexplored. This study integrated random forest techniques and 264,302 daily bank transaction data from 271 Chinese cities (2017–2019) to simulate household medical expenditure responses to climate change. To observe the heterogeneity among different cities, cities are categorized into 14 city groups based on their historical temperature and economic conditions to build simulation models. We further projected the future household medical expenditures in different cities under four Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), considering the pure effects of climate change and sensitivity changes under SSP-informed socioeconomic and physiological scenarios. We find that households in higher-income cities and cities with historically low temperatures have enhanced resilience to heat and cold, respectively. Climate change is projected to slightly decrease household medical expenses in China by 5.2% (SSP126) to 5.6% (SSP585) in 2060, attributed to fewer cold-related medical expenditures. Under the physiological scenarios, enhanced body system functions are projected to reduce medical expenditures by 19.5% (SSP245) to 27.6% (SSP585) by 2060. Rising incomes under socioeconomic scenarios may stimulate healthcare demand and drive expenditures up by 4.9% (SSP370) to 22.5% (SSP585). The findings highlight the importance of incorporating the moderating role of adaptation in devising tailored strategies to alleviate the household health-related economic strains induced by climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 103052"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144891960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-16DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103049
Clara G. Bouyssou, Francesco Clora, Jørgen Dejgård Jensen, Wusheng Yu
Food policy assessments and food demand projections rely on demand elasticities. The elasticities used, however, often lack granularity and depend on ad hoc adjustments to make them evolve over time. In this study we explore an alternative approach using a meta-analysis database and the XGBoost machine learning algorithm to predict food demand elasticities. Next, we use the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) database to project the elasticities to 2030, 2040, and 2050. The elasticities are then calibrated to comply with theoretical conditions and used to parameterize the demand system in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Finally, using the CGE model, we illustrate the implications of the new parameters by simulating four sets of simple scenarios. As output files we provide (1) income, own-price, and cross-price (both compensated and uncompensated) elasticities for 12 food groups, 138 countries, and 5 SSPs, (2) their calibrated counterparts, and (3) the equivalent expansion and substitution parameters for a CDE demand system. These parameters can be applied in a wide range of scenario building and policy assessments.
{"title":"A taste of tomorrow: Predicting food demand elasticities under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways","authors":"Clara G. Bouyssou, Francesco Clora, Jørgen Dejgård Jensen, Wusheng Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103049","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103049","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Food policy assessments and food demand projections rely on demand elasticities. The elasticities used, however, often lack granularity and depend on <em>ad hoc</em> adjustments to make them evolve over time. In this study we explore an alternative approach using a <em>meta</em>-analysis database and the XGBoost machine learning algorithm to predict food demand elasticities. Next, we use the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) database to project the elasticities to 2030, 2040, and 2050. The elasticities are then calibrated to comply with theoretical conditions and used to parameterize the demand system in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Finally, using the CGE model, we illustrate the implications of the new parameters by simulating four sets of simple scenarios. As output files we provide (1) income, own-price, and cross-price (both compensated and uncompensated) elasticities for 12 food groups, 138 countries, and 5 SSPs, (2) their calibrated counterparts, and (3) the equivalent expansion and substitution parameters for a CDE demand system. These parameters can be applied in a wide range of scenario building and policy assessments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 103049"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144852164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-15DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103047
Maya Daurio
Place-based stewardship in mountain watersheds can play an important role in responding to and helping to mitigate different kinds of landscape-based hazards, including wildfire and post-fire flooding. In a world with more extreme wildfire, what does it mean to live with fire, where the impacts affect people and places across jurisdictions for many years after the fire itself? Drawing on over two years of ethnographic fieldwork including participant observation and interviews, I explore this question in the particular geographic and land use context of the Poudre Canyon in northern Colorado. Local stewardship practices in mountain communities can benefit populations beyond the fire perimeter. These may be rooted in ongoing relationships to the land, local, volunteer-based hazard mitigation and emergency response, and post-fire collaborative efforts. Using narrative analysis, I examine how landscapes at risk of fire are defined, how wildfire risk is communicated to those living in these landscapes in Colorado, and how discourses of risk and responsibility facilitate or constrain adaptation to living with extreme fire. I encourage an approach to risk communication that conceptualizes those who live in fire adapted landscapes as potential stewards. I also suggest that wildfire risk reduction efforts should be more geographically and socially expansive, to acknowledge that contending with wildfire and its associated hazards of smoke and flooding is a society-wide challenge, not just for those living in fire adapted landscapes. Living with fire is a process, and community members, practitioners, and scientists alike are reorienting toward a world with more extreme wildfire.
{"title":"Living with wildfire cultivating a stewardship framework","authors":"Maya Daurio","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103047","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103047","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Place-based stewardship in mountain watersheds can play an important role in responding to and helping to mitigate different kinds of landscape-based hazards, including wildfire and post-fire flooding. In a world with more extreme wildfire, what does it mean to live with fire, where the impacts affect people and places across jurisdictions for many years after the fire itself? Drawing on over two years of ethnographic fieldwork including participant observation and interviews, I explore this question in the particular geographic and land use context of the Poudre Canyon in northern Colorado. Local stewardship practices in mountain communities can benefit populations beyond the fire perimeter. These may be rooted in ongoing relationships to the land, local, volunteer-based hazard mitigation and emergency response, and post-fire collaborative efforts. Using narrative analysis, I examine how landscapes at risk of fire are defined, how wildfire risk is communicated to those living in these landscapes in Colorado, and how discourses of risk and responsibility facilitate or constrain adaptation to living with extreme fire. I encourage an approach to risk communication that conceptualizes those who live in fire adapted landscapes as potential stewards. I also suggest that wildfire risk reduction efforts should be more geographically and socially expansive, to acknowledge that contending with wildfire and its associated hazards of smoke and flooding is a society-wide challenge, not just for those living in fire adapted landscapes. Living with fire is a process, and community members, practitioners, and scientists alike are reorienting toward a world with more extreme wildfire.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 103047"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144841633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-13DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103046
Liliana Sierra Castillo , Caroline E. Ferguson Irlanda , Erendira Aceves-Bueno , Halley Froelich , Cristina Mancilla , Antonella Rivera , Steven D. Gaines
Aquaculture interventions and policies are now fundamental in sustainability agendas, particularly in supporting small-scale fisheries and coastal communities. These policies often rely on the “blue transitions” theory of change, which posits that an expansion of aquaculture will aid in recovering declining fish stocks and enhancing livelihoods. However, the blue transitions theory is relatively new, leaving many aspects uncertain, especially regarding how transition stages unfold and impact communities as they are expected to transform livelihoods. Frequently, these policies adopt a top-down approach driven by political and corporate interests at global or national levels, emphasizing environmental and economic benefits while neglecting local social, cultural, and historical contexts. This study aims to identify gaps in current blue transition policies at the local level through two empirical case studies in Baja California Sur, Mexico. Additionally, it evaluates the suitability of existing frameworks for incorporating justice in food system transitions for seafood system transitions and provides insights for developing more equitable blue food policies. Using an exploratory mixed methods approach from 2021 to 2023, including ethnography, interviews, surveys, and focus groups, this research delves into the complexities of aquaculture policies for communities going through blue transitions. Findings indicate that these policies often prioritize economic development over social, cultural, and historical considerations, leading to injustices within communities. The case studies reveal impacts and challenges such as intra-community conflict, illegal fishing, and threats to food security and resilience, as well as benefits like momentary economic gains. Applying a framework for just food system transitions, we advocate for flexible, community-centric policies that recognize local heterogeneity and empower communities to shape their transitions, including deciding whether a transition is appropriate. This study underscores the limitations of viewing aquaculture as a panacea for small-scale fisheries’ challenges, emphasizing the need for holistic, multiscale management approaches. Contextualizing blue transitions within local realities and prioritizing food justice can promote just and equitable outcomes that address the nuanced needs of diverse coastal communities amidst global pressures.
{"title":"Aquaculture isn’t always the answer: rethinking blue transitions through justice and community experience","authors":"Liliana Sierra Castillo , Caroline E. Ferguson Irlanda , Erendira Aceves-Bueno , Halley Froelich , Cristina Mancilla , Antonella Rivera , Steven D. Gaines","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103046","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103046","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Aquaculture interventions and policies are now fundamental in sustainability agendas, particularly in supporting small-scale fisheries and coastal communities. These policies often rely on the “blue transitions” theory of change, which posits that an expansion of aquaculture will aid in recovering declining fish stocks and enhancing livelihoods. However, the blue transitions theory is relatively new, leaving many aspects uncertain, especially regarding how transition stages unfold and impact communities as they are expected to transform livelihoods. Frequently, these policies adopt a top-down approach driven by political and corporate interests at global or national levels, emphasizing environmental and economic benefits while neglecting local social, cultural, and historical contexts. This study aims to identify gaps in current blue transition policies at the local level through two empirical case studies in Baja California Sur, Mexico. Additionally, it evaluates the suitability of existing frameworks for incorporating justice in food system transitions for seafood system transitions and provides insights for developing more equitable blue food policies. Using an exploratory mixed methods approach from 2021 to 2023, including ethnography, interviews, surveys, and focus groups, this research delves into the complexities of aquaculture policies for communities going through blue transitions. Findings indicate that these policies often prioritize economic development over social, cultural, and historical considerations, leading to injustices within communities. The case studies reveal impacts and challenges such as intra-community conflict, illegal fishing, and threats to food security and resilience, as well as benefits like momentary economic gains. Applying a framework for just food system transitions, we advocate for flexible, community-centric policies that recognize local heterogeneity and empower communities to shape their transitions, including deciding whether a transition is appropriate. This study underscores the limitations of viewing aquaculture as a panacea for small-scale fisheries’ challenges, emphasizing the need for holistic, multiscale management approaches. Contextualizing blue transitions within local realities and prioritizing food justice can promote just and equitable outcomes that address the nuanced needs of diverse coastal communities amidst global pressures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 103046"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144831584","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-13DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103044
Ammar Abulibdeh
Armed conflicts pose severe environmental challenges, particularly in densely populated and infrastructure-limited regions. The Gaza Strip exemplifies such a context, where the intersection of warfare, urban density, and environmental vulnerability demands urgent scientific inquiry. This study aims to assess the environmental impact of the 2023–2024 war on air quality in the Gaza Strip by examining temporal and spatial changes in key atmospheric pollutants. We use daily observations of five pollutants, nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), methane (CH4), and the ultraviolet aerosol index (UVAI), obtained from the Sentinel-5P TROPOspheric monitoring instrument (TROPOMI) satellite and combine these with meteorological data (temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation) to explore their behavior before and during the conflict. Our methodology integrates time-series analysis with statistical and machine learning models, including SARIMAX, Holt-Winters, Random Forest, and XGBoost, to forecast pollutant concentrations based on pre-war conditions and identify deviations post-October 2023. The findings reveal distinct responses to pollutants during the war. UVAI and CO showed sharp and sustained increases linked to widespread combustion and infrastructure damage, while CH4 concentrations exhibited a steady rise associated with the collapse of waste management. SO2 displayed episodic spikes, likely tied to fuel depot destruction and generator use, whereas NO2 trends showed temporary suppression due to mobility restrictions and reduced industrial activity. Our findings demonstrate that traditional forecasting models may require adaptation to conflict-specific conditions, given altered emission sources and rapid pollutant dispersal in a small geographic area like Gaza. Policy implications include the urgent need for conflict-sensitive environmental monitoring systems, the integration of satellite data into humanitarian planning, and the development of adaptive forecasting models that incorporate war-related variables, such as infrastructure damage and displacement patterns.
{"title":"Air pollution in Gaza during the post-october 7 era: a satellite and machine learning assessment","authors":"Ammar Abulibdeh","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103044","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103044","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Armed conflicts pose severe environmental challenges, particularly in densely populated and infrastructure-limited regions. The Gaza Strip exemplifies such a context, where the intersection of warfare, urban density, and environmental vulnerability demands urgent scientific inquiry. This study aims to assess the environmental impact of the 2023–2024 war on air quality in the Gaza Strip by examining temporal and spatial changes in key atmospheric pollutants. We use daily observations of five pollutants, nitrogen dioxide (NO<sub>2</sub>), sulfur dioxide (SO<sub>2</sub>), carbon monoxide (CO), methane (CH<sub>4</sub>), and the ultraviolet aerosol index (UVAI), obtained from the Sentinel-5P TROPOspheric monitoring instrument (TROPOMI) satellite and combine these with meteorological data (temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation) to explore their behavior before and during the conflict. Our methodology integrates time-series analysis with statistical and machine learning models, including SARIMAX, Holt-Winters, Random Forest, and XGBoost, to forecast pollutant concentrations based on pre-war conditions and identify deviations post-October 2023. The findings reveal distinct responses to pollutants during the war. UVAI and CO showed sharp and sustained increases linked to widespread combustion and infrastructure damage, while CH<sub>4</sub> concentrations exhibited a steady rise associated with the collapse of waste management. SO<sub>2</sub> displayed episodic spikes, likely tied to fuel depot destruction and generator use, whereas NO<sub>2</sub> trends showed temporary suppression due to mobility restrictions and reduced industrial activity. Our findings demonstrate that traditional forecasting models may require adaptation to conflict-specific conditions, given altered emission sources and rapid pollutant dispersal in a small geographic area like Gaza. Policy implications include the urgent need for conflict-sensitive environmental monitoring systems, the integration of satellite data into humanitarian planning, and the development of adaptive forecasting models that incorporate war-related variables, such as infrastructure damage and displacement patterns.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 103044"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144831583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-12DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103045
Godfreyb Ssekajja
One would expect the growing environmental validation of coercion to jolt scholars out of the ’dogmatic slumber’ in which the preeminence of participatory procedures and inalienable rights is often taken for granted. Yet, as climate change is increasingly invoked to justify coercive environmentalism, the political consequences of this emerging paradigm remain underexamined. The perceived effectiveness of authoritarian regimes, such as China, in addressing ecological crises is contributing to a shift from participatory to coercive approaches. This trend not only raises the risk of democratic backsliding but also poses concerns about implications for political legitimacy. This paper examines the relationship between coercive governance, environmental crisis management, and political legitimacy. It uses field surveys and interviews to assess how the 2015 deployment of soldiers to enforce fisheries regulations influences support for regime institutions and evaluations of regime performance. The findings show that the militarized policy undermines legitimacy, as indicated by both the widespread opposition it generates and the negative assessments of government, stemming from heightened social inequalities—within and between communities—and reduced community involvement in fisheries management. Additionally, while many participants perceive improved fisheries protection, this does not equate to enhanced legitimacy, as these perceptions do not translate into support for the policy or the government overall. Instead, increased conflict—both between fishers and soldiers, and among the fishers themselves—along with reports of heightened personal insecurity, further suggests that the policy undermines legitimacy. This evidence of failure to secure widespread legitimacy implies that, for long-term sustainability, coercive measures must eventually give way to strategies that foster communal ownership and active participation.
{"title":"Coercive environmentalism and political legitimacy in the age of climate change: the case of fisheries in Uganda","authors":"Godfreyb Ssekajja","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103045","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103045","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>One would expect the growing environmental validation of coercion to jolt scholars out of the ’dogmatic slumber’ in which the preeminence of participatory procedures and inalienable rights is often taken for granted. Yet, as climate change is increasingly invoked to justify coercive environmentalism, the political consequences of this emerging paradigm remain underexamined. The perceived effectiveness of authoritarian regimes, such as China, in addressing ecological crises is contributing to a shift from participatory to coercive approaches. This trend not only raises the risk of democratic backsliding but also poses concerns about implications for political legitimacy. This paper examines the relationship between coercive governance, environmental crisis management, and political legitimacy. It uses field surveys and interviews to assess how the 2015 deployment of soldiers to enforce fisheries regulations influences support for regime institutions and evaluations of regime performance. The findings show that the militarized policy undermines legitimacy, as indicated by both the widespread opposition it generates and the negative assessments of government, stemming from heightened social inequalities—within and between communities—and reduced community involvement in fisheries management. Additionally, while many participants perceive improved fisheries protection, this does not equate to enhanced legitimacy, as these perceptions do not translate into support for the policy or the government overall. Instead, increased conflict—both between fishers and soldiers, and among the fishers themselves—along with reports of heightened personal insecurity, further suggests that the policy undermines legitimacy. This evidence of failure to secure widespread legitimacy implies that, for long-term sustainability, coercive measures must eventually give way to strategies that foster communal ownership and active participation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 103045"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144827462","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-21DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103041
Pablo Neudörfer , Patricio Valdivieso
Does social capital guide municipalities toward improved investment in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation? This article investigates whether communities with high vulnerability to climate change risks and strong social capital traits are more likely to invest in preparedness for climate change disasters. We leverage the exogenous variation of local downpours in Chile from 2009 to 2018 as a catalyst for increased awareness to examine the effects of social capital on public investment in adaptation. Our findings reveal that linking and bridging social capital levels affect preparedness as communities experience more downpours, while bonding social capital levels have no effect. These results suggest that linking and bridging could steer policymakers toward increased investment, contributing to more resilient and sustainable communities in the face of climate change. Furthermore, social capital may have the potential to shift policymakers’ focus from popular short-term disaster relief spending to long-term preparedness investments.
{"title":"Social capital as a policy catalyst: Enhancing municipal investment in climate risk reduction and adaptation","authors":"Pablo Neudörfer , Patricio Valdivieso","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103041","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103041","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Does social capital guide municipalities toward improved investment in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation? This article investigates whether communities with high vulnerability to climate change risks and strong social capital traits are more likely to invest in preparedness for climate change disasters. We leverage the exogenous variation of local downpours in Chile from 2009 to 2018 as a catalyst for increased awareness to examine the effects of social capital on public investment in adaptation. Our findings reveal that linking and bridging social capital levels affect preparedness as communities experience more downpours, while bonding social capital levels have no effect. These results suggest that linking and bridging could steer policymakers toward increased investment, contributing to more resilient and sustainable communities in the face of climate change. Furthermore, social capital may have the potential to shift policymakers’ focus from popular short-term disaster relief spending to long-term preparedness investments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 103041"},"PeriodicalIF":8.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144680022","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-19DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103039
Dabwiso Sakala, Maria J. Santos
Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) and climate change (CC) effects on carbon dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have the potential to transition the region’s carbon balance from sink to source. Future shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) for SSA show high vulnerability to CC, high urbanisation, and cropland and pasture demands expected to rise in the coming decades. Yet the realisations of these pathways may be biome-specific as these are expected to behave differently when it comes to carbon dynamics and also be affected by different demands. Here, we examine the impacts of LULCC and CC on Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE), Net Primary Productivity (NPP), and carbon turnover time of six SSA biomes, namely tropical rainforest, montane forest, moist savanna, dry savanna, temperate grassland and semi-desert, between 2015–2100 for the five SSPs. We performed four simulations where we (i) kept LULCC and CC constant, (ii) varied LULCC and kept CC constant, (iii) kept LULCC constant and varied CC, and (iv) varied both LULCC and CC and calculated their effect on NEE, NPP and carbon turnover time. We find that LULCC effects supersede those of CC, resulting in a net carbon source despite the sink effect of CC. LULCC alone drives major carbon losses across all scenarios, with moist and dry savannas resulting in the strongest carbon sources with cumulative NEE values of 74.93 and 44.85 PgC by 2100 under SSP4. In contrast, CC alone led to consistent carbon sinks across all scenarios in the semi-desert and tropical rainforest, with the strongest sinks observed under SSP5 (−8.36 PgC and − 3.77 PgC, respectively). Moist savanna also acted as a sink under SSP5 (−4.82 PgC) and SSP3 (−1.73 PgC). Combined effects largely reflect LULCC trends, confirming its dominant role in shaping future carbon dynamics. We further observe that intensifying LULCC may decrease biome carbon turnover time by 50 %, especially in tropical rainforests under SSP3 and SSP4. These results suggest that the CC-induced carbon sinks will unlikely dampen the increasing emissions from LULCC in SSA that may not be offset by 2100. Ultimately, our study demonstrates that sustaining SSA as a carbon sink will require urgent, biome-specific land management policies that integrate socioeconomic realities with the region’s evolving climate and development pathways.
{"title":"Projected land-use change emissions surpass climate change-induced carbon sinks in Sub-Saharan African biomes","authors":"Dabwiso Sakala, Maria J. Santos","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103039","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103039","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) and climate change (CC) effects on carbon dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have the potential to transition the region’s carbon balance from sink to source. Future shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) for SSA show high vulnerability to CC, high urbanisation, and cropland and pasture demands expected to rise in the coming decades. Yet the realisations of these pathways may be biome-specific as these are expected to behave differently when it comes to carbon dynamics and also be affected by different demands. Here, we examine the impacts of LULCC and CC on Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE), Net Primary Productivity (NPP), and carbon turnover time of six SSA biomes, namely tropical rainforest, montane forest, moist savanna, dry savanna, temperate grassland and semi-desert, between 2015–2100 for the five SSPs. We performed four simulations where we (i) kept LULCC and CC constant, (ii) varied LULCC and kept CC constant, (iii) kept LULCC constant and varied CC, and (iv) varied both LULCC and CC and calculated their effect on NEE, NPP and carbon turnover time. We find that LULCC effects supersede those of CC, resulting in a net carbon source despite the sink effect of CC. LULCC alone drives major carbon losses across all scenarios, with moist and dry savannas resulting in the strongest carbon sources with cumulative NEE values of 74.93 and 44.85 PgC by 2100 under SSP4. In contrast, CC alone led to consistent carbon sinks across all scenarios in the semi-desert and tropical rainforest, with the strongest sinks observed under SSP5 (−8.36 PgC and − 3.77 PgC, respectively). Moist savanna also acted as a sink under SSP5 (−4.82 PgC) and SSP3 (−1.73 PgC). Combined effects largely reflect LULCC trends, confirming its dominant role in shaping future carbon dynamics. We further observe that intensifying LULCC may decrease biome carbon turnover time by 50 %, especially in tropical rainforests under SSP3 and SSP4. These results suggest that the CC-induced carbon sinks will unlikely dampen the increasing emissions from LULCC in SSA that may not be offset by 2100. Ultimately, our study demonstrates that sustaining SSA as a carbon sink will require urgent, biome-specific land management policies that integrate socioeconomic realities with the region’s evolving climate and development pathways.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 103039"},"PeriodicalIF":8.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144662308","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-15DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103042
Michelle Bonatti , Renata Guimarães Reynaldo , Berta Martín-López , Sergio Bolivar , María Cordero-Fernández , Giovanna Chavez Miguel , Adriana Martin , Janika Hämmerle , Barbara Schröter , Carla Erismann , Teresa da Silva Rosa , Jon Hellin , Izabella Schlindwein , Álvaro Acevedo Osorio , Leonardo Medina , Carla Baldivieso , Luca Eufemia , Johanna Jacobi , Ana Maria Lobo Guerrero , Stefan Sieber
Agroecological transitions represent strategic pathways for transforming agricultural systems to meet urgent global sustainability goals. These transitions encompass fundamental changes in social-ecological relationships, knowledge systems, and power dynamics within food systems. However, the mechanisms facilitating such transitions remain insufficiently understood, particularly regarding the diversity and efficacy of pedagogical models employed in existing agroecological initiatives. This knowledge gap is especially pronounced within Global South contexts, especially Latin America, where decolonial approaches hold particular relevance and tradition within effective agroecology initiatives. Using a decolonial lens, this study explores the pedagogical models used in community-led agroecological initiatives in Brazil, Colombia, and Peru. Drawing on semi-structured interviews and workshops (n 140), alongside participant observations, we applied a qualitative archetypes analysis to examine three community-led agroecology initiatives. We identified three distinct but interconnected contextual narratives: a. Living Pedagogies; b. Resistance Pedagogies; and c. Hybrid Pedagogies. Despite these different contextual narratives, they share clear patterns, which allowed us to identify one major archetype − the South pedagogies archetype. The decolonial pedagogy found can be fundamental to accelerate agroecological transitions. Traditional communities in Colombia and Peru have preserved and evolved their agroecology knowledge systems through generations of collective learning, offering profound insights into sustainable food production that transcend the limitations of Western scientific methodologies. In parallel, decolonial pedagogies in the Brazilian case were essential to promote urban agroecological transition that started during the 2000s. These findings inform agroecological transition development based on learning processes that value multiple ways of being.
{"title":"Uncovering decolonial pedagogies for learning agroecological transitions: comparative analysis of South America cases","authors":"Michelle Bonatti , Renata Guimarães Reynaldo , Berta Martín-López , Sergio Bolivar , María Cordero-Fernández , Giovanna Chavez Miguel , Adriana Martin , Janika Hämmerle , Barbara Schröter , Carla Erismann , Teresa da Silva Rosa , Jon Hellin , Izabella Schlindwein , Álvaro Acevedo Osorio , Leonardo Medina , Carla Baldivieso , Luca Eufemia , Johanna Jacobi , Ana Maria Lobo Guerrero , Stefan Sieber","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103042","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103042","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Agroecological transitions represent strategic pathways for transforming agricultural systems to meet urgent global sustainability goals. These transitions encompass fundamental changes in social-ecological relationships, knowledge systems, and power dynamics within food systems. However, the mechanisms facilitating such transitions remain insufficiently understood, particularly regarding the diversity and efficacy of pedagogical models employed in existing agroecological initiatives. This knowledge gap is especially pronounced within Global South contexts, especially Latin America, where decolonial approaches hold particular relevance and tradition within effective agroecology initiatives. Using a decolonial lens, this study explores the pedagogical models used in community-led agroecological initiatives in Brazil, Colombia, and Peru. Drawing on semi-structured interviews and workshops (n 140), alongside participant observations, we applied a qualitative archetypes analysis to examine three community-led agroecology initiatives. We identified three distinct but interconnected contextual narratives: a. Living Pedagogies; b. Resistance Pedagogies; and c. Hybrid Pedagogies. Despite these different contextual narratives, they share clear patterns, which allowed us to identify one major archetype − the South pedagogies archetype. The decolonial pedagogy found can be fundamental to accelerate agroecological transitions. Traditional communities in Colombia and Peru have preserved and evolved their agroecology knowledge systems through generations of collective learning, offering profound insights into sustainable food production that transcend the limitations of Western scientific methodologies. In parallel, decolonial pedagogies in the Brazilian case were essential to promote urban agroecological transition that started during the 2000s. These findings inform agroecological transition development based on learning processes that value multiple ways of being.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 103042"},"PeriodicalIF":8.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144631406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-12DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103040
Li-Jing Liu , Qiao-Mei Liang , Felix Creutzig , Hua Tong , Yu-Xuan Xiao , Xiang-Yan Qian , Hao Wang , Si-Yi Wei , Xiao-Chen Yuan , Biying Yu , Lan-Cui Liu , Yi-Ming Wei
Achieving the 1.5°C target will entail a temporary overshoot, with peak temperatures potentially exceeding 1.7°C before declining towards the end of the century. This study examines how different economic growth patterns, energy transitions, and non-CO2 mitigation strategies influence this trajectory. Our simulations reveal that achieving this target requires confining cumulative CO2 emissions to 220–370 GtCO2 by 2100, with a peak around 2060 of 530–650 GtCO2. Key to success is the transition to net-zero CO2 by 2060 and the implementation of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies. Effective reductions in CH4 and N2O are vital for minimizing additional warming. Significant co-benefits include improved air quality, with SO2 and NOx emissions decreasing by 60–80 %, enhancing public health. However, aggressive climate policies and resulting high fertilizer prices may reduce food crop yields by up to 16.8 %, highlighting the need to integrate climate and agricultural strategies to balance emission reductions with food security and achieve long-term climate and sustainability goals. The deployment of CDR technologies with low land footprint, such as direct air capture, could help alleviate land-based trade-offs.
{"title":"Overshoot, potential air pollution co-benefits and food shortages","authors":"Li-Jing Liu , Qiao-Mei Liang , Felix Creutzig , Hua Tong , Yu-Xuan Xiao , Xiang-Yan Qian , Hao Wang , Si-Yi Wei , Xiao-Chen Yuan , Biying Yu , Lan-Cui Liu , Yi-Ming Wei","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103040","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103040","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Achieving the 1.5°C target will entail a temporary overshoot, with peak temperatures potentially exceeding 1.7°C before declining towards the end of the century. This study examines how different economic growth patterns, energy transitions, and non-CO<sub>2</sub> mitigation strategies influence this trajectory. Our simulations reveal that achieving this target requires confining cumulative CO<sub>2</sub> emissions to 220–370 GtCO<sub>2</sub> by 2100, with a peak around 2060 of 530–650 GtCO<sub>2</sub>. Key to success is the transition to net-zero CO<sub>2</sub> by 2060 and the implementation of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies. Effective reductions in CH<sub>4</sub> and N<sub>2</sub>O are vital for minimizing additional warming. Significant co-benefits include improved air quality, with SO<sub>2</sub> and NOx emissions decreasing by 60–80 %, enhancing public health. However, aggressive climate policies and resulting high fertilizer prices may reduce food crop yields by up to 16.8 %, highlighting the need to integrate climate and agricultural strategies to balance emission reductions with food security and achieve long-term climate and sustainability goals. The deployment of CDR technologies with low land footprint, such as direct air capture, could help alleviate land-based trade-offs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 103040"},"PeriodicalIF":8.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144604243","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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