Global Environmental Change最新文献

{"title":"Projected land-use change emissions surpass climate change-induced carbon sinks in Sub-Saharan African biomes","authors":"Dabwiso Sakala,&nbsp;Maria J. Santos","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103039","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103039","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) and climate change (CC) effects on carbon dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have the potential to transition the region’s carbon balance from sink to source. Future shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) for SSA show high vulnerability to CC, high urbanisation, and cropland and pasture demands expected to rise in the coming decades. Yet the realisations of these pathways may be biome-specific as these are expected to behave differently when it comes to carbon dynamics and also be affected by different demands. Here, we examine the impacts of LULCC and CC on Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE), Net Primary Productivity (NPP), and carbon turnover time of six SSA biomes, namely tropical rainforest, montane forest, moist savanna, dry savanna, temperate grassland and semi-desert, between 2015–2100 for the five SSPs. We performed four simulations where we (i) kept LULCC and CC constant, (ii) varied LULCC and kept CC constant, (iii) kept LULCC constant and varied CC, and (iv) varied both LULCC and CC and calculated their effect on NEE, NPP and carbon turnover time. We find that LULCC effects supersede those of CC, resulting in a net carbon source despite the sink effect of CC. LULCC alone drives major carbon losses across all scenarios, with moist and dry savannas resulting in the strongest carbon sources with cumulative NEE values of 74.93 and 44.85 PgC by 2100 under SSP4. In contrast, CC alone led to consistent carbon sinks across all scenarios in the semi-desert and tropical rainforest, with the strongest sinks observed under SSP5 (−8.36 PgC and − 3.77 PgC, respectively). Moist savanna also acted as a sink under SSP5 (−4.82 PgC) and SSP3 (−1.73 PgC). Combined effects largely reflect LULCC trends, confirming its dominant role in shaping future carbon dynamics. We further observe that intensifying LULCC may decrease biome carbon turnover time by 50 %, especially in tropical rainforests under SSP3 and SSP4. These results suggest that the CC-induced carbon sinks will unlikely dampen the increasing emissions from LULCC in SSA that may not be offset by 2100. Ultimately, our study demonstrates that sustaining SSA as a carbon sink will require urgent, biome-specific land management policies that integrate socioeconomic realities with the region’s evolving climate and development pathways.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 103039"},"PeriodicalIF":8.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144662308","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Realising a locally-embedded just transition: Sense of place, lived experience, and social perceptions of industrial decarbonisation in the United Kingdom","authors":"Benjamin K. Sovacool ,&nbsp;Patrick Devine-Wright ,&nbsp;Sarah Mander ,&nbsp;Jordan Rowley ,&nbsp;Stacia Ryder","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103051","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103051","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Communities and workers in England, Scotland and Wales are facing historic local transitions amid a rapidly changing climate and growing political and economic inequality. Those within industrial clusters seeking better treatment of workers, vulnerable and marginalized groups, and the environment demand that action to combat the climate crisis contribute to “just transitions.” Yet what constitutes a just transition is subjective, involving competing claims and tensions between key advocates about what has been (un)just and what is required to advance more fair and equitable outcomes. This study brings into view the perspectives of those not typically at the decision-making table. We build from previous projects collecting the “lived experiences” that aim to lift-up diverse voices from local communities. Our approach uses original semi-structured interviews (N = 24), focus groups (six with N = 45 total participants), participant observation in England, Scotland and Wales coupled with local surveys in three clusters (n = 600) and nationally representative survey data (N = 1,178 respondents), all of which were conducted from June 2022 – November 2024. We identify five themes arising from these data: place-based perceptions and local identities, potent lived experiences of injustice, technology-specific concerns, issues of trust and awareness, and issues concerning policy and governance. We then discuss these five themes considering recent literature on recognition justice and sense of place, procedural justice and community engagement, and distributive justice and localising benefits. The resulting evidence provides insight as to how net-zero industrial transitions are perceived by local communities, and data from the national survey allows us to show how local perspectives align and resonate with UK publics on a national scale.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 103051"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144896681","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How is international CCS discussed locally? The case of Iceland","authors":"Juanita von Rothkirch ,&nbsp;Bjarnhéðinn Guðlaugsson ,&nbsp;David Christian Finger ,&nbsp;Michael Stauffacher","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103048","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103048","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Communities and scholars have long highlighted the need to attend to public concerns in carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects. Many large-scale CCS deployments are expected to be cross-border projects, posing specific questions in local communities. These questions may relate to the perceived lack of local benefits, why local emissions are not prioritized, and the feeling that each country should deal with its own emissions. We used qualitative research methods, including a thematic analysis of interviews and newspaper articles, to study local perceptions of the Coda Terminal project in Iceland, which is set to become one of the first international CCS hubs. Our results show that the project was depicted as an innovative solution to a global problem, with little impact at its implementation site. At the same time, the innovative nature of the project raised concerns about its scale, the associated risks, and the perception that it imports “waste” from other countries. Concerns have been heightened by the perceived marginalization of opposing voices, including those opposed to importing CO₂. We observed that opportunities to have a productive conversation on the import were obstructed by actors focusing on the correct definition of CO₂ instead of listening to and understanding people’s framings. We provide insights on how thinking about the why, who, and when of technology-tailored public participation can improve the dialogue around cross-border CCS.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 103048"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144925252","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Justice washing extractivism: Pacific Island activist perspectives on just transitions and deep-sea mining","authors":"Jason Titifanue","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103053","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103053","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The notion of the just transition highlights that shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energies should leave no one marginalised, and benefits should be distributed in an equitable and just manner. In this context, a new frontier of resource extractivism is emerging – Deep-Sea Mining (DSM) – which proponents seek to position as a <em>just</em> means of acquiring critical metals and minerals used in renewable energy technologies. Drawing on postcolonial theories of island laboratories, this paper scrutinises DSM and the scramble for minerals by corporations, states, and state groupings. First, through a review of literature, the paper critically examines arguments for DSM that position it as a pathway towards just transition, including through purported benefits to nations in the Pacific Islands Region. Next, drawing on primary data collected during 2023–24 including interviews with Pacific Island climate activists (n = 45), it highlights activist understandings of DSM as perpetuating historic and ongoing colonialism, extractivism, and experimentation in the Pacific Islands Region. Far from a standalone issue, Pacific activists draw on principles of decolonisation and self-determination to engage with the intersecting crises of climate change, extractivism, and to resist DSM. Using DSM as a case study, this paper contends that the plight faced by Pacific Peoples due to the climate crisis, has been weaponised to justice wash extractivism as a climate solution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 103053"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144931615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Social capital as a policy catalyst: Enhancing municipal investment in climate risk reduction and adaptation","authors":"Pablo Neudörfer ,&nbsp;Patricio Valdivieso","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103041","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103041","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Does social capital guide municipalities toward improved investment in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation? This article investigates whether communities with high vulnerability to climate change risks and strong social capital traits are more likely to invest in preparedness for climate change disasters. We leverage the exogenous variation of local downpours in Chile from 2009 to 2018 as a catalyst for increased awareness to examine the effects of social capital on public investment in adaptation. Our findings reveal that linking and bridging social capital levels affect preparedness as communities experience more downpours, while bonding social capital levels have no effect. These results suggest that linking and bridging could steer policymakers toward increased investment, contributing to more resilient and sustainable communities in the face of climate change. Furthermore, social capital may have the potential to shift policymakers’ focus from popular short-term disaster relief spending to long-term preparedness investments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 103041"},"PeriodicalIF":8.6,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144680022","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Weathering change: Longitudinal patterns of residential mobility following extreme weather events in Australia","authors":"Sasha Bacquet-Carlier ,&nbsp;Aude Bernard ,&nbsp;Francisco Perales","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103050","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103050","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>There is growing evidence of disaster-induced mobility. However, most research focuses on immediate displacement, limiting our ability to understand the long-term consequences of extreme weather events on residential mobility. To address this gap, this study establishes the relationships between home damage caused by bushfires, floods, and cyclones and ensuing residential mobility in the following five years. Using nationally representative individual-level data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey from 2009 to 2023, we use finite distributed lag logistic models to determine the level, timing, and direction of weather-induced mobility, distinguishing between onward and return movement and distance moved. While most moves occur in the immediate aftermath of an extreme weather event, results indicate that weather-induced home damage increases the odds of moving for up to three years. Four distinct mobility patterns emerge: (1) <em>immediate relocation</em>, which brings some moves forward, (2) <em>delayed displacement</em> up to three years later, particularly over short distances, (3) <em>short-term displacement</em> followed by return, and (4) <em>repeat onward migration</em>. Younger adults and renters are more likely to be involved in all mobility types. Tertiary-educated individuals are less likely to return, but more likely to move repeatedly, while separated individuals are more likely to be delayed movers. The diversity of mobility responses underscores the conceptual and methodological complexities of estimating weather-induced population movement and the need for nuance and caution, while showing the benefits of distributed lag models to capture time dynamics. Our findings also highlight the need for targeted support mechanisms that account for different mobility trajectories and varying constraints faced by sub-population groups in the aftermath of extreme weather events.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 103050"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144925253","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Living with wildfire cultivating a stewardship framework","authors":"Maya Daurio","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103047","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103047","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Place-based stewardship in mountain watersheds can play an important role in responding to and helping to mitigate different kinds of landscape-based hazards, including wildfire and post-fire flooding. In a world with more extreme wildfire, what does it mean to live with fire, where the impacts affect people and places across jurisdictions for many years after the fire itself? Drawing on over two years of ethnographic fieldwork including participant observation and interviews, I explore this question in the particular geographic and land use context of the Poudre Canyon in northern Colorado. Local stewardship practices in mountain communities can benefit populations beyond the fire perimeter. These may be rooted in ongoing relationships to the land, local, volunteer-based hazard mitigation and emergency response, and post-fire collaborative efforts. Using narrative analysis, I examine how landscapes at risk of fire are defined, how wildfire risk is communicated to those living in these landscapes in Colorado, and how discourses of risk and responsibility facilitate or constrain adaptation to living with extreme fire. I encourage an approach to risk communication that conceptualizes those who live in fire adapted landscapes as potential stewards. I also suggest that wildfire risk reduction efforts should be more geographically and socially expansive, to acknowledge that contending with wildfire and its associated hazards of smoke and flooding is a society-wide challenge, not just for those living in fire adapted landscapes. Living with fire is a process, and community members, practitioners, and scientists alike are reorienting toward a world with more extreme wildfire.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 103047"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144841633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Aquaculture isn’t always the answer: rethinking blue transitions through justice and community experience","authors":"Liliana Sierra Castillo ,&nbsp;Caroline E. Ferguson Irlanda ,&nbsp;Erendira Aceves-Bueno ,&nbsp;Halley Froelich ,&nbsp;Cristina Mancilla ,&nbsp;Antonella Rivera ,&nbsp;Steven D. Gaines","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103046","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103046","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Aquaculture interventions and policies are now fundamental in sustainability agendas, particularly in supporting small-scale fisheries and coastal communities. These policies often rely on the “blue transitions” theory of change, which posits that an expansion of aquaculture will aid in recovering declining fish stocks and enhancing livelihoods. However, the blue transitions theory is relatively new, leaving many aspects uncertain, especially regarding how transition stages unfold and impact communities as they are expected to transform livelihoods. Frequently, these policies adopt a top-down approach driven by political and corporate interests at global or national levels, emphasizing environmental and economic benefits while neglecting local social, cultural, and historical contexts. This study aims to identify gaps in current blue transition policies at the local level through two empirical case studies in Baja California Sur, Mexico. Additionally, it evaluates the suitability of existing frameworks for incorporating justice in food system transitions for seafood system transitions and provides insights for developing more equitable blue food policies. Using an exploratory mixed methods approach from 2021 to 2023, including ethnography, interviews, surveys, and focus groups, this research delves into the complexities of aquaculture policies for communities going through blue transitions. Findings indicate that these policies often prioritize economic development over social, cultural, and historical considerations, leading to injustices within communities. The case studies reveal impacts and challenges such as intra-community conflict, illegal fishing, and threats to food security and resilience, as well as benefits like momentary economic gains. Applying a framework for just food system transitions, we advocate for flexible, community-centric policies that recognize local heterogeneity and empower communities to shape their transitions, including deciding whether a transition is appropriate. This study underscores the limitations of viewing aquaculture as a panacea for small-scale fisheries’ challenges, emphasizing the need for holistic, multiscale management approaches. Contextualizing blue transitions within local realities and prioritizing food justice can promote just and equitable outcomes that address the nuanced needs of diverse coastal communities amidst global pressures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 103046"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144831584","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Medical expenditures under climate change and SSP-informed physiological and socioeconomic scenarios in China","authors":"Dianyu Zhu ,&nbsp;Miaomiao Liu ,&nbsp;Yuli Shan ,&nbsp;Ruoqi Li ,&nbsp;Haofan Zhang ,&nbsp;Yuan Li ,&nbsp;Jun Bi ,&nbsp;Klaus Hubacek","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103052","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103052","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change is reshaping global health burdens, but its financial impacts through increased household medical expenditures remain underexplored. This study integrated random forest techniques and 264,302 daily bank transaction data from 271 Chinese cities (2017–2019) to simulate household medical expenditure responses to climate change. To observe the heterogeneity among different cities, cities are categorized into 14 city groups based on their historical temperature and economic conditions to build simulation models. We further projected the future household medical expenditures in different cities under four Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), considering the pure effects of climate change and sensitivity changes under SSP-informed socioeconomic and physiological scenarios. We find that households in higher-income cities and cities with historically low temperatures have enhanced resilience to heat and cold, respectively. Climate change is projected to slightly decrease household medical expenses in China by 5.2% (SSP126) to 5.6% (SSP585) in 2060, attributed to fewer cold-related medical expenditures. Under the physiological scenarios, enhanced body system functions are projected to reduce medical expenditures by 19.5% (SSP245) to 27.6% (SSP585) by 2060. Rising incomes under socioeconomic scenarios may stimulate healthcare demand and drive expenditures up by 4.9% (SSP370) to 22.5% (SSP585). The findings highlight the importance of incorporating the moderating role of adaptation in devising tailored strategies to alleviate the household health-related economic strains induced by climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 103052"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144891960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A taste of tomorrow: Predicting food demand elasticities under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways","authors":"Clara G. Bouyssou,&nbsp;Francesco Clora,&nbsp;Jørgen Dejgård Jensen,&nbsp;Wusheng Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103049","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103049","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Food policy assessments and food demand projections rely on demand elasticities. The elasticities used, however, often lack granularity and depend on <em>ad hoc</em> adjustments to make them evolve over time. In this study we explore an alternative approach using a <em>meta</em>-analysis database and the XGBoost machine learning algorithm to predict food demand elasticities. Next, we use the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) database to project the elasticities to 2030, 2040, and 2050. The elasticities are then calibrated to comply with theoretical conditions and used to parameterize the demand system in a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Finally, using the CGE model, we illustrate the implications of the new parameters by simulating four sets of simple scenarios. As output files we provide (1) income, own-price, and cross-price (both compensated and uncompensated) elasticities for 12 food groups, 138 countries, and 5 SSPs, (2) their calibrated counterparts, and (3) the equivalent expansion and substitution parameters for a CDE demand system. These parameters can be applied in a wide range of scenario building and policy assessments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 103049"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144852164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}