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Habitability for a connected, unequal and changing world 互联、不平等和不断变化的世界的宜居性
IF 8.6 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-11-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102953
Harald Sterly , Marion Borderon , Patrick Sakdapolrak , Neil Adger , Ayansina Ayanlade , Alassane Bah , Julia Blocher , Suzy Blondin , Sidy Boly , Timothée Brochier , Loïc Brüning , Simon Bunchuay-Peth , David O’Byrne , Ricardo Safra De Campos , Samuel Nii Ardey Codjoe , Florian Debève , Adrien Detges , Maria Franco-Gavonel , Claire Hathaway , Nikki Funke , Caroline Zickgraf
As global climate change intensifies, the question of what makes a place habitable or uninhabitable is critical, particularly in the context of a potential future climate outside the realm of lived experience, and the possible concurrent redistribution of populations partly associated with such climatic shifts. The concept of habitability holds the potential for advancing the understanding of the societal consequences of climate change, as well as for integrating systemic understandings and rights-based approaches. However, most ways of analyzing habitability have shortcomings in terms of in-depth integration of socio-cultural aspects and human agency in shaping habitability, in failing to address spatial inequalities and power dynamics, and in an underemphasis of the connectedness of places. Here we elaborate habitability as an emergent property of the relations between people and a given place that results from people’s interactions with the material and immaterial properties of a place. From this, we identify four axes that are necessary to go beyond environmental changes, and to encompass socio-cultural, economic, and political dynamics: First the processes that influence habitability require a systemic approach, viewing habitability as an outcome of ecological, economic, and political processes. Second, the role of socio-cultural dimensions of habitability requires special consideration, given their own operational logics and functioning of social systems. Third, habitability is not the same for everyone, thus a comprehensive understanding of habitability requires an intersectionally differentiated view on social inequalities. Forth, the influence of external factors necessitates a spatially relational perspective on places in the context of their connections to distant places across scales. We identify key principles that should guide an equitable and responsible research agenda on habitability. Analysis should be based on disciplinary and methodological pluralism and the inclusion of local perspectives. Habitability action should integrate local perspectives with measures that go beyond purely subjective assessments. And habitability should consider the role of powerful actors, while staying engaged with ethical questions of who defines and enacts the future of any given place.
随着全球气候变化的加剧,"什么地方适合居住 "或 "什么地方不适合居住 "的问题至关重要,特别是在未来潜在的气候超出人们生活经验范围的情况下,以及可能同时发生的部分与这种气候转变相关的人口重新分布的情况下。可居住性的概念有可能促进对气候变化的社会后果的理解,并将系统性理解和基于权利的方法结合起来。然而,大多数分析宜居性的方法都存在缺陷,如没有深入整合社会文化因素和人类在塑造宜居性过程中的作用,没有解决空间不平等和权力动态问题,以及没有充分强调地方之间的关联性。在此,我们将宜居性阐述为人与特定场所之间关系的一种新兴属性,它是人们与场所的物质和非物质属性相互作用的结果。由此,我们确定了超越环境变化、涵盖社会文化、经济和政治动态的四个必要轴心:首先,影响宜居性的过程需要采用系统方法,将宜居性视为生态、经济和政治过程的结果。其次,考虑到宜居性的社会文化因素自身的运作逻辑和社会系统的功能,需要特别考虑这些因素的作用。第三,并非每个人的宜居性都是一样的,因此,要全面理解宜居性,就必须从交叉的角度来看待社会不平等问题。第四,由于外部因素的影响,需要从空间关系的角度来看待地方与远方的跨尺度联系。我们确定了一些关键原则,这些原则应指导关于宜居性的公平、负责任的研究议程。分析应基于学科和方法的多元化,并纳入地方视角。宜居行动应结合当地视角,采取超越纯主观评估的措施。宜居性研究应考虑有权势的行动者的作用,同时关注由谁来定义和制定任何特定地方的未来的伦理问题。
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引用次数: 0
The curve: An ethnography of projecting sea level rise under uncertainty 曲线:在不确定情况下预测海平面上升的人种学研究
IF 8.6 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-11-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102947
Jessica O’Reilly , Michael Oppenheimer
Drawing from a multiyear series of interviews with sea level rise assessors during the development of IPCC’s Working Group I volume of the Sixth Assessment Report—the first time access had been granted to researchers to observe the IPCC process—this article analyzes the social and epistemic challenges and tools (both technical and social) involved in assessing complex, uncertain science questions. This study shows that “the curve”, a representation of future sea level rise, is an example of the human dimensions of the science/policy interaction in three ways. First, IPCC authors’ experiences demonstrate that it is not just the communicative outcomes or political feedback from assessment reports that matter, but also the social and expert processes that produce these assessments. Attempting new assessment techniques to improve understandings of climate science can also improve broader society’s understanding of climate science, impacts and solutions. Second, the human side of global environmental assessments influences the credibility of these organizations. Expert authors accept these volunteer jobs for multiple reasons but their perception of the social experience of assessment influences their buy-in, and ultimately, the legitimacy of the organization. Third, the IPCC is increasingly formalizing its procedures for figure design and generally supports author experimentation with figures. However, less is known about how the social dynamics of chapter teams influences figure design and other assessment elements: we demonstrate this through our ethnographic analysis of the creation of curve figure and text box. The IPCC is a living, breathing organization: assessment work is not formulaic. To understand the science decisions in the report, we must understand how these decisions were made.
这是研究人员首次获准观察政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)的工作过程。本文通过在 IPCC 第六次评估报告第一工作组卷的编写过程中对海平面上升评估人员进行的多年系列访谈,分析了在评估复杂、不确定的科学问题时所涉及的社会和认识论挑战以及工具(包括技术和社会工具)。这项研究表明,"曲线"--未来海平面上升的代表--从三个方面体现了科学/政策互动的人文维度。首先,IPCC 作者的经验表明,重要的不仅仅是评估报告的传播结果或政治反馈,还有产生这些评估的社会和专家过程。尝试新的评估技术来提高人们对气候科学的理解,也可以提高社会对气候科学、影响和解决方案的理解。其次,全球环境评估中人的因素影响着这些组织的公信力。专家作者接受这些志愿工作的原因是多方面的,但他们对评估的社会经验的感知会影响他们的认同,并最终影响组织的合法性。第三,政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)正逐步将其图表设计程序正规化,并普遍支持作者对图表进行试验。然而,人们对章节团队的社会动态如何影响图表设计和其他评估要素却知之甚少:我们通过对曲线图和文本框创作的人种学分析来证明这一点。IPCC 是一个活生生的组织:评估工作不是公式化的。要理解报告中的科学决策,我们必须了解这些决策是如何做出的。
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引用次数: 0
Between theory and action: Assessing the transformative character of climate change adaptation in 51 cases in the Netherlands 理论与行动之间:评估荷兰 51 个气候变化适应案例的变革性特征
IF 8.6 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-11-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102948
Dore Engbersen, Robbert Biesbroek, Catrien J.A.M. Termeer
Globally, researchers and policymakers are calling for transformative climate adaptation (TCA) to fundamentally change the attributes of social, economic, and ecological systems to deal with climate risks. However, attempts to conceptualize, assess, and implement TCA are limited and often result in vague and diffuse meanings, hindering transformative action. This study synthesizes existing literature to introduce a framework consisting of six dimensions for evaluating transformative climate adaptation actions: (1) depth, (2) scope, (3) scale, (4) speed, (5) social vulnerability, and (6) ecological vulnerability. We applied this framework to 51 climate change adaptation cases in the Netherlands. Our results show that no single case scored high on all dimensions, suggesting there are trade-offs between the six dimensions. Most trade-offs exist between depth, speed, and scale; however, they sometimes extend to the interplay between social and ecological vulnerability. We identify multiple clusters of cases that display varying degrees and characteristics of transformative change. Our results strengthen the call for a multidimensional and continuous change perspective of TCA to address the gap between transformative theory and transformative actions. The framework proposed here could guide future empirical research on the drivers of TCA and help governance actors work towards building more socially and environmentally resilient futures.
在全球范围内,研究人员和决策者都在呼吁变革性气候适应(TCA),从根本上改变社会、经济和生态系统的属性,以应对气候风险。然而,对 TCA 进行概念化、评估和实施的尝试非常有限,而且往往导致含义模糊和分散,从而阻碍了转型行动。本研究综合现有文献,提出了一个由六个维度组成的框架,用于评估变革性气候适应行动:(1) 深度;(2) 范围;(3) 规模;(4) 速度;(5) 社会脆弱性;(6) 生态脆弱性。我们将这一框架应用于荷兰的 51 个气候变化适应案例。结果表明,没有一个案例在所有维度上都能获得高分,这表明六个维度之间存在权衡。大多数权衡存在于深度、速度和规模之间,但有时也会延伸到社会和生态脆弱性之间的相互作用。我们发现了多个案例集群,它们显示出不同程度和特征的变革性变化。我们的研究结果进一步呼吁从多维和持续变化的角度看待 TCA,以解决转型理论与转型行动之间的差距。本文提出的框架可以指导未来关于 TCA 驱动因素的实证研究,并帮助治理参与者努力建设更具社会和环境复原力的未来。
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引用次数: 0
Air pollution under formal institutions: The role of distrust environment 正规体制下的空气污染:不信任环境的作用
IF 8.6 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102950
Xiaojuan Hou , Ruojun Xiang , Ming Jin
Formal trust is an important formal institution that may significantly impact the environment. This study uses regional distrust environment as a reverse proxy variable for formal trust and studies the impact of formal trust on corporate sulfur dioxide emissions. This study finds that the environment of distrust significantly increases the sulfur dioxide emission levels of enterprises, which means that formal trust affects the environmental management strategies of enterprises. This study also finds that some other formal institutional factors, which include marketization, the development of intermediate organizations, the legal system environment, and GDP levels, have moderating effects on the impact of distrust environment on corporate sulfur dioxide emissions. In addition, climatic conditions including temperature, humidity, and precedence, as well as the location of the enterprise, have certain moderation effects. Mechanism analysis indicates that distrust environment affects corporate sulfur dioxide emissions through the increase in coal sulfur content in enterprise production, the decrease in exhaust gas processing capacity, the reduction in financing capacity, and the decline in social and environmental responsibilities. Finally, this study finds through further analysis that the local government appears to have noticed this negative impact, and the regions with a distrust environment tend to increase their environmental regulation intensity.
正式信任是一种重要的正式制度,可能对环境产生重大影响。本研究以地区不信任环境作为正式信任的反向替代变量,研究正式信任对企业二氧化硫排放的影响。本研究发现,不信任环境会显著增加企业的二氧化硫排放水平,这说明正式信任会影响企业的环境管理策略。本研究还发现,其他一些正式制度因素,包括市场化、中间组织发展、法律制度环境和 GDP 水平,对不信任环境对企业二氧化硫排放的影响具有调节作用。此外,气候条件包括温度、湿度、先期以及企业所在地也有一定的调节作用。机理分析表明,不信任环境通过企业生产中煤炭含硫量的增加、废气处理能力的下降、融资能力的降低、社会和环境责任的下降等途径影响企业二氧化硫排放。最后,本研究通过进一步分析发现,地方政府似乎已经注意到了这种负面影响,不信任环境地区往往会加大环境监管力度。
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引用次数: 0
A globally just and inclusive transition? Questioning policy representations of the European Green Deal 全球公正和包容的过渡?质疑欧洲绿色交易的政策表述
IF 8.6 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102946
Håkon da Silva Hyldmo , Ståle Angen Rye , Diana Vela-Almeida
Climate change mitigation policies around the world are increasingly formulated as ‘green deals’ characterized by comprehensive packages of (‘green’) economic and societal reforms intended to bring about a just and inclusive transition to a low-carbon economy. This paper takes as its starting point what we see as a fundamental tension underlying the logic of these policies: despite making ambitious claims about the ethical merits of the transition they aim to bring about, their implementation depends on the extraction of massive amounts of raw materials. Most of these materials will be sourced from the Global South, where the negative ecological and social impacts will be felt. Empirically we explore how this tension is reflected in the European Green Deal, the most comprehensive of the green deal initiatives to date. Analyzing 195 policy documents from the European Union, we find that the role played by the European Green Deal in driving negative impacts beyond its borders is effectively silenced in official discourse. This enables the propagation of a narrative that justifies the dominant paradigm of green growth by portraying the European Green Deal as undertaking a globally ‘just transition’ that ‘do no harm’ and ‘leaves no one behind’. However, it also results in discursive contradictions and inconsistencies that undermine the logic and legitimacy of the European Green Deal. These contradictions and inconsistencies, we argue, provide a possible entry point for efforts to improve the just and inclusive outcomes from the European Green Deal.
世界各地的气候变化减缓政策越来越多地被制定为 "绿色交易",其特点是全面的一揽子("绿色")经济和社会改革,旨在实现向低碳经济的公正、包容的过渡。本文的出发点是我们认为这些政策的逻辑背后存在的根本矛盾:尽管这些政策雄心勃勃地宣称其旨在实现的转型具有道德价值,但其实施却依赖于大量原材料的开采。这些材料大多来自全球南部地区,对那里的生态和社会都会产生负面影响。欧洲绿色交易是迄今为止最全面的绿色交易倡议,我们通过实证研究探讨了这一矛盾在欧洲绿色交易中的体现。通过分析欧盟的 195 份政策文件,我们发现欧洲绿色协议在推动负面影响超越其边界方面所扮演的角色在官方话语中被有效压制。这使得欧洲绿色交易被描述为在全球范围内进行 "公正过渡","不造成伤害 "且 "不遗漏任何人",从而为绿色增长的主流范式提供了依据。然而,这也造成了话语上的矛盾和不一致,破坏了欧洲绿色交易的逻辑和合法性。我们认为,这些矛盾和不一致为努力改善欧洲绿色交易的公正性和包容性成果提供了一个可能的切入点。
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引用次数: 0
“Scale and access to the Green climate Fund: Big challenges for small island developing States” "绿色气候基金的规模和获取:小岛屿发展中国家面临的巨大挑战"
IF 8.6 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102943
Pia Treichel , Michai Robertson , Emily Wilkinson , Jack Corbett
Small island developing States (SIDS) are among the first and the most severely impacted by climate change and thus have been designated as a priority for adaptation finance. But despite their urgent need and prima facie case for climate justice, SIDS have been proportionally less successful than other vulnerable country groups in accessing climate funding via the Green Climate Fund (GCF). This research extends existing studies that seek to understand the SIDS-specific challenges to accessing international public climate finance by developing a new explanation based on data collected via a multi-methods research design which draws on interviews with SIDS negotiators and officials, surveys, and roundtables, as well as content analysis of GCF and UNFCCC documents. Drawing on ideas about the social construction of scale and the emerging literature on the financialization of international development funding, we argue that SIDS’ limited access to climate funding from the GCF is the consequence of assumptions in development models of the benefits of largeness, with largeness equated with value for money. The perceived advantages of large-scale programs compound the injustice of climate change for SIDS, whose communities have contributed little to the problem yet struggle to gain access to meaningful levels of assistance. Improving access to climate finance for SIDS will require changes to the systems of access and this cannot happen unless ideas about the costs and benefits of different scales are disrupted.
小岛屿发展中国家(SIDS)是最早受到气候变化影响的国家之一,也是受影响最严重的国家之一,因此被指定为适应资金的优先对象。但是,尽管小岛屿发展中国家有迫切的需求,而且气候正义的初步证据确凿,但在通过绿色气候基金(GCF)获得气候资金方面,小岛屿发展中国家的成功比例却低于其他弱势国家群体。这项研究扩展了现有的研究,试图了解小岛屿发展中国家在获得国际公共气候资金方面所面临的具体挑战,并通过多种方法的研究设计收集数据,利用对小岛屿发展中国家谈判者和官员的访谈、调查和圆桌会议,以及对绿色气候基金和《联合国气候变化框架公约》文件的内容分析,做出新的解释。借鉴关于规模的社会建构的观点和关于国际发展资金金融化的新兴文献,我们认为,小岛屿发展中国家从全球合作框架获得气候资金的机会有限,这是发展模式中关于规模效益的假设的结果,规模等同于资金价值。人们所认为的大规模项目的优势加剧了气候变化对小岛屿发展中国家的不公,这些国家的社区对气候变化问题的影响微乎其微,但却难以获得有意义的援助。要改善小岛屿发展中国家获得气候资金的机会,就必须改变获得资金的制度,除非打破关于不同规模的成本和效益的观念,否则就不可能实现这一点。
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引用次数: 0
The energy system transition pathway towards carbon reduction using a model-coupling approach 利用模型耦合方法实现能源系统向碳减排过渡的途径
IF 8.6 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102945
Jiali Zheng , Xiaoqing Hou , Jiaming Yang , Lianyang Jiao , D’Maris Coffman , Shouyang Wang
The energy system transition is widely regarded as an important strategy to achieve carbon reduction and is aligned with China's commitment to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030. Unfortunately, most modelling approaches in the existing literature do not pay sufficient attention to inter-sectoral dynamics. By using a model-coupling approach, this paper aims to study inter-sectoral energy consumption flows from 2000 to 2021 and to explore energy system transition pathways at the national and city levels. The results show that historically heavy industries have consistently maintained a high share of energy consumption and emissions accounting for 49.9 % and 60.7 % respectively by 2021, mainly caused by direct energy-resource inputs rather than post-processing inputs. In the scenario analyses, compared to the baseline scenario, the national EES scenario can reduce energy consumption by 6.7 % and emissions by 24.6 % in 2030, while the EES_CCS scenario can further reduce emissions by 48.4 %. Furthermore, the energy consumption and CO2 emissions across cities are influenced by the industrial structure, the degree of electrification, and the amount of new energy installed.
能源系统转型被广泛认为是实现碳减排的重要战略,与中国到 2030 年达到碳排放峰值的承诺相一致。遗憾的是,现有文献中的大多数建模方法并未充分关注部门间的动态变化。本文采用模型耦合方法,旨在研究 2000 年至 2021 年的部门间能源消费流,并探索国家和城市层面的能源系统转型路径。结果表明,历史上重工业一直保持着较高的能源消耗和排放份额,到 2021 年分别占 49.9% 和 60.7%,这主要是由直接的能源资源投入而不是后处理投入造成的。在情景分析中,与基准情景相比,国家 EES 情景在 2030 年可减少 6.7% 的能耗和 24.6% 的排放,而 EES_CCS 情景可进一步减少 48.4% 的排放。此外,各城市的能源消耗和二氧化碳排放量还受到产业结构、电气化程度和新能源装机量的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Enormous inter-country inequality of embodied carbon emissions and its driving forces in South America 南美洲国家间体现碳排放的巨大不平等及其驱动力
IF 8.6 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102944
Zhenyu Wang , Huaxi Peng , Jing Meng , Heran Zheng , Jie Li , Jingwen Huo , Yuxin Chen , Quan Wen , Xiaotian Ma , Dabo Guan
South America is a crucial developing region under significant pressure to reduce emissions and achieve carbon neutrality. This study fills a vital gap by comprehensively analysing the continent’s carbon emissions from both production and consumption perspectives. Utilizing the most up-to-date global Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) models, we examine the emissions embodied in the internal and external trade of nine major South American countries, tracing the emission flows from their origins to final consumers and analyzing the socio-economic drivers behind these patterns. Our analysis reveals that regions bearing heavier burdens of energy-intensive production often face exacerbated economic disparities. Trade-related emissions are embodied in heavy industry and transportation, and the share of emissions attributable to developing countries is continuously climbing. Brazil is the sole net-exporter of emissions, while Colombia has become a significant net importer. Energy intensity offsets the increase in carbon emissions caused by per capita consumption, especially in Brazil. Meanwhile, Colombia experiences an increase in emissions due to its energy structure, whereas a general trend towards decreasing emissions is noted elsewhere. The impact of the industrial chain is mainly domestic and extends forward along the supply chain. Interestingly, the consumption structure reduces emissions in Argentina and Bolivia, but increases them in other countries. Key emission mitigation initiatives include Brazil enhancing its leadership in bioenergy, Chile intensifying the development of green industrial chains for high-emission sectors, and Uruguay advancing its wind energy projects to increase clean energy exports, etc. These measures could facilitate targeted and effective decarbonization while promoting equitable and sustainable economic development across South America.
南美洲是一个重要的发展中地区,面临着减排和实现碳中和的巨大压力。本研究从生产和消费两个角度全面分析了南美大陆的碳排放量,填补了这一重要空白。利用最新的全球多地区投入产出(MRIO)模型,我们研究了南美洲九个主要国家在内部和外部贸易中所体现的排放量,追踪了从排放源到最终消费者的排放流,并分析了这些模式背后的社会经济驱动因素。我们的分析表明,能源密集型生产负担较重的地区往往面临着经济差距加剧的问题。与贸易有关的排放体现在重工业和运输业中,发展中国家的排放比例不断攀升。巴西是唯一的排放净出口国,而哥伦比亚已成为重要的净进口国。能源强度抵消了人均消费造成的碳排放量的增加,尤其是在巴西。与此同时,哥伦比亚的能源结构导致排放量增加,而其他地区的排放量总体呈下降趋势。产业链的影响主要在国内,并沿着供应链向前延伸。有趣的是,消费结构减少了阿根廷和玻利维亚的排放量,但却增加了其他国家的排放量。主要的减排举措包括巴西加强其在生物能源领域的领导地位,智利加强高排放行业绿色产业链的发展,乌拉圭推进风能项目以增加清洁能源出口等。这些措施可以促进有针对性和有效的去碳化,同时促进整个南美洲公平和可持续的经济发展。
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引用次数: 0
Global wildfire activity re-visited 重新审视全球野火活动
IF 8.6 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102894
Opha Pauline Dube
Investments in wildfire management are increasing globally; however, frequent and intense fires continue to threaten humans and natural systems. Moreover, comprehensive assessments of fire damage and cost are lacking. Current fire risk is considered moderate compared to that under global warming of 1.5 °C. Several works link rising fire risk to the fire exclusion paradigm, land use, and climate change. The multifaceted nature of the global wildfire activity requires holistic, integrative perspectives to stimulate novel solutions. This review elucidated the transformative changes in the human-fire relationship that led to the globalization of the fire exclusion policies and emergence of a complex global fire activity. The use of fire in the impetus toward industrialization and its management thereafter was at the expense of millions dispossessed of their land, curtailing development of their knowledge domains, introducing inequality, and poverty, which enhanced the reliance on fire as a tool to meet the livelihood needs within a fire exclusion policy environment. Industrialization marked the beginning of climate change-fire positive feedback loops that enhanced vulnerability worldwide. Current evidence shows that not all frequently burnt areas are major sources of emissions. The potential to use fire exclusion for emission reduction could downplay further the role of fire in carbon storage, ecological processes and land use fire needs, increasing reliance on “covert fire use practices,” and exacerbating incidents of large fires that surpass fire suppression capabilities given the contribution of climate change on fire risk. The globally complex fire activity points to the need for adaptive, participatory, multi-level, polycentric governance approaches.
全球在野火管理方面的投资正在不断增加;然而,频繁而猛烈的火灾仍在威胁着人类和自然系统。此外,目前还缺乏对火灾损失和成本的全面评估。与全球变暖 1.5 ℃ 的情况相比,目前的火灾风险被认为是中等的。一些著作将不断上升的火灾风险与火灾排斥模式、土地利用和气候变化联系起来。全球野火活动的多面性要求从整体、综合的角度来激发新的解决方案。本综述阐明了人类与火灾关系的转变,这种转变导致了禁火政策的全球化和复杂的全球火灾活动的出现。在推动工业化的过程中对火的使用以及此后对火的管理是以牺牲数百万被剥夺土地的人的利益为代价的,这限制了他们知识领域的发展,带来了不平等和贫困,从而加强了对火的依赖,使其成为在禁火政策环境下满足生计需求的一种工具。工业化标志着气候变化--火灾正反馈循环的开始,这加剧了全球的脆弱性。目前的证据表明,并非所有经常被烧毁的地区都是主要的排放源。考虑到气候变化对火灾风险的影响,将火灾排除用于减排可能会进一步淡化火灾在碳储存、生态过程和土地使用火灾需求中的作用,增加对 "隐蔽性用火方式 "的依赖,并加剧超过灭火能力的大型火灾事件。全球复杂的火灾活动表明,需要采取适应性、参与性、多层次、多中心的治理方法。
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引用次数: 0
Agricultural resilience: Impact of extreme weather events on the adoption of rural insurance in Brazil 农业复原力:极端天气事件对巴西采用农村保险的影响
IF 8.6 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102938
Elizângela Aparecida dos Santos , Elena Beatriz Piedra-Bonilla , Gabriela Madureira Barroso , Jordão Vieira Silva , Seyede Parvin Hejazirad , José Barbosa dos Santos
Brazil’s agricultural, livestock, and forestry production is essential, feeding more than 10% of the global population. However, climate change and extremes affect quality and production, challenging the Sustainable Development Goals of eradicating hunger and poverty. Extreme weather events generate economic and social costs, driving the use of adaptation strategies, with rural insurance being one of the main instruments to manage these risks. This study analyzes the impact of extreme weather events on rural insurance contracting in Brazil, using daily precipitation and temperature data to calculate extreme weather indices and perform panel regressions. The analysis of Minimum Comparable Areas (MCAs) between 2006 and 2016 showed that events such as “Frost” and “Hot Days” significantly increased insurance contracting, especially in the South and Central-West regions. The results highlight the importance of extreme variables and the need to consider regional differences and insurance alternatives. Despite the importance of insurance, increasing financial unviability suggests the need for additional strategies, such as crop diversification, community solidarity, and conservation of agricultural practices.
巴西的农业、畜牧业和林业生产至关重要,养活了全球 10%以上的人口。然而,气候变化和极端天气影响了质量和产量,给消除饥饿和贫困的可持续发展目标带来了挑战。极端天气事件造成了经济和社会成本,推动了适应战略的使用,而农村保险则是管理这些风险的主要手段之一。本研究利用每日降水和气温数据计算极端天气指数并进行面板回归,分析了极端天气事件对巴西农村保险签约的影响。对 2006 年至 2016 年间最小可比区(MCA)的分析表明,"霜冻 "和 "高温日 "等事件显著增加了保险签约,尤其是在南部和中西部地区。结果凸显了极端变量的重要性,以及考虑地区差异和保险替代方案的必要性。尽管保险很重要,但越来越多的财务不可行性表明,需要采取额外的战略,如作物多样化、社区团结和农业实践保护。
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Global Environmental Change
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