Global Environmental Change最新文献_第3页

Mapping resilience pathway of smallholder farming community to cyclone-led climate disasters in coastal West Bengal, India 绘制印度西孟加拉邦沿海地区小农社区应对气旋导致的气候灾害的复原力路径

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103108

Amitava Panja , Sanchita Garai , Sanjit Maiti , Rupak Goswami , Siddhesh Zade , Apoorva Veldandi , Dipjyoti Gangopadhyay , Gopal Sankhala

Cyclone-driven climate disasters and variability, compounded by small landholdings, low agricultural productivity, and declining natural resource quality in coastal regions, have exacerbated food, livelihood, and economic insecurity for rural agrarian communities. This study employs a participatory, quasi-quantitative framework using Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) to construct mental models of smallholder farming communities in coastal India. Data were gathered from 360 respondents, and 24 maps were created at the village level under 8 blocks in 3 coastal districts of West Bengal through focus group discussions. These maps were quantitatively aggregated at the district level and subsequently combined to develop Social Cognitive Maps for the entire coastal West Bengal region. The study identifies perceived impacts of cyclone-driven climate disasters and assesses the effectiveness of adaptation strategies for building resilience pathway in coastal regions. FCM-based scenario analysis suggests that integrating adaptation strategies such as conservation and management of natural resources, improved crop management practices and building capacity and risk bearing ability functions synergistically, fostering a robust, perceived resilience pathway for smallholder farming communities. Natural resource management, integrated pest and nutrient management, and capacity-building and extension activities, were identified as major contributors to the anticipated changes within the system driven by the most perceived resilience pathway. This study offers critical insights for decentralized climate adaptation planning and highlights actionable areas for policy intervention in cyclone-affected coastal regions. The FCM framework presented here provides a transferable tool for integrating local knowledge into adaptive governance and resilience planning.

气旋驱动的气候灾害和变化，加上沿海地区土地拥有量少、农业生产率低和自然资源质量下降，加剧了农村农业社区的粮食、生计和经济不安全状况。本研究采用参与式准定量框架，利用模糊认知映射（FCM）构建印度沿海小农社区的心理模型。通过焦点小组讨论，从360名受访者那里收集了数据，并在西孟加拉邦3个沿海地区的8个街区的村庄一级绘制了24张地图。这些地图在地区层面上进行了定量汇总，随后结合起来开发了整个西孟加拉邦沿海地区的社会认知地图。该研究确定了气旋驱动的气候灾害的感知影响，并评估了沿海地区建立恢复力路径的适应战略的有效性。基于fcm的情景分析表明，将自然资源保护和管理、改进作物管理实践以及建设能力和风险承受能力等适应战略整合在一起，协同发挥作用，为小农社区培育一条强大的、可感知的抗灾途径。自然资源管理、病虫害和养分综合管理以及能力建设和推广活动被确定为系统内预期变化的主要贡献者，这些变化是由最明显的复原力途径驱动的。这项研究为分散的气候适应规划提供了重要见解，并突出了受飓风影响的沿海地区政策干预的可操作领域。本文提出的FCM框架提供了一种可转移的工具，可将地方知识整合到适应性治理和弹性规划中。

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引用次数: 0

Surging scientific capabilities in cities worldwide after significant earthquakes 大地震后，世界各地城市的科学能力激增

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103109

Yuting Liang , Carlos Navarrete , Jinfeng Wang

Natural disasters trigger complex social chain interactions. While scholars have largely assessed their impacts on society, much less is known about how such catastrophes contribute to the development of scientific capabilities. Here, we analyze 314,753 earthquake-related scholarly documents together with metadata on 1099 significant seismic events worldwide between 1980 and 2024 to examine how earthquakes influence the entry of new scientific capabilities into the portfolios of cities and countries. We find that major earthquakes can reconfigure research trajectories in cities near epicenters and stimulate activity across a broader range of scientific domains, irrespective of prior scientific capabilities. This diversification spans both related fields (e.g., geosciences and civil engineering) and unrelated fields (e.g., psychology and economics), particularly in the aftermath of the largest and most destructive events. The odds of entering new fields at the city level are associated with factors such as the number of people affected, historical exposure to earthquakes, and pre-existing scientific capabilities. These findings emphasize the necessity of leveraging geographic and institutional resilience to foster scientific diversification in disaster-prone regions, offering policymakers valuable insights into smart specialization strategies for risk mitigation and long-term knowledge development.

自然灾害引发复杂的社会链互动。虽然学者们已经在很大程度上评估了它们对社会的影响，但对于这些灾难如何促进科学能力的发展，我们知之甚少。在这里，我们分析了314,753份与地震相关的学术文献，以及1980年至2024年间全球1099次重大地震事件的元数据，以研究地震如何影响新的科学能力进入城市和国家的投资组合。这种多样化跨越了相关领域（例如，地球科学和土木工程）和不相关领域（例如，心理学和经济学），特别是在最大和最具破坏性的事件之后。在城市一级进入新领域的可能性与受影响的人口数量、历史上遭受地震的风险以及现有的科学能力等因素有关。这些发现强调了利用地理和制度弹性来促进灾害易发地区科学多样化的必要性，为决策者提供了关于减轻风险和长期知识发展的智能专业化战略的宝贵见解。

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引用次数: 0

Beyond projects: Relational durability and the measurement of climate adaptation success in practice 项目之外：关系持久性和实践中气候适应成功的衡量

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103110

Stacy-ann Robinson , Mara Dolan , Emma Bouton , J. Timmons Roberts , D’Arcy Carlson

As global adaptation policy moves to operationalize the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), questions remain about what sustains success once external funding and oversight have ended. This article advances a relational framework for understanding how adaptation endures, arguing that success is less about technical design and short-term outputs, and more about the continuity of relationships among people, institutions, and place. Drawing on qualitative fieldwork across three rural Jamaican communities that implemented two United Nations Development Programme-supported agricultural adaptation projects, this study examines how adaptation practices have persisted more than five years after project closure. Through interviews, focus groups, and field observation, it identifies seven interlinked factors – volunteerism, local-institutional partnerships, embedded leadership, national alignment, locally tailored livelihoods, perceptions of fairness and inclusion, and long-term community enthusiasm – that have allowed adaptation to remain active and meaningful over time. The findings demonstrate that durability emerges from relational continuity, i.e. the social and institutional infrastructures that embed adaptation in everyday life. Introducing relational durability as both an analytical and policy lens, the article reframes adaptation success as a collective, co-produced process grounded in recognition, reciprocity, and care, and calls for these relational capacities to be treated as core indicators of progress under the GGA.

随着全球适应政策转向实施全球适应目标（GGA），在外部资金和监督结束后，如何维持成功的问题仍然存在。本文提出了一个理解适应如何持续的关系框架，认为成功与技术设计和短期产出关系不大，而更多地与人、机构和地点之间关系的连续性有关。本研究通过对实施了两个联合国开发计划署支持的农业适应项目的三个牙买加农村社区进行定性实地调查，考察了适应实践如何在项目结束后持续了五年多。通过访谈、焦点小组和实地观察，它确定了七个相互关联的因素——志愿服务、地方机构伙伴关系、嵌入式领导、国家协调、当地量身定制的生计、对公平和包容的看法以及长期的社区热情——这些因素使适应能够长期保持活跃和有意义。研究结果表明，持久性来自于关系连续性，即将适应融入日常生活的社会和制度基础设施。本文将关系持久性作为分析和政策视角引入，将适应成功重新定义为基于认可、互惠和关怀的集体、共同产生的过程，并呼吁将这些关系能力视为GGA下进展的核心指标。

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引用次数: 0

Status of global accumulation of marine debris 全球海洋垃圾堆积状况

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103058

Eranga K. Galappaththi , Jennifer D. Russell , Mitch Dolby , Thomas Newsome , Sithuni M. Jayasekara

The issue of marine debris pollution is a growing crisis, with detrimental effects on ecosystems, marine organisms, and human health. More than 800 coastal and marine species are affected, resulting in billions of dollars of economic losses each year. To better understand the dimensions of this challenge, it is important to establish a solid scientific knowledge base. This study aims to synthesize the global research and evidence of marine debris accumulation in coastal areas. Through a systematic literature review, we found that Europe and Asia are the primary regions where marine debris accumulation is studied, with the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans accounting for most of research. The majority of publications are by first authors from European and Asian institutions, with the US also contributing significantly. Most studies focus on the volume of marine debris, with general waste being the most studied type. Additionally, physical and environmental factors play a larger role than human-based factors in marine debris accumulation. Overall, there is a trend of increasing and relocating marine debris accumulation across all determining factors. We also identified important areas for future research to deepen our understanding of the factors influencing debris accumulation. In particular, there is a notable gap in the practical application of tools and methods for tracking and identifying marine debris, such as satellite remote sensing, specialized databases, and computational modeling approaches. The study findings offer vital insights for decision-making regarding marine debris accumulation, benefiting policymakers, researchers, and other stakeholders striving towards a more sustainable globe.

海洋垃圾污染问题是一个日益严重的危机，对生态系统、海洋生物和人类健康产生有害影响。800多种沿海和海洋物种受到影响，每年造成数十亿美元的经济损失。为了更好地了解这一挑战的规模，重要的是建立一个坚实的科学知识库。本研究旨在综合全球沿海地区海洋垃圾堆积的研究和证据。通过系统的文献回顾，我们发现欧洲和亚洲是海洋垃圾堆积研究的主要区域，其中大西洋和太平洋占研究的大部分。大多数出版物的第一作者来自欧洲和亚洲的机构，美国也贡献很大。大多数研究集中在海洋垃圾的体积上，一般垃圾是研究最多的类型。此外，物理和环境因素在海洋垃圾堆积中的作用大于人为因素。总体而言，在所有决定因素中，海洋垃圾堆积都有增加和迁移的趋势。我们还确定了未来研究的重要领域，以加深我们对影响碎屑堆积因素的理解。特别是，在跟踪和识别海洋碎片的工具和方法，如卫星遥感、专门数据库和计算建模方法的实际应用方面存在显著差距。研究结果为有关海洋垃圾堆积的决策提供了重要见解，使政策制定者、研究人员和其他利益相关者受益，努力实现更可持续的地球。

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引用次数: 0

Adaptive flood risk management: A decision support system integrating deep learning, digital twins, and economic risk assessment 自适应洪水风险管理：集成深度学习、数字孪生和经济风险评估的决策支持系统

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103069

Miia Chabot , Jean-Louis Bertrand

Floods are among the most destructive climate-related disasters, with their frequency and severity increasing due to climate change and urban expansion. In response to rising claims and insufficient adaptation measures, insurers are progressively withdrawing from high-risk areas, thereby shifting the responsibility for risk management to businesses and municipalities, who must either implement their own solutions or resort to self-insurance. Effective flood risk management requires accurate forecasting, robust financial impact assessments, and decision support systems (DSS) to inform adaptation strategies. Within the framework of the European Union (EU) Floods Directive, this study develops an integrated, AI-powered DSS that combines deep learning-based flood forecasting (ConvLSTM models), economic vulnerability modelling (Joint Research Centre methodology), digital twin simulations, and predictive analytics to support data-driven adaptation planning. The framework was initially applied to assess pluvial, fluvial, and coastal flood risks in the coastal city of Nice, France, and subsequently extended to over 100 public and private sites across three urban municipalities. The findings demonstrate that this methodology improves the accuracy of risk assessments and provides a structured basis for capital allocation, insurability evaluation, and the optimization of adaptation investments. The multi-site deployment revealed significant governance, legal, and behavioural constraints, with public authorities and family-owned businesses responding differently despite comparable risk information. This research shows that integrating AI and digital twin technologies advances the EU Floods Directive’s objectives by enhancing risk mapping, preparedness, and transparency, while supporting public–private partnerships and extending protection to vulnerable populations at risk of losing insurance coverage.

洪水是最具破坏性的气候相关灾害之一，由于气候变化和城市扩张，洪水发生的频率和严重程度都在增加。为了应对索赔的增加和适应措施的不足，保险公司正在逐步退出高风险地区，从而将风险管理的责任转移给企业和市政当局，它们必须实施自己的解决方案或诉诸自我保险。有效的洪水风险管理需要准确的预测、稳健的财务影响评估和决策支持系统（DSS）来为适应战略提供信息。在欧盟（EU）洪水指令的框架内，本研究开发了一个集成的人工智能驱动的DSS，该DSS结合了基于深度学习的洪水预报（ConvLSTM模型）、经济脆弱性建模（联合研究中心方法）、数字孪生模拟和预测分析，以支持数据驱动的适应规划。该框架最初用于评估法国尼斯沿海城市的雨洪、河流和沿海洪水风险，随后扩展到三个城市的100多个公共和私人场所。研究结果表明，该方法提高了风险评估的准确性，为资本配置、可保性评估和适应性投资优化提供了结构化的基础。多地点部署显示了重大的治理、法律和行为约束，尽管风险信息相似，但公共当局和家族企业的反应却不同。这项研究表明，人工智能和数字孪生技术的整合通过加强风险测绘、准备和透明度，同时支持公私伙伴关系，并将保护范围扩大到有可能失去保险覆盖的弱势群体，从而推进了欧盟《洪水指令》的目标。

{"title":"Adaptive flood risk management: A decision support system integrating deep learning, digital twins, and economic risk assessment","authors":"Miia Chabot , Jean-Louis Bertrand","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103069","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103069","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Floods are among the most destructive climate-related disasters, with their frequency and severity increasing due to climate change and urban expansion. In response to rising claims and insufficient adaptation measures, insurers are progressively withdrawing from high-risk areas, thereby shifting the responsibility for risk management to businesses and municipalities, who must either implement their own solutions or resort to self-insurance. Effective flood risk management requires accurate forecasting, robust financial impact assessments, and decision support systems (DSS) to inform adaptation strategies. Within the framework of the European Union (EU) Floods Directive, this study develops an integrated, AI-powered DSS that combines deep learning-based flood forecasting (ConvLSTM models), economic vulnerability modelling (Joint Research Centre methodology), digital twin simulations, and predictive analytics to support data-driven adaptation planning. The framework was initially applied to assess pluvial, fluvial, and coastal flood risks in the coastal city of Nice, France, and subsequently extended to over 100 public and private sites across three urban municipalities. The findings demonstrate that this methodology improves the accuracy of risk assessments and provides a structured basis for capital allocation, insurability evaluation, and the optimization of adaptation investments. The multi-site deployment revealed significant governance, legal, and behavioural constraints, with public authorities and family-owned businesses responding differently despite comparable risk information. This research shows that integrating AI and digital twin technologies advances the EU Floods Directive’s objectives by enhancing risk mapping, preparedness, and transparency, while supporting public–private partnerships and extending protection to vulnerable populations at risk of losing insurance coverage.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103069"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145217513","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Implications of demographic policies on China’s food-related environmental footprints amid population ageing 人口老龄化背景下人口政策对中国食品相关环境足迹的影响

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103082

Qingling Wang , Han Zhang , Kuishuang Feng , Pan He , Richard Wood , Peipei Tian , Yiming Wang , Saige Wang , Yu Liu , Huifang Liu , Heran Zheng

China has implemented a range of demographic policies to address population ageing, which exert significant potential impacts on aggregate food demand and associated environmental effects. However, prior studies have not integrated these policies and age-specific food consumption patterns into environmental impact projections. Here, we quantify China’s four food-related environmental footprints under representative demographic policy scenarios by employing a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) and a multi-regional input–output (MRIO) model. This study is the first attempt to link China’s pro-natalist policies with multi-dimensional food-related environmental footprints through an age-cohort demand model. We find older adults (> 60 years) will become the largest contributor to the nation’s total food-related footprints (accounting for approximately 37% by 2050), despite having below-average per capita footprints. From 2020 to 2050, total land use footprint is projected to increase, whereas GHG emissions, water consumption, and eutrophication footprints would decline. Reduction in GHG emissions is primarily driven by declining environmental intensities, while changes in other three footprints are mainly due to dynamic population sizes. Relative to the no-policy baseline scenario, China’s demographic policies could lead to an approximate 3–18% increase in environmental footprints by 2050, imposing a notable burden on sustainability targets. Land use footprint would emerge as the most policy-sensitive indicator, with its peak year delayed by at least a decade under the most aggressive fertility-boosting policy. By analyzing dietary change scenarios, we find only ambitious transitions (nationwide adoption of plant-rich diets) can fully offset the policy-induced footprint increases, except for water consumption, in which case plant-rich diets would conversely result in higher footprints. Our findings underscore dietary change can help mitigate the additional environmental pressures induced by China’s demographic policies, while also highlighting critical trade-offs across different environmental indicators.

中国已经实施了一系列人口政策来解决人口老龄化问题，这对总粮食需求和相关的环境影响具有重大的潜在影响。然而，先前的研究并没有将这些政策和特定年龄的食物消费模式纳入环境影响预测。本文采用二次几乎理想需求系统（QUAIDS）和多区域投入产出（MRIO）模型，对具有代表性的人口政策情景下中国的四种粮食相关环境足迹进行量化。本研究首次尝试通过年龄群需求模型将中国的亲生育政策与食品相关的多维环境足迹联系起来。我们发现，老年人（60岁 岁）将成为全国食品相关足迹总量的最大贡献者（到2050年约占37%），尽管他们的人均足迹低于平均水平。从2020年到2050年，预计土地利用足迹总量将增加，而温室气体排放、水消耗和富营养化足迹将下降。温室气体排放的减少主要是由环境强度的下降推动的，而其他三种足迹的变化主要是由于动态的人口规模。相对于无政策基准情景，到2050年，中国的人口政策可能导致环境足迹增加约3-18%，对可持续发展目标造成显著负担。土地利用足迹将成为最具政策敏感性的指标，在最积极的提高生育率政策下，其峰值年份将至少推迟10年。通过分析饮食变化情景，我们发现只有雄心勃勃的转变（在全国范围内采用富含植物的饮食）才能完全抵消政策引起的足迹增加，但水消耗除外，在这种情况下，富含植物的饮食会导致更高的足迹。我们的研究结果强调，饮食变化有助于缓解中国人口政策带来的额外环境压力，同时也强调了不同环境指标之间的关键权衡。

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引用次数: 0

The potential negative impact of the UNFCCC: An analysis of sectoral, geographical, and temporal problem shifts from climate policies and measures in 25 industrialized countries 《联合国气候变化框架公约》的潜在负面影响：25个工业化国家气候政策和措施的部门、地理和时间问题转变分析

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103075

Ashok Vardhan Adipudi, Rakhyun E. Kim, Frank Biermann

Climate mitigation policies and measures, while well-intentioned, can generate unintended consequences—a phenomenon known as ‘problem-shifting’, where efforts to curb climate change inadvertently create new environmental or socio-economic challenges. Although issues such as carbon leakage have been acknowledged under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, no systematic analysis has examined the magnitude and direction of these shifts. This study analyzes 182 national communications submitted by 25 Global North countries between 1994 and 2023, identifying 718 instances of problem-shifting risk across 712 climate policies and measures. These risks span sectors, institutions, and regions, manifesting as cascading sectoral shifts, transboundary displacements from the Global North to the Global South, and temporal shifts that intensify climate burdens for future generations. Communities in developing regions—especially those dependent on vulnerable sectors—face disproportionate impacts, compounding existing vulnerabilities. The findings underscore the urgent need for holistic, Earth-system-based approaches to climate action that account for system-wide human-environment interactions, minimize unintended consequences, and prevent further problem-shifting. A transition towards such integrative strategies is essential to achieving equitable and sustainable outcomes in global climate governance.

气候减缓政策和措施虽然出发点是好的，但可能产生意想不到的后果——一种被称为“问题转移”的现象，即遏制气候变化的努力无意中造成了新的环境或社会经济挑战。尽管《联合国气候变化框架公约》已经承认了碳泄漏等问题，但还没有系统的分析来检验这些变化的幅度和方向。本研究分析了25个北半球国家在1994年至2023年间提交的182份国家信息通报，确定了712项气候政策和措施中718个问题转移风险实例。这些风险跨越部门、机构和地区，表现为级联的部门转移、从全球北方向全球南方的跨界迁移，以及加剧子孙后代气候负担的时间转移。发展中地区的社区，特别是那些依赖脆弱部门的社区，面临着不成比例的影响，加剧了现有的脆弱性。研究结果强调，迫切需要采取全面的、基于地球系统的气候行动方法，以考虑全系统的人与环境相互作用，最大限度地减少意外后果，并防止进一步的问题转移。向这种综合战略过渡对于在全球气候治理中取得公平和可持续的成果至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Technological breakthroughs can reverse the unintended negative impacts of carbon tariffs on China’s steel sector and global economy 技术突破可以扭转碳关税对中国钢铁行业和全球经济的意外负面影响

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103083

Zhixiong Weng , Chaoyi Guo , Xiaorui Liu , Pauline Miquel , Xinyuan Liu , Hancheng Dai

The implementation of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is expected to have far-reaching implications for the global economy. This study develops a global dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to primarily simulate the impacts of imposing carbon tariffs exclusively on China’s steel sector. The results show that a high carbon tariff scenario would exert considerable negative pressure on China’s economy, leading to an additional GDP loss of 72.02 billion USD by 2050, a reduction of 127.06 thousand jobs in the steel sector by 2060, and a loss of 32.63 billion USD in sectoral value added, alongside a notable decline in steel exports. While CBAM reduces the international competitiveness of China’s energy-intensive exports, it also induces export substitution effects in other countries. We also find that green technological advancement in China’s steel sector can substantially offset the adverse effects of carbon tariffs. Under a high-carbon-tariff and high-technology scenario, China could achieve an additional GDP gain of 281.56 billion USD by 2060, a 2.91% increase in steel sector employment (833.60 thousand jobs), and a 232.53 billion USD rise in value added. This study also warns of the potential rebound effect in carbon emissions, as technological progress may lead to electricity demand expansion in the steel sector, thereby offsetting some of the climate benefits. These findings suggest that countries must actively prepare for CBAM by reducing the carbon intensity of their exports and investing in long-term low-carbon technological transitions to maintain competitiveness in a carbon-constrained global economy.

欧盟碳边界调整机制（CBAM）的实施预计将对全球经济产生深远影响。本研究建立了一个全球动态可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型，主要模拟对中国钢铁行业征收碳关税的影响。研究结果表明，高碳关税情景将对中国经济造成相当大的负面压力，到2050年，中国GDP将额外损失720.2亿美元，到2060年，钢铁行业就业岗位将减少127.06万个，行业增加值将损失326.3亿美元，钢铁出口将显著下降。CBAM在降低中国能源密集型出口产品国际竞争力的同时，也在其他国家引发了出口替代效应。我们还发现，中国钢铁行业的绿色技术进步可以大大抵消碳关税的不利影响。在高碳关税和高技术情景下，到2060年，中国国内生产总值可增加2815.6亿美元，钢铁行业就业岗位增加2.91%（8336万个），增加值增加2325.3亿美元。本研究还对碳排放的潜在反弹效应提出了警告，因为技术进步可能导致钢铁行业的电力需求扩大，从而抵消了一些气候效益。这些发现表明，各国必须通过降低出口的碳强度和投资于长期低碳技术转型，积极为CBAM做好准备，以保持在碳限制的全球经济中的竞争力。

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引用次数: 0

De-energization as maladaptation: Uneven residential exposure to wildfire Public Safety Power Shutoffs and compound heat 作为不适应的断电：不均匀的住宅暴露于野火公共安全断电和复合热

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103067

Kate Burrows , Kathryn McConnell , Nora Louise Schwaller , Chantel F. Pheiffer

In response to growing levels of wildfire destruction, electric utility companies are adopting powerline de-energization as an adaptation strategy intended to prevent wildfire ignitions. While reducing wildfire risk, planned de-energizations also expose residents to electricity loss, potentially causing harmful consequences. We investigated the extent to which planned de-energization can be considered a form of maladaptation, in which an adaptive response to a climate-related hazard results in unintended, concurrent harms. To do so, we examined the co-occurrence of Public Safety Power Shutoffs (PSPSs) with extreme heat (temperature ≥ 32 °C) in California between October 2021 and September 2024. Our analysis revealed compound heat-PSPS outages throughout this period, including extreme temperatures exceeding 40 °C, during power shutoffs. Compound heat-PSPS events were geographically concentrated in census block groups with higher proportions of older adults and mobile home residents, both populations which may be at increased risk of heat-related morbidity and mortality. While they affected a relatively small proportion of customers de-energized by PSPSs, compound heat-PSPS outages raise concerns over extreme heat exposure when access to electricity-based cooling strategies is curtailed. Evaluating the maladaptive effects of institutional responses to climate change hazards is critical for comprehensively weighing both the benefits and harms of emerging adaptation strategies.

为了应对日益严重的野火破坏，电力公司正在采用输电线断电作为一种适应策略，旨在防止野火点燃。在减少野火风险的同时，计划中的断电也使居民面临电力损失，可能造成有害后果。我们调查了计划性断电在多大程度上可以被认为是一种适应不良的形式，在这种情况下，对气候相关危害的适应性反应会导致意想不到的、同时发生的危害。为此，我们研究了2021年10月至2024年9月期间加州极端高温（温度≥32°C）下公共安全停电（psp）的共同发生情况。我们的分析显示，在停电期间，复合热- psps中断，包括超过40°C的极端温度。复合热- psps事件在地理上集中在老年人和活动房屋居民比例较高的人口普查街区群体中，这两个人群可能面临与热相关的发病率和死亡率增加的风险。虽然它们影响了相对较小比例的被psps断电的客户，但复合热- psps停电引起了人们对极端高温暴露的担忧，因为电力冷却策略的使用受到限制。评估机构应对气候变化危害的不良影响对于全面权衡新出现的适应战略的利弊至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Trade of crop products contribute to the alleviation of global nitrate leaching risks 农作物产品的贸易有助于减轻全球硝酸盐淋失风险

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103074

Xuchong Chen , Ling Liu , Yu Lu , Xuan Wang , Zhaohai Bai , Lin Ma

International crop trade plays a pivotal yet understudied role in mitigating global nitrate leaching, a major driver of water pollution. By analyzing 59 years of data (1961–2019) across 190 countries and 164 crops, we quantify how changes in global crop sourcing are associated with the average nitrate leaching intensity of production—defined at the national scale as kg NO₃⁻ per kcal or per kg protein. Our findings reveal that global trade reduced nitrate leaching by 53.6 Tg (8.4 %) and 130 Tg (20 %) for calorie- and protein-equivalent production in the past 59 years, respectively, primarily by relocating agricultural output to regions with lower leaching intensities. Exporting nations, such as the USA, Brazil, and Argentina, exhibited leaching rates 20–40 % below global averages, potentially due to better nitrogen management practices. Conversely, import-dependent countries like China and Japan sourced crops from higher-intensity systems, highlighting disparities in environmental governance. Post-2000, trade optimality improved as low-leaching exporters expanded, yet geopolitical fragmentation and climate risks threaten these gains. We propose integrating leaching intensity metrics into trade agreements and bolstering sustainable practices to align food security with water quality goals. This study underscores trade’s dual role as a catalyst for environmental mitigation and a source of systemic risk, offering actionable pathways to safeguard freshwater ecosystems within planetary boundaries.

国际作物贸易在减轻全球硝酸盐淋滤（水污染的主要驱动因素）方面发挥着关键但尚未得到充分研究的作用。通过分析190个国家和164种作物59年（1961-2019年）的数据，我们量化了全球作物来源的变化与生产的平均硝酸盐淋失强度（在国家尺度上定义为每千卡或每公斤蛋白质每公斤NO3 -）之间的关系。我们的研究结果表明，在过去的59年中，全球贸易主要通过将农业产出转移到浸出强度较低的地区，分别减少了53.6 Tg（8.4%）和130 Tg（20%）的热量和蛋白质当量生产的硝酸盐浸出。出口国家，如美国、巴西和阿根廷，其淋滤率比全球平均水平低20 - 40%，这可能是由于更好的氮管理措施。相反，中国和日本等依赖进口的国家从强度更高的系统采购作物，凸显了环境治理方面的差异。2000年后，随着低浸出率出口国的扩大，贸易最优性得到改善，但地缘政治碎片化和气候风险威胁着这些成果。我们建议将浸出强度指标纳入贸易协定，并加强可持续实践，使粮食安全与水质目标保持一致。这项研究强调了贸易作为环境缓解催化剂和系统性风险来源的双重作用，为在地球边界内保护淡水生态系统提供了可行的途径。

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