Global Environmental Change最新文献_第3页

Implications of demographic policies on China’s food-related environmental footprints amid population ageing 人口老龄化背景下人口政策对中国食品相关环境足迹的影响

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103082

Qingling Wang , Han Zhang , Kuishuang Feng , Pan He , Richard Wood , Peipei Tian , Yiming Wang , Saige Wang , Yu Liu , Huifang Liu , Heran Zheng

China has implemented a range of demographic policies to address population ageing, which exert significant potential impacts on aggregate food demand and associated environmental effects. However, prior studies have not integrated these policies and age-specific food consumption patterns into environmental impact projections. Here, we quantify China’s four food-related environmental footprints under representative demographic policy scenarios by employing a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) and a multi-regional input–output (MRIO) model. This study is the first attempt to link China’s pro-natalist policies with multi-dimensional food-related environmental footprints through an age-cohort demand model. We find older adults (> 60 years) will become the largest contributor to the nation’s total food-related footprints (accounting for approximately 37% by 2050), despite having below-average per capita footprints. From 2020 to 2050, total land use footprint is projected to increase, whereas GHG emissions, water consumption, and eutrophication footprints would decline. Reduction in GHG emissions is primarily driven by declining environmental intensities, while changes in other three footprints are mainly due to dynamic population sizes. Relative to the no-policy baseline scenario, China’s demographic policies could lead to an approximate 3–18% increase in environmental footprints by 2050, imposing a notable burden on sustainability targets. Land use footprint would emerge as the most policy-sensitive indicator, with its peak year delayed by at least a decade under the most aggressive fertility-boosting policy. By analyzing dietary change scenarios, we find only ambitious transitions (nationwide adoption of plant-rich diets) can fully offset the policy-induced footprint increases, except for water consumption, in which case plant-rich diets would conversely result in higher footprints. Our findings underscore dietary change can help mitigate the additional environmental pressures induced by China’s demographic policies, while also highlighting critical trade-offs across different environmental indicators.

中国已经实施了一系列人口政策来解决人口老龄化问题，这对总粮食需求和相关的环境影响具有重大的潜在影响。然而，先前的研究并没有将这些政策和特定年龄的食物消费模式纳入环境影响预测。本文采用二次几乎理想需求系统（QUAIDS）和多区域投入产出（MRIO）模型，对具有代表性的人口政策情景下中国的四种粮食相关环境足迹进行量化。本研究首次尝试通过年龄群需求模型将中国的亲生育政策与食品相关的多维环境足迹联系起来。我们发现，老年人（60岁 岁）将成为全国食品相关足迹总量的最大贡献者（到2050年约占37%），尽管他们的人均足迹低于平均水平。从2020年到2050年，预计土地利用足迹总量将增加，而温室气体排放、水消耗和富营养化足迹将下降。温室气体排放的减少主要是由环境强度的下降推动的，而其他三种足迹的变化主要是由于动态的人口规模。相对于无政策基准情景，到2050年，中国的人口政策可能导致环境足迹增加约3-18%，对可持续发展目标造成显著负担。土地利用足迹将成为最具政策敏感性的指标，在最积极的提高生育率政策下，其峰值年份将至少推迟10年。通过分析饮食变化情景，我们发现只有雄心勃勃的转变（在全国范围内采用富含植物的饮食）才能完全抵消政策引起的足迹增加，但水消耗除外，在这种情况下，富含植物的饮食会导致更高的足迹。我们的研究结果强调，饮食变化有助于缓解中国人口政策带来的额外环境压力，同时也强调了不同环境指标之间的关键权衡。

{"title":"Implications of demographic policies on China’s food-related environmental footprints amid population ageing","authors":"Qingling Wang , Han Zhang , Kuishuang Feng , Pan He , Richard Wood , Peipei Tian , Yiming Wang , Saige Wang , Yu Liu , Huifang Liu , Heran Zheng","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103082","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103082","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China has implemented a range of demographic policies to address population ageing, which exert significant potential impacts on aggregate food demand and associated environmental effects. However, prior studies have not integrated these policies and age-specific food consumption patterns into environmental impact projections. Here, we quantify China’s four food-related environmental footprints under representative demographic policy scenarios by employing a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) and a multi-regional input–output (MRIO) model. This study is the first attempt to link China’s pro-natalist policies with multi-dimensional food-related environmental footprints through an age-cohort demand model. We find older adults (> 60 years) will become the largest contributor to the nation’s total food-related footprints (accounting for approximately 37% by 2050), despite having below-average per capita footprints. From 2020 to 2050, total land use footprint is projected to increase, whereas GHG emissions, water consumption, and eutrophication footprints would decline. Reduction in GHG emissions is primarily driven by declining environmental intensities, while changes in other three footprints are mainly due to dynamic population sizes. Relative to the no-policy baseline scenario, China’s demographic policies could lead to an approximate 3–18% increase in environmental footprints by 2050, imposing a notable burden on sustainability targets. Land use footprint would emerge as the most policy-sensitive indicator, with its peak year delayed by at least a decade under the most aggressive fertility-boosting policy. By analyzing dietary change scenarios, we find only ambitious transitions (nationwide adoption of plant-rich diets) can fully offset the policy-induced footprint increases, except for water consumption, in which case plant-rich diets would conversely result in higher footprints. Our findings underscore dietary change can help mitigate the additional environmental pressures induced by China’s demographic policies, while also highlighting critical trade-offs across different environmental indicators.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103082"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145553550","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Technological breakthroughs can reverse the unintended negative impacts of carbon tariffs on China’s steel sector and global economy 技术突破可以扭转碳关税对中国钢铁行业和全球经济的意外负面影响

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103083

Zhixiong Weng , Chaoyi Guo , Xiaorui Liu , Pauline Miquel , Xinyuan Liu , Hancheng Dai

The implementation of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is expected to have far-reaching implications for the global economy. This study develops a global dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to primarily simulate the impacts of imposing carbon tariffs exclusively on China’s steel sector. The results show that a high carbon tariff scenario would exert considerable negative pressure on China’s economy, leading to an additional GDP loss of 72.02 billion USD by 2050, a reduction of 127.06 thousand jobs in the steel sector by 2060, and a loss of 32.63 billion USD in sectoral value added, alongside a notable decline in steel exports. While CBAM reduces the international competitiveness of China’s energy-intensive exports, it also induces export substitution effects in other countries. We also find that green technological advancement in China’s steel sector can substantially offset the adverse effects of carbon tariffs. Under a high-carbon-tariff and high-technology scenario, China could achieve an additional GDP gain of 281.56 billion USD by 2060, a 2.91% increase in steel sector employment (833.60 thousand jobs), and a 232.53 billion USD rise in value added. This study also warns of the potential rebound effect in carbon emissions, as technological progress may lead to electricity demand expansion in the steel sector, thereby offsetting some of the climate benefits. These findings suggest that countries must actively prepare for CBAM by reducing the carbon intensity of their exports and investing in long-term low-carbon technological transitions to maintain competitiveness in a carbon-constrained global economy.

欧盟碳边界调整机制（CBAM）的实施预计将对全球经济产生深远影响。本研究建立了一个全球动态可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型，主要模拟对中国钢铁行业征收碳关税的影响。研究结果表明，高碳关税情景将对中国经济造成相当大的负面压力，到2050年，中国GDP将额外损失720.2亿美元，到2060年，钢铁行业就业岗位将减少127.06万个，行业增加值将损失326.3亿美元，钢铁出口将显著下降。CBAM在降低中国能源密集型出口产品国际竞争力的同时，也在其他国家引发了出口替代效应。我们还发现，中国钢铁行业的绿色技术进步可以大大抵消碳关税的不利影响。在高碳关税和高技术情景下，到2060年，中国国内生产总值可增加2815.6亿美元，钢铁行业就业岗位增加2.91%（8336万个），增加值增加2325.3亿美元。本研究还对碳排放的潜在反弹效应提出了警告，因为技术进步可能导致钢铁行业的电力需求扩大，从而抵消了一些气候效益。这些发现表明，各国必须通过降低出口的碳强度和投资于长期低碳技术转型，积极为CBAM做好准备，以保持在碳限制的全球经济中的竞争力。

{"title":"Technological breakthroughs can reverse the unintended negative impacts of carbon tariffs on China’s steel sector and global economy","authors":"Zhixiong Weng , Chaoyi Guo , Xiaorui Liu , Pauline Miquel , Xinyuan Liu , Hancheng Dai","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103083","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103083","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The implementation of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is expected to have far-reaching implications for the global economy. This study develops a global dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to primarily simulate the impacts of imposing carbon tariffs exclusively on China’s steel sector. The results show that a high carbon tariff scenario would exert considerable negative pressure on China’s economy, leading to an additional GDP loss of 72.02 billion USD by 2050, a reduction of 127.06 thousand jobs in the steel sector by 2060, and a loss of 32.63 billion USD in sectoral value added, alongside a notable decline in steel exports. While CBAM reduces the international competitiveness of China’s energy-intensive exports, it also induces export substitution effects in other countries. We also find that green technological advancement in China’s steel sector can substantially offset the adverse effects of carbon tariffs. Under a high-carbon-tariff and high-technology scenario, China could achieve an additional GDP gain of 281.56 billion USD by 2060, a 2.91% increase in steel sector employment (833.60 thousand jobs), and a 232.53 billion USD rise in value added. This study also warns of the potential rebound effect in carbon emissions, as technological progress may lead to electricity demand expansion in the steel sector, thereby offsetting some of the climate benefits. These findings suggest that countries must actively prepare for CBAM by reducing the carbon intensity of their exports and investing in long-term low-carbon technological transitions to maintain competitiveness in a carbon-constrained global economy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103083"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145516908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A review of everyday urban adaptations: What they are and how they can advance progress in adaptation 对日常城市适应的回顾：它们是什么以及它们如何促进适应的进展

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103081

Cecilia Alda-Vidal , Marta Olazabal

Everyday practices are increasingly recognised as key to adapting to climate change. They emerge as especially important in cities where the complexity and uncertainty of the compound effects of crises and socio-economic contexts are a cradle for individual and community action. However, little is known regarding what constitutes everyday adaptation and how everyday urban adaptations help to effectively reduce climate risks. We conducted a systematic and thematic review and analysis to take stock of scientific publications. We retrieved 632 documented everyday adaptations in urban contexts from 45 relevant publications. We offer two important reflections that challenge prevailing approaches to the conceptualisation and assessment of everyday adaptations. First, our analysis highlights a high diversity of everyday adaptations and emphasises the importance of actions that encompass social relations and cooperative action and connect individual with collective well-being. Second, the study reveals a lack of methodological and data-driven consideration of the impacts and outcomes of everyday adaptations, resulting in a limited understanding of the contribution of these adaptations to overall progress in urban adaptation. To advance towards more comprehensive and nuanced assessments, we identify three key needs: (I) considering the interconnected and cumulative effects of everyday adaptation across scales, (II) exploring everyday imaginaries, and (III) accounting for justice and equity issues. Overall, our review underscores the need for more capacious conceptualisations of urban adaptation to account for the wide array of practices and multiple objectives it encompasses for urban dwellers, and highlights the importance of further work in the area of evaluation.

人们日益认识到，日常实践是适应气候变化的关键。在危机和社会经济背景的复合影响的复杂性和不确定性成为个人和社区行动摇篮的城市中，它们显得尤为重要。然而，对于日常适应的构成以及日常城市适应如何有助于有效降低气候风险，人们知之甚少。我们对科学出版物进行了系统的专题审查和分析。我们从45份相关出版物中检索了632份城市环境下的日常适应记录。我们提供了两个重要的反思，挑战了日常适应的概念化和评估的主流方法。首先，我们的分析强调了日常适应的高度多样性，并强调了包括社会关系和合作行动以及将个人与集体福祉联系起来的行动的重要性。其次，该研究表明，缺乏对日常适应的影响和结果的方法学和数据驱动的考虑，导致对这些适应对城市适应总体进展的贡献的理解有限。为了推进更全面和细致的评估，我们确定了三个关键需求：(1)考虑跨尺度的日常适应的相互关联和累积效应；(2)探索日常想象；(3)考虑正义和公平问题。总体而言，我们的回顾强调了城市适应需要更宽泛的概念，以考虑城市居民的广泛实践和多重目标，并强调了在评估领域进一步开展工作的重要性。

{"title":"A review of everyday urban adaptations: What they are and how they can advance progress in adaptation","authors":"Cecilia Alda-Vidal , Marta Olazabal","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103081","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103081","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Everyday practices are increasingly recognised as key to adapting to climate change. They emerge as especially important in cities where the complexity and uncertainty of the compound effects of crises and socio-economic contexts are a cradle for individual and community action. However, little is known regarding what constitutes everyday adaptation and how everyday urban adaptations help to effectively reduce climate risks. We conducted a systematic and thematic review and analysis to take stock of scientific publications. We retrieved 632 documented everyday adaptations in urban contexts from 45 relevant publications. We offer two important reflections that challenge prevailing approaches to the conceptualisation and assessment of everyday adaptations. First, our analysis highlights a high diversity of everyday adaptations and emphasises the importance of actions that encompass social relations and cooperative action and connect individual with collective well-being. Second, the study reveals a lack of methodological and data-driven consideration of the impacts and outcomes of everyday adaptations, resulting in a limited understanding of the contribution of these adaptations to overall progress in urban adaptation. To advance towards more comprehensive and nuanced assessments, we identify three key needs: (I) considering the interconnected and cumulative effects of everyday adaptation across scales, (II) exploring everyday imaginaries, and (III) accounting for justice and equity issues. Overall, our review underscores the need for more capacious conceptualisations of urban adaptation to account for the wide array of practices and multiple objectives it encompasses for urban dwellers, and highlights the importance of further work in the area of evaluation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103081"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145461636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Towards ‘greening’ trade? The environment in the French, German and EU supply chain laws 走向“绿色”贸易？环境在法国、德国和欧盟的供应链法律

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-10-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103078

Lena Partzsch, Helen Breunig

The European Union (EU) recently adopted the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), which its 27 member states must now transpose into national law. Starting in mid-2026, the Directive aims to encourage sustainable and responsible corporate behavior in global supply chains. France and Germany had already independently enacted their own national supply chain laws, the 2017 Loi de Viligence (LdV) and the 2021 Lieferkettensorgfaltspflichtengesetz (LkSG). This article examines the extent to which the new supply chain legislation addresses environmental burden shifting through international trade. We develop an analytical framework on scope, procedure and enforceability with respect to the environment. To do so, we identify the central demands of environmental non-governmental organizations (ENGOs), drawing on their campaign materials, expert interviews, and participant observation at stakeholder events. Our results show a regulatory ’race to the top’ with ‘bends’ in the sense that the German law lags behind the French law in some aspects, but the new CSDDD is the most precise and comprehensive in all aspects of supply chain legislation. We conclude that the stage is set for the ’greening’ of international trade.

欧盟（EU）最近通过了《企业可持续发展尽职调查指令》（CSDDD），其27个成员国现在必须将其转化为国家法律。从2026年中期开始，该指令旨在鼓励全球供应链中可持续和负责任的企业行为。法国和德国已经独立制定了各自的国家供应链法律，分别是2017年的《供应链法律》（LdV）和2021年的《供应链法律》（LkSG）。本文考察了新的供应链立法在多大程度上解决了通过国际贸易转移环境负担的问题。我们在环境方面制定了范围、程序和可执行性的分析框架。为此，我们根据非政府环境组织（ENGOs）的宣传材料、专家访谈和参与者对利益相关者活动的观察，确定了它们的核心需求。我们的研究结果显示，在德国法律在某些方面落后于法国法律的意义上，监管“竞相达到顶峰”，但新的CSDDD在供应链立法的各个方面都是最精确和全面的。我们的结论是，国际贸易“绿色化”的阶段已经准备好了。

{"title":"Towards ‘greening’ trade? The environment in the French, German and EU supply chain laws","authors":"Lena Partzsch, Helen Breunig","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103078","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103078","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The European Union (EU) recently adopted the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), which its 27 member states must now transpose into national law. Starting in mid-2026, the Directive aims to encourage sustainable and responsible corporate behavior in global supply chains. France and Germany had already independently enacted their own national supply chain laws, the 2017 Loi de Viligence (LdV) and the 2021 Lieferkettensorgfaltspflichtengesetz (LkSG). This article examines the extent to which the new supply chain legislation addresses environmental burden shifting through international trade. We develop an analytical framework on scope, procedure and enforceability with respect to the environment. To do so, we identify the central demands of environmental non-governmental organizations (ENGOs), drawing on their campaign materials, expert interviews, and participant observation at stakeholder events. Our results show a regulatory ’race to the top’ with ‘bends’ in the sense that the German law lags behind the French law in some aspects, but the new CSDDD is the most precise and comprehensive in all aspects of supply chain legislation. We conclude that the stage is set for the ’greening’ of international trade.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103078"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145412134","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A novel approach to developing local flood vulnerability scenarios based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways framework: Sectoral risks and policy implications 基于共享社会经济路径框架的开发地方洪水脆弱性情景的新方法：部门风险和政策影响

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103079

Bien Thanh Vu , Olabisi S. Obaitor , Antje Katzschner , Lena C. Grobusch , Dominic Sett , Andrea Ortiz-Vargas , Michael Hagenlocher , Ulrike Schinkel , Felix Bachofer , Linh Khanh Hoang Nguyen , Matthias Garschagen

Developing locally tailored vulnerability scenarios is crucial for effective flood risk management, yet existing approaches often lack integration with long-term socioeconomic trajectories. To address this gap, the study introduces an innovative methodology that downscales global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and integrates them with current vulnerability data to create future vulnerability scenarios for key sectors. This approach is applied to Hue City, Central Vietnam as a case study, focusing on health, agriculture, transport, and water, to illustrate its practical application. The findings indicate that under SSP1, characterized by sustainable growth, socio-economic policies focused on sustainability lead to substantial vulnerability reductions across all sectors. Health systems become more resilient, sustainable agricultural practices minimize economic losses, and improved infrastructure reduces transport disruptions and water contamination risks. SSP2 reflects a continuation of current socio-economic trends, resulting in moderate improvements; however, incremental policy changes and resource constraints leave persistent vulnerabilities. In contrast, SSP3, marked by fragmented and poorly managed growth, exacerbates flood risks, where weak healthcare systems, fragile agricultural practices, inadequate transport infrastructure, and minimal water contamination controls intensify flood-related impacts. This study demonstrates the importance of mainstreaming socioeconomic dynamics into flood risk management and offers a transferable framework for scenario-based planning in diverse regional contexts. Future research should aim to quantify vulnerability trajectories, thereby enhancing resilience planning and supporting data-driven decision-making in flood-prone areas.

制定适合当地的脆弱性情景对于有效的洪水风险管理至关重要，但现有方法往往缺乏与长期社会经济轨迹的整合。为了解决这一差距，该研究引入了一种创新的方法，该方法缩小了全球共享社会经济路径（ssp）的规模，并将其与当前的脆弱性数据相结合，以创建关键部门的未来脆弱性情景。这一方法以越南中部顺化市为案例研究，重点放在卫生、农业、交通和水方面，以说明其实际应用。研究结果表明，在以可持续增长为特征的SSP1下，注重可持续性的社会经济政策导致所有部门的脆弱性大幅降低。卫生系统变得更有弹性，可持续的农业做法最大限度地减少经济损失，改善的基础设施减少了运输中断和水污染风险。SSP2反映了当前社会经济趋势的延续，导致适度改善；但是，增量策略更改和资源约束会留下持久的漏洞。相比之下，SSP3以分散和管理不善的增长为特征，加剧了洪水风险，其中薄弱的医疗体系、脆弱的农业实践、不充分的交通基础设施和最低限度的水污染控制加剧了与洪水相关的影响。该研究证明了将社会经济动态纳入洪水风险管理主流的重要性，并为不同区域背景下基于情景的规划提供了一个可转移的框架。未来的研究应致力于量化脆弱性轨迹，从而加强洪水易发地区的恢复力规划和支持数据驱动的决策。

{"title":"A novel approach to developing local flood vulnerability scenarios based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways framework: Sectoral risks and policy implications","authors":"Bien Thanh Vu , Olabisi S. Obaitor , Antje Katzschner , Lena C. Grobusch , Dominic Sett , Andrea Ortiz-Vargas , Michael Hagenlocher , Ulrike Schinkel , Felix Bachofer , Linh Khanh Hoang Nguyen , Matthias Garschagen","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103079","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103079","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Developing locally tailored vulnerability scenarios is crucial for effective flood risk management, yet existing approaches often lack integration with long-term socioeconomic trajectories. To address this gap, the study introduces an innovative methodology that downscales global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and integrates them with current vulnerability data to create future vulnerability scenarios for key sectors. This approach is applied to Hue City, Central Vietnam as a case study, focusing on health, agriculture, transport, and water, to illustrate its practical application. The findings indicate that under SSP1, characterized by sustainable growth, socio-economic policies focused on sustainability lead to substantial vulnerability reductions across all sectors. Health systems become more resilient, sustainable agricultural practices minimize economic losses, and improved infrastructure reduces transport disruptions and water contamination risks. SSP2 reflects a continuation of current socio-economic trends, resulting in moderate improvements; however, incremental policy changes and resource constraints leave persistent vulnerabilities. In contrast, SSP3, marked by fragmented and poorly managed growth, exacerbates flood risks, where weak healthcare systems, fragile agricultural practices, inadequate transport infrastructure, and minimal water contamination controls intensify flood-related impacts. This study demonstrates the importance of mainstreaming socioeconomic dynamics into flood risk management and offers a transferable framework for scenario-based planning in diverse regional contexts. Future research should aim to quantify vulnerability trajectories, thereby enhancing resilience planning and supporting data-driven decision-making in flood-prone areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103079"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145382577","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The potential negative impact of the UNFCCC: An analysis of sectoral, geographical, and temporal problem shifts from climate policies and measures in 25 industrialized countries 《联合国气候变化框架公约》的潜在负面影响：25个工业化国家气候政策和措施的部门、地理和时间问题转变分析

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103075

Ashok Vardhan Adipudi, Rakhyun E. Kim, Frank Biermann

Climate mitigation policies and measures, while well-intentioned, can generate unintended consequences—a phenomenon known as ‘problem-shifting’, where efforts to curb climate change inadvertently create new environmental or socio-economic challenges. Although issues such as carbon leakage have been acknowledged under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, no systematic analysis has examined the magnitude and direction of these shifts. This study analyzes 182 national communications submitted by 25 Global North countries between 1994 and 2023, identifying 718 instances of problem-shifting risk across 712 climate policies and measures. These risks span sectors, institutions, and regions, manifesting as cascading sectoral shifts, transboundary displacements from the Global North to the Global South, and temporal shifts that intensify climate burdens for future generations. Communities in developing regions—especially those dependent on vulnerable sectors—face disproportionate impacts, compounding existing vulnerabilities. The findings underscore the urgent need for holistic, Earth-system-based approaches to climate action that account for system-wide human-environment interactions, minimize unintended consequences, and prevent further problem-shifting. A transition towards such integrative strategies is essential to achieving equitable and sustainable outcomes in global climate governance.

气候减缓政策和措施虽然出发点是好的，但可能产生意想不到的后果——一种被称为“问题转移”的现象，即遏制气候变化的努力无意中造成了新的环境或社会经济挑战。尽管《联合国气候变化框架公约》已经承认了碳泄漏等问题，但还没有系统的分析来检验这些变化的幅度和方向。本研究分析了25个北半球国家在1994年至2023年间提交的182份国家信息通报，确定了712项气候政策和措施中718个问题转移风险实例。这些风险跨越部门、机构和地区，表现为级联的部门转移、从全球北方向全球南方的跨界迁移，以及加剧子孙后代气候负担的时间转移。发展中地区的社区，特别是那些依赖脆弱部门的社区，面临着不成比例的影响，加剧了现有的脆弱性。研究结果强调，迫切需要采取全面的、基于地球系统的气候行动方法，以考虑全系统的人与环境相互作用，最大限度地减少意外后果，并防止进一步的问题转移。向这种综合战略过渡对于在全球气候治理中取得公平和可持续的成果至关重要。

{"title":"The potential negative impact of the UNFCCC: An analysis of sectoral, geographical, and temporal problem shifts from climate policies and measures in 25 industrialized countries","authors":"Ashok Vardhan Adipudi, Rakhyun E. Kim, Frank Biermann","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103075","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103075","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate mitigation policies and measures, while well-intentioned, can generate unintended consequences—a phenomenon known as ‘problem-shifting’, where efforts to curb climate change inadvertently create new environmental or socio-economic challenges. Although issues such as carbon leakage have been acknowledged under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, no systematic analysis has examined the magnitude and direction of these shifts. This study analyzes 182 national communications submitted by 25 Global North countries between 1994 and 2023, identifying 718 instances of problem-shifting risk across 712 climate policies and measures. These risks span sectors, institutions, and regions, manifesting as cascading sectoral shifts, transboundary displacements from the Global North to the Global South, and temporal shifts that intensify climate burdens for future generations. Communities in developing regions—especially those dependent on vulnerable sectors—face disproportionate impacts, compounding existing vulnerabilities. The findings underscore the urgent need for holistic, Earth-system-based approaches to climate action that account for system-wide human-environment interactions, minimize unintended consequences, and prevent further problem-shifting. A transition towards such integrative strategies is essential to achieving equitable and sustainable outcomes in global climate governance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103075"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145358855","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

TOWARDS RESILIENT AND INCLUSIVE CLIMATE COMPATIBLE DEVELOPMENT: A PARTICIPATORY, MIXED-METHOD SCENARIOS APPROACH FOR ZAMBIA 实现有弹性和包容性的气候兼容发展：赞比亚的参与式混合方法方案

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103072

Nick Hughes , Mulima Nyambe-Mubanga , Willard Mapulanga , Malonga Hazemba , Stephen Chileshe , Bernard Tembo , Jim Watson , Jennifer Cronin , Steve Pye , Julia Tomei , Meron Tesfamichael , Yacob Mulugetta , Simon Bawakyillenuo , Aba Obrumah Crentsil

Climate compatible development aims to align climate change mitigation and adaptation with social and economic development. Successful climate compatible development must be socially inclusive, and resilient to external shocks. Zambia is a country at the frontline of climate change, with multiple development challenges, and ambitions to pursue a climate compatible development pathway. Scenarios are tools with a long history of application in strategic planning, and may be suitable tools to help countries explore climate compatible development. Therefore, we developed a novel participatory, mixed-method scenario process, to explore pathways of resilient and inclusive climate compatible development for Zambia. We took a stakeholder-led participatory approach, and combined qualitative scenario development techniques with quantitative energy system modelling. We compared a scenario characterised by centralised governance and infrastructure, large-scale export-led industries and continued urbanisation, with one characterised by greater decentralisation of governance, investment decisions and economic development strategies, which maintains the viability of rural livelihoods and slows the urbanisation trend. The scenarios provide a framework for considering opportunities and risks in planning for climate compatible development, and suggest that Zambian decision-makers should: test infrastructure investments and long-term economic plans for both climate and economic resilience; pursue mutually beneficial, equitable development partnerships with like-minded international partners; and appropriately allocate responsibility to different scales of governance and ensure coordination between them. The issues highlighted by the scenarios are of relevance to other countries facing similar challenges. The paper demonstrates that a participatory, mixed-method scenario approach provides a useful framework to explore climate compatible development.

气候兼容发展旨在使减缓和适应气候变化与社会和经济发展相结合。成功的气候相容发展必须具有社会包容性和抵御外部冲击的能力。赞比亚是气候变化最前沿的国家，面临多重发展挑战，有追求气候兼容发展道路的雄心。情景是在战略规划中具有悠久应用历史的工具，可能是帮助各国探索气候相容发展的合适工具。因此，我们开发了一种新颖的参与式混合方法情景流程，以探索赞比亚弹性和包容性气候兼容发展的途径。我们采用了利益相关者主导的参与式方法，并将定性情景开发技术与定量能源系统建模相结合。我们比较了一种以集中治理和基础设施、大规模出口导向型产业和持续城市化为特征的情景，以及一种以更大程度的分散治理、投资决策和经济发展战略为特征的情景，后者维持了农村生计的可行性，并减缓了城市化趋势。这些情景为考虑气候相容发展规划中的机遇和风险提供了一个框架，并建议赞比亚决策者应该：测试基础设施投资和气候和经济韧性的长期经济计划；与志同道合的国际伙伴建立互利、公平的发展伙伴关系；合理分配不同治理规模的责任，保证治理规模之间的协调。这些情景所强调的问题与面临类似挑战的其他国家有关。本文论证了参与式、混合方法情景方法为探索气候相容发展提供了一个有用的框架。

{"title":"TOWARDS RESILIENT AND INCLUSIVE CLIMATE COMPATIBLE DEVELOPMENT: A PARTICIPATORY, MIXED-METHOD SCENARIOS APPROACH FOR ZAMBIA","authors":"Nick Hughes , Mulima Nyambe-Mubanga , Willard Mapulanga , Malonga Hazemba , Stephen Chileshe , Bernard Tembo , Jim Watson , Jennifer Cronin , Steve Pye , Julia Tomei , Meron Tesfamichael , Yacob Mulugetta , Simon Bawakyillenuo , Aba Obrumah Crentsil","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103072","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103072","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate compatible development aims to align climate change mitigation and adaptation with social and economic development. Successful climate compatible development must be socially inclusive, and resilient to external shocks. Zambia is a country at the frontline of climate change, with multiple development challenges, and ambitions to pursue a climate compatible development pathway. Scenarios are tools with a long history of application in strategic planning, and may be suitable tools to help countries explore climate compatible development. Therefore, we developed a novel participatory, mixed-method scenario process, to explore pathways of resilient and inclusive climate compatible development for Zambia. We took a stakeholder-led participatory approach, and combined qualitative scenario development techniques with quantitative energy system modelling. We compared a scenario characterised by centralised governance and infrastructure, large-scale export-led industries and continued urbanisation, with one characterised by greater decentralisation of governance, investment decisions and economic development strategies, which maintains the viability of rural livelihoods and slows the urbanisation trend. The scenarios provide a framework for considering opportunities and risks in planning for climate compatible development, and suggest that Zambian decision-makers should: test infrastructure investments and long-term economic plans for both climate and economic resilience; pursue mutually beneficial, equitable development partnerships with like-minded international partners; and appropriately allocate responsibility to different scales of governance and ensure coordination between them. The issues highlighted by the scenarios are of relevance to other countries facing similar challenges. The paper demonstrates that a participatory, mixed-method scenario approach provides a useful framework to explore climate compatible development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103072"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145358857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Will women save the planet? Correlation, causality, and common causes 女性会拯救地球吗？相关性、因果关系和共同原因

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103077

Ingrid Hjort , Gry Østenstad

While evidence suggests a strong positive cross-country correlation between women’s empowerment and progress on environmental and climate issues, the causal mechanisms remain unclear. This article critically examines the assumption that women’s empowerment drives climate action and environmental protection. By exploring possible causal channels and existing empirical evidence, we highlight the need to distinguish causality from correlation in this domain. We call for an exploration into whether advancements in women’s empowerment and environmental issues are determined by shared underlying factors connected to economic, political and institutional aspects. A more nuanced understanding of these complex interrelations is essential for developing effective and evidence-based environmental and gender policies.

虽然有证据表明，妇女赋权与在环境和气候问题上取得进展之间存在强烈的跨国正相关关系，但其因果机制仍不清楚。本文批判性地审视了妇女赋权推动气候行动和环境保护的假设。通过探索可能的因果渠道和现有的经验证据，我们强调了在这个领域区分因果关系和相关性的必要性。我们呼吁探讨妇女赋权和环境问题的进展是否由与经济、政治和体制方面有关的共同潜在因素决定。更细致地了解这些复杂的相互关系对于制定有效的、以证据为基础的环境和性别政策至关重要。

引用次数: 0

Trade of crop products contribute to the alleviation of global nitrate leaching risks 农作物产品的贸易有助于减轻全球硝酸盐淋失风险

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103074

Xuchong Chen , Ling Liu , Yu Lu , Xuan Wang , Zhaohai Bai , Lin Ma

International crop trade plays a pivotal yet understudied role in mitigating global nitrate leaching, a major driver of water pollution. By analyzing 59 years of data (1961–2019) across 190 countries and 164 crops, we quantify how changes in global crop sourcing are associated with the average nitrate leaching intensity of production—defined at the national scale as kg NO₃⁻ per kcal or per kg protein. Our findings reveal that global trade reduced nitrate leaching by 53.6 Tg (8.4 %) and 130 Tg (20 %) for calorie- and protein-equivalent production in the past 59 years, respectively, primarily by relocating agricultural output to regions with lower leaching intensities. Exporting nations, such as the USA, Brazil, and Argentina, exhibited leaching rates 20–40 % below global averages, potentially due to better nitrogen management practices. Conversely, import-dependent countries like China and Japan sourced crops from higher-intensity systems, highlighting disparities in environmental governance. Post-2000, trade optimality improved as low-leaching exporters expanded, yet geopolitical fragmentation and climate risks threaten these gains. We propose integrating leaching intensity metrics into trade agreements and bolstering sustainable practices to align food security with water quality goals. This study underscores trade’s dual role as a catalyst for environmental mitigation and a source of systemic risk, offering actionable pathways to safeguard freshwater ecosystems within planetary boundaries.

国际作物贸易在减轻全球硝酸盐淋滤（水污染的主要驱动因素）方面发挥着关键但尚未得到充分研究的作用。通过分析190个国家和164种作物59年（1961-2019年）的数据，我们量化了全球作物来源的变化与生产的平均硝酸盐淋失强度（在国家尺度上定义为每千卡或每公斤蛋白质每公斤NO3 -）之间的关系。我们的研究结果表明，在过去的59年中，全球贸易主要通过将农业产出转移到浸出强度较低的地区，分别减少了53.6 Tg（8.4%）和130 Tg（20%）的热量和蛋白质当量生产的硝酸盐浸出。出口国家，如美国、巴西和阿根廷，其淋滤率比全球平均水平低20 - 40%，这可能是由于更好的氮管理措施。相反，中国和日本等依赖进口的国家从强度更高的系统采购作物，凸显了环境治理方面的差异。2000年后，随着低浸出率出口国的扩大，贸易最优性得到改善，但地缘政治碎片化和气候风险威胁着这些成果。我们建议将浸出强度指标纳入贸易协定，并加强可持续实践，使粮食安全与水质目标保持一致。这项研究强调了贸易作为环境缓解催化剂和系统性风险来源的双重作用，为在地球边界内保护淡水生态系统提供了可行的途径。

{"title":"Trade of crop products contribute to the alleviation of global nitrate leaching risks","authors":"Xuchong Chen , Ling Liu , Yu Lu , Xuan Wang , Zhaohai Bai , Lin Ma","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103074","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103074","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>International crop trade plays a pivotal yet understudied role in mitigating global nitrate leaching, a major driver of water pollution. By analyzing 59 years of data (1961–2019) across 190 countries and 164 crops, we quantify how changes in global crop sourcing are associated with the average nitrate leaching intensity of production—defined at the national scale as kg NO<sub>3</sub><sup>−</sup> per kcal or per kg protein. Our findings reveal that global trade reduced nitrate leaching by 53.6 Tg (8.4 %) and 130 Tg (20 %) for calorie- and protein-equivalent production in the past 59 years, respectively, primarily by relocating agricultural output to regions with lower leaching intensities. Exporting nations, such as the USA, Brazil, and Argentina, exhibited leaching rates 20–40 % below global averages, potentially due to better nitrogen management practices. Conversely, import-dependent countries like China and Japan sourced crops from higher-intensity systems, highlighting disparities in environmental governance. Post-2000, trade optimality improved as low-leaching exporters expanded, yet geopolitical fragmentation and climate risks threaten these gains. We propose integrating leaching intensity metrics into trade agreements and bolstering sustainable practices to align food security with water quality goals. This study underscores trade’s dual role as a catalyst for environmental mitigation and a source of systemic risk, offering actionable pathways to safeguard freshwater ecosystems within planetary boundaries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103074"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145324834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Bridging extreme climate risks, financial precarity, and adaptation gaps: Advancing inclusive adaptation in rainfed agricultural systems 弥合极端气候风险、金融不稳定和适应差距：推进雨养农业系统的包容性适应

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-10-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103073

Van Touch , Ariane Utomo , De Li Liu , Nicholas Harrigan , Le-Anne Bannan , Panhaleak Chay , Caitlin Finlayson , Kirt Hainzer , Andrew McGregor , Katharine McKinnon , Lita Mom , Sophanara Phan , Pherom Song , Daniel K.Y. Tan , Thong Anh Tran , Saroeut Yong , Brian R. Cook

The intensification of extreme climate events is no longer a distant threat but is a pressing, global reality for smallholders. This study unpacks the complex interconnections among extreme climate events, perceived risks, and financial constraints to adaptation by integrating multi-source evidence – from historical climate trends and downscaled climate projections from 25 General Circulation Models to household census data from 996 smallholder households in Northwest Cambodia’s rainfed agricultural region. Employing statistical modelling, change detection, trend analysis, and correlation assessments, this study uncovers intensifying and shifting patterns in wet and dry spells, uncovering their cascading effects on smallholder rainfed agricultural productivity. These findings reveal a worsening pattern of extreme wet and dry spells. Prolonged wet periods are increasing risks of flooding, soil erosion, and nutrient leaching, while prolonged dry spells lasting up to 35 days threaten agricultural productivity and food security. Climate projections under SSP245 and SSP585 indicate increased intensification of these extremes, with wet spells lengthening at three times the rate under high-emissions scenarios and dry spells becoming shorter yet more severe. The majority of smallholders perceive intense rainfall and agricultural drought as the most pressing climate risks, aligning with observed trends, while financial constraints emerge as a critical barrier to adaptation. These findings underscore the pressing need for an interdisciplinary approach that integrates climate science, socio-economic realities, and policy frameworks. Advancing inclusive, systems-level adaptation requires expanding access to climate finance, risk-sharing mechanisms, and extension services, alongside strengthening climate literacy and early warning systems. This study contributes to global adaptation discourse by offering actionable insights to inform equitable, context-specific policies that enhance smallholder resilience to climate extremes.

极端气候事件的加剧不再是遥远的威胁，而是小农面临的紧迫的全球现实。本研究通过整合多来源证据，揭示了极端气候事件、感知风险和适应的财政限制之间的复杂相互关系，这些证据包括历史气候趋势和25个环流模型的缩小规模的气候预测，以及柬埔寨西北部雨养农业地区996个小农家庭的住户普查数据。通过统计建模、变化检测、趋势分析和相关性评估，本研究揭示了干湿期的加剧和变化模式，揭示了它们对小农雨养农业生产力的级联效应。这些发现揭示了极端干湿天气的恶化模式。长时间的雨季增加了洪水、土壤侵蚀和养分流失的风险，而持续长达35天的干旱期则威胁着农业生产力和粮食安全。SSP245和SSP585下的气候预估表明，这些极端事件的加剧程度有所增加，在高排放情景下，湿润期的延长速度是高排放情景下的三倍，干旱期变得更短但更严重。大多数小农认为强降雨和农业干旱是最紧迫的气候风险，这与观察到的趋势一致，而资金限制成为适应的关键障碍。这些发现强调，迫切需要一种跨学科的方法，将气候科学、社会经济现实和政策框架结合起来。推进包容性的系统级适应需要扩大气候融资、风险分担机制和推广服务的可及性，同时加强气候素养和预警系统。本研究通过提供可操作的见解，为提高小农对极端气候的抵御能力的公平、因地制宜的政策提供信息，从而为全球适应话语做出贡献。

{"title":"Bridging extreme climate risks, financial precarity, and adaptation gaps: Advancing inclusive adaptation in rainfed agricultural systems","authors":"Van Touch , Ariane Utomo , De Li Liu , Nicholas Harrigan , Le-Anne Bannan , Panhaleak Chay , Caitlin Finlayson , Kirt Hainzer , Andrew McGregor , Katharine McKinnon , Lita Mom , Sophanara Phan , Pherom Song , Daniel K.Y. Tan , Thong Anh Tran , Saroeut Yong , Brian R. Cook","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103073","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103073","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The intensification of extreme climate events is no longer a distant threat but is a pressing, global reality for smallholders. This study unpacks the complex interconnections among extreme climate events, perceived risks, and financial constraints to adaptation by integrating multi-source evidence – from historical climate trends and downscaled climate projections from 25 General Circulation Models to household census data from 996 smallholder households in Northwest Cambodia’s rainfed agricultural region. Employing statistical modelling, change detection, trend analysis, and correlation assessments, this study uncovers intensifying and shifting patterns in wet and dry spells, uncovering their cascading effects on smallholder rainfed agricultural productivity. These findings reveal a worsening pattern of extreme wet and dry spells. Prolonged wet periods are increasing risks of flooding, soil erosion, and nutrient leaching, while prolonged dry spells lasting up to 35 days threaten agricultural productivity and food security. Climate projections under SSP245 and SSP585 indicate increased intensification of these extremes, with wet spells lengthening at three times the rate under high-emissions scenarios and dry spells becoming shorter yet more severe. The majority of smallholders perceive intense rainfall and agricultural drought as the most pressing climate risks, aligning with observed trends, while financial constraints emerge as a critical barrier to adaptation. These findings underscore the pressing need for an interdisciplinary approach that integrates climate science, socio-economic realities, and policy frameworks. Advancing inclusive, systems-level adaptation requires expanding access to climate finance, risk-sharing mechanisms, and extension services, alongside strengthening climate literacy and early warning systems. This study contributes to global adaptation discourse by offering actionable insights to inform equitable, context-specific policies that enhance smallholder resilience to climate extremes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103073"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145324836","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0