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The energy system transition pathway towards carbon reduction using a model-coupling approach 利用模型耦合方法实现能源系统向碳减排过渡的途径
IF 8.6 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102945
Jiali Zheng , Xiaoqing Hou , Jiaming Yang , Lianyang Jiao , D’Maris Coffman , Shouyang Wang
The energy system transition is widely regarded as an important strategy to achieve carbon reduction and is aligned with China's commitment to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030. Unfortunately, most modelling approaches in the existing literature do not pay sufficient attention to inter-sectoral dynamics. By using a model-coupling approach, this paper aims to study inter-sectoral energy consumption flows from 2000 to 2021 and to explore energy system transition pathways at the national and city levels. The results show that historically heavy industries have consistently maintained a high share of energy consumption and emissions accounting for 49.9 % and 60.7 % respectively by 2021, mainly caused by direct energy-resource inputs rather than post-processing inputs. In the scenario analyses, compared to the baseline scenario, the national EES scenario can reduce energy consumption by 6.7 % and emissions by 24.6 % in 2030, while the EES_CCS scenario can further reduce emissions by 48.4 %. Furthermore, the energy consumption and CO2 emissions across cities are influenced by the industrial structure, the degree of electrification, and the amount of new energy installed.
能源系统转型被广泛认为是实现碳减排的重要战略,与中国到 2030 年达到碳排放峰值的承诺相一致。遗憾的是,现有文献中的大多数建模方法并未充分关注部门间的动态变化。本文采用模型耦合方法,旨在研究 2000 年至 2021 年的部门间能源消费流,并探索国家和城市层面的能源系统转型路径。结果表明,历史上重工业一直保持着较高的能源消耗和排放份额,到 2021 年分别占 49.9% 和 60.7%,这主要是由直接的能源资源投入而不是后处理投入造成的。在情景分析中,与基准情景相比,国家 EES 情景在 2030 年可减少 6.7% 的能耗和 24.6% 的排放,而 EES_CCS 情景可进一步减少 48.4% 的排放。此外,各城市的能源消耗和二氧化碳排放量还受到产业结构、电气化程度和新能源装机量的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Enormous inter-country inequality of embodied carbon emissions and its driving forces in South America 南美洲国家间体现碳排放的巨大不平等及其驱动力
IF 8.6 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102944
Zhenyu Wang , Huaxi Peng , Jing Meng , Heran Zheng , Jie Li , Jingwen Huo , Yuxin Chen , Quan Wen , Xiaotian Ma , Dabo Guan
South America is a crucial developing region under significant pressure to reduce emissions and achieve carbon neutrality. This study fills a vital gap by comprehensively analysing the continent’s carbon emissions from both production and consumption perspectives. Utilizing the most up-to-date global Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) models, we examine the emissions embodied in the internal and external trade of nine major South American countries, tracing the emission flows from their origins to final consumers and analyzing the socio-economic drivers behind these patterns. Our analysis reveals that regions bearing heavier burdens of energy-intensive production often face exacerbated economic disparities. Trade-related emissions are embodied in heavy industry and transportation, and the share of emissions attributable to developing countries is continuously climbing. Brazil is the sole net-exporter of emissions, while Colombia has become a significant net importer. Energy intensity offsets the increase in carbon emissions caused by per capita consumption, especially in Brazil. Meanwhile, Colombia experiences an increase in emissions due to its energy structure, whereas a general trend towards decreasing emissions is noted elsewhere. The impact of the industrial chain is mainly domestic and extends forward along the supply chain. Interestingly, the consumption structure reduces emissions in Argentina and Bolivia, but increases them in other countries. Key emission mitigation initiatives include Brazil enhancing its leadership in bioenergy, Chile intensifying the development of green industrial chains for high-emission sectors, and Uruguay advancing its wind energy projects to increase clean energy exports, etc. These measures could facilitate targeted and effective decarbonization while promoting equitable and sustainable economic development across South America.
南美洲是一个重要的发展中地区,面临着减排和实现碳中和的巨大压力。本研究从生产和消费两个角度全面分析了南美大陆的碳排放量,填补了这一重要空白。利用最新的全球多地区投入产出(MRIO)模型,我们研究了南美洲九个主要国家在内部和外部贸易中所体现的排放量,追踪了从排放源到最终消费者的排放流,并分析了这些模式背后的社会经济驱动因素。我们的分析表明,能源密集型生产负担较重的地区往往面临着经济差距加剧的问题。与贸易有关的排放体现在重工业和运输业中,发展中国家的排放比例不断攀升。巴西是唯一的排放净出口国,而哥伦比亚已成为重要的净进口国。能源强度抵消了人均消费造成的碳排放量的增加,尤其是在巴西。与此同时,哥伦比亚的能源结构导致排放量增加,而其他地区的排放量总体呈下降趋势。产业链的影响主要在国内,并沿着供应链向前延伸。有趣的是,消费结构减少了阿根廷和玻利维亚的排放量,但却增加了其他国家的排放量。主要的减排举措包括巴西加强其在生物能源领域的领导地位,智利加强高排放行业绿色产业链的发展,乌拉圭推进风能项目以增加清洁能源出口等。这些措施可以促进有针对性和有效的去碳化,同时促进整个南美洲公平和可持续的经济发展。
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引用次数: 0
Global wildfire activity re-visited 重新审视全球野火活动
IF 8.6 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102894
Opha Pauline Dube
Investments in wildfire management are increasing globally; however, frequent and intense fires continue to threaten humans and natural systems. Moreover, comprehensive assessments of fire damage and cost are lacking. Current fire risk is considered moderate compared to that under global warming of 1.5 °C. Several works link rising fire risk to the fire exclusion paradigm, land use, and climate change. The multifaceted nature of the global wildfire activity requires holistic, integrative perspectives to stimulate novel solutions. This review elucidated the transformative changes in the human-fire relationship that led to the globalization of the fire exclusion policies and emergence of a complex global fire activity. The use of fire in the impetus toward industrialization and its management thereafter was at the expense of millions dispossessed of their land, curtailing development of their knowledge domains, introducing inequality, and poverty, which enhanced the reliance on fire as a tool to meet the livelihood needs within a fire exclusion policy environment. Industrialization marked the beginning of climate change-fire positive feedback loops that enhanced vulnerability worldwide. Current evidence shows that not all frequently burnt areas are major sources of emissions. The potential to use fire exclusion for emission reduction could downplay further the role of fire in carbon storage, ecological processes and land use fire needs, increasing reliance on “covert fire use practices,” and exacerbating incidents of large fires that surpass fire suppression capabilities given the contribution of climate change on fire risk. The globally complex fire activity points to the need for adaptive, participatory, multi-level, polycentric governance approaches.
全球在野火管理方面的投资正在不断增加;然而,频繁而猛烈的火灾仍在威胁着人类和自然系统。此外,目前还缺乏对火灾损失和成本的全面评估。与全球变暖 1.5 ℃ 的情况相比,目前的火灾风险被认为是中等的。一些著作将不断上升的火灾风险与火灾排斥模式、土地利用和气候变化联系起来。全球野火活动的多面性要求从整体、综合的角度来激发新的解决方案。本综述阐明了人类与火灾关系的转变,这种转变导致了禁火政策的全球化和复杂的全球火灾活动的出现。在推动工业化的过程中对火的使用以及此后对火的管理是以牺牲数百万被剥夺土地的人的利益为代价的,这限制了他们知识领域的发展,带来了不平等和贫困,从而加强了对火的依赖,使其成为在禁火政策环境下满足生计需求的一种工具。工业化标志着气候变化--火灾正反馈循环的开始,这加剧了全球的脆弱性。目前的证据表明,并非所有经常被烧毁的地区都是主要的排放源。考虑到气候变化对火灾风险的影响,将火灾排除用于减排可能会进一步淡化火灾在碳储存、生态过程和土地使用火灾需求中的作用,增加对 "隐蔽性用火方式 "的依赖,并加剧超过灭火能力的大型火灾事件。全球复杂的火灾活动表明,需要采取适应性、参与性、多层次、多中心的治理方法。
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引用次数: 0
Agricultural resilience: Impact of extreme weather events on the adoption of rural insurance in Brazil 农业复原力:极端天气事件对巴西采用农村保险的影响
IF 8.6 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102938
Elizângela Aparecida dos Santos , Elena Beatriz Piedra-Bonilla , Gabriela Madureira Barroso , Jordão Vieira Silva , Seyede Parvin Hejazirad , José Barbosa dos Santos
Brazil’s agricultural, livestock, and forestry production is essential, feeding more than 10% of the global population. However, climate change and extremes affect quality and production, challenging the Sustainable Development Goals of eradicating hunger and poverty. Extreme weather events generate economic and social costs, driving the use of adaptation strategies, with rural insurance being one of the main instruments to manage these risks. This study analyzes the impact of extreme weather events on rural insurance contracting in Brazil, using daily precipitation and temperature data to calculate extreme weather indices and perform panel regressions. The analysis of Minimum Comparable Areas (MCAs) between 2006 and 2016 showed that events such as “Frost” and “Hot Days” significantly increased insurance contracting, especially in the South and Central-West regions. The results highlight the importance of extreme variables and the need to consider regional differences and insurance alternatives. Despite the importance of insurance, increasing financial unviability suggests the need for additional strategies, such as crop diversification, community solidarity, and conservation of agricultural practices.
巴西的农业、畜牧业和林业生产至关重要,养活了全球 10%以上的人口。然而,气候变化和极端天气影响了质量和产量,给消除饥饿和贫困的可持续发展目标带来了挑战。极端天气事件造成了经济和社会成本,推动了适应战略的使用,而农村保险则是管理这些风险的主要手段之一。本研究利用每日降水和气温数据计算极端天气指数并进行面板回归,分析了极端天气事件对巴西农村保险签约的影响。对 2006 年至 2016 年间最小可比区(MCA)的分析表明,"霜冻 "和 "高温日 "等事件显著增加了保险签约,尤其是在南部和中西部地区。结果凸显了极端变量的重要性,以及考虑地区差异和保险替代方案的必要性。尽管保险很重要,但越来越多的财务不可行性表明,需要采取额外的战略,如作物多样化、社区团结和农业实践保护。
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引用次数: 0
Does Climate Change Exacerbate Gender Inequality in Cognitive Performance? 气候变化会加剧认知能力方面的性别不平等吗?
IF 8.6 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102941
Huan Chen , Yanni Yu
While a considerable amount of research has been conducted on the cognitive effects of climate change, relatively less attention has been given to gender disparities in these effects. This paper utilizes nationally representative data from China to explore how climate change influences cognitive performance across genders. Our findings suggest that women demonstrate a notably stronger capacity to adapt to elevated temperatures. Mechanism analysis reveals that women’s superior adaptation is primarily evident in memory and application skills rather than in comprehension. Moreover, sleep quality and mental health are identified as indirect contributors to these gender differences. Further demographic analysis shows that disparities in the impact of temperature on cognitive performance are more pronounced in urban settings, poorer households, among the elderly, and in colder counties, compared to rural areas, affluent households, younger adults, and warmer counties.
关于气候变化对认知的影响已有大量研究,但对这些影响中的性别差异的关注相对较少。本文利用中国具有全国代表性的数据,探讨气候变化如何影响不同性别的认知表现。我们的研究结果表明,女性对温度升高的适应能力明显更强。机理分析表明,女性的超强适应能力主要体现在记忆和应用技能上,而不是理解能力上。此外,睡眠质量和心理健康也是造成这些性别差异的间接因素。进一步的人口分析表明,与农村地区、富裕家庭、年轻成年人和较温暖的县城相比,温度对认知能力影响的差异在城市环境、贫困家庭、老年人和较寒冷的县城更为明显。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring the contribution of nature-based solutions beyond climate adaptation in cities 衡量基于自然的解决方案在城市气候适应之外的贡献
IF 8.6 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102939
Sean Goodwin , Marta Olazabal , Antonio J. Castro , Unai Pascual
Measuring the contribution of urban nature-based solutions (NbS) to climate change adaptation is an essential, though complex, step towards understanding who benefits from them, as well as when, where, how and why. However, urban NbS are also framed as being able to meet multiple objectives relating to biodiversity conservation as well as associated social challenges. The complexity of addressing multiple challenges, combined with conflicting visions of what climate adaptation means at the local level, further burdens the identification of clear and relevant goals, processes and information to track progress (i.e. contributions) towards urban adaptation. To explore and question how current on-the-ground practices address this complexity, we analysed a global dataset of indicators (n = 750 indicators) from 74 NbS projects in 61 cities across 40 countries based on an assessment of the literature regarding information and processes used for evaluating urban NbS for adaptation. This was combined with interviews with local actors who evaluate these NbS projects (n = 15). Our results indicate that current urban NbS projects do not appear to balance climate adaptation with other goals, nor do they uniformly conform to prevailing technical standards of quality of traditional monitoring, evaluation and learning processes. Currently NbS projects tend to primarily prioritise shorter-term high-quality ecological indicators, mostly related to biodiversity, while generally other longer-term social and technical indicators lack quality despite capturing a diversity of potential medium- to long-term contributions of NbS. Various political and social factors that influence the way urban NbS to adaptation are evaluated typically go beyond evaluation purposes and range from using indicators to promote NbS as cost-effective solutions or particular political agendas. The diversity of what makes good information and processes to measure contributions to urban adaptation bolsters calls for establishing processes for flexible, commonly agreed-upon guiding principles. We suggest locally grounded recommendations to help identify fit-for-purpose information and processes to evaluate the potential of urban NbS to address interconnected climate, biodiversity, and societal challenges.
衡量城市自然解决方案(NbS)对适应气候变化的贡献是了解谁从中受益以及何时、何地、如何和为何受益的重要一步,尽管这一步非常复杂。然而,城市自然解决方案也被认为能够满足与生物多样性保护相关的多重目标以及相关的社会挑战。应对多重挑战的复杂性,再加上对气候适应在地方层面的意义的不同看法,进一步加重了确定明确的相关目标、流程和信息以跟踪城市适应进展(即贡献)的负担。为了探索和质疑当前的实地实践如何解决这一复杂问题,我们分析了全球指标数据集(n = 750 个指标),这些指标来自 40 个国家 61 个城市的 74 个国家适应性试点项目,并基于对用于评估城市国家适应性试点项目的信息和流程的文献评估。此外,我们还采访了评估这些NbS项目的当地参与者(n = 15)。我们的结果表明,目前的城市非营利性社会项目似乎并没有平衡气候适应与其他目标,也没有统一符合传统监测、评估和学习过程质量的普遍技术标准。目前,净减排项目倾向于优先考虑较短期的高质量生态指标,主要是与生物多样性相关的指标,而其他较长期的社会和技术指标一般都缺乏质量,尽管它们捕捉到了净减排潜在的中长期贡献的多样性。影响城市非核心资源适应评估方式的各种政治和社会因素通常超出了评估目的,包括利用指标将非核心资源作为具有成本效益的解决方案或特定政治议程进行推广。由于衡量城市适应贡献的信息和流程多种多样,因此需要制定灵活、共同认可的指导原则。我们提出了一些立足于本地的建议,以帮助确定符合目的的信息和流程,从而评估城市非传统服务在应对相互关联的气候、生物多样性和社会挑战方面的潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Linking production, processing, and consumption of plant-based protein alternatives in Europe 将欧洲植物蛋白替代品的生产、加工和消费联系起来
IF 8.6 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102940
Catharina J.E. Schulp , Ciska Ulug , Anne Elise Stratton , Tim G. Williams , Peter H. Verburg
To confront current sustainability challenges, the European Commission aims to transition towards plant-based diets as well as shorter, regionalized value chains. Legume-based meat and dairy alternatives (LBAs) are seen as an important tool in the food system transition, replacing protein from animals with high-protein plant-based sources. However, regionalized LBA value chains require the co-occurrence of legume producers, LBA manufacturers, and consumers, and we lack understanding of the current status and future potential for such value chains in Europe. In this article, we integrate publicly-available datasets with a web-derived inventory of LBA manufacturer locations to map the regional strength of LBA value chains across Europe. Using manufacturers’ visions and employee interviews, we complement the spatial analysis with an exploratory assessment of how actors perceive their role in a plant-based food system transition.
Regions in north-western Europe demonstrate (moderately) strong value chains for regionalized LBAs, yet few regions contain all three value chain nodes. The absence of LBA manufacturers is the most widespread barrier for more regional value chains (particularly in Eastern Europe), suggesting a need for infrastructure and policies that incentivize innovation in the value chain and new connections between legume producers, processors, LBA manufacturers, and consumers. LBA manufacturers in our sample express diverse values and therefore could play complementary roles in sustainability transitions. However, global manufacturers are markedly less likely to have visions related to systemic change. Together, our results showcase the potential to expand regionalized LBA value chains to improve sustainability throughout the EU, but regionalisation may not be possible everywhere, highlighting the need for a cross-scale and context-specific approach to plant-based protein transitions.
为应对当前的可持续性挑战,欧盟委员会的目标是向植物性饮食以及更短、区域化的价值链过渡。以豆类为基础的肉类和乳制品替代品(LBAs)被视为食品系统转型的重要工具,可以用高蛋白植物来源替代动物蛋白质。然而,区域化的豆类肉类和乳制品价值链需要豆类生产商、豆类肉类和乳制品生产商以及消费者的共同参与,而我们对欧洲此类价值链的现状和未来潜力缺乏了解。在本文中,我们整合了公开数据集和从网络上获取的豆类生产商位置清单,以绘制欧洲豆类价值链的区域优势图。利用制造商的愿景和员工访谈,我们对参与者如何看待他们在植物性食品系统转型中的角色进行了探索性评估,从而对空间分析进行了补充。缺乏 LBA 生产商是更多区域价值链(尤其是在东欧)面临的最普遍障碍,这表明需要基础设施和政策来激励价值链创新,并在豆类生产商、加工商、LBA 生产商和消费者之间建立新的联系。在我们的样本中,LBA 生产商表达了不同的价值观,因此可以在可持续性转型中发挥互补作用。然而,全球生产商明显不太可能具有与系统性变革相关的愿景。总之,我们的研究结果展示了扩大区域化 LBA 价值链的潜力,以改善整个欧盟的可持续性,但区域化不一定在所有地方都能实现,这凸显了对植物性蛋白质转型采取跨规模、针对具体情况的方法的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
Unequally distributed education impacts of ecosystem degradation: Evidence from an invasive species 生态系统退化对教育的影响分布不均:来自入侵物种的证据
IF 8.6 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102942
Alberto Garcia , Michelle Lee
Ecosystem degradation can have substantial social and economic costs, which may vary across groups in society. In this paper, we leverage variation from the introduction of the emerald ash borer beetle to explore how invasive species-induced declines in environmental quality impact education outcomes in a metropolitan setting. Exploiting the idiosyncratic and staggered spread of the ash borer throughout the Chicago Metropolitan Region from 2006 to 2014, we show that infestation led to declines in tree cover and subsequently, education outcomes. Our findings indicate that ash borer infestation reduced canopy cover in affected areas, stemming from both increased tree cover loss and declines in tree cover gain. Further, the ash borer reduced standardized test performance at exposed schools. Infestation exposure led to an average of 1 percentage point (1.22%) fewer students that met or exceeded the state’s testing benchmark at the typical school. While exposure to ash borer infestation was lower around low-income schools, education impacts were concentrated almost entirely among low-income students. This work adds to our understanding of the environmental drivers of education outcomes and the unequally distributed impacts of human-induced environmental change.
生态系统退化会造成巨大的社会和经济损失,这些损失可能因社会群体而异。在本文中,我们利用引入白蜡螟甲虫所带来的变化,探讨入侵物种引起的环境质量下降如何影响大都市的教育成果。我们利用白蜡虫从 2006 年到 2014 年在整个芝加哥大都会地区交错蔓延的特异性,表明虫害导致树木覆盖率下降,进而影响教育成果。我们的研究结果表明,白蜡蛀虫的侵袭降低了受影响地区的树冠覆盖率,这既源于树木覆盖率损失的增加,也源于树木覆盖率增加的减少。此外,白蜡螟还降低了受影响学校的标准化考试成绩。受虫害影响的典型学校达到或超过州测试基准的学生平均减少了 1 个百分点(1.22%)。虽然低收入学校周围的白蜡虫虫害风险较低,但对教育的影响几乎完全集中在低收入学生身上。这项研究加深了我们对教育成果的环境驱动因素以及人类引起的环境变化造成的分布不均的影响的理解。
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引用次数: 0
Indigenous women are the “guardians of Pachamama”: Territorial sovereignty is indispensable for just climate change adaptations in Peru 土著妇女是 "Pachamama 的守护者":领土主权是秘鲁公正适应气候变化的必要条件
IF 8.6 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102934
Holly Moulton
Transformative climate change adaptation planning that addresses marginalized populations is increasingly critical for the globe’s most vulnerable countries. In 2021, Peru became the first country in Latin America to incorporate both gender and an Indigenous peoples’ platform (PPICC) into its national climate change adaptation plan. Peru has simultaneously increased its mining production of critical minerals like copper to address the global push to mitigate climate change through the green energy transition. The dissonance between equity-focused adaptation planning and extraction that occurs largely in Indigenous territories is understudied in the adaptation literature. This is especially pertinent for Indigenous women, whose embodied connection to territory is doubly disrupted by climate change and extractive activities. This paper uses the case study of national adaptation planning in Peru to analyze the tension between adaptation that addresses Indigeneity and gender and the increased “extraction imperative” to mitigate climate change through green technology. Based on a thematic analysis of Indigenous women’s organizations’ speeches, interviews, and policy recommendations—as well as planning documents from the Peruvian state and multilaterals—I show that Indigenous women leaders in Peru are drawing on embodied claims to territory and resistance to extraction to re-make adaptation planning into a space that centers Indigenous sovereignty. Ultimately, the Peruvian state’s vision of adaptation fails to account for ongoing sources of violence against Indigenous women, such as mining, that undermine adaptive capacity. I conclude that efforts to mainstream gender and Indigeneity into adaptation planning must foreground sovereignty to avoid maladaptive outcomes from extraction.
对于全球最脆弱的国家而言,针对边缘化人群的变革性气候变化适应规划日益重要。2021 年,秘鲁成为拉丁美洲第一个将性别平等和土著人民平台(PPICC)纳入其国家气候变化适应计划的国家。与此同时,秘鲁还增加了铜等重要矿产的开采量,以应对全球通过绿色能源转型来减缓气候变化的趋势。注重公平的适应规划与主要发生在土著领地的开采之间的不协调在适应文献中未得到充分研究。这对土著妇女尤为重要,因为气候变化和采掘活动双重破坏了她们与领地的联系。本文通过对秘鲁国家适应规划的案例研究,分析了解决土著性和性别问题的适应规划与通过绿色技术减缓气候变化的日益增长的 "采掘需求 "之间的矛盾。基于对土著妇女组织的演讲、访谈和政策建议--以及秘鲁政府和多边机构的规划文件--的专题分析,我表明秘鲁的土著妇女领袖正在利用对领土的体现性诉求和对开采的抵制,将适应规划重新塑造成一个以土著主权为中心的空间。归根结底,秘鲁政府的适应愿景未能考虑到当前针对土著妇女的暴力来源,如采矿,这些暴力破坏了土著妇女的适应能力。我的结论是,将性别和原住民性纳入适应规划主流的努力必须将主权放在首位,以避免开采造成的不良适应结果。
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引用次数: 0
The role of rural circular migration in shaping weather risk management for smallholder farmers in India, Nepal, and Bangladesh 农村循环迁移在影响印度、尼泊尔和孟加拉国小农天气风险管理中的作用
IF 8.6 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102937
Divya Solomon , Asif Ishtiaque , Arun Agarwal , Joshua M. Gray , Maria Carmen Lemos , Ignatius Moben , Balwinder Singh , Meha Jain
Circular migration, defined as migration where migrants return to their original home area, has become an increasingly important component of rural livelihoods and can significantly impact the risk management strategies of smallholder agricultural households in the face of climate change. To unpack the associations between climate change, migration decisions, and agricultural outcomes for smallholder agricultural households, we use an embedded mixed methods approach that uses quantitative data from a structured household survey from over 2,000 rural households in Nepal, India, and Bangladesh, along with qualitative data from interviews and focus group discussions. We use these data to identify the influence of socio-economic, climate, and weather factors on long (≥12 months) and short-term (<12 months) migration decisions and the impacts of migration on risk management strategies in agriculture. Our research shows that the drivers and effects of migration differ based on migration characteristics, including the length of time a family member migrates and whether the destination is domestic or international. We find that households with limited resources, such as constrained irrigation access, use short-term migration to cope with weather variability, whereas long-term migration is generally undertaken by wealthier households motivated to improve long-term economic outcomes. Considering the impacts of migration on risk management, we find that short-term migration of household members results in increased investment in agriculture, such as increasing inputs and adopting new varieties. In contrast, long-term and international migration is associated with disinvestments in agriculture, such as reduced cropped area and inputs. Our results highlight the importance of migration in shaping agricultural management practices amidst the challenges of climate change.
循环迁移是指移民返回原籍地的迁移,它已成为农村生计中一个日益重要的组成部分,并可能对小农家庭在气候变化面前的风险管理战略产生重大影响。为了揭示气候变化、移民决策和小农家庭农业成果之间的关联,我们采用了一种嵌入式混合方法,使用了来自尼泊尔、印度和孟加拉国 2000 多个农村家庭的结构化家庭调查的定量数据,以及来自访谈和焦点小组讨论的定性数据。我们利用这些数据来确定社会经济、气候和天气因素对长期(≥12 个月)和短期(<12 个月)迁移决策的影响,以及迁移对农业风险管理战略的影响。我们的研究表明,移徙的驱动因素和影响因移徙特征而异,包括家庭成员移徙的时间长短以及目的地是国内还是国际。我们发现,资源有限的家庭,如灌溉条件有限的家庭,会利用短期移民来应对天气变化,而长期移民一般由较富裕的家庭进行,其动机是改善长期经济成果。考虑到移徙对风险管理的影响,我们发现家庭成员的短期移徙会增加对农业的投资,如增加投入和采用新品种。相比之下,长期移民和国际移民则会导致农业投资减少,如减少种植面积和投入。我们的研究结果凸显了移民在气候变化挑战下影响农业管理实践的重要性。
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Global Environmental Change
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