Global Environmental Change最新文献_第2页

Enhancing climate resilience of global dryland maize to cope with future 50-year climate warming 提高全球旱地玉米气候适应能力，应对未来50年气候变暖

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103088

Jing Wang , Bao-Zhong Wang , Fei Mo , Yinglong Chen , Mohammad Ashraf , Yang Wang , Jian-Ming Li , Hai-Xia Duan , Yajie Song , Levis Kavagi , Hong-Yan Tao , You-Cai Xiong

It is crucial to enhance climate resilience of global dryland maize to cope with future 50-year warming scenarios (2030–2079), including SSP2-4.5 (medium emission) and SSP5-8.5 (high emission). We first calibrated and validated the AquaCrop model using observational data of field production with plastic film mulching (water-saving) and without mulching (CK) across 2019 and 2020. Subsequently, we used the validated AquaCrop model to simulate and predict maize biomass and seed yield based on different sowing dates and mulching patterns, employing historical climate data (1995–2019) and projected data under future climate scenarios. The results indicated that, relative to historical period, biomass and seed yields would decline by 5.9 % and 16.5 % under CK, but increase by 22.2 % and 21.0 % under plastic film mulching over the next 50 years under global warming, respectively. The stability and sustainability index of biomass yield would decline in CK, yet significantly increase under mulching. Seed yield would decline from SSP2-4.5 to SSP5-8.5, while biomass yield would elevate significantly. Relative to historical period, under plastic film mulching, optimal planting date window (OPDW) for seed production would be averagely extended by 2.8 days under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, which is significantly shorter than the averagely extended OPDW for biomass production under future climate scenarios (7.6 days). Mulching strategy enables crops to better adapt to severe fluctuations of precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation than CK. Therefore, biomass-led, rather than seed-led, mulching production strategy promises future climate resilience and sustainability of global dryland maize, particularly under high emission scenario.

提高全球旱地玉米应对未来50年气候变暖情景（2030-2079）的气候适应能力至关重要，包括SSP2-4.5（中等排放）和SSP5-8.5（高排放）。我们首先使用2019年和2020年覆盖地膜（节水）和不覆盖地膜（CK）的田间生产观测数据对AquaCrop模型进行了校准和验证。随后，我们使用经过验证的AquaCrop模型，利用1995-2019年的历史气候数据和未来气候情景下的预测数据，对不同播种日期和覆盖方式的玉米生物量和种子产量进行了模拟和预测。结果表明：在全球变暖的背景下，未来50 a，对照历史时期，CK处理的生物量和种子产量将分别下降5.9%和16.5%，而地膜覆盖将分别增加22.2%和21.0%。生物量产量的稳定性和可持续性指数在对照处理下呈下降趋势，在覆盖条件下呈显著上升趋势。种子产量从SSP2-4.5下降到SSP5-8.5，生物量产量显著提高。与历史时期相比，在地膜覆盖下，SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下，种子生产的最佳种植日期窗（OPDW）平均延长了2.8 d，显著短于未来气候情景下生物质生产的最佳种植日期窗（OPDW）的平均延长（7.6 d）。覆盖策略使作物比CK能更好地适应降水、温度和太阳辐射的剧烈波动。因此，生物量主导而非种子主导的覆膜生产战略保证了全球旱地玉米未来的气候适应能力和可持续性，特别是在高排放情景下。

{"title":"Enhancing climate resilience of global dryland maize to cope with future 50-year climate warming","authors":"Jing Wang , Bao-Zhong Wang , Fei Mo , Yinglong Chen , Mohammad Ashraf , Yang Wang , Jian-Ming Li , Hai-Xia Duan , Yajie Song , Levis Kavagi , Hong-Yan Tao , You-Cai Xiong","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103088","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103088","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>It is crucial to enhance climate resilience of global dryland maize to cope with future 50-year warming scenarios (2030–2079), including SSP2-4.5 (medium emission) and SSP5-8.5 (high emission). We first calibrated and validated the AquaCrop model using observational data of field production with plastic film mulching (water-saving) and without mulching (CK) across 2019 and 2020. Subsequently, we used the validated AquaCrop model to simulate and predict maize biomass and seed yield based on different sowing dates and mulching patterns, employing historical climate data (1995–2019) and projected data under future climate scenarios. The results indicated that, relative to historical period, biomass and seed yields would decline by 5.9 % and 16.5 % under CK, but increase by 22.2 % and 21.0 % under plastic film mulching over the next 50 years under global warming, respectively. The stability and sustainability index of biomass yield would decline in CK, yet significantly increase under mulching. Seed yield would decline from SSP2-4.5 to SSP5-8.5, while biomass yield would elevate significantly. Relative to historical period, under plastic film mulching, optimal planting date window (OPDW) for seed production would be averagely extended by 2.8 days under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, which is significantly shorter than the averagely extended OPDW for biomass production under future climate scenarios (7.6 days). Mulching strategy enables crops to better adapt to severe fluctuations of precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation than CK. Therefore, biomass-led, rather than seed-led, mulching production strategy promises future climate resilience and sustainability of global dryland maize, particularly under high emission scenario.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 103088"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145697411","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Advancing national Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs): A novel procedure applied to develop current Swiss SSPs 推进国家共享社会经济路径（ssp）：一种应用于开发当前瑞士ssp的新程序

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103105

Pascal Tschumi, Irmi Seidl, Marco Pütz, Lena Gubler

Socioeconomic scenarios have become an important instrument for addressing present and potential future environmental challenges. Some of the most widely used socioeconomic scenarios are the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which were published in 2015 and have been extended to several geographical scales and sectors. Nonetheless, there are several needs for more useful and relevant SSPs. This article presents a novel procedure for developing national SSPs that addresses some of these needs, showing how it applies to Switzerland. The novelty of our procedure is the application of a composition-based scenario development approach (composing new scenarios from scratch) and to combine it with a derivation-based approach (deriving scenarios from existing ones by enriching them with, for example, national specificities) to develop national SSPs. Furthermore, the procedure fulfils three quality requirements for qualitative scenario development—interdisciplinarity, participation, and iterative quality controls—and meets three recommendations for more useful and relevant SSPs—developing SSP variants that are not covered by global SSPs, getting SSPs up to date, and enriching SSPs with perspectives from different societal groups to improve the inclusiveness of scenarios. We develop national SSPs for Switzerland (SSPs-CH) from scratch, incorporating these requirements and recommendations. Our procedure results in a new SSP variant (SSP0-CH: Frugal Switzerland), an altered SSP5 (SSP5-CH: Resource-Intensive Switzerland), and three SSP-CH scenarios that can easily be compared with global scenarios (SSP1, SSP3, and SSP4). No SSP-CH correlates with global SSP2. The process we developed uniquely combines different approaches and methods, and it proves to be viable for providing comprehensive, up to date scenarios.

社会经济情景已成为解决当前和未来潜在环境挑战的重要工具。一些最广泛使用的社会经济情景是2015年发布的全球共享社会经济路径（ssp），并已扩展到多个地理尺度和部门。尽管如此，仍然需要一些更有用和相关的ssp。本文提出了一种开发国家ssp的新程序，以解决其中的一些需求，并展示了它如何适用于瑞士。我们程序的新颖之处在于应用了基于组合的场景开发方法（从零开始组合新场景），并将其与基于衍生的方法（通过丰富现有场景，例如，使用国家特殊性来衍生场景）相结合，以开发国家ssp。此外，该程序满足定性情景开发的三个质量要求——跨学科性、参与性和迭代质量控制——并满足三个更有用和相关的SSP建议——开发未被全球SSP覆盖的SSP变体，使SSP更新，用不同社会群体的观点丰富SSP，以提高情景的包容性。我们根据这些要求和建议，从零开始为瑞士制定国家ssp （ssp - ch）。我们的程序产生了一个新的SSP变体（SSP0-CH：节俭的瑞士），一个改变的SSP5 （SSP5- ch：资源密集型的瑞士），以及三个可以很容易地与全球情景（SSP1， SSP3和SSP4）进行比较的SSP- ch情景。SSP-CH与全局SSP2无相关性。我们开发的流程独特地结合了不同的方法和方法，并且证明它对于提供全面的、最新的场景是可行的。

{"title":"Advancing national Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs): A novel procedure applied to develop current Swiss SSPs","authors":"Pascal Tschumi, Irmi Seidl, Marco Pütz, Lena Gubler","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103105","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103105","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Socioeconomic scenarios have become an important instrument for addressing present and potential future environmental challenges. Some of the most widely used socioeconomic scenarios are the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which were published in 2015 and have been extended to several geographical scales and sectors. Nonetheless, there are several needs for more useful and relevant SSPs. This article presents a novel procedure for developing national SSPs that addresses some of these needs, showing how it applies to Switzerland. The novelty of our procedure is the application of a composition-based scenario development approach (composing new scenarios from scratch) and to combine it with a derivation-based approach (deriving scenarios from existing ones by enriching them with, for example, national specificities) to develop national SSPs. Furthermore, the procedure fulfils three quality requirements for qualitative scenario development—interdisciplinarity, participation, and iterative quality controls—and meets three recommendations for more useful and relevant SSPs—developing SSP variants that are not covered by global SSPs, getting SSPs up to date, and enriching SSPs with perspectives from different societal groups to improve the inclusiveness of scenarios. We develop national SSPs for Switzerland (SSPs-CH) from scratch, incorporating these requirements and recommendations. Our procedure results in a new SSP variant (SSP0-CH: Frugal Switzerland), an altered SSP5 (SSP5-CH: Resource-Intensive Switzerland), and three SSP-CH scenarios that can easily be compared with global scenarios (SSP1, SSP3, and SSP4). No SSP-CH correlates with global SSP2. The process we developed uniquely combines different approaches and methods, and it proves to be viable for providing comprehensive, up to date scenarios.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 103105"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145823261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Governance, the pillar of sustainability practices, accounting and reporting: Insights from state-owned enterprises in an emerging economy 治理，可持续发展实践的支柱，会计和报告：来自新兴经济体国有企业的见解

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103101

Adeyemi Adebayo, Barry Ackers

Sustainability is a term that encompasses environmental, social, governance, and economic factors. The contemporary academic discourse on sustainability, arguably made popular by the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, indicates that much attention has been paid to environmental, social, and economic factors and less to the governance factor. In this regard, we extend institutional and stakeholder theories by exploring the governance and sustainability practices of Schedule 2 and Schedule 3B state-owned enterprises in South Africa between 2018 and 2022. We used a survey questionnaire, content analysis, and semi-structured interviews. Overall, the sampled SOEs’ governance sustainability reporting is fair, according to the findings. Out of the four governance sustainability metrics that were taken into consideration, the highest reporting was found for sustainability reporting of the highest governance (59%), which was followed by managing impacts on the economy, environment, and people (31%), which came before relevance of sustainable development (25%), and lastly, sustainable development role of executives (24%). Interviewees provided insights on potential explanations for the content analysis and survey findings.

可持续发展是一个包含环境、社会、治理和经济因素的术语。当代关于可持续发展的学术论述，可以说是由联合国可持续发展目标引起的，表明人们对环境、社会和经济因素的关注较多，而对治理因素的关注较少。在这方面，我们通过探索2018年至2022年期间南非附表2和附表3B国有企业的治理和可持续性实践，扩展了制度和利益相关者理论。我们使用了调查问卷、内容分析和半结构化访谈。调查结果显示，总体而言，抽样国有企业的治理可持续性报告是公平的。在考虑的四个治理可持续性指标中，报告最高的是最高治理的可持续性报告（59%），其次是管理对经济、环境和人的影响（31%），其次是可持续发展的相关性（25%），最后是高管的可持续发展角色（24%）。受访者对内容分析和调查结果的潜在解释提供了见解。

{"title":"Governance, the pillar of sustainability practices, accounting and reporting: Insights from state-owned enterprises in an emerging economy","authors":"Adeyemi Adebayo, Barry Ackers","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103101","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103101","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Sustainability is a term that encompasses environmental, social, governance, and economic factors. The contemporary academic discourse on sustainability, arguably made popular by the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, indicates that much attention has been paid to environmental, social, and economic factors and less to the governance factor. In this regard, we extend institutional and stakeholder theories by exploring the governance and sustainability practices of Schedule 2 and Schedule 3B state-owned enterprises in South Africa between 2018 and 2022. We used a survey questionnaire, content analysis, and semi-structured interviews. Overall, the sampled SOEs’ governance sustainability reporting is fair, according to the findings. Out of the four governance sustainability metrics that were taken into consideration, the highest reporting was found for sustainability reporting of the highest governance (59%), which was followed by managing impacts on the economy, environment, and people (31%), which came before relevance of sustainable development (25%), and lastly, sustainable development role of executives (24%). Interviewees provided insights on potential explanations for the content analysis and survey findings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 103101"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145796217","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Perceived plasticity of climate-relevant behaviors and policy support among high- and lower-income individuals 高、低收入人群对气候相关行为和政策支持的感知可塑性

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103107

Kristian S. Nielsen , Fabian Dablander , Ramit Debnath , Charles A. Emogor , Sakshi Ghai , Wencke Gwozdz , Ulf J.J. Hahnel , Wilhelm Hofmann , Jan M. Bauer

Widespread behavior change is essential for mitigating climate change. This study explores how country and income differences are associated with the perceived likelihood of changing climate-relevant behaviors (referred to as perceived behavioral plasticity) and support for climate policies. Using an online survey (n = 4,003) from Denmark, India, Nigeria, and the United States – with 50 % of participants from the top 10 % income bracket – we reveal marked heterogeneity in the perceived plasticity of climate-friendly investment behaviors (e.g., purchasing an electric vehicle) and curtailment behaviors (e.g., reducing red meat consumption). Perceived behavioral plasticity was generally higher in India and Nigeria, though these differences should be interpreted cautiously, as response tendencies might have influenced perceptions and reporting of plasticity. While high-income participants reported greater perceived plasticity of certain investment behaviors and eating less red meat, the relationship between income and perceived plasticity differed substantially across behaviors and countries. We also found that higher perceived behavioral plasticity was related to greater support for domain-matched climate policies, and this relationship was stronger among high-income participants. Taken together, the results reveal substantial income- and country-level differences in perceived behavioral plasticity and show that individuals who perceive greater potential for change also express stronger support for corresponding climate policies. These findings underscore the interdependence between individual behavior and policy support and highlight both socioeconomic and psychological levers for designing more targeted and publicly supported climate initiatives.

广泛的行为改变对于减缓气候变化至关重要。本研究探讨了国家和收入差异与气候相关行为变化的感知可能性（称为感知行为可塑性）和对气候政策的支持之间的关系。通过一项来自丹麦、印度、尼日利亚和美国的在线调查（n = 4003），其中50%的参与者来自收入最高的10%的人群，我们揭示了气候友好型投资行为（如购买电动汽车）和削减行为（如减少红肉消费）在感知可塑性方面的显著异质性。感知到的行为可塑性在印度和尼日利亚普遍较高，尽管这些差异应该谨慎解释，因为反应倾向可能影响了感知和报告的可塑性。虽然高收入的参与者报告说，他们对某些投资行为的感知可塑性更强，吃的红肉也更少，但收入与感知可塑性之间的关系在不同的行为和国家之间存在很大差异。我们还发现，较高的感知行为可塑性与对领域匹配气候政策的更大支持有关，这种关系在高收入参与者中更为强烈。综上所述，研究结果揭示了收入和国家层面在感知行为可塑性方面的巨大差异，并表明那些感知到更大变化潜力的个人也对相应的气候政策表达了更强的支持。这些发现强调了个人行为与政策支持之间的相互依存关系，并强调了设计更有针对性和公众支持的气候倡议的社会经济和心理杠杆。

{"title":"Perceived plasticity of climate-relevant behaviors and policy support among high- and lower-income individuals","authors":"Kristian S. Nielsen , Fabian Dablander , Ramit Debnath , Charles A. Emogor , Sakshi Ghai , Wencke Gwozdz , Ulf J.J. Hahnel , Wilhelm Hofmann , Jan M. Bauer","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103107","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103107","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Widespread behavior change is essential for mitigating climate change. This study explores how country and income differences are associated with the perceived likelihood of changing climate-relevant behaviors (referred to as perceived behavioral plasticity) and support for climate policies. Using an online survey (<em>n</em> = 4,003) from Denmark, India, Nigeria, and the United States – with 50 % of participants from the top 10 % income bracket – we reveal marked heterogeneity in the perceived plasticity of climate-friendly investment behaviors (e.g., purchasing an electric vehicle) and curtailment behaviors (e.g., reducing red meat consumption). Perceived behavioral plasticity was generally higher in India and Nigeria, though these differences should be interpreted cautiously, as response tendencies might have influenced perceptions and reporting of plasticity. While high-income participants reported greater perceived plasticity of certain investment behaviors and eating less red meat, the relationship between income and perceived plasticity differed substantially across behaviors and countries. We also found that higher perceived behavioral plasticity was related to greater support for domain-matched climate policies, and this relationship was stronger among high-income participants. Taken together, the results reveal substantial income- and country-level differences in perceived behavioral plasticity and show that individuals who perceive greater potential for change also express stronger support for corresponding climate policies. These findings underscore the interdependence between individual behavior and policy support and highlight both socioeconomic and psychological levers for designing more targeted and publicly supported climate initiatives.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 103107"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145837471","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Who do we trust on climate change, and why? 在气候变化问题上，我们应该信任谁？为什么？

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103096

Sarah MacInnes , Matthew J. Hornsey , Christian Bretter , Samuel Pearson , Kelly S. Fielding , David Bersoff

Trust in climate communicators is a critical determinant of whether the public accepts and acts upon climate change information. Yet most research to date has focused on who is trusted, with less attention to why certain messengers are deemed trustworthy. Using survey data from 6479 participants across 13 countries, this study examines (1) which sources of climate information are trusted, (2) what features make a communicator trustworthy, and (3) how these judgments differ between climate change believers and skeptics. Scientists were the most trusted sources among climate believers, but overall, the most trusted sources are informal and identity-based: “friends and family” and “people like me.” Across the sample, trust was predicted not only by demographic variables but also by specific communicator features: most notably clarity, shared values, sincerity, and being respectful of opposing views. Believers and skeptics prioritized different features, underscoring that trust is not a universal response but shaped by ideological identity. These findings reveal the layered and audience-contingent nature of trust in climate communication. By identifying the features that drive trust across different audiences, this study offers practical guidance for communicators interested in tailoring messages and messengers to more effectively engage the public on climate action.

对气候传播者的信任是公众是否接受气候变化信息并据此采取行动的关键决定因素。然而，到目前为止，大多数研究都集中在谁是值得信任的，而很少关注为什么某些信使被认为是值得信任的。利用来自13个国家的6479名参与者的调查数据，本研究检验了(1)哪些气候信息来源是可信的，(2)哪些特征使传播者值得信赖，以及(3)气候变化信仰者和怀疑论者的这些判断有何不同。科学家是气候信仰者中最信任的消息来源，但总体而言，最受信任的消息来源是非正式的、基于身份的：“朋友和家人”以及“像我这样的人”。在整个样本中，信任不仅由人口统计变量预测，还由具体的沟通者特征预测：最明显的是清晰、共同的价值观、真诚和尊重反对意见。信仰者和怀疑论者优先考虑不同的特征，强调信任不是一种普遍的反应，而是由意识形态认同形成的。这些发现揭示了气候传播中信任的层次性和受众偶然性。通过确定推动不同受众之间信任的特征，本研究为有意定制信息和信使以更有效地吸引公众参与气候行动的传播者提供了实用指导。

{"title":"Who do we trust on climate change, and why?","authors":"Sarah MacInnes , Matthew J. Hornsey , Christian Bretter , Samuel Pearson , Kelly S. Fielding , David Bersoff","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103096","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103096","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Trust in climate communicators is a critical determinant of whether the public accepts and acts upon climate change information. Yet most research to date has focused on who is trusted, with less attention to why certain messengers are deemed trustworthy. Using survey data from 6479 participants across 13 countries, this study examines (1) which sources of climate information are trusted, (2) what features make a communicator trustworthy, and (3) how these judgments differ between climate change believers and skeptics. Scientists were the most trusted sources among climate believers, but overall, the most trusted sources are informal and identity-based: “friends and family” and “people like me.” Across the sample, trust was predicted not only by demographic variables but also by specific communicator features: most notably clarity, shared values, sincerity, and being respectful of opposing views. Believers and skeptics prioritized different features, underscoring that trust is not a universal response but shaped by ideological identity. These findings reveal the layered and audience-contingent nature of trust in climate communication. By identifying the features that drive trust across different audiences, this study offers practical guidance for communicators interested in tailoring messages and messengers to more effectively engage the public on climate action.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 103096"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145785164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Economic incentives and lifestyle drivers: how they shape consumers' engagement in repairing energy-using consumer goods and their environmental impacts in Japan 经济激励和生活方式驱动因素：它们如何影响日本消费者对维修耗能消费品的参与及其对环境的影响

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103102

Darius Corbier , Hazel Pettifor , Maureen Agnew , Nicolas Schlegel

Japan’s Reduce-Reuse-Recycle policies reduced municipal waste, but since 2010, progress has slowed, and primary resource use remains high. ‘Repair’ policies can address this by extending product lifetimes, reducing new acquisitions and disposal, and limiting waste creation. We explore the effectiveness of different price signals in incentivising energy-using goods repair. We also investigate how lifestyles and income influence the impact of price signals. Furthermore, we assess the environmental impacts of these price signals. We apply a dynamic general equilibrium model combining material-flow analysis with a lifestyle model to two policy scenarios: (1) a repair bonus, and (2) higher Extended Producer responsibility fees, each under different repair barriers and heterogeneous lifestyle drivers. We find that, under low barriers, lowering repair costs could double repair rates, resulting in a 12 Mt/year decrease in waste by 2050, when we strengthen low-carbon cognitions in high-income groups, who constitute the largest portion of the population and are most likely to engage intentionally in ‘Repair’. High barriers to repair can reduce these gains by two-thirds. Low-income groups tend to respond more to price signals driven by their need to save money. Lower energy efficiency of repaired goods raises use-phase CO2 emissions, partly offsetting reductions in manufacturing/incineration, implying a trade-off between circular economy and climate mitigation goals. Raising EPR fees encourages sharing and ‘Refuse’, resulting in smaller waste generation and CO2 emissions. We highlight the importance of aligning price signals with measures that reduce barriers, addressing trade-offs, and implementing targeted awareness campaigns to achieve a sustainable circular economy.

日本的“减少-再利用-再循环”政策减少了城市垃圾，但自2010年以来，进展放缓，初级资源使用率仍然很高。“维修”政策可以通过延长产品寿命、减少新收购和处置以及限制废物产生来解决这一问题。我们探讨了不同价格信号在激励耗能商品维修中的有效性。我们还研究了生活方式和收入如何影响价格信号的影响。此外，我们评估了这些价格信号对环境的影响。我们将物料流分析与生活方式模型相结合的动态一般均衡模型应用于两种政策情景：(1)维修奖金，(2)更高的延伸生产者责任费，每种政策情景都存在不同的维修壁垒和不同的生活方式驱动因素。我们发现，在低门槛的情况下，降低维修成本可以使维修率翻倍，到2050年，当我们加强高收入群体的低碳认知时，每年的废物减少1200万吨，高收入群体占人口的最大比例，最有可能有意参与“维修”。高的修复壁垒会使这些收益减少三分之二。低收入群体往往更容易对价格信号做出反应，因为他们需要省钱。修理后的商品能源效率降低，增加了使用阶段的二氧化碳排放，部分抵消了制造/焚烧的减少，这意味着循环经济与减缓气候变化目标之间的权衡。提高EPR费用鼓励共享和“垃圾”，从而减少废物产生和二氧化碳排放。我们强调将价格信号与减少壁垒的措施相结合的重要性，解决权衡问题，并开展有针对性的宣传活动，以实现可持续的循环经济。

{"title":"Economic incentives and lifestyle drivers: how they shape consumers' engagement in repairing energy-using consumer goods and their environmental impacts in Japan","authors":"Darius Corbier , Hazel Pettifor , Maureen Agnew , Nicolas Schlegel","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103102","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103102","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Japan’s Reduce-Reuse-Recycle policies reduced municipal waste, but since 2010, progress has slowed, and primary resource use remains high. ‘Repair’ policies can address this by extending product lifetimes, reducing new acquisitions and disposal, and limiting waste creation. We explore the effectiveness of different price signals in incentivising energy-using goods repair. We also investigate how lifestyles and income influence the impact of price signals. Furthermore, we assess the environmental impacts of these price signals. We apply a dynamic general equilibrium model combining material-flow analysis with a lifestyle model to two policy scenarios: (1) a repair bonus, and (2) higher Extended Producer responsibility fees, each under different repair barriers and heterogeneous lifestyle drivers. We find that, under low barriers, lowering repair costs could double repair rates, resulting in a 12 Mt/year decrease in waste by 2050, when we strengthen low-carbon cognitions in high-income groups, who constitute the largest portion of the population and are most likely to engage intentionally in ‘Repair’. High barriers to repair can reduce these gains by two-thirds. Low-income groups tend to respond more to price signals driven by their need to save money. Lower energy efficiency of repaired goods raises use-phase CO2 emissions, partly offsetting reductions in manufacturing/incineration, implying a trade-off between circular economy and climate mitigation goals. Raising EPR fees encourages sharing and ‘Refuse’, resulting in smaller waste generation and CO2 emissions. We highlight the importance of aligning price signals with measures that reduce barriers, addressing trade-offs, and implementing targeted awareness campaigns to achieve a sustainable circular economy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 103102"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145837472","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Doubling of flood-induced bridge asset failure loss in Mozambique under 2050 climate 2050年气候条件下，莫桑比克洪水引起的桥梁资产损失将翻一番

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103103

Yaning Qiao , Yaru Guo , Sebastian Rowan , Ricardo Medina , Xavier Espinet , Jonathan Cullen , Fanran Meng , Zhi Cao

Mozambique, often impacted by severe flooding, faces challenges with its bridge networks, particularly due to climate change. Existing methods for evaluating flood-induced bridge asset failure loss lack a comprehensive national level risk assessment that includes a full spectrum of flood events and bridge-specific details. We introduce a new framework that quantifies flood-induced bridge failure loss nationally, incorporating climate change using an equivalent flood return period approach. This framework provides a continuous risk analysis, addressing the shortcomings of discrete flood return periods. Our analysis of 1,210 bridges in Mozambique indicates an annual expected values of bridge asset failure losses equivalent to 0.6 % of its 2021 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), or 83 million dollars. Under a high emission scenario, this loss could increase to 162 million dollars by 2050. The findings highlight the vulnerability of Mozambique’s bridges to floods with return periods of 500 to 1000 years, suggesting the need for revisions of bridge design codes. The framework’s utility extends beyond Mozambique; Other Global South countries can apply it to assess their bridge asset failure risks and strategically enhance bridge resilience. This method improves infrastructure management by identifying high-risk areas and justifying resource allocation for adaptation, enabling proactive responses to flood-induced challenges and enhancing climate resilience.

莫桑比克经常受到严重洪水的影响，其桥梁网络面临挑战，特别是由于气候变化。现有的评估洪水引起的桥梁资产破坏损失的方法缺乏全面的国家层面的风险评估，包括洪水事件的全部范围和桥梁的具体细节。我们引入了一个新的框架，在全国范围内量化洪水引起的桥梁破坏损失，并使用等效洪水重现期方法纳入气候变化。该框架提供了一个连续的风险分析，解决了离散洪水回归期的缺点。我们对莫桑比克1210座桥梁的分析表明，桥梁资产失效损失的年预期价值相当于其2021年国内生产总值（GDP）的0.6%，即8300万美元。在高排放情景下，到2050年，这一损失可能增加到1.62亿美元。研究结果强调了莫桑比克桥梁在500年到1000年的洪水面前的脆弱性，这表明需要修订桥梁设计规范。该框架的效用超出了莫桑比克；其他全球南方国家可以将其应用于评估其桥梁资产失效风险，并从战略上增强桥梁弹性。该方法通过识别高风险地区、合理分配适应资源、主动应对洪水引发的挑战和增强气候适应能力，改善了基础设施管理。

{"title":"Doubling of flood-induced bridge asset failure loss in Mozambique under 2050 climate","authors":"Yaning Qiao , Yaru Guo , Sebastian Rowan , Ricardo Medina , Xavier Espinet , Jonathan Cullen , Fanran Meng , Zhi Cao","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103103","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103103","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mozambique, often impacted by severe flooding, faces challenges with its bridge networks, particularly due to climate change. Existing methods for evaluating flood-induced bridge asset failure loss lack a comprehensive national level risk assessment that includes a full spectrum of flood events and bridge-specific details. We introduce a new framework that quantifies flood-induced bridge failure loss nationally, incorporating climate change using an equivalent flood return period approach. This framework provides a continuous risk analysis, addressing the shortcomings of discrete flood return periods. Our analysis of 1,210 bridges in Mozambique indicates an annual expected values of bridge asset failure losses equivalent to 0.6 % of its 2021 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), or 83 million dollars. Under a high emission scenario, this loss could increase to 162 million dollars by 2050. The findings highlight the vulnerability of Mozambique’s bridges to floods with return periods of 500 to 1000 years, suggesting the need for revisions of bridge design codes. The framework’s utility extends beyond Mozambique; Other Global South countries can apply it to assess their bridge asset failure risks and strategically enhance bridge resilience. This method improves infrastructure management by identifying high-risk areas and justifying resource allocation for adaptation, enabling proactive responses to flood-induced challenges and enhancing climate resilience.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 103103"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145796216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Combined benefits of multi-hazard early warnings on human mobility resilience to tropical cyclones 多灾种预警对人类活动和热带气旋复原力的综合效益

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103111

Haiyan Liu , Jianghao Wang , Zhifeng Cheng , Siqin Wang , Laurence Hawker , Jiatong Han , Phil J. Ashworth , Steve Darby , Faith Ka Shun Chan , Jian Liu , Andrew J. Tatem , Shengjie Lai

Multi-hazard early-warning systems (MHEWS) are critical for mitigating extreme weather impacts and enhancing disaster resilience. However, quantitative empirical evidence on how different types of early warnings individually and collectively trigger preventive actions and influence resilience remains limited. Here, using location-based human mobility data aggregated from over 1.1 billion mobile devices across Chinese cities, we quantified daily intracity human mobility responses to 21,126 early warning signals during 19 tropical cyclones (TCs) from 2021 to 2023. To represent disaster resilience under MHEWS protection, we developed a protected resilience index that integrates both the magnitude of mobility changes and recovery durations. We found that, compared with city-level TC warnings alone, combined multi-level, multi-hazard warnings resulted in a 52.4 % reduction in mobility during TC exposure days, thereby increasing avoided direct population exposure by around 57.1 %. Each additional warning type further shortened recovery times, collectively reducing recovery durations by at least 55.6 %, with larger effects observed for stronger TCs. Under MHEWS protection, protected resilience remained statistically similar between moderate-intensity TCs (34 kt and 50 kt) but declined significantly under severe (≥64 kt) conditions. Although absolute reductions in exposure were greater in high-frequency, coastal, and wealthier cities, relative improvements from MHEWS were more pronounced in less frequently affected, inland, and socioeconomically disadvantaged areas. Consequently, MHEWS significantly narrowed resilience disparities among cities facing equivalent hazard exposures. This study introduces a scalable, behaviour-based framework for quantifying early-warning effectiveness, highlighting the essential role of integrated multi-level and multi-hazard warnings in disaster preparedness across cities amid escalating climate risks.

多灾种预警系统（MHEWS）对于减轻极端天气影响和增强抗灾能力至关重要。然而，关于不同类型的预警如何单独和集体地触发预防行动并影响复原力的定量经验证据仍然有限。本文利用来自中国城市11亿多台移动设备的基于位置的人类流动性数据，量化了2021年至2023年19个热带气旋（tc）期间对21126个预警信号的每日城市人口流动性响应。为了表示MHEWS保护下的灾害恢复能力，我们开发了一个综合了流动性变化幅度和恢复持续时间的受保护恢复能力指数。我们发现，与单独的城市级别的TC警告相比，多层、多危害的联合警告导致在TC暴露日期间的流动性减少52.4%，从而使避免的直接人口暴露增加约57.1%。每一种额外的预警类型都进一步缩短了恢复时间，总体上至少减少了55.6%的恢复持续时间，对更强的tc有更大的影响。在MHEWS保护下，中等强度tc （34 kt和50 kt）的保护弹性在统计学上保持相似，但在严重tc（≥64 kt）条件下，保护弹性显著下降。虽然在高频、沿海和较富裕的城市暴露的绝对减少更大，但在不太频繁受影响的内陆和社会经济不利地区，MHEWS的相对改善更为明显。因此，MHEWS显著缩小了面临同等灾害暴露的城市之间的复原力差异。本研究引入了一个可扩展的、基于行为的预警有效性量化框架，强调了在气候风险不断升级的情况下，综合多层次和多灾种预警在城市备灾中的重要作用。

{"title":"Combined benefits of multi-hazard early warnings on human mobility resilience to tropical cyclones","authors":"Haiyan Liu , Jianghao Wang , Zhifeng Cheng , Siqin Wang , Laurence Hawker , Jiatong Han , Phil J. Ashworth , Steve Darby , Faith Ka Shun Chan , Jian Liu , Andrew J. Tatem , Shengjie Lai","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103111","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103111","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Multi-hazard early-warning systems (MHEWS) are critical for mitigating extreme weather impacts and enhancing disaster resilience. However, quantitative empirical evidence on how different types of early warnings individually and collectively trigger preventive actions and influence resilience remains limited. Here, using location-based human mobility data aggregated from over 1.1 billion mobile devices across Chinese cities, we quantified daily intracity human mobility responses to 21,126 early warning signals during 19 tropical cyclones (TCs) from 2021 to 2023. To represent disaster resilience under MHEWS protection, we developed a protected resilience index that integrates both the magnitude of mobility changes and recovery durations. We found that, compared with city-level TC warnings alone, combined multi-level, multi-hazard warnings resulted in a 52.4 % reduction in mobility during TC exposure days, thereby increasing avoided direct population exposure by around 57.1 %. Each additional warning type further shortened recovery times, collectively reducing recovery durations by at least 55.6 %, with larger effects observed for stronger TCs. Under MHEWS protection, protected resilience remained statistically similar between moderate-intensity TCs (34 kt and 50 kt) but declined significantly under severe (≥64 kt) conditions. Although absolute reductions in exposure were greater in high-frequency, coastal, and wealthier cities, relative improvements from MHEWS were more pronounced in less frequently affected, inland, and socioeconomically disadvantaged areas. Consequently, MHEWS significantly narrowed resilience disparities among cities facing equivalent hazard exposures. This study introduces a scalable, behaviour-based framework for quantifying early-warning effectiveness, highlighting the essential role of integrated multi-level and multi-hazard warnings in disaster preparedness across cities amid escalating climate risks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 103111"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145921202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Low-carbon transition of phosphorus chemical industrial parks: A global systematic review 磷化工园区低碳转型：全球系统回顾

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103080

Xiang Yu , Luzhi Wang , Wentao Hu , Mudan Wang , Bei Zhu

As an energy-intensive sector, the phosphorus chemical industry’s low-carbon transition is vital for achieving global net-zero carbon emission targets under the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, the sector’s transition is constrained bya series of systemic barriers, including uneven phosphate distribution, carbon emission disparities, incosistentcarbon accounting methodologies, high costs of technology upgrades, and the lack of targeted policy. To address these, global phosphorus production industry has been exploring low-carbon transformation pathways that promote industrial agglomeration, integrate the industrial chain, accelerate technological innovation, adopt diversified policy instruments, and strengthen enterprise-led transition initiatives. Given that the phosphorus chemical industry has exhibited a spatial agglomeration globally, industrial parks have emerged as critial platform where these synergistic mechanisms can be integrated and scaled. Consequently, industrial parks function not only as central operational nodes, but also as pivotal enablers of net-zero transitions in the global phosphorus industry.

作为能源密集型行业，磷化工行业的低碳转型对于实现《巴黎协定》和可持续发展目标（SDGs）下的全球净零碳排放目标至关重要。然而，该行业的转型受到一系列系统性障碍的制约，包括磷酸盐分布不均、碳排放差异、碳核算方法不一致、技术升级成本高、缺乏针对性的政策。为此，全球磷肥产业一直在探索促进产业集聚、整合产业链、加快技术创新、多元化政策手段、强化企业主导转型的低碳转型路径。鉴于磷化工在全球范围内呈现出空间集聚的趋势，工业园区成为整合这些协同机制并实现规模化的重要平台。因此，工业园区不仅是中心运营节点，而且是全球磷工业净零转型的关键推动者。

{"title":"Low-carbon transition of phosphorus chemical industrial parks: A global systematic review","authors":"Xiang Yu , Luzhi Wang , Wentao Hu , Mudan Wang , Bei Zhu","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103080","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103080","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As an energy-intensive sector, the phosphorus chemical industry’s low-carbon transition is vital for achieving global net-zero carbon emission targets under the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, the sector’s transition is constrained bya series of systemic barriers, including uneven phosphate distribution, carbon emission disparities, incosistentcarbon accounting methodologies, high costs of technology upgrades, and the lack of targeted policy. To address these, global phosphorus production industry has been exploring low-carbon transformation pathways that promote industrial agglomeration, integrate the industrial chain, accelerate technological innovation, adopt diversified policy instruments, and strengthen enterprise-led transition initiatives. Given that the phosphorus chemical industry has exhibited a spatial agglomeration globally, industrial parks have emerged as critial platform where these synergistic mechanisms can be integrated and scaled. Consequently, industrial parks function not only as central operational nodes, but also as pivotal enablers of net-zero transitions in the global phosphorus industry.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 103080"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145995527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Advancing sustainability in data-sparse landscapes using a water-energy-food nexus approach 利用水-能源-粮食关系方法促进数据稀疏景观的可持续性

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103104

Donald O. Akanga , Nathan J. Moore , Kyla M. Dahlin , Dan Wanyama

Increasing pressure on natural resources in the last decades has led to a growing need for balance between preserving ecosystems and meeting human needs. However, sustainability is frustratingly difficult to measure due to its spatially specific nature and data deficiencies. Water, energy, and food (WEF) are critical sectors required to sustain human livelihoods. Yet, these sectors are highly susceptible to pressures associated with climate change and other anthropogenic pressures which in turn threaten socio-ecological sustainability. Vulnerable populations in developing countries are disproportionately affected by these pressures. For example, changes in precipitation (water) influence agricultural yields (food), which in turn increase human influence on the environment in terms of energy consumption (more use of charcoal and wood). Using a WEF nexus framework, we assess the socio-ecological sustainability of the Greater Mau Forest Complex, an important yet fragile ecosystem in southwest Kenya, from 1990 to 2021. By integrating remote sensing, field interviews, and historical crop yield data, we address challenges of data scarcity in assessing socio-ecological systems. Our analysis reveals shifting landscape composition and corresponding climate trends over the past three decades, alongside their parallels with socio-ecological balance and community vulnerability to climate change. We find compounding effects of prolonged dry conditions, erratic onset of growing seasons, declining crop productivity, and intensifying dependence on bioenergy – factors that interact to destabilize the WEF nexus. Our findings underscore the urgency of nexus-based interventions to enhance resilience in ecologically sensitive regions.

在过去的几十年里，自然资源面临的压力越来越大，因此越来越需要在保护生态系统和满足人类需求之间取得平衡。然而，由于其空间特殊性和数据不足，可持续性难以衡量。水、能源和粮食（WEF）是维持人类生计所需的关键部门。然而，这些部门极易受到与气候变化和其他人为压力有关的压力的影响，这些压力反过来又威胁到社会生态的可持续性。发展中国家的弱势群体受到这些压力的影响尤为严重。例如，降水（水）的变化影响农业产量（粮食），这反过来又增加了人类在能源消耗方面对环境的影响（更多地使用木炭和木材）。利用世界经济论坛联系框架，我们评估了1990年至2021年肯尼亚西南部一个重要但脆弱的生态系统——大茂森林复合体的社会生态可持续性。通过整合遥感、实地访谈和历史作物产量数据，我们解决了评估社会生态系统中数据稀缺的挑战。我们的分析揭示了过去三十年来景观组成的变化和相应的气候趋势，以及它们与社会生态平衡和社区对气候变化的脆弱性的相似之处。我们发现，长期的干旱条件、生长季节的不稳定、作物生产力的下降以及对生物能源的依赖加剧，这些因素相互作用，破坏了世界经济论坛关系的稳定。我们的研究结果强调了采取基于网络的干预措施来增强生态敏感地区的恢复力的紧迫性。

{"title":"Advancing sustainability in data-sparse landscapes using a water-energy-food nexus approach","authors":"Donald O. Akanga , Nathan J. Moore , Kyla M. Dahlin , Dan Wanyama","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103104","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103104","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Increasing pressure on natural resources in the last decades has led to a growing need for balance between preserving ecosystems and meeting human needs. However, sustainability is frustratingly difficult to measure due to its spatially specific nature and data deficiencies. Water, energy, and food (WEF) are critical sectors required to sustain human livelihoods. Yet, these sectors are highly susceptible to pressures associated with climate change and other anthropogenic pressures which in turn threaten socio-ecological sustainability. Vulnerable populations in developing countries are disproportionately affected by these pressures. For example, changes in precipitation (water) influence agricultural yields (food), which in turn increase human influence on the environment in terms of energy consumption (more use of charcoal and wood). Using a WEF nexus framework, we assess the socio-ecological sustainability of the Greater Mau Forest Complex, an important yet fragile ecosystem in southwest Kenya, from 1990 to 2021. By integrating remote sensing, field interviews, and historical crop yield data, we address challenges of data scarcity in assessing socio-ecological systems. Our analysis reveals shifting landscape composition and corresponding climate trends over the past three decades, alongside their parallels with socio-ecological balance and community vulnerability to climate change. We find compounding effects of prolonged dry conditions, erratic onset of growing seasons, declining crop productivity, and intensifying dependence on bioenergy – factors that interact to destabilize the WEF nexus. Our findings underscore the urgency of nexus-based interventions to enhance resilience in ecologically sensitive regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 103104"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145785163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0