Global Environmental Change最新文献_第4页

Supporting climate resilient development planning − a dynamic adaptive pathways based approach and an illustrative case from Cork City, Ireland 支持气候适应型发展规划——基于动态适应性路径的方法和爱尔兰科克市的一个说明性案例

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103070

Gaby S. Langendijk , Sadie McEvoy , Denise McCullagh , Marjolijn Haasnoot

To achieve climate resilient societies, climate adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable development (AMD) are all necessary. The concept of “climate resilient development pathways” (CRDP) recognizes this as intertwined challenges. However, no systematic approach exists for the creation and appraisal of CRDP that integrates adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable development over time, and addresses the interactions between these policy objectives. Building upon Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning (DAPP), this paper presents a decision analysis approach for integrating CRDP policy objectives in Climate Resilient Adaptive Pathways Planning, or CRDAPP. Key additions in this approach are: a) using visioning to design CRD strategies for managing pathways complexity; b) introducing target points for sustainable development and climate mitigation action setting, to help sequence measures into alternative pathways, alongside traditional performance thresholds; and c) defining types of adaptation, mitigation and development interactions to systematically evaluate actions and pathways. We test the approach in an illustrative case study in Cork City, Ireland. The CRDAPP steps are carried out for the city, with multiple pathways designed and critical decisions over time identified. The resulting CRDAPP analysis provides insights into the range of options for Cork on how to combine mitigation, adaptation, and sustainable development actions over time, to work toward different future states of the city. CRDAPP can support decisionmakers to better align adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable development action into their planning processes.

为了实现气候适应型社会，气候适应、减缓和可持续发展都是必要的。“气候适应型发展路径”（CRDP）的概念认识到这是相互交织的挑战。然而，目前还没有系统的方法来创建和评估综合适应、减缓和可持续发展的CRDP，并解决这些政策目标之间的相互作用。本文在动态适应路径规划（DAPP）的基础上，提出了一种决策分析方法，将CRDP政策目标整合到气候适应性路径规划（CRDAPP）中。该方法的关键补充是：a)使用视觉来设计管理路径复杂性的CRD策略；B)引入可持续发展和气候缓解行动设定的目标点，以帮助将各项措施与传统绩效阈值一起纳入备选途径；c)确定适应、减缓和发展相互作用的类型，以系统地评估行动和途径。我们在爱尔兰科克市的一个说明性案例研究中测试了这种方法。CRDAPP的步骤是针对城市进行的，设计了多种途径，并随着时间的推移确定了关键决策。由此产生的CRDAPP分析为科克提供了一系列选择，了解如何将缓解、适应和可持续发展行动结合起来，朝着城市的不同未来状态努力。CRDAPP可以支持决策者更好地将适应、减缓和可持续发展行动纳入其规划进程。

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引用次数: 0

Mapping the solution space for local adaptation under global change: An test of concept for the Vietnamese Mekong delta 绘制全球变化下地方适应的解决方案空间：越南湄公河三角洲的概念测试

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-10-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103071

Frances E. Dunn , Marjolijn Haasnoot , Haomiao Du , Star Karabil , Philip S.J. Minderhoud , Vincent Schippers , Murray Scown , Annisa Triyanti , Trang Vu , Hans Middelkoop

Current and projected environmental changes are complex and unprecedented in the context of modern societies. Effective adaptation strategies must consider constraining and enabling factors from both physical and societal aspects, as well as associated uncertainties at different points in time. Here we present a multidisciplinary method to quantify the solution space for individual adaptation measures—a conceptual space describing the feasibility of effectively implementing an adaptation measure, bounded by physical and societal constraints. Solution spaces can be projected over time under different scenarios and for multiple adaptation measures to identify what measures are available at any point, when the solution space changes (enabling or disabling choices), and what can be done to expand the space. We demonstrate the method for an illustrative case study of the coastal Mekong delta in Vietnam, an area with intense overlapping drivers of relative sea-level rise increasing coastal flooding. We consider three adaptation measures (mangroves, dikes, retreat) over the 21st century. The implementation reveals critical conditions for adaptation strategies, and when they might become infeasible without enabling actions. Our novel systematic approach can be implemented in real-world cases using data from the specific case of interest to assess the feasibility of measures determined by the (bio)physical, socio-economic, governance and legislation context, and provides insight into adaptation limitations and measures to maintain and/or expand the solution space. Such a multi-dimensional assessment is challenging due to the identification of critical conditions for many different dimensions, but is valuable to evaluate adaptation potential and design adaptive pathways plans to deal with uncertain changing conditions.

在现代社会的背景下，当前和预计的环境变化是复杂和前所未有的。有效的适应战略必须考虑来自自然和社会方面的制约和促进因素，以及不同时间点的相关不确定性。在这里，我们提出了一种多学科方法来量化个体适应措施的解决方案空间——一个描述有效实施适应措施的可行性的概念空间，受到物理和社会约束的限制。可以在不同场景下对解决方案空间进行随时间的预测，并针对多种适应措施确定在解决方案空间发生变化（启用或禁用选择）时在任一点上可用的措施，以及可以采取哪些措施来扩展空间。我们以越南沿海湄公河三角洲为例，对该方法进行了示范研究，该地区相对海平面上升的驱动因素叠加强烈，导致沿海洪水增加。我们考虑了21世纪的三种适应措施（红树林、堤防、退耕）。实施情况揭示了适应战略的关键条件，以及如果不采取扶持行动，适应战略何时可能变得不可行的情况。我们的新系统方法可以在实际案例中实施，使用来自特定案例的数据来评估由（生物）物理、社会经济、治理和立法背景决定的措施的可行性，并提供对适应限制和维持和/或扩大解决方案空间的措施的见解。这种多维评估具有挑战性，因为需要识别许多不同维度的关键条件，但对于评估适应潜力和设计适应路径计划以应对不确定的变化条件是有价值的。

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引用次数: 0

Adaptive flood risk management: A decision support system integrating deep learning, digital twins, and economic risk assessment 自适应洪水风险管理：集成深度学习、数字孪生和经济风险评估的决策支持系统

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103069

Miia Chabot , Jean-Louis Bertrand

Floods are among the most destructive climate-related disasters, with their frequency and severity increasing due to climate change and urban expansion. In response to rising claims and insufficient adaptation measures, insurers are progressively withdrawing from high-risk areas, thereby shifting the responsibility for risk management to businesses and municipalities, who must either implement their own solutions or resort to self-insurance. Effective flood risk management requires accurate forecasting, robust financial impact assessments, and decision support systems (DSS) to inform adaptation strategies. Within the framework of the European Union (EU) Floods Directive, this study develops an integrated, AI-powered DSS that combines deep learning-based flood forecasting (ConvLSTM models), economic vulnerability modelling (Joint Research Centre methodology), digital twin simulations, and predictive analytics to support data-driven adaptation planning. The framework was initially applied to assess pluvial, fluvial, and coastal flood risks in the coastal city of Nice, France, and subsequently extended to over 100 public and private sites across three urban municipalities. The findings demonstrate that this methodology improves the accuracy of risk assessments and provides a structured basis for capital allocation, insurability evaluation, and the optimization of adaptation investments. The multi-site deployment revealed significant governance, legal, and behavioural constraints, with public authorities and family-owned businesses responding differently despite comparable risk information. This research shows that integrating AI and digital twin technologies advances the EU Floods Directive’s objectives by enhancing risk mapping, preparedness, and transparency, while supporting public–private partnerships and extending protection to vulnerable populations at risk of losing insurance coverage.

洪水是最具破坏性的气候相关灾害之一，由于气候变化和城市扩张，洪水发生的频率和严重程度都在增加。为了应对索赔的增加和适应措施的不足，保险公司正在逐步退出高风险地区，从而将风险管理的责任转移给企业和市政当局，它们必须实施自己的解决方案或诉诸自我保险。有效的洪水风险管理需要准确的预测、稳健的财务影响评估和决策支持系统（DSS）来为适应战略提供信息。在欧盟（EU）洪水指令的框架内，本研究开发了一个集成的人工智能驱动的DSS，该DSS结合了基于深度学习的洪水预报（ConvLSTM模型）、经济脆弱性建模（联合研究中心方法）、数字孪生模拟和预测分析，以支持数据驱动的适应规划。该框架最初用于评估法国尼斯沿海城市的雨洪、河流和沿海洪水风险，随后扩展到三个城市的100多个公共和私人场所。研究结果表明，该方法提高了风险评估的准确性，为资本配置、可保性评估和适应性投资优化提供了结构化的基础。多地点部署显示了重大的治理、法律和行为约束，尽管风险信息相似，但公共当局和家族企业的反应却不同。这项研究表明，人工智能和数字孪生技术的整合通过加强风险测绘、准备和透明度，同时支持公私伙伴关系，并将保护范围扩大到有可能失去保险覆盖的弱势群体，从而推进了欧盟《洪水指令》的目标。

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引用次数: 0

Mitigation deterrence and unrealistic expectations: the future costs of forest carbon offsets 减缓、威慑和不切实际的期望：森林碳抵消的未来成本

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-09-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103068

Camilla Moioli , Laurent Drouet , Dominik Roeser , Johannes Emmerling , Hisham Zerriffi

This study examines the economic and societal impacts of using Forest Carbon Offsets (FCO) as a negative emissions technology in climate mitigation strategies. FCO includes afforestation, reforestation, and reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) initiatives aimed at achieving global climate targets, such as limiting temperature rise to 2 °C by 2100. Despite their potential, challenges such as the impermanence of carbon storage, overestimation of carbon removal, and mitigation deterrence—where reliance on FCO reduces other climate actions—persist. Using the WITCH integrated assessment model, this study analyzes the effects of FCO on energy sector investments, carbon pricing, and mitigation costs under scenarios with perfect foresight, myopic behavior, and varying degrees of forest carbon loss (FCL). Results indicate that heavy reliance on FCO leads to mitigation deterrence, with renewable and carbon capture investments decreasing by 8.6 % and 31 %, respectively, while fossil fuel investments increase by 1 %. Scenarios with 100 % FCL by 2045 could increase global GDP loss by 0.5 percentage points, surpassing the costs of not using FCO. Non-OECD countries, more vulnerable with lower economic resilience, could face mitigation costs up to 1.7 percentage points higher than OECD countries in similar FCL scenarios, raising equity concerns in climate policy. This research underscores the need for careful FCO management, accurate carbon sequestration estimates, and equitable policy frameworks to prevent moral hazards and ensure effective climate action. Clear definitions of which emissions can be offset versus those requiring direct reduction are essential to prevent over-reliance on offsets and maintain a balanced mitigation approach.

本研究考察了在气候减缓战略中使用森林碳抵消（FCO）作为负排放技术的经济和社会影响。FCO包括植树造林、再造林和减少森林砍伐和退化（REDD）排放倡议，旨在实现全球气候目标，如到2100年将气温上升限制在2°C以内。尽管它们具有潜力，但诸如碳储存的非永久性、对碳去除的高估以及减缓威慑等挑战仍然存在——在这些方面，对外交事务部的依赖减少了其他气候行动。本文利用WITCH综合评估模型，分析了完全预见、短视行为和不同程度森林碳损失情景下，FCO对能源部门投资、碳定价和减排成本的影响。结果表明，对FCO的严重依赖导致减缓威慑，可再生能源和碳捕获投资分别减少8.6%和31%，而化石燃料投资增加1%。到2045年，100%使用FCO的情景可能会使全球GDP损失增加0.5个百分点，超过不使用FCO的成本。非经合组织国家更加脆弱，经济复原力较低，在类似的FCL情景下，它们面临的缓解成本可能比经合组织国家高出1.7个百分点，这引发了对气候政策公平性的担忧。这项研究强调，需要谨慎的外交事务部管理、准确的碳封存估算和公平的政策框架，以防止道德风险，确保有效的气候行动。明确界定哪些排放可以抵消，哪些排放需要直接减少，这对于防止过度依赖抵消和保持平衡的缓解办法至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Participatory storyworld building for unlocking climate adaptation 构建参与式故事世界，解锁气候适应

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103054

Benjamin T. Pederick , Martin Potter , Hailey Cooperrider , Sidney Icarus , Donna Luckman , Rebecca Dahl , Mark Elliot , Trish Cave , Jason Tampake , Brett A. Bryan

Worldwide, local communities are experiencing increasing climate change impacts, for which they are underprepared, and which are predicted to further intensify into the future. Closing this knowledge action gap in local climate adaptation is a socio-political challenge, requiring social science solutions. Recognising the strategic value of local governance actors, we prototyped an innovative participatory storyworld building method with local government decision makers. This method narratively downscaled climate pathways to a collective place-based storyworld. Participants imagined and detailed an alternate version of their real community, presented along near future climate pathways, mapping features, validating climate risks, and scripting individual storylines. Storyworld building proved compelling and useful for a diverse cohort as an innovative and effective form of applied science storytelling that fosters collaboration across difference and discipline. We found that expressing climate change as a local storyworld makes climate science meaningful, increases feelings of agency, and establishes a multilateral flow of knowledge between climate science and local storylines. This method has since been implemented in several local councils, operationalised into online localisation workshops for local government staff and stakeholders, and is gathering momentum as a transferable method for local governments to engage and mobilise coordinated community climate action.

在世界范围内，当地社区正在经历越来越大的气候变化影响，他们对此准备不足，预计未来这种影响将进一步加剧。缩小当地气候适应方面的知识和行动差距是一项社会政治挑战，需要社会科学的解决方案。认识到地方治理参与者的战略价值，我们与地方政府决策者一起设计了一种创新的参与式故事世界构建方法。这种方法在叙事上将气候路径缩小到一个基于集体地点的故事世界。参与者想象并详细描述了他们真实社区的另一个版本，展示了近期的气候路径，绘制了特征，验证了气候风险，并编写了个人故事情节。作为一种创新和有效的应用科学讲故事的形式，故事世界的构建对于不同的群体来说是引人注目和有用的，它促进了跨差异和学科的合作。我们发现，将气候变化表达为一个地方故事世界，使气候科学变得有意义，增加了能动性，并在气候科学和地方故事情节之间建立了多边知识流动。此后，该方法已在几个地方议会实施，并在面向地方政府工作人员和利益相关者的在线本地化研讨会上实施，作为地方政府参与和动员协调一致的社区气候行动的可转让方法，该方法正在获得势头。

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引用次数: 0

De-energization as maladaptation: Uneven residential exposure to wildfire Public Safety Power Shutoffs and compound heat 作为不适应的断电：不均匀的住宅暴露于野火公共安全断电和复合热

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-09-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103067

Kate Burrows , Kathryn McConnell , Nora Louise Schwaller , Chantel F. Pheiffer

In response to growing levels of wildfire destruction, electric utility companies are adopting powerline de-energization as an adaptation strategy intended to prevent wildfire ignitions. While reducing wildfire risk, planned de-energizations also expose residents to electricity loss, potentially causing harmful consequences. We investigated the extent to which planned de-energization can be considered a form of maladaptation, in which an adaptive response to a climate-related hazard results in unintended, concurrent harms. To do so, we examined the co-occurrence of Public Safety Power Shutoffs (PSPSs) with extreme heat (temperature ≥ 32 °C) in California between October 2021 and September 2024. Our analysis revealed compound heat-PSPS outages throughout this period, including extreme temperatures exceeding 40 °C, during power shutoffs. Compound heat-PSPS events were geographically concentrated in census block groups with higher proportions of older adults and mobile home residents, both populations which may be at increased risk of heat-related morbidity and mortality. While they affected a relatively small proportion of customers de-energized by PSPSs, compound heat-PSPS outages raise concerns over extreme heat exposure when access to electricity-based cooling strategies is curtailed. Evaluating the maladaptive effects of institutional responses to climate change hazards is critical for comprehensively weighing both the benefits and harms of emerging adaptation strategies.

为了应对日益严重的野火破坏，电力公司正在采用输电线断电作为一种适应策略，旨在防止野火点燃。在减少野火风险的同时，计划中的断电也使居民面临电力损失，可能造成有害后果。我们调查了计划性断电在多大程度上可以被认为是一种适应不良的形式，在这种情况下，对气候相关危害的适应性反应会导致意想不到的、同时发生的危害。为此，我们研究了2021年10月至2024年9月期间加州极端高温（温度≥32°C）下公共安全停电（psp）的共同发生情况。我们的分析显示，在停电期间，复合热- psps中断，包括超过40°C的极端温度。复合热- psps事件在地理上集中在老年人和活动房屋居民比例较高的人口普查街区群体中，这两个人群可能面临与热相关的发病率和死亡率增加的风险。虽然它们影响了相对较小比例的被psps断电的客户，但复合热- psps停电引起了人们对极端高温暴露的担忧，因为电力冷却策略的使用受到限制。评估机构应对气候变化危害的不良影响对于全面权衡新出现的适应战略的利弊至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Location-specific climate and environmental benefits of China’s coal mining phase-down towards carbon neutrality 中国煤炭开采逐步减少碳中和的区位气候和环境效益

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-09-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103057

Hao Li , Tao Yang , Linman Li , Bin Lu , Tianzheng Zhang , Xiaolong Lu , Rui Peng , Zhaohua Wang

The coal mining industry, characterized by its high-intensity emissions of both greenhouse gases (GHGs) and pollutants, urgently requires a substantial transformation to tackle these challenges. Existing studies have given insufficient attention to location-specific phase-down of coal mining operations and the associated climate and environmental co-benefits. Here, this study constructs a comprehensive database encompassing 380 large coal mines in China, and then compile inventories of energy consumption, methane emissions and pollutant emissions for each coal mine from 2023 to 2060. Afterwards, this study integrates the technical and economic attributes to assess their retirement rankings. Four phase-down strategies are formulated in accordance with the coal demand trends towards carbon neutrality while the potential climate and environmental co-benefits are thoroughly evaluated. This study indicates that the reduction in both coal demand and emission intensity are crucial factors in alleviating environmental pressures and offer valuable insights into the location-specific phase-down strategies for the coal mining industry.

煤炭采矿业的特点是温室气体和污染物的高强度排放，迫切需要进行重大转型以应对这些挑战。现有的研究没有充分注意具体地点逐步减少煤炭开采作业以及有关的气候和环境的共同利益。在此，本研究构建了包含中国380个大型煤矿的综合数据库，并编制了各煤矿2023 - 2060年的能源消耗、甲烷排放和污染物排放清单。然后，本研究将技术属性和经济属性结合起来评估其退休排名。根据煤炭需求走向碳中和的趋势，制定了四项逐步淘汰战略，同时对潜在的气候和环境协同效益进行了全面评估。该研究表明，煤炭需求和排放强度的降低是缓解环境压力的关键因素，并为煤炭开采行业的具体地点逐步减少战略提供了有价值的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Status of global accumulation of marine debris 全球海洋垃圾堆积状况

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103058

Eranga K. Galappaththi , Jennifer D. Russell , Mitch Dolby , Thomas Newsome , Sithuni M. Jayasekara

The issue of marine debris pollution is a growing crisis, with detrimental effects on ecosystems, marine organisms, and human health. More than 800 coastal and marine species are affected, resulting in billions of dollars of economic losses each year. To better understand the dimensions of this challenge, it is important to establish a solid scientific knowledge base. This study aims to synthesize the global research and evidence of marine debris accumulation in coastal areas. Through a systematic literature review, we found that Europe and Asia are the primary regions where marine debris accumulation is studied, with the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans accounting for most of research. The majority of publications are by first authors from European and Asian institutions, with the US also contributing significantly. Most studies focus on the volume of marine debris, with general waste being the most studied type. Additionally, physical and environmental factors play a larger role than human-based factors in marine debris accumulation. Overall, there is a trend of increasing and relocating marine debris accumulation across all determining factors. We also identified important areas for future research to deepen our understanding of the factors influencing debris accumulation. In particular, there is a notable gap in the practical application of tools and methods for tracking and identifying marine debris, such as satellite remote sensing, specialized databases, and computational modeling approaches. The study findings offer vital insights for decision-making regarding marine debris accumulation, benefiting policymakers, researchers, and other stakeholders striving towards a more sustainable globe.

海洋垃圾污染问题是一个日益严重的危机，对生态系统、海洋生物和人类健康产生有害影响。800多种沿海和海洋物种受到影响，每年造成数十亿美元的经济损失。为了更好地了解这一挑战的规模，重要的是建立一个坚实的科学知识库。本研究旨在综合全球沿海地区海洋垃圾堆积的研究和证据。通过系统的文献回顾，我们发现欧洲和亚洲是海洋垃圾堆积研究的主要区域，其中大西洋和太平洋占研究的大部分。大多数出版物的第一作者来自欧洲和亚洲的机构，美国也贡献很大。大多数研究集中在海洋垃圾的体积上，一般垃圾是研究最多的类型。此外，物理和环境因素在海洋垃圾堆积中的作用大于人为因素。总体而言，在所有决定因素中，海洋垃圾堆积都有增加和迁移的趋势。我们还确定了未来研究的重要领域，以加深我们对影响碎屑堆积因素的理解。特别是，在跟踪和识别海洋碎片的工具和方法，如卫星遥感、专门数据库和计算建模方法的实际应用方面存在显著差距。研究结果为有关海洋垃圾堆积的决策提供了重要见解，使政策制定者、研究人员和其他利益相关者受益，努力实现更可持续的地球。

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引用次数: 0

Can zero deforestation agreements in the cattle sector protect Colombia’s forests and páramos? 畜牧业零毁林协议能保护哥伦比亚的森林和páramos吗？

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103055

Clare C. Sullivan , Joseph App , Lisa L. Rausch , Steven Sotelo , Daisy Tarrier , Miguel Ángel Vianchá Pinzón , Holly K. Gibbs

Zero Deforestation Agreements (ZDAs) for the beef and dairy sectors in Colombia could curb land cover change in the country’s highly biodiverse tropical forests and páramos. Improved understanding of the structure of the cattle supply chain and the ZDAs’ potential area of influence can help target companies with high-risk supply chains, inform implementation, and set realistic expectations for the ZDAs contribution to conservation goals for forest and páramos. We provide the first map of infrastructure for the beef and dairy sectors and link this to a dataset of cattle transactions to delineate “supply zones” or potential buying areas for each slaughterhouse and dairy. We use these supply zones to assess three spatially explicit scenarios of the potential reach of the ZDAs with expanded participation. At present, ZDA signatories’ supply zones cover 10.4 Mha or 23% of Colombia’s forests, with a large area of influence associated with beef sector signatories. Participation of all major companies could nearly double the ZDAs reach to include 41% of forests, and full participation could reach 49% of forests. The dairy ZDA also targets high alpine páramos, and 57% of unprotected páramos are within signatories’ supply zones. Full participation could support the conservation of 96% of this unique ecosystem. We found that indirect animal movements make up 80% of the supply chain, so policy implementation will depend on monitoring and traceability systems that go beyond suppliers selling directly to slaughterhouses or dairies. More companies must participate and effectively implement the ZDAs to realize this conservation potential.

针对哥伦比亚牛肉和乳制品行业的零毁林协议（zda）可以遏制该国生物多样性丰富的热带森林和páramos的土地覆盖变化。提高对牛供应链结构和zda潜在影响领域的理解，可以帮助具有高风险供应链的目标公司，为实施提供信息，并为zda对森林和páramos保护目标的贡献设定现实的期望。我们为牛肉和乳制品行业提供了第一张基础设施地图，并将其与牛交易数据集联系起来，以划定每个屠宰场和乳制品的“供应区”或潜在购买区域。我们使用这些供应区来评估三种空间上明确的情景，以扩大参与zda的潜在影响。目前，ZDA签署国的供应区覆盖了10.4公顷森林，占哥伦比亚森林面积的23%，其中牛肉部门签署国的影响力很大。所有大公司的参与可以使zda覆盖面扩大近一倍，达到41%的森林，全面参与可以达到49%的森林。ZDA也将目标锁定在高山地区páramos，其中57%的未受保护的páramos位于签署方的供应区内。充分参与可以保护这一独特生态系统的96%。我们发现，间接的动物运动占供应链的80%，因此政策的实施将取决于监测和可追溯系统，而不仅仅是供应商直接向屠宰场或奶牛场销售。必须有更多的公司参与并有效实施zda，以实现这一保护潜力。

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引用次数: 0

Citizen science data can significantly improve predictions of potential ranges of non-charismatic species: a study on two freshwater sponges 公民科学数据可以显著提高对非魅力型物种潜在分布范围的预测：一项对两种淡水海绵的研究

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-09-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103056

Łukasz Dylewski , Radosław Puchałka , Joanna T. Bialas , Katarína Fogašová , Zuzanna Jagiełło , Sandra Kaźmierczak , Henn Timm , Marcin Tobółka , Grzegorz Tończyk , Julia Zawadzka , Marcin K. Dyderski

Freshwater sponge species play crucial roles in aquatic ecosystems, yet their distribution patterns and responses to environmental changes remain insufficiently understood. Relying solely on platforms like GBIF for predicting species distribution may be inadequate and occasionally misleading due to biases and inaccuracies in the data. We investigated the distribution records and potential future distributions of two freshwater sponge species, Spongilla lacustris and Ephydatia fluviatilis, across Europe. Using various data sources, including the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), literature records, and internet naturalist data (iEcology), we compiled a comprehensive dataset comprising 1,330 records for S. lacustris and 9,854 records for E. fluviatilis. While GBIF records predominated in Western Europe, additional sources filled gaps in distribution records, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe. Species distribution models (SDMs) performed well, with S. lacustris exhibiting a broad climatic optimum range in Western and Northern Europe, while E. fluviatilis displayed a narrower range, primarily in northern regions. Future projections indicated a northward shift of freshwater sponge species in response to climate change, with potential contractions in Baltic Sea countries. These findings underscore that using diverse data sources such as scientific literature, field surveys, local ecological knowledge, and citizen science initiatives offers a more holistic view of species distribution patterns. Social media platforms also play a significant role in supplementing biodiversity data and engaging communities in conservation efforts.

淡水海绵物种在水生生态系统中发挥着至关重要的作用，但人们对其分布格局和对环境变化的响应却知之甚少。仅仅依靠GBIF这样的平台来预测物种分布可能是不够的，有时还会因为数据的偏差和不准确而产生误导。本文研究了两种淡水海绵物种——湖海绵和流海绵在欧洲的分布记录和潜在的未来分布。利用各种数据来源，包括全球生物多样性信息设施（GBIF）、文献记录和互联网自然学家数据（iEcology），我们编制了一个全面的数据集，其中包括湖泊沙蚕的1,330条记录和河流沙蚕的9,854条记录。虽然GBIF记录在西欧占主导地位，但其他来源填补了分布记录的空白，特别是在中欧和东欧。物种分布模型（SDMs）表现良好，湖螺在西欧和北欧表现出较宽的气候最佳范围，而河螺则表现出较窄的气候最佳范围，主要在北部地区。未来的预测表明，作为对气候变化的响应，淡水海绵物种将向北转移，波罗的海国家的淡水海绵物种可能会减少。这些发现强调，利用不同的数据来源，如科学文献、实地调查、当地生态知识和公民科学倡议，可以更全面地了解物种分布模式。社交媒体平台在补充生物多样性数据和吸引社区参与保护工作方面也发挥着重要作用。

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