Global Environmental Change最新文献_第4页

A novel approach to developing local flood vulnerability scenarios based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways framework: Sectoral risks and policy implications 基于共享社会经济路径框架的开发地方洪水脆弱性情景的新方法：部门风险和政策影响

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103079

Bien Thanh Vu , Olabisi S. Obaitor , Antje Katzschner , Lena C. Grobusch , Dominic Sett , Andrea Ortiz-Vargas , Michael Hagenlocher , Ulrike Schinkel , Felix Bachofer , Linh Khanh Hoang Nguyen , Matthias Garschagen

Developing locally tailored vulnerability scenarios is crucial for effective flood risk management, yet existing approaches often lack integration with long-term socioeconomic trajectories. To address this gap, the study introduces an innovative methodology that downscales global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and integrates them with current vulnerability data to create future vulnerability scenarios for key sectors. This approach is applied to Hue City, Central Vietnam as a case study, focusing on health, agriculture, transport, and water, to illustrate its practical application. The findings indicate that under SSP1, characterized by sustainable growth, socio-economic policies focused on sustainability lead to substantial vulnerability reductions across all sectors. Health systems become more resilient, sustainable agricultural practices minimize economic losses, and improved infrastructure reduces transport disruptions and water contamination risks. SSP2 reflects a continuation of current socio-economic trends, resulting in moderate improvements; however, incremental policy changes and resource constraints leave persistent vulnerabilities. In contrast, SSP3, marked by fragmented and poorly managed growth, exacerbates flood risks, where weak healthcare systems, fragile agricultural practices, inadequate transport infrastructure, and minimal water contamination controls intensify flood-related impacts. This study demonstrates the importance of mainstreaming socioeconomic dynamics into flood risk management and offers a transferable framework for scenario-based planning in diverse regional contexts. Future research should aim to quantify vulnerability trajectories, thereby enhancing resilience planning and supporting data-driven decision-making in flood-prone areas.

制定适合当地的脆弱性情景对于有效的洪水风险管理至关重要，但现有方法往往缺乏与长期社会经济轨迹的整合。为了解决这一差距，该研究引入了一种创新的方法，该方法缩小了全球共享社会经济路径（ssp）的规模，并将其与当前的脆弱性数据相结合，以创建关键部门的未来脆弱性情景。这一方法以越南中部顺化市为案例研究，重点放在卫生、农业、交通和水方面，以说明其实际应用。研究结果表明，在以可持续增长为特征的SSP1下，注重可持续性的社会经济政策导致所有部门的脆弱性大幅降低。卫生系统变得更有弹性，可持续的农业做法最大限度地减少经济损失，改善的基础设施减少了运输中断和水污染风险。SSP2反映了当前社会经济趋势的延续，导致适度改善；但是，增量策略更改和资源约束会留下持久的漏洞。相比之下，SSP3以分散和管理不善的增长为特征，加剧了洪水风险，其中薄弱的医疗体系、脆弱的农业实践、不充分的交通基础设施和最低限度的水污染控制加剧了与洪水相关的影响。该研究证明了将社会经济动态纳入洪水风险管理主流的重要性，并为不同区域背景下基于情景的规划提供了一个可转移的框架。未来的研究应致力于量化脆弱性轨迹，从而加强洪水易发地区的恢复力规划和支持数据驱动的决策。

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引用次数: 0

The potential negative impact of the UNFCCC: An analysis of sectoral, geographical, and temporal problem shifts from climate policies and measures in 25 industrialized countries 《联合国气候变化框架公约》的潜在负面影响：25个工业化国家气候政策和措施的部门、地理和时间问题转变分析

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103075

Ashok Vardhan Adipudi, Rakhyun E. Kim, Frank Biermann

Climate mitigation policies and measures, while well-intentioned, can generate unintended consequences—a phenomenon known as ‘problem-shifting’, where efforts to curb climate change inadvertently create new environmental or socio-economic challenges. Although issues such as carbon leakage have been acknowledged under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, no systematic analysis has examined the magnitude and direction of these shifts. This study analyzes 182 national communications submitted by 25 Global North countries between 1994 and 2023, identifying 718 instances of problem-shifting risk across 712 climate policies and measures. These risks span sectors, institutions, and regions, manifesting as cascading sectoral shifts, transboundary displacements from the Global North to the Global South, and temporal shifts that intensify climate burdens for future generations. Communities in developing regions—especially those dependent on vulnerable sectors—face disproportionate impacts, compounding existing vulnerabilities. The findings underscore the urgent need for holistic, Earth-system-based approaches to climate action that account for system-wide human-environment interactions, minimize unintended consequences, and prevent further problem-shifting. A transition towards such integrative strategies is essential to achieving equitable and sustainable outcomes in global climate governance.

气候减缓政策和措施虽然出发点是好的，但可能产生意想不到的后果——一种被称为“问题转移”的现象，即遏制气候变化的努力无意中造成了新的环境或社会经济挑战。尽管《联合国气候变化框架公约》已经承认了碳泄漏等问题，但还没有系统的分析来检验这些变化的幅度和方向。本研究分析了25个北半球国家在1994年至2023年间提交的182份国家信息通报，确定了712项气候政策和措施中718个问题转移风险实例。这些风险跨越部门、机构和地区，表现为级联的部门转移、从全球北方向全球南方的跨界迁移，以及加剧子孙后代气候负担的时间转移。发展中地区的社区，特别是那些依赖脆弱部门的社区，面临着不成比例的影响，加剧了现有的脆弱性。研究结果强调，迫切需要采取全面的、基于地球系统的气候行动方法，以考虑全系统的人与环境相互作用，最大限度地减少意外后果，并防止进一步的问题转移。向这种综合战略过渡对于在全球气候治理中取得公平和可持续的成果至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

TOWARDS RESILIENT AND INCLUSIVE CLIMATE COMPATIBLE DEVELOPMENT: A PARTICIPATORY, MIXED-METHOD SCENARIOS APPROACH FOR ZAMBIA 实现有弹性和包容性的气候兼容发展：赞比亚的参与式混合方法方案

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103072

Nick Hughes , Mulima Nyambe-Mubanga , Willard Mapulanga , Malonga Hazemba , Stephen Chileshe , Bernard Tembo , Jim Watson , Jennifer Cronin , Steve Pye , Julia Tomei , Meron Tesfamichael , Yacob Mulugetta , Simon Bawakyillenuo , Aba Obrumah Crentsil

Climate compatible development aims to align climate change mitigation and adaptation with social and economic development. Successful climate compatible development must be socially inclusive, and resilient to external shocks. Zambia is a country at the frontline of climate change, with multiple development challenges, and ambitions to pursue a climate compatible development pathway. Scenarios are tools with a long history of application in strategic planning, and may be suitable tools to help countries explore climate compatible development. Therefore, we developed a novel participatory, mixed-method scenario process, to explore pathways of resilient and inclusive climate compatible development for Zambia. We took a stakeholder-led participatory approach, and combined qualitative scenario development techniques with quantitative energy system modelling. We compared a scenario characterised by centralised governance and infrastructure, large-scale export-led industries and continued urbanisation, with one characterised by greater decentralisation of governance, investment decisions and economic development strategies, which maintains the viability of rural livelihoods and slows the urbanisation trend. The scenarios provide a framework for considering opportunities and risks in planning for climate compatible development, and suggest that Zambian decision-makers should: test infrastructure investments and long-term economic plans for both climate and economic resilience; pursue mutually beneficial, equitable development partnerships with like-minded international partners; and appropriately allocate responsibility to different scales of governance and ensure coordination between them. The issues highlighted by the scenarios are of relevance to other countries facing similar challenges. The paper demonstrates that a participatory, mixed-method scenario approach provides a useful framework to explore climate compatible development.

气候兼容发展旨在使减缓和适应气候变化与社会和经济发展相结合。成功的气候相容发展必须具有社会包容性和抵御外部冲击的能力。赞比亚是气候变化最前沿的国家，面临多重发展挑战，有追求气候兼容发展道路的雄心。情景是在战略规划中具有悠久应用历史的工具，可能是帮助各国探索气候相容发展的合适工具。因此，我们开发了一种新颖的参与式混合方法情景流程，以探索赞比亚弹性和包容性气候兼容发展的途径。我们采用了利益相关者主导的参与式方法，并将定性情景开发技术与定量能源系统建模相结合。我们比较了一种以集中治理和基础设施、大规模出口导向型产业和持续城市化为特征的情景，以及一种以更大程度的分散治理、投资决策和经济发展战略为特征的情景，后者维持了农村生计的可行性，并减缓了城市化趋势。这些情景为考虑气候相容发展规划中的机遇和风险提供了一个框架，并建议赞比亚决策者应该：测试基础设施投资和气候和经济韧性的长期经济计划；与志同道合的国际伙伴建立互利、公平的发展伙伴关系；合理分配不同治理规模的责任，保证治理规模之间的协调。这些情景所强调的问题与面临类似挑战的其他国家有关。本文论证了参与式、混合方法情景方法为探索气候相容发展提供了一个有用的框架。

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引用次数: 0

Will women save the planet? Correlation, causality, and common causes 女性会拯救地球吗？相关性、因果关系和共同原因

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103077

Ingrid Hjort , Gry Østenstad

While evidence suggests a strong positive cross-country correlation between women’s empowerment and progress on environmental and climate issues, the causal mechanisms remain unclear. This article critically examines the assumption that women’s empowerment drives climate action and environmental protection. By exploring possible causal channels and existing empirical evidence, we highlight the need to distinguish causality from correlation in this domain. We call for an exploration into whether advancements in women’s empowerment and environmental issues are determined by shared underlying factors connected to economic, political and institutional aspects. A more nuanced understanding of these complex interrelations is essential for developing effective and evidence-based environmental and gender policies.

虽然有证据表明，妇女赋权与在环境和气候问题上取得进展之间存在强烈的跨国正相关关系，但其因果机制仍不清楚。本文批判性地审视了妇女赋权推动气候行动和环境保护的假设。通过探索可能的因果渠道和现有的经验证据，我们强调了在这个领域区分因果关系和相关性的必要性。我们呼吁探讨妇女赋权和环境问题的进展是否由与经济、政治和体制方面有关的共同潜在因素决定。更细致地了解这些复杂的相互关系对于制定有效的、以证据为基础的环境和性别政策至关重要。

引用次数: 0

Trade of crop products contribute to the alleviation of global nitrate leaching risks 农作物产品的贸易有助于减轻全球硝酸盐淋失风险

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103074

Xuchong Chen , Ling Liu , Yu Lu , Xuan Wang , Zhaohai Bai , Lin Ma

International crop trade plays a pivotal yet understudied role in mitigating global nitrate leaching, a major driver of water pollution. By analyzing 59 years of data (1961–2019) across 190 countries and 164 crops, we quantify how changes in global crop sourcing are associated with the average nitrate leaching intensity of production—defined at the national scale as kg NO₃⁻ per kcal or per kg protein. Our findings reveal that global trade reduced nitrate leaching by 53.6 Tg (8.4 %) and 130 Tg (20 %) for calorie- and protein-equivalent production in the past 59 years, respectively, primarily by relocating agricultural output to regions with lower leaching intensities. Exporting nations, such as the USA, Brazil, and Argentina, exhibited leaching rates 20–40 % below global averages, potentially due to better nitrogen management practices. Conversely, import-dependent countries like China and Japan sourced crops from higher-intensity systems, highlighting disparities in environmental governance. Post-2000, trade optimality improved as low-leaching exporters expanded, yet geopolitical fragmentation and climate risks threaten these gains. We propose integrating leaching intensity metrics into trade agreements and bolstering sustainable practices to align food security with water quality goals. This study underscores trade’s dual role as a catalyst for environmental mitigation and a source of systemic risk, offering actionable pathways to safeguard freshwater ecosystems within planetary boundaries.

国际作物贸易在减轻全球硝酸盐淋滤（水污染的主要驱动因素）方面发挥着关键但尚未得到充分研究的作用。通过分析190个国家和164种作物59年（1961-2019年）的数据，我们量化了全球作物来源的变化与生产的平均硝酸盐淋失强度（在国家尺度上定义为每千卡或每公斤蛋白质每公斤NO3 -）之间的关系。我们的研究结果表明，在过去的59年中，全球贸易主要通过将农业产出转移到浸出强度较低的地区，分别减少了53.6 Tg（8.4%）和130 Tg（20%）的热量和蛋白质当量生产的硝酸盐浸出。出口国家，如美国、巴西和阿根廷，其淋滤率比全球平均水平低20 - 40%，这可能是由于更好的氮管理措施。相反，中国和日本等依赖进口的国家从强度更高的系统采购作物，凸显了环境治理方面的差异。2000年后，随着低浸出率出口国的扩大，贸易最优性得到改善，但地缘政治碎片化和气候风险威胁着这些成果。我们建议将浸出强度指标纳入贸易协定，并加强可持续实践，使粮食安全与水质目标保持一致。这项研究强调了贸易作为环境缓解催化剂和系统性风险来源的双重作用，为在地球边界内保护淡水生态系统提供了可行的途径。

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引用次数: 0

Bridging extreme climate risks, financial precarity, and adaptation gaps: Advancing inclusive adaptation in rainfed agricultural systems 弥合极端气候风险、金融不稳定和适应差距：推进雨养农业系统的包容性适应

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-10-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103073

Van Touch , Ariane Utomo , De Li Liu , Nicholas Harrigan , Le-Anne Bannan , Panhaleak Chay , Caitlin Finlayson , Kirt Hainzer , Andrew McGregor , Katharine McKinnon , Lita Mom , Sophanara Phan , Pherom Song , Daniel K.Y. Tan , Thong Anh Tran , Saroeut Yong , Brian R. Cook

The intensification of extreme climate events is no longer a distant threat but is a pressing, global reality for smallholders. This study unpacks the complex interconnections among extreme climate events, perceived risks, and financial constraints to adaptation by integrating multi-source evidence – from historical climate trends and downscaled climate projections from 25 General Circulation Models to household census data from 996 smallholder households in Northwest Cambodia’s rainfed agricultural region. Employing statistical modelling, change detection, trend analysis, and correlation assessments, this study uncovers intensifying and shifting patterns in wet and dry spells, uncovering their cascading effects on smallholder rainfed agricultural productivity. These findings reveal a worsening pattern of extreme wet and dry spells. Prolonged wet periods are increasing risks of flooding, soil erosion, and nutrient leaching, while prolonged dry spells lasting up to 35 days threaten agricultural productivity and food security. Climate projections under SSP245 and SSP585 indicate increased intensification of these extremes, with wet spells lengthening at three times the rate under high-emissions scenarios and dry spells becoming shorter yet more severe. The majority of smallholders perceive intense rainfall and agricultural drought as the most pressing climate risks, aligning with observed trends, while financial constraints emerge as a critical barrier to adaptation. These findings underscore the pressing need for an interdisciplinary approach that integrates climate science, socio-economic realities, and policy frameworks. Advancing inclusive, systems-level adaptation requires expanding access to climate finance, risk-sharing mechanisms, and extension services, alongside strengthening climate literacy and early warning systems. This study contributes to global adaptation discourse by offering actionable insights to inform equitable, context-specific policies that enhance smallholder resilience to climate extremes.

极端气候事件的加剧不再是遥远的威胁，而是小农面临的紧迫的全球现实。本研究通过整合多来源证据，揭示了极端气候事件、感知风险和适应的财政限制之间的复杂相互关系，这些证据包括历史气候趋势和25个环流模型的缩小规模的气候预测，以及柬埔寨西北部雨养农业地区996个小农家庭的住户普查数据。通过统计建模、变化检测、趋势分析和相关性评估，本研究揭示了干湿期的加剧和变化模式，揭示了它们对小农雨养农业生产力的级联效应。这些发现揭示了极端干湿天气的恶化模式。长时间的雨季增加了洪水、土壤侵蚀和养分流失的风险，而持续长达35天的干旱期则威胁着农业生产力和粮食安全。SSP245和SSP585下的气候预估表明，这些极端事件的加剧程度有所增加，在高排放情景下，湿润期的延长速度是高排放情景下的三倍，干旱期变得更短但更严重。大多数小农认为强降雨和农业干旱是最紧迫的气候风险，这与观察到的趋势一致，而资金限制成为适应的关键障碍。这些发现强调，迫切需要一种跨学科的方法，将气候科学、社会经济现实和政策框架结合起来。推进包容性的系统级适应需要扩大气候融资、风险分担机制和推广服务的可及性，同时加强气候素养和预警系统。本研究通过提供可操作的见解，为提高小农对极端气候的抵御能力的公平、因地制宜的政策提供信息，从而为全球适应话语做出贡献。

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引用次数: 0

Supporting climate resilient development planning − a dynamic adaptive pathways based approach and an illustrative case from Cork City, Ireland 支持气候适应型发展规划——基于动态适应性路径的方法和爱尔兰科克市的一个说明性案例

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103070

Gaby S. Langendijk , Sadie McEvoy , Denise McCullagh , Marjolijn Haasnoot

To achieve climate resilient societies, climate adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable development (AMD) are all necessary. The concept of “climate resilient development pathways” (CRDP) recognizes this as intertwined challenges. However, no systematic approach exists for the creation and appraisal of CRDP that integrates adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable development over time, and addresses the interactions between these policy objectives. Building upon Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning (DAPP), this paper presents a decision analysis approach for integrating CRDP policy objectives in Climate Resilient Adaptive Pathways Planning, or CRDAPP. Key additions in this approach are: a) using visioning to design CRD strategies for managing pathways complexity; b) introducing target points for sustainable development and climate mitigation action setting, to help sequence measures into alternative pathways, alongside traditional performance thresholds; and c) defining types of adaptation, mitigation and development interactions to systematically evaluate actions and pathways. We test the approach in an illustrative case study in Cork City, Ireland. The CRDAPP steps are carried out for the city, with multiple pathways designed and critical decisions over time identified. The resulting CRDAPP analysis provides insights into the range of options for Cork on how to combine mitigation, adaptation, and sustainable development actions over time, to work toward different future states of the city. CRDAPP can support decisionmakers to better align adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable development action into their planning processes.

为了实现气候适应型社会，气候适应、减缓和可持续发展都是必要的。“气候适应型发展路径”（CRDP）的概念认识到这是相互交织的挑战。然而，目前还没有系统的方法来创建和评估综合适应、减缓和可持续发展的CRDP，并解决这些政策目标之间的相互作用。本文在动态适应路径规划（DAPP）的基础上，提出了一种决策分析方法，将CRDP政策目标整合到气候适应性路径规划（CRDAPP）中。该方法的关键补充是：a)使用视觉来设计管理路径复杂性的CRD策略；B)引入可持续发展和气候缓解行动设定的目标点，以帮助将各项措施与传统绩效阈值一起纳入备选途径；c)确定适应、减缓和发展相互作用的类型，以系统地评估行动和途径。我们在爱尔兰科克市的一个说明性案例研究中测试了这种方法。CRDAPP的步骤是针对城市进行的，设计了多种途径，并随着时间的推移确定了关键决策。由此产生的CRDAPP分析为科克提供了一系列选择，了解如何将缓解、适应和可持续发展行动结合起来，朝着城市的不同未来状态努力。CRDAPP可以支持决策者更好地将适应、减缓和可持续发展行动纳入其规划进程。

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引用次数: 0

Mapping the solution space for local adaptation under global change: An test of concept for the Vietnamese Mekong delta 绘制全球变化下地方适应的解决方案空间：越南湄公河三角洲的概念测试

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-10-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103071

Frances E. Dunn , Marjolijn Haasnoot , Haomiao Du , Star Karabil , Philip S.J. Minderhoud , Vincent Schippers , Murray Scown , Annisa Triyanti , Trang Vu , Hans Middelkoop

Current and projected environmental changes are complex and unprecedented in the context of modern societies. Effective adaptation strategies must consider constraining and enabling factors from both physical and societal aspects, as well as associated uncertainties at different points in time. Here we present a multidisciplinary method to quantify the solution space for individual adaptation measures—a conceptual space describing the feasibility of effectively implementing an adaptation measure, bounded by physical and societal constraints. Solution spaces can be projected over time under different scenarios and for multiple adaptation measures to identify what measures are available at any point, when the solution space changes (enabling or disabling choices), and what can be done to expand the space. We demonstrate the method for an illustrative case study of the coastal Mekong delta in Vietnam, an area with intense overlapping drivers of relative sea-level rise increasing coastal flooding. We consider three adaptation measures (mangroves, dikes, retreat) over the 21st century. The implementation reveals critical conditions for adaptation strategies, and when they might become infeasible without enabling actions. Our novel systematic approach can be implemented in real-world cases using data from the specific case of interest to assess the feasibility of measures determined by the (bio)physical, socio-economic, governance and legislation context, and provides insight into adaptation limitations and measures to maintain and/or expand the solution space. Such a multi-dimensional assessment is challenging due to the identification of critical conditions for many different dimensions, but is valuable to evaluate adaptation potential and design adaptive pathways plans to deal with uncertain changing conditions.

在现代社会的背景下，当前和预计的环境变化是复杂和前所未有的。有效的适应战略必须考虑来自自然和社会方面的制约和促进因素，以及不同时间点的相关不确定性。在这里，我们提出了一种多学科方法来量化个体适应措施的解决方案空间——一个描述有效实施适应措施的可行性的概念空间，受到物理和社会约束的限制。可以在不同场景下对解决方案空间进行随时间的预测，并针对多种适应措施确定在解决方案空间发生变化（启用或禁用选择）时在任一点上可用的措施，以及可以采取哪些措施来扩展空间。我们以越南沿海湄公河三角洲为例，对该方法进行了示范研究，该地区相对海平面上升的驱动因素叠加强烈，导致沿海洪水增加。我们考虑了21世纪的三种适应措施（红树林、堤防、退耕）。实施情况揭示了适应战略的关键条件，以及如果不采取扶持行动，适应战略何时可能变得不可行的情况。我们的新系统方法可以在实际案例中实施，使用来自特定案例的数据来评估由（生物）物理、社会经济、治理和立法背景决定的措施的可行性，并提供对适应限制和维持和/或扩大解决方案空间的措施的见解。这种多维评估具有挑战性，因为需要识别许多不同维度的关键条件，但对于评估适应潜力和设计适应路径计划以应对不确定的变化条件是有价值的。

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引用次数: 0

Adaptive flood risk management: A decision support system integrating deep learning, digital twins, and economic risk assessment 自适应洪水风险管理：集成深度学习、数字孪生和经济风险评估的决策支持系统

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103069

Miia Chabot , Jean-Louis Bertrand

Floods are among the most destructive climate-related disasters, with their frequency and severity increasing due to climate change and urban expansion. In response to rising claims and insufficient adaptation measures, insurers are progressively withdrawing from high-risk areas, thereby shifting the responsibility for risk management to businesses and municipalities, who must either implement their own solutions or resort to self-insurance. Effective flood risk management requires accurate forecasting, robust financial impact assessments, and decision support systems (DSS) to inform adaptation strategies. Within the framework of the European Union (EU) Floods Directive, this study develops an integrated, AI-powered DSS that combines deep learning-based flood forecasting (ConvLSTM models), economic vulnerability modelling (Joint Research Centre methodology), digital twin simulations, and predictive analytics to support data-driven adaptation planning. The framework was initially applied to assess pluvial, fluvial, and coastal flood risks in the coastal city of Nice, France, and subsequently extended to over 100 public and private sites across three urban municipalities. The findings demonstrate that this methodology improves the accuracy of risk assessments and provides a structured basis for capital allocation, insurability evaluation, and the optimization of adaptation investments. The multi-site deployment revealed significant governance, legal, and behavioural constraints, with public authorities and family-owned businesses responding differently despite comparable risk information. This research shows that integrating AI and digital twin technologies advances the EU Floods Directive’s objectives by enhancing risk mapping, preparedness, and transparency, while supporting public–private partnerships and extending protection to vulnerable populations at risk of losing insurance coverage.

洪水是最具破坏性的气候相关灾害之一，由于气候变化和城市扩张，洪水发生的频率和严重程度都在增加。为了应对索赔的增加和适应措施的不足，保险公司正在逐步退出高风险地区，从而将风险管理的责任转移给企业和市政当局，它们必须实施自己的解决方案或诉诸自我保险。有效的洪水风险管理需要准确的预测、稳健的财务影响评估和决策支持系统（DSS）来为适应战略提供信息。在欧盟（EU）洪水指令的框架内，本研究开发了一个集成的人工智能驱动的DSS，该DSS结合了基于深度学习的洪水预报（ConvLSTM模型）、经济脆弱性建模（联合研究中心方法）、数字孪生模拟和预测分析，以支持数据驱动的适应规划。该框架最初用于评估法国尼斯沿海城市的雨洪、河流和沿海洪水风险，随后扩展到三个城市的100多个公共和私人场所。研究结果表明，该方法提高了风险评估的准确性，为资本配置、可保性评估和适应性投资优化提供了结构化的基础。多地点部署显示了重大的治理、法律和行为约束，尽管风险信息相似，但公共当局和家族企业的反应却不同。这项研究表明，人工智能和数字孪生技术的整合通过加强风险测绘、准备和透明度，同时支持公私伙伴关系，并将保护范围扩大到有可能失去保险覆盖的弱势群体，从而推进了欧盟《洪水指令》的目标。

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引用次数: 0

Mitigation deterrence and unrealistic expectations: the future costs of forest carbon offsets 减缓、威慑和不切实际的期望：森林碳抵消的未来成本

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-09-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103068

Camilla Moioli , Laurent Drouet , Dominik Roeser , Johannes Emmerling , Hisham Zerriffi

This study examines the economic and societal impacts of using Forest Carbon Offsets (FCO) as a negative emissions technology in climate mitigation strategies. FCO includes afforestation, reforestation, and reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) initiatives aimed at achieving global climate targets, such as limiting temperature rise to 2 °C by 2100. Despite their potential, challenges such as the impermanence of carbon storage, overestimation of carbon removal, and mitigation deterrence—where reliance on FCO reduces other climate actions—persist. Using the WITCH integrated assessment model, this study analyzes the effects of FCO on energy sector investments, carbon pricing, and mitigation costs under scenarios with perfect foresight, myopic behavior, and varying degrees of forest carbon loss (FCL). Results indicate that heavy reliance on FCO leads to mitigation deterrence, with renewable and carbon capture investments decreasing by 8.6 % and 31 %, respectively, while fossil fuel investments increase by 1 %. Scenarios with 100 % FCL by 2045 could increase global GDP loss by 0.5 percentage points, surpassing the costs of not using FCO. Non-OECD countries, more vulnerable with lower economic resilience, could face mitigation costs up to 1.7 percentage points higher than OECD countries in similar FCL scenarios, raising equity concerns in climate policy. This research underscores the need for careful FCO management, accurate carbon sequestration estimates, and equitable policy frameworks to prevent moral hazards and ensure effective climate action. Clear definitions of which emissions can be offset versus those requiring direct reduction are essential to prevent over-reliance on offsets and maintain a balanced mitigation approach.

本研究考察了在气候减缓战略中使用森林碳抵消（FCO）作为负排放技术的经济和社会影响。FCO包括植树造林、再造林和减少森林砍伐和退化（REDD）排放倡议，旨在实现全球气候目标，如到2100年将气温上升限制在2°C以内。尽管它们具有潜力，但诸如碳储存的非永久性、对碳去除的高估以及减缓威慑等挑战仍然存在——在这些方面，对外交事务部的依赖减少了其他气候行动。本文利用WITCH综合评估模型，分析了完全预见、短视行为和不同程度森林碳损失情景下，FCO对能源部门投资、碳定价和减排成本的影响。结果表明，对FCO的严重依赖导致减缓威慑，可再生能源和碳捕获投资分别减少8.6%和31%，而化石燃料投资增加1%。到2045年，100%使用FCO的情景可能会使全球GDP损失增加0.5个百分点，超过不使用FCO的成本。非经合组织国家更加脆弱，经济复原力较低，在类似的FCL情景下，它们面临的缓解成本可能比经合组织国家高出1.7个百分点，这引发了对气候政策公平性的担忧。这项研究强调，需要谨慎的外交事务部管理、准确的碳封存估算和公平的政策框架，以防止道德风险，确保有效的气候行动。明确界定哪些排放可以抵消，哪些排放需要直接减少，这对于防止过度依赖抵消和保持平衡的缓解办法至关重要。

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