Global Environmental Change最新文献

Green financial sector initiatives, including green macroprudential policies, green monetary policies, and green public co-funding, could play an important role in the low-carbon transition by supporting countries in the implementation of their climate objectives. This paper analyzes how green financial sector initiatives could enable the scaling up of green investments while avoiding unintended effects on macroeconomic and financial stability. For each green financial sector initiative, the paper identifies its entry point in the economy, the transmission channels to banks’ investment decisions in terms of availability and cost of capital for high- and low-carbon goods, and the resulting impacts on output and greenhouse gas emissions. Building on these insights, the paper develops a theory of change about the role of green financial sector initiatives for climate mitigation, identifying the criteria for applicability and conditions to maximize their impact. It discusses specifically the application of the theory of change to the low-carbon transition in coal and carbon intensive regions in the context of the European net zero climate objective.

Projecting migration is challenging, due to the context-specific and discontinuous relations between migration and the socioeconomic and environmental conditions that drive this process. Here, we investigate the usefulness of Machine Learning (ML) Random Forest (RF) models to develop three net migration scenarios in South Asia by 2050 based on historical patterns (2001–2019). The model for the direction of net migration reaches an accuracy of 75%, while the model for the magnitude of migration in percentage reaches an R² value of 0.44. The variable importance is similar for both models: temperature and built-up land are of primary importance for explaining net migration, aligning with previous research. In all scenarios we find hotspots of in-migration North-western India and hotspots of out-migration in eastern and northern India, parts of Nepal and Sri Lanka, but with disparities across scenarios in other areas. These disparities underscore the challenge of obtaining consistent results from different approaches, which complicates drawing firm conclusions about future migration trajectories. We argue that the application of multi-model approaches is a useful avenue to project future migration dynamics, and to gain insights into the uncertainty and range of plausible outcomes of these processes.

Natural floating objects (NLOGs) are a major component of the habitat of pelagic species. Since the 1990s, the number of floating objects in the open ocean has increased greatly as a result of the introduction of drifting fish aggregating devices (DFADs) by the industrial tropical tuna purse seine vessels. These changes, and their potential impacts on the species that associate with floating objects, remain poorly understood. If the habitat modifications induced by DFADs have been recently characterized and quantified, the impact of other human activities on the number of floating objects is poorly studied. Relying on lagrangian simulations at the scale of the whole Indian Ocean, from 2000 to 2019, we assess the potential modifications of the pelagic surface habitat that could originate from forest cover change and climate variations. We develop several scenarios, based on coastal and river forest cover, precipitations and river discharge, to simulate densities of NLOGs. Our results suggest no significant increase in average NLOG densities in the ocean and highlight important regional and seasonal variations of these densities driven by both forest cover change and precipitations. These preliminary findings underscore the limited understanding of this critical element of pelagic species habitat. Therefore, there is pressing need to intensify monitoring efforts for pelagic species habitat and raise awareness about potential impacts of habitat modifications on tuna and other pelagic species.

This paper analyses the unique hybrid governance of Brazil’s Amazon Soy Moratorium (ASM) in regulating soybean production in the Amazon, where private actors have created a state-like ban on commodity production to reduce deforestation that goes beyond national law. Despite existing research regarding impact assessment, the study aims to fill knowledge gaps in explaining the ASM’s alliance-building processes, its longstanding maintenance, and its potential for regulatory replicability. Informed by the application of the Baptist and Bootlegger political economic theory of regulation and empirical data from qualitative interviews and document analysis, we provide an actor-centered explanation of the design, adoption, and maintenance of the ASM over a 19-year timeframe. Our results show how NGOs and businesses had opposite motivations and negotiated their roles to form a successful strategic alliance, reinforced by the inclusion of third parties (e.g., technical and governmental actors) to assist in its monitoring and transparency. Developed as an exclusive private market regulation, the ASM agreement, however, relies on a policy mix: private and public actors play a role in implementation, which includes assisting and relying on existing public policies, instruments, and official data. This policy mix was necessary for the ASM’s noteworthy hybrid and long-term governance. Its successful formation in 2006 was enabled by factors including an economic crisis, foreign pressure linked with national enforcement failure, and, most importantly, the Amazon scope. Our analysis shows who gains or loses from the regulatory design. Furthermore, we shed light on the biggest regulatory spillover, to the Cerrado, where the failed attempt at replicability emphasizes the regulatory uniqueness of the ASM. The study concludes with a discussion of what will help or hinder the ASM’s longevity, providing lessons for similar regulatory mechanisms on forest-risk agricultural production, such as EU’s recent Regulation on Deforestation-free Products.

The empirical study aims to examine how residents perceive and respond to air pollution in their daily lives, whether they use mobility as an adaptation strategy to avoid or mitigate their exposure, and how socioeconomic and demographic factors modify such responses in mobility. To this end, this study conducts an analysis in the city of Chengdu using a mixed-method approach combining surveys and large-scale mobile phone data. It is found that most at-risk individuals take protective measures, and some choose to change mobility patterns to protect themselves from exposure to air pollution. Regression results suggest that engagement with air quality information and the perceived effectiveness of protective measures are the most important predictors of human mobility changes in response to air pollution. The use of mobility as an adaptation strategy occurs despite the availability of in-situ strategies in general, while low-cost and effective in-situ adaptation choices and high-cost mobility strategies are considered as substitutes. Using changes in origin–destination trips in Sichuan generated from 5,393,739 cellphone users in Chengdu, this study reveals that an increase in the difference of the air quality index at origin versus at destination is associated with more trips from the origin to the destination, and travelers are more sensitive to air quality at origin that drives them to escape from the polluted areas. The findings suggest the (re)production of inequality and marginalization of some population groups in hazard adaptation.

Water security remains a critical global development challenge, compounded by persistent public funding shortfalls. Society urgently needs to identify opportunities for innovative private sector engagement in water security solutions. To identify feasible and impactful solutions, quantitative tools are needed to delineate complex environmental and socioeconomic water challenges and prioritize private sector investment opportunity spaces to address these challenges. We introduce the first global and regional-scale maps showing where threats to water security coincide with private sector opportunities to address them. The successful deployment of water solutions is contingent upon the societal and governance landscape that underpins a nation’s capacity to support sustainable water threat interventions and water-related business activities. By delineating areas with substantial pressures on water resources and assessing nations’ enabling environments to support private sector investments, we find nearly two-thirds of the world’s population could benefit from private sector interventions today, with middle income countries realizing the greatest benefits. In the face of global economic development and climate change, such solutions will become increasingly essential in future decades.

Cases of climate maladaptation are increasingly documented. Its identification and redressal has become a priority for researchers and policymakers concerned with climate vulnerability reduction. The ability to address climate maladaptation hinges on being open to its diverse causes, manifestations, and impacts. This study argues that climate maladaptation analyses are dominated by an “interactional ontology”—the understanding that it can be explained as an observable outcome from how separate social, economic, and political systems interact in moments of time. Consequently, efforts to curb climate maladaptation often target the institutional contexts (e.g., rules, regulations) understood as enabling adaptation practices to aggravate climate risks. But this only captures a partial aspect of climate maladaptation, neglecting underlying causes and processes. We argue a “relational ontology” can complement the “why and how” of maladaptation. A relational ontology understands climate maladaptation as an evolving process constituted through dynamic material and discursive relations, versus an observable outcome from separately interacting systems. By analyzing how adaptation initiatives are related to, framed, and politicized, assembly processes are rendered visible. To demonstrate this, we study the Government of Maharashtra’s (India) Jalyukt Shivar Abhiyan, a program aimed at increasing water conservation to “free” 20,000 villages from drought impacts. From our theorization and empirical case, we discuss how a relational ontology contributes to debates in the climate maladaptation literature and invites approaches for mitigating this phenomenon.

As planned relocation becomes an increasingly utilized climate adaptation strategy, guidance for effective practice consistently emphasizes the importance of “community” engagement throughout relocation planning, decision-making, and implementation. Yet “community” is not a monolith operating in consensus, where engagement is achieved simply through the interaction of internal and external actors. To move beyond this binary paradigm where community engagement is a box to be checked, we offer a conceptual framework with three key questions for consideration for those operationalizing community engagement strategies in relocation policy and practice. 1) Who constitutes the community in planned relocation? 2) Who facilitates planned relocation? 3) What is meaningful community engagement? As part of this framework, we introduce the overlooked role of actors bridging community and facilitation worlds, here called intermediaries, and how they can enhance or hinder meaningful engagement. Finally, we explore novel approaches for researchers and practitioners to advance context-specific engagement before, during, and after climate-related relocation processes to promote genuine self-determination among those relocating.

Adaptive pathways planning is an approach that maps the solution space over time to inform decision making under uncertainty. Since its first applications to climate change adaptation in the ’10s several studies and practical applications have used and extended the approach and discussed its benefits, limits, and complexity. What have we learned from a decade of adaptive pathways studies? This paper elaborates lessons learned on the use, value and weaknesses of adaptive pathways approaches for decision making using a set of guiding questions related to the decision context, the methods used, and contributions to decision making. Based on our experience and literature review, we find that: a) adaptive pathways analyses have been applied widely and are moving from theory to practice; b) an adaptive pathways analysis can be tailored and typically follows a staged approach; c) methods include narratives, impact models, and stakeholder participation tools; d) the complexity of adaptive pathways as a result of multiple actors, values, hazards, and actions at various scales for different purposes is a challenge, and this is increasingly considered through various extensions and combinations with other approaches. Ways forward to address weaknesses and current challenges include: accounting for coevolution between multiple actors across different scales (e.g., through interactive and multilevel pathways) and combining an adaptive pathways analysis with visioning and backcasting approaches for transformative adaptation and operationalizing climate resilient development pathways. To enable further applications in practice, it is important that experiences are shared and governance issues (e.g. long-term planning and funding) addressed.

The Western Wildlife Corridor (WWC) in Ghana’s Northern Savannah ecological zone is a contested landscape where efforts to reverse widespread environmental degradation often conflict with local livelihood concerns and broader development objectives. Despite policy measures to devolve natural resource decision-making authority, poor environmental management, persistent socioeconomic challenges, and increasingly limited livelihood opportunities for people living within the corridor prevail. This study investigates environmental degradation in the WWC and natural resource governance using information on stakeholder perceptions from stakeholder workshops, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews. We also explore how natural resource management might be strengthened to better deliver social, economic, and environmental goals. We found that despite a history of contestation, stakeholders were able to agree upon specific issues of common concern and generate a collaborative vision for the WWC landscape. Transitioning toward such a vision requires significant investment in strengthening current governance structures and building natural resource management capacity within the corridor and beyond. Furthermore, persistent challenges of conflicting stakeholder objectives and issues related to coordination, corruption, and non-inclusion in decision-making about natural resources must be addressed to advance progress. Stakeholders were able to formulate specific recommendations and a participatory theory of change to inform the development of a sustainable landscape management plan and future evidence-based policy that could steer the WWC toward a more resilient and multifunctional system that equitably supports livelihoods, biodiversity, and wider economic development. The methods for inclusive engagement in environmental decision-making are extrapolatable to other contexts facing similar social-environmental challenges.