Global Environmental Change最新文献_第4页

How do developing countries estimate their climate finance needs under the Paris Agreement? 发展中国家如何估计其在《巴黎协定》下的气候资金需求？

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103087

Abdulrasheed Isah , Florian Egli , Anna Stünzi , Tobias Schmidt

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are central to the Paris Agreement, serving as both pledges of climate ambition and platforms for articulating climate finance needs. However, how developing countries quantify these needs and the influencing factors remain poorly understood. Using an inductive research design based on expert interviews, we identify domestic and international factors influencing how countries estimate finance needs in their NDCs. Political institutions and the strategic perceptions of policymakers regarding NDCs – either as negotiation tools or investment plans – influence the specificity of climate finance needs estimates. Limited technical capacity and stakeholder engagement are important constraints in several countries. Meanwhile, international factors such as negotiating groups and consultants contribute to more detailed costing of climate finance when enabled by supportive policy environments. We propose a typology describing the spectrum of NDC archetypes, reflecting the interaction between domestic and international factors, as well as bottom-up and top-down estimation approaches. Our findings underscore that climate finance quantification is both technical and political, with implications for transparency and resource mobilization potential of future NDCs. Policymakers should remove barriers to obtaining granular sectoral and climate data, demonstrate political commitment, and strengthen collaborations with subnational levels. Capacity-building initiatives should strengthen the institutional and stakeholder foundations of detailed NDCs. Climate finance consultants should prioritize knowledge transfer and sustained collaboration with domestic institutions.

国家自主贡献（NDCs）是《巴黎协定》的核心，既是气候雄心的承诺，也是阐明气候资金需求的平台。然而，发展中国家如何量化这些需求和影响因素仍然知之甚少。采用基于专家访谈的归纳研究设计，我们确定了影响各国如何估计其国家自主贡献资金需求的国内和国际因素。政治制度和决策者对国家自主贡献的战略认识——无论是作为谈判工具还是作为投资计划——都会影响气候融资需求估算的特殊性。在一些国家，有限的技术能力和利益攸关方参与是重要的制约因素。与此同时，在支持性政策环境的支持下，谈判小组和顾问等国际因素有助于更详细地计算气候融资成本。我们提出了一个描述NDC原型光谱的类型学，反映了国内和国际因素之间的相互作用，以及自下而上和自上而下的估计方法。我们的研究结果强调，气候资金量化既涉及技术层面，也涉及政治层面，对未来国家自主贡献的透明度和资源调动潜力都有影响。决策者应消除获取行业和气候数据的障碍，展示政治承诺，并加强与次国家层面的合作。能力建设倡议应加强详细的国家自主贡献的体制和利益攸关方基础。气候融资顾问应优先考虑知识转移和与国内机构的持续合作。

{"title":"How do developing countries estimate their climate finance needs under the Paris Agreement?","authors":"Abdulrasheed Isah , Florian Egli , Anna Stünzi , Tobias Schmidt","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103087","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103087","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are central to the Paris Agreement, serving as both pledges of climate ambition and platforms for articulating climate finance needs. However, how developing countries quantify these needs and the influencing factors remain poorly understood. Using an inductive research design based on expert interviews, we identify domestic and international factors influencing how countries estimate finance needs in their NDCs. Political institutions and the strategic perceptions of policymakers regarding NDCs – either as negotiation tools or investment plans – influence the specificity of climate finance needs estimates. Limited technical capacity and stakeholder engagement are important constraints in several countries. Meanwhile, international factors such as negotiating groups and consultants contribute to more detailed costing of climate finance when enabled by supportive policy environments. We propose a typology describing the spectrum of NDC archetypes, reflecting the interaction between domestic and international factors, as well as bottom-up and top-down estimation approaches. Our findings underscore that climate finance quantification is both technical and political, with implications for transparency and resource mobilization potential of future NDCs. Policymakers should remove barriers to obtaining granular sectoral and climate data, demonstrate political commitment, and strengthen collaborations with subnational levels. Capacity-building initiatives should strengthen the institutional and stakeholder foundations of detailed NDCs. Climate finance consultants should prioritize knowledge transfer and sustained collaboration with domestic institutions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103087"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145613584","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Participatory storyworld building for unlocking climate adaptation 构建参与式故事世界，解锁气候适应

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103054

Benjamin T. Pederick , Martin Potter , Hailey Cooperrider , Sidney Icarus , Donna Luckman , Rebecca Dahl , Mark Elliot , Trish Cave , Jason Tampake , Brett A. Bryan

Worldwide, local communities are experiencing increasing climate change impacts, for which they are underprepared, and which are predicted to further intensify into the future. Closing this knowledge action gap in local climate adaptation is a socio-political challenge, requiring social science solutions. Recognising the strategic value of local governance actors, we prototyped an innovative participatory storyworld building method with local government decision makers. This method narratively downscaled climate pathways to a collective place-based storyworld. Participants imagined and detailed an alternate version of their real community, presented along near future climate pathways, mapping features, validating climate risks, and scripting individual storylines. Storyworld building proved compelling and useful for a diverse cohort as an innovative and effective form of applied science storytelling that fosters collaboration across difference and discipline. We found that expressing climate change as a local storyworld makes climate science meaningful, increases feelings of agency, and establishes a multilateral flow of knowledge between climate science and local storylines. This method has since been implemented in several local councils, operationalised into online localisation workshops for local government staff and stakeholders, and is gathering momentum as a transferable method for local governments to engage and mobilise coordinated community climate action.

在世界范围内，当地社区正在经历越来越大的气候变化影响，他们对此准备不足，预计未来这种影响将进一步加剧。缩小当地气候适应方面的知识和行动差距是一项社会政治挑战，需要社会科学的解决方案。认识到地方治理参与者的战略价值，我们与地方政府决策者一起设计了一种创新的参与式故事世界构建方法。这种方法在叙事上将气候路径缩小到一个基于集体地点的故事世界。参与者想象并详细描述了他们真实社区的另一个版本，展示了近期的气候路径，绘制了特征，验证了气候风险，并编写了个人故事情节。作为一种创新和有效的应用科学讲故事的形式，故事世界的构建对于不同的群体来说是引人注目和有用的，它促进了跨差异和学科的合作。我们发现，将气候变化表达为一个地方故事世界，使气候科学变得有意义，增加了能动性，并在气候科学和地方故事情节之间建立了多边知识流动。此后，该方法已在几个地方议会实施，并在面向地方政府工作人员和利益相关者的在线本地化研讨会上实施，作为地方政府参与和动员协调一致的社区气候行动的可转让方法，该方法正在获得势头。

{"title":"Participatory storyworld building for unlocking climate adaptation","authors":"Benjamin T. Pederick , Martin Potter , Hailey Cooperrider , Sidney Icarus , Donna Luckman , Rebecca Dahl , Mark Elliot , Trish Cave , Jason Tampake , Brett A. Bryan","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103054","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103054","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Worldwide, local communities are experiencing increasing climate change impacts, for which they are underprepared, and which are predicted to further intensify into the future. Closing this knowledge action gap in local climate adaptation is a socio-political challenge, requiring social science solutions. Recognising the strategic value of local governance actors, we prototyped an innovative participatory storyworld building method with local government decision makers. This method narratively downscaled climate pathways to a collective place-based storyworld. Participants imagined and detailed an alternate version of their real community, presented along near future climate pathways, mapping features, validating climate risks, and scripting individual storylines. Storyworld building proved compelling and useful for a diverse cohort as an innovative and effective form of applied science storytelling that fosters collaboration across difference and discipline. We found that expressing climate change as a local storyworld makes climate science meaningful, increases feelings of agency, and establishes a multilateral flow of knowledge between climate science and local storylines. This method has since been implemented in several local councils, operationalised into online localisation workshops for local government staff and stakeholders, and is gathering momentum as a transferable method for local governments to engage and mobilise coordinated community climate action.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103054"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145096621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Heatwaves and violence against women: a spatial analysis of female homicides in Brazil 热浪与对妇女的暴力：巴西女性凶杀案的空间分析

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103085

Luan Marca , Marco Tulio Aniceto Franca , Jessica Antunes Oliveira , Kamila da Silva Baum

This study examines the association between heatwaves and female homicides in Brazil, using data from 5,341 municipalities (representing 95% of the country) from 2001 to 2021. Spatial econometric models are applied, and the results reveal a positive association between rising temperatures and the incidence of female homicides, with notable “hot spots” of domestic violence in the Northeast and Southeast regions. The preferred model explains approximately 43% of the variation in female homicides, reinforcing the robustness of the estimates. The research also shows that lower gender wage gaps and higher job stability are associated with reduced rates of female homicides. Overall, the findings indicate that climatic stressors such as heatwaves are associated with increased risks of violence against women, particularly in contexts of socioeconomic vulnerability. The study highlights that public policies aimed at addressing climate-related risks and promoting women’s economic empowerment may contribute to reducing this form of violence in a warming climate.

本研究利用2001年至2021年巴西5341个城市（占全国95%）的数据，研究了热浪与巴西女性凶杀案之间的关系。应用空间计量模型分析发现，气温上升与女性凶杀发生率呈正相关，东北和东南地区家庭暴力“热点”显著。首选模型解释了大约43%的女性凶杀案的差异，加强了估计的稳健性。研究还表明，性别工资差距的缩小和工作稳定性的提高与女性凶杀率的降低有关。总体而言，研究结果表明，热浪等气候压力因素与妇女遭受暴力侵害的风险增加有关，特别是在社会经济脆弱的背景下。该研究强调，旨在应对气候相关风险和促进妇女经济赋权的公共政策可能有助于在气候变暖的情况下减少这种形式的暴力。

{"title":"Heatwaves and violence against women: a spatial analysis of female homicides in Brazil","authors":"Luan Marca , Marco Tulio Aniceto Franca , Jessica Antunes Oliveira , Kamila da Silva Baum","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103085","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103085","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the association between heatwaves and female homicides in Brazil, using data from 5,341 municipalities (representing 95% of the country) from 2001 to 2021. Spatial econometric models are applied, and the results reveal a positive association between rising temperatures and the incidence of female homicides, with notable “hot spots” of domestic violence in the Northeast and Southeast regions. The preferred model explains approximately 43% of the variation in female homicides, reinforcing the robustness of the estimates. The research also shows that lower gender wage gaps and higher job stability are associated with reduced rates of female homicides. Overall, the findings indicate that climatic stressors such as heatwaves are associated with increased risks of violence against women, particularly in contexts of socioeconomic vulnerability. The study highlights that public policies aimed at addressing climate-related risks and promoting women’s economic empowerment may contribute to reducing this form of violence in a warming climate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103085"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145619735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Citizen science data can significantly improve predictions of potential ranges of non-charismatic species: a study on two freshwater sponges 公民科学数据可以显著提高对非魅力型物种潜在分布范围的预测：一项对两种淡水海绵的研究

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103056

Łukasz Dylewski , Radosław Puchałka , Joanna T. Bialas , Katarína Fogašová , Zuzanna Jagiełło , Sandra Kaźmierczak , Henn Timm , Marcin Tobółka , Grzegorz Tończyk , Julia Zawadzka , Marcin K. Dyderski

Freshwater sponge species play crucial roles in aquatic ecosystems, yet their distribution patterns and responses to environmental changes remain insufficiently understood. Relying solely on platforms like GBIF for predicting species distribution may be inadequate and occasionally misleading due to biases and inaccuracies in the data. We investigated the distribution records and potential future distributions of two freshwater sponge species, Spongilla lacustris and Ephydatia fluviatilis, across Europe. Using various data sources, including the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), literature records, and internet naturalist data (iEcology), we compiled a comprehensive dataset comprising 1,330 records for S. lacustris and 9,854 records for E. fluviatilis. While GBIF records predominated in Western Europe, additional sources filled gaps in distribution records, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe. Species distribution models (SDMs) performed well, with S. lacustris exhibiting a broad climatic optimum range in Western and Northern Europe, while E. fluviatilis displayed a narrower range, primarily in northern regions. Future projections indicated a northward shift of freshwater sponge species in response to climate change, with potential contractions in Baltic Sea countries. These findings underscore that using diverse data sources such as scientific literature, field surveys, local ecological knowledge, and citizen science initiatives offers a more holistic view of species distribution patterns. Social media platforms also play a significant role in supplementing biodiversity data and engaging communities in conservation efforts.

淡水海绵物种在水生生态系统中发挥着至关重要的作用，但人们对其分布格局和对环境变化的响应却知之甚少。仅仅依靠GBIF这样的平台来预测物种分布可能是不够的，有时还会因为数据的偏差和不准确而产生误导。本文研究了两种淡水海绵物种——湖海绵和流海绵在欧洲的分布记录和潜在的未来分布。利用各种数据来源，包括全球生物多样性信息设施（GBIF）、文献记录和互联网自然学家数据（iEcology），我们编制了一个全面的数据集，其中包括湖泊沙蚕的1,330条记录和河流沙蚕的9,854条记录。虽然GBIF记录在西欧占主导地位，但其他来源填补了分布记录的空白，特别是在中欧和东欧。物种分布模型（SDMs）表现良好，湖螺在西欧和北欧表现出较宽的气候最佳范围，而河螺则表现出较窄的气候最佳范围，主要在北部地区。未来的预测表明，作为对气候变化的响应，淡水海绵物种将向北转移，波罗的海国家的淡水海绵物种可能会减少。这些发现强调，利用不同的数据来源，如科学文献、实地调查、当地生态知识和公民科学倡议，可以更全面地了解物种分布模式。社交媒体平台在补充生物多样性数据和吸引社区参与保护工作方面也发挥着重要作用。

{"title":"Citizen science data can significantly improve predictions of potential ranges of non-charismatic species: a study on two freshwater sponges","authors":"Łukasz Dylewski , Radosław Puchałka , Joanna T. Bialas , Katarína Fogašová , Zuzanna Jagiełło , Sandra Kaźmierczak , Henn Timm , Marcin Tobółka , Grzegorz Tończyk , Julia Zawadzka , Marcin K. Dyderski","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103056","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103056","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Freshwater sponge species play crucial roles in aquatic ecosystems, yet their distribution patterns and responses to environmental changes remain insufficiently understood. Relying solely on platforms like GBIF for predicting species distribution may be inadequate and occasionally misleading due to biases and inaccuracies in the data. We investigated the distribution records and potential future distributions of two freshwater sponge species, <em>Spongilla lacustris</em> and <em>Ephydatia fluviatilis</em>, across Europe. Using various data sources, including the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), literature records, and internet naturalist data (iEcology), we compiled a comprehensive dataset comprising 1,330 records for <em>S. lacustris</em> and 9,854 records for <em>E. fluviatilis</em>. While GBIF records predominated in Western Europe, additional sources filled gaps in distribution records, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe. Species distribution models (SDMs) performed well, with <em>S. lacustris</em> exhibiting a broad climatic optimum range in Western and Northern Europe, while <em>E. fluviatilis</em> displayed a narrower range, primarily in northern regions. Future projections indicated a northward shift of freshwater sponge species in response to climate change, with potential contractions in Baltic Sea countries. These findings underscore that using diverse data sources such as scientific literature, field surveys, local ecological knowledge, and citizen science initiatives offers a more holistic view of species distribution patterns. Social media platforms also play a significant role in supplementing biodiversity data and engaging communities in conservation efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103056"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145005035","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Understanding the role of pluralistic ignorance in biodiversity conservation: A research agenda 理解多元无知在生物多样性保护中的作用：一个研究议程

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103043

Sandra J. Geiger , Hirotaka Imada , Carya Maharja , Nattavudh Powdthavee , Valeria Vitale , Lei Zhang , Claudio D. Rosa , Zenith N.C. Delabrida , Kristian S. Nielsen , Franz Essl , Mathew P. White

Most people believe that biodiversity loss is human-caused, yet they may not realize how many others share this belief. Such collective misperceptions—known as pluralistic ignorance—may hinder individual and system changes required to address biodiversity loss. At the same time, reducing pluralistic ignorance may promote positive change. In this Perspective, we provide a brief overview of existing work on pluralistic ignorance about environmental topics and propose an agenda for impactful pluralistic ignorance research in the biodiversity domain. We highlight several research gaps and offer recommendations, including (a) investigating different forms of pluralistic ignorance, (b) improving our understanding of consequences and determinants, and (c) broadening the intervention toolkit to counter pluralistic ignorance for biodiversity conservation. To increase the Perspective’s practical applicability, we describe historical and contemporary case studies on pluralistic ignorance and biodiversity conservation from around the globe.

大多数人认为生物多样性的丧失是人为造成的，然而他们可能没有意识到有多少人也持这种观点。这种集体误解——被称为多元无知——可能会阻碍应对生物多样性丧失所需的个人和系统变革。同时，减少多元无知可能促进积极的变化。在这一观点中，我们简要概述了关于环境主题多元无知的现有工作，并提出了生物多样性领域有影响力的多元无知研究议程。我们强调了几个研究空白并提出了建议，包括(a)调查不同形式的多元无知，(b)提高我们对后果和决定因素的理解，以及(c)扩大干预工具包以对抗生物多样性保护的多元无知。为了增加视角的实际适用性，我们描述了来自全球的关于多元无知和生物多样性保护的历史和当代案例研究。

{"title":"Understanding the role of pluralistic ignorance in biodiversity conservation: A research agenda","authors":"Sandra J. Geiger , Hirotaka Imada , Carya Maharja , Nattavudh Powdthavee , Valeria Vitale , Lei Zhang , Claudio D. Rosa , Zenith N.C. Delabrida , Kristian S. Nielsen , Franz Essl , Mathew P. White","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103043","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103043","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Most people believe that biodiversity loss is human-caused, yet they may not realize how many others share this belief. Such collective misperceptions—known as pluralistic ignorance—may hinder individual and system changes required to address biodiversity loss. At the same time, reducing pluralistic ignorance may promote positive change. In this Perspective, we provide a brief overview of existing work on pluralistic ignorance about environmental topics and propose an agenda for impactful pluralistic ignorance research in the biodiversity domain. We highlight several research gaps and offer recommendations, including (a) investigating different forms of pluralistic ignorance, (b) improving our understanding of consequences and determinants, and (c) broadening the intervention toolkit to counter pluralistic ignorance for biodiversity conservation. To increase the Perspective’s practical applicability, we describe historical and contemporary case studies on pluralistic ignorance and biodiversity conservation from around the globe.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103043"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145005036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Synergistic long-range decision support for integrated green-grey flood management 绿灰洪水综合治理的协同远程决策支持

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103086

Ghazi Al-Rawas , Mohammad Reza Nikoo , Mohammad Reza Hassani , Seyyed Farid Mousavi Janbehsarayi , Mohammad Hossein Niksokhan

This study presents a novel framework for evaluating the long-term resiliency of flood management strategies in complex nonurban-urban watersheds, with a focus on the synergy between grey and green infrastructure. The methodology involves simulating hydrological conditions of both upstream and downstream areas using the SWMM model, followed by a two-stage scenario generation approach. The first stage optimizes the implementation of detention dams in the upstream nonurban region, while the second stage focuses on optimizing Green Infrastructure (GI) in the downstream urban area. By integrating grey and green flood control measures, a total of 2500 combined scenarios were generated and tested under extreme hurricane conditions to assess their resilience and economic feasibility. The results highlight that higher investments in both detention dams and GI significantly enhance system resiliency, and leads to faster recovery after flood events. Strategies with greater infrastructure investment maintained higher performance throughout sequential flood events, and exhibited smaller reductions in effectiveness during peak events. Conversely, lower-cost strategies experienced greater performance degradation. Then, using resilience performance threshold, we identified high-performing strategies and employed the Condorcet method to select the optimal scenario that balances long-term resiliency with cost-effectiveness. The selected strategy reduced peak flow at the urban area’s entrance by 85.7% and decreased local urban flood volume by 65.5%. Our research underscores the critical role of integrated grey-green infrastructure in achieving long-term flood resilience. Also, this framework provides decision-makers with actionable insights for designing cost-effective, high-resilience flood management strategies that consider both economic and community benefits.

本研究提出了一个新的框架，用于评估复杂的非城市-城市流域洪水管理策略的长期弹性，重点关注灰色和绿色基础设施之间的协同作用。该方法包括使用SWMM模型模拟上游和下游地区的水文条件，然后采用两阶段情景生成方法。第一阶段优化上游非城市区域滞洪坝的实施，第二阶段重点优化下游城市区域的绿色基础设施（GI）。通过整合灰色和绿色防洪措施，共生成了2500个组合方案，并在极端飓风条件下进行了测试，以评估其弹性和经济可行性。研究结果表明，对滞洪坝和地理特征的更高投资显著提高了系统的弹性，并导致洪水事件后更快的恢复。基础设施投资较大的策略在连续的洪水事件中保持较高的性能，并且在高峰事件期间显示出较小的有效性降低。相反，低成本策略的性能下降更大。然后，利用弹性绩效阈值，我们确定了高绩效策略，并采用Condorcet方法选择了平衡长期弹性和成本效益的最佳方案。所选择的策略使城市入口处的峰值流量减少了85.7%，使当地城市洪流量减少了65.5%。我们的研究强调了综合灰绿色基础设施在实现长期抗洪能力方面的关键作用。此外，该框架为决策者提供了可操作的见解，以设计成本效益高、高弹性的洪水管理策略，同时考虑到经济和社区效益。

{"title":"Synergistic long-range decision support for integrated green-grey flood management","authors":"Ghazi Al-Rawas , Mohammad Reza Nikoo , Mohammad Reza Hassani , Seyyed Farid Mousavi Janbehsarayi , Mohammad Hossein Niksokhan","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103086","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103086","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study presents a novel framework for evaluating the long-term resiliency of flood management strategies in complex nonurban-urban watersheds, with a focus on the synergy between grey and green infrastructure. The methodology involves simulating hydrological conditions of both upstream and downstream areas using the SWMM model, followed by a two-stage scenario generation approach. The first stage optimizes the implementation of detention dams in the upstream nonurban region, while the second stage focuses on optimizing Green Infrastructure (GI) in the downstream urban area. By integrating grey and green flood control measures, a total of 2500 combined scenarios were generated and tested under extreme hurricane conditions to assess their resilience and economic feasibility. The results highlight that higher investments in both detention dams and GI significantly enhance system resiliency, and leads to faster recovery after flood events. Strategies with greater infrastructure investment maintained higher performance throughout sequential flood events, and exhibited smaller reductions in effectiveness during peak events. Conversely, lower-cost strategies experienced greater performance degradation. Then, using resilience performance threshold, we identified high-performing strategies and employed the Condorcet method to select the optimal scenario that balances long-term resiliency with cost-effectiveness. The selected strategy reduced peak flow at the urban area’s entrance by 85.7% and decreased local urban flood volume by 65.5%. Our research underscores the critical role of integrated grey-green infrastructure in achieving long-term flood resilience. Also, this framework provides decision-makers with actionable insights for designing cost-effective, high-resilience flood management strategies that consider both economic and community benefits.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103086"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145657818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Mapping the solution space for local adaptation under global change: An test of concept for the Vietnamese Mekong delta 绘制全球变化下地方适应的解决方案空间：越南湄公河三角洲的概念测试

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103071

Frances E. Dunn , Marjolijn Haasnoot , Haomiao Du , Star Karabil , Philip S.J. Minderhoud , Vincent Schippers , Murray Scown , Annisa Triyanti , Trang Vu , Hans Middelkoop

Current and projected environmental changes are complex and unprecedented in the context of modern societies. Effective adaptation strategies must consider constraining and enabling factors from both physical and societal aspects, as well as associated uncertainties at different points in time. Here we present a multidisciplinary method to quantify the solution space for individual adaptation measures—a conceptual space describing the feasibility of effectively implementing an adaptation measure, bounded by physical and societal constraints. Solution spaces can be projected over time under different scenarios and for multiple adaptation measures to identify what measures are available at any point, when the solution space changes (enabling or disabling choices), and what can be done to expand the space. We demonstrate the method for an illustrative case study of the coastal Mekong delta in Vietnam, an area with intense overlapping drivers of relative sea-level rise increasing coastal flooding. We consider three adaptation measures (mangroves, dikes, retreat) over the 21st century. The implementation reveals critical conditions for adaptation strategies, and when they might become infeasible without enabling actions. Our novel systematic approach can be implemented in real-world cases using data from the specific case of interest to assess the feasibility of measures determined by the (bio)physical, socio-economic, governance and legislation context, and provides insight into adaptation limitations and measures to maintain and/or expand the solution space. Such a multi-dimensional assessment is challenging due to the identification of critical conditions for many different dimensions, but is valuable to evaluate adaptation potential and design adaptive pathways plans to deal with uncertain changing conditions.

在现代社会的背景下，当前和预计的环境变化是复杂和前所未有的。有效的适应战略必须考虑来自自然和社会方面的制约和促进因素，以及不同时间点的相关不确定性。在这里，我们提出了一种多学科方法来量化个体适应措施的解决方案空间——一个描述有效实施适应措施的可行性的概念空间，受到物理和社会约束的限制。可以在不同场景下对解决方案空间进行随时间的预测，并针对多种适应措施确定在解决方案空间发生变化（启用或禁用选择）时在任一点上可用的措施，以及可以采取哪些措施来扩展空间。我们以越南沿海湄公河三角洲为例，对该方法进行了示范研究，该地区相对海平面上升的驱动因素叠加强烈，导致沿海洪水增加。我们考虑了21世纪的三种适应措施（红树林、堤防、退耕）。实施情况揭示了适应战略的关键条件，以及如果不采取扶持行动，适应战略何时可能变得不可行的情况。我们的新系统方法可以在实际案例中实施，使用来自特定案例的数据来评估由（生物）物理、社会经济、治理和立法背景决定的措施的可行性，并提供对适应限制和维持和/或扩大解决方案空间的措施的见解。这种多维评估具有挑战性，因为需要识别许多不同维度的关键条件，但对于评估适应潜力和设计适应路径计划以应对不确定的变化条件是有价值的。

{"title":"Mapping the solution space for local adaptation under global change: An test of concept for the Vietnamese Mekong delta","authors":"Frances E. Dunn , Marjolijn Haasnoot , Haomiao Du , Star Karabil , Philip S.J. Minderhoud , Vincent Schippers , Murray Scown , Annisa Triyanti , Trang Vu , Hans Middelkoop","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103071","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103071","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Current and projected environmental changes are complex and unprecedented in the context of modern societies. Effective adaptation strategies must consider constraining and enabling factors from both physical and societal aspects, as well as associated uncertainties at different points in time. Here we present a multidisciplinary method to quantify the solution space for individual adaptation measures—a conceptual space describing the feasibility of effectively implementing an adaptation measure, bounded by physical and societal constraints. Solution spaces can be projected over time under different scenarios and for multiple adaptation measures to identify what measures are available at any point, when the solution space changes (enabling or disabling choices), and what can be done to expand the space. We demonstrate the method for an illustrative case study of the coastal Mekong delta in Vietnam, an area with intense overlapping drivers of relative sea-level rise increasing coastal flooding. We consider three adaptation measures (mangroves, dikes, retreat) over the 21st century. The implementation reveals critical conditions for adaptation strategies, and when they might become infeasible without enabling actions. Our novel systematic approach can be implemented in real-world cases using data from the specific case of interest to assess the feasibility of measures determined by the (bio)physical, socio-economic, governance and legislation context, and provides insight into adaptation limitations and measures to maintain and/or expand the solution space. Such a multi-dimensional assessment is challenging due to the identification of critical conditions for many different dimensions, but is valuable to evaluate adaptation potential and design adaptive pathways plans to deal with uncertain changing conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103071"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145263033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A novel approach to developing local flood vulnerability scenarios based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways framework: Sectoral risks and policy implications 基于共享社会经济路径框架的开发地方洪水脆弱性情景的新方法：部门风险和政策影响

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103079

Bien Thanh Vu , Olabisi S. Obaitor , Antje Katzschner , Lena C. Grobusch , Dominic Sett , Andrea Ortiz-Vargas , Michael Hagenlocher , Ulrike Schinkel , Felix Bachofer , Linh Khanh Hoang Nguyen , Matthias Garschagen

Developing locally tailored vulnerability scenarios is crucial for effective flood risk management, yet existing approaches often lack integration with long-term socioeconomic trajectories. To address this gap, the study introduces an innovative methodology that downscales global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and integrates them with current vulnerability data to create future vulnerability scenarios for key sectors. This approach is applied to Hue City, Central Vietnam as a case study, focusing on health, agriculture, transport, and water, to illustrate its practical application. The findings indicate that under SSP1, characterized by sustainable growth, socio-economic policies focused on sustainability lead to substantial vulnerability reductions across all sectors. Health systems become more resilient, sustainable agricultural practices minimize economic losses, and improved infrastructure reduces transport disruptions and water contamination risks. SSP2 reflects a continuation of current socio-economic trends, resulting in moderate improvements; however, incremental policy changes and resource constraints leave persistent vulnerabilities. In contrast, SSP3, marked by fragmented and poorly managed growth, exacerbates flood risks, where weak healthcare systems, fragile agricultural practices, inadequate transport infrastructure, and minimal water contamination controls intensify flood-related impacts. This study demonstrates the importance of mainstreaming socioeconomic dynamics into flood risk management and offers a transferable framework for scenario-based planning in diverse regional contexts. Future research should aim to quantify vulnerability trajectories, thereby enhancing resilience planning and supporting data-driven decision-making in flood-prone areas.

制定适合当地的脆弱性情景对于有效的洪水风险管理至关重要，但现有方法往往缺乏与长期社会经济轨迹的整合。为了解决这一差距，该研究引入了一种创新的方法，该方法缩小了全球共享社会经济路径（ssp）的规模，并将其与当前的脆弱性数据相结合，以创建关键部门的未来脆弱性情景。这一方法以越南中部顺化市为案例研究，重点放在卫生、农业、交通和水方面，以说明其实际应用。研究结果表明，在以可持续增长为特征的SSP1下，注重可持续性的社会经济政策导致所有部门的脆弱性大幅降低。卫生系统变得更有弹性，可持续的农业做法最大限度地减少经济损失，改善的基础设施减少了运输中断和水污染风险。SSP2反映了当前社会经济趋势的延续，导致适度改善；但是，增量策略更改和资源约束会留下持久的漏洞。相比之下，SSP3以分散和管理不善的增长为特征，加剧了洪水风险，其中薄弱的医疗体系、脆弱的农业实践、不充分的交通基础设施和最低限度的水污染控制加剧了与洪水相关的影响。该研究证明了将社会经济动态纳入洪水风险管理主流的重要性，并为不同区域背景下基于情景的规划提供了一个可转移的框架。未来的研究应致力于量化脆弱性轨迹，从而加强洪水易发地区的恢复力规划和支持数据驱动的决策。

{"title":"A novel approach to developing local flood vulnerability scenarios based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways framework: Sectoral risks and policy implications","authors":"Bien Thanh Vu , Olabisi S. Obaitor , Antje Katzschner , Lena C. Grobusch , Dominic Sett , Andrea Ortiz-Vargas , Michael Hagenlocher , Ulrike Schinkel , Felix Bachofer , Linh Khanh Hoang Nguyen , Matthias Garschagen","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103079","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103079","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Developing locally tailored vulnerability scenarios is crucial for effective flood risk management, yet existing approaches often lack integration with long-term socioeconomic trajectories. To address this gap, the study introduces an innovative methodology that downscales global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and integrates them with current vulnerability data to create future vulnerability scenarios for key sectors. This approach is applied to Hue City, Central Vietnam as a case study, focusing on health, agriculture, transport, and water, to illustrate its practical application. The findings indicate that under SSP1, characterized by sustainable growth, socio-economic policies focused on sustainability lead to substantial vulnerability reductions across all sectors. Health systems become more resilient, sustainable agricultural practices minimize economic losses, and improved infrastructure reduces transport disruptions and water contamination risks. SSP2 reflects a continuation of current socio-economic trends, resulting in moderate improvements; however, incremental policy changes and resource constraints leave persistent vulnerabilities. In contrast, SSP3, marked by fragmented and poorly managed growth, exacerbates flood risks, where weak healthcare systems, fragile agricultural practices, inadequate transport infrastructure, and minimal water contamination controls intensify flood-related impacts. This study demonstrates the importance of mainstreaming socioeconomic dynamics into flood risk management and offers a transferable framework for scenario-based planning in diverse regional contexts. Future research should aim to quantify vulnerability trajectories, thereby enhancing resilience planning and supporting data-driven decision-making in flood-prone areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103079"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145382577","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The politics of coastal erosion in Sicily: Concrete infrastructures and the economy of disaster 西西里岛海岸侵蚀的政治：混凝土基础设施和灾难经济

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103076

Silja Klepp

This paper analyses how coastal governance and coastal protection infrastructure in Sicily are driven by specific interests that produce and stabilise unsustainable coastal protection practices and contribute to a coastal ‘disaster capitalism’. The driving logics of the coastal ‘disaster economy’ are rooted in mafia socionatures and rationalities of speculation and are reinforced by the widespread belief that coastal protection requires large-scale cement infrastructure. This belief is based on a dualistic divide between nature and culture and on narratives of controlling the sea. As these narratives appear to be consensual in Sicily, unsustainable coastal protection infrastructures become not only possible, but publicly desirable. The article is based on an analytical lens of political ecology and on extensive ethnographic research. I have also developed a tentative transformative research approach. This approach is based on the idea of shaping more just and sustainable coastal futures through public engagement and through art-based methods. Together with photographer Barbara Dombrowski, our vision was to create a space where the issue of coastal erosion could be discussed with reference to the photographs. The photos were taken during a joint research trip and in collaboration with local people. Alongside the ethnographic analysis, the photographs offer a fresh perspective on coastal erosion, one that emphasises the political and economic interests of powerful actors rather than the engineering perspectives that otherwise dominate. The photographs are currently being exhibited at various locations in Sicily, alongside public panel discussions.

本文分析了西西里岛的海岸治理和海岸保护基础设施是如何受到特定利益的驱动的，这些利益产生并稳定了不可持续的海岸保护实践，并促成了沿海的“灾难资本主义”。沿海“灾难经济”的驱动逻辑植根于黑手党社会和投机的理性，并被普遍认为沿海保护需要大规模水泥基础设施的信念所强化。这种信念是基于自然与文化的二元分裂，以及控制海洋的叙事。由于这些叙述在西西里岛似乎是共识，不可持续的沿海保护基础设施不仅成为可能，而且成为公众的愿望。本文以政治生态学的分析视角和广泛的民族志研究为基础。我还开发了一种试探性的变革性研究方法。这种方法是基于通过公众参与和以艺术为基础的方法来塑造更公正和可持续的沿海未来的想法。与摄影师Barbara Dombrowski一起，我们的愿景是创造一个可以参考照片讨论海岸侵蚀问题的空间。这些照片是在一次联合研究旅行中与当地人合作拍摄的。除了民族志分析，这些照片还提供了一个关于海岸侵蚀的新视角，它强调了强大角色的政治和经济利益，而不是其他主导的工程视角。这些照片目前正在西西里岛的不同地点展出，同时还有公众小组讨论。

{"title":"The politics of coastal erosion in Sicily: Concrete infrastructures and the economy of disaster","authors":"Silja Klepp","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103076","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103076","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper analyses how coastal governance and coastal protection infrastructure in Sicily are driven by specific interests that produce and stabilise unsustainable coastal protection practices and contribute to a coastal ‘disaster capitalism’. The driving logics of the coastal ‘disaster economy’ are rooted in mafia <em>socionatures</em> and rationalities of speculation and are reinforced by the widespread belief that coastal protection requires large-scale cement infrastructure. This belief is based on a dualistic divide between nature and culture and on narratives of controlling the sea. As these narratives appear to be consensual in Sicily, unsustainable coastal protection infrastructures become not only possible, but publicly desirable. The article is based on an analytical lens of political ecology and on extensive ethnographic research. I have also developed a tentative transformative research approach. This approach is based on the idea of shaping more just and sustainable coastal futures through public engagement and through art-based methods. Together with photographer Barbara Dombrowski, our vision was to create a space where the issue of coastal erosion could be discussed with reference to the photographs. The photos were taken during a joint research trip and in collaboration with local people. Alongside the ethnographic analysis, the photographs offer a fresh perspective on coastal erosion, one that emphasises the political and economic interests of powerful actors rather than the engineering perspectives that otherwise dominate. The photographs are currently being exhibited at various locations in Sicily, alongside public panel discussions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103076"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145598647","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Emerging pathways in climate litigation: Transnational justice and the Global South 气候诉讼的新途径：跨国司法和全球南方

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103084

Harikrishnan Ramesh Varma , Rahul B. Hiremath , Ravi Sharma

The Global South asserts its influence in the global climate discourse, challenging entrenched power structures and advocating for equitable solutions to climate change. Climate litigation is increasingly being used as a tool to address climate-related harms. Traditional climate litigation frameworks narrowly define ‘Global South Docket’ as cases filed within domestic courts of the Global South, overlooking transnational cases that address harm in the Global South but are filed in international courts or Global North jurisdictions. To address this gap, we introduce the concept of a Latent Global South Docket, encompassing cases with significant ties to the Global South regardless of jurisdiction. Through the systematic clustering of 831 cases filed between 1994 and 2023, the study identifies the emerging pathways in transnational climate litigation that underline the critical intersection of climate justice and sustainable development.

全球南方主张其在全球气候话语中的影响力，挑战根深蒂固的权力结构，倡导公平解决气候变化问题。气候诉讼越来越多地被用作解决气候相关危害的工具。传统的气候诉讼框架将“全球南方诉讼”狭隘地定义为在全球南方国家的国内法院提起的案件，忽略了在国际法院或全球北方司法管辖区提起的涉及全球南方国家损害的跨国案件。为了解决这一差距，我们引入了潜在的全球南方摘要的概念，包括与全球南方有重大联系的案件，而不管管辖权如何。通过对1994年至2023年间提交的831起案件的系统聚类，该研究确定了跨国气候诉讼的新途径，这些途径强调了气候正义与可持续发展的关键交叉点。

引用次数: 0