Global Environmental Change最新文献_第5页

Participatory storyworld building for unlocking climate adaptation 构建参与式故事世界，解锁气候适应

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103054

Benjamin T. Pederick , Martin Potter , Hailey Cooperrider , Sidney Icarus , Donna Luckman , Rebecca Dahl , Mark Elliot , Trish Cave , Jason Tampake , Brett A. Bryan

Worldwide, local communities are experiencing increasing climate change impacts, for which they are underprepared, and which are predicted to further intensify into the future. Closing this knowledge action gap in local climate adaptation is a socio-political challenge, requiring social science solutions. Recognising the strategic value of local governance actors, we prototyped an innovative participatory storyworld building method with local government decision makers. This method narratively downscaled climate pathways to a collective place-based storyworld. Participants imagined and detailed an alternate version of their real community, presented along near future climate pathways, mapping features, validating climate risks, and scripting individual storylines. Storyworld building proved compelling and useful for a diverse cohort as an innovative and effective form of applied science storytelling that fosters collaboration across difference and discipline. We found that expressing climate change as a local storyworld makes climate science meaningful, increases feelings of agency, and establishes a multilateral flow of knowledge between climate science and local storylines. This method has since been implemented in several local councils, operationalised into online localisation workshops for local government staff and stakeholders, and is gathering momentum as a transferable method for local governments to engage and mobilise coordinated community climate action.

在世界范围内，当地社区正在经历越来越大的气候变化影响，他们对此准备不足，预计未来这种影响将进一步加剧。缩小当地气候适应方面的知识和行动差距是一项社会政治挑战，需要社会科学的解决方案。认识到地方治理参与者的战略价值，我们与地方政府决策者一起设计了一种创新的参与式故事世界构建方法。这种方法在叙事上将气候路径缩小到一个基于集体地点的故事世界。参与者想象并详细描述了他们真实社区的另一个版本，展示了近期的气候路径，绘制了特征，验证了气候风险，并编写了个人故事情节。作为一种创新和有效的应用科学讲故事的形式，故事世界的构建对于不同的群体来说是引人注目和有用的，它促进了跨差异和学科的合作。我们发现，将气候变化表达为一个地方故事世界，使气候科学变得有意义，增加了能动性，并在气候科学和地方故事情节之间建立了多边知识流动。此后，该方法已在几个地方议会实施，并在面向地方政府工作人员和利益相关者的在线本地化研讨会上实施，作为地方政府参与和动员协调一致的社区气候行动的可转让方法，该方法正在获得势头。

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引用次数: 0

De-energization as maladaptation: Uneven residential exposure to wildfire Public Safety Power Shutoffs and compound heat 作为不适应的断电：不均匀的住宅暴露于野火公共安全断电和复合热

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-09-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103067

Kate Burrows , Kathryn McConnell , Nora Louise Schwaller , Chantel F. Pheiffer

In response to growing levels of wildfire destruction, electric utility companies are adopting powerline de-energization as an adaptation strategy intended to prevent wildfire ignitions. While reducing wildfire risk, planned de-energizations also expose residents to electricity loss, potentially causing harmful consequences. We investigated the extent to which planned de-energization can be considered a form of maladaptation, in which an adaptive response to a climate-related hazard results in unintended, concurrent harms. To do so, we examined the co-occurrence of Public Safety Power Shutoffs (PSPSs) with extreme heat (temperature ≥ 32 °C) in California between October 2021 and September 2024. Our analysis revealed compound heat-PSPS outages throughout this period, including extreme temperatures exceeding 40 °C, during power shutoffs. Compound heat-PSPS events were geographically concentrated in census block groups with higher proportions of older adults and mobile home residents, both populations which may be at increased risk of heat-related morbidity and mortality. While they affected a relatively small proportion of customers de-energized by PSPSs, compound heat-PSPS outages raise concerns over extreme heat exposure when access to electricity-based cooling strategies is curtailed. Evaluating the maladaptive effects of institutional responses to climate change hazards is critical for comprehensively weighing both the benefits and harms of emerging adaptation strategies.

为了应对日益严重的野火破坏，电力公司正在采用输电线断电作为一种适应策略，旨在防止野火点燃。在减少野火风险的同时，计划中的断电也使居民面临电力损失，可能造成有害后果。我们调查了计划性断电在多大程度上可以被认为是一种适应不良的形式，在这种情况下，对气候相关危害的适应性反应会导致意想不到的、同时发生的危害。为此，我们研究了2021年10月至2024年9月期间加州极端高温（温度≥32°C）下公共安全停电（psp）的共同发生情况。我们的分析显示，在停电期间，复合热- psps中断，包括超过40°C的极端温度。复合热- psps事件在地理上集中在老年人和活动房屋居民比例较高的人口普查街区群体中，这两个人群可能面临与热相关的发病率和死亡率增加的风险。虽然它们影响了相对较小比例的被psps断电的客户，但复合热- psps停电引起了人们对极端高温暴露的担忧，因为电力冷却策略的使用受到限制。评估机构应对气候变化危害的不良影响对于全面权衡新出现的适应战略的利弊至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Location-specific climate and environmental benefits of China’s coal mining phase-down towards carbon neutrality 中国煤炭开采逐步减少碳中和的区位气候和环境效益

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-09-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103057

Hao Li , Tao Yang , Linman Li , Bin Lu , Tianzheng Zhang , Xiaolong Lu , Rui Peng , Zhaohua Wang

The coal mining industry, characterized by its high-intensity emissions of both greenhouse gases (GHGs) and pollutants, urgently requires a substantial transformation to tackle these challenges. Existing studies have given insufficient attention to location-specific phase-down of coal mining operations and the associated climate and environmental co-benefits. Here, this study constructs a comprehensive database encompassing 380 large coal mines in China, and then compile inventories of energy consumption, methane emissions and pollutant emissions for each coal mine from 2023 to 2060. Afterwards, this study integrates the technical and economic attributes to assess their retirement rankings. Four phase-down strategies are formulated in accordance with the coal demand trends towards carbon neutrality while the potential climate and environmental co-benefits are thoroughly evaluated. This study indicates that the reduction in both coal demand and emission intensity are crucial factors in alleviating environmental pressures and offer valuable insights into the location-specific phase-down strategies for the coal mining industry.

煤炭采矿业的特点是温室气体和污染物的高强度排放，迫切需要进行重大转型以应对这些挑战。现有的研究没有充分注意具体地点逐步减少煤炭开采作业以及有关的气候和环境的共同利益。在此，本研究构建了包含中国380个大型煤矿的综合数据库，并编制了各煤矿2023 - 2060年的能源消耗、甲烷排放和污染物排放清单。然后，本研究将技术属性和经济属性结合起来评估其退休排名。根据煤炭需求走向碳中和的趋势，制定了四项逐步淘汰战略，同时对潜在的气候和环境协同效益进行了全面评估。该研究表明，煤炭需求和排放强度的降低是缓解环境压力的关键因素，并为煤炭开采行业的具体地点逐步减少战略提供了有价值的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Status of global accumulation of marine debris 全球海洋垃圾堆积状况

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103058

Eranga K. Galappaththi , Jennifer D. Russell , Mitch Dolby , Thomas Newsome , Sithuni M. Jayasekara

The issue of marine debris pollution is a growing crisis, with detrimental effects on ecosystems, marine organisms, and human health. More than 800 coastal and marine species are affected, resulting in billions of dollars of economic losses each year. To better understand the dimensions of this challenge, it is important to establish a solid scientific knowledge base. This study aims to synthesize the global research and evidence of marine debris accumulation in coastal areas. Through a systematic literature review, we found that Europe and Asia are the primary regions where marine debris accumulation is studied, with the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans accounting for most of research. The majority of publications are by first authors from European and Asian institutions, with the US also contributing significantly. Most studies focus on the volume of marine debris, with general waste being the most studied type. Additionally, physical and environmental factors play a larger role than human-based factors in marine debris accumulation. Overall, there is a trend of increasing and relocating marine debris accumulation across all determining factors. We also identified important areas for future research to deepen our understanding of the factors influencing debris accumulation. In particular, there is a notable gap in the practical application of tools and methods for tracking and identifying marine debris, such as satellite remote sensing, specialized databases, and computational modeling approaches. The study findings offer vital insights for decision-making regarding marine debris accumulation, benefiting policymakers, researchers, and other stakeholders striving towards a more sustainable globe.

海洋垃圾污染问题是一个日益严重的危机，对生态系统、海洋生物和人类健康产生有害影响。800多种沿海和海洋物种受到影响，每年造成数十亿美元的经济损失。为了更好地了解这一挑战的规模，重要的是建立一个坚实的科学知识库。本研究旨在综合全球沿海地区海洋垃圾堆积的研究和证据。通过系统的文献回顾，我们发现欧洲和亚洲是海洋垃圾堆积研究的主要区域，其中大西洋和太平洋占研究的大部分。大多数出版物的第一作者来自欧洲和亚洲的机构，美国也贡献很大。大多数研究集中在海洋垃圾的体积上，一般垃圾是研究最多的类型。此外，物理和环境因素在海洋垃圾堆积中的作用大于人为因素。总体而言，在所有决定因素中，海洋垃圾堆积都有增加和迁移的趋势。我们还确定了未来研究的重要领域，以加深我们对影响碎屑堆积因素的理解。特别是，在跟踪和识别海洋碎片的工具和方法，如卫星遥感、专门数据库和计算建模方法的实际应用方面存在显著差距。研究结果为有关海洋垃圾堆积的决策提供了重要见解，使政策制定者、研究人员和其他利益相关者受益，努力实现更可持续的地球。

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引用次数: 0

Can zero deforestation agreements in the cattle sector protect Colombia’s forests and páramos? 畜牧业零毁林协议能保护哥伦比亚的森林和páramos吗？

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103055

Clare C. Sullivan , Joseph App , Lisa L. Rausch , Steven Sotelo , Daisy Tarrier , Miguel Ángel Vianchá Pinzón , Holly K. Gibbs

Zero Deforestation Agreements (ZDAs) for the beef and dairy sectors in Colombia could curb land cover change in the country’s highly biodiverse tropical forests and páramos. Improved understanding of the structure of the cattle supply chain and the ZDAs’ potential area of influence can help target companies with high-risk supply chains, inform implementation, and set realistic expectations for the ZDAs contribution to conservation goals for forest and páramos. We provide the first map of infrastructure for the beef and dairy sectors and link this to a dataset of cattle transactions to delineate “supply zones” or potential buying areas for each slaughterhouse and dairy. We use these supply zones to assess three spatially explicit scenarios of the potential reach of the ZDAs with expanded participation. At present, ZDA signatories’ supply zones cover 10.4 Mha or 23% of Colombia’s forests, with a large area of influence associated with beef sector signatories. Participation of all major companies could nearly double the ZDAs reach to include 41% of forests, and full participation could reach 49% of forests. The dairy ZDA also targets high alpine páramos, and 57% of unprotected páramos are within signatories’ supply zones. Full participation could support the conservation of 96% of this unique ecosystem. We found that indirect animal movements make up 80% of the supply chain, so policy implementation will depend on monitoring and traceability systems that go beyond suppliers selling directly to slaughterhouses or dairies. More companies must participate and effectively implement the ZDAs to realize this conservation potential.

针对哥伦比亚牛肉和乳制品行业的零毁林协议（zda）可以遏制该国生物多样性丰富的热带森林和páramos的土地覆盖变化。提高对牛供应链结构和zda潜在影响领域的理解，可以帮助具有高风险供应链的目标公司，为实施提供信息，并为zda对森林和páramos保护目标的贡献设定现实的期望。我们为牛肉和乳制品行业提供了第一张基础设施地图，并将其与牛交易数据集联系起来，以划定每个屠宰场和乳制品的“供应区”或潜在购买区域。我们使用这些供应区来评估三种空间上明确的情景，以扩大参与zda的潜在影响。目前，ZDA签署国的供应区覆盖了10.4公顷森林，占哥伦比亚森林面积的23%，其中牛肉部门签署国的影响力很大。所有大公司的参与可以使zda覆盖面扩大近一倍，达到41%的森林，全面参与可以达到49%的森林。ZDA也将目标锁定在高山地区páramos，其中57%的未受保护的páramos位于签署方的供应区内。充分参与可以保护这一独特生态系统的96%。我们发现，间接的动物运动占供应链的80%，因此政策的实施将取决于监测和可追溯系统，而不仅仅是供应商直接向屠宰场或奶牛场销售。必须有更多的公司参与并有效实施zda，以实现这一保护潜力。

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引用次数: 0

Citizen science data can significantly improve predictions of potential ranges of non-charismatic species: a study on two freshwater sponges 公民科学数据可以显著提高对非魅力型物种潜在分布范围的预测：一项对两种淡水海绵的研究

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-09-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103056

Łukasz Dylewski , Radosław Puchałka , Joanna T. Bialas , Katarína Fogašová , Zuzanna Jagiełło , Sandra Kaźmierczak , Henn Timm , Marcin Tobółka , Grzegorz Tończyk , Julia Zawadzka , Marcin K. Dyderski

Freshwater sponge species play crucial roles in aquatic ecosystems, yet their distribution patterns and responses to environmental changes remain insufficiently understood. Relying solely on platforms like GBIF for predicting species distribution may be inadequate and occasionally misleading due to biases and inaccuracies in the data. We investigated the distribution records and potential future distributions of two freshwater sponge species, Spongilla lacustris and Ephydatia fluviatilis, across Europe. Using various data sources, including the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), literature records, and internet naturalist data (iEcology), we compiled a comprehensive dataset comprising 1,330 records for S. lacustris and 9,854 records for E. fluviatilis. While GBIF records predominated in Western Europe, additional sources filled gaps in distribution records, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe. Species distribution models (SDMs) performed well, with S. lacustris exhibiting a broad climatic optimum range in Western and Northern Europe, while E. fluviatilis displayed a narrower range, primarily in northern regions. Future projections indicated a northward shift of freshwater sponge species in response to climate change, with potential contractions in Baltic Sea countries. These findings underscore that using diverse data sources such as scientific literature, field surveys, local ecological knowledge, and citizen science initiatives offers a more holistic view of species distribution patterns. Social media platforms also play a significant role in supplementing biodiversity data and engaging communities in conservation efforts.

淡水海绵物种在水生生态系统中发挥着至关重要的作用，但人们对其分布格局和对环境变化的响应却知之甚少。仅仅依靠GBIF这样的平台来预测物种分布可能是不够的，有时还会因为数据的偏差和不准确而产生误导。本文研究了两种淡水海绵物种——湖海绵和流海绵在欧洲的分布记录和潜在的未来分布。利用各种数据来源，包括全球生物多样性信息设施（GBIF）、文献记录和互联网自然学家数据（iEcology），我们编制了一个全面的数据集，其中包括湖泊沙蚕的1,330条记录和河流沙蚕的9,854条记录。虽然GBIF记录在西欧占主导地位，但其他来源填补了分布记录的空白，特别是在中欧和东欧。物种分布模型（SDMs）表现良好，湖螺在西欧和北欧表现出较宽的气候最佳范围，而河螺则表现出较窄的气候最佳范围，主要在北部地区。未来的预测表明，作为对气候变化的响应，淡水海绵物种将向北转移，波罗的海国家的淡水海绵物种可能会减少。这些发现强调，利用不同的数据来源，如科学文献、实地调查、当地生态知识和公民科学倡议，可以更全面地了解物种分布模式。社交媒体平台在补充生物多样性数据和吸引社区参与保护工作方面也发挥着重要作用。

{"title":"Citizen science data can significantly improve predictions of potential ranges of non-charismatic species: a study on two freshwater sponges","authors":"Łukasz Dylewski , Radosław Puchałka , Joanna T. Bialas , Katarína Fogašová , Zuzanna Jagiełło , Sandra Kaźmierczak , Henn Timm , Marcin Tobółka , Grzegorz Tończyk , Julia Zawadzka , Marcin K. Dyderski","doi":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103056","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103056","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Freshwater sponge species play crucial roles in aquatic ecosystems, yet their distribution patterns and responses to environmental changes remain insufficiently understood. Relying solely on platforms like GBIF for predicting species distribution may be inadequate and occasionally misleading due to biases and inaccuracies in the data. We investigated the distribution records and potential future distributions of two freshwater sponge species, <em>Spongilla lacustris</em> and <em>Ephydatia fluviatilis</em>, across Europe. Using various data sources, including the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), literature records, and internet naturalist data (iEcology), we compiled a comprehensive dataset comprising 1,330 records for <em>S. lacustris</em> and 9,854 records for <em>E. fluviatilis</em>. While GBIF records predominated in Western Europe, additional sources filled gaps in distribution records, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe. Species distribution models (SDMs) performed well, with <em>S. lacustris</em> exhibiting a broad climatic optimum range in Western and Northern Europe, while <em>E. fluviatilis</em> displayed a narrower range, primarily in northern regions. Future projections indicated a northward shift of freshwater sponge species in response to climate change, with potential contractions in Baltic Sea countries. These findings underscore that using diverse data sources such as scientific literature, field surveys, local ecological knowledge, and citizen science initiatives offers a more holistic view of species distribution patterns. Social media platforms also play a significant role in supplementing biodiversity data and engaging communities in conservation efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":328,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change","volume":"95 ","pages":"Article 103056"},"PeriodicalIF":9.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145005035","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Understanding the role of pluralistic ignorance in biodiversity conservation: A research agenda 理解多元无知在生物多样性保护中的作用：一个研究议程

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-09-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103043

Sandra J. Geiger , Hirotaka Imada , Carya Maharja , Nattavudh Powdthavee , Valeria Vitale , Lei Zhang , Claudio D. Rosa , Zenith N.C. Delabrida , Kristian S. Nielsen , Franz Essl , Mathew P. White

Most people believe that biodiversity loss is human-caused, yet they may not realize how many others share this belief. Such collective misperceptions—known as pluralistic ignorance—may hinder individual and system changes required to address biodiversity loss. At the same time, reducing pluralistic ignorance may promote positive change. In this Perspective, we provide a brief overview of existing work on pluralistic ignorance about environmental topics and propose an agenda for impactful pluralistic ignorance research in the biodiversity domain. We highlight several research gaps and offer recommendations, including (a) investigating different forms of pluralistic ignorance, (b) improving our understanding of consequences and determinants, and (c) broadening the intervention toolkit to counter pluralistic ignorance for biodiversity conservation. To increase the Perspective’s practical applicability, we describe historical and contemporary case studies on pluralistic ignorance and biodiversity conservation from around the globe.

大多数人认为生物多样性的丧失是人为造成的，然而他们可能没有意识到有多少人也持这种观点。这种集体误解——被称为多元无知——可能会阻碍应对生物多样性丧失所需的个人和系统变革。同时，减少多元无知可能促进积极的变化。在这一观点中，我们简要概述了关于环境主题多元无知的现有工作，并提出了生物多样性领域有影响力的多元无知研究议程。我们强调了几个研究空白并提出了建议，包括(a)调查不同形式的多元无知，(b)提高我们对后果和决定因素的理解，以及(c)扩大干预工具包以对抗生物多样性保护的多元无知。为了增加视角的实际适用性，我们描述了来自全球的关于多元无知和生物多样性保护的历史和当代案例研究。

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引用次数: 0

How is international CCS discussed locally? The case of Iceland 国内如何讨论国际CCS ？冰岛的例子

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-09-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103048

Juanita von Rothkirch , Bjarnhéðinn Guðlaugsson , David Christian Finger , Michael Stauffacher

Communities and scholars have long highlighted the need to attend to public concerns in carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects. Many large-scale CCS deployments are expected to be cross-border projects, posing specific questions in local communities. These questions may relate to the perceived lack of local benefits, why local emissions are not prioritized, and the feeling that each country should deal with its own emissions. We used qualitative research methods, including a thematic analysis of interviews and newspaper articles, to study local perceptions of the Coda Terminal project in Iceland, which is set to become one of the first international CCS hubs. Our results show that the project was depicted as an innovative solution to a global problem, with little impact at its implementation site. At the same time, the innovative nature of the project raised concerns about its scale, the associated risks, and the perception that it imports “waste” from other countries. Concerns have been heightened by the perceived marginalization of opposing voices, including those opposed to importing CO₂. We observed that opportunities to have a productive conversation on the import were obstructed by actors focusing on the correct definition of CO₂ instead of listening to and understanding people’s framings. We provide insights on how thinking about the why, who, and when of technology-tailored public participation can improve the dialogue around cross-border CCS.

长期以来，社区和学者们一直强调，有必要关注公众对碳捕获与封存（CCS）项目的关注。许多大规模的CCS部署预计将是跨境项目，给当地社区带来具体问题。这些问题可能涉及到缺乏当地利益，为什么不优先考虑当地的排放，以及每个国家应该处理自己的排放的感觉。我们使用定性研究方法，包括对采访和报纸文章的专题分析，来研究当地人对冰岛Coda终端项目的看法，该项目将成为首批国际CCS中心之一。我们的结果表明，该项目被描述为一个全球性问题的创新解决方案，对其实施地点的影响很小。与此同时，该项目的创新性质引起了人们对其规模、相关风险以及从其他国家进口“废物”的看法的担忧。反对声音（包括那些反对进口二氧化碳的声音）被边缘化，加剧了人们的担忧。我们注意到，由于参与者专注于二氧化碳的正确定义，而不是倾听和理解人们的框架，因此阻碍了就进口问题进行富有成效的对话的机会。我们提供了关于如何思考为什么、谁以及何时进行技术定制的公众参与可以改善围绕跨境CCS的对话的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Justice washing extractivism: Pacific Island activist perspectives on just transitions and deep-sea mining 正义洗涤开采主义：太平洋岛屿活动家对公正过渡和深海采矿的看法

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-09-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103053

Jason Titifanue

The notion of the just transition highlights that shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energies should leave no one marginalised, and benefits should be distributed in an equitable and just manner. In this context, a new frontier of resource extractivism is emerging – Deep-Sea Mining (DSM) – which proponents seek to position as a just means of acquiring critical metals and minerals used in renewable energy technologies. Drawing on postcolonial theories of island laboratories, this paper scrutinises DSM and the scramble for minerals by corporations, states, and state groupings. First, through a review of literature, the paper critically examines arguments for DSM that position it as a pathway towards just transition, including through purported benefits to nations in the Pacific Islands Region. Next, drawing on primary data collected during 2023–24 including interviews with Pacific Island climate activists (n = 45), it highlights activist understandings of DSM as perpetuating historic and ongoing colonialism, extractivism, and experimentation in the Pacific Islands Region. Far from a standalone issue, Pacific activists draw on principles of decolonisation and self-determination to engage with the intersecting crises of climate change, extractivism, and to resist DSM. Using DSM as a case study, this paper contends that the plight faced by Pacific Peoples due to the climate crisis, has been weaponised to justice wash extractivism as a climate solution.

公正转型的概念强调，从化石燃料转向可再生能源不应使任何人被边缘化，利益应以公平和公正的方式分配。在这种情况下，资源开采的一个新前沿正在出现- -深海采矿(DSM) - -支持者试图将其定位为获取可再生能源技术中使用的关键金属和矿物的一种正当手段。利用岛屿实验室的后殖民理论，本文仔细研究了DSM和企业、国家和国家集团对矿产的争夺。首先，通过对文献的回顾，本文批判性地审查了DSM的论点，这些论点将其定位为实现公正过渡的途径，包括通过对太平洋岛屿地区国家的所谓利益。接下来，利用2023-24年期间收集的主要数据，包括对太平洋岛屿气候活动家的采访（n = 45），它强调了活动家对DSM的理解，即在太平洋岛屿地区延续历史和正在进行的殖民主义、采掘主义和实验。太平洋活动家远非一个独立的问题，他们利用非殖民化和自决的原则来应对气候变化、采矿业和抵制DSM等相互交织的危机。本文以DSM为案例研究，认为太平洋地区人民因气候危机而面临的困境，已经被当作一种解决气候问题的方法来正义化。

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引用次数: 0

Weathering change: Longitudinal patterns of residential mobility following extreme weather events in Australia 风化变化：澳大利亚极端天气事件后居民迁移的纵向模式

IF 9.1 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Global Environmental Change

Pub Date : 2025-09-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103050

Sasha Bacquet-Carlier , Aude Bernard , Francisco Perales

There is growing evidence of disaster-induced mobility. However, most research focuses on immediate displacement, limiting our ability to understand the long-term consequences of extreme weather events on residential mobility. To address this gap, this study establishes the relationships between home damage caused by bushfires, floods, and cyclones and ensuing residential mobility in the following five years. Using nationally representative individual-level data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey from 2009 to 2023, we use finite distributed lag logistic models to determine the level, timing, and direction of weather-induced mobility, distinguishing between onward and return movement and distance moved. While most moves occur in the immediate aftermath of an extreme weather event, results indicate that weather-induced home damage increases the odds of moving for up to three years. Four distinct mobility patterns emerge: (1) immediate relocation, which brings some moves forward, (2) delayed displacement up to three years later, particularly over short distances, (3) short-term displacement followed by return, and (4) repeat onward migration. Younger adults and renters are more likely to be involved in all mobility types. Tertiary-educated individuals are less likely to return, but more likely to move repeatedly, while separated individuals are more likely to be delayed movers. The diversity of mobility responses underscores the conceptual and methodological complexities of estimating weather-induced population movement and the need for nuance and caution, while showing the benefits of distributed lag models to capture time dynamics. Our findings also highlight the need for targeted support mechanisms that account for different mobility trajectories and varying constraints faced by sub-population groups in the aftermath of extreme weather events.

越来越多的证据表明，灾害导致了人口流动。然而，大多数研究都集中在即时迁移上，限制了我们理解极端天气事件对住宅流动性的长期影响的能力。为了解决这一差距，本研究建立了森林大火、洪水和飓风造成的房屋损失与随后五年的住宅流动性之间的关系。利用2009年至2023年澳大利亚家庭、收入和劳动力动态（HILDA）调查中具有全国代表性的个人层面数据，我们使用有限分布滞后逻辑模型来确定天气引起的流动性的水平、时间和方向，区分前进和返回的移动以及移动的距离。虽然大多数搬家都是在极端天气事件发生后立即发生的，但研究结果表明，天气导致的房屋损坏会增加长达三年的搬家几率。出现了四种不同的迁移模式：(1)立即迁移，这带来了一些向前的迁移；(2)延迟迁移长达三年后，特别是在短途迁移中；(3)短期迁移之后返回；(4)重复向前迁移。年轻人和租房者更有可能参与所有的流动类型。受过高等教育的人不太可能回来，但更有可能反复搬家，而分居的人更有可能推迟搬家。流动响应的多样性强调了估算天气引起的人口流动的概念和方法的复杂性，以及对细微差别和谨慎的需要，同时显示了分布式滞后模型在捕捉时间动态方面的好处。我们的研究结果还强调，需要有针对性的支持机制，以解释极端天气事件后亚人口群体面临的不同流动轨迹和不同限制。

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引用次数: 0