Global Environmental Change最新文献

This study investigates the role of climate change contrarians in the defeat of the American Clean Energy and Security Act in 2010, a pivotal moment in U.S. climate policy that marked the end of extensive efforts to enact cap-and-trade climate legislation in the United States. Our research objectives are twofold: firstly, to determine the extent to which climate contrarians gained access to testify at congressional hearings in the years leading up to the bill’s ultimate defeat; and secondly, to examine the potential influence of fossil fuel industry (FFI) funds in facilitating this access. We compile a comprehensive new dataset encompassing all witnesses testifying at cap-and-trade and climate science hearings from 2003 to 2010. This information is cross-referenced with other pertinent data concerning interest groups, lobbying activities, and Congress. Our findings reveal a significant correlation between FFI lobbying expenditures and campaign contributions and the presence of contrarian witnesses at these hearings, suggesting a coordinated effort by the FFI to obstruct climate legislation. We find that contrarians were able to obtain disproportionate access to central hearings in key committees with jurisdiction over cap-and-trade bills, increasing their potential to obstruct legislation. Moreover, our analysis exposes a concerning over-representation of scientists known to deny the scientific consensus at these hearings, undermining the scientific consensus on climate change and perpetuating doubt about the urgency of climate action.

Carbon farming is a set of land management practices that abate carbon emissions through carbon sequestration and emissions avoidance. The Australian Carbon Credit Unit scheme enables landholders to receive carbon credits for implementing carbon farming projects that use approved methods to reduce emissions relative to baseline practice. The most widely adopted methodology under this scheme is human induced regeneration, whereby a landholder implements land management changes to enable a forest to regrow. Here, we model the spatial diffusion of human induced regeneration projects in Australia between 2014 and 2022 using spatiotemporal data on project registrations and spatial data on the methodology’s economic feasibility. We find that spatial proximity to existing projects is a strong predictor of landholder adoption, conditional on the methodology’s average economic feasibility in the region. We also find that a region’s average economic feasibility is a relatively weak predictor of adoption, after accounting for landholder proximity to existing projects. The spatial dependency of the diffusion process has led to high levels of spatial concentration in Australia’s carbon supply, raising concerns regarding land use efficiency and carbon supply risk. We explore how to design carbon farming schemes to support wider uptake and produce better outcomes.

The Three Horizons for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is a novel participatory approach to co-create future sustainable scenarios for supporting the implementation of the United Nations 2030 Agenda. Whereas the approach has been applied to inform the design of global-scale sustainability scenarios based on regional perspectives, it has not been implemented to explore how local and regional scenarios can be connected across sites and scales to inform governance processes in the implementation of the SDGs. This study applies an adapted version of the Three Horizons for the SDGs approach in four sites at regional and local scales in Spanish drylands to explore its potential to support policy coherence at multiple governance scales for advancing SDG implementation through dialogue between actors from multiple sectors. We conducted four two-day in-person workshops with diverse actors (n = 59) to explore their perceptions about the desired futures, current concerns, and strategies to achieve sustainable futures in the region. Results reveal 27 similar and nine dissimilar themes related to desired futures and current concerns, respectively. These findings provide common ground and highlight different contextual realities between sites that may serve as a basis for harmonizing policy priorities for advancing regional and local SDG implementation. The study also identifies 19 themes encompassing multiple strategies with the potential to establish associations across sites and scales to coordinate actions in alignment with the 2030 Agenda. We argue that the adapted version of the Three Horizons for the SDGs approach can serve as a tool to support coherent multi-scale governance needed to achieve global sustainability goals. We discuss lessons learned and limitations encountered from using the approach that provides guidance for future experiences.

Green financial sector initiatives, including green macroprudential policies, green monetary policies, and green public co-funding, could play an important role in the low-carbon transition by supporting countries in the implementation of their climate objectives. This paper analyzes how green financial sector initiatives could enable the scaling up of green investments while avoiding unintended effects on macroeconomic and financial stability. For each green financial sector initiative, the paper identifies its entry point in the economy, the transmission channels to banks’ investment decisions in terms of availability and cost of capital for high- and low-carbon goods, and the resulting impacts on output and greenhouse gas emissions. Building on these insights, the paper develops a theory of change about the role of green financial sector initiatives for climate mitigation, identifying the criteria for applicability and conditions to maximize their impact. It discusses specifically the application of the theory of change to the low-carbon transition in coal and carbon intensive regions in the context of the European net zero climate objective.

Projecting migration is challenging, due to the context-specific and discontinuous relations between migration and the socioeconomic and environmental conditions that drive this process. Here, we investigate the usefulness of Machine Learning (ML) Random Forest (RF) models to develop three net migration scenarios in South Asia by 2050 based on historical patterns (2001–2019). The model for the direction of net migration reaches an accuracy of 75%, while the model for the magnitude of migration in percentage reaches an R² value of 0.44. The variable importance is similar for both models: temperature and built-up land are of primary importance for explaining net migration, aligning with previous research. In all scenarios we find hotspots of in-migration North-western India and hotspots of out-migration in eastern and northern India, parts of Nepal and Sri Lanka, but with disparities across scenarios in other areas. These disparities underscore the challenge of obtaining consistent results from different approaches, which complicates drawing firm conclusions about future migration trajectories. We argue that the application of multi-model approaches is a useful avenue to project future migration dynamics, and to gain insights into the uncertainty and range of plausible outcomes of these processes.

Natural floating objects (NLOGs) are a major component of the habitat of pelagic species. Since the 1990s, the number of floating objects in the open ocean has increased greatly as a result of the introduction of drifting fish aggregating devices (DFADs) by the industrial tropical tuna purse seine vessels. These changes, and their potential impacts on the species that associate with floating objects, remain poorly understood. If the habitat modifications induced by DFADs have been recently characterized and quantified, the impact of other human activities on the number of floating objects is poorly studied. Relying on lagrangian simulations at the scale of the whole Indian Ocean, from 2000 to 2019, we assess the potential modifications of the pelagic surface habitat that could originate from forest cover change and climate variations. We develop several scenarios, based on coastal and river forest cover, precipitations and river discharge, to simulate densities of NLOGs. Our results suggest no significant increase in average NLOG densities in the ocean and highlight important regional and seasonal variations of these densities driven by both forest cover change and precipitations. These preliminary findings underscore the limited understanding of this critical element of pelagic species habitat. Therefore, there is pressing need to intensify monitoring efforts for pelagic species habitat and raise awareness about potential impacts of habitat modifications on tuna and other pelagic species.

This paper analyses the unique hybrid governance of Brazil’s Amazon Soy Moratorium (ASM) in regulating soybean production in the Amazon, where private actors have created a state-like ban on commodity production to reduce deforestation that goes beyond national law. Despite existing research regarding impact assessment, the study aims to fill knowledge gaps in explaining the ASM’s alliance-building processes, its longstanding maintenance, and its potential for regulatory replicability. Informed by the application of the Baptist and Bootlegger political economic theory of regulation and empirical data from qualitative interviews and document analysis, we provide an actor-centered explanation of the design, adoption, and maintenance of the ASM over a 19-year timeframe. Our results show how NGOs and businesses had opposite motivations and negotiated their roles to form a successful strategic alliance, reinforced by the inclusion of third parties (e.g., technical and governmental actors) to assist in its monitoring and transparency. Developed as an exclusive private market regulation, the ASM agreement, however, relies on a policy mix: private and public actors play a role in implementation, which includes assisting and relying on existing public policies, instruments, and official data. This policy mix was necessary for the ASM’s noteworthy hybrid and long-term governance. Its successful formation in 2006 was enabled by factors including an economic crisis, foreign pressure linked with national enforcement failure, and, most importantly, the Amazon scope. Our analysis shows who gains or loses from the regulatory design. Furthermore, we shed light on the biggest regulatory spillover, to the Cerrado, where the failed attempt at replicability emphasizes the regulatory uniqueness of the ASM. The study concludes with a discussion of what will help or hinder the ASM’s longevity, providing lessons for similar regulatory mechanisms on forest-risk agricultural production, such as EU’s recent Regulation on Deforestation-free Products.

The empirical study aims to examine how residents perceive and respond to air pollution in their daily lives, whether they use mobility as an adaptation strategy to avoid or mitigate their exposure, and how socioeconomic and demographic factors modify such responses in mobility. To this end, this study conducts an analysis in the city of Chengdu using a mixed-method approach combining surveys and large-scale mobile phone data. It is found that most at-risk individuals take protective measures, and some choose to change mobility patterns to protect themselves from exposure to air pollution. Regression results suggest that engagement with air quality information and the perceived effectiveness of protective measures are the most important predictors of human mobility changes in response to air pollution. The use of mobility as an adaptation strategy occurs despite the availability of in-situ strategies in general, while low-cost and effective in-situ adaptation choices and high-cost mobility strategies are considered as substitutes. Using changes in origin–destination trips in Sichuan generated from 5,393,739 cellphone users in Chengdu, this study reveals that an increase in the difference of the air quality index at origin versus at destination is associated with more trips from the origin to the destination, and travelers are more sensitive to air quality at origin that drives them to escape from the polluted areas. The findings suggest the (re)production of inequality and marginalization of some population groups in hazard adaptation.

Water security remains a critical global development challenge, compounded by persistent public funding shortfalls. Society urgently needs to identify opportunities for innovative private sector engagement in water security solutions. To identify feasible and impactful solutions, quantitative tools are needed to delineate complex environmental and socioeconomic water challenges and prioritize private sector investment opportunity spaces to address these challenges. We introduce the first global and regional-scale maps showing where threats to water security coincide with private sector opportunities to address them. The successful deployment of water solutions is contingent upon the societal and governance landscape that underpins a nation’s capacity to support sustainable water threat interventions and water-related business activities. By delineating areas with substantial pressures on water resources and assessing nations’ enabling environments to support private sector investments, we find nearly two-thirds of the world’s population could benefit from private sector interventions today, with middle income countries realizing the greatest benefits. In the face of global economic development and climate change, such solutions will become increasingly essential in future decades.

Cases of climate maladaptation are increasingly documented. Its identification and redressal has become a priority for researchers and policymakers concerned with climate vulnerability reduction. The ability to address climate maladaptation hinges on being open to its diverse causes, manifestations, and impacts. This study argues that climate maladaptation analyses are dominated by an “interactional ontology”—the understanding that it can be explained as an observable outcome from how separate social, economic, and political systems interact in moments of time. Consequently, efforts to curb climate maladaptation often target the institutional contexts (e.g., rules, regulations) understood as enabling adaptation practices to aggravate climate risks. But this only captures a partial aspect of climate maladaptation, neglecting underlying causes and processes. We argue a “relational ontology” can complement the “why and how” of maladaptation. A relational ontology understands climate maladaptation as an evolving process constituted through dynamic material and discursive relations, versus an observable outcome from separately interacting systems. By analyzing how adaptation initiatives are related to, framed, and politicized, assembly processes are rendered visible. To demonstrate this, we study the Government of Maharashtra’s (India) Jalyukt Shivar Abhiyan, a program aimed at increasing water conservation to “free” 20,000 villages from drought impacts. From our theorization and empirical case, we discuss how a relational ontology contributes to debates in the climate maladaptation literature and invites approaches for mitigating this phenomenon.