Global Environmental Change最新文献

Integrated assessment models that incorporate biodiversity and ecosystem services could be an important tool for improving our understanding of interconnected social-economic-ecological systems, and for analyzing how policy alternatives can shift future trajectories towards more sustainable development. Despite recent scientific and technological advances, key gaps remain in the scientific community’s ability to deliver information to decision-makers at the pace and scale needed to address sustainability challenges. We identify five research frontiers for integrated social-economic-ecological modeling (primarily focused on terrestrial systems) to incorporate biodiversity and ecosystem services: 1) downscaling impacts of direct and indirect drivers on ecosystems; 2) incorporating feedbacks in ecosystems; 3) linking ecological impacts to human well-being, 4) disaggregating outcomes for distributional equity considerations, and 5) incorporating dynamic feedbacks of ecosystem services on the social-economic system. We discuss progress and challenges along each of these five frontiers and the science-policy linkages needed to move new research and information into action.

Current trends in air transport are inconsistent with international climate goals. Without substantial changes from business-as-usual travel demand, neither new technologies nor alternative fuels will reduce emissions at the required rate. Air transport demand is highly skewed towards a small share of frequent flyers in all aviation users. While the unsustainability of aviation is well-recognised in academia, academics themselves are often frequent flyers – generating the emissions many of them also problematise. To investigate this contradiction, we survey 1,116 staff members from University College London (UK). We cluster academics based on their opinions of academic travel and international conference organisation, and examine how these groups participate in, and travel to, academic activities. Five clusters are identified: 1) Conservative frequent flyers, 2) Progressive infrequent flyers, 3) In-person conference avoiders, 4) Involuntary flyers, and 5) Traditional conference lovers. Despite some levels of similarity between academic travel attitudes and behaviour, results show that certain types of academics seem forced to regularly fly to distant conferences. In fact, members of our largest cluster (Involuntary flyers) have negative attitudes towards flying, yet have the plane as dominant travel mode. To reduce academic air travel (dependency), we provide tailored policy instruments for each cluster, aimed at reducing the need to travel to lowering the impact of travel.

The energy poverty literature has identified numerous factors that influence the phenomenon. However, only a limited number of studies examine the role of environmental consciousness, especially in the case of cooking fuel. This variable might be essential due to the close association of energy poverty with environmental quality to aid the overall environmental sustainability discourse. This study investigates the level of environmental consciousness and its impact on household cooking energy decisions using survey data from more than 1200 households in Ghana. The study employs an instrumental variable estimation approach to investigate the impact of environmental consciousness on energy poverty. The study finds that being environmentally conscious positively affects cleaner cooking fuel choices, and thus, such households are less inclined to be energy poor.

Furthermore, it was discovered that awareness of global environmental issues has a more substantial effect on household energy poverty.

Further robustness analysis confirms the findings. The study has implications for reducing energy poverty. A nationwide awareness campaign of contemporary, global environmental concerns is recommended to make people more environmentally conscious, reduce energy poverty, and accelerate the transition to cleaner cooking energy.

Much of England’s coastline is underprepared for adapting to long-term coastal change, with many coastal areas moving from ‘hold the line’ to managed realignment as this century progresses. This paper offers a unique case study of a frontage experiencing this transition. It explores the perspectives of Bacton and Walcott residents and coastal policymakers on managing the risk of coastal change for the Bacton-Walcott frontage on the Norfolk coast (UK), after the projected lifetime of a nature-based solution (NBS), known as sandscaping. Drawing upon survey and interview data, this research finds local residents have an increased sense of security of future coastal change through the perceived importance of the nearby Bacton Gas Terminal (currently supplying up to a third of the UK’s gas supply), and the protection afforded to it by sandscaping. For policymakers, sandscaping has bought time to prepare for managed realignment, whereas for residents, sandscaping has bought time to postpone it. There is a risk of maladaptation if reduced concern of future erosion affects willingness to engage in coastal adaptation in the present. This case study highlights the multiple temporal and spatial interests in coastal management, where decision-making at a local level has national-scale implications for domestic energy supply, and where novel nature-based solutions may bring additional uncertainty and complexity to building social resilience. It provides insights on the challenges of anticipatory adaptation, which is of relevance to other coastal areas looking to mitigate climate impacts and better prepare against future risk.

There is an increasing expectation for more scientists to engage with industry, government, and communities to solve climate change. A group for whom these calls are now prevalent are marine (natural and social) scientists working on environmental change, including climate change. Yet, there is limited empirical evidence of what drives them to embrace or avoid engaging distinct publics, including policymakers. Here, we examined via twenty-eight in-depth qualitative interviews factors affecting how Australian scientists engage the public about climate change. We found that nineteen contextual variables constrain and enable public engagement by scientists. These variables co-occur and interact at the individual, organizational, and systemic levels to affect how they prioritize, mobilize resources, and decide to engage the public. We found that while the scientists saw it rewarding to share their findings with others, they found it hard to deal with conflict, face skeptics, and navigate organizational politics and structures to engage others in a public-facing role. Also, a lack of institutional support and engagement culture, role ambiguity, unequal power relations, and a legacy of past encounters led many scientists to engage in tokenism. These findings and insights have implications for individual scientists, institutional policy, and the practice of engaging others about global environmental change. They reveal why scientists might not engage others in a public-facing role and what might be needed to transform engagement.

Using archaeological, historical, and ethnographic analysis of Norse and Inuit toys and miniatures, this paper argues that legacies of childhood learning can create limits to climatic change adaptation and provide lessons from the past relevant today. In Medieval Greenland, Norse children played with objects that would have familiarised them with the expected norms and behaviours of farming, household activities, sailing and conflict, but not with hunting, which was a key omission given the fundamental importance of wild resources to successful climatic adaptation in Greenland after the climate shocks of the mid-13^th century. The restricted range of toys combined with an instructional form of learning suggests a high degree of path dependence that limited adaptation to climatic change, and we know the Norse settlement ended with the conjunctures of the 15^th century that included climatic change. Inuit children, by contrast, learnt highly adapted behaviours and technologies through objects that taught locally tuned hunting skills. Inuit approaches that prioritised unstructured learning time aided the development of creative skills and problem-solving capabilities, and the Inuit successfully navigated the climatic changes of the Little Ice Age in Greenland. This insight from the past has implications for our approaches to childhood learning in the 21^st century and the unfolding climate crisis. Innovative approaches to childhood teaching and learning in the context of climate change adaptation could provide effective solutions, on a timescale commensurate with that of projected climate impacts.

Driven by a growing and more affluent population, changing diets and lifestyles, the demand for livestock products is expected to surge in the next decades. Satisfying this demand will result in additional pressures on land systems. The increasingly globalized supply chains of the livestock economy will further decouple many of these impacts from the places where livestock are reared. In this study, we determined the impact intensities of global livestock production across three environmental indicators: deforestation, biodiversity loss and marine eutrophication. To this end, we used global data on the production of crops (and grass), their trade and use as feed in livestock-production systems, as well as livestock production data. We found the highest deforestation and biodiversity impact intensities in the tropics in Central and South America, Southeast Asia and Central Western Africa. In contrast, the highest values for marine eutrophication intensities were found in countries located in Northern Europe and in South and in East Asia. Our analyses show differences caused by varying efficiencies in livestock production systems and by the sourcing patterns of feed items. In grazing systems for the production of ruminant meat, for example, the resulting impact intensities are dominated by the consumption of grass. In intensive and industrialized production systems, the bulk of the deforestation and, to a lesser extent, biodiversity impacts are linked to imported soybean feed. Our results can help identify livestock production systems and countries that would qualify as priority action targets, as well as potential entry points to make their livestock production systems more sustainable. They can also be used to assist consumers in comparing impacts across and within livestock food product types. Ultimately, understanding the environmental impacts embodied in global supply chains of livestock products can help create better regulatory policies and science-based interventions for protecting terrestrial and marine ecosystems.

Anthropogenic climate change is already causing dangerous and widespread disruptions in global ecological and social systems and affects the lives of billions of people around the world. Even with scaled-up risk management and adaptation, the limits of adaptation will often be reached. Currently, very little is known about the degree to which societies can adapt to climate change, and where and when limits to adaptation will be reached. In this paper, we conceptualize adaptation limits through a novel methodological framework, assess adaptation limits along adaptation pathways, and propose a research strategy for empirical and model-based limits assessments based on biophysical and socio-economic data. Assessing limits is central to national and international adaptation policymaking. More efficient adaptation can also help climate mitigation efforts.

Lack of property rights is associated with lower investment, development, and welfare. In the Brazilian Amazon, insecure property rights have historically led to civil conflicts and deforestation, which would be expected to provide incentives for landowners to seek formal title. In this paper, we construct a novel database of land prices in Brazil to measure the market value of formal title to land and compliance with environmental regulation. Using online advertisements of land sale offers scraped from a widely used seller’s platform, we first estimate a hedonic model that regresses the last offer price on property attributes such as farm-level agricultural production, land characteristics, structure amenities, and capital equipment included in the offer, as well as spatial and temporal fixed effects. We use this hedonic model to examine how property rights and environmental compliance capitalize into land prices across the Amazon and Cerrado biomes. Our main results imply low net benefits from property rights and low net benefits from compliance with the central Brazilian regulation that aims to maintain forest cover, the Forest Code. Finally, we estimate a duration model that follows the sequence of weekly offers for a specific property until it sells. Our findings show that parcels compliant with the Forest Code sell 46 % faster in the Amazon, while entitled properties in the Cerrado sell 9 % faster, unless they are compliant with the Forest Code, which requires a substantial portion of the property to be under native vegetation cover.

In 2016, negotiations of the Convention on Biological Diversity on access and benefit-sharing policies were shaken up by the emergence of digital sequence information (DSI) as policy issue. Open access to DSI on genetic resources in genetic databases is standard practice in data-driven biological research, but such access was argued to bypass access and benefit-sharing policies of the Convention. As Parties and observers had to take a position on governing DSI, this research investigated the influence of discourses on the negotiations through argumentative discourse analysis. Actors in international environmental negotiations mobilize ‘background’ discourses – both consciously and unconsciously – to define and ‘foreground’ issues, which in turn shape negotiation and decision-making processes. The analysis shows that existing discourses on access and benefit-sharing and biodiversity structured actors’ statements aimed at defining DSI, thus applying and redefining access and benefit-sharing principles in the context of DSI. Actors with similar and slightly varying interests formed discourse-coalitions on the basis of shared storylines. Developing countries formed a separate discourse-coalition to push for DSI regulation wherein ideas about sustainable development and environmental justice were integrated, and to a lesser extent about biopiracy (the notion that open access to DSI enables the misappropriation of genetic resources and associated traditional knowledge). In response, developed countries adopted narratives put forward by industry and research, advocating that open access to DSI is essential for science, biodiversity conservation and sustainable development. A third coalition, consisting of Indigenous peoples and local communities and civil society, also mobilized environmental justice and biopiracy discourses, but more prominently a unique holistic discourse on nature. Finally, holistic and biopiracy discourses were marginalized in official negotiation documents, while scientific and sustainable development discourses were adopted in official negotiation documents. The research provides a novel understanding of the DSI-negotiations as discursive politics, and highlights how different positionalities in discourses structure and are structured by statements in this political arena.