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Predictive Analysis of Road Traffic Accidents in Katsina State, Nigeria Using Machine Learning Algorithms: A Study on Factors and Mitigation Strategies 使用机器学习算法对尼日利亚卡齐纳州道路交通事故进行预测分析:因素和缓解策略研究
Pub Date : 2023-07-31 DOI: 10.57233/ijsgs.v9i2.475
U. Iliyasu, Muhammad Muntasir Yakudu, A.A. Abdulwasiu
This study aims to explore the use of machine learning algorithms in predicting the likelihood of road traffic accidents in Katsina State, Nigeria, with the goal of reducing the high rate of road traffic accidents and associated loss of lives and properties. The study collects and analyzes data on road traffic accidents in Katsina State, including the number of accidents, location, time of day, and the type of vehicles involved. Machine learning algorithms such as Decision Trees, Random Forest, and K-Nearest Neighbors, are trained using the data to predict the likelihood of road traffic accidents. The study also identifies the factors that contribute to road traffic accidents in Katsina State by using techniques such as feature selection and correlation analysis, to identify the most important variables. The findings can be used by stakeholders, including the government, law enforcement agencies, and road safety organizations, to develop and implement effective strategies to reducing road traffic accidents in Katsina State. The study utilizes data collected from the Federal Road Safety Corps database in Katsina, Nigeria, and employs data cleaning and feature selection techniques to improve data quality. The Random Forest algorithm achieved the predictive value as 85% while K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) and Decision Tree algorithms yielded 17% and 42% respectively.
本研究旨在探索机器学习算法在预测尼日利亚卡齐纳州道路交通事故可能性方面的应用,目的是降低道路交通事故的高发率和相关的生命财产损失。该研究收集和分析了卡齐纳州道路交通事故的数据,包括事故数量、地点、一天中的时间和涉及的车辆类型。机器学习算法,如决策树、随机森林和k近邻,使用这些数据进行训练,以预测道路交通事故的可能性。该研究还通过使用特征选择和相关分析等技术确定了导致卡齐纳州道路交通事故的因素,以确定最重要的变量。调查结果可供包括政府、执法机构和道路安全组织在内的利益攸关方使用,以制定和实施有效的战略,减少卡齐纳州的道路交通事故。该研究利用从尼日利亚卡齐纳联邦道路安全队数据库收集的数据,并采用数据清洗和特征选择技术来提高数据质量。随机森林算法的预测值为85%,而k近邻(KNN)和决策树算法的预测值分别为17%和42%。
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引用次数: 0
Mathematical Modeling and Optimal Control of Intervention Strategies for Covid-19 Disease Covid-19疾病干预策略的数学建模与最优控制
Pub Date : 2023-07-31 DOI: 10.57233/ijsgs.v9i2.469
Kabiru A. Manju, A. Momoh, Y. B. Chukkol, Musa Isiyaku
This research work used mathematical modeling in understanding the dynamics of covid-19 disease. We modified the work of Chen et al. (2020) by incorporating vaccination and pets (spread agents) compartments, making the model a ten (10) compartmental model, and also augmenting four controls to it namely: vaccination, use of face mask and physical distancing, sanitation, and treatment. We developed from the model, a system of non-linear Ordinary Differential Equations from which the positivity of solution was proven. We established the equilibrium states, determined the reproduction number which was utilized to predict the disease's transmission dynamics, hence establishing the conditions for local and global stability of the disease free- equilibrium using Routh- Hurwitz criterion and the Castillo-Chavez technique, respectively. The outcome of the investigation of the stability of the disease-free equilibrium state that covid-19 disease transmission can be significantly degraded and eliminated if the secondary infection’s rate is maintained at a value less than unity. We also used Pontryagin's Maximum Principle to establish the optimality system. The optimality system was numerically solved in Matlab to establish the best strategy in controlling the transmission of covid-19 disease in the population. The graphical solutions revealed that the most effective strategy is the combination of vaccination, use of face mask and physical distancing, sanitation, and treatment of infected individuals in the population.
这项研究工作使用数学模型来理解covid-19疾病的动态。我们修改了Chen等人(2020)的工作,纳入了疫苗接种和宠物(传播因子)的隔间,使模型成为一个十(10)个隔间模型,并增加了四个控制因素,即:疫苗接种、使用口罩和保持身体距离、卫生和治疗。在此基础上建立了一个非线性常微分方程组,并证明了其解的正性。利用Routh- Hurwitz准则和Castillo-Chavez技术分别建立了无病平衡点的局部稳定条件和全局稳定条件,确定了用于预测疾病传播动态的繁殖数。无病平衡状态稳定性的研究结果表明,当继发感染率保持在小于1时,covid-19疾病传播可显著降低和消除。并利用庞特里亚金极大值原理建立了最优性系统。在Matlab中对优化系统进行数值求解,建立控制covid-19疾病在人群中传播的最佳策略。图形解决方案显示,最有效的策略是结合接种疫苗、使用口罩和保持身体距离、卫生和对人群中受感染个体的治疗。
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引用次数: 0
Biosynthesis and Characterization of ZnO/NiFe2O4 Nanocatalyst via Green Route Using Anacadium occidentalelinn (cashew nut) and its photocatalytic activity for the treatment of tannery wastewater under sunlight irradiation 绿色路线制备ZnO/NiFe2O4纳米催化剂及其对制革废水的光催化活性研究
Pub Date : 2023-07-31 DOI: 10.57233/ijsgs.v9i2.481
K Usman, M. Abubakar, R. Abdullahi, R Muhammad, A. A. Muhammad, A. Usman
The Anacadium occidentalelinn (cashew nut) leaves extract have been excellently utilized as a reducing as well as capping agent for the synthesis of zincoxide and nickel ferrite nanoparticles using zinc acetate, and iron (lll) chloride, nickel chloride as precursor with a different calcined temperature at the furnace and its application in the treatment of tannery wastewater. The generation of zinc oxide was proved by various characterization techniques. XRD studies displayed that a cubic phase and the average crystallite size for the intense peak measured were about 30-56nm was exhibited by the synthesized nanoparticle SEM image showed that synthesized particle are granular around 50nm and roughly spherical in shape. EDS analysis proved the elemental composition of the synthesized sample and disclosed that oxygen as well as zinc are the dominant elements. The synthesized catalyst was used in the tannery wastewater treatment also the quality parameters of tannery wastewater after treatment with the synthesized catalyst under sunlight irradiation, significantly changed and found to be within acceptable range of quality water according to (WHO). The color, odor and appearance where changed to colorless, odorless, and clear. ph, 7.4 total organic carbon (TOC), 32(mg/dm3), turbidity, 2.5(NTU) respectively. The highest efficiency of the treatment process was attained under sunlight irradiation conditions in comparison to those which were recorded under dark conditions as revealed by the result of the analysis. This procedure is safe, environmentally friendly and viable due to its fast, low cost compared to other methods.
以醋酸锌、氯化铁、氯化镍为前驱体,在不同焙烧温度下合成氧化锌和铁酸镍纳米颗粒,并将其应用于制革废水的处理。通过各种表征技术证明了氧化锌的生成。XRD研究表明,合成的纳米颗粒为立方相,测得的强峰平均晶粒尺寸约为30-56nm。SEM图像显示,合成的纳米颗粒在50nm左右呈颗粒状,形状大致为球形。能谱分析证实了合成样品的元素组成,表明氧和锌是主要元素。将合成的催化剂用于制革废水处理,经合成催化剂处理后的制革废水在日光照射下的水质参数发生了明显变化,符合(WHO)水质可接受范围。颜色、气味和外观改变为无色、无臭、透明。ph为7.4,总有机碳(TOC)为32(mg/dm3),浊度为2.5(NTU)。分析结果显示,与在黑暗条件下记录的处理过程相比,在阳光照射条件下获得的处理过程效率最高。与其他方法相比,该方法快速、成本低,安全、环保、可行。
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引用次数: 0
A 〖(2n+9)〗^thDegree Polynomial Approximation Method for Solving Eight Order Linear Boundary Value Problems 〖(2n+9)〗^求解八阶线性边值问题的次多项式逼近方法
Pub Date : 2023-07-31 DOI: 10.57233/ijsgs.v9i2.468
Ibrahim Mutawakilu, Nakone Bello, Mustafa Aminu
Galerking method, Collocation method and least squired method have been used for solving boundary value problems (BVPs) and from practical point of view almost any success of above mention method depends on the selection of basis functions. Also, Adomain decomposition and variational iteration methods have been applied for the solution of BVPs and required respectively calculating the Adomian’s polynomials and Lagrange multipliers. In this paper a simple method of  Degree polynomial approximation solution were n is number of successive derivatives of the governing equation is suggested as an alternative of the above mentioned methods. The method consists of first obtaining from the governing equation its n successive derivatives and boundary conditions a linear differential system of  equations evaluated at the boundary points. Next, an approximate solution in the form of polynomial of degree  with  unknown coefficients   is assumed. To determine the unknown coefficients, the assumed solution is incorporate into the linear differential system which turns to be a linear system of equation with unknowns which is salvable uniquely. The method is tested for n=5 to four examples. It clear that from tables 3.1 to 3.4 and figures 3.1 to 3.4 the numerical outcomes agree with the exact solution and also better than some existing results in the literatures. it should be also noted that the accuracy of the method can be increased by  increased n.   All Numerical computation were performed using maple 2016 software.
边值问题的求解已经采用了Galerking法、配点法和最小求值法,从实际应用的角度来看,上述方法的成功与否几乎取决于基函数的选择。此外,还采用了域分解和变分迭代方法求解bvp,分别计算Adomian多项式和Lagrange乘子。本文提出了一种简单的阶多项式近似解法,当控制方程的连续导数个数为n时,作为上述方法的一种替代方法。该方法首先由控制方程的n次连续导数和边界条件得到在边界点处求值的线性微分方程组。其次,假设了一个近似解,其形式为未知系数的次多项式。为了确定未知系数,将假设解纳入线性微分系统,使其成为唯一可用的带未知数的线性方程组。对n=5 ~ 4个实例进行了验证。从表3.1 - 3.4和图3.1 - 3.4可以看出,数值结果与精确解一致,也优于文献中已有的一些结果。还需要注意的是,该方法的精度可以通过增加n来提高。所有数值计算都使用maple 2016软件进行。
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引用次数: 0
On Generators and Undirected Cayley graphs of Γ_1-Non-Deranged Permutation Groups 关于Γ_1-Non-Deranged置换群的生成和无向Cayley图
Pub Date : 2023-07-31 DOI: 10.57233/ijsgs.v9i2.466
K. O. Aremu, F. A. Issa, A. Muhammad, A.R. Tasiu, I.M. Muhammed
A cayley graph  of a group , where S is the set of generators of  is a graph that has a vertex for each element of  and edge  for  and . In this work, we study the structural properties of undirected cayley graphs of the -non deranged permutation group ( ) obtained from a modulo p function (for  and  is prime), and established that the generators of  are not unique and also the undirected cayley graphs  is not simple.
群的cayley图,其中S是的生成器集合,是一个对的每个元素都有顶点,对和都有边的图。本文研究了由模p函数(和为素数)得到的-非无序置换群()的无向cayley图的结构性质,并证明了无向cayley图的生成不唯一,无向cayley图也不简单。
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引用次数: 0
Molecular Identification of Malaria Vector in Gusau Township, Nigeria 尼日利亚Gusau镇疟疾病媒的分子鉴定
Pub Date : 2023-07-31 DOI: 10.57233/ijsgs.v9i2.482
K. Abdullahi, S. I. Moyi, M.T. Abdulazeez
There about 460 Anopheles species recognized, over 100 can transmit human malaria but only 30–40 commonly transmit parasites of the genus Plasmodium, which cause malaria. Anopheles gambiae is the principal vector of the most dangerous malaria parasite species in Africa, which is Plasmodium falciparum. Anopheles gambiae are a complex consisting of eight morphologically indistinguishable species and each of the members of the complex having unique biology, ecology and behaviour and should be studied and differentiated. The research objective was to identify the species of malaria vector in Gusau township Nigeria using molecular biological technique to know the exact malaria vector. Knowledge of the exact malaria vector in a given environment enables formulating a carefully designed tailor-made vector control measure. Indoor and outdoor mosquito samples were collected from selected areas in five wards of Gusau township using standard collection methods, for a period of twelve months. The samples were identified using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) technique and the result showed Anopheles gambiae in all sites of sample collection. It is therefore recommended that integrated malaria vector control should be adopted in the mosquito control programme because Anopheles gambiae is rugged and can be difficult to control and/or eradicate because of the emerging insecticide resistance and its close association with human host.
目前已知的按蚊约有460种,其中100多种可以传播人类疟疾,但只有30-40种通常传播导致疟疾的疟原虫属寄生虫。冈比亚按蚊是非洲最危险的疟疾寄生虫——恶性疟原虫的主要传播媒介。冈比亚按蚊是一个由8个形态上难以区分的物种组成的复合体,复合体中的每一个成员都具有独特的生物学、生态学和行为,应该进行研究和区分。研究目的是利用分子生物学技术鉴定尼日利亚Gusau镇疟疾病媒的种类,以确定准确的疟疾病媒。了解特定环境中的确切疟疾病媒,有助于制定精心设计的量身定制的病媒控制措施。采用标准采集方法,在姑索镇5个区选定地区采集室内和室外蚊虫样本,为期12个月。采用聚合酶链反应(PCR)技术对样本进行鉴定,结果显示所有采集点均为冈比亚按蚊。因此,建议在蚊虫控制规划中采用综合疟疾病媒控制,因为冈比亚按蚊是顽强的,由于出现杀虫剂抗性及其与人类宿主的密切联系,可能难以控制和/或根除。
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引用次数: 0
Rainfall Prediction Models for Katsina State, Nigeria: Machine Learning Approach 尼日利亚卡齐纳州降雨预测模型:机器学习方法
Pub Date : 2023-07-31 DOI: 10.57233/ijsgs.v9i2.473
Umar Iliyasu, G.N Obunadike, Eli Adama Jiya
Weather patterns and rainfall are essential pieces of information that drive the agricultural sector. For a peasant farmer in katsina, knowledge of pattern of rainfall is a vital determinant of which crops to plant and when to commence planting. Considering its implications for agriculture, water resource management, and disaster preparedness, this paper developed rainfall prediction models specifically tailored to the unique patterns in Katsina State, Nigeria. The work used Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with 10 years historical rainfall data obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency Katsina where data were collected from Nigerian Meteorological Agency Katsina State, then preprocessed and subjected to the models, while the evaluation matrices that were used are Precision, Recall, Accuracy, F1-Score, R- Square, Mean Square Error (MSE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The results of this research indicate that the ANN model outperforms the MLR model with R-Square of ANN equal 0.532 and that of MLR equal to 0.099 and also the precision, recall and f1-score for ANN are 0.666, 0.666 and 0.661 respectively while for MLR they are 0.580, 0.583 and 0.564 respectively. These findings suggest that the ANN model is better at capturing the linear relationship between input variables and rainfall.
天气模式和降雨是推动农业部门发展的重要信息。对于卡齐纳的农民来说,了解降雨模式是决定种植何种作物以及何时开始种植的重要因素。考虑到它对农业、水资源管理和备灾的影响,本文开发了专门针对尼日利亚卡齐纳州独特模式的降雨预测模型。本文采用多元线性回归(MLR)和人工神经网络(ANN)对尼日利亚气象局卡齐纳州(Katsina State)的10年历史降雨数据进行预处理和建模,采用精度、召回率、准确率、F1-Score、R平方、均方误差(MSE)和均方根误差(RMSE)作为评价矩阵。研究结果表明,人工神经网络模型优于MLR模型,ANN的r平方为0.532,MLR的r平方为0.099,并且人工神经网络的准确率、召回率和f1-score分别为0.666、0.666和0.661,MLR的准确率、召回率和f1-score分别为0.580、0.583和0.564。这些发现表明,人工神经网络模型更善于捕捉输入变量与降雨量之间的线性关系。
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引用次数: 0
Prevalence of Fasciola species from Cattle Slaughtered at Birnin Kebbi Modern Abattoir Birnin Kebbi现代屠宰场屠宰牛的片形吸虫流行情况
Pub Date : 2023-04-05 DOI: 10.57233/ijsgs.v9i1.420
Kabiru Zaki, A. Mahmuda, Y. Yakubu, A. A. Mohammed, Musibau Olayinka Alayande, M. Lawal, M. Usman, Abdulwahab Habibullah Olabisi
Diagnostic tools to detect and differentiate Fasciola species have improved, but the understanding of the distribution and population structure of this parasite is location dependent. This study was aimed to phenotypically identify Fasciola species from cattle brought for slaughter at Birnin Kebbi Modern Abattoir. Ante-mortem faecal samples were collected from the sampled cattle for worm egg detection and post-mortem inspection of liver samples were performed. Two methods of Parasitological (Flukefinder Kit and formalin-ether sedimentation) methods were performed on the faecal samples. Results have yielded a high prevalence (31.2%) of fluke eggs with the Flukefinder Kit than with formalin-ether sedimentation technique (8.5%). Prevalence was higher (34%) in the males than in female (26.2%) cattle. Younger cattle (34.3%) were also more infected than their older (30.7%) counterpart. Sokoto Gudali had the highest prevalence of 44.0% followed by Red Bororo with 34.0%, and the least prevalence was observed in Bunaji breed with 18.0%. Statistical analyses results had revealed no significant relation between prevalence of fasciolosis and the co-variables (sex, age) as p > 0.05 but there was a significant association between prevalence and breed of cattle (p = 0.018). There was no significant agreement between the methods of faecal analyses used. Prevalence of 15.8% was observed from the post-mortem examination. This have increased the knowledge about the existence of the parasite in the study area. It is recommended that the Flukefinder® Kit should be used in diagnosis of Fasciola species due to its high sensitivity compared to the conventional sedimentation method.
检测和区分片形吸虫种类的诊断工具已经得到改进,但对这种寄生虫的分布和种群结构的了解取决于地点。本研究旨在对带到Birnin Kebbi现代屠宰场屠宰的牛的片形吸虫进行表型鉴定。采集死前粪便样本进行虫卵检测,并对死后肝脏样本进行检查。采用两种寄生虫学方法(Flukefinder Kit和福尔马林醚沉淀法)对粪便样本进行检测。结果Flukefinder试剂盒的吸虫卵检出率(31.2%)高于福尔马林醚沉淀法(8.5%)。公牛的患病率(34%)高于母牛(26.2%)。年轻的牛(34.3%)也比年长的牛(30.7%)更受感染。Sokoto Gudali的患病率最高,为44.0%,其次是Red Bororo,为34.0%,Bunaji的患病率最低,为18.0%。统计分析结果显示,片形虫病患病率与协变量(性别、年龄)无显著相关(p > 0.05),但与牛的品种有显著相关(p = 0.018)。所使用的粪便分析方法之间没有显著的一致性。尸检显示患病率为15.8%。这增加了对研究地区寄生虫存在的认识。与传统沉淀法相比,Flukefinder®Kit具有较高的灵敏度,因此建议将其用于片形吸虫的诊断。
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引用次数: 0
Assessment of Bread Safety in Gusau- Zamfara State: Qualitative and Quantitative Determination of Potassium Bromate and Some Heavy Metals 古苏-扎姆法拉州面包安全评价:溴酸钾和一些重金属的定性和定量测定
Pub Date : 2023-03-31 DOI: 10.57233/ijsgs.v9i1.394
Z. Bello, N. N.A. Sani, S. Ishaq
Twenty-six (26) samples of different bread brands sold in Gusau metropolis of Northern Nigeria were analyzed for potassium bromate and some heavy metals content. The study revealed the presence of potassium bromate in all the samples analyzed. The concentrations ranged from 3.45-9.38 mg/kg; all the values were above the allowed limit by FDA of 0.02 μg/g (0.02 mg/kg). Atomic absorption spectroscopic method was used for the heavy metals determination, the heavy metals determined were Pb, Cd, Cu, Zn and Fe, and results obtained were assessed on the basis of the permissible limits for the respective metals in Foods. The concentrations of Pb, and Cd in the samples were in the range of 0.12-1.20 mg/kg and 0.010- 0.081mg/kg respectively. Permissible limit for Pb and Cd in food is 0.2-2.5 mg kg-1 and 0.05 mg/kg respectively. The levels of Cadmium in some of the samples (Samples E, F, H, P R and S) suggest a certain degree of contamination. The values for Cu, Zn and Fe in the samples ranged as follows; Cu (0.03-0.099 mg/kg), Zn (0.24-5.23 mg/kg) and Fe (0.71- 6.67 mg/kg). Cu and Zn content in all the samples where within permissible limits. The concentration for Fe was above permissible limit in one of the samples (samples G, 6.67 mg/kg).
对尼日利亚北部Gusau市销售的26个不同品牌面包样品进行了溴酸钾和一些重金属含量分析。这项研究揭示了所有被分析样本中溴酸钾的存在。浓度范围为3.45 ~ 9.38 mg/kg;均高于FDA规定的0.02 μg/g (0.02 mg/kg)的限量。采用原子吸收光谱法进行重金属测定,测定的重金属有Pb、Cd、Cu、Zn和Fe,并根据食品中各重金属的允许限量对结果进行了评价。样品中Pb和Cd的浓度分别在0.12 ~ 1.20 mg/kg和0.010 ~ 0.081mg/kg之间。食品中铅和镉的允许限量分别为0.2-2.5 mg/kg和0.05 mg/kg。部分样品(样品E、F、H、P、R和S)中的镉含量表明存在一定程度的污染。样品中Cu、Zn、Fe的值为:铜(0.03 ~ 0.099 mg/kg)、锌(0.24 ~ 5.23 mg/kg)、铁(0.71 ~ 6.67 mg/kg)。样品中Cu、Zn含量均在允许范围内。其中一个样品(G样品,6.67 mg/kg)的铁含量超过允许限量。
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引用次数: 1
A Computational Analysis on Steady MHD Casson Fluid Flow Across A Vertical Porous Channel Affected By Thermal Radiation Effect 热辐射效应影响下MHD卡森流体垂直多孔通道稳态流动的计算分析
Pub Date : 2023-03-31 DOI: 10.57233/ijsgs.v9i1.393
Ojemeri Ojemeri, E. Omokhuale, M. Hamza, I. Onwubuya, A. Shuaibu
This article investigates the MHD free convection flow of a Casson fluid that is electrically conductive, affected by thermal radiation effect in a vertical porous channel. The resulting solutions of the leading differential equations describing the velocity and temperature flows characteristics are obtained analytically using regular perturbation method. The actions of Casson fluid parameter, magnetic field effect, thermal radiation parameters on the velocity field, temperature distribution, skin friction coefficient and rate of heat transfer has been presented for relevant temperature jump and velocity slip conditions. The results obtained revealed that by taking varying values of the major controlling parameters, such as Casson parameter, thermal radiation parameter, magnetic field effect, rarefaction parameter and wall ambient temperature difference ratio parameter, the velocity and temperature profiles are substantially influenced. Additionally, when the Casson parameter is set to be 1000, the numerical computations of these findings agree very well with those of Abbas et al., 2020.
本文研究了导电卡森流体在垂直多孔通道中受热辐射效应影响的MHD自由对流流动。用正则摄动法解析得到了描述速度和温度流动特性的主要微分方程的结果解。在相应的温度跳跃和速度滑移条件下,给出了卡森流体参数、磁场效应、热辐射参数对速度场、温度分布、表面摩擦系数和换热率的作用。结果表明,当卡森参数、热辐射参数、磁场效应、稀薄参数和壁面环境温差比参数等主要控制参数取值不同时,速度和温度分布都会受到较大影响。此外,当Casson参数设置为1000时,这些结果的数值计算与Abbas et al., 2020的结果非常吻合。
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引用次数: 6
期刊
International Journal of Science for Global Sustainability
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