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Projection of Climate Change on the Probability of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in North Sumatra Province 北苏门答腊省气候变化对登革热出血热发生概率的预测
Theresia Grefyolin Simbolon, E. Frida, M. Sinambela, M. Situmorang, S. Humaidi, Yahya Darmawan
Climate change is a major threat to global prosperity. The industrial revolution has occurred since 1750 to 2010 where the increase in global air temperature has reached 0.7°C. Rising temperatures and fluctuating rainfall is the identification of climate change, one of the impacts of climate change is changing the distribution of some types of mosquitoes (Aedes Aegypti).Based on the results of the analysis of the main components, a good model uses an accuracy rate of about 85% and passes the test individually and as a whole. Indonesia has a tropical climate where warm temperatures and high rainfall variability are a comfortable habitat for Aedes Aegypti mosquitoes. The breeding and life cycle of the Aedes Aegypti mosquito is directly influenced by climatic conditions. The purpose of this study is to determine the normal rainfall map, an overview of climate projection patterns, identification of characteristics of climate change in the short term (2011 – 2040), medium term (2041 – 2070) and long term (2071-2100) based on rainfall and temperature projections in North Sumatra province. Statistical methods used to determine the effect of climate on health (dengue) include statistical downscaling, delta bias correction, Principal Component Analysis, and ordinal logistic regression. The results of the ordinal logistic regression analysis show that rainfall that is suitable for dengue fever ranges from 100 - 300 mm. For North Sumatra rainfall ranges from 50 - 600 mm. In March and November is the strongest threat because of the peak with high rainfall intensity where the danger of flooding and dengue. The air temperature ranges from 24.5 - 28.5 oC, this condition is still optimal for the development of the Aedes Aegypti mosquito. The climate change projection index for the short term (2011 - 2040), medium term (2041 - 2070) and long term (2071 - 2100) shows a consistent increase with a range of 0.40C, this value will affect the acceleration of the reproduction of the Aedes aegypti mosquito as the cause of DHF. The projection probability of dengue hemorrhagic fever shows that North Sumatra Province still has a high chance of being categorized as a high risk area for dengue fever with a probability value of 0.82 - 0.99.
气候变化是对全球繁荣的主要威胁。工业革命发生于1750年至2010年,全球气温上升至0.7°C。气温上升和降雨量波动是气候变化的标志,气候变化的影响之一是改变某些类型蚊子的分布(埃及伊蚊)。根据主要部件的分析结果,一个好的模型使用了大约85%的准确率,并且单独和整体通过了测试。印度尼西亚属于热带气候,温暖的温度和高降雨量是埃及伊蚊的舒适栖息地。埃及伊蚊的繁殖和生命周期直接受气候条件的影响。本研究的目的是根据北苏门答腊省的降雨量和温度预测,确定正常降雨量图、气候预测模式概述、短期(2011-2040年)、中期(2041-2070年)和长期(2071-2100年)气候变化特征。用于确定气候对健康(登革热)影响的统计方法包括统计降尺度、德尔塔偏差校正、主成分分析和有序逻辑回归。有序逻辑回归分析的结果表明,适合登革热的降雨量在100-300毫米之间。北苏门答腊的降雨量在50-600毫米之间。3月和11月是最严重的威胁,因为降雨量高的峰值有洪水和登革热的危险。空气温度在24.5-28.5摄氏度之间,这种条件仍然是埃及伊蚊发育的最佳条件。短期(2011-2040年)、中期(2041-2070年)和长期(2071-2100年)的气候变化预测指数显示出持续的增长,范围为0.40C,该值将影响埃及伊蚊繁殖的加速,这是DHF的原因。登革热出血热的预测概率表明,北苏门答腊省仍有很大机会被归类为登革热高风险地区,概率值为0.82-0.99。
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引用次数: 0
Accuracy of Weather Radar Products for Rainfall Estimation in North Sumatra Region 北苏门答腊地区气象雷达产品估算雨量的精度
Yolanda Mutiara Tondang, M. Situmorang, Tulus Ikhsan, Yahya Darmawan
The weather radar is a remote sensing-based observation tool that identifies and records rainfall. Remote sensing is a technology that determines atmospheric conditions, measures rainfall, and performs other functions. However, the accuracy of weather radar products concerning rainfall estimation need to be evaluated. This research aims to investigate the accuracy of weather radar products for rainfall estimation in North Sumatra. We analyzed the raw weather radar data using RAINBOW software for data processing. We presented the accuracy evaluation between weather data and observation data using several statistical error parameters such as the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Error (ME), and Pearson Correlation (r). The results indicate that the CMAX radar product estimates rainfall better than the PPI and CAPPI products. The CMAX product has the lowest error value and higher correlation coefficient (r), indicating its superior rainfall estimation performance.
气象雷达是一种基于遥感的观测工具,用于识别和记录降雨。遥感是一种确定大气条件、测量降雨量和执行其他功能的技术。然而,天气雷达产品在估计雨量方面的精度还有待评估。本研究旨在探讨气象雷达产品在北苏门答腊地区的雨量估算精度。利用RAINBOW软件对原始气象雷达数据进行分析处理。利用平均绝对误差(MAE)、平均误差(ME)和Pearson相关系数(r)等统计误差参数对气象资料和观测资料进行了精度评价。结果表明,CMAX雷达产品对降水的估计优于PPI和CAPPI产品。CMAX产品误差值最小,相关系数(r)较高,表明CMAX产品具有较好的降水估计性能。
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引用次数: 0
Identification of Rainfall events on Climate Phenomena in Medan based on Machine Learning 基于机器学习的棉兰降雨事件对气候现象的识别
Deassy Eirene Diana Doloksaribu, Kerista Tarigan, R. M. Putra, Yahya Darmawan
Indonesia has diverse topographical conditions that result in Indonesia having a unique climate. One of the unique climate elements to be studied is rainfall, because rainfall has a different pattern in each region, this different rainfall pattern is caused by several climate phenomena factors that affect the rainfall pattern, including El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). Medan City is the capital of North Sumatra province which is one of the areas in the flood-prone category in North Sumatra, where the factor of flooding is due to rainfall events in a long period of time, so the author wants to know which climatic phenomena factors can affect rainfall events in Medan city by using Machine Learning technology through the Matlab application, where in this study has a method by forming four combination models, namely the combination of the influence of IOD, SOI and MJO; second combination of IOD and SOI; third combination of SOI and MJO; and fourth combination of MJO and IOD, these four combinations will be the rainfall value of the four models. Furthermore, the rainfall value of the model is compared with the observed rainfall value and verification test using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and correlation. Then the calculation of the comparison between the four rainfall models with the observed rainfall obtained the lowest MAE value during the SOI and MJO phenomenon of 15.0 mm and the highest correlation value during the IOD and SOI and SOI and MJO phenomena. So it is concluded that the combination of SOI and MJO has the best verification value. This shows that based on Machine Learning modeling, the model shown as the best predictor in Medan city is when the model combination consists of SOI and MJO.
印度尼西亚地形条件多样,气候独特。需要研究的独特气候因素之一是降雨,因为每个地区的降雨模式不同,这种不同的降雨模式是由影响降雨模式的几种气候现象因素引起的,包括厄尔尼诺南方涛动(ENSO)、印度洋偶极子(IOD)和麦登-朱利安涛动(MJO)。棉兰市是北苏门答腊省的首府,北苏门答腊省是北苏门答腊易发洪水的地区之一,洪水的因素是由于长时间的降雨事件,因此作者想通过Matlab应用程序使用机器学习技术来了解哪些气候现象因素会影响棉兰市的降雨事件,其中,本研究有一种方法,通过形成四个组合模型,即IOD、SOI和MJO的影响组合;IOD和SOI的第二组合;SOI和MJO的第三种组合;MJO和IOD的第四个组合,这四个组合将是四个模型的降雨量值。此外,将模型的降雨量与观测降雨量进行了比较,并使用平均绝对误差(MAE)和相关性进行了验证试验。然后,将四个降雨模型与观测到的降雨量进行比较计算,得出SOI和MJO现象期间的MAE值最低为15.0mm,IOD和SOI以及SOI和MJ现象期间的相关值最高。因此,SOI和MJO的组合具有最佳的验证价值。这表明,基于机器学习建模,棉兰市的最佳预测模型是当模型组合由SOI和MJO组成时。
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引用次数: 0
The Effect of Different Liquid on Temperature Uniformity and Stability in Microbath 7102 不同液体对7102微浴温度均匀性和稳定性的影响
Waslina Rangkuti, Kerista Tarigan, S. Humaidi, M. Situmorang, E. Frida, Yahya Darmawan
Microbath Fluke Type 7102 is used for thermometer calibration. In the calibration process, Microbath uses liquid media as heat conductor. Liquid media in Microbath during the calibration process there is a value of uniformity and temperature stability. The value of temperature uniformity and stability is an influential component in determining the value of measurement uncertainty (U95). The smaller the U95 value, the better the calibration results. This is a factor in this study to analyse the uniformity and temperature stability of liquid types of Water, Methanol and Glycol. The uniformity test method is carried out using 5 (five) point measurements, where the reference point is in the middle. The stability test method uses the measurement of one reference point. Uniformity and stability values are connected to determine the uncertainty of measurement value using the GUM (Guide to the expression of Uncertainty in Measurement) method. The analysis showed that Methanol is more homogeneous than Glycol and Water, with values of 0.0855 ºC < 0.0942 ºC < 0.1030 ºC. Water is more stable than Methanol and Glycol, with values of 0.0021 ºC < 0.0027 ºC < 0.0028 ºC. The time to stabilise Methanol is better than Water and Glycol. Methanol can be stabilised with ± 35 - 40 minutes, Water needs ± 38 - 40 minutes and Glycol needs ± 48 - 50 minutes. The relationship between uniformity and temperature stability is that the smaller the uniformity and stability values, the smaller the U95 of a calibration result. The U95 value of Methanol 0.11 ºC, Glycol 0.12 ºC and Water is 0.13 ºC.
7102型Micropath Fluke用于温度计校准。在校准过程中,Micropath使用液体介质作为导热体。微通道中的液体介质在校准过程中存在一定的均匀性和温度稳定性。温度均匀性和稳定性的值是确定测量不确定度(U95)值的一个有影响的组成部分。U95值越小,校准结果越好。这是本研究中分析水、甲醇和乙二醇液体类型的均匀性和温度稳定性的一个因素。均匀性测试方法使用5(五)个点测量进行,其中参考点位于在中间。稳定性测试方法使用一个参考点的测量。使用GUM(测量不确定度表达指南)方法连接均匀性和稳定性值以确定测量值的不确定度。分析表明,甲醇比乙二醇和水更均匀,其值为0.0855ºC<0.0942ºC<0.1030ºC。水比甲醇和乙二醇更稳定,其值为0.0021ºC<0.0027ºC<0.0028ºC。稳定甲醇的时间比水和乙二醇好。甲醇需要±35-40分钟才能稳定,水需要±38-40分钟,乙二醇需要±48-50分钟。均匀性和温度稳定性之间的关系是,均匀性和稳定性值越小,校准结果的U95就越小。甲醇0.11ºC、乙二醇0.12ºC和水的U95值为0.13ºC。
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引用次数: 0
Rainfall Characteristics In Medan City With Pearson Correlation Analysis (Case Study Of February 27, 2022) 基于Pearson相关分析的棉兰市降雨特征(以2022年2月27日为例)
Endah Paramita, S. Humaidi, Yahya Darmawan
February is climatologically the first peak of the dry season in the North Sumatra region, but floods can still occur. This study analyzes the characteristics of rainfall patterns that occur during extreme rainfall that occurred in the Medan area on February 27, 2022 which resulted in flooding in several areas in Medan with Pearson correlation. The data used are rainfall data, satellite data, radar and other atmospheric dynamics analysis data. Based on dynamic analysis on February 27, 2022, the growth of CB clouds began at 14.00 WIB reaching its peak at 17.00 WIB where the peak temperature of the cloud reached 82.4 ° C and cloud growth lasted until 21.00 WIB, where the rain lasted long enough to cause hydrometeorological disasters (floods) to occur. The Pearson correlation coefficient method (r) used to analyze the relationship between rainfall and DMI, ENSO, SST Anomalies and SOI conditions can be seen that the dominant influence is SST Anomalies and SOI, where in February conditions that affect rainfall are ENSO with a correlation value of 0.36272 and SST Anomalies with a correlation value of 0.37548.
二月是北苏门答腊地区旱季的第一个气候高峰,但洪水仍然可能发生。本文利用Pearson相关分析了2022年2月27日发生在棉兰地区的极端降雨期间的降雨模式特征,该降雨导致棉兰地区多个地区发生洪水。使用的数据有降雨数据、卫星数据、雷达和其他大气动力学分析数据。根据2022年2月27日的动态分析,CB云的增长开始于14.00 WIB,在17.00 WIB达到峰值,云的峰值温度达到82.4°C,云的增长持续到21.00 WIB,降雨持续时间足够长,导致水文气象灾害(洪水)的发生。利用Pearson相关系数法(r)分析降水与DMI、ENSO、SST距平和SOI条件的关系可以看出,主要影响因素是SST距平和SOI,其中2月份影响降水的条件是ENSO,相关值为0.36272,SST距平相关值为0.37548。
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引用次数: 0
Implementation of Monte Carlo Simulation in Evaluation of The Uncertainty of Rainfall Measurement 蒙特卡罗模拟在雨量测量不确定度评定中的应用
Romeo Kondouw, Kerista Tarigan, S. Humaidi, M. Situmorang, Mardiningsi Mardiningsi, Yahya Darmawan
Many factors trigger the uncertainty of rainfall measurement. Several factors can be related to the instruments, weather conditions, and acquisition methods. The degree of uncertainty could be obtained through the calibration process. In principle, rain gauges are calibrated based on the standard process ruled by ISO/IEC 17025 using the law of propagation of uncertainty (LPU). However, LPU requires complex and complicated mathematical calculations. An alternative approach is needed to evaluate measurement uncertainty besides the LPU method. This research used the Monte Carlo method to determine the uncertainty during the rainfall measurement. This method involves repeated random simulations by providing probability distribution on the input and output of rainfall measurement. The results showed that the Monte Carlo method can accurately determine the uncertainty of rainfall measurement. In addition, the uncertainty analysis also showed that instrument inaccuracy is the most significant factor that causes the uncertainty of rainfall measurement.
许多因素引发了降雨量测量的不确定性。几个因素可能与仪器、天气条件和采集方法有关。不确定度可以通过校准过程获得。原则上,雨量计是根据ISO/IEC 17025规定的标准过程,使用不确定度传播定律(LPU)进行校准的。然而,LPU需要复杂的数学计算。除了LPU方法外,还需要一种替代方法来评估测量不确定度。本研究采用蒙特卡罗方法来确定降雨测量过程中的不确定性。该方法通过提供降雨测量输入和输出的概率分布,涉及重复的随机模拟。结果表明,蒙特卡罗方法可以准确地确定降雨测量的不确定度。此外,不确定度分析还表明,仪器不准确是造成降雨量测量不确定度的最重要因素。
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引用次数: 0
The Effect of Resistivity of Used Cooking Oil on The Quality of Palm Cooking Oil 废食用油电阻率对棕榈油品质的影响
Masherlina Masherlina, Kerista Tarigan, S. Humaidi
Indonesia is a country with a large area of oil palm plantations, so there are many factories for the production of cooking oil. Indonesian people use a lot of cooking oil because processed food in Indonesia is mostly fried which causes a lot of used cooking oil to be wasted. The purpose of this study was to determine the resistivity of used cooking oil on the quality of palm cooking oil which can be useful in the field of renewable energy and reduce environmental pollution due to excessive waste of palm cooking oil which can cause damage to aquatic ecosystems, pollute the soil, and cause health problems. Used cooking oil can be processed properly so it is not harmful to the environment and health. One of the steps in processing used cooking oil is to know its resistivity value as the beginning of the refining process. Used cooking oil has a resistivity value that contrasts with soil so it is easy to interpret. Thus it is expected to know the resistivity value of used palm cooking oil. The results of this test obtained the resistivity value of used cooking oil after frying five times, namely 13.320 Ohm meter.
印度尼西亚是一个拥有大面积油棕榈种植园的国家,因此有许多生产食用油的工厂。印尼人使用大量食用油,因为印尼的加工食品大多是油炸食品,这导致大量用过的食用油被浪费。本研究的目的是确定用过的食用油对棕榈食用油质量的电阻率,棕榈食用油可用于可再生能源领域,并减少因棕榈食用油过度浪费而造成的环境污染,因为棕榈食用油会对水生生态系统造成破坏,污染土壤,并导致健康问题。用过的食用油可以经过适当的处理,所以不会对环境和健康有害。处理用过的食用油的步骤之一是在精炼过程开始时了解其电阻率值。用过的食用油的电阻率值与土壤形成对比,因此很容易解释。因此,期望知道使用过的棕榈烹饪油的电阻率值。该测试的结果获得了用过的食用油经过五次油炸后的电阻率值,即13.320欧姆表。
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引用次数: 0
Comparison of Clinical Codes with Standards of Genitourinary Disease in Public Hospital of Sidoarjo 西多阿霍市公立医院泌尿生殖系统疾病临床规范与标准的比较
Vina Fauzia, U. Nisak, C. Cholifah
The accuracy of data diagnosis is important for clinical data management, reimbursement, and  issues related to healthcare and services. Based on preliminary observations, it was found that the inaccuracy of the diagnosis code maker with the genitourinary disease standard at the  Sidarjo District Hospital. The purpose of this study was to find out the comparison of coder clinical codes with genitourinary disease standards at the sidoarjo district hospital. The method used was quantitative with random sampling techniques presented  in the form of frequency tables and cross tabulations and tested using the chi-square test. This study used medical records for inpatient genitourinary cases in 2022,   with a total sample of 80 medical records. The results showed that completeness, timeliness,  and accuracy had a significant influence on coding accuracy. Completness ( completeness of  supporting information) obtained 58,8% complete medical record documents and 51.3% incomplete medical record documents (p=0.012). Accuracy (coding accuracy):52.5% of medical  record documents were accurate and 47.5% of medical record documents were inaccurate  (p=0,0001). This study suggests improving the quality of coding by conducting coding training  and evaluating coding audits to support coding speed.
数据诊断的准确性对于临床数据管理、报销以及与医疗保健和服务相关的问题非常重要。根据初步观察,发现Sidarjo地区医院的诊断代码制定者与泌尿生殖系统疾病标准不准确。本研究的目的是找出西多阿霍地区医院编码器临床代码与泌尿生殖系统疾病标准的比较。所使用的方法是定量的,随机抽样技术以频率表和交叉表的形式呈现,并使用卡方检验进行测试。这项研究使用了2022年住院泌尿生殖系统病例的医疗记录,共有80份医疗记录样本。结果表明,完整性、及时性和准确性对编码的准确性有显著影响。完整性(支持信息的完整性)获得了58.8%的完整病历文件和51.3%的不完整病历文件(p=0.012)。准确性(编码准确性):52.5%的病历文件准确,47.5%的病历文档不准确(p=0.0001)。这项研究建议通过进行编码培训和评估编码审计来提高编码质量,以支持编码速度。
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引用次数: 0
Study of the Utilization of WRF Model Output Data to Produce Daily Flood Forecast Maps in the North Sumatra Region 利用WRF模型输出数据制作北苏门答腊地区每日洪水预报图的研究
M. Sirait, S. Humaidi, M. Sinambela, M. Situmorang, E. Frida
Flood is a natural disaster that often occurs in Indonesia. Currently, flood events are relatively difficult to predict because floods generally occur suddenly in uncertain periods. Extreme rainfall is a major factor for the occurrence of floods. Considering that floods can be caused by heavy rainfall events within a few hours, it is necessary to produce daily flood forecasts for flood disaster mitigation. This study aims to test the accuracy of utilizing rainfall forecast data from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to create daily flood forecast maps. The data used in this study include Global Forecast System (GFS) data, BMKG rainfall measurement data which spread across several points in North Sumatra Province, and flood incident reports from BNPB. Data processing is carried out by Geospatial Information System (GIS) using Quantum-GIS, which includes weighting and scoring the parameters of soil type, slope, land elevation, river density, and land cover to produce Flood Prone Maps, then integrated with rainfall data to produce Daily Flood Forecast Maps. The case studies of flood events in this study are August 28 and November 28, 2022. The results showed that the spatial forecast of flood potential (WRF) has a pattern in accordance with the flood event area. Therefore, the WRF model output rainfall prediction data can be used to create a daily flood forecast map in the North Sumatra region.
洪水是印度尼西亚经常发生的自然灾害。目前,洪水事件相对难以预测,因为洪水通常在不确定的时期突然发生。极端降雨是洪水发生的主要因素。考虑到强降雨事件可能在几个小时内引发洪水,有必要编制每日洪水预报,以缓解洪水灾害。本研究旨在测试利用天气研究与预测(WRF)模型的降雨预测数据创建每日洪水预报图的准确性。本研究中使用的数据包括全球预报系统(GFS)数据、分布在北苏门答腊省多个点的BMKG降雨量测量数据,以及BNPB的洪水事件报告。数据处理由地理空间信息系统(GIS)使用Quantum GIS进行,包括对土壤类型、坡度、土地高程、河流密度和土地覆盖等参数进行加权和评分,以生成洪水倾向图,然后与降雨数据相结合,生成日洪水预报图。本研究中的洪水事件案例研究为2022年8月28日和11月28日。结果表明,潜在洪水的空间预测具有与洪水发生区域一致的模式。因此,WRF模型输出的降雨量预测数据可用于创建北苏门答腊地区的每日洪水预报图。
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引用次数: 0
Relationship between Using Masks and Incidence of Acute Respiratory Infection in Marble Stone Workers 大理石石材工人口罩使用与急性呼吸道感染的关系
Wiwid Yuliastuti, S. Suharyoto, S. Suciati, Leny Indrawati, Aesthetica Islamy
The use of personal protective equipment masks is an important factor in protecting workers from potential hazards while working in marble processing. Many diseases are caused by exposure to dust, especially acute respiratory infections (ARI). The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between the use of masks and the incidence of ARI in marble stone workers in Besole village, Besuki Tulungagung district. The design of this study is an analytic association using a cross-sectional design. The population is all marble stone workers in Besole village, Besuki Tulungagung district. The sample size is 44 respondents, the sampling technique uses purposive sampling. The independent variable of this study is the use of masks and the dependent variable is the incidence of ARI. Data collection using a questionnaire was given to marble workers in Besole Village, Besuki Tulungagung sub-district. Data analysis used the Spearman Rho statistical test with Confidence Interval (CI): of 95% or  = 0.05. The results showed that most of the respondents, 28 respondents (64%), wore masks and half of the respondents, 22 respondents (50%), had mild ARI. The statistical test results showed p value = 0.015 < α = 0.05 which means H0 was rejected so it can be stated that there is a relationship between the use of masks and the incidence of ARI in marble stone workers. The conclusion from the results of this study is the use of masks when working properly and correctly as self-protection from dust so that marble workers do not experience pain, especially ARI.
在大理石加工过程中,使用个人防护设备口罩是保护工人免受潜在危险的重要因素。许多疾病是由接触灰尘引起的,尤其是急性呼吸道感染(ARI)。本研究的目的是确定Besuki Tulungung区Besole村大理石石工人使用口罩与ARI发病率之间的关系。本研究的设计是一个使用横截面设计的分析关联。人口都是Besuki Tulungung区Besole村的大理石工人。样本量为44名受访者,抽样技术采用有目的的抽样。本研究的自变量是口罩的使用,因变量是ARI的发生率。使用问卷对Besuki Tulungung街道Besole村的大理石工人进行了数据收集。数据分析采用Spearman-Rho统计检验,置信区间(CI):95%或 = 0.05。结果显示,大多数受访者(28名受访者(64%))戴着口罩,一半受访者(22名受访者(50%))患有轻度ARI。统计测试结果显示p值=0.015<α=0.05,这意味着H0被拒绝,因此可以说,使用口罩与大理石石工人ARI的发生率之间存在关系。这项研究的结果得出的结论是,在正确工作时使用口罩是为了保护大理石工人免受灰尘的伤害,这样他们就不会感到疼痛,尤其是ARI。
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引用次数: 0
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