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The US—Russia relations since Trump took office and China’s policy choices 特朗普上台以来的美俄关系与中国的政策选择
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/11701/SPBU06.2019.402
Feng Yujun
Since Donald Trump took office in early 2017, US—Russian relations have not only failed to “unfreeze,” but have deteriorated even further with continued US sanctions against Russia and increasingly bitter “diplomatic wars,” “media wars,” and intensified geopolitical rivalry in the Middle East. The author of this paper proposes that continuous deterioration of US—Russian relations is not only the result of the disparity of power, mutual misalignment, and the sharp decline of mutual trust between the two countries, but also the result of a strong influence of their respective domestic political factors, reflecting that the US—Russian conflict is accelerating the transition from an exogenous to endogenous one. The paper also argues that for a long time to come, “limited rivalry” will become the “new normal” of US—Russian relations. Against the background of profound adjustment and complex change ability of the international situation, China needs to take a more active and proactive lead in the positive interaction between China, the United States and Russia, avoid further escalation of the competition between the major powers, and jointly deal with the increasingly serious global and regional challenges through the trilateral cooperation between Russia, China and the United States.
自2017年初唐纳德·特朗普上台以来,美俄关系不仅没有“解冻”,反而进一步恶化,美国继续对俄罗斯实施制裁,“外交战”、“媒体战”愈演愈烈,中东地缘政治竞争加剧。本文认为,美俄关系的持续恶化不仅是两国实力悬殊、相互错位、互信急剧下降的结果,也是两国各自国内政治因素强烈影响的结果,反映出美俄冲突正在加速由外生冲突向内生冲突转变。文章还认为,在未来很长一段时间内,“有限对抗”将成为美俄关系的“新常态”。在国际形势深刻调整和复杂变化能力的背景下,中国需要更加积极主动地引领中美俄良性互动,避免大国竞争进一步升级,通过中俄美三边合作,共同应对日益严峻的全球和地区挑战。
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引用次数: 0
Russia and France: Features of cultural dialogue at the beginning of the 21st century 俄罗斯与法国:21世纪初文化对话的特征
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/spbu06.2022.107
Julia E. Nikolaeva
This article investigates contemporary Russian and French cultural relations and peculiarities and new formats of cultural interaction between Russia and France. At the beginning of the 21st century, the cultural contacts of these countries were enriched by new interesting forms based on two basic principles: the scale of the event and the dialog principle of its organization. These two new principles could not be better embodied in such a new form of cultural exchange as cultural cross-years, which since 2010 have been regularly included in cultural exchanges between Russia and France. Russia and France have successfully held a cross-year of cultural, linguistic, and literary exchanges, as well as cultural tourism, regional cooperation, etc. Along with the emergence of new forms of Russian and French cultural ties at the beginning of the 21st century, there is a noticeable expansion of their actors, primarily due to the involvement of civil society, regions, and public organizations in the dialog. These actors conduct much work aimed at the decentralization of cultural ties, allowing them to actively develop in the extra-state plane. New ideas are also emerging, such as the twinning not only cities, but also of individual cultural monuments. The pandemic has brought many novel forms and ideas related to the organization of cultural events based on digital, remote, and online technologies into Russian and French cultural ties. This allowed Russia and France to keep cultural ties without significant losses and developing communication under quarantine restrictions. The conclusions drawn by the author of the article allow us to state that sanctions and political differences have not seriously affected Russian and French cultural ties. They proved resilient when faced with the serious challenges brought by the 21st century.
本文考察了当代俄法两国的文化关系以及俄法两国文化互动的特点和新形式。在21世纪初,这些国家的文化交流被基于两个基本原则的新的有趣形式所丰富:活动的规模和组织的对话原则。这两个新原则在文化交流的新形式——文化跨年中得到了更好的体现。自2010年以来,文化跨年已定期纳入俄法文化交流。俄罗斯和法国成功举办了跨年的文化、语言和文学交流,以及文化旅游、区域合作等。随着21世纪初俄法两国文化联系新形式的出现,其参与者显著扩大,这主要是由于民间社会、地区和公共组织参与对话。这些行动者进行了大量旨在分散文化联系的工作,使他们能够在国家之外的层面上积极发展。新的想法也出现了,比如不仅是城市的结对,而且是个别文化古迹的结对。疫情给俄罗斯和法国的文化纽带带来了许多与组织基于数字、远程和在线技术的文化活动有关的新形式和新想法。这使得俄罗斯和法国在没有重大损失的情况下保持了文化联系,并在隔离限制下发展了交流。文章作者得出的结论使我们能够指出,制裁和政治分歧并没有严重影响俄罗斯和法国的文化关系。面对21世纪带来的严峻挑战,他们表现出了顽强的韧劲。
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引用次数: 0
Political Influence of Online Platforms: YouTube’s Place in European Politics 网络平台的政治影响:YouTube在欧洲政治中的地位
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/spbu06.2021.206
Y. Kolotaev, Konrad Kollnig
Social media platforms are today one of the primary means of political expression and campaigning. The growing entanglement of politics with the online sphere raises interest in how these new types of media shape the social and political reality. While previous research tends to focus on Twitter and Facebook, limited works exists on the political influence of YouTube. This is even though YouTube is the second-most visited website and provides unique ways of engaging users and disseminating political messages through the combination of rich communication functionality with immersive audio-visual media content. Unfortunately, the influence of social media platforms such as YouTube on politics is difficult to analyse, due a lack of transparency and qualitative data. Independent researchers and the public have limited ways to access meaningful statistics about the video service. This article derives a taxonomy to classify YouTube’s ways of political influence from a case-study-driven analysis of YouTube in the European political landscape. Our taxonomy aligns with traditional theoretical concepts from media effects theory, particularly framing, priming and agenda-setting. We provide a brief discussion of the current regulatory landscape in the EU, and highlight gaps that might need improvement. We conclude by considering the question of whether YouTube is a political actor.
如今,社交媒体平台是政治表达和竞选活动的主要手段之一。政治与网络领域的纠缠日益加深,引发了人们对这些新型媒体如何塑造社会和政治现实的兴趣。虽然之前的研究倾向于关注Twitter和Facebook,但关于YouTube的政治影响的研究有限。尽管YouTube是访问量第二高的网站,并且通过将丰富的沟通功能与沉浸式视听媒体内容相结合,提供吸引用户和传播政治信息的独特方式。不幸的是,由于缺乏透明度和定性数据,YouTube等社交媒体平台对政治的影响很难分析。独立研究人员和公众获取有关视频服务的有意义统计数据的途径有限。本文通过对YouTube在欧洲政治格局中的案例分析,推导出一种分类方法,对YouTube的政治影响方式进行分类。我们的分类与媒体效应理论的传统理论概念保持一致,特别是框架、启动和议程设置。我们对欧盟当前的监管格局进行了简要的讨论,并强调了可能需要改进的差距。最后,我们考虑YouTube是否是一个政治行动者的问题。
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引用次数: 0
The “images of Versailles” and the transformations of international relations in Europe after 1989–1990: views of Western European and US experts “凡尔赛的形象”与1989-1990年后欧洲国际关系的转变:西欧和美国专家的观点
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/11701/spbu06.2019.302
I. Magadeev
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引用次数: 0
Evolution of the US — Russia relations in the area of international information security: A retrospective study 美俄关系在国际信息安全领域的演变:回顾研究
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/spbu06.2022.203
E. Zinovieva, Inna O. Yanikeeva
In November 2021, Russia and the United States submitted a draft joint resolution on international information security to the UNGA First Committee, which was a significant victory for Russian diplomacy in the formation of an international information security regime. For a long time, Russian-American relations in the field of international information security have been developing on the basis of a confrontational model, while these two states are the most active actors in the global information sphere. The general trends in the formation of an international information security regime depend on the nature of relations between countries. The article presents a historical analysis of cooperation between Moscow and Washington in the digital environment and assesses the impact of the historical experience of interaction on the prospects for the development of bilateral cooperation in the field of international information security. Methodologically, the authors base the research from the theory of defensive realism, according to which the factor of perception of the priority of threats to international information security is an important factor in bilateral interaction. The more significant threats are perceived from the point of view of national security, the more likely is the development and deepening of international cooperation aimed at shaping the rules of conduct in this area. The article examines the evolution of threats to international information security in historical retrospect. Based on the perception of the priority of threats, the evolution of the formats of bilateral interaction in the field of international information security is shown. It has been proved that the perception of the priority of threats in the field of international information security contributes to the development and deepening of bilateral cooperation, which in the future can develop into a full-fledged regime of international information security, based on the rules of responsible behavior of states in the global information space.
2021年11月,俄罗斯和美国向联大第一委员会提交了国际信息安全联合决议草案,这是俄罗斯外交在构建国际信息安全机制方面取得的重大胜利。长期以来,俄美在国际信息安全领域的关系一直在对抗模式的基础上发展,两国是全球信息领域最活跃的行动者。国际信息安全机制形成的总体趋势取决于国家间关系的性质。本文对莫斯科和华盛顿在数字环境下的合作进行了历史分析,并评估了互动的历史经验对国际信息安全领域双边合作发展前景的影响。在方法论上,作者基于防御现实主义理论进行研究,根据该理论,对国际信息安全威胁优先级的感知因素是双边互动的重要因素。从国家安全的角度看,威胁越严重,就越有可能发展和深化旨在制定这一领域行为规则的国际合作。文章回顾了国际信息安全威胁的历史演变。基于对威胁优先级的认识,展示了国际信息安全领域双边互动形式的演变。事实证明,对国际信息安全领域威胁的优先次序的认识有助于双边合作的发展和深化,未来可以发展成为基于全球信息空间国家负责任行为规则的完整的国际信息安全制度。
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引用次数: 0
Why Yalta-Potsdam order has not been revised? 为什么没有修改雅尔塔-波茨坦订单?
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/11701/spbu06.2019.210
N. Tsvetkova
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引用次数: 0
David Chandler’s analysis of resilience-thinking and political realism in international relation 大卫·钱德勒对国际关系中的弹性思维与政治现实主义的分析
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/11701/spbu06.2019.104
N. Gudalov
Resilience is an increasingly popular concept used to explore how systems respond to various challenges. It has been actively used in International Relations. Here, resilience has been analyzed in predominantly postmodernist terms. Yet, I take resilience-thinking, as explored by one of its leading scholars, David Chandler, and show that it has some affinities with political realism, understood, contra stereotypes, as a complex tradition of political reflection. I also apply the insights gained to the recent overarching turn to resilience in the EU’s external action. The article demonstrates that the novel stress of resilience-thinking on the complexity of the contemporary world is very important, but that it is useful to contextualize it and relate it, if in part, to the age-old concerns of the realist tradition, and to identify similar strengths and problems in both approaches. Both resilience-thinking and realism have drawn our attention to the plural aspect of politics. However, they may face problems concerning elements of relativism, a claim to know the ‘reality’ best, the use of fixed categories, irresponsibility, and the reification of an understanding of reality as a permanent crisis. All these strengths and problems will likely play out in the EU’s external action and even its internal development.
弹性是一个越来越流行的概念,用于探索系统如何应对各种挑战。它在国际关系中得到了积极的应用。在这里,人们主要用后现代主义的术语来分析弹性。然而,我以由其主要学者之一大卫·钱德勒(David Chandler)所探索的弹性思维为例,表明它与政治现实主义有一些相似之处,被理解为一种复杂的政治反思传统,与刻板印象相反。我还将这些见解应用于最近欧盟对外行动的总体转向弹性。本文表明,弹性思维对当代世界复杂性的新强调是非常重要的,但将其置于背景中并将其部分地与现实主义传统的古老关切联系起来,并确定两种方法中相似的优势和问题是有用的。弹性思维和现实主义都把我们的注意力吸引到了政治的多元方面。然而,他们可能会面临一些问题,包括相对主义的元素、声称最了解“现实”、使用固定的范畴、不负责任,以及把对现实的理解具体化为一种永久的危机。所有这些优势和问题都可能在欧盟的对外行动甚至内部发展中发挥作用。
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引用次数: 0
How physicians influenced Dutch nuclear weapon policies: A civil society case-study 医生如何影响荷兰的核武器政策:一个民间社会案例研究
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/spbu06.2021.407
P. Buijs
This case study describes activities from the Dutch Association for Medical Polemology (IPPNW- affiliate NVMP-Physicians for Peace) from 1969 onwards, focused primarily on recent strategies, employed by civil society, to influence Dutch policies regarding the urgency of abolishing nuclear weapons due to their unacceptable medical and humanitarian consequences. By itself and together with other civil society organisations, NVMP promoted an active Dutch nuclear disarmament policy, specifically regarding the Non-Proliferation Treaty with its Article- VI Global Zero-obligations, and the United Nations’ Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). Several achievements of the NVMP are highlighted, from the Medical Appeal (2015) to the 50th anniversary Congress (Hague Peace Palace, November 26, 2019) and its aftermath. After presenting his major findings and conclusions, the author shares some experience- based, policy-oriented recommendations about the specific physicians’ position and their medical-humanitarian message, followed by suggestions on strategies for reaching out to politicians, decision-makers, and statesmen that can help IPPNW affiliates elsewhere, and other civil society organizations, who are promoting a nuclear weapon-free world. Finally, the author petitions to repeat successful early 1980s Russian-American IPPNW initiatives, which were directly aimed at their political leaders. The article concludes with the presentation of one initiative.
本案例研究描述了荷兰医学论战协会(IPPNW-附属机构nmp -和平医生协会)自1969年以来开展的活动,主要侧重于民间社会最近采取的战略,以影响荷兰关于废除核武器的紧迫性的政策,因为核武器造成了不可接受的医疗和人道主义后果。NVMP本身并与其他民间社会组织一起,推动了荷兰积极的核裁军政策,特别是关于《不扩散条约》及其第六条全球零义务和《联合国禁止核武器条约》(TPNW)的政策。会议重点介绍了国家抗疫方案的几项成就,从医疗呼吁(2015年)到50周年大会(2019年11月26日,海牙和平宫)及其后续活动。在介绍了他的主要发现和结论之后,作者就医生的具体立场及其医疗人道主义信息分享了一些基于经验、面向政策的建议,随后提出了与政治家、决策者和政治家接触的策略建议,这些建议可以帮助世界其他地方的IPPNW附属机构和其他促进无核武器世界的民间社会组织。最后,作者请求重复1980年代早期成功的俄美IPPNW倡议,这些倡议直接针对其政治领导人。文章最后提出了一项倡议。
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引用次数: 0
The geopolitical origins of Russian strategic culture and its enlightenment in China 俄国战略文化的地缘政治渊源及其对中国的启示
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/spbu06.2022.402
Lizhi Qin
The main challenge for Russia in the post-Cold War era is that the geographical space available for strategic autonomy has been greatly compressed. Due to the checks and balances of Western powers, the security panic of neighboring countries, and the decline of its own strength after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, it is difficult to maintain the Strategic control model. Russia is torn between imperial historical traditions and nation-state strategic narratives. Will Russia return to the imperial age? The investigation of the geopolitical mechanism of Russian strategic culture is helpful to study and judge its regular behavior pattern. Continental identity, flanking position, and terrestrial claim tradition are three variables which have shaped Russia’s strategic culture. At the same time, the pursuit of sea power, the yearning for modernization in the heartland, and the wise shrinking of tough external forces have verified the logic that Russia’s strategic culture will be adjust dynamically with the change of relative power status and strategic environment. Russian strategic culture shapes strategic motivation dominated by fear and exerts indirect and nonlinear influence on strategic behavior including strategic intention. Risk aversion/risk-taking, the two decision-making preferences for dealing with geopolitical risks, are caused by differences in the degree of fear of power status and the external environment. Through the historical practice of Russian strategic culture investigation, the author believes that: if the current and future development trends show a negative expected trend, then Russia will make necessary revisions to the existing historical experience to suit the current strategic situation. The process-tracking study of Russian imperial history since Peter the Great also verifies the theoretical inferences of this study from case studies. The study of Russian strategic culture will help to promote the deepening and expansion of cooperation between China and Russia. Although the cooperation between the two countries started from the geopolitical pressure of the global strategic offensive of the United States, the beneficial dialogue and communication at the strategic and cultural level can transcend the historical normalcy of the cooperation between the two countries forced by the external geopolitical threats and shape the strategic stability of China and Russia.
俄罗斯在后冷战时代面临的主要挑战是,战略自治的地理空间已被大大压缩。由于西方列强的制衡、周边国家的安全恐慌以及苏联解体后自身实力的下降,战略控制模式难以维持。俄罗斯在帝国历史传统和民族国家战略叙事之间左右为难。俄罗斯会回到帝国时代吗?考察俄罗斯战略文化的地缘政治机制,有助于研究和判断其规律的行为模式。大陆认同、侧翼位置和陆地主张传统是塑造俄罗斯战略文化的三个变量。同时,对海权的追求、对中心地带现代化的向往、对强大外部力量的明智收缩,都验证了俄罗斯战略文化将随着相对实力地位和战略环境的变化而动态调整的逻辑。俄罗斯战略文化塑造了以恐惧为主导的战略动机,对包括战略意图在内的战略行为产生间接的、非线性的影响。风险规避/冒险是应对地缘政治风险的两种决策偏好,是由对权力地位的恐惧程度和外部环境的差异造成的。通过对俄罗斯战略文化考察的历史实践,笔者认为:如果当前和未来的发展趋势呈现出消极的预期趋势,那么俄罗斯将对现有的历史经验进行必要的修正,以适应当前的战略形势。对彼得大帝以来俄罗斯帝国历史的过程跟踪研究也从个案研究中验证了本文的理论推论。对俄罗斯战略文化的研究有助于促进中俄合作的深化和拓展。虽然两国的合作始于美国全球战略攻势的地缘政治压力,但在战略和文化层面的有益对话和沟通可以超越外部地缘政治威胁所迫使的两国合作的历史常态,塑造中俄的战略稳定。
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引用次数: 0
Technology platform competition between the United States and China: Decoupling and sanctions against Huawei 中美技术平台竞争:脱钩与对华制裁
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/spbu06.2021.401
S. Tkachenko, Natalia Zhiglinskaya Wyrsch, Zheng Cui
Decoupling, defined as the deliberate and state-directed severing of economic ties between the world’s two largest economies (the USA and China), is one of the most studied phenomena of contemporary international relations. The growing confrontation between the political systems and military machines of the United States and China extends into the economic sphere and increasingly affects the field of high technology. A number of experts consider the conflict of the modern superpowers for the leading position in the field of the new technologies as a manifestation of techno-nationalism, a new type of mercantilism that plays a key role in industrial policy and world trade of the leading economies of the planet. The article is focused on the new generation of interstate conflict, in which the technological giants act as proxy institutions of U. S. and Chinese state power. The distinctive feature of this new type of conflict is its overtly nonviolent nature. It manifests itself in the use by both sides of tools borrowed from economic sanctions and trade wars of the past. The China — US rivalry in the development and implementation of the latest technologies is a non-military reincarnation of the thermonuclear arms race of the Cold War era. Nowadays the most economically powerful states of the planet, led by the USA, choose instruments of economic coercion to protect the existing status quo in the global system. Such measures allow them to adapt elements of the arms race and power rivalry of past eras to modern conditions.
脱钩,被定义为世界上最大的两个经济体(美国和中国)之间有意和国家主导的经济联系的切断,是当代国际关系中研究最多的现象之一。美国和中国的政治制度和军事机器之间日益加剧的对抗延伸到经济领域,并日益影响到高技术领域。一些专家认为,现代超级大国争夺新技术领域领先地位的冲突是技术民族主义的表现,是一种新型的重商主义,在全球主要经济体的产业政策和世界贸易中起着关键作用。这篇文章关注的是新一代的国家间冲突,在这场冲突中,科技巨头充当了美国和中国国家权力的代理机构。这种新型冲突的显著特点是其明显的非暴力性质。这表现在双方都在使用从过去的经济制裁和贸易战中借来的工具。中美在发展和应用最新技术方面的竞争,是冷战时期热核军备竞赛的非军事版。如今,以美国为首的世界上经济最强大的国家,选择经济胁迫的工具来保护全球体系的现有现状。这些措施使它们能够使过去时代的军备竞赛和权力竞争的因素适应现代条件。
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引用次数: 0
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Vestnik of Saint Petersburg University. International relations
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