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Russia-EU political relations: Evolution and prospects 俄罗斯与欧盟政治关系:演变与前景
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/spbu06.2021.201
Dmitry Danilov
The article is devoted to the analysis of the evolution, nature and content of Russia-EU political relations, formally established by the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) of 1994. The paradigm of building a united Europe and a common European security space in line with overcoming post-bipolar confrontation and the emergence of post-Soviet Russia as well as the European Union, established in 1992, as new actors in international arena became the basis for their cooperative relations, which was built towards strategic partnership. It was strengthened at the turn of the 2000s, including on the basis of mutual strategies of relations, when Russia’s “European choice” was declared and the EU’s “new dynamics” in security and defense dimension were initiated. However, the NATO-centric model of European security and the policy of expanding Euro-Atlantic institutions to the East created a potential for conflict, and Russia-EU cooperation entered a phase of a latent crisis, especially as a result of differing interests in the so-called common neighborhood. Attempts at a new strategic start by the adoption of Russia-EU Roadmaps on the four common spaces and by planning the negotiations on a new basic agreement failed to overcome fundamental disagreements and contradictions. The Ukrainian conflict became the culmination of the Russian-European crisis and fundamentally changed the direction and content of Russia — EU relations. The defining of the future strategy of relations is becoming increasingly acute, which is considered in the article as a challenge of strategic choice for the parties. The author substantiates the prospect of overcoming the “new normality”, which is boils down to maintaining a controlled mutual deterrence, although it does not exclude the option of terminating the Russia-EU legal relations (“breakesit”).
本文旨在分析1994年《伙伴关系与合作协定》(PCA)正式确立的俄欧政治关系的演变、性质和内容。建立一个统一的欧洲和一个共同的欧洲安全空间的范例,与克服后两极对抗和1992年建立的后苏联俄罗斯以及作为国际舞台上新的行动者的欧洲联盟的出现相一致,成为它们建立战略伙伴关系的合作关系的基础。在21世纪初,包括在相互关系战略的基础上,俄罗斯宣布了“欧洲选择”,欧盟在安全和防务方面启动了“新动态”,这一关系得到了加强。然而,以北约为中心的欧洲安全模式和将欧洲-大西洋机构向东扩展的政策产生了潜在的冲突,俄罗斯-欧盟的合作进入了一个潜在危机的阶段,特别是由于在所谓的共同邻国中存在不同的利益。通过关于四个共同空间的俄欧路线图和计划就新的基本协议进行谈判,试图建立一个新的战略起点,但未能克服根本的分歧和矛盾。乌克兰冲突成为俄欧危机的高潮,从根本上改变了俄欧关系的方向和内容。未来关系战略的界定日益尖锐,本文认为这是双方面临的战略选择挑战。作者证实了克服“新常态”的前景,这可以归结为维持一种受控的相互威慑,尽管它不排除终止俄罗斯与欧盟法律关系的选择(“决裂”)。
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引用次数: 1
The French left and Russia: History and modernity 法国左派与俄国:历史与现代性
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/spbu06.2022.105
Ruslan Kostiuk
The article analyzes approaches of France’s leading left forces towards Russia (USSR) from beginning of the 20th century to the present. At beginning of the twentieth century, almost all parts of the French left expressed hatred of the Russian monarchy and, at the same time, solidarity with the struggle of democratic and socialist forces in Russia for freedom and a republic. The question of the attitude to Soviet Russia played a central role in the historic split of the SFIO in 1920 and in the future for decades to come; “the Soviet question” was the line of the watershed between the two leading French left-wing parties, SFIO (SP) and FCP. If the communists from the very creation of the Party took a position of total solidarity with Soviet internal and foreign policy, the socialists, speaking for the development of equal and friendly relations with the Soviet Union, criticized domestic political realities of the Soviet Union and Moscow’s foreign policy. The collapse of the USSR led to serious changes in the perception of Russia in French leftist circles of France. The French left was characterized by an ambiguous attitude towards Boris Yeltsin’s policies. As before, the French left is expressing its sympathy for the Russian people. However, in general, most of the French left movement at present negatively evaluates the socio-economic and domestic political evolution of Russia, as well as Moscow’s foreign policy in the first two decades of the 21st century. First, this applies to positions of the socialists and the Greens. The Communist Party opposes the dignity to the insulating pressure on Moscow. For their part, politicians and power related to left populist and left patriotic direction see Russia as a strategic ally in the struggle for more equitable international relations.
本文分析了20世纪初至今法国主要左翼势力对俄(苏)的态度。在二十世纪初,几乎所有的法国左派都表达了对俄罗斯君主制的仇恨,同时,声援俄罗斯民主和社会主义力量争取自由和共和国的斗争。对苏俄的态度问题在1920年和未来几十年的SFIO历史性分裂中发挥了核心作用;“苏联问题”是法国两大主要左翼政党——社会党(SFIO)和自民党(FCP)之间的分水岭。如果说共产党人从建党之初就采取了完全支持苏联内外政策的立场,那么社会主义者则主张发展同苏联平等友好的关系,批评苏联国内的政治现实和莫斯科的对外政策。苏联解体后,法国左派人士对俄罗斯的看法发生了重大变化。法国左派对叶利钦的政策持模棱两可的态度。和以前一样,法国左派对俄罗斯人民表示同情。然而,总的来说,目前大多数法国左翼运动对俄罗斯的社会经济和国内政治演变以及莫斯科在21世纪头二十年的外交政策持负面评价。首先,这适用于社会主义者和绿党的立场。共产党反对对莫斯科施加隔离压力。与左翼民粹主义和左翼爱国主义方向有关的政治家和权力,则将俄罗斯视为争取更公平国际关系的战略盟友。
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引用次数: 0
The EU normative power in development policy 欧盟在发展政策方面的规范性权力
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/spbu06.2021.406
A. Pogorelskaya
The article examines the peculiarities of EU normative power application in its development policy towards the countries of the Global South. Despite the controversial results of seventy years of efforts by the European Economic Community and then the European Union to promote development, the international situation and the difficulties inside the EU are making the EU intensify its development policy and look for more effective tools. The author tries to identify the reasons for the transformation of approaches in the EU development policy by taking into account the influence of both external and internal factors affecting the EU’s ability to exercise its normative power. It is concluded that, firstly, the internal factors including the EU enlargements, solidarity crisis and Brexit are currently changing the EU’s ability to serve as a normative power in its development policy. Secondly, the EU has not found any alternatives to development policy in solving both global and its own difficulties in normative and geopolitical aspects. Thirdly, the EU is still looking for more effective tools to both facilitate development and exercise its normative power. The practical significance of the research is to create a basis for elaborating and upgrading Russian development policy approaches since it is very limited, but it could be beneficial for Russia in the world arena.
本文考察了欧盟在对全球南方国家的发展政策中规范性权力运用的特殊性。尽管欧洲经济共同体和欧盟70年来促进发展的努力取得了有争议的结果,但国际形势和欧盟内部的困难正促使欧盟加强其发展政策,寻找更有效的工具。作者试图通过考虑影响欧盟行使规范性权力能力的外部和内部因素的影响,找出欧盟发展政策方式转变的原因。首先,欧盟扩大、团结危机和英国脱欧等内部因素正在改变欧盟在发展政策中作为规范性力量的能力。其次,欧盟在解决规范和地缘政治方面的全球和自身困难时,没有找到任何替代发展政策的办法。第三,欧盟仍在寻找更有效的工具,既能促进发展,又能行使规范权力。这项研究的实际意义在于为制定和改进俄罗斯的发展政策方法创造基础,因为它非常有限,但它可能对俄罗斯在世界舞台上有益。
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引用次数: 0
Debating the withdrawal of US nuclear weapons from Europe: What Germany expects from Russia 辩论美国从欧洲撤出核武器:德国对俄罗斯的期望
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/SPBU06.2021.105
Oliver Meier
The recent debate in Germany about nuclear sharing confirmed the broad support among decision-makers for continued involvement in the political dimension of NATO’s sharing arrangements, i. e., participation in the Alliance’s nuclear consultative bodies. At the same time, German decision-makers hold divergent views on continued participation in the operational and technical aspects of nuclear sharing. Russia’s arsenal of approximately 2,000 tactical nuclear weapons is of great concern to Germany and many in Berlin are worried that Russia is systematically expanding its nuclear arsenal. German decision-makers and the government support NATO’s dual-track policy of deterring and engaging Russia. German policy-makers’ arguments on the added military value of forward-deployed US nuclear weapons remain vague and there are few specific ideas about what type of arms control would be best suited to reduce the role and number of tactical nuclear weapons in Europe. There are four frameworks in which tactical nuclear weapons could be discussed with Russia, namely the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), other multilateral fora, the Russian — US bilateral dialogue on strategic stability, and the NATO — Russia Council. If Russia is serious about reducing the role and number of nuclear weapons in Europe, it should accept the reciprocity paradigm and drop some worn-out demands and positions that have little relevance for political debates around arms control in Berlin and elsewhere.
最近在德国关于核共享的辩论证实,决策者广泛支持继续参与北约共享安排的政治层面,即参加联盟的核协商机构。与此同时,德国决策者对继续参与核共享的操作和技术方面持不同意见。俄罗斯大约2000枚战术核武器的武器库引起了德国的极大关注,柏林的许多人担心俄罗斯正在系统地扩大其核武库。德国决策者和政府支持北约遏制和接触俄罗斯的双轨政策。德国决策者关于前沿部署的美国核武器的附加军事价值的论点仍然含糊不清,对于哪种类型的军备控制最适合减少欧洲战术核武器的作用和数量,也没有什么具体的想法。有四个框架可以与俄罗斯讨论战术核武器,即《核不扩散条约》(NPT)、其他多边论坛、俄美战略稳定双边对话和北约-俄罗斯理事会。如果俄罗斯真的想减少核武器在欧洲的作用和数量,它就应该接受互惠模式,放弃一些与柏林和其他地方围绕军备控制的政治辩论无关的陈旧要求和立场。
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引用次数: 1
The emergence of the resilient subject: crisis interaction between state and society 弹性主体的出现:国家与社会的危机互动
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/11701/spbu06.2019.106
Российская Федерация
It is impossible to cope with the system challenges without the effective interaction between state and society.
应对制度挑战离不开国家与社会的有效互动。
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引用次数: 0
Twitter discourse of diplomatic missions to the UN on the conflict in Donbas (2015–2021) 驻联合国外交使团关于顿巴斯冲突的推特话语(2015-2021)
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/spbu06.2022.405
R. Bolgov
The article reflects the results of a study of public political discourse about the conflict in the Donbass, formed by Twitter institutional actors (permanent missions to the UN) and political figures (representatives, their deputies, etc.) of countries — permanent members of the UN Security Council. Chronological scope of the study: from January 2015 (escalation of the armed conflict in the Donbass, starting with the shelling of the stop near Volnovakha and the aggravation of the fighting for the Donetsk airport) to the present (2021). By analyzing the messages in Twitter, some trends in the development of discourse have been revealed. We prove the hypothesis about the existence of two divergent variants of discourse, which in different ways characterize the participants in the conflict in the South-East of Ukraine. To confirm the hypothesis, we use a technique for analyzing political discourse, which includes two levels of analysis: the identification of key conceptual metaphors in both discourse options (positively or negatively characterizing the parties of the conflict) and the identification of the semantic opposition “we — they” realized within the metaphors. We identify the metaphorical images of the conflict parties as a whole and the concepts used, and then the conceptual metaphors they create. We conclude that in both variants of discourse, most conceptual metaphors are based on negative concepts that designate the opposite side of the conflict, and that the discussion is characterized by increased emotional tension.
这篇文章反映了一项关于顿巴斯冲突的公共政治话语研究的结果,该研究由Twitter上的机构参与者(常驻联合国代表团)和政治人物(代表,他们的副手等)组成,这些国家是联合国安理会常任理事国。研究的时间顺序范围:从2015年1月(顿巴斯武装冲突升级,从炮击Volnovakha附近的车站开始,顿涅茨克机场的战斗加剧)到现在(2021年)。通过对Twitter信息的分析,揭示了话语发展的一些趋势。我们证明了关于两种不同话语变体存在的假设,这两种话语变体以不同的方式表征了乌克兰东南部冲突参与者的特征。为了证实这一假设,我们使用了一种分析政治话语的技术,该技术包括两个层面的分析:识别两种话语选择中的关键概念隐喻(积极或消极地表征冲突双方),以及识别隐喻中实现的语义对立“我们-他们”。我们从整体上识别冲突各方的隐喻形象和所使用的概念,然后是他们创造的概念隐喻。我们得出的结论是,在这两种话语变体中,大多数概念隐喻都是基于指定冲突对立面的负面概念,并且讨论的特点是情绪紧张。
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引用次数: 0
Russian-American relations in the public opinion of Russia and the USA 俄美关系在俄美舆论中的作用
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/spbu06.2021.403
Natalia Nemirova
The article is devoted to the study of Russian-American relations through the prism of public opinion of both countries. Foreign political views of citizens are an important element of international politics in the modern information society; they directly affect the development of international relations, providing an opportunity to legitimize and moralize foreign policy decisions of world leaders. Based on open secondary data from opinion polls, the article traces the history of the development of Russian-American relations in the post-Soviet period. The author proves that the formation of anti-Americanism ideas underlying the current reversion of consciousness to the Cold War era was formed by the early 2000s. The personality of President Vladimir Putin and his foreign policy strategy have become decisive for Russian-American relations, but at the same time, negative identification in the system of images of “friends and enemies” of Russians and Americans is realized by value-based foreign policy ideas, rather than by opportunistic situational value judgments. The media produces the existing crisis agenda, influencing the emotional, rather than meaningful response in citizens’ opinions. The events of 2014 triggered the current long-term crisis in Russian-American relations, a characteristic feature of which was the disparity (asymmetry) of mutual perceptions, which intensified after 2018. This period is also characterized by an increase in the ambivalence and turbulence of public opinion, primitivizing its model to the expression of the bloc consciousness “for — against”, “friend — enemy”. For Russians, their stance on the Ukrainian question alongside sanctions remain the key indicators in the perception of America. For Americans, such indicators are the strengthening of totalitarianism in Russia and interference in American elections. There are no short- and medium-term prospects for improving Russian-American relations in the current period.
这篇文章致力于通过两国舆论的棱镜来研究俄美关系。公民的对外政治观点是现代信息社会国际政治的重要组成部分;它们直接影响到国际关系的发展,为世界领导人的外交政策决定提供了合法化和道德化的机会。本文以公开的二手民意调查数据为基础,追溯了后苏联时期俄美关系的发展历史。作者证明,当前冷战意识回归背后的反美主义思想形成于21世纪初。普京总统的个性及其外交政策战略对俄美关系具有决定性作用,但与此同时,俄美两国“敌友”形象体系中的负面认同是通过基于价值的外交政策理念实现的,而不是通过机会主义的情境价值判断。媒体制造了现有的危机议程,影响了公民的情绪反应,而不是有意义的回应。2014年的事件引发了目前俄美关系的长期危机,其特征是相互认知的差异(不对称),这种差异在2018年之后加剧。这一时期的另一个特点是,公众舆论的矛盾心理和动荡加剧,将其模式原始化为“支持-反对”、“友-敌”的集团意识的表达。对俄罗斯人来说,他们在乌克兰问题和制裁问题上的立场仍然是他们对美国看法的关键指标。对美国人来说,这些指标是俄罗斯极权主义的加强和对美国选举的干预。当前时期俄美关系改善的短期和中期前景都不明朗。
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引用次数: 1
How will the conflict in Ukraine affect the system of international information security? 乌克兰冲突将如何影响国际信息安全体系?
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/spbu06.2023.205
S. Sebekin
The article is devoted to the consideration of the main changes taking place in the system of ensuring international information security after the start of a special military operation in Ukraine. An attempt is made to predict the challenges and risks that the IIS system will face in the future. The priority transformations are connected with the negotiation process within the UN, which, in the context of increasing political antagonism between the key subjects of the dialogue, is becoming increasingly politicized and is beginning to experience some difficulties. It is assumed that in the conditions of the new political reality, the issue of “comprehensive” counteraction to international cybercrime will remain unresolved. There is some fragmentation of the international information security system itself, which is experiencing centrifugal tendencies in terms of promoting alternative approaches to solving key issues in this sphere. Finally, it can be expected that the United States, in interaction with Russia, will more actively engage in a proactive strategy of so-called defend forward, which should be implemented through the concept of persistent engagement. The preliminary conclusions demonstrated by the actions in Ukraine regarding the role and place of cyber attacks directly within the framework of the armed conflict are also considered. It is assumed that in the near future cyber attacks will not be considered as a means of achieving real strategic effects on the battlefield, where conventional weapons play a dominant role. An attempt is made to give some recommendations on maintaining a certain dynamic of the development of the IIS system.
本文致力于考虑在乌克兰开始特别军事行动后,确保国际信息安全的制度所发生的主要变化。试图预测IIS系统在未来将面临的挑战和风险。优先事项的转变与联合国内部的谈判进程有关,在对话主要主题之间的政治对抗日益加剧的背景下,谈判进程日益政治化,并开始遇到一些困难。据推测,在新的政治现实条件下,“全面”打击国际网络犯罪的问题仍将得不到解决。国际信息安全体系本身存在一些分裂,在促进解决这一领域关键问题的替代方法方面,该体系正在经历离心趋势。最后,可以预期的是,在与俄罗斯的互动中,美国将更积极地参与所谓的前瞻性防御战略,这应该通过持续接触的概念来实施。还审议了乌克兰行动所显示的关于网络攻击直接在武装冲突框架内的作用和地位的初步结论。假设在不久的将来,网络攻击不会被视为在战场上实现真正战略效果的手段,在战场上,常规武器发挥主导作用。试图对IIS系统的开发保持一定的动态性提出一些建议。
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引用次数: 0
“Europe. Ecology — the Greens”: Strategy of national and European identity “欧洲。生态-绿色”:国家和欧洲认同的战略
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/spbu06.2022.104
Galina N. Kaninskaya
This article analyzes reasons for the rise of the “green wave” in France at the national and European elections, as well as the electoral strategy of the party “Europe. Ecology — the Greens” during the presidency of E. Macron. The research purpose is to identify the relationship between national and European strategies in the development of this French party. This dichotomy already emerges from the peculiar spelling of the party’s name through a period and a hyphen between three words, which should indicate two constituent bases of the party that made an application for the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in France in the spring of 2022. The author uses such methods such as general scientific logical methods, comparative analysis, and a systematic approach, but primarily relies on a traditional historical methodology that includes the historical-genetic method and criticism of sources. The author comes to the following conclusions. First, the French “greens” have much more firmly established their positions in the European Parliament, thanks to the initiatives of which many programs on environmental problems are being implemented on a European scale. Second, well-known French environmental activists often head various commissions in the European Parliament for the development and adoption of laws in the field of “green economy”. Third, the ambivalence of the “Europe. Ecology — the Greens” and fluctuations in its strategic course along the line of “center-left/extreme left” impede the development of a clear national strategy. Sympathy for the “greens” among the common people is hampered by their too left-liberal slogans about tolerance towards immigrants and issues of national security, as well as in such important societal issues as childbearing with the help of in vitro fertilization and surrogacy.
本文分析了法国“绿色浪潮”在全国和欧洲选举中兴起的原因,以及“欧洲党”的选举策略。生态学——绿党”,在马克龙担任总统期间。研究的目的是确定国家战略和欧洲战略在这个法国政党的发展之间的关系。这种两分法已经从该党名称的特殊拼写中显露出来,在三个单词之间加上句号和连字符,这应该表明了该党在2022年春季法国总统和议会选举中提出申请的两个选民基础。作者运用了一般科学逻辑方法、比较分析和系统方法等方法,但主要依靠传统的历史方法论,包括历史遗传学方法和来源批评。作者得出以下结论。首先,由于在欧洲范围内实施了许多环境问题项目的倡议,法国的“绿党”在欧洲议会中的地位要牢固得多。其次,著名的法国环保活动家经常领导欧洲议会的各种委员会,以制定和通过“绿色经济”领域的法律。第三,“欧洲”的矛盾心理。生态-绿党”及其沿着“中左翼/极左”路线的战略路线的波动阻碍了明确的国家战略的发展。普通民众对“绿色人士”的同情,被他们过于左倾的自由派口号所阻碍,这些口号包括对移民和国家安全问题的宽容,以及在试管婴儿和代孕等重要社会问题上的宽容。
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引用次数: 0
Latin America faces Eurasian conflicts: assessing regional responses in the age of Russia — United States tensions 拉丁美洲面临欧亚冲突:评估俄美紧张时代的区域反应
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/11701/spbu06.2019.206
A. G. Levaggi
From the ‘August’ crisis in 2008 to the high-scale intervention in the Syrian Civil War there had been increasing tensions between Russia and West that changed the global geopolitical scenario. The bulk of the literature has focused mostly on the bilateral relations between the U.S. and the Russian Federation, and its strategic implications in conflictive regional orders such as the Post-Soviet Space, Middle East and the Black Sea region. By looking at the international impact of regional conflicts in Central Eurasia, this paper seeks to shed light on the strategic triangle in the Western Hemisphere which brings Latin America, next to Washington and Moscow. By using a systemic framework, this article argues that rising tension between US and Russia affects not only the strategic calculations of Latin American chancelleries but also the type of Moscow’s regional strategy which would be more prone to emphasize geopolitical over economic factors, affecting negatively the degree of Russian influence in the region. To assess these arguments, I present two types of empirical elements. On the one hand, I present data about UN General Assembly voting in the 1991–2015 period which shows that there had been a decline in the voting agreement between Latin America and Russia in the last decade, while the region has improved its engagement with the US. On the other hand, I analyze briefly how Argentina, Mexico and Brazil vote in the specific cases of the Georgian and Ukrainian conflicts at the UN General Assembly and UN Security Council.
从2008年的“8月”危机到对叙利亚内战的大规模干预,俄罗斯和西方之间的紧张关系不断加剧,改变了全球地缘政治格局。大部分文献主要集中在美国和俄罗斯联邦之间的双边关系,以及其在后苏联空间、中东和黑海地区等冲突地区秩序中的战略影响。通过观察欧亚大陆中部地区冲突的国际影响,本文试图阐明西半球的战略三角关系,该三角关系将拉丁美洲与华盛顿和莫斯科相邻。通过使用系统框架,本文认为,美俄之间不断上升的紧张局势不仅影响了拉美各国总理的战略计算,而且还影响了莫斯科的地区战略类型,这种战略更倾向于强调地缘政治而不是经济因素,从而对俄罗斯在该地区的影响力产生负面影响。为了评估这些论点,我提出了两种类型的经验要素。一方面,我提供了1991年至2015年期间联合国大会投票的数据,这些数据表明,在过去十年中,拉丁美洲与俄罗斯之间的投票协议有所下降,而该地区改善了与美国的接触。另一方面,我简要分析了阿根廷、墨西哥和巴西在格鲁吉亚和乌克兰冲突的具体情况下在联合国大会和联合国安理会的投票情况。
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引用次数: 0
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Vestnik of Saint Petersburg University. International relations
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