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Political struggle in the UK on the formation of foreign policy in the wake of Brexit 英国脱欧后外交政策形成的政治斗争
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/spbu06.2023.103
E. Ananieva
The 2016 referendum did not bring a decisive advantage to either supporters (Bremainers) or opponents (Brexiters) of Britain’s membership in the European Union, which led to their acute confrontation and a prolonged political crisis in the United Kingdom. The aim of the study is to determine the impact and consequences of the struggle of rival forces in the leading parties of Britain — Conservative and Labour — on their course on the main issues of British foreign policy after the parliamentary elections of 2019 and Britain’s exit from the EU. The struggle of the rival forces goes through the lines of inter- and intra-party division, and its methods go beyond the traditions and unwritten rules previously adopted in the political culture of the United Kingdom. The tough struggle on foreign policy issues is closely linked to domestic politics. The victory of the Conservative Party in the 2019 elections ensured the adoption by Parliament of laws strengthening the executive power to the detriment of the legislative and judicial (who sided with the Bremainers). The documents of the government, parliament, parties and media materials analysis is presented of the methods used by Brexiters and Bremainers to weaken each other, complicating relations with the US and the EU, sacrificing bilateral relations with Russia to their narrow-party interests. The confrontation continues, plunging Britain into a new round of political and economic crisis, which calls into question the ambitious goals of “Global Britain”.
2016年的公投并没有给英国留在欧盟的支持者(留欧派)和反对者(脱欧派)带来决定性的优势,这导致了他们的尖锐对抗和英国长期的政治危机。这项研究的目的是确定2019年议会选举和英国退出欧盟后,英国主要政党保守党和工党中竞争对手的斗争对英国外交政策主要问题的影响和后果。敌对势力的斗争经历了政党之间和政党内部的分裂,其方法超越了英国政治文化中以前采用的传统和不成文规则。外交政策问题上的艰难斗争与国内政治密切相关。保守党在2019年选举中的胜利确保了议会通过了加强行政权力的法律,损害了立法和司法机构(站在留欧派一边)。政府、议会、政党和媒体材料分析的文件展示了脱欧派和留欧派相互削弱对方的方法,使与美国和欧盟的关系复杂化,牺牲与俄罗斯的双边关系,以满足他们的狭隘党派利益。对抗仍在继续,英国陷入了新一轮的政治和经济危机,“全球化英国”的宏伟目标受到了质疑。
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引用次数: 0
“The geopolitics of technology”: International relations and the fourth industrial revolution 技术的地缘政治:国际关系与第四次工业革命
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/spbu06.2022.202
M. Suchkov
Contemporary international relations as well as the life of an individual as we know it would not be possible without the three Industrial revolutions. They have occurred in the course of the last three hundred years of human history and came to be part of a single continuous process of changing technological waves. Each revolution defined how people would live, work, and communicate with one another. Each industrial revolution set the dynamics for international relations and created new political conflicts. The fourth industrial revolution that we are going through today is also accompanied by geopolitical rivalry and develops exponentially, not in a linear projection. It pierces through all layers of human activity and runs the risk of changing the very nature of humans. The character of modern-day technology makes it hard to perceive it through the lens of a mere consumer since technology impacts us as citizens and deals with the three key concepts for people throughout their history: justice, freedom, and power. The author hypothesizes that the three concepts are closely interlinked with the three main megatrends of technology’s influence over politics respectively, — the call for a new social contract, the problem of localization of big data and the associated pursuit of states for digital sovereignty, and the development of artificial intelligence. Therefore, the present work is an attempt to outline some key trajectories in how the new technological wave fractures the three concepts and how all of this impacts international relations.
如果没有三次工业革命,就不可能有今天的国际关系,也不可能有今天的个人生活。它们出现在过去三百年人类历史的进程中,并成为不断变化的技术浪潮的单一连续过程的一部分。每一次革命都定义了人们如何生活、工作和相互交流。每一次工业革命都为国际关系设定了动力,并产生了新的政治冲突。我们今天正在经历的第四次工业革命也伴随着地缘政治的竞争,并以指数方式发展,而不是线性预测。它穿透了人类活动的所有层面,并冒着改变人类本性的风险。现代技术的特点使我们很难通过单纯的消费者的视角来看待它,因为技术影响着我们作为公民,并涉及到人类历史上的三个关键概念:正义、自由和权力。作者假设这三个概念与技术对政治影响的三个主要大趋势密切相关,分别是对新社会契约的呼吁,大数据的本地化问题和相关国家对数字主权的追求,以及人工智能的发展。因此,本文试图概述新技术浪潮如何打破这三个概念以及所有这些如何影响国际关系的一些关键轨迹。
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引用次数: 1
The member states’ contributions to NATO’s policy in Afghanistan during Donald Trump presidency 在唐纳德·特朗普总统任期内,成员国对北约阿富汗政策的贡献
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/11701/spbu06.2019.103
Yulia K. Boguslavskaya
In a currently highly competitive international environment, US goals of consolidating and strengthening NATO as well as bringing its present mission in Afghanistan to successful termination gain in significance. The success of these processes enhances the reputation of the United States as a powerful international actor. I checked the hypothesis that facing sharp critique from the United States president for free riding in NATO, those members who fail to meet the target of 2 per cent of GDP in their defense expenditure would choose to increase significantly their contributions to the Alliance’s efforts in Afghanistan. I did not find enough convincing empirical data to prove it. The contributions of allies rather reflect their power potentials and ambitions they pursue by cooperating in NATO framework. US allies remain able to define the scale of their contribution to collective efforts in NATO framework despite the US pressure. Broadening of the Alliance’s purview after the end of the Cold war provided member states with additional alternatives for choosing types of their involvement. My findings generally support the established view on intra-alliance bargaining process in scholarly literature. A wide range of missions in NATO framework and beyond it facilitates coalition formation for the United States with their numerous allies and partners. At the same time, if more major allies further choose to cooperate with Washington outside NATO, it will undermine its effectiveness and global role.
在当前高度竞争的国际环境中,美国的目标是巩固和加强北约,并使其目前在阿富汗的任务圆满结束。这些进程的成功提高了美国作为一个强大的国际行动者的声誉。我检查了这样一个假设,即面对美国总统对北约搭便车的尖锐批评,那些未能达到其国防开支占国内生产总值2%目标的成员国将选择大幅增加其对北约在阿富汗努力的贡献。我没有找到足够令人信服的经验数据来证明这一点。相反,盟国的贡献反映了他们在北约框架内合作所追求的力量潜力和野心。尽管受到美国的压力,美国的盟友仍然能够确定他们对北约框架内集体努力的贡献规模。冷战结束后,北约职权范围的扩大为成员国选择参与方式提供了更多选择。我的研究结果总体上支持了学术文献中关于联盟内部议价过程的既定观点。北约框架内外的广泛任务促进了美国与其众多盟友和伙伴组成联盟。与此同时,如果更多的主要盟国进一步选择在北约之外与华盛顿合作,这将削弱北约的有效性和全球作用。
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引用次数: 2
“The whole world is indebted to Russians”: Soviet-Canadian cooperation during Second World War “整个世界都亏欠俄国人”:二战期间苏联与加拿大的合作
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/spbu06.2021.409
A. Kubyshkin
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引用次数: 0
Constructing Narratives about the Taliban by Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs 俄罗斯外交部对塔利班的叙述
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/11701/spbu06.2019.208
Konstantin A. Golubev
The paper focuses on the specifics of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s rhetoric about the Taliban Movement during the period between 1999 and 2018. Using a morphological approach to analysis of the narratives produced by the Ministry, it is demonstrated that the main characters within those narratives had gone through significant metamorphoses over the studied period, echoing the shifts in Russia’s self-identification and the latter’s perception of the relevant actors, as well as in its policy towards Afghanistan. Thus, Russia no longer seeks the approval of the international community, nor does it speak like a partner of the West. Rather it tends to act alone by taking the initiative of bringing the Afghan warring parties together at the negotiating table in Moscow. Russia’s representation of the Taliban Movement went a full circle from “a real force existing in Afghanistan” to “a criminal force” that has no legitimacy and back to “an integral element of the Afghan society” with whom seeking a peaceful reconciliation is deemed necessary. Its representation of the United States, on the contrary, changed from “ally” to “foe.” Given that the Russian policy towards Afghanistan is heavily dependent on Russia’s relationship with the United States of America, and if the downward spiral of that relationship continues, one should expect it manifest in a more overt Russian support for the Afghan opposition, resulting in an indirect war by proxy between the two powers in Afghanistan.
该文件重点关注了俄罗斯外交部在1999年至2018年期间对塔利班运动的言论细节。使用形态学方法分析该部制作的叙述,证明这些叙述中的主要人物在研究期间经历了重大转变,与俄罗斯自我认同的转变和后者对相关行动者的看法以及对阿富汗的政策相呼应。因此,俄罗斯不再寻求国际社会的认可,也不再像西方伙伴那样说话。相反,它倾向于单独行动,主动将阿富汗交战各方召集到莫斯科的谈判桌上。俄罗斯对塔利班运动的代表经历了一个完整的循环,从“阿富汗存在的一支真正的力量”到没有合法性的“犯罪力量”,再回到“阿富汗社会不可或缺的组成部分”,与塔利班运动寻求和平和解被认为是必要的。相反,它对美国的代表从“盟友”变成了“敌人”。鉴于俄罗斯对阿富汗的政策严重依赖于俄罗斯与美国的关系,如果这种关系继续螺旋式下降,人们应该期待它表现为俄罗斯对阿富汗反对派的更公开的支持,导致两国之间在阿富汗的间接战争。
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引用次数: 1
The Eu Indo-Pacific Strategy and the China-Russia relations 欧盟印太战略与中俄关系
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/spbu06.2022.306
Y. Hang
The China-Russia relations are facing a changing external environment, including the Indo- Pacific. This article focuses on the EU Indo-Pacific Strategy, which is a new and little-researched theme. It aims to address a central question: what the implications of the EU Indo-Pacific Strategy on the China-Russia relations are. It focuses on the discourse of the EU’s supranational authorities. The qualitative content analysis of that discourse unveils that the nature of this strategy is to enhance the legitimacy and uniqueness of the EU as a global player. It argues that this strategy has important implications for both China and Russia in direct or indirect ways. One main assumption is that the EU’s impact will be more concentrated in low politics than high politics. This article develops two hypotheses. One is that the EU Indo-Pacific Strategy will enhance the West as external pressure to China and Russia in the region, especially on low political issues. The other is that increasing external pressure from the EU and the West in this region highlights the necessity of cooperation between China and Russia. It concludes that while the implications for China and Russia are different respectively, the EU’s ambition as an exogenous factor will compel China and Russia to uplift their bilateral ties.
中俄关系面临包括印太在内的外部环境变化。欧盟印太战略是一个研究较少的新主题。本文旨在回答一个核心问题:欧盟印太战略对中俄关系的影响是什么?它侧重于欧盟超国家当局的话语。对该话语的定性内容分析揭示了这一战略的本质是增强欧盟作为全球参与者的合法性和独特性。文章认为,这一战略对中国和俄罗斯都有直接或间接的重要影响。一个主要的假设是,欧盟的影响将更多地集中在低层政治,而不是高层政治。本文提出了两个假设。一是欧盟的印太战略将增强西方在该地区对中国和俄罗斯的外部压力,特别是在低政治问题上。二是来自欧盟和西方在该地区日益增加的外部压力凸显了中俄合作的必要性。文章的结论是,尽管对中国和俄罗斯的影响各不相同,但欧盟作为一个外部因素的野心将迫使中国和俄罗斯提升双边关系。
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引用次数: 0
India in the Arctic: A multidimensional approach 印度在北极:一个多维的方法
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/11701/spbu06.2019.107
Sinha Uttam Kumar
The Arctic region has spectacular roots in Indian civilizational thinking and thus represents a familiar region. Shaped by its long association and significant expertise in the Antarctic Treaty System; its first scientific expedition to the Arctic Ocean in 2007 followed by the setting of the Arctic research base in 2008 and subsequently its Permanent Observer status in 2013, India’s dominant narrative remains scientific and polar research. But with summer in the Arctic arriving early and staying longer, accessibility to the vast natural resources and huge investment has significantly altered the geopolitical landscape of the Arctic region. The question of how to develop the resources in a sustainable and peaceful manner competes with the complex science of the Arctic and the unique risks that such commercial ventures pose. India’s reluctance to de-emphasize its scientific interest towards a more calibrated approach that takes into account the politico-strategic-economic dimensions in the Arctic reflects the tension between the exceptionalism and the realism of its polar legacy. The article assesses how the Arctic orientation is changing from a uni-dimensional to a dynamic and multidimensional engagement. The author argues that India’s Arctic approach is essentially binary: while indeed India has a stake in the governance of global commons and to cooperate with the littoral states for effective science policies, it also cares about sustainable resource development without making the Arctic region unstable.
北极地区在印度文明思想中有着惊人的根基,因此代表了一个熟悉的地区。由于其在《南极条约系统》中的长期联系和丰富的专门知识而形成;2007年首次对北冰洋进行科学考察,2008年设立北极研究基地,随后在2013年获得永久观察员地位,印度的主导叙事仍然是科学和极地研究。但随着北极的夏天来得早、持续时间更长,丰富的自然资源和巨额投资的可及性极大地改变了北极地区的地缘政治格局。如何以可持续和和平的方式开发资源的问题与北极的复杂科学以及这种商业冒险所带来的独特风险相竞争。印度不愿弱化其科学兴趣,转而采取一种考虑到北极政治、战略和经济维度的更精确的方法,这反映了其极地遗产的例外主义和现实主义之间的紧张关系。本文评估了北极方向是如何从单一维度转变为动态和多维接触的。作者认为,印度的北极方法本质上是二元的:虽然印度在全球公域的治理和与沿海国家合作制定有效的科学政策方面确实有利害关系,但它也关心在不使北极地区不稳定的情况下可持续的资源开发。
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引用次数: 3
The creation of Russia’s new image in the Western press between 2014 and 2019 2014年至2019年期间,俄罗斯在西方媒体上的新形象
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/11701/SPBU06.2019.406
P. Koshkin
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引用次数: 3
Åland Islands: lessons for the conflict of the Falkland Islands (Malvinas Islands)? Åland岛屿:福克兰群岛(马尔维纳斯群岛)冲突的教训?
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/11701/spbu06.2019.207
Sergio Gabriel Eissa
could be a third way for Argentina’s foreign policy belong to this problem.
可能是阿根廷外交政策属于这个问题的第三条道路。
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引用次数: 0
Modelling negotiations on the Nordic Economic Area: Uncertainty and absolute gains as factors of international solidarity 北欧经济区谈判模拟:作为国际团结因素的不确定性和绝对收益
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.21638/spbu06.2022.302
D. Lanko
The article revisits the negotiations on NORDEK, a Nordic Economic Area, held by Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden in 1968–1970. Finland, which initially took active part in the negotiations, later reversed its position under pressure from the Soviet Union as well as for other reasons. Four remaining Nordic countries refused to pursue a Nordic Economic Area without Finland for multiple reasons, of which one was solidarity with Finland. This article presents multiple game models, of which some reflect the actual outcome of the NORDEK negotiations, i. e., their failure, while others reflect hypothetical outcomes of the negotiations, such as emergence of a NORDEK of four without Finland. Those models allow concluding on the main factors causing Nordic solidarity, for which the NORDEK negotiations were a testing ground, and which had been the defining feature of regional politics in the European North during fifty years following the failure of the negotiations. First, domestic uncertainty about the issue debated by multiple nations contributes to greater solidarity among those nations. Second, majority’s focus on their absolute gains during international negotiations contributes to greater solidarity among negotiating nations. Third, relative equality among negotiating nations does not have any influence on solidarity among them. The latter conclusion supports the theoretical assumption that that organic solidarity (solidarity among different) is as possible as is mechanical solidarity (solidarity of similar).
本文回顾了1968-1970年丹麦、芬兰、冰岛、挪威和瑞典就北欧经济区(NORDEK)举行的谈判。最初积极参加谈判的芬兰后来在苏联的压力和其他原因下改变了立场。其余四个北欧国家拒绝建立一个没有芬兰的北欧经济区,理由多种多样,其中一个是与芬兰团结一致。本文提出了多个博弈模型,其中一些反映了NORDEK谈判的实际结果,即他们的失败,而另一些则反映了谈判的假设结果,例如出现了一个没有芬兰的NORDEK。这些模式可以总结北欧团结的主要因素,NORDEK谈判是一个试验场,在谈判失败后的五十年里,北欧团结一直是欧洲北部区域政治的决定性特征。首先,多个国家辩论的这个问题的国内不确定性有助于加强这些国家之间的团结。其次,多数国家在国际谈判中注重自己的绝对利益,有助于加强谈判国家之间的团结。第三,谈判国之间的相对平等对它们之间的团结没有任何影响。后一个结论支持了一个理论假设,即有机团结(不同之间的团结)和机械团结(相似的团结)一样可能。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Vestnik of Saint Petersburg University. International relations
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