Notwithstanding some progress in market and product diversification - including services - LDCs remain particularly vulnerable to external shocks. With the exception of 2006-2008, the LDCs as a group have systematically recorded a trade deficit. The 2008-2009 global crisis and the bumpy recovery which followed illustrate the volatility of the recent trends. In such a perspective, renewed efforts towards extensive product diversification are called for. Fostering diversification has been supported for many years by preferential market access to developed countries; more recently, emerging countries have also been granting such preferences to LDCs products. Preferential market access remains relevant, but is not sufficient to improve the supply-side capabilities. The new business model related to global value chains (GVC) offers new opportunities to LDCs for export diversification. But GVC participation cannot materialize without a proper trade environment. Some of the main obstacles for joining GVCs are the high transaction costs in importing the necessary inputs and exporting the processed goods. Active trade facilitation programmes, such as those identified during the Fourth Global Review of Aid for Trade in July 2013 offer new options to LDCs for joining GVCs. For those LDCs that have already been able to join these global production network, up-grading towards higher value-added activities requires more encompassing horizontal policies.
{"title":"Least-Developed Countries' Trade During the 'Super-Cycle' and the Great Trade Collapse: Patterns and Stylized Fact","authors":"H. Escaith, Bekele Tamenu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2364273","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2364273","url":null,"abstract":"Notwithstanding some progress in market and product diversification - including services - LDCs remain particularly vulnerable to external shocks. With the exception of 2006-2008, the LDCs as a group have systematically recorded a trade deficit. The 2008-2009 global crisis and the bumpy recovery which followed illustrate the volatility of the recent trends. In such a perspective, renewed efforts towards extensive product diversification are called for. Fostering diversification has been supported for many years by preferential market access to developed countries; more recently, emerging countries have also been granting such preferences to LDCs products. Preferential market access remains relevant, but is not sufficient to improve the supply-side capabilities. The new business model related to global value chains (GVC) offers new opportunities to LDCs for export diversification. But GVC participation cannot materialize without a proper trade environment. Some of the main obstacles for joining GVCs are the high transaction costs in importing the necessary inputs and exporting the processed goods. Active trade facilitation programmes, such as those identified during the Fourth Global Review of Aid for Trade in July 2013 offer new options to LDCs for joining GVCs. For those LDCs that have already been able to join these global production network, up-grading towards higher value-added activities requires more encompassing horizontal policies.","PeriodicalId":341166,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Relationships (Topic)","volume":"56 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132074964","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2013-12-01DOI: 10.4000/CHINAPERSPECTIVES.6321
S. Nagy
This paper will examine the repercussions of the Sino-Japanese territorial dispute for bilateral trade. Using interviews with businesses, scholars, and government officials in Beijing, Hong Kong, and Tokyo, and data gathered from policy papers and businesses, this paper argues that the traditional seikei bunri (separation of politics and economics) relationship that existed between Japan and China in the post-World War II period has given way to a more confrontational relationship in which economic pressure can be and has been applied as a means to press Japan on bilateral issues. It argues that understanding the way in which frictions arising from territorial disputes have affected the Sino-Japanese trading relationship may hold implications for the handling of similar disputes across North- and South-East Asia.
{"title":"Territorial Disputes, Trade and Diplomacy: Examining the Repercussions of the Sino-Japanese Territorial Dispute on Bilateral Trade","authors":"S. Nagy","doi":"10.4000/CHINAPERSPECTIVES.6321","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4000/CHINAPERSPECTIVES.6321","url":null,"abstract":"This paper will examine the repercussions of the Sino-Japanese territorial dispute for bilateral trade. Using interviews with businesses, scholars, and government officials in Beijing, Hong Kong, and Tokyo, and data gathered from policy papers and businesses, this paper argues that the traditional seikei bunri (separation of politics and economics) relationship that existed between Japan and China in the post-World War II period has given way to a more confrontational relationship in which economic pressure can be and has been applied as a means to press Japan on bilateral issues. It argues that understanding the way in which frictions arising from territorial disputes have affected the Sino-Japanese trading relationship may hold implications for the handling of similar disputes across North- and South-East Asia.","PeriodicalId":341166,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Relationships (Topic)","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114779535","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper uses the methodology developed in Kehoe and Ruhl (2013) to measure the change in the extensive, or new goods, margin of trade between Japan and China after China's entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001. The new goods account for 15.9% of Japanese exports to China and 22% of Chinese exports to Japan after trade liberalization. For the case of Chinese exports to Japan, a time series measure shows the growth in new goods coincides with the timing of the trade liberalization.
{"title":"The New Goods Margin in Japanese-Chinese Trade","authors":"John T. Dalton","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2335703","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2335703","url":null,"abstract":"This paper uses the methodology developed in Kehoe and Ruhl (2013) to measure the change in the extensive, or new goods, margin of trade between Japan and China after China's entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001. The new goods account for 15.9% of Japanese exports to China and 22% of Chinese exports to Japan after trade liberalization. For the case of Chinese exports to Japan, a time series measure shows the growth in new goods coincides with the timing of the trade liberalization.","PeriodicalId":341166,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Relationships (Topic)","volume":"59 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114706177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The present paper aims to disseminate the factors that had an impact on international trade during the economic crisis. The analysis focused on four major factors, each of them being briefly treated.
{"title":"Factor Analysis of International Trade Worldwide During the Economic Crisis","authors":"C. Spiridon","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2331332","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2331332","url":null,"abstract":"The present paper aims to disseminate the factors that had an impact on international trade during the economic crisis. The analysis focused on four major factors, each of them being briefly treated.","PeriodicalId":341166,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Relationships (Topic)","volume":"105 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128592994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I present a theory of optimal multilateral trade agreements with public political shocks. I first show that "forbearance"-- where one country withholds retaliation when its trading partner receives a shock-- is a feature of an optimal agreement. This provides a rationale for countries not acting on retaliatory rights granted under GATT. Second I show that there is a limit to forbearance allowable in a self-enforcing agreement. This limit is increasing in the number of countries in the agreement, increasing in the common discount factor, and increasing in the size of the export sector.
{"title":"Forbearance in Optimal Multilateral Trade Agreements","authors":"T. R. Bowen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1958291","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1958291","url":null,"abstract":"I present a theory of optimal multilateral trade agreements with public political shocks. I first show that \"forbearance\"-- where one country withholds retaliation when its trading partner receives a shock-- is a feature of an optimal agreement. This provides a rationale for countries not acting on retaliatory rights granted under GATT. Second I show that there is a limit to forbearance allowable in a self-enforcing agreement. This limit is increasing in the number of countries in the agreement, increasing in the common discount factor, and increasing in the size of the export sector.","PeriodicalId":341166,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Relationships (Topic)","volume":"126 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122338072","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The European Union (EU) trade policy towards South East European Countries (SEE countries - Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Serbia and Montenegro and Republic of Macedonia) is one of the important tools of EU's integration strategy. The exports from SEE countries to the European Union are preferred within special autonomous trade measures for SEE countries which were introduced by the EU in September 2000 (the 2000TM). The 2000TM are a far-ranging set of preferences which provide the SEE countries with unparalleled market access to the EU, and hence with the potential both to develop existing exports and to generate new exports.However, SEE countries’ exports to the EU are far below the level which could reasonably be expected. A number of supply- side and domestic policy reasons are given for this under-performance, which suggests that the 2000TM are likely in part to rectify the situation.The economic regeneration of the SSE countries will depend from the success of internal economic reform and from the adoption of economic and trade policies which specifically identify and address some serious supply-side constraints.
{"title":"Effects of EU Trade Policy on Export Development in South East European Countries: Some Important Lessons","authors":"B. Ćulahović","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2240181","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2240181","url":null,"abstract":"The European Union (EU) trade policy towards South East European Countries (SEE countries - Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Serbia and Montenegro and Republic of Macedonia) is one of the important tools of EU's integration strategy. The exports from SEE countries to the European Union are preferred within special autonomous trade measures for SEE countries which were introduced by the EU in September 2000 (the 2000TM). The 2000TM are a far-ranging set of preferences which provide the SEE countries with unparalleled market access to the EU, and hence with the potential both to develop existing exports and to generate new exports.However, SEE countries’ exports to the EU are far below the level which could reasonably be expected. A number of supply- side and domestic policy reasons are given for this under-performance, which suggests that the 2000TM are likely in part to rectify the situation.The economic regeneration of the SSE countries will depend from the success of internal economic reform and from the adoption of economic and trade policies which specifically identify and address some serious supply-side constraints.","PeriodicalId":341166,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Relationships (Topic)","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129474328","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Over the past ten years, the Central and Eastern European Countries have considerably increased their share in world trade as well as in the imports of the 15 "old" EU member states. The accession to the EU brings about trade creation and trade diversion effects. In the case of Austria, after EU accession trade with the other EU member states has grown, while Switzerland has become less important. Also for Slovenia, trade with the EU countries has become increasingly important. This can also be expected for Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is striving for EU membership. In addition to the regional dimension, the sectoral pattern of exports and imports is also affected by EU membership. This paper presents theoretical consideration about the effects of EU accession on international trade. In addition, some stylised facts on the regional and sectoral structure of exports and imports of Austria, Slovenia and Bosnia and Herzegovina are presented. Austria and especially Slovenia can be regarded as benchmark countries for the future development of international trade of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
{"title":"Trade Effects of European Economic Integration - A Comparison between Austria, Slovenia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina","authors":"K. Weyerstrass, Kenan Spaho","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2237894","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2237894","url":null,"abstract":"Over the past ten years, the Central and Eastern European Countries have considerably increased their share in world trade as well as in the imports of the 15 \"old\" EU member states. The accession to the EU brings about trade creation and trade diversion effects. In the case of Austria, after EU accession trade with the other EU member states has grown, while Switzerland has become less important. Also for Slovenia, trade with the EU countries has become increasingly important. This can also be expected for Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is striving for EU membership. In addition to the regional dimension, the sectoral pattern of exports and imports is also affected by EU membership. This paper presents theoretical consideration about the effects of EU accession on international trade. In addition, some stylised facts on the regional and sectoral structure of exports and imports of Austria, Slovenia and Bosnia and Herzegovina are presented. Austria and especially Slovenia can be regarded as benchmark countries for the future development of international trade of Bosnia and Herzegovina.","PeriodicalId":341166,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Relationships (Topic)","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121458368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The wave of globalization had started winding since the late 1980’s in many countries of the world. This led to a structural change in different sectors of economy in different parts of the world. One of such sectors is external sector which remained closed in many countries specially socialist countries for many decades. Many countries have started adopting export as engine of economic growth, and, import as means to acquire technological know-how and capital goods for promoting export sector. India’s economy which had been under the License Raj for almost four decades, however, by the turn of 1990s, India had been in the new wave of globalization. As a part of project globalization, India adopted “Look East Policy” for opening up its economy to those neighbouring South East Asian countries. Under this policy, India signed the Indo-Myanmar Border Trade agreement on 21st January, 1994 with Myanmar in view of the needs and demand of the people of the North East India. However, border trade along the Indo-Myanmar border has been being witnessed trading of both formal and informal goods simultaneously. Therefore, this paper examines exclusively the items under informal trade; the institutional factors behind this informal trade; methodologies; employment function and employment multiplier.
{"title":"Trade Induced Employment Function and Employment Multiplier: A Case Study in Indo-Myanmar Border Trade","authors":"Mayengbam Lalit Singh","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2173718","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2173718","url":null,"abstract":"The wave of globalization had started winding since the late 1980’s in many countries of the world. This led to a structural change in different sectors of economy in different parts of the world. One of such sectors is external sector which remained closed in many countries specially socialist countries for many decades. Many countries have started adopting export as engine of economic growth, and, import as means to acquire technological know-how and capital goods for promoting export sector. India’s economy which had been under the License Raj for almost four decades, however, by the turn of 1990s, India had been in the new wave of globalization. As a part of project globalization, India adopted “Look East Policy” for opening up its economy to those neighbouring South East Asian countries. Under this policy, India signed the Indo-Myanmar Border Trade agreement on 21st January, 1994 with Myanmar in view of the needs and demand of the people of the North East India. However, border trade along the Indo-Myanmar border has been being witnessed trading of both formal and informal goods simultaneously. Therefore, this paper examines exclusively the items under informal trade; the institutional factors behind this informal trade; methodologies; employment function and employment multiplier.","PeriodicalId":341166,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Relationships (Topic)","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117253832","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The rise of the BRICS is evident to the general public yet little academic literature has been written regarding its collective role in the international scenario Rather, this coalition is widely considered to be solely a descriptive acronym of the emerging powers. This dissertation studies the definition and role of the BRICS as a coalition that cooperates on the international stage. In order to do that it uses a diverse set of analysis. These tools of analysis conclude, both independently and collectively, that the BRICS act as a de facto coalition in two different international settings, in the G-20 and in the reforms of the International Monetary Fund.This paper defines the BRICS and their place in the current academic discussion of global politics. It uses three different types of analysis to assess whether the BRICS are in fact a coalition. The first approach is theoretical that utilises a framework often applied to analyse the blocs within the World Trade Organisation. The second approach is a qualitative analysis regarding how the creation of the G-20 and how its decisions were affected by the BRICS coordination. The final approach is a case study that examines the gains achieved by the BRICS during the reform of the IMF.
{"title":"The Brics as a Coalition: Analysing the Cooperation of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa in the International Monetary Fund and the G-20","authors":"A. Castro","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2304399","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2304399","url":null,"abstract":"The rise of the BRICS is evident to the general public yet little academic literature has been written regarding its collective role in the international scenario Rather, this coalition is widely considered to be solely a descriptive acronym of the emerging powers. This dissertation studies the definition and role of the BRICS as a coalition that cooperates on the international stage. In order to do that it uses a diverse set of analysis. These tools of analysis conclude, both independently and collectively, that the BRICS act as a de facto coalition in two different international settings, in the G-20 and in the reforms of the International Monetary Fund.This paper defines the BRICS and their place in the current academic discussion of global politics. It uses three different types of analysis to assess whether the BRICS are in fact a coalition. The first approach is theoretical that utilises a framework often applied to analyse the blocs within the World Trade Organisation. The second approach is a qualitative analysis regarding how the creation of the G-20 and how its decisions were affected by the BRICS coordination. The final approach is a case study that examines the gains achieved by the BRICS during the reform of the IMF.","PeriodicalId":341166,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Relationships (Topic)","volume":"46 41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129746369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The typical narrative regarding the evolution of world trade prior to World War II refers to a secular rise that started around 1870 and a subsequent collapse that began in 1914. This narrative, though, is based on measures of trade openness that do not fully take into account purchasing power differences across countries, as in the literature non-PPP-adjusted trade data are typically denominated by PPP-adjusted GDP data. The present paper seeks to resolve this inconsistency by constructing new trade share estimates for 51 countries spanning the period from 1870 to 1949 by combining historical import and export data with non-PPP-adjusted GDP values that we estimate via the "short-cut" method. Our estimates indicate a much more pronounced rise and fall of world trade over this period with trade shares being on average 32% higher than previously documented and the world's level of openness to trade in 1913 being comparable to that in 1974. In addition, performing a similar correction for purchasing power differences in the context of standard gravity regressions for the 1870-1939 period we find that the existing literature has overestimated the importance of income movements during this period relative to tariffs changes and the evolution of the gold standard.
{"title":"Quantifying the Evolution of World Trade, 1870-1949","authors":"Mariko J. Klasing, Petros Milionis","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2087678","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2087678","url":null,"abstract":"The typical narrative regarding the evolution of world trade prior to World War II refers to a secular rise that started around 1870 and a subsequent collapse that began in 1914. This narrative, though, is based on measures of trade openness that do not fully take into account purchasing power differences across countries, as in the literature non-PPP-adjusted trade data are typically denominated by PPP-adjusted GDP data. The present paper seeks to resolve this inconsistency by constructing new trade share estimates for 51 countries spanning the period from 1870 to 1949 by combining historical import and export data with non-PPP-adjusted GDP values that we estimate via the \"short-cut\" method. Our estimates indicate a much more pronounced rise and fall of world trade over this period with trade shares being on average 32% higher than previously documented and the world's level of openness to trade in 1913 being comparable to that in 1974. In addition, performing a similar correction for purchasing power differences in the context of standard gravity regressions for the 1870-1939 period we find that the existing literature has overestimated the importance of income movements during this period relative to tariffs changes and the evolution of the gold standard.","PeriodicalId":341166,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Relationships (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128637218","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：