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Optimal decision-making considering inter-supply-chain competition and negative-spillover from environmental effort 考虑供应链间竞争和环境努力负溢出的最优决策
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.regsus.2022.11.003
Jiguang Wang , Yushang Hu , Yucai Wu

Focusing on negative-spillover from environmental effort, this paper explores the issues of competition and optimal decision-making based on two competing two-stage manufacturer-dominated supply chains: centralized and decentralized. We developed the Stackelberg competition models according to four identified competition scenarios (pure centralized structure-CC, mixed structure-DC, mixed structure-CD, and pure decentralized structure-DD). By comparing the results of the four scenarios, we find that negative-spillover from environmental effort negatively impacts environmental-effort providers and reduces the optimal profit of the manufacturer providing the environmental effort, which in turn reduces the profit of the entire supply chain. The inter-supply-chain competition also produces a negative incentive for environmental-effort providers but provides a free riding effect on the non-provider, and this effect increases as competition increases. In terms of network externality, the structural change of a supply chain from centralized to decentralized is altruistic, which generates a double-marginalization (i.e., the network externality enhances competitor performance). Furthermore, the leader supply chain with a centralized structure is more willing to provide greater environmental effort, whereas when the leader supply chain structure remains unchanged, its environmental effort depends on the negative-spillover effect and the follower supply chain structure. Therefore, excessive supply chain competition should be avoided, and the negative-spillover effect of environmental effort should be reduced to motivate environmental-effort providers to increase their environmental efforts and promote the development of sustainable green supply chains. Future research should examine retailer-dominated supply chain competition and compare the results with the conclusions of this study.

本文着眼于环境努力的负溢出效应,探讨了基于集中式和分散式两阶段制造商主导的竞争供应链的竞争和最优决策问题。我们根据四种确定的竞争场景(纯集中式结构- cc、混合结构- dc、混合结构- cd和纯分散式结构- dd)建立了Stackelberg竞争模型。通过比较四种情景的结果,我们发现环境努力的负外溢对环境努力提供者产生了负面影响,并降低了提供环境努力的制造商的最优利润,从而降低了整个供应链的利润。供应链间的竞争也对环境努力的提供者产生负激励,但对非提供者提供搭便车效应,这种效应随着竞争的增加而增加。在网络外部性方面,供应链从集中到分散的结构变化是利他的,它产生了双重边缘化(即网络外部性提高了竞争对手的绩效)。此外,集中式结构的领导者供应链更愿意提供更大的环境努力,而当领导者供应链结构保持不变时,其环境努力取决于负溢出效应和追随者供应链结构。因此,应避免供应链过度竞争,减少环境努力的负外溢效应,以激励环境努力提供者加大环境努力,促进可持续绿色供应链的发展。未来的研究应该考察零售商主导的供应链竞争,并将结果与本研究的结论进行比较。
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引用次数: 1
Traditional agroecological knowledge and practices: The drivers and opportunities for adaptation actions in the northern region of Ghana 传统农业生态知识和实践:加纳北部地区适应行动的动力和机遇
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.regsus.2022.11.002
Enoch Yeleliere , Thomas Yeboah , Philip Antwi-Agyei , Prince Peprah

Agroecological practices are promoted as a more proactive approach than conventional agriculture to achieving a collective global response to climate change and variability while building robust and resilient agricultural systems to meet food needs and protect the integrity of ecosystems. There is relatively limited evidence on the key traditional agroecological knowledge and practices adopted by smallholder farmers, the factors that influence smallholder farmers’ decision to adopt these practices, and the opportunities it presents for building resilient agricultural systems. Using a multi-scale mixed method approach, we conducted key informant interviews (n ​= ​12), focus group discussions (n ​= ​5), and questionnaire surveys (N ​= ​220) to explore the traditional agroecological knowledge and practices, the influencing factors, and the opportunities smallholder farmers presented for achieving resilient agricultural systems. Our findings suggest that smallholder farmers employ a suite of traditional agroecological knowledge and practices to enhance food security, combat climate change, and build resilient agricultural systems. The most important traditional agroecological knowledge and practices in the study area comprise cultivating leguminous crops, mixed crop-livestock systems, and crop rotation, with Relative Importance Index (RII) values of 0.710, 0.708, and 0.695, respectively. It is reported that the choice of these practices by smallholder farmers is influenced by their own farming experience, access to market, access to local resources, information, and expertise, and the perceived risk of climate change. Moreover, the results further show that improving household food security and nutrition, improving soil quality, control of pest and disease infestation, and support from Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) and local authorities are opportunities for smallholder farmers in adopting traditional agroecological knowledge and practices for achieving resilient agricultural systems. The findings call into question the need for stakeholders and policy-makers at all levels to develop capacity and increase the awareness of traditional agroecological knowledge and practices as mechanisms to ensure resilient agricultural systems for sustainable food security.

生态农业实践作为一种比传统农业更积极主动的方法得到推广,以实现对气候变化和变异的全球集体应对,同时建立强大和有弹性的农业系统,以满足粮食需求并保护生态系统的完整性。关于小农采用的关键传统农业生态知识和做法、影响小农决定采用这些做法的因素,以及它为建设有复原力的农业系统提供的机会,证据相对有限。采用多尺度混合方法,我们进行了关键信息者访谈(n = 12)、焦点小组讨论(n = 5)和问卷调查(n = 220),以探讨传统农业生态知识和实践、影响因素以及小农为实现弹性农业系统所提供的机会。我们的研究结果表明,小农采用了一套传统的农业生态知识和实践来加强粮食安全、应对气候变化和建立有弹性的农业系统。研究区最重要的传统农业生态知识和实践为豆科作物种植、农牧混作和轮作,其相对重要指数(RII)分别为0.710、0.708和0.695。据报告,小农对这些做法的选择受到他们自己的耕作经验、进入市场的机会、获得当地资源、信息和专门知识的机会以及感知到的气候变化风险的影响。此外,研究结果进一步表明,改善家庭粮食安全和营养、改善土壤质量、控制病虫害以及获得非政府组织和地方当局的支持是小农采用传统农业生态知识和实践以实现抗灾农业系统的机会。调查结果提出了一个问题,即各级利益相关者和决策者需要发展能力,并提高对传统农业生态知识和实践的认识,以确保农业系统具有复原力,实现可持续粮食安全。
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引用次数: 3
Assessing and mapping soil erosion risk zone in Ratlam District, central India 评估和绘制印度中部Ratlam地区土壤侵蚀危险区
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.regsus.2022.11.005
Sunil Saha, Debabrata Sarkar, Prolay Mondal

Evaluation of physical and quantitative data of soil erosion is crucial to the sustainable development of the environment. The extreme form of land degradation through different forms of erosion is one of the major problems in the sub-tropical monsoon-dominated region. In India, tackling soil erosion is one of the major geo-environmental issues for its environment. Thus, identifying soil erosion risk zones and taking preventative actions are vital for crop production management. Soil erosion is induced by climate change, topographic conditions, soil texture, agricultural systems, and land management. In this research, the soil erosion risk zones of Ratlam District was determined by employing the Geographic Information System (GIS), Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and machine learning algorithms (Random Forest and Reduced Error Pruning (REP) tree). RUSLE measured the rainfall eosivity (R), soil erodibility (K), length of slope and steepness (LS), Land cover and management (C), and support practices (P) factors. Kappa statistic was used to configure model reliability and it was found that Random Forest and AHP have higher reliability than other models. About 14.73% (715.94 km2) of the study area has very low risk to soil erosion, with an average soil erosion rate of 0.00–7.00 × 103 kg/(hm2·a), while about 7.46% (362.52 km2) of the study area has very high risk to soil erosion, with an average soil erosion rate of 30.00 × 103–48.00 × 103 kg/(hm2·a). Slope, elevation, stream density, Stream Power Index (SPI), rainfall, and land use and land cover (LULC) all affect soil erosion. The current study could help the government and non-government agencies to employ developmental projects and policies accordingly. However, the outcomes of the present research also could be used to prevent, monitor, and control soil erosion in the study area by employing restoration measures.

评价土壤侵蚀的物理和定量数据对环境的可持续发展至关重要。不同形式的侵蚀导致的极端形式的土地退化是亚热带季风主导地区的主要问题之一。在印度,解决土壤侵蚀是其环境的主要地质环境问题之一。因此,确定土壤侵蚀危险区并采取预防措施对作物生产管理至关重要。土壤侵蚀是由气候变化、地形条件、土壤质地、农业系统和土地管理引起的。本研究采用地理信息系统(GIS)、修正通用水土流失方程(RUSLE)、层次分析法(AHP)和机器学习算法(随机森林和减少误差修剪(REP)树)确定了Ratlam地区的土壤侵蚀危险区。RUSLE测量了降雨正性(R)、土壤可蚀性(K)、坡度和坡度长度(LS)、土地覆盖和管理(C)以及支持措施(P)等因素。采用Kappa统计量配置模型信度,发现Random Forest和AHP的信度高于其他模型。约14.73%(715.94 平方公里)的研究区土壤侵蚀风险很低,平均土壤侵蚀率0.00 - -7.00 ×  公斤/ 103(款hm2·),而约7.46%(362.52 平方公里)研究区域的土壤侵蚀风险很高,平均土壤侵蚀率30.00 ×103 - 48.00  ×  公斤/ 103(款hm2·)。坡度、高程、河流密度、河流功率指数(SPI)、降雨量、土地利用和土地覆盖(LULC)都会影响土壤侵蚀。目前的研究可以帮助政府和非政府机构采用相应的发展项目和政策。然而,本研究结果也可用于研究区土壤侵蚀的预防、监测和控制。
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引用次数: 2
Assessment of the impact of climate change on the occurrences of malaria, pneumonia, meningitis, and cholera in Lokoja City, Nigeria 评估气候变化对尼日利亚洛科贾市疟疾、肺炎、脑膜炎和霍乱发病率的影响
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.regsus.2022.11.007
Isaac Ayo Oluwatimilehin , Joseph Omojesu Akerele , Tolulope Adedoyin Oladeji , Mojisola Hannah Omogbehin , Godwin Atai

This study examined the impact of climate change on the occurrence of malaria, pneumonia, meningitis, and cholera in Lokoja City, Nigeria with the aim of investigating the spatial distribution and prevalence of the four kinds of diseases as well as the coping strategies of people in the area. We collected the rainfall and temperature data of Lokoja City during 2000–2020 from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and the medical records data of the four kinds of diseases from the Kogi State Ministry of Health. We also conducted a semi-structured questionnaire of 250 residents, who have experienced one of these diseases, to investigate their coping strategies with these diseases. The Pearson correlation and multiple regression analysis were used to research the relationship between the climate parameters and cases of diseases. The result showed annual variations in climatic parameters with R2 ​= ​0.0557, 0.0009, and 0.4915 for rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures respectively. A positive and significant relationship were observed between maximum temperature and malaria (r ​= ​0.80), rainfall and malaria (r ​= ​0.54), minimum temperature and meningitis (r ​= ​0.64), as well as rainfall and cholera (r ​= ​0.66) at P ​< ​0.05. For the regression analysis R2 ​= ​0.71, 0.50, and 0.52 for malaria, cholera, and meningitis, respectively at P ​< ​0.05. During 2000–2020, cases of malaria were highest in Ward A with 15,422, while 715 cases of pneumonia were highest in Kupa North. In Ward A 3787 cases of cholera were recorded to be the highest, while cases of meningitis were highest in Kupa North with 2383 cases. Investigation revealed that malaria is more common in the wet season while cholera and meningitis cases were highest in the dry season. The study revealed that the most practiced coping strategy is the use of medications by about 90% of the respondents. More studies are recommended in the study area to establish a causal link between climate change and disease occurrences, and intervention from government in form of prevention and control programmes should be vigorously implemented.

本研究考察了气候变化对尼日利亚Lokoja市疟疾、肺炎、脑膜炎和霍乱发生的影响,目的是调查这四种疾病的空间分布和流行情况,以及该地区人民的应对策略。我们收集了美国国家航空航天局(NASA) 2000-2020年洛科贾市的降雨量和温度数据,以及科吉州卫生部提供的四种疾病的病历数据。我们还对250名经历过这些疾病之一的居民进行了半结构化问卷调查,以调查他们对这些疾病的应对策略。采用Pearson相关分析和多元回归分析研究了气候参数与病例的关系。结果表明,降水量、最高气温和最低气温的年际变化R2分别为0.0557、0.0009和0.4915。最高气温与疟疾(r = 0.80)、降雨量与疟疾(r = 0.54)、最低气温与脑膜炎(r = 0.64)、降雨量与霍乱(r = 0.66)呈显著正相关;0.05。在回归分析中,疟疾、霍乱和脑膜炎的P <值分别为R2 = 0.71、0.50和0.52;0.05。2000-2020年期间,A区的疟疾病例最多,有15 422例,而库帕北部的肺炎病例最多,为715例。A区霍乱病例最多,为3787例,而脑膜炎病例最多的是北库帕,有2383例。调查显示,疟疾在雨季更为常见,而霍乱和脑膜炎病例在旱季最高。研究显示,约90%的受访者最常用的应对策略是使用药物。建议在研究领域进行更多的研究,以确定气候变化与疾病发生之间的因果关系,并应大力实施政府以预防和控制方案的形式进行干预。
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引用次数: 1
Right-wing and populist support for climate mitigation policies: Evidence from Poland and its carbon-intensive Silesia region 右翼和民粹主义者对气候缓解政策的支持:来自波兰及其碳密集型西里西亚地区的证据
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.regsus.2022.11.001
Mahir Yazar , Lukas Hermwille , Håvard Haarstad

Research on environmental behaviour is often overlooked in literature on regime destabilization in energy transitions. This study addresses that gap by focusing on socio-political and demographic factors shaping support for carbon regime destabilization policies in one of the most carbon-intensive regions of Europe. Carbon-intensive industries, especially coal mining and coal-based power generation, are often concentrated in a few carbon-intensive regions. Therefore, decarbonization actions will affect those regions particularly strongly. Correspondingly, carbon-intensive regions often exert significant political influence on the two climate mitigation policies at the national level. Focusing on Poland, we investigate socio-political and demographic factors that correlate with the approval or rejection of the two climate mitigation policies: increasing taxes on fossil fuels such as oil, gas, and coal and using public money to subsidize renewable energy such as wind and solar power in Poland and its carbon-intensive Silesia region. Using logistic regression with individual-level data derived from the 2016 European Social Survey (ESS) and the 2014 Chapel Hill Expert Survey (CHES), we find party-political ideology to be an important predictor at the national level but much less so at the regional level. Specifically, voting for right-wing party is not a divisive factor for individual support of the two climate mitigation policies either nationally or regionally. More interestingly, populism is a strong factor in support of increasing taxes on fossil fuel in the carbon-intensive Silesia region but is less important concerning in support of using public money to subsidize renewable energy in Poland overall. These results show the heterogeneity of right-wing party and populism within the support for the two climate mitigation policies. Socio-demographic factors, especially age, gender, education level, employment status, and employment sector, have even more complex and heterogeneous components in support of the two climate mitigation policies at the national and regional levels. Identifying the complex socio-political and demographic factors of climate mitigation policies across different national versus carbon-intensive regional contexts is an essential step for generating in situ decarbonization strategies.

环境行为的研究往往被忽视的文献中政权不稳定的能量转换。本研究通过关注社会政治和人口因素来解决这一差距,这些因素影响了欧洲碳密度最高的地区之一对碳制度不稳定政策的支持。碳密集型工业,特别是煤炭开采和以煤为基础的发电,往往集中在少数碳密集型地区。因此,脱碳行动将特别强烈地影响这些地区。相应的,碳密集地区往往在国家层面上对两项气候减缓政策施加重大的政治影响。以波兰为重点,我们调查了与批准或拒绝两项气候减缓政策相关的社会政治和人口因素:增加对石油、天然气和煤炭等化石燃料的税收,并利用公共资金补贴波兰及其碳密集型西里西亚地区的风能和太阳能等可再生能源。利用2016年欧洲社会调查(ESS)和2014年教堂山专家调查(CHES)得出的个人层面数据的逻辑回归,我们发现政党政治意识形态在国家层面上是一个重要的预测因素,但在地区层面上的作用要小得多。具体来说,投票给右翼政党并不是个人支持两项国家或地区气候减缓政策的分裂因素。更有趣的是,在碳密集的西里西亚地区,民粹主义是支持增加化石燃料税的重要因素,但在支持使用公共资金补贴波兰整体可再生能源方面,民粹主义则不那么重要。这些结果表明,右翼政党和民粹主义对两种气候减缓政策的支持存在异质性。社会人口因素,特别是年龄、性别、教育水平、就业状况和就业部门,在支持国家和区域两级减缓气候变化政策方面具有更加复杂和异质的组成部分。确定不同国家与碳密集区域背景下气候缓解政策的复杂社会政治和人口因素,是制定就地脱碳战略的重要步骤。
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引用次数: 1
Influencing factors and contribution analysis of CO2 emissions originating from final energy consumption in Sichuan Province, China 四川省最终能源消费产生的CO2排放影响因素及贡献分析
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.regsus.2022.11.006
Wei Liu , Zhijie Jia , Meng Du , Zhanfeng Dong , Jieyu Pan , Qinrui Li , Linyan Pan , Chris Umole

Within the context of CO2 emission peaking and carbon neutrality, the study of CO2 emissions at the provincial level is few. Sichuan Province in China has not only superior clean energy resources endowment but also great potential for the reduction of CO2 emissions. Therefore, using logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) model to analysis the influence degree of different influencing factors on CO2 emissions from final energy consumption in Sichuan Province, so as to formulate corresponding emission reduction countermeasures from different paths according to the influencing factors. Based on the data of final energy consumption in Sichuan Province from 2010 to 2019, we calculated CO2 emission by the indirect emission calculation method. The influencing factors of CO2 emissions originating from final energy consumption in Sichuan Province were decomposed into population size, economic development, industrial structure, energy consumption intensity, and energy consumption structure by the Kaya–logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition model. At the same time, grey correlation analysis was used to identify the correlation between CO2 emissions originating from final energy consumption and the influencing factors in Sichuan Province. The results showed that population size, economic development and energy consumption structure have positive contributions to CO2 emissions from final energy consumption in Sichuan Province, and economic development has a significant contribution to CO2 emissions from final energy consumption, with a contribution rate of 519.11%. The industrial structure and energy consumption intensity have negative contributions to CO2 emissions in Sichuan Province, and both of them have significant contributions, among which the contribution rate of energy consumption structure was 325.96%. From the perspective of industrial structure, secondary industry makes significant contributions and will maintain a restraining effect; from the perspective of energy consumption structure, industry sector has a significant contribution. The results of this paper are conducive to the implementation of carbon emission reduction policies in Sichuan Province.

在二氧化碳排放调峰和碳中和的背景下,对省级二氧化碳排放的研究较少。中国四川省不仅拥有优越的清洁能源资源禀赋,而且具有巨大的二氧化碳减排潜力。因此,采用对数平均分度指数(LMDI)模型分析不同影响因素对四川省最终能源消费CO2排放的影响程度,从而根据影响因素从不同路径制定相应的减排对策。以2010 - 2019年四川省最终能源消费数据为基础,采用间接排放计算方法计算CO2排放量。采用kaya -对数平均分裂指数(LMDI)分解模型,将四川省最终能源消费CO2排放的影响因素分解为人口规模、经济发展程度、产业结构、能源消费强度和能源消费结构。同时,采用灰色关联分析方法,确定了四川省最终能源消费产生的CO2排放量与影响因素之间的相关性。结果表明:人口规模、经济发展和能源消费结构对四川省最终能源消费CO2排放有正贡献,其中经济发展对最终能源消费CO2排放贡献显著,贡献率为519.11%;四川省产业结构和能源消费强度对CO2排放的贡献均为负,且贡献均显著,其中能源消费结构的贡献率为325.96%。从产业结构看,第二产业贡献显著,并将保持抑制作用;从能源消费结构的角度看,工业部门的贡献显著。本文的研究结果有利于四川省碳减排政策的实施。
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引用次数: 3
Latent dimensions between water use and socio-economic development: A global exploratory statistical analysis 水资源利用与社会经济发展之间的潜在维度:一项全球探索性统计分析
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.regsus.2022.09.004
Edson Elídio Balata , Hugo Pinto , Manuela Moreira da Silva

Water use and socio-economic development are interconnected in complex ways. Causalities are not easy to identify but it is evident that a nexus between water use and socio-economic development does exist. Considering the diversity of national situations relating to these interrelated phenomena, its study should be considered from a global perspective. This article critically reviews the literature and information from official sources on the relevance of water use and circular economy in order to create a global picture, linking water with socio-economic development. Data from 195 countries was analyzed statistically. A factor analysis defined five essential latent dimensions on the nexus between water use and socio-economic development: development and basic services, population and resource, economic volume, health and well-being, and population density. Based on the identified factors, countries were classified into six groups: Global South in difficulty, global semi-periphery, advanced economy, Middle East and other Global South developing economy, global weight, and small highly developed economy. The clustering results clarify connections between water use conditions and socio-economic development. Understanding the variety of national profiles is helpful to reveal the magnitude and urgency of dealing with the nexus between water use and socio-economic development for many countries.

用水和社会经济发展以复杂的方式相互关联。因果关系不容易确定,但显然用水和社会经济发展之间确实存在联系。考虑到与这些相互关联的现象有关的各国情况的多样性,应该从全球的角度来考虑其研究。本文批判性地回顾了来自官方来源的关于用水和循环经济相关性的文献和信息,以便创建一个全球图景,将水与社会经济发展联系起来。来自195个国家的数据进行了统计分析。一项因素分析确定了用水与社会经济发展之间关系的五个基本潜在层面:发展与基本服务、人口与资源、经济体量、健康和福祉以及人口密度。根据确定的因素,将国家分为六组:困难的全球南方、全球半边缘、发达经济体、中东和其他全球南方发展中经济体、全球权重和小型高度发达经济体。聚类结果阐明了用水条件与社会经济发展之间的联系。了解不同的国家概况有助于揭示许多国家处理用水与社会经济发展之间关系的重要性和紧迫性。
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引用次数: 0
Regional characteristics and spatiotemporal differentiation of the prevalence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Xinjiang, China 新疆手足口病流行的区域特征及时空分异
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.regsus.2022.09.001
Ma Chen , Wang Hongwei , Xie Ling , Yi Suyan , Tan Bo

In recent years, the number of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) cases in China has continued to grow, and the disease has become a serious public health issue. Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is located in the arid areas of Northwest China, where the epidemiological trend of HFMD is gradually increasing and characterized by geographical heterogeneity. In this study, based on the HFMD case data in all counties and cities in Xinjiang, we employed statistical and GIS spatial analyses, and geographic probe models to characterize the spatiotemporal differentiation of HFMD epidemics in Xinjiang during the period of 2009–2018, and quantitatively analyzed the factors influencing the spatial differentiation of HFMD epidemics. The results showed that HFMD incidence rate in Xinjiang had non-stationary temporal characteristics on the interannual and monthly scales, and the monthly variation characteristics of HFMD epidemic were quite different in southern and northern Xinjiang. The spatial distribution characteristics of HFMD epidemics showed a north–south spatial differentiation pattern with the Tianshan Mountains as the boundary; cold spot and hot spot of HFMD epidemics in Xinjiang have shifted from scattered to concentrated, and the spatial differentiation pattern had gradually stabilized. Moreover, the dominant factors influencing the spatial differentiation of HFMD epidemics in Xinjiang were socioeconomic factors, such as per capita GDP and urbanization rate, while the basic factors affecting its spatial differentiation were natural environmental factors. The spatial differentiation and evolution patterns of HFMD epidemics differed between northern and southern Xinjiang. Specifically, the leading role of socioeconomic factors is more obvious in southern Xinjiang than in northern Xinjiang, while natural environmental factors (e.g., dryness and relative humidity) contribute to the prevalence of HFMD epidemics in northern Xinjiang, and the perturbing effect of these factors was more prominent than other factors. The results of this study can provide a scientific basis for the prevention of HFMD epidemics and early warning of HFMD epidemics in Xinjiang.

近年来,中国手足口病(HFMD)病例数持续增长,已成为严重的公共卫生问题。新疆维吾尔自治区地处西北干旱区,手足口病流行趋势逐渐增加,且具有地域异质性。本研究基于新疆各县(市)手足口病病例数据,采用统计分析、GIS空间分析和地理探针模型对2009-2018年新疆手足口病流行时空分异特征进行表征,并定量分析影响手足口病流行空间分异的因素。结果表明:新疆手足口病发病率在年际和月尺度上具有非平稳的时间特征,南疆和北疆手足口病流行的月变化特征差异较大;手足口病流行的空间分布特征呈现以天山为界的南北空间分异格局;新疆手足口病流行冷热区由分散向集中转变,空间分异格局逐渐稳定。影响新疆手足口病流行空间分异的主导因素是人均GDP、城镇化率等社会经济因素,影响手足口病流行空间分异的基础因素是自然环境因素。南北疆手足口病流行的空间分异与演变格局存在差异。其中,南疆地区社会经济因素的主导作用比北疆地区更明显,而自然环境因素(如干燥和相对湿度)对北疆手足口病流行的影响更明显,且这些因素的扰动作用比其他因素更突出。本研究结果可为新疆手足口病的流行预防和流行预警提供科学依据。
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引用次数: 0
Post-displacement status of climate migrants in Rajshahi City, Bangladesh 孟加拉国拉杰沙希市气候移民的流离失所后状况
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.regsus.2022.09.002
Syed Mahbubur Rahman , Mahreen Mamoon , Md Shamimul Islam , Saif Hossain , Rezwanul Haque , Abul Bashar Md Zubair

Some big cities in Bangladesh have been experiencing a massive and rapid influx of rural people due to the impacts of climate change, and therefore the urban administration encounters enormous challenges. This study aims to investigate the drivers of climate-induced migration and the post-displacement status of the migrants living in the urban slum of Rajshahi City. Using a semi-structured questionnaire survey, this study conducted interviews with 50 migrants residing in two slums in Rajshahi City. An interpretive phenomenological analysis (IPA) approach was implemented to evaluate the survey data. This study finds that food insecurity and flood are the two significant climate drivers of migration. Among the non-climate drivers, lack of alternative livelihood is the major reason. It should be noticed that the climate migrants in many cases do not get the opportunity to improve their living standards; they are usually occupied with low-pay professions like maid, van and rickshaw puller, and scrap collector. The study also reveals that migrants, especially females and children, need several basic physiological, economic, social, and health services. Most children have no chance to attend school. Compared to males, females have more opportunities for some support and allowances. Overall, an inadequate level of change has taken place in the lives of migrants, which raises the concern if migration is ever a way to resolve a problem or the beginning of many other problems. Further researches may concentrate on the impact of migration on the dynamics of social capital among slum dwellers.

由于气候变化的影响,孟加拉国的一些大城市正在经历大量农村人口的迅速涌入,因此城市管理面临巨大挑战。本研究旨在探讨气候迁移的驱动因素以及居住在拉杰沙希市城市贫民窟的移民的流离失所后状况。本研究采用半结构化问卷调查,对居住在拉杰沙希市两个贫民窟的50名移民进行了访谈。采用解释现象学分析(IPA)方法对调查数据进行评价。本研究发现,粮食不安全和洪水是移民的两个重要气候驱动因素。在非气候驱动因素中,缺乏替代生计是主要原因。应该注意到,气候移民在许多情况下没有机会提高他们的生活水平;他们通常从事低薪职业,如女佣,货车和人力车夫,以及废品收集者。该研究还表明,移徙者,特别是妇女和儿童,需要几种基本的生理、经济、社会和保健服务。大多数孩子没有机会上学。与男性相比,女性有更多的机会获得一些支持和津贴。总的来说,移徙者的生活发生的变化程度不够,这引起了人们的关注,即移徙是解决一个问题的一种方式还是许多其他问题的开始。进一步的研究可以集中在移民对贫民窟居民社会资本动态的影响上。
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引用次数: 0
Nexus between selected macroeconomic variables and carbon emission in Kenya 选定宏观经济变量与肯尼亚碳排放之间的关系
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.regsus.2022.10.003
James Njumwa, Ernest Saina, Alfred Serem

Agriculture is not only influenced by climate change, but it is also one of the significant contributors of CO2 emission. Understanding CO2 emission and macroeconomic variables is critical to solving the challenges and threats faced by Kenya's agriculture and environment. This study used the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis and the autoregressive distribution lag model (ADLM) to analyze the relationships of CO2 emission with agricultural output, government direct investment, trade openness, and inflation rate in Kenya from 1983 to 2019. The study found that there exists a positive (direct) relationship between CO2 emission and foreign direct investment in the long run in Kenya. Additionally, CO2 emission and trade openness have a negative (indirect) and statistically significant relationship after the error correction term adjustment in the long run. Moreover, the relationship between CO2 emission and agricultural output is positive (direct) and statistically significant in the long run. There is a positive (direct) and statistically insignificant relationship between CO2 emission and inflation rate in the short run. Notably, the EKC hypothesis indicated that the Kenya's economy is still on the environmental degradation trade-off through the gradual increase of both CO2 emission and agricultural output. Our results are important to Kenya's economy because the derived insights will assist in relevant departments to formulate sustainable strategies to minimize environmental degradation.

农业不仅受到气候变化的影响,也是二氧化碳排放的重要贡献者之一。了解二氧化碳排放和宏观经济变量对于解决肯尼亚农业和环境面临的挑战和威胁至关重要。本文采用环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)假设和自回归分布滞后模型(ADLM)分析了1983 - 2019年肯尼亚二氧化碳排放与农业产出、政府直接投资、贸易开放和通货膨胀率的关系。研究发现,从长期来看,肯尼亚的二氧化碳排放量与外国直接投资之间存在正(直接)关系。长期来看,经过误差修正期调整后,二氧化碳排放与贸易开放呈负相关(间接)且具有显著的统计学意义。此外,从长期来看,二氧化碳排放与农业产出呈正相关(直接)且具有统计学意义。在短期内,二氧化碳排放量与通货膨胀率之间存在正(直接)且统计上不显著的关系。值得注意的是,EKC假设表明,通过二氧化碳排放量和农业产出的逐渐增加,肯尼亚经济仍处于环境退化的权衡之中。我们的研究结果对肯尼亚的经济很重要,因为由此得出的见解将有助于相关部门制定可持续战略,以尽量减少环境退化。
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引用次数: 1
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Regional Sustainability
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