Advances in Applied Energy最新文献_第6页

A review of participatory modelling techniques for energy transition scenarios 能源转换情景参与式建模技术综述

IF 13 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Advances in Applied Energy

Pub Date : 2025-01-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100215

Jair K.E.K. Campfens , Mert Duygan , Claudia R. Binder

Energy transitions are pivotal for sustainability, yet their complexity and uncertainty pose significant challenges for effective planning and implementation. Participatory modelling has emerged as a promising approach to support these transitions, as it involves incorporating stakeholders' perspectives into models and policy designs, which helps integrate their mental models and preferences into simulations. This paper reviews the current state of participatory modelling in transition research for energy scenarios. Drawing on a comprehensive literature review and semi-structured interviews, we extract findings by evaluating participatory modelling techniques against criteria such as normative dimensions, non-linearity, actors and agency, uncertainty and emergence. Findings reveal that techniques like Cross-Impact Balance analysis and Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping excel in incorporating normative aspects and capturing diverse actor perspectives, yet they face challenges in addressing non-linearity and uncertainty. Bayesian Networks and Agent-Based Models are strong in managing uncertainty and modelling emergent behaviours but show limitations in normative aspects. Our findings provide a foundation for scholars and practitioners in the field of socio-technical energy transitions to select participatory modelling techniques best suited to their specific research contexts. This review also highlights gaps between theoretical potential and practical application of participatory modelling techniques. Bridging these gaps requires methodological advancement and a more rigorous application in empirical studies. To this end, future directions for blending techniques are discussed to better address the complexities of energy transitions.

能源转型对可持续发展至关重要，但其复杂性和不确定性对有效规划和实施构成了重大挑战。参与式建模已成为支持这些转变的一种有希望的方法，因为它涉及将利益相关者的观点纳入模型和政策设计，这有助于将他们的心理模型和偏好整合到模拟中。本文综述了参与式模型在能源情景转换研究中的现状。通过全面的文献综述和半结构化访谈，我们通过评估参与式建模技术对标准（如规范维度，非线性，行动者和代理，不确定性和出现）的发现。研究结果表明，交叉影响平衡分析和模糊认知映射等技术在整合规范方面和捕捉不同参与者视角方面表现出色，但它们在处理非线性和不确定性方面面临挑战。贝叶斯网络和基于代理的模型在管理不确定性和模拟紧急行为方面很强大，但在规范方面表现出局限性。我们的研究结果为社会技术能源转型领域的学者和从业者选择最适合其特定研究背景的参与式建模技术提供了基础。本综述还强调了参与式建模技术的理论潜力和实际应用之间的差距。弥合这些差距需要方法上的进步和在实证研究中更严格的应用。为此，讨论了混合技术的未来发展方向，以更好地解决能源转换的复杂性。

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引用次数: 0

Adaptive reinforcement learning for energy management – A progressive approach to boost climate resilience and energy flexibility 用于能源管理的自适应强化学习——一种提高气候适应能力和能源灵活性的渐进方法

IF 13 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Advances in Applied Energy

Pub Date : 2025-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100213

Vahid M. Nik , Kavan Javanroodi

Energy management in urban areas is challenging due to diverse energy users, dynamics environmental conditions, and the added complexity and instability of extreme weather events. We incorporate adaptive reinforcement learning (ARL) into energy management (EM) and introduce a novel approach, called ARLEM. An online, value-based, model-free ARL engine is designed that updates its policy periodically and partially by replacing less favorable actions with those better adapted to evolving environmental conditions. Multiple policy update mechanisms are assessed, varying based on the frequency and length of updates and the action selection criteria. ARLEM is tested to control the energy performance of typical urban blocks in Madrid and Stockholm considering 17 future climate scenarios for 2040–2069. Each block contains 24 buildings of different types and ages. In Madrid, ARLEM is tested for a summer with two heatwaves and in Stockholm for a winter with two cold waves. Three performance indicators are defined to evaluate the effectiveness and resilience of different control approaches during extreme weather events. ARLEM demonstrates an ability to increase climate resilience in the studied blocks by increasing energy flexibility in the network and reducing both average and peak energy demands while affecting indoor thermal comfort marginally. Since the approach does not require any information about the system dynamics, it is easy to cope with the complexities of building systems and technologies, making it an affordable technology to control large urban areas with diverse types of buildings.

由于能源用户的多样性、动态环境条件以及极端天气事件的复杂性和不稳定性，城市地区的能源管理具有挑战性。我们将自适应强化学习（ARL）整合到能量管理（EM）中，并引入了一种称为ARLEM的新方法。设计了一个在线的、基于价值的、无模型的ARL引擎，该引擎定期更新其策略，部分地通过将不太有利的操作替换为更适合不断变化的环境条件的操作。评估多个策略更新机制，根据更新的频率和长度以及操作选择标准而变化。ARLEM经过测试，以控制马德里和斯德哥尔摩典型城市街区的能源性能，考虑到2040-2069年的17种未来气候情景。每个街区包含24座不同类型和年龄的建筑。在马德里，ARLEM测试了一个有两次热浪的夏天，在斯德哥尔摩测试了一个有两次寒潮的冬天。定义了三个性能指标来评估极端天气事件中不同控制方法的有效性和弹性。ARLEM通过增加网络中的能源灵活性，降低平均和峰值能源需求，同时略微影响室内热舒适，证明了在所研究的街区中增加气候适应能力的能力。由于该方法不需要任何关于系统动力学的信息，因此很容易处理建筑系统和技术的复杂性，使其成为一种经济实惠的技术，可以控制具有不同类型建筑物的大型城市地区。

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引用次数: 0

Understanding bidding strategies of intermittent renewables in negative price environments: A theoretical and empirical analysis 负电价环境下间歇性可再生能源竞价策略的理论与实证分析

IF 13 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Advances in Applied Energy

Pub Date : 2025-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100209

Qinghu Tang , Hongye Guo , Daniel S. Kirschen , Chongqing Kang

Negative electricity prices have become increasingly prevalent with the growing penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources worldwide. Although it is widely thought that the negative prices are primarily driven by intermittent renewable energies, the bidding decision theory behind this phenomenon remains underexplored. This paper seeks to illuminate the bidding theory of intermittent renewables under negative electricity prices through not only a theoretical model but also an empirical analysis of its real-world counterpart. First, we propose a comprehensive intermittent renewable bidding decision model considering both forward contract and spot market, as well as income from both the energy market and green energy incentive, which significantly influence bidding behavior under negative price conditions. Next, we develop a data-driven approach to estimate the model’s embedded parameters using publicly available market data, enabling direct comparison with real-world counterparts. Finally, on the basis of the proposed model, we analyze the actual bid records in comparison to the optimal bidding decisions from three perspectives: strategy, behavior, and profit. Empirical results show that the proposed model can explain 80% of the bidding strategies employed by intermittent renewable power plants in a real-world market, including suboptimal strategies. Furthermore, some empirical evidence can help understand the intrinsic relationship between bidding rationality and negative price severity.

随着间歇性可再生能源在世界范围内的日益普及，负电价变得越来越普遍。尽管人们普遍认为负电价主要是由间歇性可再生能源驱动的，但这一现象背后的投标决策理论仍未得到充分探讨。本文试图通过理论模型和实证分析来阐明负电价条件下间歇性可再生能源的竞价理论。首先，考虑远期合约和现货市场，以及能源市场收益和绿色能源激励对负价格条件下竞价行为的影响，提出了一个综合的间歇性可再生能源竞价决策模型。接下来，我们开发了一种数据驱动的方法，使用公开可用的市场数据来估计模型的嵌入参数，从而能够与现实世界的对应对象进行直接比较。最后，在此模型的基础上，我们从策略、行为和利润三个角度分析了实际投标记录与最优投标决策的比较。实证结果表明，该模型可以解释现实市场中间歇性可再生能源电厂80%的竞价策略，包括次优策略。此外，一些经验证据有助于理解投标理性与负价格严重程度之间的内在关系。

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引用次数: 0

A newly developed spatially resolved modelling framework for hydrogen valleys: Methodology and functionality 新开发的氢谷空间解析建模框架：方法和功能

IF 13 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Advances in Applied Energy

Pub Date : 2025-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100207

Friedrich Mendler , Christopher Voglstätter , Nikolas Müller , Tom Smolinka , Marius Holst , Christopher Hebling , Barbara Koch

Regional initiatives, like the European hydrogen valleys, aim to solve the simultaneous absence of green hydrogen production, infrastructure, and application with coordinated development of the whole supply chain. A new model framework was developed to bridge the gap between linearised energy system models and detailed plant simulations that allows for dynamic, nonlinear simulation and optimisation of regional hydrogen systems from electricity generation to hydrogen application. The model incorporates different supply algorithms for electricity and hydrogen, representing both bilateral contracts and flexible markets. A case study demonstrates the application of the framework within a representative hydrogen valley in Germany, showing how the model can identify optimal configurations of hydrogen production, storage, and distribution infrastructure to minimise the levelized cost of hydrogen. The influence of different spatial resolutions, exchange control algorithms, and boundary conditions chain are evaluated. A too coarse spatial resolution can underestimate system cost by up to 10 % while the allowance of both bilateral hydrogen contracts and a flexible market algorithm can increase hydrogen utilisation and reduce cost by up to 15 %. An autarkic supply of hydrogen demands was possible for 7.60 €/kg, while the option to use grid electricity reduces costs to 6.37 €/kg and the option to import hydrogen to 6.60 €/kg, based on the assumptions for electricity and hydrogen prices. This work contributes to the evolving field of hydrogen economy by providing a sophisticated tool for policymakers and industry stakeholders worldwide to plan and optimise regional hydrogen valleys effectively.

区域倡议，如欧洲氢谷，旨在通过整个供应链的协调发展，解决绿色氢生产、基础设施和应用同时缺乏的问题。开发了一个新的模型框架，以弥合线性能源系统模型和详细的工厂模拟之间的差距，允许从发电到氢应用的区域氢系统的动态、非线性模拟和优化。该模型结合了电力和氢气的不同供应算法，代表了双边合同和灵活的市场。一个案例研究展示了该框架在德国一个具有代表性的氢谷中的应用，展示了该模型如何确定氢生产、储存和分配基础设施的最佳配置，以最大限度地降低氢的平均成本。评估了不同空间分辨率、交换控制算法和边界条件链的影响。过于粗糙的空间分辨率可能会低估高达10%的系统成本，而双边氢合同和灵活的市场算法可以提高氢的利用率并降低高达15%的成本。根据电力和氢气价格的假设，自给自足的氢气需求供应可能为7.60欧元/公斤，而使用电网电力的选择将成本降低至6.37欧元/公斤，进口氢气的选择将成本降低至6.60欧元/公斤。这项工作通过为全球政策制定者和行业利益相关者提供有效规划和优化区域氢谷的复杂工具，为不断发展的氢经济领域做出了贡献。

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引用次数: 0

Boosting direct-ethane solid oxide fuel cell efficiency with anchored palladium nanoparticles on perovskite-based anode 在钙钛矿基阳极上锚定钯纳米颗粒提高直接乙烷固体氧化物燃料电池效率

IF 13 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Advances in Applied Energy

Pub Date : 2025-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100206

Shuo Zhai , Junyu Cai , Idris Temitope Bello , Xi Chen , Na Yu , Rubao Zhao , Xingke Cai , Yunhong Jiang , Meng Ni , Heping Xie

An efficient anode catalyst for hydrocarbon fuel in Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC) should possess a stable phase structure, high catalytic efficiency, and excellent coke resistance. However, traditional nickel-based anodes necessitate high steam-to-carbon ratios to prevent coking, complicating system design and reducing the overall performance. In this work, we report a nickel-free PrBaFe_1.9Pd_0.1O_5+δ perovskite as anode material for direct ethane SOFC, which demonstrates superior electroactivity and chemical stability. Under a reducing atmosphere, Pd nano-catalysts exsolved in-situ are uniformly anchored to the perovskite surface. Density functional theory analyses reveal that the Pd exsolution significantly improve ethane adsorption capacity, thereby reducing activation resistance and boosting catalytic performance. When used as an anode for an SDC electrolyte-supported SOFC, superior performance is achieved with the peak power densities (PPDs) of 702 and 377 mW cm^-2 at 800 °C when using hydrogen and almost dry ethane (3% H₂O) as fuel, respectively. Moreover, the cell exhibits a stable continuous operation over 90 h under almost dry ethane atmosphere at 178 mA cm⁻², presenting a promising pathway for developing high-performance, nickel-free SOFC anodes that simplify system design and improves efficiency when operating with hydrocarbon fuels, thus holding significant potential for practical SOFC applications.

固体氧化物燃料电池（SOFC）中高效的烃类燃料阳极催化剂应具有稳定的相结构、高的催化效率和优异的抗焦炭性能。然而，传统的镍基阳极需要高蒸汽碳比来防止结焦，使系统设计复杂化并降低整体性能。在这项工作中，我们报道了一种无镍PrBaFe1.9Pd0.1O5+δ钙钛矿作为直接乙烷SOFC的阳极材料，该材料具有优异的电活性和化学稳定性。在还原气氛下，原位溶解的钯纳米催化剂被均匀地固定在钙钛矿表面。密度泛函理论分析表明，Pd解液显著提高了乙烷吸附能力，从而降低了活化阻力，提高了催化性能。当用作SDC电解质支持的SOFC阳极时，在800°C下，当使用氢气和几乎干燥的乙烷（3% H2O）作为燃料时，其峰值功率密度（PPDs）分别为702和377 mW cm-2，具有优异的性能。此外，该电池在几乎干燥的乙烷气氛下，在178毫安厘米−2下稳定连续运行超过90小时，为开发高性能、无镍SOFC阳极提供了一条有前途的途径，可以简化系统设计，提高烃类燃料运行时的效率，从而具有实际SOFC应用的巨大潜力。

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引用次数: 0

A review of scalable and privacy-preserving multi-agent frameworks for distributed energy resources 分布式能源可扩展和隐私保护多智能体框架综述

IF 13 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Advances in Applied Energy

Pub Date : 2024-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2024.100205

Xiang Huo , Hao Huang , Katherine R. Davis , H. Vincent Poor , Mingxi Liu

Distributed energy resources (DERs) are gaining prominence due to their advantages in improving energy efficiency, reducing carbon emissions, and enhancing grid resilience. Despite the increasing deployment, the potential of DERs has yet to be fully explored and exploited. A fundamental question restrains the management of numerous DERs in large-scale power systems, “How should DER data be securely processed and DER operations be efficiently optimized?” To address this question, this paper considers two critical issues, namely privacy for processing DER data and scalability in optimizing DER operations, then surveys existing and emerging solutions from a multi-agent framework perspective. In the context of scalability, this paper reviews state-of-the-art research that relies on parallel control, optimization, and learning within distributed and/or decentralized information exchange structures, while in the context of privacy, it identifies privacy preservation measures that can be synthesized into the aforementioned scalable structures. Despite research advances in these areas, challenges remain because these highly interdisciplinary studies blend a wide variety of scalable computing architectures and privacy preservation techniques from different fields, making them difficult to adapt in practice. To mitigate this issue, this paper provides a holistic review of trending strategies that orchestrate privacy and scalability for large-scale power system operations from a multi-agent perspective, particularly for DER control problems. Furthermore, this review extrapolates new approaches for future scalable, privacy-aware, and cybersecure pathways to unlock the full potential of DERs through controlling, optimizing, and learning generic multi-agent-based cyber–physical systems.

分布式能源（DERs）由于其在提高能源效率、减少碳排放和增强电网弹性方面的优势而日益受到重视。尽管部署越来越多，但DERs的潜力尚未得到充分探索和利用。一个基本问题制约着大规模电力系统中大量DER的管理，“如何安全地处理DER数据并有效地优化DER操作？”为了解决这个问题，本文考虑了两个关键问题，即处理DER数据的隐私性和优化DER操作的可扩展性，然后从多智能体框架的角度调查了现有和新兴的解决方案。在可扩展性的背景下，本文回顾了在分布式和/或分散的信息交换结构中依赖并行控制、优化和学习的最新研究，而在隐私的背景下，它确定了可以综合到上述可扩展结构中的隐私保护措施。尽管这些领域的研究取得了进展，但挑战仍然存在，因为这些高度跨学科的研究混合了来自不同领域的各种可扩展的计算架构和隐私保护技术，使它们难以在实践中适应。为了缓解这一问题，本文从多智能体的角度全面回顾了协调大规模电力系统运行的隐私和可扩展性的趋势策略，特别是对于DER控制问题。此外，本综述推断了未来可扩展、隐私感知和网络安全途径的新方法，通过控制、优化和学习通用的基于多代理的网络物理系统来释放der的全部潜力。

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引用次数: 0

Economic viability and CO2 emissions of hydrogen production for ammonia synthesis: A comparative analysis across Europe 氨合成氢生产的经济可行性和二氧化碳排放：欧洲的比较分析

IF 13 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Advances in Applied Energy

Pub Date : 2024-12-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2024.100204

Alessandro Magnino, Paolo Marocco, Massimo Santarelli, Marta Gandiglio

Ammonia production accounts for 15–20% of greenhouse gas emissions from the chemical sector. Traditionally, ammonia is produced via Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) for hydrogen production, coupled with the Haber-Bosch process. This study compares the SMR-based configuration with emerging alternatives based on water electrolysis – Proton Exchange Membrane Electrolyser Cell (PEMEC) and Solid Oxide Electrolyser Cell (SOEC) – from both economic and CO₂ emissions perspective. Process models for the three plant layouts are developed, incorporating heat integration between different components. The economic results are presented in terms of the levelised cost of ammonia, which accounts for both capital and operating expenses over the plant's lifetime. Sensitivity analyses on electricity and methane prices are conducted to assess the cost-competitiveness of each technology across various scenarios. The outcomes reveal that the optimal technology is highly dependent on electricity prices. PEMEC systems are the most cost-effective option at very low electricity prices (approximately 0.02 €/kWh_e), while SOEC systems become more competitive as prices rise due to their higher efficiency. Above 0.08 €/kWh_e, SMR emerges as the most viable option. Special attention is given to the CO₂ emissions from both SMR and electrolyser systems, also considering the carbon intensity of the electricity used. While electrolysis is often assumed to be carbon-free, this research shows that electrolysers can produce more emissions than SMR, depending on the electricity carbon intensity: when carbon intensity exceeds about 260 gCO₂/kWh_e, SMR results in lower emissions than the electrolyser-based pathways. Finally, future projections suggest that SOEC technology will become highly cost-competitive by 2030–2040.

合成氨生产占化工行业温室气体排放量的15-20%。传统上，氨是通过蒸汽甲烷重整（SMR）制氢，再加上Haber-Bosch工艺生产的。本研究从经济和二氧化碳排放的角度比较了基于smr的配置与基于水电解的新兴替代方案——质子交换膜电解槽（PEMEC）和固体氧化物电解槽（SOEC）。开发了三种工厂布局的工艺模型，包括不同组件之间的热集成。经济效益体现在氨成本的平稳化方面，这在工厂的生命周期中包括资本和运营费用。对电力和甲烷价格进行敏感性分析，以评估每种技术在各种情况下的成本竞争力。结果表明，最优技术高度依赖于电价。PEMEC系统在非常低的电价（约0.02欧元/千瓦时）下是最具成本效益的选择，而SOEC系统由于其更高的效率，随着电价的上涨，其竞争力将变得更强。在0.08欧元/千瓦时以上，SMR成为最可行的选择。特别关注SMR和电解槽系统的二氧化碳排放，也考虑到所使用的电力的碳强度。虽然电解通常被认为是无碳的，但这项研究表明，根据电力碳强度的不同，电解槽比SMR产生更多的排放：当碳强度超过约260 gCO2/ kwh时，SMR的排放量低于基于电解槽的途径。最后，未来的预测表明，到2030-2040年，SOEC技术将具有高度的成本竞争力。

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引用次数: 0

Spatio-temporal load shifting for truly clean computing 时空负载转移，实现真正的干净计算

IF 13 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Advances in Applied Energy

Pub Date : 2024-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2024.100202

Iegor Riepin , Tom Brown , Victor M. Zavala

Companies operating datacenters are increasingly committed to procuring renewable energy to reduce their carbon footprint, with a growing emphasis on achieving 24/7 Carbon-Free Energy (CFE) matching—eliminating carbon emissions from electricity use on an hourly basis. However, variability in renewable energy resources poses significant challenges to achieving this goal. This study investigates how shifting computing workloads and associated power loads across time and location supports 24/7 CFE matching. We develop an optimization model to simulate a network of geographically distributed datacenters managed by a company leveraging spatio-temporal load flexibility to achieve 24/7 CFE matching. We isolate three signals relevant for informed use of load flexibility: (1) varying average quality of renewable energy resources, (2) low correlation between wind power generation over long distances due to different weather conditions, and (3) lags in solar radiation peak due to Earth’s rotation. Our analysis reveals that datacenter location and time of year influence which signal drives an effective load-shaping strategy. By leveraging these signals for coordinated energy procurement and load-shifting decisions, clean computing becomes both more resource-efficient and cost-effective—the costs of 24/7 CFE are reduced by 1.29 ± 0.07 €/MWh for every additional percentage of flexible load. This study provides practical guidelines for datacenter companies to harness spatio-temporal load flexibility for clean computing. Our results and the open-source optimization model offer insights applicable to a broader range of industries aiming to eliminate their carbon footprints.

运营数据中心的公司越来越多地致力于采购可再生能源以减少碳足迹，越来越重视实现24/7无碳能源（CFE）匹配，即以小时为基础消除电力使用中的碳排放。然而，可再生能源的可变性对实现这一目标构成了重大挑战。本研究探讨了计算工作负载和相关的电力负载如何跨时间和地点转移以支持24/7 CFE匹配。我们开发了一个优化模型来模拟由一家公司管理的地理分布数据中心网络，利用时空负载灵活性来实现24/7 CFE匹配。我们分离出与负荷灵活性的明智使用相关的三个信号：(1)可再生能源的平均质量变化，(2)由于不同天气条件导致的长距离风力发电之间的低相关性，以及(3)由于地球自转导致的太阳辐射峰值滞后。我们的分析表明，数据中心的位置和一年中的时间会影响信号驱动有效的负载塑造策略。通过利用这些信号来协调能源采购和负载转移决策，清洁计算变得更加节约资源和成本效益-每增加一个百分比的灵活负载，24/7 CFE的成本就会降低1.29±0.07欧元/兆瓦时。本研究为数据中心公司利用时空负载灵活性进行清洁计算提供了实用指南。我们的研究结果和开源优化模型提供了适用于旨在消除碳足迹的更广泛行业的见解。

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引用次数: 0

A dynamic reliability assessment framework for integrated energy systems: A new methodology to address cascading failures 综合能源系统的动态可靠性评估框架：解决级联故障的新方法

IF 13 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Advances in Applied Energy

Pub Date : 2024-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2024.100203

Lidian Niu , Zeyan Zhao , Jiawei Tan , Tao Liang , Fuzheng Zhang , Ning Xiao , Yi He , Shan Xie , Rui Jing , Jian Lin , Feng Wang , Yingru Zhao

As the energy internet and integrated energy systems develop, the interconnections among different systems increase operational risks, highlighting the need for urgent reliability research. Recent large-scale blackouts, often caused by cascading failures, reveal that current reliability assessments frequently overlook dynamic equipment conditions and the risk of such failures. Traditional model-driven methods for single energy systems are becoming inadequate due to rapid operational changes. To address these challenges, this study proposes a reliability assessment method for integrated energy systems that considers equipment operational states and cascading failures. It introduces an equipment reliability model for simulating cascading failures due to equipment overloads after initial failures. A hybrid data-model driven approach is proposed to improve the efficiency of load reduction calculations. Then the reliability evaluation is realized by combining the analysis of system energy flow state and index calculation. The modified model simulates more failure events than conventional model and the reliability level reflected by the calculated index is lower than that of the conventional model assessment by 25.39 % to 179.13 %. Evaluation time is reduced by 98.10 % while maintaining an average relative error within 6 %. The subsystem reliability level increases by 69.72 % and decreases by 2.25 % depending on the coupling degree. Failures of less than 20 % of all fault types contributed 43.34 % to 69.59 % of the load reduction. In summary, this model effectively simulates cascading failures from changes in operating states and provides a rapid, accurate reflection of system reliability.Based on this method, the reliability influencing factors can be analyzed and the weak link can be identified.

随着能源互联网和综合能源系统的发展，不同系统之间的互连增加了运行风险，因此迫切需要进行可靠性研究。最近的大规模停电通常是由级联故障引起的，这表明目前的可靠性评估经常忽视动态设备条件和此类故障的风险。由于运行方式的快速变化，单一能源系统的传统模型驱动方法已变得不适用。为了应对这些挑战，本研究提出了一种考虑设备运行状态和级联故障的综合能源系统可靠性评估方法。引入了一种设备可靠性模型，用于模拟设备在初始故障后过载引起的级联故障。为了提高负载减少计算的效率，提出了一种混合数据模型驱动的方法。然后结合系统能量流状态分析和指标计算实现可靠性评估。修正后的模型比常规模型模拟了更多的故障事件，计算指标反映的可靠性水平比常规模型评估低25.39% ~ 179.13%。评估时间缩短了98.10%，平均相对误差保持在6%以内。根据耦合程度的不同，子系统的可靠性水平提高了69.72%，降低了2.25%。在所有故障类型中，不足20%的故障贡献了43.34%至69.59%的负荷减少。总之，该模型有效地模拟了运行状态变化引起的级联故障，并提供了快速、准确的系统可靠性反映。基于该方法，可以分析影响可靠性的因素，识别薄弱环节。

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引用次数: 0

Impact of heat pumps and future energy prices on regional inequalities 热泵和未来能源价格对区域不平等的影响

IF 13 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Advances in Applied Energy

Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2024.100201

Jieyang Xu , Sebastian Mosbach , Jethro Akroyd , Markus Kraft

The adoption of heat pumps to displace the use of gas for domestic heating is a major component of the strategy to reduce emissions in the UK. This study examines the impact of adopting heat pumps on regional inequalities in the UK. An index is used to assess how variations in household fuel costs could affect regional disparities across different future price scenarios. The findings reveal that, at 2019 prices, most households would face higher heating costs with heat pumps. However, following the 2022 energy price shock, heat pump adoption would lead to lower heating costs for most households compared to gas heating. The effect is sensitive to the electricity-to-gas price ratio, with regions experiencing high fuel poverty being most vulnerable to negative impacts. By mapping these geospatial effects, the study enables the forecasting of future inequality trends, providing insights for informed policy development. The results suggest that, under appropriate price structures, heat pump adoption could contribute to both decarbonisation and reduced social inequality. An example mechanism for financial support to mitigate the impact of adopting heat pumps on inequality is demonstrated. This study highlights the novel capability of The World Avatar (TWA) approach to integrate cross-domain data sets, combining energy policy with social equity goals. By forecasting future inequality trends based on energy price scenarios, the study provides a route to valuable insights to support informed policy development, highlighting how the adoption of heat pumps can influence regional inequalities and emphasising the need for targeted interventions to support vulnerable regions.

采用热泵取代燃气用于家庭供暖是英国减少排放战略的主要组成部分。本研究考察了采用热泵对英国地区不平等的影响。使用一个指数来评估家庭燃料成本的变化如何影响未来不同价格情景下的地区差异。调查结果显示，以2019年的价格计算，大多数家庭将面临更高的热泵供暖成本。然而，在2022年能源价格冲击之后，与燃气供暖相比，热泵的采用将使大多数家庭的供暖成本降低。这种影响对电力与天然气的价格比很敏感，燃料高度贫困的地区最容易受到负面影响。通过绘制这些地理空间效应，该研究能够预测未来的不平等趋势，为明智的政策制定提供见解。结果表明，在适当的价格结构下，采用热泵可以有助于脱碳和减少社会不平等。一个财政支持机制的例子，以减轻采用热泵对不平等的影响。本研究强调了世界化身（TWA）方法整合跨领域数据集的新能力，将能源政策与社会公平目标结合起来。通过基于能源价格情景预测未来不平等趋势，该研究为支持知情政策制定提供了有价值的见解，强调了热泵的采用如何影响区域不平等，并强调了有针对性的干预措施以支持脆弱地区的必要性。

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