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Revealing drivers of green technology adoption through explainable Artificial Intelligence 通过可解释的人工智能揭示绿色技术采用的驱动因素
IF 13.8 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100242
Dorothea Kistinger , Maurizio Titz , Philipp C. Böttcher , Michael T. Schaub , Sandra Venghaus , Dirk Witthaut
Effective governance of energy system transformation away from fossil resources requires a quantitative understanding of the diffusion of green technologies and its key influencing factors. In this article, we propose a novel machine learning approach to diffusion research focusing on actual decisions and spatial aspects complementing research on intentions and temporal dynamics. We develop machine learning models that predict regional differences in the accumulated peak power of household-scale photovoltaic systems and the share of battery electric vehicles from a large set of demographic, geographic, political, and socio-economic features. Tools from explainable artificial intelligence enable a consistent identification of the key influencing factors and quantify their impact. Focusing on data from German municipal associations, we identify common themes and differences in the adoption of green technologies. Specifically, the adoption of battery electric vehicles is strongly associated with income and election results, while the adoption of photovoltaic systems correlates with the prevalence of large dwellings and levels of global solar radiation.
对能源系统从化石资源转型的有效治理需要对绿色技术的扩散及其关键影响因素进行定量理解。在本文中,我们提出了一种新的机器学习方法来进行扩散研究,重点关注实际决策和空间方面,补充了意图和时间动态的研究。我们开发了机器学习模型,从大量的人口、地理、政治和社会经济特征中预测家庭规模光伏系统累积峰值功率的区域差异和电池电动汽车的份额。来自可解释人工智能的工具能够一致地识别关键影响因素并量化其影响。关注德国市政协会的数据,我们确定了采用绿色技术的共同主题和差异。具体来说,电池电动汽车的采用与收入和选举结果密切相关,而光伏系统的采用与大型住宅的普及和全球太阳辐射水平有关。
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引用次数: 0
Advances and challenges in energy and climate alignment of AI infrastructure expansion 人工智能基础设施扩展在能源和气候方面的进展和挑战
IF 13.8 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100243
Apoorv Lal , Fengqi You
The rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure deployment presents significant challenges for global energy systems and climate goals. While previous reviews address the sustainability of traditional data centers, Green AI approaches centered on model-level improvements or the application of AI in advancing sustainability across sectors, the energy and climate consequences of deploying AI infrastructure itself remain underexplored in prior literature. This paper reviews existing analyses on AI infrastructure’s energy and climate implications and proposes quantitative scenario-based frameworks, highlighting key research challenges at the intersection of AI-driven energy demand, region-specific clean energy strategies and their economic competitiveness, strategic levers in energy sourcing decisions, and policy dynamics. Additionally, this work identifies future research directions for aligning AI infrastructure growth with clean energy transitions through targeted mitigation opportunities across spatial and temporal horizons. First, the ambitious investment pathways for AI infrastructure development in the US underscore the need for spatially resolved scenario frameworks that reflect regional differences in deployment patterns and clean energy integration, along with the associated cost trajectories, to guide federal and state regulators. Second, the global expansion of AI infrastructure emphasizes the need for comprehensive frameworks that assess country-specific electricity demand shares, renewable transition pathways, and the influence of geopolitical restrictions, offering actionable insights for climate-conscious strategies. Finally, to prevent reinforcing fossil fuel dependency, particularly under disruptive growth scenarios, energy pathways incorporating nuclear power, renewables, energy storage, and varying grid reliance are explored as part of broader clean energy transitions, especially in regions facing energy security challenges.
人工智能(AI)基础设施部署的快速增长对全球能源系统和气候目标提出了重大挑战。虽然之前的评论涉及传统数据中心的可持续性,但绿色人工智能方法侧重于模型级改进或人工智能在促进跨部门可持续性方面的应用,但在先前的文献中,部署人工智能基础设施本身对能源和气候的影响仍未得到充分探讨。本文回顾了关于人工智能基础设施对能源和气候影响的现有分析,并提出了基于情景的定量框架,强调了人工智能驱动的能源需求、特定区域的清洁能源战略及其经济竞争力、能源采购决策的战略杠杆和政策动态等交叉领域的关键研究挑战。此外,这项工作确定了未来的研究方向,通过跨时空的有针对性的缓解机会,使人工智能基础设施的增长与清洁能源的过渡保持一致。首先,美国人工智能基础设施发展的雄心勃勃的投资途径强调了对空间解决方案框架的需求,这些框架反映了部署模式和清洁能源整合的地区差异,以及相关的成本轨迹,以指导联邦和州监管机构。其次,人工智能基础设施的全球扩张强调需要建立综合框架,评估各国具体的电力需求份额、可再生能源转型途径和地缘政治限制的影响,为气候意识战略提供可操作的见解。最后,为了防止加剧对化石燃料的依赖,特别是在破坏性增长情景下,作为更广泛的清洁能源转型的一部分,特别是在面临能源安全挑战的地区,我们探索了包括核电、可再生能源、储能和不同电网依赖的能源途径。
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引用次数: 0
Ensemble learning framework for radiative cooling coatings in China’s buildings 中国建筑辐射冷却涂料的集成学习框架
IF 13.8 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100241
Ze Li , Jianheng Chen , Wenqi Wang , Yang Fu , Xin Li , Aiqiang Pan , Yiying Zhou , Shimelis Admassie , Chi Yan Tso
Radiative cooling (RC) coatings have emerged as a promising strategy to mitigate the urban heat island effect and improve energy performance in residential buildings. However, their effect varies significantly across different climate zones and urban configurations, underscoring the need for targeted deployment strategies. In this study, an ensemble learning framework was developed by integrating the urban canopy model with the building energy model to predict the energy performance of RC coatings on residential buildings throughout China. A dataset of 5080 cases was generated, and CatBoost demonstrated excellent predictive accuracy (R2 = 0.948–0.989). SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis identified longwave radiation and building geometry as the most influential factors affecting RC coating energy performance. The trained prediction model was further applied to evaluate six representative cities across diverse climate zones, for community-level evaluation. Additionally, national-scale predictions were conducted by the framework, using simulations of 111 cities, showing RC coatings are most effective in climate zones with hot summer and warm winter, with maximum annual electricity savings of approximately 50 MWh and maximum carbon emission reductions of around 20 kg·m-2 per year in a hypothetical residential neighborhood. In contrast, their benefits are more limited in cold climate zones due to increased heating demand. These findings provide an effective framework for optimizing RC coating deployment strategies under varying climatic conditions. Furthermore, the framework holds the potential to expand these analyses globally, enabling the evaluation of RC coatings across diverse building types and regions to support worldwide energy and carbon reduction goals.
辐射冷却(RC)涂料已成为一种有前途的策略,以减轻城市热岛效应和提高能源性能的住宅建筑。然而,它们的影响在不同的气候带和城市配置中差异很大,这强调了有针对性的部署策略的必要性。在本研究中,通过将城市顶棚模型与建筑能耗模型相结合,建立了一个集成学习框架来预测中国住宅RC涂料的能耗性能。生成了5080个病例的数据集,CatBoost显示出良好的预测准确率(R2 = 0.948-0.989)。SHapley加性解释分析发现,长波辐射和建筑几何是影响RC涂层节能性能的最大因素。将训练后的预测模型应用于6个不同气候带的代表性城市,进行社区层面的评价。此外,通过对111个城市的模拟,该框架进行了全国范围的预测,表明RC涂料在夏季炎热和冬季温暖的气候区最为有效,在一个假设的居民区,每年最多可节省约50兆瓦时的电力,最多可减少约20公斤·m-2的碳排放。相比之下,由于供暖需求增加,它们的效益在寒冷气候地区更为有限。这些发现为在不同气候条件下优化RC涂层部署策略提供了有效的框架。此外,该框架具有在全球范围内扩展这些分析的潜力,能够对不同建筑类型和地区的RC涂料进行评估,以支持全球能源和碳减排目标。
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引用次数: 0
A systematic review of reinforcement learning in Building-Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV) optimization 建筑集成光伏(BIPV)优化中强化学习的系统综述
IF 13.8 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100239
Jiaqi Li , Hongbin Xie , Jingyuan Zhang , Lianxin Li , Ge Song , Hongdi Fu , Panxi Chen , Chenyang Liu , Liyu Zhang , Zhuoran Shi , Qing Yu , Xuan Song , Haoran Zhang
Building-Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV), as an emerging clean energy solution, plays a crucial role in energy saving, emission reduction, and grid load regulation. However, due to the uncertainty of dynamic environments and the complexity of multiple sensitive parameters, traditional scheduling methods fail to achieve optimal results. Considering that reinforcement learning, as an advanced research approach, demonstrates great potential in decision-making for high-dimensional problems and stability in dynamic environments, integrating reinforcement learning with BIPV is a feasible solution to address scheduling challenges in BIPV systems. However, there is still a lack of comprehensive analysis and systematic understanding of reinforcement learning applications in the BIPV field, which, to some extent, limits its further development in the BIPV domain. To this end, this review conducts an in-depth analysis of the effectiveness of reinforcement learning in BIPV applications from the perspective of the system construction life cycle. By considering the algorithm modeling life cycle of reinforcement learning, it comprehensively examines the potential issues in its application to BIPV, highlighting the challenges faced by existing research and future applications. Additionally, this paper integrates cutting-edge reinforcement learning knowledge, summarizes and categorizes its potential applications in BIPV, providing reference guidance for future research directions. Through this systematic review of reinforcement learning applications in the BIPV field, this study aims to offer valuable insights for subsequent research.
建筑一体化光伏(BIPV)作为一种新兴的清洁能源解决方案,在节能减排和调节电网负荷方面发挥着至关重要的作用。然而,由于动态环境的不确定性和多个敏感参数的复杂性,传统的调度方法无法达到最优的调度效果。考虑到强化学习作为一种先进的研究方法,在高维问题的决策和动态环境的稳定性方面显示出巨大的潜力,将强化学习与BIPV集成是解决BIPV系统调度挑战的可行方案。然而,目前对于强化学习在BIPV领域的应用还缺乏全面的分析和系统的认识,这在一定程度上限制了其在BIPV领域的进一步发展。为此,本文从系统构建生命周期的角度深入分析了强化学习在BIPV应用中的有效性。通过考虑强化学习的算法建模生命周期,全面考察了其在BIPV应用中可能存在的问题,突出了现有研究和未来应用面临的挑战。此外,本文整合了最前沿的强化学习知识,对其在BIPV中的潜在应用进行了总结和分类,为未来的研究方向提供了参考指导。通过系统回顾强化学习在BIPV领域的应用,本研究旨在为后续研究提供有价值的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Flexibility potential of electric vehicle charging: A trip chain analysis under bi-criterion stochastic dynamic user equilibrium 电动汽车充电灵活性潜力:双准则随机动态用户均衡下的行程链分析
IF 13.8 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100240
Shuyi Tang, Yunfei Mu, Hongjie Jia, Xiaolong Jin, Xiaodan Yu
The widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) creates opportunities to use EV charging load as a flexible resource to improve grid operation. In urban areas, EV users typically follow trip chains in their daily travel, offering temporal and spatial flexibility in EV charging. Specifically, charging at slow-charging spots at trip destinations is temporally flexible when the parking duration exceeds the required charging time. In contrast, charging at fast charging stations (FCSs) during trips is spatially flexible, with route and FCS choice influenced by traffic congestion, FCS charging prices, and user perception. In this paper, we propose a bi-criterion stochastic dynamic user equilibrium (SDUE) model with trip chain demand, which captures route and FCS choice of EV users and derives fast and slow charging loads. The model accounts for user response to traffic congestion and FCS charging prices, along with the randomness in user perception of trip utility. A quantitative evaluation is also presented on the spatial flexibility of fast charging driven by price incentives, and the temporal flexibility of slow charging enabled by long parking durations. A case study in Sioux Falls is conducted to evaluate the flexibility potential of EV charging, revealing that reduced randomness in user perception enhances the spatial flexibility potential of fast charging. Additionally, the temporal flexibility potential of slow charging varies across location types, such as home, work, and other locations, depending on arrival times and parking durations. This research provides key insights for optimizing grid management and enhancing EV integration into power systems.
电动汽车的广泛采用为利用电动汽车充电负荷作为改善电网运行的灵活资源创造了机会。在城市地区,电动汽车用户在日常出行中通常遵循出行链,这为电动汽车充电提供了时间和空间上的灵活性。具体而言,当停车时间超过充电时间时,在旅行目的地的慢速充电点充电具有暂时的灵活性。在出行过程中,快速充电站的充电具有空间灵活性,其路径和充电站的选择受到交通拥堵、充电站充电价格和用户感知的影响。本文提出了考虑出行链需求的随机动态用户平衡(SDUE)双准则模型,该模型捕捉电动汽车用户的路径选择和FCS选择,并推导出快速和慢速充电负荷。该模型考虑了用户对交通拥堵和FCS收费价格的反应,以及用户对出行效用感知的随机性。定量评价了价格激励下的快速充电的空间灵活性和停车时间长的慢速充电的时间灵活性。以苏福尔斯市为例,评估了电动汽车充电的灵活性潜力,发现用户感知随机性的降低增强了快速充电的空间灵活性潜力。此外,慢速充电的时间灵活性潜力因地点类型而异,如家庭、工作和其他地点,这取决于到达时间和停车时间。该研究为优化电网管理和提高电动汽车与电力系统的整合提供了关键见解。
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引用次数: 0
Enhancing flexibility in wind-powered hydrogen production systems through coordinated electrolyzer operation 通过协调电解槽操作,提高风力制氢系统的灵活性
IF 13.8 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100228
Zhang Bai , Wenjie Hao , Qi Li , Rujing Yan , Bin Ding , Weiming Shao , Long Gao , Tieliu Jiang , Yongsheng Wang , Caifeng Wen
Wind-powered water electrolysis for hydrogen production is a sustainable and environmentally friendly energy technology. However, the inherent intermittency and variability of wind power, significantly damage the stability and efficiency of the hydrogen production system. To enhance the operational flexibility and system efficiency, a novel wind-hydrogen production system is proposed, which integrates a new coordination of the conventional alkaline electrolyzers (AEL) and proton exchange membrane electrolyzers (PEMEL), for optimizing the dynamic operation of the system under fluctuating wind power. The developed approach employs variational mode decomposition to classify wind power fluctuations into different frequency components, which are then allocated to suitable type of electrolyzers. The configurations of the developed system are optimized using the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm, and the operating scenarios are dynamically analyzed through clustering techniques. Compared to the AEL-only system, the proposed system demonstrates significant enhancements, with energy efficiency and internal rate of return increased by 5.78 % and 10.65 %, respectively. Meanwhile, the coordinated operation extends the continuous operating time of the AEL by 7.08 %. The proposed approach enhances the economic viability and operational stability of wind-powered hydrogen production, providing a valuable reference for industrial green hydrogen applications.
风力水电解制氢是一种可持续、环保的能源技术。然而,风力发电固有的间歇性和可变性,严重损害了制氢系统的稳定性和效率。为了提高系统运行的灵活性和效率,提出了一种新型的风力制氢系统,该系统将传统的碱性电解槽(AEL)和质子交换膜电解槽(PEMEL)集成在一起,以优化系统在波动风力下的动态运行。所开发的方法采用变分模态分解将风电波动划分为不同的频率分量,然后将其分配给合适类型的电解槽。采用非支配排序遗传算法对所开发的系统进行配置优化,并通过聚类技术对运行场景进行动态分析。与纯ael系统相比,该系统的能源效率和内部收益率分别提高了5.78%和10.65%。同时,协同运行使AEL的连续运行时间延长了7.08%。该方法提高了风力制氢的经济可行性和运行稳定性,为工业绿色氢应用提供了有价值的参考。
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引用次数: 0
Physics-informed modularized neural network for advanced building control by deep reinforcement learning 基于深度强化学习的先进建筑控制的物理信息模块化神经网络
IF 13.8 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-08-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100237
Zixin Jiang, Xuezheng Wang, Bing Dong
Physics-informed machine learning (PIML) provides a promising solution for building energy modeling and can be used as a virtual environment to enable reinforcement learning (RL) agents to interact and learn. However, how to integrate physics priors efficiently, evaluate the effectiveness of physics constraints, balance model accuracy and physics consistency, and enable real-world implementation remain open challenges. To address these gaps, this study introduces a Physics-Informed Modularized Neural Network (PI-ModNN), which integrates physics priors through a physics-informed model structure, loss functions, and hard constraints. A new evaluation matrix called “temperature response violation” is developed to quantify the physical consistency of data-driven building dynamic models under varying control inputs and training data sizes. Additionally, a physics prior evaluation framework based on “rule importance” is proposed to quantify the contribution of each individual physical priors, offering guidance on selecting appropriate PIML techniques. The results indicate that incorporating physical priors does not always improve model performance; inappropriate physical priors could decrease model accuracy and consistency. However, hard constraints effectively enforce model consistency. Furthermore, we present a general workflow for developing control-oriented PIML models and integrating them with deep reinforcement learning (DRL). Following this framework, a case study of implementation DRL in an office space for three months demonstrates potential energy savings of 31.4%. Finally, we provide a general guideline for integrating data-driven models with advanced building control through a four-step evaluation framework, paving the way for reliable and scalable implementation of advanced building controls.
物理信息机器学习(PIML)为建筑能源建模提供了一个有前途的解决方案,可以用作虚拟环境,使强化学习(RL)代理能够交互和学习。然而,如何有效地整合物理先验,评估物理约束的有效性,平衡模型准确性和物理一致性,并使现实世界的实施仍然是一个开放的挑战。为了解决这些问题,本研究引入了一种物理信息模块化神经网络(PI-ModNN),该网络通过物理信息模型结构、损失函数和硬约束集成了物理先验。为了量化不同控制输入和训练数据大小下数据驱动的建筑动态模型的物理一致性,建立了一个新的评价矩阵“温度响应违逆”。此外,提出了一个基于“规则重要性”的物理先验评价框架,以量化每个物理先验的贡献,为选择合适的PIML技术提供指导。结果表明,加入物理先验并不一定能提高模型的性能;不适当的物理先验会降低模型的准确性和一致性。然而,硬约束有效地加强了模型的一致性。此外,我们提出了开发面向控制的PIML模型并将其与深度强化学习(DRL)集成的一般工作流程。在此框架下,一个在办公空间实施DRL三个月的案例研究表明,潜在的节能效果为31.4%。最后,我们通过四步评估框架提供了将数据驱动模型与先进建筑控制集成的一般指南,为可靠和可扩展的先进建筑控制实施铺平了道路。
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引用次数: 0
A critical review of use cases and insights from a large dataset of smart thermostats 对智能恒温器大型数据集的用例和见解进行了批判性回顾
IF 13.8 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-08-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100236
Han Li , William O’Brien , Vivian Loftness , Erica Cochran Hameen , Tianzhen Hong
Residential buildings consume a significant portion (17 % in 2023) of the global primary energy. Smart thermostat has become a proven technology in the residential building sector that offers insights into energy efficiency, HVAC system operation, and indoor thermal comfort of occupants. Although there are an increasing number of studies using the available large scale smart thermostat dataset, there lacks a holistic review of the existing literature to understand what applications have been conducted and what outcomes have been offered. This paper reviews 57 articles published between January 2015 and March 2025 using the open access ecobee Donate Your Data (DYD) dataset, where >200,000 customers participated in the voluntary data donation program. Articles are analyzed by major application areas including occupant behavior and IEQ assessment, energy performance evaluation, HVAC operations and controls, and building thermal dynamics. Two major limitations of the DYD dataset are the lack of measured energy use of HVAC systems and the coarse city-level building location information and limits applications requiring energy use data and introduces errors in ignoring the urban microclimate effects influencing a home’s operation and performance. Gaps and challenges of using the ecobee thermostat dataset for research were analyzed. Future efforts should focus on improving data collection and fusing other datasets with the ecobee DYD dataset to unlock new applications and improve analytics accuracy. Furthermore, AI emerges as a powerful tool to help clean up, integrate, and analyze the thermostat dataset, create and calibrate energy models, as well as inferring residential building operation and performance at scale.
住宅建筑消耗了全球一次能源的很大一部分(2023年为17%)。智能恒温器已经成为住宅建筑领域的一项成熟技术,它提供了对能源效率、暖通空调系统运行和居住者室内热舒适的见解。尽管越来越多的研究使用了现有的大规模智能恒温器数据集,但缺乏对现有文献的全面审查,以了解已经进行了哪些应用以及已经提供了哪些结果。本文回顾了2015年1月至2025年3月期间发表的57篇文章,使用开放获取的ecobee捐赠数据(DYD)数据集,其中有20万客户参与了自愿数据捐赠计划。文章分析了主要应用领域,包括居住者行为和IEQ评价,能源性能评价,暖通空调运行和控制,以及建筑热动力学。DYD数据集的两个主要限制是缺乏HVAC系统的实测能源使用和粗略的城市级建筑位置信息,限制了需要能源使用数据的应用,并引入了忽略影响家庭运行和性能的城市微气候效应的错误。分析了使用ecobee恒温器数据集进行研究的差距和挑战。未来的工作应该集中在改进数据收集和融合其他数据集与ecobee DYD数据集,以解锁新的应用程序和提高分析的准确性。此外,人工智能成为一种强大的工具,可以帮助清理、整合和分析恒温器数据集,创建和校准能源模型,以及大规模推断住宅建筑的运营和性能。
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引用次数: 0
Climate-resilient energy systems planning via system-informed identification of stressful events 通过系统信息识别压力事件进行气候适应型能源系统规划
IF 13.8 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-08-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100235
Francesco De Marco, Jacob Mannhardt, Alfredo Oneto, Giovanni Sansavini
As the energy mix increasingly relies on weather-dependent renewable sources, energy systems become more vulnerable to climate variability and extremes. However, current planning approaches struggle to incorporate climate uncertainty in the design phase while maintaining computational tractability. We address this challenge by developing a framework that combines system-informed scenario reduction and stochastic optimization to design climate-resilient energy systems. Our method reduces data complexity by identifying representative climate scenarios that capture stress events through system response. Remarkably, five distinct patterns of multi-day energy shortages emerge across Europe, each characterized by different combinations of renewable resource availability and demand profiles. Stochastic optimization then incorporates these representative climate scenarios with their associated probabilities to design energy systems that are resilient across the full spectrum of climate variability. Results show that climate-resilient designs consistently outperform conventional single-climate designs, achieving lower costs (on average 14.8 bn EUR) for equivalent resilience levels. We identify two trade-off regions with different marginal costs of resilience: a low-resilience and a high-resilience region where marginal costs increase fivefold. Despite higher costs, trade-offs between the cost of resilience investments against energy not supplied justify pursuing the high levels of resilience. Combinations of onshore wind and hydrogen storage emerge as effective mitigation against multi-day events of energy shortage. This framework provides energy planners and policymakers with quantifiable insights into resilience investment strategies and technology selection for future climate-aware energy planning.
由于能源结构越来越依赖于依赖天气的可再生能源,能源系统变得更容易受到气候变化和极端事件的影响。然而,目前的规划方法难以在保持计算可追溯性的同时,将气候不确定性纳入设计阶段。我们通过开发一个框架来解决这一挑战,该框架结合了系统知情情景减少和随机优化来设计气候适应性能源系统。我们的方法通过识别通过系统响应捕获压力事件的代表性气候情景来降低数据复杂性。值得注意的是,整个欧洲出现了五种不同的多日能源短缺模式,每种模式都以可再生资源的可用性和需求概况的不同组合为特征。然后,随机优化将这些有代表性的气候情景与其相关的概率结合起来,设计出在整个气候变率范围内具有弹性的能源系统。结果表明,气候弹性设计始终优于传统的单一气候设计,在同等弹性水平下实现更低的成本(平均148亿欧元)。我们确定了两个具有不同弹性边际成本的权衡区域:低弹性区域和边际成本增加五倍的高弹性区域。尽管成本较高,但在弹性投资成本与未供应能源之间进行权衡,证明了追求高水平弹性的合理性。陆上风能和氢储存的结合成为缓解多日能源短缺事件的有效手段。该框架为能源规划者和政策制定者提供了可量化的关于弹性投资战略和未来气候意识能源规划技术选择的见解。
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引用次数: 0
District heating network topology optimization and optimal co-planning using dynamic simulations 基于动态仿真的区域供热网络拓扑优化与最优协同规划
IF 13 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2025-07-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.adapen.2025.100233
Jonathan Vieth, Jan Westphal, Arne Speerforck
District heating networks play a critical role in the transition of the heating supply of buildings to renewable sources. The transition from coal-fired or gas-fired generation units to heat pumps requires new planning methods for district heating networks, since the efficiency of a heat pump is affected strongly by the supply temperature of the district heating network. Therefore, a co-planning approach including the operation of the district heating network in the planning process is required. This paper presents a novel co-planning approach consisting of two steps. First, an optimal district heating network topology is generated from real geo-referenced data. To determine the optimal topology, a new algorithm designed specifically for district heating networks is presented. Next, a simulation model is automatically generated from the respective topology. An optimization is used for the co-planning approach to select an optimal generation unit, find the optimal supply temperature, and dimension the pipes of the district heating network. In contrast to conventional district heating network planning procedures, the optimization includes a full-year dynamic simulation of the district heating network. The result of the planning process is a full y parameterized district heating network with a matching supply temperature. Furthermore, the use of simulation models allows the results to be reused for sensitivity analyses. This is illustrated by examining the selection of generation units under different CO2 price scenarios.
区域供热网络在建筑向可再生能源供热的过渡中发挥着关键作用。从燃煤或燃气发电机组过渡到热泵需要新的区域供热网络规划方法,因为热泵的效率受到区域供热网络供应温度的强烈影响。因此,在规划过程中需要采用包括区域供热网络运行在内的共同规划方法。本文提出了一种由两个步骤组成的新型协同规划方法。首先,根据实际地理参考数据生成最优区域供热网络拓扑结构。为了确定最优拓扑,提出了一种专门针对区域供热网络的新算法。接下来,从各自的拓扑中自动生成仿真模型。采用优化的协同规划方法,选择最优发电机组,确定最优供热温度,确定区域供热管网的管道尺寸。与传统的区域供热网络规划程序相比,优化包括区域供热网络的全年动态模拟。规划过程的结果是一个具有匹配供应温度的全参数化区域供热网络。此外,模拟模型的使用允许结果被重新用于敏感性分析。这可以通过检查不同二氧化碳价格情景下发电机组的选择来说明。
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引用次数: 0
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Advances in Applied Energy
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