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2016 11th International Conference on Reliability, Maintainability and Safety (ICRMS)最新文献

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Fuzzy fault tree theory-based fault search strategy research for FAST hydraulic actuators 基于模糊故障树理论的FAST液压执行器故障搜索策略研究
Ming-Ming Zhu, Lei Yang, Zheng Lei, Yong Wang
As the active mechanism of the main reflector system for a Five Hundred Meter Aperture Spherical Radio Telescope (FAST), the reliable operation of 2225 hydraulic actuators is the basis of normal observation for the telescope. The purpose of this research is to find the right fault search strategy for these hydraulic actuators. According to the characteristics of hydraulic systems, this study proposes a fault search strategy analysis method based on fuzzy fault tree theory. Considering the maintenance factors of hydraulic actuators, such as the searching cost, the failure probability and the degree of influence, the optimal search strategy model for fault diagnosing of hydraulic actuators is established. The multi objective optimization decision theory and sequential decision theory are also applied in this model. Finally, the fault search order for FAST hydraulic actuators is calculated. The top three fault search components are motor, controller and hydraulic control check valve. The calculated results are in agreement with the reliability test results and Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) of hydraulic actuators. This study has guiding significance for the maintenance of the hydraulic actuators for FAST.
2225液压作动器作为500米口径球面射电望远镜(FAST)主反射系统的主动机构,其可靠运行是望远镜正常观测的基础。本研究的目的是为这些液压执行机构找到合适的故障搜索策略。针对液压系统的特点,提出了一种基于模糊故障树理论的故障搜索策略分析方法。考虑液压作动器维修过程中搜索成本、故障概率和影响程度等因素,建立了液压作动器故障诊断的最优搜索策略模型。该模型还应用了多目标优化决策理论和序列决策理论。最后,计算了FAST液压执行机构的故障搜索顺序。排在前三位的故障搜索部件是电机、控制器和液压控制止回阀。计算结果与液压作动器可靠性试验结果和失效模式效应及临界度分析(FMECA)结果一致。该研究对FAST液压执行机构的维护具有指导意义。
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引用次数: 0
Partitioning strategy based on safety in integrated modular avionics 集成模块化航电系统中基于安全的分区策略
Dalin Shen, Xiaohong Bao, T. Zhao, Pengtao Zhao
Integrated Modular Avionics, which has replaced traditional federal architecture, is now widely used in the aircraft. Robust partitioning is adopted by new architecture to cope with the failure propagation due to resource sharing. However, if the activity of allocating applications to partitions doesn't consider the common cause failure and coupling relations among avionic functions, it can intensify the failure propagation. At present, a lot of researches take into account the application software's functionality and criticality in the software configuration activities, but not include other factors which are also indispensable. In this paper, we proposed a partitioning method from the safety perspective. Firstly, we identified the process of allocating applications to partitions from the partitioning configuration activities referred to Do-297 and built the partitioned system model. Three safety factors which should be satisfied by the process were introduced. Then, we presented the safety constraints based on the safety factors. Finally, we proposed the partitioning strategy on the basic of safety constraints and partitioned system model. This partitioning strategy will be the theoretical basis for the scientific partitioning method in future and ensure the implementation of robust partitioning in Integrated Modular Avionics.
集成模块化航空电子设备已经取代了传统的联邦结构,现在广泛应用于飞机上。新体系结构采用鲁棒分区来应对由于资源共享而导致的故障传播。然而,如果将应用程序分配到分区的活动中不考虑航空电子功能之间的共同原因故障和耦合关系,则会加剧故障的传播。目前,很多研究在软件组态活动中只考虑了应用软件的功能性和关键性,而没有考虑其他同样不可或缺的因素。本文从安全的角度提出了一种分区方法。首先,我们从Do-297中提到的分区配置活动中确定了将应用程序分配到分区的过程,并构建了分区系统模型。介绍了该工艺应满足的三个安全系数。在此基础上,提出了基于安全系数的安全约束。最后,提出了基于安全约束和分区系统模型的分区策略。该划分策略将为今后采用科学的划分方法提供理论基础,保证集成模块化航电系统中鲁棒划分的实现。
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引用次数: 0
Research on imperfect preventive maintenance strategy for turret system of the CNC lathe 数控车床转塔系统不完善预防性维护策略研究
Fei Chen, Heng Zhang, Binbin Xu, Xiaojuan Chen, Zhaojun Yang, Yifeng Ye, Qunya Xie
The turret system is one of the key functional components of the CNC lathe. Therefore it is important that the reliability of the turret system is optimised. In this paper, an imperfect preventive maintenance strategy, based on the Weibull distribution, for the turret system of the CNC lathe is proposed. The restoration and failure intensity increase factors are consistent with a uniform distribution. However, the cost of preventive maintenance increases with the preventive maintenance frequency being increased. Then maintenance time should also be considered. A flexible preventive maintenance model is described in this paper. The aim is to minimize the total maintenance cost overall. The preventive maintenance interval of the model was calculated using the limited reliability value, in order to find the optimal flexible preventive maintenance strategy. Finally, the optimal preventive maintenance results under different cost parameters are discussed.
转塔系统是数控车床的关键功能部件之一。因此,优化炮塔系统的可靠性是非常重要的。针对数控车床转塔系统,提出了一种基于威布尔分布的不完全预防性维修策略。恢复和破坏强度增加因子均呈均匀分布。然而,随着预防性维护频率的增加,预防性维护的成本也随之增加。那么维护时间也要考虑。本文描述了一种柔性预防性维修模型。目标是使总体维护成本最小化。利用有限可靠性值计算模型的预防维修间隔,从而找到最优的柔性预防维修策略。最后讨论了不同成本参数下的最优预防性维修结果。
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引用次数: 6
Storage reliability assessment for electromechanical components with small sampling based on prior information prediction 基于先验信息预测的小样本机电部件存储可靠性评估
X. Ye, Yigang Lin, Rao Fu, Bokai Zheng, G. Zhai
The storage reliability of electromechanical products such as relays and contactors, which are widely used in the aerospace and military fields, will directly affect the performance of the systems in which they are used. For the existing problem of storage reliability assessment for small samples of aerospace relays and other electromechanical products produced on a small scale, a particle filter and Bayesian theory based storage reliability evaluation method is proposed. Firstly, with the application of a particle filter, the distribution of the degradation model parameters is estimated by combining the initial distribution of degradation parameters with actual degradation data to predict the distribution of the degradation data for each test time. Secondly, we consider the predicted distribution to be prior information, then calculate the prior estimation of degradation data distribution hyper-parameters within the constraints of reliability distribution function information entropy maximization. Then we fuse the tested degradation data from the samples with the Bayesian formula to compute the posterior estimation of the hyper-parameters. After that, we obtain the interval estimation of storage reliability by solving a non-central t distribution. Finally, a specific aerospace electromagnetic relay was taken as an example to illustrate the method in detail and verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.
广泛应用于航空航天和军事领域的继电器、接触器等机电产品的存储可靠性将直接影响到所使用系统的性能。针对航空航天继电器等机电产品小样本存储可靠性评估存在的问题,提出了一种基于粒子滤波和贝叶斯理论的存储可靠性评估方法。首先,应用粒子滤波方法,将退化参数的初始分布与实际退化数据相结合,估计退化模型参数的分布,预测每个试验时间退化数据的分布;其次,将预测分布视为先验信息,在可靠性分布函数信息熵最大化约束下,计算退化数据分布超参数的先验估计;然后,我们用贝叶斯公式融合来自样本的测试退化数据来计算超参数的后验估计。然后,通过求解非中心t分布得到存储可靠性的区间估计。最后,以某航空航天电磁继电器为例,对该方法进行了详细说明,验证了该方法的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Maintenance request prediction for airplanes based on multivariate damage model 基于多变量损伤模型的飞机维修需求预测
Dao Zhong, Jing Feng, Quan Sun, Zhengqiang Pan, N. Yang
Field data is often used as the basis for the prediction of an airplanes maintenance request. In the traditional methods, maintenance request predictions are mainly obtained immediately using data. However, uncertainty analysis during the failure detection is ignored, which makes maintenance request inaccurate. To overcome the above problems, a novel approach is proposed in this paper: a multivariate damage model is established to obtain the degree of airplane damage, which is used as an indicator for maintenance request predictions. On the basis of the degree of damage, uncertainty analysis can be effectively described using a stochastic process and the Markov process. The transition probability and transition time corresponding to the potential detection rate and date of maintenance, which are used to determine the distribution of maintenance requests. Experiments are implemented based on field data of a certain type of airplane. Results confirm that the proposed method performs well in the predictions of maintenance requests.
现场数据经常被用作飞机维修需求预测的基础。在传统的方法中,维修需求预测主要是利用数据进行即时预测。然而,在故障检测过程中忽略了不确定性分析,导致维修要求不准确。为了克服上述问题,本文提出了一种新的方法:建立多变量损伤模型来获得飞机的损伤程度,并将其作为维修需求预测的指标。在损伤程度的基础上,利用随机过程和马尔可夫过程可以有效地描述不确定性分析。潜在检测率和维修日期对应的过渡概率和过渡时间,用于确定维修请求的分布。根据某型飞机的现场数据进行了试验。结果表明,该方法在维修需求预测方面具有较好的效果。
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引用次数: 0
Satellite lifetime prediction with random failure 随机失效的卫星寿命预测
Haitao Zhao, Hui Yang, Xiao Xiong
The remaining life prediction of the satellite is of great significance in the operation of the satellite and the maintenance strategy of the constellation. The existing life prediction methods only consider the propellant consumption, thus a new dynamic life prediction method considering not only consumption but also random failure and degradation is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the failure characteristics of the satellite are analyzed, and then the satellite life model is established which contains three kinds of mechanisms including random failure, degradation and consumption. Secondly, according to current satellite operation data and Monte Carlo simulation model, the satellite remaining life is obtained through the comparison of the different lifetime determined by each mechanism. Finally, in a case study, the remaining life of 5 satellites on orbit is analyzed. The analysis results show that this new method is more accurate and credible.
卫星剩余寿命预测对卫星运行和星座维护策略具有重要意义。现有的寿命预测方法只考虑推进剂的消耗,本文提出了一种既考虑推进剂消耗又考虑随机失效和退化的动态寿命预测方法。首先分析了卫星的失效特征,然后建立了包含随机失效、退化和损耗三种机制的卫星寿命模型。其次,根据现有卫星运行数据和蒙特卡罗仿真模型,通过比较各机制确定的不同寿命,得到卫星剩余寿命;最后,通过实例分析了5颗在轨卫星的剩余寿命。分析结果表明,该方法具有更高的精度和可信度。
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引用次数: 2
Transformation rules from AADL to improved colored GSPN for integrated modular avionics 集成模块化航空电子设备从AADL到改进彩色GSPN的转换规则
Rongbin Han, Shihai Wang
Although integrated modular avionics (IMA) provides many advantages such as the reduced weight and higher efficiency for system operations, safety problems with correlations of system states come up due to its resource sharing mechanism. Correlations of system states contribute to the fault propagation in IMA systems. In other words, when a shared resource goes into an error state, components which have access to that resource may work in a failed state. Additionally, this process is dynamic during the system running. Model-based method is an adequate approach to analyzing system safety dynamically with correlations of system states. Architecture Analysis and Design Language (AADL) has advantage to model for embedded systems. However, it is quite limited to employ AADL dynamically for analyzing system safety. This paper seeks to translate the AADL models into improved colored GSPN models, which have advantage to simulate with system run-time properties such as time and event occurrence probabilities as well as other properties of system components. Furthermore, the paper focuses on this transformation process without any loss of key modeling elements including those properties mentioned above. Based on this work, subsequent analysis can be conducted. A case study is provided for indicating the application of these transformation rules.
集成化模块化航空电子系统(IMA)具有减轻系统重量、提高系统运行效率等优点,但由于其资源共享机制,存在系统状态相关的安全问题。系统状态的相关性有助于IMA系统的故障传播。换句话说,当共享资源进入错误状态时,访问该资源的组件可能会在失败状态下工作。此外,该进程在系统运行期间是动态的。基于模型的方法是利用系统状态的相关性动态分析系统安全性的一种有效方法。体系结构分析与设计语言(AADL)在嵌入式系统建模方面具有优势。但是,动态地采用AADL分析系统安全性有很大的局限性。本文试图将AADL模型转化为改进的彩色GSPN模型,该模型有利于用系统运行时属性(如时间和事件发生概率)以及系统组件的其他属性进行模拟。此外,本文关注的是在不丢失包括上述属性在内的关键建模元素的情况下进行转换的过程。在此基础上,可以进行后续分析。提供了一个案例研究来说明这些转换规则的应用。
{"title":"Transformation rules from AADL to improved colored GSPN for integrated modular avionics","authors":"Rongbin Han, Shihai Wang","doi":"10.1109/ICRMS.2016.8050088","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMS.2016.8050088","url":null,"abstract":"Although integrated modular avionics (IMA) provides many advantages such as the reduced weight and higher efficiency for system operations, safety problems with correlations of system states come up due to its resource sharing mechanism. Correlations of system states contribute to the fault propagation in IMA systems. In other words, when a shared resource goes into an error state, components which have access to that resource may work in a failed state. Additionally, this process is dynamic during the system running. Model-based method is an adequate approach to analyzing system safety dynamically with correlations of system states. Architecture Analysis and Design Language (AADL) has advantage to model for embedded systems. However, it is quite limited to employ AADL dynamically for analyzing system safety. This paper seeks to translate the AADL models into improved colored GSPN models, which have advantage to simulate with system run-time properties such as time and event occurrence probabilities as well as other properties of system components. Furthermore, the paper focuses on this transformation process without any loss of key modeling elements including those properties mentioned above. Based on this work, subsequent analysis can be conducted. A case study is provided for indicating the application of these transformation rules.","PeriodicalId":347031,"journal":{"name":"2016 11th International Conference on Reliability, Maintainability and Safety (ICRMS)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131274585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Analysis of MTBF evaluation methods for small sample sizes 小样本MTBF评价方法分析
Hongsheng Pan, Anwei Sheng, Zhuojian Wang, Xinmin Han
The accurate estimation of Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) may be necessary under small sample size conditions and can be difficult. This article proposes combinations of two methods to calculate the cumulative probability using hierarchical Bayesian estimation and the mean rank order method, and two approaches to estimate parameters of the Weibull distribution using the ε-support vector regression (ε-SVR) and least square method. The relative error of these methods against a simulation are used to measure the accuracy of the parameter estimation where, according to the definition of MTBF, the expectation of the Weibull distribution is taken as the estimated value of MTBF. The article suggests approaches for further research in the reliability of aviation equipment.
在小样本条件下,准确估计平均故障间隔时间(MTBF)可能是必要的,并且可能是困难的。本文提出将层次贝叶斯估计和平均秩次法两种累积概率计算方法相结合,将ε-支持向量回归(ε-SVR)和最小二乘法两种威布尔分布参数估计方法相结合。用这些方法与仿真的相对误差来衡量参数估计的精度,其中根据MTBF的定义,取威布尔分布的期望作为MTBF的估定值。提出了进一步研究航空设备可靠性的途径。
{"title":"Analysis of MTBF evaluation methods for small sample sizes","authors":"Hongsheng Pan, Anwei Sheng, Zhuojian Wang, Xinmin Han","doi":"10.1109/ICRMS.2016.8050042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMS.2016.8050042","url":null,"abstract":"The accurate estimation of Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) may be necessary under small sample size conditions and can be difficult. This article proposes combinations of two methods to calculate the cumulative probability using hierarchical Bayesian estimation and the mean rank order method, and two approaches to estimate parameters of the Weibull distribution using the ε-support vector regression (ε-SVR) and least square method. The relative error of these methods against a simulation are used to measure the accuracy of the parameter estimation where, according to the definition of MTBF, the expectation of the Weibull distribution is taken as the estimated value of MTBF. The article suggests approaches for further research in the reliability of aviation equipment.","PeriodicalId":347031,"journal":{"name":"2016 11th International Conference on Reliability, Maintainability and Safety (ICRMS)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122069717","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
A new NHPP model for modeling failure process with S-shaped mean cumulative function 基于s型平均累积函数的失效过程NHPP模型
R. Jiang
The mean cumulative function (MCF) characterizes the failure behavior of a repairable system. Typical model for modeling failure process is the power-law model. It is only applicable for the situations where the empirical MCF is concave or convex. In practical applications, the empirical MCF can be S-shaped. The intensity function associated with an S-shaped MCF is unimodal. The unimodal failure intensity results from interaction between aging and maintenance improvement. In the literature, few models are available for representing the failure process with unimodal failure intensity. In this paper, we present such a model. The model has three parameters and its expression is relatively simple. A regression method is developed to help determine whether the model is appropriate for modeling a given set of data and obtain the initial estimates of the model parameters. The maximum likelihood method is used to obtain the final parameter estimates. Two real-world examples are included to illustrate the appropriateness and usefulness of the proposed model and the parameter estimation method.
平均累积函数(MCF)描述了可修系统的失效行为。典型的失效过程模型是幂律模型。它只适用于经验MCF为凹或凸的情况。在实际应用中,经验MCF可以是s形的。与s形MCF相关的强度函数是单峰的。单峰失效强度是老化和维修改进共同作用的结果。在文献中,很少有模型可以用来表示具有单峰破坏强度的破坏过程。在本文中,我们提出了这样一个模型。该模型有三个参数,其表达式相对简单。开发了一种回归方法,以帮助确定模型是否适合对给定数据集进行建模,并获得模型参数的初始估计。采用极大似然法得到最终的参数估计。通过两个实际例子来说明所提出的模型和参数估计方法的适用性和有效性。
{"title":"A new NHPP model for modeling failure process with S-shaped mean cumulative function","authors":"R. Jiang","doi":"10.1109/ICRMS.2016.8050152","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMS.2016.8050152","url":null,"abstract":"The mean cumulative function (MCF) characterizes the failure behavior of a repairable system. Typical model for modeling failure process is the power-law model. It is only applicable for the situations where the empirical MCF is concave or convex. In practical applications, the empirical MCF can be S-shaped. The intensity function associated with an S-shaped MCF is unimodal. The unimodal failure intensity results from interaction between aging and maintenance improvement. In the literature, few models are available for representing the failure process with unimodal failure intensity. In this paper, we present such a model. The model has three parameters and its expression is relatively simple. A regression method is developed to help determine whether the model is appropriate for modeling a given set of data and obtain the initial estimates of the model parameters. The maximum likelihood method is used to obtain the final parameter estimates. Two real-world examples are included to illustrate the appropriateness and usefulness of the proposed model and the parameter estimation method.","PeriodicalId":347031,"journal":{"name":"2016 11th International Conference on Reliability, Maintainability and Safety (ICRMS)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124014818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Regional importance analysis under multiple failure modes 多失效模式下的区域重要性分析
Baoyu Li, Lei Cheng, Leigang Zhang, Yao Wang, Xiongqing Yu
For structural system with multiple failure modes extensively present in engineering practice, two regional mode importance measures are proposed on the basis of the existing mode importance measures, i.e., the regional mode importance measure based on failure probability and the regional mode importance measure based on sample mean of output response. Compared with the existing global mode importance measures, the proposed regional importance measures can not only provide the inter-mode importance information, but also reflect the effects of different regions of input variables on the importance of a single mode or a group of modes, thus providing useful information to improve and optimize the reliability model. Numerical and engineering examples are used to demonstrate the feasibility and rationality of the proposed indices.
针对工程实践中广泛存在的多种失效模式的结构体系,在现有模态重要性测度的基础上,提出了基于失效概率的区域模态重要性测度和基于输出响应样本均值的区域模态重要性测度。与现有的全局模态重要度测度相比,所提出的区域重要度测度不仅能提供模态间的重要度信息,还能反映输入变量的不同区域对单个模态或一组模态重要度的影响,从而为可靠性模型的改进和优化提供有用的信息。通过数值算例和工程算例验证了所提指标的可行性和合理性。
{"title":"Regional importance analysis under multiple failure modes","authors":"Baoyu Li, Lei Cheng, Leigang Zhang, Yao Wang, Xiongqing Yu","doi":"10.1109/ICRMS.2016.8050053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMS.2016.8050053","url":null,"abstract":"For structural system with multiple failure modes extensively present in engineering practice, two regional mode importance measures are proposed on the basis of the existing mode importance measures, i.e., the regional mode importance measure based on failure probability and the regional mode importance measure based on sample mean of output response. Compared with the existing global mode importance measures, the proposed regional importance measures can not only provide the inter-mode importance information, but also reflect the effects of different regions of input variables on the importance of a single mode or a group of modes, thus providing useful information to improve and optimize the reliability model. Numerical and engineering examples are used to demonstrate the feasibility and rationality of the proposed indices.","PeriodicalId":347031,"journal":{"name":"2016 11th International Conference on Reliability, Maintainability and Safety (ICRMS)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115450292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
2016 11th International Conference on Reliability, Maintainability and Safety (ICRMS)
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