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Smart energy demand for the sustainable development of energy, water and environment systems 智能能源需求能源、水和环境系统的可持续发展
Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2022-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.segy.2022.100091
Vladimir Z. Gjorgievski, Natasa Markovska, Brian Vad Mathiesen, Neven Duić

Grounded in the idea of meeting the needs of generations across time, sustainable development bears a close relationship to the way in which humanity consumes energy. Nevertheless, the historic notion that energy demand growth reflects improved living standards, economic development and prosperity are challenged when sustainability constraints and the impact on climate change are considered. As a result, a growing body of scientific research is exploring how energy demand can contribute to the energy transition instead of placing it in peril, by means of greater efficiency, digitalization, connectivity and a holistic approach to planning and management. Over the years, the Conference on Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems (SDEWES) has acted as a forum for scientific discourse in this field, shedding light on nuanced discussions and challenging siloed thinking. This special issue contains a selection of four papers that are focused on smart energy demand, demand response and decarbonization, presented at the 2021 SDEWES Conference (16th SDEWES Conference held in Dubrovnik, Croatia).

可持续发展以满足世世代代的需要为基础,与人类消耗能源的方式有着密切的关系。然而,当考虑到可持续性约束和对气候变化的影响时,能源需求增长反映生活水平提高、经济发展和繁荣的历史观念受到了挑战。因此,越来越多的科学研究正在探索能源需求如何通过提高效率、数字化、互联互通和整体规划和管理方法,促进能源转型,而不是使其处于危险之中。多年来,能源、水和环境系统可持续发展会议(SDEWES)一直是该领域科学论述的论坛,揭示了细微的讨论,挑战了孤立的思维。本期特刊精选了四篇专注于智能能源需求、需求响应和脱碳的论文,这些论文在2021年SDEWES会议(第16届SDEWES会议在克罗地亚杜布罗夫尼克举行)上发表。
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引用次数: 0
Assessment of hydrogen-based long term electrical energy storage in residential energy systems 住宅能源系统中氢基长期电能储存的评估
Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2022-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.segy.2022.100088
Pietro Lubello, Mattia Pasqui, Alessandro Mati, Carlo Carcasci

Among the numerous envisioned applications for hydrogen in the decarbonisation of the energy system, seasonal energy storage is usually regarded as one of the most likely options. Although long-term energy storage is usually considered at grid-scale level, given the increasing diffusion of distributed energy systems and the expected cost reduction in hydrogen related components, some companies are starting to offer residential systems, with PV modules and batteries, that rely on hydrogen for seasonal storage of electrical energy. Such hydrogen storage systems are generally composed by water electrolysers, hydrogen storage vessels and fuel cells.

The aim of this work is to investigate such systems and their possible applications for different geographical conditions in Italy. On-grid and off-grid systems are considered and compared to systems without hydrogen, in terms of self-consumption ratio, size of components and economic investment. Each different option has been assessed from a techno-economic point of view via MESS (Multi Energy Systems Simulator), an analytical programming tool for the analysis of local energy systems.

Results have identified the optimal sizing of the system's components and have shown how such systems are not, in general, economically competitive for a single dwelling, although they can in some cases ensure energy independence.

在氢在能源系统脱碳中的众多设想应用中,季节性储能通常被认为是最有可能的选择之一。尽管长期能源储存通常是在电网规模上考虑的,但鉴于分布式能源系统的日益普及和氢相关组件的预期成本降低,一些公司开始提供住宅系统,包括光伏模块和电池,这些系统依赖氢来进行季节性的电能储存。这种储氢系统一般由水电解槽、储氢容器和燃料电池组成。这项工作的目的是调查这些系统及其在意大利不同地理条件下的可能应用。考虑并网和离网系统,并将其与无氢系统在自耗比、组件大小和经济投资方面进行比较。每一种不同的选择都从技术经济角度通过MESS(多能源系统模拟器)进行了评估,这是一种用于分析当地能源系统的分析编程工具。结果确定了系统组件的最佳尺寸,并显示了这些系统如何在一般情况下对单个住宅没有经济竞争力,尽管它们在某些情况下可以确保能源独立。
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引用次数: 8
100% renewable industrial decarbonization: Optimal integration of solar heat and photovoltaics 100%可再生工业脱碳:太阳能热能和光伏发电的最佳整合
Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2022-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.segy.2022.100087
Mohammad Sameti, Eoin Syron

Decarbonizing industrial high-temperature (above 500 °C) heat demand is considered as one of the most challenging areas for decarbonization of energy due to (1) their strive for high-grade heat input, and (2) CO2 emission as the by-product. Heat and electricity from solar sources (medium to high-temperature solar thermal and photovoltaics) are two potential solutions for reducing CO2 emission in the industrial heating sector. This study investigates the potential of solar energy in the form of heat and/or electricity to make a significant contribution to reduce CO2 emissions from industrial heating requirements. Analysis is performed to determine the optimal configuration of both systems along with a hybrid system in terms of both cost and emissions reductions which are compared with a natural gas-only (conventional) system. Annual hourly solar irradiation data for two locations with different climatic conditions (mild and hot climates) was generated and employed as the input to the optimization model to provide a high-resolution (hourly-based) comparison. The results showed that for the hot climate, the optimized compact parabolic trough system reduced CO2 emissions by 45% compared to the base gas-only system with an increase in 75% for cost. A 45% reduction in emissions for the location with mild weather condition resulted accompanied with an 88% increase for costs. The photovoltaic solution resulted in higher cost than that of compact parabolic trough solution in the same level of emission due to the lower conversion efficiencies of the photovoltaic cells. Beside the environmental aspects, less dependance to gas transmission network and relying on local energy sources as well as less operation/maintenance costs are the benefits of the proposed configurations.

工业高温(500°C以上)热需求脱碳被认为是能源脱碳最具挑战性的领域之一,因为(1)他们努力实现高品位的热量输入,(2)二氧化碳排放作为副产品。来自太阳能的热能和电力(中高温太阳能热能和光伏)是减少工业供热部门二氧化碳排放的两种潜在解决方案。这项研究调查了太阳能以热能和/或电能的形式为减少工业供暖需求产生的二氧化碳排放作出重大贡献的潜力。与纯天然气(传统)系统相比,进行分析以确定两种系统以及混合系统在成本和减排方面的最佳配置。生成两个不同气候条件(温和气候和炎热气候)地点的年每小时太阳辐照数据,并将其作为优化模型的输入,以提供高分辨率(以小时为基础)的比较。结果表明,在炎热的气候条件下,优化后的紧凑型抛物线槽系统与仅使用基础气体的系统相比,二氧化碳排放量减少了45%,成本增加了75%。在气候温和的地区,排放量减少了45%,同时成本增加了88%。由于光伏电池的转换效率较低,在相同的发射水平下,光伏解决方案的成本高于紧凑型抛物槽解决方案。除了环境方面,对天然气输送网络的依赖程度较低,对当地能源的依赖程度较低,运营/维护成本也较低。
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引用次数: 2
Decentralised multi-grid coupling for energy supply of a hybrid bus depot using mixed-integer linear programming 基于混合整数线性规划的混合车辆段能量供应分散多网耦合
Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2022-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.segy.2022.100090
Maximilian Roth, Georg Franke, Stephan Rinderknecht

The present work refers to two current problems in the context of achieving Greenhouse gas (GHG) neutrality: first the curtailment of renewable, volatile power generation units and secondly the high share of the mobility domain in total GHG-emissions. Both problems can be countered by a decentralised, smart energy system that supplies electricity, gas and heat to a hybrid public transport bus fleet and is simultaneously coupled to the public gas grid, public electricity grid and the district heating grid (Multi-Grid-Coupling). The enabling energy conversion unit is a reversible solid oxide cell (rSOC), which is operated in combined heat and power (CHP) mode or in power-to-gas (P2G) mode. P2G is primarily a solution approach for the first-mentioned problem and can thus successively lead to the replacement of fossil energy sources. Furthermore, by integrating industrial waste gases – as a necessary CO2 source for the P2G process – an additional benefit is gained from the CO2 that is emitted anyhow. The hybrid bus fleet constitutes an ecological alternative concept in public transport and therefore addresses the second-mentioned problem. The system, developed under the current state of the art technologies and the current ecological and economic conditions for Europe and Germany, can be operated profitably from the perspective of the system operator. This applies to the economically and ecologically optimised operating schedule of the controllable system elements such as the electrical, thermal and compressed gas storages, rSOC, compressor and the energy exchange with the public grids. To derive the optimal operating schedule of the cross-sectoral system, a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model is implemented and simulated under the current legal situation.

目前的工作涉及实现温室气体(GHG)中性背景下的两个当前问题:首先是可再生能源的削减,挥发性发电机组,其次是移动领域在温室气体排放总量中的高份额。这两个问题都可以通过一个分散的智能能源系统来解决,该系统为混合动力公共交通车队提供电力、天然气和热量,同时与公共燃气网、公共电网和区域供热网(多网耦合)相结合。使能的能量转换单元是一个可逆的固体氧化物电池(rSOC),它以热电联产(CHP)模式或电到气(P2G)模式运行。P2G主要是第一个问题的解决途径,因此可以依次导致化石能源的替代。此外,通过整合工业废气(作为P2G工艺的必要二氧化碳源),无论如何都可以从排放的二氧化碳中获得额外的好处。混合动力公交车队构成了公共交通的生态替代概念,因此解决了第二个问题。该系统是在欧洲和德国目前的先进技术和生态经济条件下开发的,从系统运营商的角度来看,它是可以盈利的。这适用于经济和生态优化的可控系统元件的运行计划,如电气,热和压缩气体存储,rSOC,压缩机和与公共电网的能源交换。为了推导出跨部门系统的最优运行计划,在现行法律条件下,实现了混合整数线性规划(MILP)模型并进行了仿真。
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引用次数: 2
Smart energy systems approach to zero emissions long-range sailing vessels 智能能源系统接近零排放远程帆船
Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2022-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.segy.2022.100086
Andrew Cass , Jens Ring Nielson

Transportation is undergoing an electric revolution and the marine sector is missing many of the advances made in other industries. The critical roadblock is the virtual actor of safety. To date, there is no viable replacement for the range, comfort, and safety provided by a tank of diesel.

The question this research asks is could fully integrating transport, storage, and eliminating critical excess energy within the closed loop of the sailing vessel increase comfort, safety, range, and speed? This paper leverages the smart energy systems approach and is based on existing technology, including the propeller. However, it applies a new approach to driveline design and operation as a basis to model energy performance.

In our model, wind is the primary energy source converted into electric energy via hydro-generation; the point of departure from existing systems is the ability to fully manage critical excess energy in an integrated smart energy system. Energy management is carried out by a new performance algorithm called Charge Made Good (CMG), that allows the vessel to predict the battery state at the journey’s end and maintain this prediction during periods of intermittent energy production from forecast variance. The model shows that fossil fuels used for safety and range in direct-drive and electric-hybrid systems can be eliminated, with an improved level of amenity aboard and an improved safety factor using the smart energy systems approach. It is the first academic research to address the safety and comfort of zero-emissions recreational craft rather than technical but unusable/uneconomic solutions.

交通运输正在经历一场电力革命,而海洋领域却缺少其他行业取得的许多进步。关键的路障是安全的虚拟角色。到目前为止,还没有可行的替代油箱柴油提供的范围,舒适性和安全性。这项研究提出的问题是,能否将运输、储存和消除帆船闭环中的临界多余能量完全整合在一起,从而提高舒适性、安全性、航程和速度?本文利用智能能源系统方法,并基于现有技术,包括螺旋桨。然而,它将一种新的方法应用于传动系统的设计和操作,作为建模能源性能的基础。在我们的模型中,风能是通过水力发电转化为电能的主要能源;与现有系统的不同之处在于,它能够在集成的智能能源系统中充分管理关键的过剩能源。能源管理由一种名为“充电有效”(Charge Made Good, CMG)的新型性能算法进行,该算法允许船舶在旅程结束时预测电池状态,并根据预测方差在间歇性能源生产期间保持这一预测。该模型表明,在直接驱动和电动混合动力系统中,用于安全性和续航里程的化石燃料可以被淘汰,使用智能能源系统方法可以提高舒适性水平,提高安全系数。这是第一个针对零排放休闲船的安全性和舒适性的学术研究,而不是技术上但不可用/不经济的解决方案。
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引用次数: 1
Investigating alternative power supply solutions under long term uncertainty for offgrid-offshore fish farm: The case of Hinnøya island, Norway 研究离岸离网养鱼场在长期不确定性下的替代电力供应解决方案:挪威Hinnøya岛的案例
Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2022-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.segy.2022.100078
Dejene Assefa Hagos, Yongping Liu, Lizhen Huang

The aim of this paper is to explore potential least-cost decarbonisation solutions for an off-grid and offshore fish farm power supply system under long term uncertainty. The Hinnøya island in Norway is used as a use case. Three distinctive off-grid and grid-based alternative power supply solutions were proposed and studied as a replacement to the existing diesel power solution in a three-stage stochastic model and under two critical long-term uncertainties: (1) access to strong grid and (2) storage battery cost. The TIMES modelling framework is applied. The stochastic model results reveal that grid integrated storage is an optimal near-term investment for a storage battery cost of 295 €/kWh and less by 2025. In scenarios with no access to strong grid, grid integrated storage continues to be a least-cost solution in the long-term as well, whereas in those scenarios with strong grid access, new investment in storage is not required after 2030. Contrary to the stochastic model runs, the equivalent deterministic model runs showed that a hybrid wind and diesel solution is an optimal near-term investment. From 2030, however, a similar technology pattern in both stochastic and deterministic model runs are observed. Nevertheless, the results are very sensitive to the assumed storage battery costs. Higher storage costs (as high as 704 €/kWh by 2025) would make the hybrid wind and diesel solution an optimal solution instead of the grid integrated storage solution in near-term investment in both stochastic and deterministic model runs.

本文的目的是探索在长期不确定的情况下,离网和海上养鱼场电力供应系统的潜在低成本脱碳解决方案。挪威的Hinnøya岛是一个用例。在三阶段随机模型和两个关键的长期不确定性条件下,提出并研究了三种不同的离网和基于电网的替代供电方案,作为现有柴油发电方案的替代方案:(1)接入强电网和(2)蓄电池成本。采用TIMES建模框架。随机模型结果显示,到2025年,电网集成储能是电池成本在295欧元/千瓦时及以下的短期最佳投资。在没有接入强电网的情况下,从长远来看,电网集成存储仍然是成本最低的解决方案,而在具有强电网接入的情况下,2030年后不需要对存储进行新的投资。与随机模型运行相反,等效确定性模型运行表明,风能和柴油混合解决方案是最优的近期投资。然而,从2030年开始,在随机和确定性模型运行中观察到类似的技术模式。然而,结果对假定的蓄电池成本非常敏感。更高的存储成本(到2025年将高达704欧元/千瓦时)将使风能和柴油混合解决方案成为短期投资的最佳解决方案,而不是电网集成存储解决方案,无论是随机还是确定性模型运行。
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引用次数: 4
Smart knowledge management driving green transformation: A comparative case study 智能知识管理推动绿色转型:比较案例研究
Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2022-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.segy.2022.100085
József Magyari , Máté Zavarkó , Zoltán Csedő

Large energy companies and energy startups are increasingly focusing their resources to build new businesses concerning smart energy systems (SES). The development and integration of related innovative technologies for green transformation with traditional business models are often hampered, however, by the challenge of parallel management of exploitation of current business areas, and the exploration of new business areas with breakthrough innovation. While knowledge management could be key in this balancing strategy and shifting the organization to a more sustainable future, little is known about the challenges in the context of the energy sector. Applying a comparative case study method at a large energy company and a small energy startup, path dependency is reflected in KMS design in both cases, which could result in a slower shift to new technologies in case of the incumbent, and slower exploitation of the technological innovation in case of the startup. If a partnership is not an option for simulating structural ambidexterity, energy companies could speed up green transformation individually with smart knowledge management systems (SKMS) that support the development of contextual ambidexterity and SES.

大型能源公司和能源创业公司越来越多地将资源集中在智能能源系统(SES)相关的新业务上。然而,绿色转型的相关创新技术与传统商业模式的开发和融合往往受到现有业务领域开发的并行管理和突破性创新的新业务领域探索的挑战。虽然知识管理可能是这种平衡战略的关键,并将组织转变为更可持续的未来,但人们对能源部门面临的挑战知之甚少。通过对一家大型能源公司和一家小型能源初创公司的比较案例研究,两种情况下,路径依赖都反映在KMS设计中,这可能导致既有企业向新技术的转变速度较慢,而初创企业对技术创新的利用速度较慢。如果合作伙伴关系不是模拟结构双灵巧性的一个选择,能源公司可以通过智能知识管理系统(SKMS)单独加速绿色转型,支持上下文双灵巧性和SES的发展。
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引用次数: 7
A statistical model to forecast and simulate energy demand in the long-run 预测和模拟长期能源需求的统计模型
Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2022-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.segy.2022.100084
Ignacio Mauleón

This research aims to design a model to forecast and simulate aggregated world energy demand at distant horizons in time. This is done by estimating statistically a simplified interrelated model for the three variables considered, total primary Energy, world population and GDP. The approach intends to offer a complementary perspective to current practice, based on simulating energy demand conditional on GDP and population. The model is based on long historical series spanning the years (1900;2017) available from renowned researchers and institutions in their respective fields. The estimated models allow a forecast of future energy demand and a risk/sensitivity analysis. Alternative solutions and simulation methods are carried out to assess the robustness of the results derived. These forecasts are compared to the results of key relevant roadmaps put forward in the literature - in the range (330;408) EJ/yr for final energy consumption -, the general conclusion being that the aforementioned roadmaps assume sizeable efficiency savings, relying mainly on electrification and renewable energies deployment, that depart significantly from historical trends embodied in the model estimated - 900 EJ/yr on average, and 600 EJ/yr under favourable assumptions. These results jeopardise the unbounded GDP-growth paradigm, suggesting a replacement by alternative welfare measures as suggested by the UN human development index, the prosperity approach, and related standards.

本研究旨在设计一个模型来预测和模拟在遥远的地平线上的世界总能源需求。这是通过统计估计所考虑的三个变量,即总初级能源、世界人口和国内生产总值的简化相互关联模型来完成的。该方法旨在基于模拟以GDP和人口为条件的能源需求,为当前实践提供一个补充视角。该模型基于从各自领域的知名研究人员和机构获得的跨越多年(1900年至2017年)的长期历史序列。估计模型允许对未来能源需求进行预测和风险/敏感性分析。采用替代解决方案和仿真方法来评估所得结果的鲁棒性。这些预测与文献中提出的关键相关路线图的结果进行了比较——最终能源消耗范围为(330;408)EJ/年——总的结论是,上述路线图假设了相当大的效率节约,主要依赖于电气化和可再生能源的部署,这与模型估计中体现的历史趋势有很大不同——平均900 EJ/年,在有利的假设下为600 EJ/年。这些结果危及了无限制的gdp增长范式,建议用联合国人类发展指数、繁荣方法和相关标准所建议的替代福利措施来替代。
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引用次数: 6
Spatial analyses of smart energy system implementation through system dynamics and GIS modelling. Wind power case study in Latvia 通过系统动力学和GIS建模实现智能能源系统的空间分析。拉脱维亚风力发电案例研究
Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2022-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.segy.2022.100081
Ieva Pakere, Marika Kacare, Armands Grāvelsiņš, Ritvars Freimanis, Andra Blumberga

Major concern in utilising renewable energy sources, such as solar or wind, is their intermittent nature. Therefore, whether they can be reliable energy sources to provide uninterrupted energy demand when reaching a high share of renewable energy in the system depends on the whole energy supply network. Higher flexibility of RES-based systems can be reached through the development of smart energy concepts.

The system dynamics model coupled with a geographical information system platform has been used to analyse space and time dimensions of RES potential using geo-referenced information. This approach allows analysing the whole energy system by determining the best-suited development scenario for each region separately, based on their resource, economic, and technological capabilities. Furthermore, the system dynamics model is complemented with different policies to evaluate their impact on renewable and local energy resource development and economic potential. The results show that the potential for large-scale onshore wind farm capacities with suitable land conditions could be around 5.5 GW, but the forecasted necessary wind power capacity to reach climate neutrality in 2050 is 1.55 GW. Therefore, onshore wind turbines should be promoted to move toward a smart and renewable power system in Latvia.

利用可再生能源(如太阳能或风能)的主要问题是它们的间歇性。因此,当可再生能源在系统中所占比例达到较高时,它们能否成为可靠的能源,提供不间断的能源需求,取决于整个能源供应网络。通过智能能源概念的发展,基于res的系统可以达到更高的灵活性。利用系统动力学模型与地理信息系统平台相结合,利用地理参考信息分析了可再生能源潜力的时空维度。这种方法可以根据每个区域的资源、经济和技术能力,分别确定最适合的发展方案,从而分析整个能源系统。此外,系统动力学模型与不同的政策相辅相成,以评估其对可再生能源和当地能源发展和经济潜力的影响。结果表明,在合适的土地条件下,大型陆上风电场的潜力可能在5.5吉瓦左右,但预计到2050年达到气候中和所需的风电容量为1.55吉瓦。因此,拉脱维亚应该推动陆上风力涡轮机向智能和可再生能源系统发展。
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引用次数: 7
Integration of vertical solar power plants into a future German energy system 将垂直太阳能发电厂整合到未来的德国能源系统中
Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2022-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.segy.2022.100083
Sophia Reker , Jens Schneider , Christoph Gerhards

In Germany's future energy system wind and solar power directly cover all electricity demand for more than half of the year. Typical inclined south facing PV modules produce a strong peak around noon on sunny days. In east-west facing vertical PV modules energy yield peaks are shifted towards morning and afternoon hours. Such systems can be applied in agri photovoltaic power plants with similar energy yield per installed capacity to conventional photovoltaic systems. While installed power per area is by a factor 4 to 5 smaller, dual land use with agriculture allows for a technical potential in the terawatt hours per year range, which is comparable to half of entire German primary energy demand. In a simulation model based on the programme EnergyPLAN for Germany 2030 with 80% CO2 reduction related to 1990 the effect of different PV power plant orientations is investigated. In the model an optimum share of around 80% vertical PV systems is found without any electricity storages and 70% with electricity storage possibilities. It could be shown that vertical PV systems enable lower storage capacities or lower utilization of gas power plants. Without any storage options a reduction of the overall carbon dioxide emissions by up to 10.2 Mt/a is possible.

在德国未来的能源系统中,风能和太阳能可以直接满足半年以上的电力需求。典型的向南倾斜的光伏组件在晴天中午左右产生强烈的峰值。在面向东西的垂直光伏模块中,发电量峰值转移到上午和下午。这种系统可以应用于农业光伏发电厂,其每装机容量的发电量与传统光伏系统相似。虽然单位面积的装机功率要小4到5倍,但土地与农业的双重利用允许每年太瓦时的技术潜力,这相当于整个德国一次能源需求的一半。在一个基于EnergyPLAN计划的模拟模型中,德国2030年的二氧化碳排放量比1990年减少了80%,研究了不同光伏电站方向的影响。在该模型中,垂直光伏系统的最佳份额约为80%,没有任何电力存储,70%有电力存储的可能性。可以证明,垂直光伏系统可以降低存储容量或降低天然气发电厂的利用率。如果没有任何存储选项,则可能减少高达1020万吨/年的总二氧化碳排放量。
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引用次数: 11
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