Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2022-2-263-275
I. Safranchuk
A plethora of opinions expressed in the U.S. political and expert circles on the intervention in Afghanistan did not produce an answer to the question about the future of the American operation. Amidst this uncertainty, the book by Barnett Rubin and his colleagues revisits some fundamental issues regarding the U.S. war in Afghanistan. The authors’ main idea is that the isolation of Afghanistan impedes its development because the country only partially participates in international division of labor, while lack of development fuels multiple internal contradictions. As a result, the Afghan government lacks the income to provide basic public goods or sustain order. It was argued that the solution is to reintegrate Afghanistan into world economy through development of export industries and to reinforce the central government. In practice, all attempts to strengthen the Afghan government only led to its growing reliance on the United States. However, after the fall of the pro-American regime, the Taliban started to implement the program of reinforcing the central government in Afghanistan, albeit from different ideological positions. The historical paradox will be if the Taliban succeed in this effort where the pro-American regime failed.
{"title":"Time capsule: revisiting American strategies on Afghanistan after theу failed","authors":"I. Safranchuk","doi":"10.20542/2307-1494-2022-2-263-275","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2022-2-263-275","url":null,"abstract":"A plethora of opinions expressed in the U.S. political and expert circles on the intervention in Afghanistan did not produce an answer to the question about the future of the American operation. Amidst this uncertainty, the book by Barnett Rubin and his colleagues revisits some fundamental issues regarding the U.S. war in Afghanistan. The authors’ main idea is that the isolation of Afghanistan impedes its development because the country only partially participates in international division of labor, while lack of development fuels multiple internal contradictions. As a result, the Afghan government lacks the income to provide basic public goods or sustain order. It was argued that the solution is to reintegrate Afghanistan into world economy through development of export industries and to reinforce the central government. In practice, all attempts to strengthen the Afghan government only led to its growing reliance on the United States. However, after the fall of the pro-American regime, the Taliban started to implement the program of reinforcing the central government in Afghanistan, albeit from different ideological positions. The historical paradox will be if the Taliban succeed in this effort where the pro-American regime failed.","PeriodicalId":34887,"journal":{"name":"Puti k miru i bezopasnosti","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67687487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2021-1-120-132
A. Malashenko
The article analyses Middle Eastern conflicts in the early 2020s. The main focus is on the situation in Syria, Libya, and Yemen, three Middle Eastern conflicts that are progressing, with no solution in sight. These conflicts motivated by social, economic and political reasons became a progression of those protests that have started in 2011 and have been called “The Arab Spring”. These “revolutions” have been promoted by Islamist movements and groups whose activity became one of key factors of perpetual tensions in the region. So far, attempts by conflict parties to find consensual solutions have remained rather unsuccessful. Positive resolution of actual and potential conflicts in the Greater Middle East to a significant extent still depends on external regional and non-regional actors, such as Russia, Turkey, Iran, and the United States. However, each actor involved in these conflicts and in conflict management pursues its own goals. These actors try to retain their positions and influence in these Middle Eastern countries and in the region as a whole. According to the forecast made in the article, more conflicts in the region may be foreseen (in Iraq, the Persian Gulf states etc.) that could form the next wave of the “Arab Spring”.
{"title":"Conflicts in the Middle East: prospects for escalation in the context of general regional instability in the 2020s","authors":"A. Malashenko","doi":"10.20542/2307-1494-2021-1-120-132","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2021-1-120-132","url":null,"abstract":"The article analyses Middle Eastern conflicts in the early 2020s. The main focus is on the situation in Syria, Libya, and Yemen, three Middle Eastern conflicts that are progressing, with no solution in sight. These conflicts motivated by social, economic and political reasons became a progression of those protests that have started in 2011 and have been called “The Arab Spring”. These “revolutions” have been promoted by Islamist movements and groups whose activity became one of key factors of perpetual tensions in the region. So far, attempts by conflict parties to find consensual solutions have remained rather unsuccessful. Positive resolution of actual and potential conflicts in the Greater Middle East to a significant extent still depends on external regional and non-regional actors, such as Russia, Turkey, Iran, and the United States. However, each actor involved in these conflicts and in conflict management pursues its own goals. These actors try to retain their positions and influence in these Middle Eastern countries and in the region as a whole. According to the forecast made in the article, more conflicts in the region may be foreseen (in Iraq, the Persian Gulf states etc.) that could form the next wave of the “Arab Spring”.","PeriodicalId":34887,"journal":{"name":"Puti k miru i bezopasnosti","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67686410","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2021-1-89-98
K. Efremova
The article analyzes the current political situation in Myanmar where the military came back to power in February 2021. The legality of introducing the state of emergency by the military and of transferring the state power to the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services Senior General Min Aung Hlaing is addressed. The situation in Myanmar is also compared with the neighbouring Thailand where military takeovers have become a political routine. The difference between Myanmar’s and Thailand’s coups and their perceptions by the international community is highlighted. The “Daw Aung San Suu Kyi factor” and the political-information campaign against Myanmar in global mass media are analyzed. Special attention is paid to the U.S. policy towards Myanmar as a country that is strategically located at the coast of the Bay of Bengal. The role of U.S.-based charity funds and social networks in organizing mass protests in Myanmar, in reaction to the state of emergency declared by the military, is explored. The Civil Disobedience Movement’s actions, goals and practical results are discussed. Finally, the article outlines scenarios of future developments and focuses on the key role of Myanmar’s military (the Tatmadaw) in peaceful solution of the post-election political crisis in Myanmar.
{"title":"Post-election crisis in Myanmar","authors":"K. Efremova","doi":"10.20542/2307-1494-2021-1-89-98","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2021-1-89-98","url":null,"abstract":"The article analyzes the current political situation in Myanmar where the military came back to power in February 2021. The legality of introducing the state of emergency by the military and of transferring the state power to the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services Senior General Min Aung Hlaing is addressed. The situation in Myanmar is also compared with the neighbouring Thailand where military takeovers have become a political routine. The difference between Myanmar’s and Thailand’s coups and their perceptions by the international community is highlighted. The “Daw Aung San Suu Kyi factor” and the political-information campaign against Myanmar in global mass media are analyzed. Special attention is paid to the U.S. policy towards Myanmar as a country that is strategically located at the coast of the Bay of Bengal. The role of U.S.-based charity funds and social networks in organizing mass protests in Myanmar, in reaction to the state of emergency declared by the military, is explored. The Civil Disobedience Movement’s actions, goals and practical results are discussed. Finally, the article outlines scenarios of future developments and focuses on the key role of Myanmar’s military (the Tatmadaw) in peaceful solution of the post-election political crisis in Myanmar.","PeriodicalId":34887,"journal":{"name":"Puti k miru i bezopasnosti","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67686555","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2021-1-99-119
M. Nessar
The article analyzes the Afghan peace process, including the roles of internal and external players. It examines the impact of the national reconciliation policy on the domestic political process in Afghanistan and on the military and political situation in the country. The national program aimed at settling the armed conflict is interpreted as a response to changes in the U.S. policy for Afghanistan, including preparations for the withdrawal of the U.S. troops. The author also pays attention to the geopolitical dimension of the problem and to possible scenarios for the evolution of the peace process.
{"title":"The Afghan marathon: why no one is in a rush at the Doha talks","authors":"M. Nessar","doi":"10.20542/2307-1494-2021-1-99-119","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2021-1-99-119","url":null,"abstract":"The article analyzes the Afghan peace process, including the roles of internal and external players. It examines the impact of the national reconciliation policy on the domestic political process in Afghanistan and on the military and political situation in the country. The national program aimed at settling the armed conflict is interpreted as a response to changes in the U.S. policy for Afghanistan, including preparations for the withdrawal of the U.S. troops. The author also pays attention to the geopolitical dimension of the problem and to possible scenarios for the evolution of the peace process.","PeriodicalId":34887,"journal":{"name":"Puti k miru i bezopasnosti","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67686567","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2021-1-11-28
Y. Nikitina, K. Taran
The digital age has brought about new online mediation practices. At first, these kinds of practices were introduced to business mediation and out-of-court dispute resolution, while such phenomena as Twitter diplomacy emerged in the domain of diplomacy. During the pandemic, online communication has also become the mainstream in the spheres of negotiations and mediation. Despite a number of problems that the online format does not allow to overcome (for example, lack of personal contact), interaction with the use of digital technologies creates new opportunities. The article examines global practices of mediation and describes approaches practiced by non-governmental organizations and professional mediators in the digital era. The authors also discuss the problems of shifting interactions online that these actors have faced during the pandemic.
{"title":"International practices of conflict mediation in the era of digital technologies","authors":"Y. Nikitina, K. Taran","doi":"10.20542/2307-1494-2021-1-11-28","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2021-1-11-28","url":null,"abstract":"The digital age has brought about new online mediation practices. At first, these kinds of practices were introduced to business mediation and out-of-court dispute resolution, while such phenomena as Twitter diplomacy emerged in the domain of diplomacy. During the pandemic, online communication has also become the mainstream in the spheres of negotiations and mediation. Despite a number of problems that the online format does not allow to overcome (for example, lack of personal contact), interaction with the use of digital technologies creates new opportunities. The article examines global practices of mediation and describes approaches practiced by non-governmental organizations and professional mediators in the digital era. The authors also discuss the problems of shifting interactions online that these actors have faced during the pandemic.","PeriodicalId":34887,"journal":{"name":"Puti k miru i bezopasnosti","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67686365","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2021-2-11-23
S. Hogbladh
The Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s (UCDP) Peace Agreement Dataset was first published in 2006. Its main goal was to provide the research community with a dataset on peace agreements that was not linked to conflict termination, i. e. included both successful and failed agreements. The latest update of the dataset includes 355 peace agreements concluded in the 1975–2018 period. A number of studies have been based on the dataset over the years. The dataset is unique in its strict connection to the UCDP conflict data and in its focus on the conflict dyad, actors, and the conflict incompatibility. The dataset’s focus on only those agreements that involve the dyadic relationship between primary warring parties – between governments and rebel groups or between two governments – has direct policy implications, as it is exactly these parties who need to change their stances on incompatibilities in order to solve a conflict. Also, the Peace Agreement Dataset’s focus on agreements that address the key incompatibilities contested by the parties allow it to distinguish peace agreements on other negotiated deals, including ceasefires, and to differentiate between full, partial and peace process agreements. Finally, the analysis of key trends in peace agreements is presented. It shows that in contrast to the previous historical peak in the number of armed conflicts back in the early 1990s that corresponded to the peak in annual numbers of peace agreements, the new peak in annual numbers of armed conflicts in the late 2010s was not matched by a similar rise in peace agreements.
{"title":"Peace agreements in armed conflicts: focusing on finding a solution to the conflict incompatibility","authors":"S. Hogbladh","doi":"10.20542/2307-1494-2021-2-11-23","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2021-2-11-23","url":null,"abstract":"The Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s (UCDP) Peace Agreement Dataset was first published in 2006. Its main goal was to provide the research community with a dataset on peace agreements that was not linked to conflict termination, i. e. included both successful and failed agreements. The latest update of the dataset includes 355 peace agreements concluded in the 1975–2018 period. A number of studies have been based on the dataset over the years. The dataset is unique in its strict connection to the UCDP conflict data and in its focus on the conflict dyad, actors, and the conflict incompatibility. The dataset’s focus on only those agreements that involve the dyadic relationship between primary warring parties – between governments and rebel groups or between two governments – has direct policy implications, as it is exactly these parties who need to change their stances on incompatibilities in order to solve a conflict. Also, the Peace Agreement Dataset’s focus on agreements that address the key incompatibilities contested by the parties allow it to distinguish peace agreements on other negotiated deals, including ceasefires, and to differentiate between full, partial and peace process agreements. Finally, the analysis of key trends in peace agreements is presented. It shows that in contrast to the previous historical peak in the number of armed conflicts back in the early 1990s that corresponded to the peak in annual numbers of peace agreements, the new peak in annual numbers of armed conflicts in the late 2010s was not matched by a similar rise in peace agreements.","PeriodicalId":34887,"journal":{"name":"Puti k miru i bezopasnosti","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67686603","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2021-2-186-188
T. Jiang
{"title":"Towards more pragmatic UN peace operations?","authors":"T. Jiang","doi":"10.20542/2307-1494-2021-2-186-188","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2021-2-186-188","url":null,"abstract":"<jats:p />","PeriodicalId":34887,"journal":{"name":"Puti k miru i bezopasnosti","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67686701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2021-1-181-196
V. Smorchkova
Conflicts and problems in relations between the indigenous peoples of Russia’s Arctic and resource companies are solved by different methods. Business provides material support for social and economic development of the indigenous peoples, and helps to improve the state of their education, health and to preserve their traditional ways of life and cultures. Despite this, a number of issues remain unresolved. The evolving network of the UN Global Compact in Russia helps businesses and indigenous peoples to improve their partnership practices, to implement new ideas and mechanisms of interaction, and to search for social consensus in the process of developing the Russian Arctic. Overall, the level of resource and industrial companies’ interaction with indigenous communities is critical for sustainable development of the Russian Arctic.
{"title":"The evolution of relations between resource companies and indigenous peoples in the Russian Arctic","authors":"V. Smorchkova","doi":"10.20542/2307-1494-2021-1-181-196","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2021-1-181-196","url":null,"abstract":"Conflicts and problems in relations between the indigenous peoples of Russia’s Arctic and resource companies are solved by different methods. Business provides material support for social and economic development of the indigenous peoples, and helps to improve the state of their education, health and to preserve their traditional ways of life and cultures. Despite this, a number of issues remain unresolved. The evolving network of the UN Global Compact in Russia helps businesses and indigenous peoples to improve their partnership practices, to implement new ideas and mechanisms of interaction, and to search for social consensus in the process of developing the Russian Arctic. Overall, the level of resource and industrial companies’ interaction with indigenous communities is critical for sustainable development of the Russian Arctic.","PeriodicalId":34887,"journal":{"name":"Puti k miru i bezopasnosti","volume":"65 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67686906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2021-2-129-138
S. Mousavian, Y. Mahmoudieh
Public statements and a campaign promise made by the Joe Biden’s team raised hopes of the U.S. return to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), early in his presidency. As a result, expectations of the sanctions relief and impending diplomatic breakthrough with Iran quickly mounted after President Biden’s victory. However, a closer look at the emerging evidence reveals that the new administration initially intended to return to the JCPOA with a different Iran strategy, one of coercion and pressure. Due to former President Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, the JCPOA was practically dead. It then had to be revived. The article inspects key factors that were successful in changing the Biden administration’s policy towards a more realistic and cooperative approach. However, this delay on Biden’s part was not without consequences and has major implications for relations with Iran, as well as the implementation of the JCPOA.
{"title":"Evolution of the Biden administration’s approach to Iran nuclear deal and prospects for regional peace","authors":"S. Mousavian, Y. Mahmoudieh","doi":"10.20542/2307-1494-2021-2-129-138","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2021-2-129-138","url":null,"abstract":"Public statements and a campaign promise made by the Joe Biden’s team raised hopes of the U.S. return to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), early in his presidency. As a result, expectations of the sanctions relief and impending diplomatic breakthrough with Iran quickly mounted after President Biden’s victory. However, a closer look at the emerging evidence reveals that the new administration initially intended to return to the JCPOA with a different Iran strategy, one of coercion and pressure. Due to former President Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, the JCPOA was practically dead. It then had to be revived. The article inspects key factors that were successful in changing the Biden administration’s policy towards a more realistic and cooperative approach. However, this delay on Biden’s part was not without consequences and has major implications for relations with Iran, as well as the implementation of the JCPOA.","PeriodicalId":34887,"journal":{"name":"Puti k miru i bezopasnosti","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67686620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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