Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2022-1-133-136
E. Egan
Review of: Contemporary Peacemaking: Peace Processes, Peacebuilding and Conflict. Eds. R. Mac Ginty and A. Wanis-St.John. Cham: Palgrave Macmillan, 2022
审查:当代建立和平:和平进程、建设和平与冲突。Eds。R. Mac Ginty和A. Wanis-St.John。Cham: Palgrave Macmillan, 2022
{"title":"Peace processes, people, and politics","authors":"E. Egan","doi":"10.20542/2307-1494-2022-1-133-136","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2022-1-133-136","url":null,"abstract":"Review of: Contemporary Peacemaking: Peace Processes, Peacebuilding and Conflict. Eds. R. Mac Ginty and A. Wanis-St.John. Cham: Palgrave Macmillan, 2022","PeriodicalId":34887,"journal":{"name":"Puti k miru i bezopasnosti","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67687072","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2022-2-217-233
E. Karnaukhova
The article discusses the problem of the functioning of the nuclear nonproliferation regime in the context of the world order transformation. On August 1–26, 2022, the Tenth Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference ended without the adoption of a final document. Its absence, as well as the general atmosphere at the conference, boosted new discussions about the crisis of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). The author examines the nuclear nonproliferation regime through the lens of global power reconfiguration that, among other things, affects the NPT review process. The author explores general trends in the evolution of the nuclear nonproliferation regime since the collapse of the USSR. This allows us to both identify the factors of erosion of the nuclear nonproliferation regime and analyze prospects and risks of the NPT review process. The analysis is largely based on the first-hand material collected by the author during her in-person participation in the Tenth NPT Review Conference as a representative of a Russian nongovernmental organization, specializing in nuclear nonproliferation, disarmament, and global security.
{"title":"Erosion of the nuclear nonproliferation regime in the context of transformation of the world order (the case of Tenth Non-Proliferation Treaty Review conference)","authors":"E. Karnaukhova","doi":"10.20542/2307-1494-2022-2-217-233","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2022-2-217-233","url":null,"abstract":"The article discusses the problem of the functioning of the nuclear nonproliferation regime in the context of the world order transformation. On August 1–26, 2022, the Tenth Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference ended without the adoption of a final document. Its absence, as well as the general atmosphere at the conference, boosted new discussions about the crisis of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). The author examines the nuclear nonproliferation regime through the lens of global power reconfiguration that, among other things, affects the NPT review process. The author explores general trends in the evolution of the nuclear nonproliferation regime since the collapse of the USSR. This allows us to both identify the factors of erosion of the nuclear nonproliferation regime and analyze prospects and risks of the NPT review process. The analysis is largely based on the first-hand material collected by the author during her in-person participation in the Tenth NPT Review Conference as a representative of a Russian nongovernmental organization, specializing in nuclear nonproliferation, disarmament, and global security.","PeriodicalId":34887,"journal":{"name":"Puti k miru i bezopasnosti","volume":"43 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67687455","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2022-2-38-61
C. Delgado, K. Tschunkert
The article provides a global overview of the food security and conflict situation and discusses the two-way relationship between violent conflict and food security. On the one hand, violent conflict directly impacts food systems, affecting people’s ability to produce, trade, and access food. On the other, heightened food insecurity can contribute to the emergence and duration of conflict. The pathways leading from violent conflict to food insecurity or from food insecurity to conflict are highly complex and deeply contextual. The article draws from major current conflict settings to illustrate these complexities, including the unfolding armed conflict in Ukraine, with implications for food security felt far beyond the conflict-affected areas. The article concludes by arguing that there is an urgent need for incorporating a peace and conflict lens when conceptualising food security to promote a more holistic response across humanitarian, development, and peacebuilding spheres to the rapidly increasing levels of food insecurity. In doing so, it is fundamental to consider agency within a framing of food security. This factor is largely missing from the dominant technocratic or purely economic understanding of food security.
{"title":"Food security in conflict and peacebuilding settings: beyond a humanitarian concern","authors":"C. Delgado, K. Tschunkert","doi":"10.20542/2307-1494-2022-2-38-61","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2022-2-38-61","url":null,"abstract":"The article provides a global overview of the food security and conflict situation and discusses the two-way relationship between violent conflict and food security. On the one hand, violent conflict directly impacts food systems, affecting people’s ability to produce, trade, and access food. On the other, heightened food insecurity can contribute to the emergence and duration of conflict. The pathways leading from violent conflict to food insecurity or from food insecurity to conflict are highly complex and deeply contextual. The article draws from major current conflict settings to illustrate these complexities, including the unfolding armed conflict in Ukraine, with implications for food security felt far beyond the conflict-affected areas. The article concludes by arguing that there is an urgent need for incorporating a peace and conflict lens when conceptualising food security to promote a more holistic response across humanitarian, development, and peacebuilding spheres to the rapidly increasing levels of food insecurity. In doing so, it is fundamental to consider agency within a framing of food security. This factor is largely missing from the dominant technocratic or purely economic understanding of food security.","PeriodicalId":34887,"journal":{"name":"Puti k miru i bezopasnosti","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67687094","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The war from within: analyzing a contested entity’s perspective","authors":"B. Green","doi":"10.20542/2307-1494-2022-1-144-146","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2022-1-144-146","url":null,"abstract":"Review of: Matveeva A. Through Times of Trouble: Conflict in Southeastern Ukraine Explained from Within. Lanham, MD: Lexington Books, 2018","PeriodicalId":34887,"journal":{"name":"Puti k miru i bezopasnosti","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67687143","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2022-1-67-91
V. Kolosov
The article studies internal and external sovereignty of unrecognized or partially recognized post-Soviet states through the use of empirical analysis of quantitative data and critical analysis of subjective factors. It analyzes statistical and other information that reflects the demographic and socio-economic situation, foreign economic relations of such entities, and their impact on neighboring countries and regions. This is combined with the critical study of public opinions and popular identities based on surveys and 13 focus groups conducted in the fall of 2020 in Transnistria and Abkhazia. In all post-Soviet de facto states, the population has noticeably decreased (except for Nagorno-Karabakh before the 2020 war). The reason for the outflow of residents was the inability of such entities to provide citizens with decent incomes and their poor performance in economic competition with neighboring countries and regions, reflected in the dynamics of the key indicators per capita in terms of purchasing power parity. However, the economic and demographic situation cannot explain the sustainability of such entities. Strong political identity of citizens and their loyalty to the ruling regimes serve as the main basis for, and essential elements of, internal sovereignty. Participants of surveys highly value independence. They believe that it presumes economic independence, improved well-being, and the development of full-fledged international relations that helps to strengthen external sovereignty. Some respondents expressed disappointment with the fact that these goals have not been achieved in the course of 30 years. The geopolitical vision of the world by residents of post-Soviet de facto states is “Russia-centric”, although Russia is far from being idealized. In conclusion, the risks that Russia faces in connection with post-Soviet de facto states and with Moscow's involvement in the respective conflicts are assessed.
{"title":"Internal and external sovereignty of post-Soviet unrecognized states","authors":"V. Kolosov","doi":"10.20542/2307-1494-2022-1-67-91","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2022-1-67-91","url":null,"abstract":"The article studies internal and external sovereignty of unrecognized or partially recognized post-Soviet states through the use of empirical analysis of quantitative data and critical analysis of subjective factors. It analyzes statistical and other information that reflects the demographic and socio-economic situation, foreign economic relations of such entities, and their impact on neighboring countries and regions. This is combined with the critical study of public opinions and popular identities based on surveys and 13 focus groups conducted in the fall of 2020 in Transnistria and Abkhazia. In all post-Soviet de facto states, the population has noticeably decreased (except for Nagorno-Karabakh before the 2020 war). The reason for the outflow of residents was the inability of such entities to provide citizens with decent incomes and their poor performance in economic competition with neighboring countries and regions, reflected in the dynamics of the key indicators per capita in terms of purchasing power parity. However, the economic and demographic situation cannot explain the sustainability of such entities. Strong political identity of citizens and their loyalty to the ruling regimes serve as the main basis for, and essential elements of, internal sovereignty. Participants of surveys highly value independence. They believe that it presumes economic independence, improved well-being, and the development of full-fledged international relations that helps to strengthen external sovereignty. Some respondents expressed disappointment with the fact that these goals have not been achieved in the course of 30 years. The geopolitical vision of the world by residents of post-Soviet de facto states is “Russia-centric”, although Russia is far from being idealized. In conclusion, the risks that Russia faces in connection with post-Soviet de facto states and with Moscow's involvement in the respective conflicts are assessed.","PeriodicalId":34887,"journal":{"name":"Puti k miru i bezopasnosti","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67687222","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2022-2-82-98
N. Gavrilova, S. Kostelyanets
The article discusses the current state and dynamics of food security in East Africa. This region stands out in Africa not only as the most populous, but also as the fastest developing one, mostly due to its advanced economic growth and infrastructure construction in Ethiopia, Djibouti, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda. East African countries are particularly vulnerable to disruptions in food supplies from Russia and Ukraine. To assess food security in the region, the authors apply two methods designed by the World Bank and by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). These methods focus, correspondingly, on per capita incomes and malnutrition indicators. The authors further examine the impact of the Millennium Development Goals and the Sustainable Development Goals on food security in East Africa, investigate the main causes of food insecurity, and put forward policy recommendations for enhancing regional food security. Although achieving sustainable food security in East Africa appears unrealistic in the foreseeable future, intensification and digitalization of agriculture are critical to enhance food self-sufficiency of the region. The primary data sources for the article include FAO’s 2015–2021 surveys on food security and nutrition in Sub-Saharan Africa and statistical databases by FAO and the International Trade Center.
{"title":"Food security in East Africa","authors":"N. Gavrilova, S. Kostelyanets","doi":"10.20542/2307-1494-2022-2-82-98","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2022-2-82-98","url":null,"abstract":"The article discusses the current state and dynamics of food security in East Africa. This region stands out in Africa not only as the most populous, but also as the fastest developing one, mostly due to its advanced economic growth and infrastructure construction in Ethiopia, Djibouti, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda. East African countries are particularly vulnerable to disruptions in food supplies from Russia and Ukraine. To assess food security in the region, the authors apply two methods designed by the World Bank and by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). These methods focus, correspondingly, on per capita incomes and malnutrition indicators. The authors further examine the impact of the Millennium Development Goals and the Sustainable Development Goals on food security in East Africa, investigate the main causes of food insecurity, and put forward policy recommendations for enhancing regional food security. Although achieving sustainable food security in East Africa appears unrealistic in the foreseeable future, intensification and digitalization of agriculture are critical to enhance food self-sufficiency of the region. The primary data sources for the article include FAO’s 2015–2021 surveys on food security and nutrition in Sub-Saharan Africa and statistical databases by FAO and the International Trade Center.","PeriodicalId":34887,"journal":{"name":"Puti k miru i bezopasnosti","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67687226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2022-1-92-106
A. Matveeva
In order to better understand the new phase of the war in and around Donbass that started in February 2022, the article suggests looking back at the “interwar” period in the region. This period is analyzed through the prism of a combination of three interpretations of the conflict – as an irredentist movement to join the “historical homeland” which the region had been “separated from”, as a civil conflict for a different (multiethnic, multilingual, more decentralized) Ukraine, better disposed towards the aspirations of the people of Donbass, and as an international geopolitical confrontation between Russia and the West. All three interpretations are seen as valid. In 2014–2022, self-proclaimed republics (the DNR and the LNR) went through the stages of their formation in the context of a historical cataclysm, early postconflict development when their economic and social life was still oriented towards Ukraine, the cut-off stage resulting from a strict economic blockade by Kiev, and the concluding period of creeping integration into Russia. The article specifically addresses the limbo phase that lasted from 2016 to early 2022. While this phase brought a greater level of security that allowed life in the DNR and the LNR to go on, security was brittle and prone to significant disruption. However, in both security and socio-political terms, the worst was the sense of a lack of clarity about the entities’ future, with three scenarios circulated by politicians at once: return to Ukraine on the basis of the Minsk agreements, joining Russia, and building up their own “statehood”. The Minsk Agreements that were initially viewed positively, as they reduced the level of hostilities, progressively lost their value. Special status was not what the war had been fought for and it remained an amorphous and abstract idea, which the years that passed since failed to fill with practical content. Balancing on the verge of renewal of hostilities necessitated the resources that the two republics did not have, which locked them into dependency on the Russian government. While the republics survived as self-governing entities with a political and cultural proximity to Russia and established proto-state institutions, they also experienced governance deficit and economic decline. By the early 2020s, any illusions of the two republics’ independent agency evaporated. What started as a people’s rebellion, when the region asserted its right to make choices and act upon them, came to the situation that their future was to be determined elsewhere. This future seemed to clear up since Russia’s formal recognition of the DNR and the LNR and the start of Russian military operation in Ukraine in 2022, but its contours lie beyond the article’s scope.
{"title":"Donbass at limbo: self-proclaimed republics in the inter-war period (2014–2021)","authors":"A. Matveeva","doi":"10.20542/2307-1494-2022-1-92-106","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2022-1-92-106","url":null,"abstract":"In order to better understand the new phase of the war in and around Donbass that started in February 2022, the article suggests looking back at the “interwar” period in the region. This period is analyzed through the prism of a combination of three interpretations of the conflict – as an irredentist movement to join the “historical homeland” which the region had been “separated from”, as a civil conflict for a different (multiethnic, multilingual, more decentralized) Ukraine, better disposed towards the aspirations of the people of Donbass, and as an international geopolitical confrontation between Russia and the West. All three interpretations are seen as valid. In 2014–2022, self-proclaimed republics (the DNR and the LNR) went through the stages of their formation in the context of a historical cataclysm, early postconflict development when their economic and social life was still oriented towards Ukraine, the cut-off stage resulting from a strict economic blockade by Kiev, and the concluding period of creeping integration into Russia. The article specifically addresses the limbo phase that lasted from 2016 to early 2022. While this phase brought a greater level of security that allowed life in the DNR and the LNR to go on, security was brittle and prone to significant disruption. However, in both security and socio-political terms, the worst was the sense of a lack of clarity about the entities’ future, with three scenarios circulated by politicians at once: return to Ukraine on the basis of the Minsk agreements, joining Russia, and building up their own “statehood”. The Minsk Agreements that were initially viewed positively, as they reduced the level of hostilities, progressively lost their value. Special status was not what the war had been fought for and it remained an amorphous and abstract idea, which the years that passed since failed to fill with practical content. Balancing on the verge of renewal of hostilities necessitated the resources that the two republics did not have, which locked them into dependency on the Russian government. While the republics survived as self-governing entities with a political and cultural proximity to Russia and established proto-state institutions, they also experienced governance deficit and economic decline. By the early 2020s, any illusions of the two republics’ independent agency evaporated. What started as a people’s rebellion, when the region asserted its right to make choices and act upon them, came to the situation that their future was to be determined elsewhere. This future seemed to clear up since Russia’s formal recognition of the DNR and the LNR and the start of Russian military operation in Ukraine in 2022, but its contours lie beyond the article’s scope.","PeriodicalId":34887,"journal":{"name":"Puti k miru i bezopasnosti","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67687283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2022-2-11-37
V. Bartenev
The article explores an increasingly relevant topic of the impact of the sanction pressure on food security, summarizes and refines the assessments that have gained ground in political and academic discourse by early 2020s. The study first examines the restrictions on food and agricultural products, points at the legal gap that had emerged in this domain during the Cold War, and examines attempts to partially mitigate this gap by means of humanitarian exemptions from the sanction regimes. The range of options for making such exemptions has significantly expanded after the Cold War, but some factors, especially zero risk tolerance and overcompliance by financial institutions, reduce the effectiveness of these exemptions. Key mechanisms of direct and indirect impact of trade and financial sanctions on food security are addressed at the macro-level. The article also focuses on the novel dimensions of the nexus between sanctions and food security that emerged as a result of an escalation of the conflict in Ukraine and the following wave of unprecedented Western sanctions against Russia. In the future, the Western powers can also step up primary and secondary sanctions against those large non-Western powers who act as both suppliers of food products and donors of development programs. This, however, would inevitably have destructive reverse impact on the economies of both third states and sanctioning countries themselves. As a result, the sanctions–food security nexus may become even stronger, which, in turn, may hinder the achievement of food security-related goals and tasks envisaged in Global Sustainable Development Agenda. The only way out of this impasse is to boost parallel efforts to mitigate disruptive consequences of economic sanctions and to create conditions for resolving the conflicts which led to imposing these sanctions.
{"title":"The impact of sanctions on food security: traditional and new dimensions","authors":"V. Bartenev","doi":"10.20542/2307-1494-2022-2-11-37","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2022-2-11-37","url":null,"abstract":"The article explores an increasingly relevant topic of the impact of the sanction pressure on food security, summarizes and refines the assessments that have gained ground in political and academic discourse by early 2020s. The study first examines the restrictions on food and agricultural products, points at the legal gap that had emerged in this domain during the Cold War, and examines attempts to partially mitigate this gap by means of humanitarian exemptions from the sanction regimes. The range of options for making such exemptions has significantly expanded after the Cold War, but some factors, especially zero risk tolerance and overcompliance by financial institutions, reduce the effectiveness of these exemptions. Key mechanisms of direct and indirect impact of trade and financial sanctions on food security are addressed at the macro-level. The article also focuses on the novel dimensions of the nexus between sanctions and food security that emerged as a result of an escalation of the conflict in Ukraine and the following wave of unprecedented Western sanctions against Russia. In the future, the Western powers can also step up primary and secondary sanctions against those large non-Western powers who act as both suppliers of food products and donors of development programs. This, however, would inevitably have destructive reverse impact on the economies of both third states and sanctioning countries themselves. As a result, the sanctions–food security nexus may become even stronger, which, in turn, may hinder the achievement of food security-related goals and tasks envisaged in Global Sustainable Development Agenda. The only way out of this impasse is to boost parallel efforts to mitigate disruptive consequences of economic sanctions and to create conditions for resolving the conflicts which led to imposing these sanctions.","PeriodicalId":34887,"journal":{"name":"Puti k miru i bezopasnosti","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67687340","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2022-2-204-216
A. Gubin
The article assesses the possibility of escalation of the current Taiwan Strait crisis, taking into account Taipei’s activities and Washington’s stance. The People’s Republic of China’s stance on this issue and its approach to resolving the issue are examined through the lens of its proclaimed “core interests”. The author argues that the military option for the Taiwan Strait crisis is not optimal for either Beijing or Washington due to unpredictability of its consequences. It is suggested that the United States might even be comfortable with the use of military force by China, as it would provide justification for American hegemonic policy in East Asia. It is also suggested that the prolonged, protracted conflict may play into the Washington's hands, as it allows the United States to buy time for rallying allies and partners and to deploy more forces in the Pacific region. Taking into account potential consequences of escalation, the author suggests focusing on de-escalation efforts and on returning to dialogue between Beijing and Taipei. 台湾海峡危机：“强硬选择”的不确定性 本文根据中国台湾的行动以及美国的立场，研究了台湾海峡危机升级的可能性。调查了中国在这个问题上的立场，以及中国按照“根本利益”的概念解决这个问题的方法。文章试图证明，由于后果极难预测，以军事手段解决台湾海峡局势对双方来说都是极其低效的。同时，本文假设美国可能会对中国使用军事力量感到满意，因为这将证明美国在东亚的霸权是合理的。有人指出，冲突的延长显然对美国有利，因为它可能为盟国和伙伴在太平洋地区巩固和部署更多力量争取时间。此外，中国经济面临的压力可能会加强以美国为中心的交往形式。然而，俄罗斯在乌克兰的特别军事行动的经验表明，完全孤立世界大国是不可能的，因为它会使世界经济体系和全球战略稳定出现不稳定的状况。因此，研究建议把重点放在避免冲突升级的努力上，恢复海峡两岸之间的有效对话。
{"title":"The Taiwan Strait crisis: uncertainty of a military scenario","authors":"A. Gubin","doi":"10.20542/2307-1494-2022-2-204-216","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2022-2-204-216","url":null,"abstract":"The article assesses the possibility of escalation of the current Taiwan Strait crisis, taking into account Taipei’s activities and Washington’s stance. The People’s Republic of China’s stance on this issue and its approach to resolving the issue are examined through the lens of its proclaimed “core interests”. The author argues that the military option for the Taiwan Strait crisis is not optimal for either Beijing or Washington due to unpredictability of its consequences. It is suggested that the United States might even be comfortable with the use of military force by China, as it would provide justification for American hegemonic policy in East Asia. It is also suggested that the prolonged, protracted conflict may play into the Washington's hands, as it allows the United States to buy time for rallying allies and partners and to deploy more forces in the Pacific region. Taking into account potential consequences of escalation, the author suggests focusing on de-escalation efforts and on returning to dialogue between Beijing and Taipei. 台湾海峡危机：“强硬选择”的不确定性 本文根据中国台湾的行动以及美国的立场，研究了台湾海峡危机升级的可能性。调查了中国在这个问题上的立场，以及中国按照“根本利益”的概念解决这个问题的方法。文章试图证明，由于后果极难预测，以军事手段解决台湾海峡局势对双方来说都是极其低效的。同时，本文假设美国可能会对中国使用军事力量感到满意，因为这将证明美国在东亚的霸权是合理的。有人指出，冲突的延长显然对美国有利，因为它可能为盟国和伙伴在太平洋地区巩固和部署更多力量争取时间。此外，中国经济面临的压力可能会加强以美国为中心的交往形式。然而，俄罗斯在乌克兰的特别军事行动的经验表明，完全孤立世界大国是不可能的，因为它会使世界经济体系和全球战略稳定出现不稳定的状况。因此，研究建议把重点放在避免冲突升级的努力上，恢复海峡两岸之间的有效对话。","PeriodicalId":34887,"journal":{"name":"Puti k miru i bezopasnosti","volume":"47 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67687444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Women as rebel actors","authors":"I. Yardimci","doi":"10.20542/2307-1494-2022-2-282-284","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20542/2307-1494-2022-2-282-284","url":null,"abstract":"Darden J. T., Henshaw A., Szekely O. Insurgent Women: Female Combatants in Civil Wars. –Washington, D.C.: Georgetown University Press, 2019. 102 p.","PeriodicalId":34887,"journal":{"name":"Puti k miru i bezopasnosti","volume":"30 11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67687034","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：