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Understanding Russia’s foreign policy behavior in the context of the conflict in Ukraine 在乌克兰冲突的背景下理解俄罗斯的外交政策行为
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2023-1-215-220
O. Krasnyak
Review of: Borozna A. The Sources of Russian Foreign Policy Assertiveness. Cham: Palgrave Macmillan, 2022; The War in Ukraine’s Donbas: Origins, Contexts, and the Future. Ed. D.R.Marples. Budapest: Central European University Press, 2022
《俄罗斯外交政策自信的来源》。Cham: Palgrave Macmillan, 2022;乌克兰顿巴斯战争:起源、背景和未来。艾德。D.R.Marples。布达佩斯:中欧大学出版社,2022
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引用次数: 0
Hutu vs. Tutsi in Burundi: why local vigilantes are a threat to the future of the state? 布隆迪的胡图族与图西族:为什么地方治安维持者是国家未来的威胁?
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2023-1-183-204
P. Ivanov
Burundi has a long history of political violence and vigilantism that were particularly widespread in the context of the 1993–2005 civil war. During this period, various armed groups and militias emerged and engaged in violent attacks against civilians, rival rebel groups, and even government forces for ethnic or political reasons. In the aftermath of the civil war, the government of Burundi has struggled to address the legacy of violence and establish a stable political system. Yet vigilantism remains a significant issue in Burundi, with reports of civilians taking the law into their own hands in response to perceived threats and injustices. In some areas, local communities have organized vigilante groups to protect themselves from different crimes, while police as the only legal law enforcement actor to fight crime remains unsuccessful in providing proper security. However, vigilante groups also engage in extrajudicial acts of violence, such as lynching, or mob justice, and can exacerbate existing ethnic tensions and conflicts. The article concludes that long-term interethnic antagonism, coupled with experience of mutual extermination, can become the main catalyst for vigilantism that presents a threat for the overall stability of political system.
布隆迪有着悠久的政治暴力和治安维持的历史,在1993年至2005年的内战中尤其普遍。在此期间,出现了各种武装团体和民兵,并出于种族或政治原因对平民、敌对反叛团体甚至政府军进行暴力袭击。内战结束后,布隆迪政府一直在努力解决暴力遗留问题,并建立一个稳定的政治体系。然而,治安维持主义在布隆迪仍然是一个重大问题,有报告说,平民在面对威胁和不公正的情况下,自己掌握了法律。在一些地区,当地社区组织了自卫团体,以保护自己免受各种犯罪的侵害,而警察作为打击犯罪的唯一合法执法行为者,在提供适当的安全方面仍然失败。然而,治安维持团体也从事法外暴力行为,如私刑或暴民司法,并可能加剧现有的种族紧张局势和冲突。文章的结论是,长期的种族间对抗,加上相互灭绝的经验,可以成为对政治制度整体稳定构成威胁的治安维持主义的主要催化剂。
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引用次数: 0
Were the Minsk Agreements doomed to failure? An alternative history 明斯克协议注定要失败吗?另一种历史
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2022-1-107-120
N. Arbatova
History does not allow for subjunctive mood but politics do allow. As Russia‟s special military operation is underway in Ukraine growing into a major, deadly conflict with unpredictable consequences, it is worthwhile to ask a question: could this conflict be prevented if the Minsk agreements were implemented? The 2014 and 2015 Minsk agreements were aimed at securing a ceasefire between the Ukrainian government and pro-Russian separatists in southeastern Ukraine (Donbass). The rebels from Donetsk and Lugansk drew their courage from the “Crimea precedent” – Moscow‟s incorporation of the Crimea “on the basis of voluntary self-determination and historical commonness”. The Minsk agreements were a product of the Normandy format – a platform for senior diplomats from France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine, created in June 2014 with the aim of finding a peaceful resolution to the conflict. The agreements ended large-scale fighting, but not creeping violence that posed the main obstacle for the political settlement of the conflict. The article provides an analysis of the Minsk agreements, including their strengths and weaknesses. Special attention is paid to the EU‟s political goals and instruments for the peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian conflict. The article also seeks to explain why the Europeans have not been able to take on a more visible and effective role in the implementation of their proclaimed goals.
历史不允许虚拟语气,但政治允许。随着俄罗斯在乌克兰的特别军事行动演变成一场后果不可预测的重大致命冲突,我们有必要问一个问题:如果明斯克协议得以实施,这场冲突能避免吗?2014年和2015年的明斯克协议旨在确保乌克兰政府和亲俄分裂分子在乌克兰东南部(顿巴斯)停火。顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克的叛军从“克里米亚先例”中汲取了勇气——莫斯科“在自愿自决和历史共性的基础上”吞并了克里米亚。明斯克协议是诺曼底模式的产物。诺曼底模式是法国、德国、俄罗斯和乌克兰的高级外交官于2014年6月建立的平台,旨在找到和平解决冲突的办法。这些协议结束了大规模的战斗,但没有阻止逐渐蔓延的暴力,暴力是政治解决冲突的主要障碍。本文对明斯克协议进行了分析,包括其优点和缺点。特别关注的是欧盟的政治目标和手段,以和平解决乌克兰冲突。这篇文章还试图解释,为什么欧洲人未能在实施其所宣布的目标方面发挥更明显、更有效的作用。
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引用次数: 0
What’s in a name? “De facto states”, terminological choices and normative consequences 名字里有什么?“事实上的国家”,术语选择和规范后果
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2022-1-30-46
P. Kolstø
There are a handful of territories around the globe that have state-like qualities such as governments, police, and tax collection, but are not recognized as states by other states, or are, perhaps, recognized by only one or several states. The study of these entities has been characterized by “terminological anarchy”, with each author developing his or her own designations, sometimes covering exactly the same ground, or seeking to introduce definitions to expand or delimit the number of cases. While these “name games” are partly driven by the ambitions of academics who want to present their research as being original and innovative, they also reveal underlying attitudes towards the phenomenon of de facto statehood. In the article, the range of appellations used in describing these political entities at the margins of international society is analyzed, to see what the choices of names can tell us about underlying attitudes. It is argued that current terminological pluralism is unhelpful and should be eliminated, in order to ensure that we are referring to the same entities in discussing what these entities “are”, what moves them and how they interact with other entities.
世界上有少数几个地区具有类似国家的性质,如政府、警察和税收,但不被其他国家承认为国家,或者可能只被一个或几个国家承认。对这些实体的研究具有“术语混乱”的特点,每个作者都提出自己的名称,有时涵盖完全相同的领域,或试图引入定义以扩大或划定案例的数量。虽然这些“名字游戏”在一定程度上是由学者们的雄心所驱动的,他们希望展示自己的研究是原创的和创新的,但它们也揭示了对事实上的国家地位现象的潜在态度。在这篇文章中,我们分析了用于描述这些处于国际社会边缘的政治实体的称谓范围,看看这些名称的选择能告诉我们哪些潜在的态度。有人认为,目前的术语多元化是无益的,应予以消除,以确保我们在讨论这些实体“是”什么、是什么推动它们以及它们如何与其他实体相互作用时提到相同的实体。
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引用次数: 0
Hunger as a weapon: short-term and long-term effects (the case of the siege of Leningrad) 饥饿作为武器:短期和长期影响(列宁格勒围城案例)
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2022-2-125-149
N. Lomagin
In the end of August 1941, the Nazi leadership decided to besiege Leningrad to deliberately starve the city’s inhabitants. Since November, Leningrad was entering its period of mass starvation and death. In December 1941, according to incomplete records, starvation and dystrophy killed more than 50 000 people, in January and February of 1942 – almost 100 000 monthly. Relying on various archival materials, as well as on published sources and literature, the article analyzes impacts of lasting hunger on civilians during the longest siege of the World War Two. Also, it explores the long-term effects of starvation on health of siege survivors and their descendants. While various dimensions of hunger-related illnesses were studied during the siege of Leningrad, the scholarly attention to this topic has significantly decreased since early 1950s, although the consequences of prolonged starvation affected the health of blockade survivors throughout their lives and had an impact on the health of their descendants. Further study of this topic is suggested, to be conducted with the use of methods of biology/epigenetics.
1941年8月底,纳粹领导人决定围困列宁格勒,故意让城市居民挨饿。自11月以来,列宁格勒进入了大规模饥饿和死亡的时期。1941年12月,根据不完全的记录,饥饿和营养不良造成5万多人死亡,1942年1月和2月,每月几乎有10万人死亡。本文依靠各种档案资料,以及已出版的资料和文献,分析了在第二次世界大战最长的围困期间,持续饥饿对平民的影响。此外,它还探讨了饥饿对围城幸存者及其后代健康的长期影响。虽然在列宁格勒围城期间对与饥饿有关的疾病的各个方面进行了研究,但自1950年代初以来,学术界对这一主题的关注大大减少,尽管长期饥饿的后果影响了封锁幸存者的一生健康,并对其后代的健康产生了影响。建议利用生物学/表观遗传学的方法对该课题进行进一步的研究。
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引用次数: 0
Postconflict cities: remnants of war in peace 冲突后城市:和平中的战争残余物
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2022-2-285-287
G. Berdimyradova
Gusic I. Contesting Peace in the Postwar City: Belfast, Mitrovica and Mostar. – New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2020. 311 p.
战后城市的和平之争:贝尔法斯特、米特罗维察和莫斯塔尔。-纽约:Palgrave Macmillan出版社,2020年。311便士。
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引用次数: 0
The Western Hemisphere countries and global food problem: current state and prospects 西半球国家与全球粮食问题:现状与展望
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2022-2-99-124
O. Ovchinnikov
The modern civilization has faced a number of problems of a planetary scale, and not only its condition, but, perhaps, its very existence will depend on solving these problems. One of the most urgent ones is the global food problem (GFP) – the ability of humanity to provide itself with sufficient food while fulfilling a number of related conditions within the framework of the concept of sustainable development. The article examines the state and possibility of solving the GFP in the Western Hemisphere, both in the region as a whole and in the context of individual countries. Following the structure of the GFP factors, the availability of natural resources for agricultural purposes, as well as the volume and sectoral structure of production of main agricultural products are analyzed. The author assesses the near-term prospects of the possibility of providing the population of individual countries with sufficient food by using model calculations that depend on two factors: availability of arable land and economic well-being (per capita GDP). Special attention is also paid to the analysis of the environmental aspect of the GFP, in assessing both the current state of the problem in the region and the prospects for its solution. This factor is seen as one of the keys to development of food systems in several Latin American countries. Certain attention is also paid to some "new" GFP factors, such as the problem of food losses (quite relevant for developed countries, especially for the United States), as well as logistics. Disruptions of logistical chains during market shocks (for example, during the COVID-19 pandemic) has posed a major problem for countries with highly developed food markets. In conclusion, the region's overall position in the global food system is seen as quite strong. At the same time, the differences between some countries on a number of indicators that determine the level of food security is very significant. Thus, the region’s prospects in terms of solving the GPP will largely depend on the ability/determination of individual countries to offset the negative impact of a number of GFP factors.
现代文明面临着许多全球性的问题,不仅它的生存状况,而且它的存在与否也许将取决于对这些问题的解决。其中最紧迫的问题之一是全球粮食问题,即人类在可持续发展概念框架内满足若干相关条件的同时为自己提供充足粮食的能力。本文考察了解决西半球GFP的状态和可能性,无论是在整个地区还是在个别国家的背景下。根据GFP因素的结构,分析了农业自然资源的可获得性,以及主要农产品的产量和部门结构。作者通过使用依赖于两个因素的模型计算来评估向个别国家的人口提供足够食物的可能性的近期前景:可耕地的可用性和经济福利(人均国内生产总值)。在评估该区域问题的现状和解决问题的前景时,还特别注意分析绿色生产力的环境方面。在一些拉丁美洲国家,这一因素被视为发展粮食系统的关键因素之一。一些“新的”GFP因素也得到了一定的关注,例如粮食损失问题(与发达国家,特别是美国相当相关)以及物流问题。在市场冲击期间(例如在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间),物流链中断对粮食市场高度发达的国家构成了一个重大问题。总之,该地区在全球粮食体系中的总体地位被视为相当强大。与此同时,一些国家在决定粮食安全水平的若干指标上的差异非常大。因此,该地区在解决GFP问题方面的前景将在很大程度上取决于个别国家抵消若干GFP因素的负面影响的能力/决心。
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引用次数: 0
Peace processes, violence, and de facto states: introduction 和平进程、暴力和事实上的国家:导论
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2022-1-7-29
E. Stepanova, S. Golunov
Only a quarter of outcomes of armed conflicts that ended during the first two decades of the 21st century resulted from negotiated peace or ceasefire agreements. While comprehensive, final, and conclusive peace agreements are in relative decline, ceasefires, limited, or partial, accords, and local agreements proliferate. The dynamics of peacemaking and the critical interplay of talks and violence during peace processes become increasingly nonlinear, complex, and unpredictable. In this special issue, a mix of actors, dynamics and factors at the interface of peace processes and violence is narrowed down to contexts that involve de facto states, most of whom experience both an ongoing or stalemated peace process and recurring violence of different types and varying degree of intensity. The article provides the analytical context for the special issue and discusses basic terminology and concepts, such as “peace processes” and “de facto states”, and some of the global data-based trends and research literature on the volume‟s subject. The first part of this article focuses on peace processes and the interplay of peacemaking and violence, the second one looks into the “state of the art” on de facto states, while the third one presents a summary of, including the main take-off from, the authors‟ contributions to this special issue.
在21世纪头二十年结束的武装冲突中,只有四分之一的结果是通过谈判达成的和平或停火协议。虽然全面、最终和结论性的和平协议相对减少,但停火、有限或部分协议和地方协议却激增。在和平进程中,建立和平的动态以及谈判和暴力的关键相互作用变得越来越非线性、复杂和不可预测。在本期特刊中,和平进程与暴力交界的各种行为者、动态和因素被缩小到涉及事实上的国家的情况,其中大多数国家既经历了正在进行的和平进程或陷入僵局,又经历了不同类型和不同强度的反复发生的暴力。文章为特刊提供了分析背景,并讨论了基本术语和概念,如“和平进程”和“事实上的国家”,以及一些基于全球数据的趋势和关于本卷主题的研究文献。本文的第一部分侧重于和平进程以及和平与暴力的相互作用,第二部分探讨了事实上的国家的“最新技术”,而第三部分则概述了作者对本期特刊的贡献,其中包括主要的借鉴。
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引用次数: 0
On the edge of crisis: Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan and repercussions for the U.S.-China rivalry 在危机的边缘:佩洛西访问台湾和对美中竞争的影响
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2022-2-175-187
Q. Xin, J. Wang
In recent years, the U.S. has vigorously pursued the policy of “using Taiwan to contain mainland China” to thwart China's rise and maintain its hegemonic position. This policy has further exacerbated the China U.S. rivalry in the Taiwan Strait. The audacious visit to Taiwan by Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, in August 2022 triggered a systematic countermeasure from China and dramatically exacerbated tensions in the Taiwan Strait. This article first analyzes the purpose of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, then reviews China‟s countermeasures against the visit. The author argues that the tensions in the Taiwan Strait have not escalated into the so-called “Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis” because the policies of the mainland China, the United States, and Taiwan are still self-restrained. However, these tensions have negatively affected China U.S. relations and Cross-Strait relations. 在危机的 边缘 佩洛西 访 台及其 对 中美博弈的冲 击 近年来,为了阻滞中国的持续崛起以维护其霸权地位,美国积极推行“以台制华”的政策,进而提升了中美台海博弈的烈度。2022年8月,美国国会众议院议长佩洛西访问台湾之行引发了中方的系统性反制,显著加剧了台海的紧张形势。本文首先对佩洛西访台事件及其动因进行了分析,其次梳理了中方针对佩洛西访台的全面反制举措,在此基础上指出由于中国大陆、美国与台湾地区均采取了较为克制的应对举措,使得此次台海紧张形势未升级为“第四次台海危机”,但仍对中美关系和两岸关系造成了恶劣的影响。
近年来,美国大力推行“用台湾遏制中国大陆”的政策,阻挠中国崛起,维护其霸权地位。这一政策进一步加剧了中美在台湾海峡的对抗。2022年8月,美国众议院议长南希·佩洛西大胆访问台湾,引发了中国的系统性反制,台湾海峡的紧张局势急剧加剧。本文首先分析了佩洛西访台的目的,然后回顾了中国对佩洛西访台的应对措施。作者认为,台湾海峡的紧张局势并没有升级为所谓的“第四次台海危机”,因为中国大陆、美国和台湾的政策仍然是自我克制的。然而,这些紧张局势对中美关系和两岸关系产生了负面影响。在危机的 边缘 佩洛西 访 台及其 对 中美博弈的冲 击 近年来,为了阻滞中国的持续崛起以维护其霸权地位,美国积极推行“以台制华”的政策,进而提升了中美台海博弈的烈度。2022年8月,美国国会众议院议长佩洛西访问台湾之行引发了中方的系统性反制,显著加剧了台海的紧张形势。本文首先对佩洛西访台事件及其动因进行了分析,其次梳理了中方针对佩洛西访台的全面反制举措,在此基础上指出由于中国大陆、美国与台湾地区均采取了较为克制的应对举措,使得此次台海紧张形势未升级为“第四次台海危机”,但仍对中美关系和两岸关系造成了恶劣的影响。
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引用次数: 0
The IAEA verification activity 国际原子能机构核查活动
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.20542/2307-1494-2022-2-245-262
V. Bytchkov
The article explores the verification activity by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This activity involves three key aspects: the legal framework, goals, and measures and verification procedures to achieve these goals. The author analyzes legal and technical aspects of the IAEA verification activity, including the notions of diversion of nuclear material and a state’s noncompliance with its commitments related to corresponding safeguards agreements. The analysis is based on the systematic approach that takes into account the evolution of the safeguards system. The author proposes an original approach to reduce the risks of politicization of decisions on noncompliance of states with safeguards agreements by specifying the main notions related to the system of safeguards.
本文探讨了国际原子能机构(IAEA)的核查活动。这项活动涉及三个关键方面:法律框架、目标以及实现这些目标的措施和核查程序。作者分析了原子能机构核查活动的法律和技术方面,包括核材料转用的概念和一国不遵守与相应保障协定有关的承诺。分析是根据考虑到保障制度演变的系统方法进行的。作者提出了一种新颖的方法,通过具体说明与保障制度有关的主要概念,来减少关于国家不遵守保障协定的决定政治化的风险。
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引用次数: 0
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