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Interpreting direct sales’ demand forecasts using SHAP values 使用SHAP值解释直销需求预测
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2023-01-06 DOI: 10.1590/0103-6513.20220035
Mariana Arboleda-Florez, Carlos Castro-Zuluaga
Paper aims: Several concerns regarding the lack of interpretability of machine learning models obstruct the implementation of machine learning projects as part of the demand forecasting process. This paper presents a methodology to support the introduction of machine learning into the forecasting process of a traditional direct sales company by providing explanations for the otherwise obscure results. We also suggest incorporating human knowledge inside the machine learning pipeline as an essential part of capturing the business logic and integrating machine learning into the existing processes. Originality: Using explainable machine learning methods on real-life company data demonstrates that machine learning techniques are functional beyond the academy and can be introduced to everyday companies’ production. Research method: The project used real-world data from a company and followed a traditional machine learning pipeline to collect, preprocess, select and train a machine learning model, to conclude with the explanation of the model results through the implementation of SHAP Main findings: The results provided insights regarding the contribution of the features to the forecast. We analyzed individual predictions to understand the behavior of different variables, proving helpful when interpreting complex machine learning models. Implications for theory and practice: This study contributes to a discussion about adopting new technology and implementing machine learning models for demand forecasting. The methodology presented in this paper can be used to implement similar projects on interested companies.
论文目的:关于机器学习模型缺乏可解释性的几个问题阻碍了机器学习项目作为需求预测过程的一部分的实施。本文提出了一种方法,通过为其他模糊的结果提供解释,支持将机器学习引入传统直销公司的预测过程。我们还建议将人类知识纳入机器学习管道中,作为捕获业务逻辑和将机器学习集成到现有流程中的重要组成部分。原创性:将可解释的机器学习方法应用于现实生活中的公司数据,表明机器学习技术的功能超越了学院,可以引入日常公司生产。研究方法:该项目使用来自一家公司的真实数据,并遵循传统的机器学习管道来收集,预处理,选择和训练机器学习模型,最后通过实施SHAP来解释模型结果。主要发现:结果提供了关于特征对预测的贡献的见解。我们分析了个体预测,以了解不同变量的行为,这在解释复杂的机器学习模型时很有帮助。对理论和实践的启示:本研究有助于讨论采用新技术和实施机器学习模型进行需求预测。本文提出的方法可用于对感兴趣的公司实施类似的项目。
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引用次数: 1
Energy efficiency decision-making in non-energy intensive industries: content and social network analysis 非能源密集型产业的能源效率决策:内容与社会网络分析
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1590/0103-6513.20210065
J. Martins, M. I. Morandi, D. P. Lacerda, Barbara Pisoni Bender Andrade
Paper aims: The present study aims to identify the limitations of the artifacts used in the decision-making process in the adoption of energy efficiency measures in productive systems, using non-intensive energy companies as a delimitation. Originality: Identifies authors and connections, the relationships between them and how these interactions contribute to the advancement of knowledge on the subject. Regarding energy efficiency, studies show that the real investment in initiatives in the industrial sector is below the full potential and that the artifacts used in the decision-making process have severe limitations when used in a complex and dynamic context. Research method: In this paper a systematic literature review was conducted from the Literature-Grounded Theory. Additionally, social network analysis was used. Main findings: It concludes that the approaches are limited to technical and financial factors and does not consider a systemic and dynamic understanding of different internal and external variables to the organization. Implications for theory and practice: The contribution of this study is that it identifies the initiatives that help in the process of decision-making for the adoption of energy efficiency measures in productive systems. Specifically, the focus of this study is on non-intensive energy companies. Scientific articles published in the main databases of management were selected.
论文目的:本研究旨在确定在生产系统中采用能源效率措施的决策过程中使用的人工制品的局限性,使用非密集型能源公司作为界限。原创性:识别作者和联系,他们之间的关系,以及这些相互作用如何促进该主题知识的进步。关于能源效率,研究表明,对工业部门倡议的实际投资低于全部潜力,决策过程中使用的人工制品在复杂和动态的环境中使用时具有严重的局限性。研究方法:本文从文献基础理论出发,进行了系统的文献综述。此外,还使用了社会网络分析。主要发现:本文的结论是,这些方法仅限于技术和财务因素,而没有考虑对组织内部和外部不同变量的系统和动态理解。对理论和实践的启示:本研究的贡献在于它确定了有助于在生产系统中采用能源效率措施的决策过程中的举措。具体来说,本研究的重点是非密集型能源公司。选取主要管理学数据库中发表的科学论文。
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引用次数: 2
Flexibility of operations in developing countries with Industry 4.0. A systematic review of literature 发展中国家在工业4.0时代的运营灵活性。对文献的系统回顾
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1590/0103-6513.20210055
Diana C. Tascón, G. Mejía, D. Rojas-Sánchez
Paper aims: To provide guidelines on current state of the literature on aspects related to the implementation of Industry 4.0 (I4.0) for operations flexibility in emerging economies, and derived from this, propose a conceptual framework for the analysis of the main topics studied. Originality: Based on previous literature reviews on related topics (I4.0 and flexibility), we recognized an opportunity to focus on developing countries which until now has not been documented. Research method: We carried out a systematic review of the literature together with a topic cluster analysis. Main findings: The study revealed that there is a perceived consensus on how Industry 4.0 technologies can impact flexibility in emerging countries. Cloud computing is by far the most adopted technology despite the fact that there is a wide concern about security issues. The use of other technologies and their impact appears to be incipient. Implications for theory and practice: The study presented here can be used as a starting point for new directions of research in terms of adoption of these technologies and new applications developed and/or customized to the realities of emerging countries.
论文的目的是:提供有关新兴经济体实施工业4.0 (I4.0)操作灵活性方面的文献现状的指导方针,并由此得出一个概念框架,用于分析所研究的主要主题。原创性:基于先前对相关主题(工业4.0和灵活性)的文献综述,我们认识到有机会关注发展中国家,直到现在还没有记录。研究方法:对相关文献进行系统综述,并进行主题聚类分析。主要发现:研究显示,对于工业4.0技术如何影响新兴国家的灵活性,人们达成了共识。云计算是迄今为止采用最多的技术,尽管存在着对安全问题的广泛关注。其他技术的使用及其影响似乎才刚刚开始。对理论和实践的影响:在采用这些技术和根据新兴国家的实际情况开发和/或定制的新应用方面,这里提出的研究可以作为新的研究方向的起点。
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引用次数: 3
Prioritisation of barriers for supply chain management implementation in the Malaysian automotive industry 马来西亚汽车工业供应链管理实施障碍的优先排序
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1590/0103-6513.20210073
A. Anis, R. Islam, N. I. Hafit
Paper aims: Several Barriers impede the robust effectiveness of the supply-chain management implementation for the Malaysian automotive industry. The purpose of the present work is to identify these Barriers and prioritize them. Originality: Originality of the present work lies in identifying the Barriers, putting them into categories and subsequently prioritize them by applying a scientific method such as Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Research Research method: This study has identified five main categories of Barriers through literature reviews. Fourteen practitioners who are involved with the automotive industry helped prioritise those Barriers by applying the AHP. Main Main findings: Five main categories of Barriers are found to be technological, organisational, individual, strategic, and cultural barriers. Organisational barrier is the most critical barrier followed by technological and strategic barriers. Implications for theory and practice: This research provides important feedback to the automotive company managers to take appropriate measures to minimise negative impacts of the barriers identified.
论文的目的:几个障碍阻碍了马来西亚汽车工业供应链管理实施的强大有效性。当前工作的目的是确定这些障碍并对其进行优先排序。原创性:当前工作的原创性在于识别障碍,将其分类,然后通过应用层次分析法(AHP)等科学方法对其进行优先排序。研究方法:本研究通过文献综述,确定了障碍的五大类。参与汽车行业的14位从业人员通过应用AHP帮助确定这些障碍的优先级。主要发现:五种主要类型的障碍被发现是技术、组织、个人、战略和文化障碍。组织壁垒是最关键的壁垒,其次是技术壁垒和战略壁垒。理论与实践启示:本研究为汽车公司管理者提供了重要的反馈,以采取适当的措施,尽量减少所发现的障碍的负面影响。
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引用次数: 0
Corporate social responsibility and competitiveness: a study of Brazilian multinationals 企业社会责任与竞争力:巴西跨国公司研究
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1590/0103-6513.20210111
Mary Fernanda de Sousa de Melo, R. Piao, Willerson Lucas Campos-Silva, Diogo Palheta Nery
Paper aims: This study aims to analyze the relationship between the corporate social responsibility (CSR) strategy and competitiveness, considering the moderating effect of the governance mode on CSR actions. Originality: This study sheds some light on a tendency towards the proactivity in terms of CSR of Brazilian Multinationals. They also present collaborative governance mode more frequently to conduct CSR actions. Research method: In order to reach the research objective, a survey research was carried out in 144 Brazilian Multinationals and SmartPLS was used to conduct partial least square-structural equation modeling analysis. Main findings: The results indicated that there is a positive relationship between CSR and competitiveness. Regarding the CSR governance mode, the adoption of different governance modes depending on the characteristics of the CSR action developed.
论文目的:本研究旨在分析企业社会责任战略与竞争力之间的关系,并考虑治理模式对企业社会责任行为的调节作用。独创性:本研究揭示了巴西跨国公司在企业社会责任方面的主动性倾向。他们也更频繁地提出协同治理模式来开展企业社会责任行动。研究方法:为了达到研究目的,对144家巴西跨国公司进行了调查研究,并使用SmartPLS进行偏最小二乘结构方程建模分析。研究发现:企业社会责任与企业竞争力之间存在正相关关系。在企业社会责任治理模式方面,根据企业社会责任行动的特点采取不同的治理模式。
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引用次数: 1
A PRISMA-driven systematic review of data mining methods used for defects detection and classification in the manufacturing industry 一个prisma驱动的数据挖掘方法在制造业中用于缺陷检测和分类的系统回顾
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1590/0103-6513.20210097
Blanka Bártová, V. Bína, Lucie Váchová
Paper aims: This research aims to analyze the primary studies published in recent years focusing on defect detection or classification in manufacturing and extract information about frequently used data mining (DM) methods, their accuracy, strengths, and limitations. Originality: Industrial production is now undergoing a dynamic transformation in the context of Industry 4.0, where implementation of data mining is a frequently discussed topic, and such an overall summary is missing. Research method: In this study, the PRISMA-driven systematic literature review is combined with the approach defined by Kitchenham (2004). Main findings: The most frequently used data mining methods for defect detection are Bayesian network (BN) and Support vector machine (SVM). Besides previously mentioned methods, the Decision trees (DT) and Clustering are often used for defect classification. Neural Networks (NN) use is common for both defect detection and classification. DT, together with the Genetic algorithm (GA) and SVM, achieved the highest average accuracy. Recently, authors often combine different DM methods, and also methods for data dimensionality reduction are often used. Implications for theory and practice: This study contributes to the quality management literature by extending a summary of recently used DM methods for defect detection and classification. This summary can help researchers choose a suitable method and build models for achieving its research purpose.
论文目的:本研究旨在分析近年来发表的关于制造业缺陷检测或分类的主要研究,并提取常用数据挖掘(DM)方法的信息,以及它们的准确性、优势和局限性。原创性:在工业4.0的背景下,工业生产正在经历一场动态的变革,其中数据挖掘的实施是一个经常讨论的话题,缺乏这样一个全面的总结。研究方法:本研究采用prisma驱动的系统文献综述与Kitchenham(2004)定义的方法相结合。主要发现:缺陷检测中最常用的数据挖掘方法是贝叶斯网络(BN)和支持向量机(SVM)。除了前面提到的方法,决策树(DT)和聚类通常用于缺陷分类。神经网络(NN)在缺陷检测和分类中都是常用的。DT与遗传算法(GA)和支持向量机(SVM)的平均准确率最高。近年来,作者经常将不同的数据决策方法结合在一起,也经常使用数据降维方法。对理论和实践的启示:本研究通过扩展对最近用于缺陷检测和分类的DM方法的总结,为质量管理文献做出了贡献。这样的总结可以帮助研究者选择合适的方法和建立模型来达到研究目的。
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引用次数: 3
Fuzzy multi-objective optimization of the energy transition towards renewable energies with a mixed methodology 混合方法下可再生能源转型的模糊多目标优化
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1590/0103-6513.20210132
F. G. Camargo
Paper aims : the combination of the quality indices, a novel model called “Dynamic Growth Allocation Model (DGAM)”, Fuzzy Decision Making Theory (FDM), Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Evolutive Particle Swarm Optimization (EPSO) is proposed. Originality : the multi-objective optimization (with uncertainty) of the Argentine energy transition is not sufficiently studied. This combined methodology in this problem was not published and it had good, relatively easy and fast results. Research method : the optimization indices (EROI, CO2, IC and RP), the methodology used (DGAM, FDM, AHP and EPSO) and its results are analyzed. Main findings : (i) the nuclear energy allowed the renewable transition; (ii) the fossil dismantling and the investment in biomass and wind are needed; (iii) the EROI depends on the good load factor, useful life and performance. Implications for theory and practice : It is sought a minimum Renewable Participation (RP) of 20% of Argentina with a sustainable energy matrix.
本文的目的是:结合质量指标,结合模糊决策理论(FDM)、层次分析法(AHP)和进化粒子群优化(EPSO),提出一种新的“动态增长分配模型(DGAM)”。独创性:阿根廷能源转型的多目标优化(不确定性)研究不够。这个问题的组合方法没有发表,它有很好的,相对容易和快速的结果。研究方法:分析优化指标EROI、CO2、IC和RP,采用的方法DGAM、FDM、AHP和EPSO及其结果。主要发现:(1)核能允许向可再生能源过渡;(ii)需要拆除化石燃料并投资生物质能和风能;(iii) EROI取决于良好的负载系数、使用寿命和性能。对理论和实践的启示:它寻求阿根廷20%的最低可再生能源参与(RP)与可持续能源矩阵。
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引用次数: 2
Developing and prioritizing lean key performance indicators for plastering supply chains 制定和优先考虑抹灰供应链的精益关键绩效指标
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1590/0103-6513.20220054
Ana Carolina de Oliveira, W. Silva, D. Morais
Paper aims : The aim of this study was to propose a hybrid approach to develop and prioritize the indicators which should be used to monitor the development of plastering supply chains while using lean manufacturing practices. Originality : This approach proposed the integration of a Balanced Scorecard (BSC) - a multi-perspective tool for performance evaluation and strategic planning, and FITradeoff for the ranking problematic – a multicriteria method that features a robust axiomatic structure and uses partial information. Research method : The results showed that the approach provided a set of indicators to assist the company’s manager to monitor and improve the company’s competitiveness and sustainability. Main findings : The results showed that the approach was able to provide a set of KPIs to assist the company’s manager to monitor and improve the plastering company management in terms of competitiveness and sustainability. Implications for theory and practice : The results allowed evaluation of important issues for the strategic, economic, and environmental stability in complex business environments.
论文目的:本研究的目的是提出一种混合方法来开发和优先考虑指标,这些指标应用于监测抹灰供应链的发展,同时使用精益制造实践。独创性:该方法提出了平衡计分卡(BSC)的整合——一种用于绩效评估和战略规划的多角度工具,以及用于排名问题的fitradoff——一种多标准方法,具有强大的公理结构并使用部分信息。研究方法:结果表明,该方法提供了一套指标来帮助公司管理者监控和提高公司的竞争力和可持续性。主要发现:结果表明,该方法能够提供一套kpi,以协助公司经理在竞争力和可持续性方面监控和改善抹灰公司的管理。对理论和实践的启示:研究结果允许对复杂商业环境中战略、经济和环境稳定性的重要问题进行评估。
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引用次数: 4
Digital competences of the industrial engineer in industry 4.0 a systematic vision 工业4.0中工业工程师的数字化能力是一个系统的愿景
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1590/0103-6513.20220028
W. Quintero
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引用次数: 1
A prioritization approach based on VFT and AHP for group decision making: a case study in the military operations 基于VFT和AHP的群体决策优先排序方法:军事行动中的案例研究
Q3 Engineering Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1590/0103-6513.20210059
Ygor Logullo, Vinícius Bigogno-Costa, Amanda Cecília Simões da Silva, M. Belderrain
Paper Aims: This paper aims to develop an approach to support group decision making combining methods and tools to a holistic MCDA process. Originality : Authors have been using Value-Focused Thinking (VFT) for structuring problems with different MCDA methods, but there is a lack of a process that defines a clear transition from VFT to those methods. Here we propose a process to fill this gap. Research method : Rich Picture and VFT structure the problem and elicit objectives that become criteria within a decision hierarchy. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with ratings supports preference elicitation and sensitivity analysis in the judgment weights of decision-makers. Main findings : VFT is effective for eliciting the decision structure to AHP; using weight distribution of stakeholders may affect the results, and the multimethodology approach developed here can deal with group decision making. Implications for theory and practice : The approach developed is effective in complex environments (complex problems and multiple stakeholders) because it focuses on values and defines a process to bring those values into a multicriteria method. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis with the judgment weights of the different stakeholders may be useful in negotiation.
论文目的:本文旨在发展一种支持群体决策的方法,将方法和工具结合到一个整体的MCDA过程中。原创性:作者一直在使用价值聚焦思维(Value-Focused Thinking, VFT)来用不同的MCDA方法构建问题,但缺乏一个过程来定义从价值聚焦思维到这些方法的清晰过渡。在这里,我们提出了一个填补这一空白的过程。研究方法:富图像和VFT构建问题并引出目标,这些目标成为决策层次中的标准。带评级的层次分析法(AHP)支持决策者判断权重的偏好激发和敏感性分析。主要发现:VFT能有效地引出层次分析法的决策结构;使用利益相关者的权重分配可能会影响结果,这里开发的多方法方法可以处理群体决策。对理论和实践的启示:所开发的方法在复杂的环境(复杂的问题和多个利益相关者)中是有效的,因为它关注价值,并定义了一个将这些价值纳入多标准方法的过程。此外,利用不同利益相关者的判断权值进行敏感性分析可能有助于协商。
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引用次数: 6
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Production
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