Vienna Yearbook of Population Research最新文献

英文中文

Attending to history in climate change-demography research.

Q3 Social Sciences

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research

Pub Date : 2024-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-09-09 DOI: 10.1553/p-hzdz-jega

Emily Klancher Merchant, Kathryn Grace

Climate change is among the most urgent challenges of our time. While often considered a problem for the natural and physical sciences, the humanities and social sciences have made equally important interventions into research on the reciprocal relationship between humans and our climate. Because demography occupies the intersection of the natural and social sciences, and because it deals specifically with rates of change in social and natural processes, we believe it can make valuable contributions to the pressing imperatives of understanding and addressing climate change and mitigating the harms it is already visiting on the world's most vulnerable people. We also believe that climate change may afford demographers an opportunity to expand our capacity to think about time and space at finer scales, and to examine the relationships among the core demographic processes - mortality, fertility and migration - which have typically been considered in isolation from one another. Yet responsibly leveraging climate change to advance demography, and leveraging demography to advance climate science and policy, require a cognizance of history that will assist demographers and those who use our analyses in avoiding the replication of past harms and, we hope, the invention of new ones. Understanding the history of demography and of population-environment thought more broadly can help us challenge assumptions that have not served science or policy well in the past - such as the assumption that larger or faster-growing populations necessarily put more pressure on the environment, independent of structural conditions - and consider alternative theoretical framings that might lead to better scientific models and policy solutions.

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引用次数: 0

Low, but not too low, fertility can represent a positive development 生育率低，但不是太低，可以代表一种积极的发展

Q3 Social Sciences

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research

Pub Date : 2023-08-09 DOI: 10.1553/p-cmbb-hheg

V. Skirbekk

The public discourse about the ongoing fertility decline and the spread of low fertility, and the consequences thereof, is often unscientific and emotionally charged. As I argue in my book, Decline and Prosper! (Skirbekk, 2022), low fertility per se does not pose a major societal threat – and it is also accompanied by a number of benefits. In this article, I summarize my main points: namely, that i) the negative consequences of low fertility are often exaggerated and based on false assumptions; ii) low fertility is driven by many different, interacting factors, and is the byproduct or the cause of many positive societal developments; iii) low fertility is here to stay; and iv) societies urgently need to adapt to a world with fewer children. Fertility decline is self-perpetuating: once lowfertility has become the normin one generation, the fertility level is much less likely to increase in subsequent generations. At the same time, no plausible level of migration would be enough to meaningfully alter population aging in the long term. If, however, societies make the right choices, low fertility can enable humans to live more sustainably well into the future, and can stimulate further positive developments in the human condition.

公众对生育率持续下降和低生育率蔓延及其后果的讨论，往往是不科学的，而且充满感情色彩。正如我在《衰落与繁荣!》(Skirbekk, 2022)，低生育率本身并不构成重大的社会威胁，而且还伴随着一些好处。在这篇文章中，我总结了我的主要观点:即，I)低生育率的负面后果往往被夸大，并基于错误的假设;低生育率是由许多不同的、相互作用的因素驱动的，是许多积极的社会发展的副产品或原因;低生育率将持续下去;第四，社会迫切需要适应一个儿童越来越少的世界。生育率的下降是自我延续的:一旦低生育率在某一代人中成为常态，那么在接下来的几代人中，生育率水平提高的可能性就小得多。与此同时，从长远来看，任何合理的移民水平都不足以有意义地改变人口老龄化。然而，如果社会做出正确的选择，低生育率可以使人类在未来更可持续地生活，并可以刺激人类状况的进一步积极发展。

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引用次数: 0

Implementing youth-oriented policies: A remedy for depopulation in rural regions? 实施青年导向政策:解决农村人口减少问题的良方?

Q3 Social Sciences

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research

Pub Date : 2023-06-07 DOI: 10.1553/p-2j6h-94ja

Martina Schorn

The depopulation of rural areas has received increasing attention in recent years, both in scientific discourses and in policy-making. One main factor contributing to this rural shrinkage is the out-migration of the rural population. In particular, young and well-educated people have been leaving rural areas and moving to urban agglomerations. While the drivers as well as the consequences of out-migration have been well researched, less is known about measures to counteract youth outmigration as one of the main drivers of depopulation. Based on a comparative case study conducted in four rural regions affected by youth out-migration in Austria and Germany, this paper discusses policy measures that are specifically targeted at influencing young people’s migration aspirations. In addition, the effects of these measures on rural youth migration are analysed. After implementing measures that take the needs of young people into consideration, all four case study regions started to experience a decrease in their negative youth migration balance. This was mainly due to an increase in in-migration, while youth out-migration rates remained stable. However, these developments follow the general trend of rural youth migration in Austria and Germany in recent years. Thus, more research is needed to evaluate the actual impact of youth-oriented measures. This paper introduces the “youth-oriented regional development” approach, and highlights perspectives for future research on policies aimed at mitigating the challenges facing rural regions that are experiencing depopulation.

近年来，农村地区的人口减少问题在科学论述和决策中都受到越来越多的关注。造成农村人口减少的一个主要因素是农村人口向外迁移。特别是，受过良好教育的年轻人正在离开农村地区，向城市群迁移。虽然外迁的驱动因素和后果已经得到了很好的研究，但对作为人口减少主要驱动因素之一的青年外迁的抵消措施知之甚少。本文通过对奥地利和德国四个受青年外迁影响的农村地区进行的比较案例研究，探讨了专门针对影响青年移民愿望的政策措施。此外，还分析了这些措施对农村青年迁移的影响。在实施了考虑到年轻人需求的措施后，所有四个案例研究区域的青年移民负平衡开始下降。这主要是由于移徙增加，而青年移徙率保持稳定。然而，这些发展符合近年来奥地利和德国农村青年移民的总趋势。因此，需要更多的研究来评估面向青年的措施的实际影响。本文介绍了“以青年为导向的区域发展”方法，并强调了未来研究旨在缓解正在经历人口减少的农村地区所面临挑战的政策的前景。

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引用次数: 0

Depopulation in Moldova: The main challenge in the context of extremly high emigration 摩尔多瓦人口减少：移民人数极高背景下的主要挑战

Q3 Social Sciences

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research

Pub Date : 2023-03-30 DOI: 10.1553/p-ke2z-76zz

Olga Gagauz, Tatiana Tabac, I. Pahomii

In Moldova, there has been a long-term decline in the population, mainly due to high levels of emigration. The article presents an analysis of population dynamics in Moldova over the last three decades, and estimates the contributions of fertility, mortality and migration to this process. Using population censuses, data on the population with usual residence, vital statistics and data on Moldovan immigrants from the host countries’ statistical institutes,we estimate population changes between 1991–2021, and present demographic projections up to 2040. The results show that migration outflows account for more than 90% of the depopulation trend, with high levels of premature mortality accelerating the natural decline. The fall in births is associated with a decrease in the reproductive-age population. The total fertility rate has been decreasing gradually, while the cohort fertility rates have not fallen below 1.75 live births per woman. Past migration and low fertility are projected to result in long-term population decline. Demographic ageing is expected to increase. While population decline cannot be stopped, its scale can be limited through reductions in emigration and mortality. This study on population decline in Moldova helps to complete the demographic picture of Europe in the 20th century and into the 21st century.

在摩尔多瓦，人口长期下降，主要是由于大量移民。本文对摩尔多瓦过去三十年的人口动态进行了分析，并估计了生育率、死亡率和移民对这一进程的贡献。利用人口普查、常住人口数据、人口动态统计数据以及东道国统计机构提供的摩尔多瓦移民数据，我们估计了1991年至2021年期间的人口变化，并给出了截至2040年的人口预测。结果表明，人口外流占人口减少趋势的90%以上，高水平的过早死亡率加速了人口的自然下降。出生率的下降与育龄人口的减少有关。总生育率一直在逐渐下降，而队列生育率并未低于每名妇女1.75个活产。过去的移徙和低生育率预计将导致长期的人口下降。预计人口老龄化将加剧。虽然人口下降无法停止，但可以通过减少移徙和死亡率来限制其规模。这项关于摩尔多瓦人口下降的研究有助于完成20世纪和21世纪欧洲的人口状况。

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引用次数: 0

How much would reduced emigration mitigate ageing in Norway? 减少移民会在多大程度上缓解挪威的老龄化？

Q3 Social Sciences

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research

Pub Date : 2023-03-23 DOI: 10.1553/p-g5fe-hafz

Marianne Tønnessen, A. Syse

Population ageing is a topic of great concern in many countries. To counteract the negative effects of ageing, increased fertility or immigration are often proposed as demographic remedies. Changed emigration is, however, rarely mentioned. We explore whether reduced emigration could mitigate ageing in a country like Norway. Using cohort-component methods, we create hypothetical future demographic scenarios with lower emigration rates, and we present (prospective) old-age dependency ratios, population growth and shares of immigrants. We also estimate howmuch fertility and immigrationwould have to change to yield the same effects. In different scenarios, emigration is reduced for the total population and for subgroups, while also taking into account that reduced emigration of natives will entail reduced return migration. Our results show that even a dramatic 50% decrease in annual emigration would mitigate ageing only slightly, by lowering the old-age dependency ratio in 2060 from 0.54 to 0.52. This corresponds to the anti-ageing effect of 15% higher fertility, or one-quarter extra child per woman.

人口老龄化是许多国家非常关注的问题。为了抵消老龄化的负面影响，人们经常提出增加生育率或移民作为人口补救措施。然而，很少提及改变后的移民。我们探讨在挪威这样的国家，减少移民是否可以缓解老龄化。使用队列组成方法，我们创建了移民率较低的假设未来人口情景，并提出了（预期的）老年抚养比、人口增长和移民比例。我们还估计了生育率和移民必须改变多少才能产生同样的影响。在不同的情况下，总人口和亚群体的移民数量都有所减少，同时也考虑到本地人移民数量的减少将导致返回移民的减少。我们的研究结果表明，即使年移民人数大幅减少50%，也只能通过将2060年的老年抚养比从0.54降低到0.52来略微缓解老龄化。这相当于生育率提高15%的抗衰老效果，即每个女性多生四分之一的孩子。

引用次数: 0

Population decline will likely become a global trend and benefit long-term human wellbeing 人口下降可能成为全球趋势，并有利于人类的长期福祉

Q3 Social Sciences

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research

Pub Date : 2023-03-17 DOI: 10.1553/p-3cp7-4e6b

W. Lutz

Summarising earlier publications, I draw a rather optimistic picture of the human future on this planet, if priority is given to universal education, and, in particular, to female education. The benefits of a greater focus on education range from a lower desired family size and empowerment to reach this goal, to better family health, to poverty reduction, to greater resilience, to expanded capacities to mitigate and adapt to climate change, and, ultimately, to the emergence of better institutions and social values that are less obsessed with material consumption and violent nationalism and more concerned with cooperation, care and wellbeing. I also show that extended periods of below replacement level fertility are beneficial for long-term human wellbeing, and that the human population is on the path to peaking during the second half of this century and then declining to 2–4 billion people by 2200. As this smaller population will be well-educated, they should be healthy and wealthy enough to be able to cope fairly successfully with the already unavoidable (moderate) effects of climate change.

在总结早期的出版物时，我对这个星球上的人类未来描绘了一幅相当乐观的画面，如果优先考虑普及教育，特别是女性教育。更多地关注教育的好处包括:减少理想的家庭规模，增强实现这一目标的权能，改善家庭健康，减少贫困，增强复原力，扩大减缓和适应气候变化的能力，并最终产生更好的机构和社会价值观，不那么痴迷于物质消费和暴力民族主义，而更多地关注合作、关怀和福祉。我还表明，长期低于更替水平的生育率有利于人类的长期福祉，而且人口将在本世纪下半叶达到峰值，然后在2200年下降到20 - 40亿人。由于这一小部分人口将受到良好的教育，他们应该足够健康和富有，能够相当成功地应对已经不可避免的(适度)气候变化的影响。

引用次数: 0

Neighbourhood effects and determinants of population changes in Italy: A spatial perspective 意大利人口变化的邻里效应和决定因素：空间视角

Q3 Social Sciences

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research

Pub Date : 2023-03-14 DOI: 10.1553/p-5dfz-c44a

F. Benassi, A. Busetta, G. Gallo, M. Stranges

Population trends in Italy are strongly spatially differentiated, with some munic- ipalities showing a systematic loss of population, and others showing an equally continuous demographic increase. Here, we focus our attention on the spatial dimension of population change, looking at how different socio-economic and demographic dimensions affect population changes, as well as their spatial effects. After performing a preliminary descriptive analysis of the trends of population growth and decline in Italy over the last 40 years and the relevant demographic components, we used a spatial Durbin model (SDM) to investigate the potential existence of a diffusion process and the determinants of the average annual growth rate between 2011 and 2019 at the municipal level. The spatial dimension and local heterogeneities in Italy were found to be highly relevant in the analysis of population decline. Moreover, we examined the relationship between demographic, social and economic factors and the demographic growth/decline of municipalities in the subsequent 10 years. Among the different covariates included in the model, the demographic composition of the population, the female activity rate, the youth employment rate and the presence/absence of a school proved to be strongly related to population growth and decline in Italian municipalities.

意大利的人口趋势在空间上有很大的差异，一些市镇显示出人口的系统性减少，而另一些市镇则显示出同样持续的人口增长。在这里，我们将注意力集中在人口变化的空间维度上，研究不同的社会经济和人口维度如何影响人口变化及其空间效应。在对意大利过去40年的人口增长和下降趋势以及相关人口构成进行了初步描述性分析后，我们使用空间Durbin模型（SDM）来调查2011年至2019年市级平均年增长率的潜在存在和决定因素。意大利的空间维度和地方异质性被发现与人口下降的分析高度相关。此外，我们研究了人口、社会和经济因素与随后10年城市人口增长/下降之间的关系。在模型中包含的不同协变量中，人口的人口构成、女性活动率、青年就业率和学校的存在/不存在被证明与意大利城市的人口增长和下降密切相关。

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引用次数: 1

The triple burden of depopulation in Ukraine: examining perceptions of population decline 乌克兰人口减少的三重负担：考察对人口下降的看法

Q3 Social Sciences

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research

Pub Date : 2023-03-09 DOI: 10.1553/p-azcj-d4f4

Brienna Perelli-Harris, Y. Hilevych

In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, leading to severe population loss as millions exited the country and casualties mounted. However, population decline in Ukraine had been occurring for decades due to the triple burden of depopulation: low fertility, high mortality and substantial emigration. Ukraine had also already experienced years of armed conflict and large-scale displacement after the Russian-backed separatist movement, which started in 2014. This study investigates perspectives on depopulation using online focus groups conducted in July 2021, seven months before the current invasion. We compared discussions in eastern Ukraine, including in rural villages, the IDP-receiving city of Mariupol, the large city of Kharkiv and occupied Donetsk. Participants observed that cities were growing at the expense of rural areas. The situation in Donetsk was bleak due to mass emigration, but some participants pointed to a recent increase in births. Overall, the participants acknowledged the triple burden of depopulation in Ukraine, and the consequences of population decline, such as a shrinking labour force and rapid ageing.

2022年2月，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，导致数百万人离开该国，造成严重的人口损失，伤亡人数也在增加。然而，由于人口减少的三重负担:低生育率、高死亡率和大量移民，乌克兰的人口下降已经持续了几十年。自2014年俄罗斯支持的分离主义运动开始以来，乌克兰已经经历了多年的武装冲突和大规模流离失所。这项研究调查了2021年7月进行的在线焦点小组对人口减少的看法，也就是目前入侵的七个月前。我们比较了乌克兰东部的讨论，包括农村、接收国内流离失所者的城市马里乌波尔、哈尔科夫大城市和被占领的顿涅茨克。与会者指出，城市的发展是以牺牲农村地区为代价的。由于大量移民，顿涅茨克的形势黯淡，但一些与会者指出，最近出生率有所增加。总的来说，与会者承认乌克兰人口减少的三重负担，以及人口减少的后果，例如劳动力减少和迅速老龄化。

引用次数: 0

Is Spanish depopulation irreversible? Recent demographic and spatial changes in small municipalities 西班牙人口减少是不可逆转的吗?小城市最近的人口和空间变化

Q3 Social Sciences

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research

Pub Date : 2023-03-09 DOI: 10.1553/p-9fd9-h7g5

Fernando Gil-Alonso, Jordi Bayona‐i‐Carrasco, Isabel Pujadas-Rúbies

Many small Spanish municipalities (those with less than 2000 inhabitants) experienced population growth during the first decade of the 21st century due to a large influx of foreign immigrants. However, the Great Recession put an end to this trend. The first aim of this paper is to analyse the demographic impact of the new phase of economic growth – known as the “post-crisis” period (2014–2020) – on small Spanish municipalities. The second aim is to carry out an initial analysis of the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic crisis on the growth of these municipalities. The results of a nine-category typology show that during the post-crisis period, the vast majority of villages continued to depopulate, while a minority gained population or had stagnant population figures. The Covid-19 pandemic represented a turning point, with small municipalities as a whole starting to grow again. However, the population did not increase in all categories of villages or in all regions of rural Spain. The results for both periods (post-crisis and Covid-19 pandemic) highlight the growing importance of migration to demographic change in the smallest municipalities.

在21世纪的头十年，由于外国移民的大量涌入，许多西班牙小城市（居民少于2000人）的人口出现了增长。然而，大衰退结束了这一趋势。本文的第一个目的是分析被称为“后危机”时期（2014-2020）的新经济增长阶段对西班牙小城市的人口影响。第二个目标是对新冠肺炎大流行危机对这些城市增长的影响进行初步分析。九类类型的结果表明，在后危机时期，绝大多数村庄的人口继续减少，而少数村庄的人口增加或人口数字停滞不前。新冠肺炎大流行代表了一个转折点，小城市作为一个整体开始再次增长。然而，西班牙农村的所有类别的村庄或所有地区的人口都没有增加。这两个时期（危机后和新冠肺炎大流行）的结果突出表明，移民对最小城市人口变化的重要性日益增加。

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引用次数: 0

Revisiting the impact of urban shrinkage on residential segregation in European cities 重新审视城市收缩对欧洲城市居住隔离的影响

Q3 Social Sciences

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research

Pub Date : 2023-03-09 DOI: 10.1553/p-dbj3-mjda

David Huntington

A nascent body of scholarship suggests that the depopulation of urban areas may catalyse residential segregation between different population groups and spatial concentrations of vulnerable groups. Based on a systematic literature review, this article summarises peer-reviewed articles and case studies on the role of urban shrinkage in shaping residential segregation in the context of European cities, and highlights methodological shortcomings and empirical knowledge gaps, thereby contributing to our understanding of the mechanisms through which population dynamics influence urban inequalities and their relevance for planning and policy. In sum, studies verifying the frequently assumed positive relationship between urban population loss and widening segregation remain few and far between. Moreover, mismatches between spatial and temporal scales, in addition to the indicators and metrics used in past studies, have hampered not only comparisons of how these dynamics play out in different contexts, but also the integration of spatial justice perspectives into urban planning.

一项新的学术研究表明，城市地区的人口减少可能催化不同人口群体之间的居住隔离和弱势群体的空间集中。在系统文献综述的基础上，本文总结了欧洲城市背景下城市收缩在形成居住隔离中的作用的同行评审文章和案例研究，并强调了方法上的缺陷和经验知识缺口，从而有助于我们理解人口动态影响城市不平等的机制及其与规划和政策的相关性。总而言之，证实经常假定的城市人口流失与日益扩大的隔离之间的积极关系的研究仍然很少。此外，空间尺度和时间尺度之间的不匹配，以及过去研究中使用的指标和度量标准，不仅阻碍了对这些动态在不同背景下如何发挥作用的比较，而且阻碍了将空间正义视角整合到城市规划中。

引用次数: 0

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