Pub Date : 2022-03-16DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.3
E. Lima, Camila F. Soares, José H. C. Monteiro da Silva
Since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, Brazil has been among the countries that have been heavily affected by this novel disease. From March 2020 onwards, records of deaths in Brazil increased as the number of COVID-19 infections skyrocketed. Consequently, many studies have tried to explain how this illness has affected the overall number of deaths since the start of the pandemic, and have examined the question of whether mortality related to COVID-19 has led to reductions in life expectancy. However, at the time of writing, there have been few empirical analyses of the effects of the pandemic on births. In this study, we sought to investigate whether the COVID-19 pandemic influenced the recent birth counts of six large cities in Brazil by assessing the most up-to-date vital statistics data that are available. Using data from the municipal health departments of these cities, we compared the number of monthly births from October–December 2020 and January–March 2021 with the number of new-borns in similar months and years before the pandemic. Our results show that there was a strong decline in the number of births in some of the cities analysed, and that most of the reductions occurred among women around the age of 30 years old. It appears that because of the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic, women have been postponing or foregoing the realisation of their fertility intentions, which may have led to a temporary baby bust in some cities of Brazil. However, the COVID-19 pandemic was not found to be associated with faster reductions in births in all Brazilian cities. Indeed, in the cities of Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte, the decreasing trend in birth counts appears to have slowed down, or even reversed.
{"title":"Rapid changes in birth counts in Brazilian major cities during the COVID-19 pandemic","authors":"E. Lima, Camila F. Soares, José H. C. Monteiro da Silva","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.3","url":null,"abstract":"Since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, Brazil has been among the countries that have been heavily affected by this novel disease. From March 2020 onwards, records of deaths in Brazil increased as the number of COVID-19 infections skyrocketed. Consequently, many studies have tried to explain how this illness has affected the overall number of deaths since the start of the pandemic, and have examined the question of whether mortality related to COVID-19 has led to reductions in life expectancy. However, at the time of writing, there have been few empirical analyses of the effects of the pandemic on births. In this study, we sought to investigate whether the COVID-19 pandemic influenced the recent birth counts of six large cities in Brazil by assessing the most up-to-date vital statistics data that are available. Using data from the municipal health departments of these cities, we compared the number of monthly births from October–December 2020 and January–March 2021 with the number of new-borns in similar months and years before the pandemic. Our results show that there was a strong decline in the number of births in some of the cities analysed, and that most of the reductions occurred among women around the age of 30 years old. It appears that because of the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic, women have been postponing or foregoing the realisation of their fertility intentions, which may have led to a temporary baby bust in some cities of Brazil. However, the COVID-19 pandemic was not found to be associated with faster reductions in births in all Brazilian cities. Indeed, in the cities of Rio de Janeiro and Belo Horizonte, the decreasing trend in birth counts appears to have slowed down, or even reversed.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43710413","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-03-16DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2022.int01
P. Di Giulio, A. Goujon, G. Marois
The introduction to the 2022 Special Issue presents the 20 articles that discuss the demographic aspects and the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. It synthesises the main findings from the contributions, emphasising the demographic, social and economic characteristics that influenced the spread of infections and determined the number of deaths. We highlight the specific focus on measurement issues, often with a comparative framework across several countries, and at the regional level as well, both within and beyond Europe. We also summarise the impact of the measures imposed to contain the spread of the virus, such as lockdowns. Moreover, we explore the impact of the pandemic on the quality of relationships, the intention and the motivation to have children, and realised fertility. In addition, we present the authors’ broader reflections on the risks faced by different communities of individuals, and the potential consequences for their life trajectories, including in relation to other current risks that overlap with the pandemic (recent armed conflicts), and for the achievability of the Sustainable Development Goals themselves.
{"title":"The population aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic in 20 papers: an introduction","authors":"P. Di Giulio, A. Goujon, G. Marois","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2022.int01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.int01","url":null,"abstract":"The introduction to the 2022 Special Issue presents the 20 articles that discuss the demographic aspects and the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. It synthesises the main findings from the contributions, emphasising the demographic, social and economic characteristics that influenced the spread of infections and determined the number of deaths. We highlight the specific focus on measurement issues, often with a comparative framework across several countries, and at the regional level as well, both within and beyond Europe. We also summarise the impact of the measures imposed to contain the spread of the virus, such as lockdowns. Moreover, we explore the impact of the pandemic on the quality of relationships, the intention and the motivation to have children, and realised fertility. In addition, we present the authors’ broader reflections on the risks faced by different communities of individuals, and the potential consequences for their life trajectories, including in relation to other current risks that overlap with the pandemic (recent armed conflicts), and for the achievability of the Sustainable Development Goals themselves.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42316743","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-26DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.2
M. Sánchez-Romero
An important aspect of the current COVID-19 crisis is that not all age groups are equally affected by the pandemic. To account for the generational impact of COVID- 19, a dynamic overlapping generations model with realistic demography, human capital and NTAs is constructed. The COVID-19 crisis is modelled through two unexpected and temporary negative shocks: an economic shock that reduces labour income, and a demographic shock that increases the mortality hazard rates of those infected. The model is applied to 12 countries for which full NTA data are available. Results are presented for two extreme fiscal policies: one in which governments compensate workers for 0% (without fiscal support) of their total labour income losses due to the pandemic, and another in which governments compensate workers for 100% (with fiscal support) of these losses. In addition, I analyse the impact of these policies on public debt. The results show that COVID-19 is affecting the financial situations of people aged 25 to 64 and their children more than those of older people. By compensating workers for their income losses, the economic impact of COVID-19 has been more evenly distributed across cohorts, reducing the burden on people aged zero to 64, and increasing the burden on people aged 65 and older. Moreover, the simulation results show that a 1% decline in labour income leads to an average increase in the debt-to-total labour income ratio of between 1.2% (without fiscal policy) and 1.6% (with fiscal policy).
{"title":"Assessing the generational impact of COVID-19 using National Transfer Accounts (NTAs)","authors":"M. Sánchez-Romero","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.2","url":null,"abstract":"An important aspect of the current COVID-19 crisis is that not all age groups are equally affected by the pandemic. To account for the generational impact of COVID- 19, a dynamic overlapping generations model with realistic demography, human capital and NTAs is constructed. The COVID-19 crisis is modelled through two unexpected and temporary negative shocks: an economic shock that reduces labour income, and a demographic shock that increases the mortality hazard rates of those infected. The model is applied to 12 countries for which full NTA data are available. Results are presented for two extreme fiscal policies: one in which governments compensate workers for 0% (without fiscal support) of their total labour income losses due to the pandemic, and another in which governments compensate workers for 100% (with fiscal support) of these losses. In addition, I analyse the impact of these policies on public debt. The results show that COVID-19 is affecting the financial situations of people aged 25 to 64 and their children more than those of older people. By compensating workers for their income losses, the economic impact of COVID-19 has been more evenly distributed across cohorts, reducing the burden on people aged zero to 64, and increasing the burden on people aged 65 and older. Moreover, the simulation results show that a 1% decline in labour income leads to an average increase in the debt-to-total labour income ratio of between 1.2% (without fiscal policy) and 1.6% (with fiscal policy).","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42223857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-26DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res2.4
Claudia Masferrer, Oscar Rodríguez Chávez
Studies on the symbiosis of crime and COVID-19 have analyzed governmentmandated lockdown effects. However, it is unknown to what extent previous crime rates determined a larger and more mortal spread of the pandemic. We study how homicides and robberies in the pre-pandemic year of 2019 are associated with 2020 mortality rates due to COVID-19 in urban municipalities in Mexico. Considering sex differentials in health, exposure to the virus and experiences of violence, we study whether gender differences in mortality exist in 2020. Using publicly available data on deaths due to COVID-19 provided by the Mexican Secretariat of Health, along with a series of indicators to characterize local pre-pandemic conditions of urban municipalities, we estimate a series of ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models on age-standardized crude death rates (ASCDR) by sex. Findings show that homicides—a proxy for criminal violence that might encourage people to stay home—show significant negative associations with mortality rates. Comparatively, robberies—a proxy of local violence and safety—were positively associated with mortality rates for both sexes. Sex differences in the determinants of ASCDR are discussed.
{"title":"Are homicides and robberies associated with mortality due to COVID-19? Lessons from Urban Mexico","authors":"Claudia Masferrer, Oscar Rodríguez Chávez","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res2.4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res2.4","url":null,"abstract":"Studies on the symbiosis of crime and COVID-19 have analyzed governmentmandated lockdown effects. However, it is unknown to what extent previous crime rates determined a larger and more mortal spread of the pandemic. We study how homicides and robberies in the pre-pandemic year of 2019 are associated with 2020 mortality rates due to COVID-19 in urban municipalities in Mexico. Considering sex differentials in health, exposure to the virus and experiences of violence, we study whether gender differences in mortality exist in 2020. Using publicly available data on deaths due to COVID-19 provided by the Mexican Secretariat of Health, along with a series of indicators to characterize local pre-pandemic conditions of urban municipalities, we estimate a series of ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models on age-standardized crude death rates (ASCDR) by sex. Findings show that homicides—a proxy for criminal violence that might encourage people to stay home—show significant negative associations with mortality rates. Comparatively, robberies—a proxy of local violence and safety—were positively associated with mortality rates for both sexes. Sex differences in the determinants of ASCDR are discussed.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48936329","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-14DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.1
Ramon Bauer, Markus Speringer, P. Frühwirt, R. Seidl, F. Trautinger
In Austria, the first confirmed COVID-19 death occurred in early March 2020. Since then, the question as to whether and, if so, to what extent the COVID-19 pandemic has increased overall mortality has been raised in the public and academic discourse. In an effort to answer this question, Statistics Vienna (City of Vienna, Department for Economic Affairs, Labour and Statistics) has evaluated the weekly mortality trends in Vienna, and compared them to the trends in other Austrian provinces. For our analysis, we draw on data from Statistics Austria and the Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety (AGES), which are published along with data on the actual and the expected weekly numbers of deaths via the Vienna Mortality Monitoring website. Based on the definition of excess mortality as the actual number of reported deaths from all causes minus the expected number of deaths, we calculate the weekly prediction intervals of the expected number of deaths for two age groups (0 to 64 years and 65 years and older). The temporal scope of the analysis covers not only the current COVID-19 pandemic, but also previous flu seasons and summer heat waves. The results show the actual weekly numbers of deaths and the corresponding prediction intervals for Vienna and the other Austrian provinces since 2007. Our analysis underlines the importance of comparing time series of COVID-19-related excess deaths at the sub-national level in order to highlight within-country heterogeneities.
{"title":"Assessing excess mortality in Vienna and Austria after the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic","authors":"Ramon Bauer, Markus Speringer, P. Frühwirt, R. Seidl, F. Trautinger","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.1","url":null,"abstract":"In Austria, the first confirmed COVID-19 death occurred in early March 2020. Since then, the question as to whether and, if so, to what extent the COVID-19 pandemic has increased overall mortality has been raised in the public and academic discourse. In an effort to answer this question, Statistics Vienna (City of Vienna, Department for Economic Affairs, Labour and Statistics) has evaluated the weekly mortality trends in Vienna, and compared them to the trends in other Austrian provinces. For our analysis, we draw on data from Statistics Austria and the Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety (AGES), which are published along with data on the actual and the expected weekly numbers of deaths via the Vienna Mortality Monitoring website. Based on the definition of excess mortality as the actual number of reported deaths from all causes minus the expected number of deaths, we calculate the weekly prediction intervals of the expected number of deaths for two age groups (0 to 64 years and 65 years and older). The temporal scope of the analysis covers not only the current COVID-19 pandemic, but also previous flu seasons and summer heat waves. The results show the actual weekly numbers of deaths and the corresponding prediction intervals for Vienna and the other Austrian provinces since 2007. Our analysis underlines the importance of comparing time series of COVID-19-related excess deaths at the sub-national level in order to highlight within-country heterogeneities.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48683973","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.6
Nicole Mun Sim Lai
In many countries, deaths from COVID-19 were highly concentrated among care home residents during the initial wave of the pandemic. Care home residents may have faced higher risks of exposure and infection than the general population of older people. Once infected, residents may have been more likely to succumb to this disease as they were both older and frailer than the general population of older people. This study presents a quantified assessment of these factors in Belgium and in England and Wales. In doing so, this paper applies the Das Gupta decomposition method to explain the contributions of these three factors to the observed differences in mortality rates from COVID-19 between older people residing in care homes and older people living at home. According to these estimates, older people residing in care homes were 36 times more likely to die in Belgium and were 23 times more likely to die in England and Wales from COVID-19 than older people living at home during the initial wave of the pandemic. Decomposition of the differences in the mortality rates of these populations in Belgium and in England and Wales showed that the two key determinants were the greater underlying frailty of older people in care homes (accounting for 46% of the differences in Belgium and 66% of the differences in England and Wales) and the higher infection prevalence of older people in care homes (accounting for 40% of the differences in Belgium and 26% of the differences in England and Wales).
{"title":"Why did care home residents face an elevated risk of death from COVID-19? A demographic perspective using data from Belgium and from England and Wales","authors":"Nicole Mun Sim Lai","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.6","url":null,"abstract":"In many countries, deaths from COVID-19 were highly concentrated among care home residents during the initial wave of the pandemic. Care home residents may have faced higher risks of exposure and infection than the general population of older people. Once infected, residents may have been more likely to succumb to this disease as they were both older and frailer than the general population of older people. This study presents a quantified assessment of these factors in Belgium and in England and Wales. In doing so, this paper applies the Das Gupta decomposition method to explain the contributions of these three factors to the observed differences in mortality rates from COVID-19 between older people residing in care homes and older people living at home. According to these estimates, older people residing in care homes were 36 times more likely to die in Belgium and were 23 times more likely to die in England and Wales from COVID-19 than older people living at home during the initial wave of the pandemic. Decomposition of the differences in the mortality rates of these populations in Belgium and in England and Wales showed that the two key determinants were the greater underlying frailty of older people in care homes (accounting for 46% of the differences in Belgium and 66% of the differences in England and Wales) and the higher infection prevalence of older people in care homes (accounting for 40% of the differences in Belgium and 26% of the differences in England and Wales).","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49551359","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01Epub Date: 2022-04-12DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.7
Wendy D Manning, Karen Benjamin Guzzo, Monica A Longmore, Peggy C Giordano
While current evidence indicates that the United States did not experience a baby boom during the pandemic, few empirical studies have considered the underlying rationale for the American baby bust. Relying on data collected during the pandemic (n = 574), we find that pandemic-related subjective assessments (e.g., self-reported stress, fear of COVID-19 and relationship struggles) and not economic indicators (e.g., employment status, income level) were related to levels of fertility motivations among individuals in relationships. Analysis of within-person changes in fertility motivations shows that shifts in the number of children, increases in mental health issues and increases in relationship uncertainty, rather than changes in economic circumstances, were associated with short-term assessments of the importance of avoiding a pregnancy. We argue for broadening conceptual frameworks of fertility motivations by moving beyond a focus on economic factors to include a cognitive schema that takes subjective concerns into account.
{"title":"Cognitive schemas and fertility motivations in the U.S. during the COVID-19 pandemic.","authors":"Wendy D Manning, Karen Benjamin Guzzo, Monica A Longmore, Peggy C Giordano","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.7","DOIUrl":"10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res1.7","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>While current evidence indicates that the United States did not experience a baby boom during the pandemic, few empirical studies have considered the underlying rationale for the American baby bust. Relying on data collected during the pandemic (<i>n</i> = 574), we find that pandemic-related subjective assessments (e.g., self-reported stress, fear of COVID-19 and relationship struggles) and not economic indicators (e.g., employment status, income level) were related to levels of fertility motivations among individuals in relationships. Analysis of within-person changes in fertility motivations shows that shifts in the number of children, increases in mental health issues and increases in relationship uncertainty, rather than changes in economic circumstances, were associated with short-term assessments of the importance of avoiding a pregnancy. We argue for broadening conceptual frameworks of fertility motivations by moving beyond a focus on economic factors to include a cognitive schema that takes subjective concerns into account.</p>","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":"20 ","pages":"261-284"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9949748/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9288686","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.4
A. Backhaus
The COVID-19 pandemic and the public health measures adopted in response to it have triggered plenty of speculation about the potential impact on fertility in different regions of the globe. This study provides evidence on the fertility response in four sub-Saharan African countries during the first year of the pandemic. Using harmonized data on women of childbearing age from the Performance Monitoring for Action (PMA) data series, this study compares pregnancy rates at the turn of the year 2020/21 to a pre-pandemic baseline. There is no indication of a general increase in pregnancy rates after the beginning of the pandemic. In some of the sample countries, pregnancy rates during this phase of the COVID-19 pandemic instead fell significantly among the youngest and the least educated women of childbearing age, respectively. The findings also indicate that over this period, rates of modern contraceptive usage rose significantly among the surveyed female populations in several sample countries.
{"title":"Pregnancies and contraceptive use in four African countries during the COVID-19 pandemic","authors":"A. Backhaus","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.4","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic and the public health measures adopted in response to it have triggered plenty of speculation about the potential impact on fertility in different regions of the globe. This study provides evidence on the fertility response in four sub-Saharan African countries during the first year of the pandemic. Using harmonized data on women of childbearing age from the Performance Monitoring for Action (PMA) data series, this study compares pregnancy rates at the turn of the year 2020/21 to a pre-pandemic baseline. There is no indication of a general increase in pregnancy rates after the beginning of the pandemic. In some of the sample countries, pregnancy rates during this phase of the COVID-19 pandemic instead fell significantly among the youngest and the least educated women of childbearing age, respectively. The findings also indicate that over this period, rates of modern contraceptive usage rose significantly among the surveyed female populations in several sample countries.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45355164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-01DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.7
V. Rousson, F. Paccaud, Isabella Locatelli
The COVID-19 pandemic that reached Europe in 2020 has often been compared to the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918. In this article, we compare the two pandemics in terms of their respective impacts on the loss of life expectancy at birth in six European countries (France, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland) by estimating life expectancy in 2020 using Eurostat data. We found that the loss of life expectancy at birth was up to 20 times larger between 1917 and 1918 than between 2019 and 2020. A decomposition of these losses clearly shows that in all six countries, the main contributors were older age groups in 2020 and younger age groups in 1918. These observations are consistent with evidence indicating that most COVID-19 fatalities were among the elderly, while a majority of Spanish flu fatalities were among the young.
{"title":"Comparing the loss of life expectancy at birth during the 2020 and 1918 pandemics in six European countries","authors":"V. Rousson, F. Paccaud, Isabella Locatelli","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2022.dat.7","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic that reached Europe in 2020 has often been compared to the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918. In this article, we compare the two pandemics in terms of their respective impacts on the loss of life expectancy at birth in six European countries (France, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland) by estimating life expectancy in 2020 using Eurostat data. We found that the loss of life expectancy at birth was up to 20 times larger between 1917 and 1918 than between 2019 and 2020. A decomposition of these losses clearly shows that in all six countries, the main contributors were older age groups in 2020 and younger age groups in 1918. These observations are consistent with evidence indicating that most COVID-19 fatalities were among the elderly, while a majority of Spanish flu fatalities were among the young.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45099101","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The reproduction number R is a key indicator to monitor the dynamics of Covid-19 and to assess the effect of control strategies that frequently have high social and economic costs. Despite having an analog in demography’s “net reproduction rate” that has been routinely computed for a century, demographers may not be familiar with the concept and measurement of R in the context of Covid-19. This article intends to be a primer for understanding and estimating R in demography. We show that R can be estimated as a ratio between the numbers of new cases today divided by the weighted average of cases in previous days. We present two alternative derivations for these weights based on how risks change over time: constant vs. exponential decay. We provide estimates of these weights and demonstrate their use in calculating R to trace the course of the first pandemic year in several countries.
{"title":"The mathematics of the reproduction number R for Covid-19: A primer for demographers","authors":"L. Rosero-Bixby, Tim Miller","doi":"10.31235/osf.io/u6ey9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/u6ey9","url":null,"abstract":"The reproduction number R is a key indicator to monitor the dynamics of Covid-19 and to assess the effect of control strategies that frequently have high social and economic costs. Despite having an analog in demography’s “net reproduction rate” that has been routinely computed for a century, demographers may not be familiar with the concept and measurement of R in the context of Covid-19. This article intends to be a primer for understanding and estimating R in demography. We show that R can be estimated as a ratio between the numbers of new cases today divided by the weighted average of cases in previous days. We present two alternative derivations for these weights based on how risks change over time: constant vs. exponential decay. We provide estimates of these weights and demonstrate their use in calculating R to trace the course of the first pandemic year in several countries.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48758898","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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