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Analyzing population ageing and intergenerational redistribution: NTA and AGENTA 人口老龄化与代际再分配分析:NTA与AGENTA
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2019s001
Ronald Lee, A. Mason
This special issue of the Vienna Yearbook contains chapters derived from the EUfunded AGENTA project, which uses and extends the methods of the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) project to shed light on the ways in which the families and governments of Europe draw on the earnings of the working-age population to support both children and the elderly. Before turning to the fascinating studies included in this Yearbook, we will provide some context regarding support systems, global demographic change, NTA, and AGENTA.
本期《维也纳年鉴》特刊包含来自欧盟资助的AGENTA项目的章节,该项目使用并扩展了国家转移账户(NTA)项目的方法,以揭示欧洲家庭和政府利用工作年龄人口的收入来支持儿童和老人的方式。在介绍本年鉴中包含的引人入胜的研究之前,我们将提供一些关于支持系统、全球人口变化、NTA和AGENTA的背景。
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引用次数: 2
Broadening demographic horizons: demographic studies beyond age and gender 拓宽人口视野:超越年龄和性别的人口研究
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2018s001
A. Prskawetz, W. Sanderson, S. Scherbov
Demography is generally defined as the scientific study of changes in the size and the structure of populations. While the meaning of population size is relatively clear, there are many different population structures that can be analyzed. Demography conventionally focuses on age and sex structures, and many of our core models are defined in terms of age and sex. But there are other important dimensions that are the subject of demographic analysis and modelling, such as place of residence, ethnicity/race, marital status, educational attainment, labor force participation status, and health status. Explicitly addressing the changing structures of populations along these broader demographic dimensions make demography more relevant for the rest of the world. Moreover, as these dimensions often represent important sources of population heterogeneity, studying them can improve our understanding of population dynamics in itself. In recent years, there have been exciting developments that have broadened the demographic perspective along these lines of multi-dimensionality, and that have contributed new methods to the demographer’s conventional tool kit. This volume of the Yearbook presents a selected set of papers that in one way or another challenge conventional ideas about how demographic studies are conceived and carried out. These papers cover concepts and developments related to multiregional, multistate, and probabilistic population forecasts; population projections by education and labor force status; and causal models of migration.
人口学通常被定义为研究人口规模和结构变化的科学。虽然人口规模的含义相对明确,但可以分析许多不同的人口结构。人口统计学传统上关注年龄和性别结构,我们的许多核心模型都是根据年龄和性别来定义的。但是,还有其他重要方面是人口分析和建模的主题,如居住地、民族/种族、婚姻状况、受教育程度、劳动力参与状况和健康状况。在这些更广泛的人口层面上明确处理人口结构的变化,使人口统计学与世界其他地区更加相关。此外,由于这些维度通常代表了人口异质性的重要来源,研究它们可以提高我们对人口动态本身的理解。近年来,有一些令人兴奋的发展,沿着这些多维线拓宽了人口统计学的视角,并为人口统计学家的传统工具包提供了新的方法。《年鉴》的这一卷精选了一组论文,这些论文以某种方式挑战了关于如何构思和开展人口研究的传统观念。这些论文涵盖了与多地区、多州和概率人口预测相关的概念和发展;按教育和劳动力状况进行人口预测;以及移民的因果模型。
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引用次数: 2
From intentions to births: paths of realisation in a multi-dimensional life course 从意向到出生:多维度生命历程中的实现路径
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2018s177
M. Testa, Francesco Rampazzo
The adult lives of women and men are shaped by a wide range of choices and events pertaining to different life domains. In the literature, however, pregnancy intentions are typically studied in isolation from other life course intentions. We investigate the correspondence of birth intentions and outcomes in a life course cross-domain perspective that includes partnership, education, work, and housing. Using longitudinal data from the Generations and Gender Surveys, we examine the matching processes of individuals' birth intentions with subsequent outcomes in Austria, Bulgaria, France, Hungary, and Lithuania. The results show that the intention to change residence is directly correlated with having a child among men and women living in a union, and that the intention to enter a partnership is correlated with childbearing among single men, but not among single women. Furthermore, we find that the intention to change jobs is inversely correlated with an intended childbirth, while it is directly correlated with an unintended childbirth. These findings suggest that the transition paths from birth intentions to birth outcomes should encompass a multi-dimensional life course perspective.
女性和男性的成年生活受到与不同生活领域有关的各种选择和事件的影响。然而,在文献中,怀孕意图通常与其他生命过程意图分开研究。我们从人生历程跨领域的角度考察了出生意向和结果的对应关系,包括伙伴关系、教育、工作和住房。利用代际和性别调查的纵向数据,我们研究了奥地利、保加利亚、法国、匈牙利和立陶宛的个人出生意图与随后结果的匹配过程。结果表明,同居男女的迁居意愿与生育子女直接相关,单身男性的迁居意愿与生育子女相关,而单身女性的迁居意愿与生育子女无关。此外,我们发现换工作的意愿与计划生育呈负相关,而与非计划生育直接相关。这些发现表明,从出生意图到出生结果的过渡路径应该包含一个多维的生命历程视角。
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引用次数: 6
Summary of ‘Demographic and human capital scenarios for the 21st century: 2018 assessment for 201 countries’ 《21世纪人口和人力资本情景:2018年201个国家评估》摘要
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1553/POPULATIONYEARBOOK2018S221
N. Gailey, W. Lutz
In 2016, the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) agreed to form a partnership, establishing the Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration (CEPAM). The work presented here summarises the first results published by CEPAM. The results reveal clear momentum towards population ageing, and how migration has limited ability to influence the population structure of the EU, especially in the long-run. On the other hand, boosting labour force participation can nullify expected rises in the dependency ratio from population ageing. Globally, the findings show the future of population growth and socio-economic development will be determined by the expansion of education, particularly among girls in Africa. Scenarios of either rapid or stalled development illustrate a large range of possible futures for world population by 2100.
2016年,欧盟委员会联合研究中心(JRC)和国际应用系统分析研究所(IIASA)同意建立伙伴关系,建立人口与移民专业知识中心(CEPAM)。这里介绍的工作总结了CEPAM发表的第一批结果。研究结果揭示了人口老龄化的明显势头,以及移民对欧盟人口结构的影响是如何有限的,尤其是从长远来看。另一方面,提高劳动力参与率可以抵消人口老龄化带来的抚养比预期上升。在全球范围内,调查结果表明,人口增长和社会经济发展的未来将取决于教育的扩大,特别是非洲女童教育的扩大。快速发展或停滞发展的情景说明了到2100年世界人口的各种可能的未来。
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引用次数: 1
Welfare state winners and losers in ageing societies 老龄化社会中福利国家的赢家和输家
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2019s009
M. Sánchez-Romero, Gemma Abio, Montserrat Botey, A. Prskawetz, Jože Sambt, Meritxell Solé Juvés, Guadalupe Souto, Lili Vargha, Concepció Patxot
In this paper, we analyse the impact of population ageing on the sustainability and the intergenerational fairness of public fiscal policy in three selected European countries (Austria, France, and Spain). We use NTA and NTTA data, and introduce these data into a large-scale general equilibrium OLG model with realistic assumptions regarding demographic trends and changes in population structure. The results for sustainability show a sharp increase in the share of public expenditure to GDP for the main programmes of the welfare state. In the three countries analysed, public policies (e.g. education, health care, and pension benefits) redistribute income from younger individuals to older individuals. Our findings indicate that these policies redistribute more resources to older individuals in Spain and fewer resources to older individuals in Austria. We consider the effects of several reform scenarios, including simulations in which the statutory retirement age is raised and the tax base for financing health care expenditures are changed. We also describe the consequences of the population having a fixed level of educational attainment.
在本文中,我们分析了人口老龄化对三个欧洲国家(奥地利、法国和西班牙)公共财政政策可持续性和代际公平性的影响。我们使用NTA和NTTA数据,并将这些数据引入大规模一般均衡OLG模型,并对人口趋势和人口结构变化进行现实假设。可持续性的结果表明,福利国家主要项目的公共支出占GDP的比例急剧上升。在所分析的三个国家中,公共政策(如教育、保健和养老金福利)将收入从年轻人重新分配给老年人。我们的研究结果表明,这些政策将更多的资源重新分配给西班牙的老年人,而将更少的资源重新分配给奥地利的老年人。我们考虑了几种改革方案的影响,包括法定退休年龄提高和为医疗支出融资的税基改变的模拟。我们还描述了人口受教育程度固定的后果。
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引用次数: 2
Probabilistic demographic forecasts 概率人口预测
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2018s025
N. Keilman
The Norwegian parliament (“Stortinget”) has decided to buy 52 new JSF jet fighters type F35. When the decision was taken, the price for one F35 was unknown because the plane was still under construction. Therefore, the Stortinget demanded a total cost forecast that had a 50% chance of being accurate. In 2012, the price estimate was NOK 61 billion (approximately EUR 6 billion). In addition, the Stortinget wanted to have a cost estimate that had an 85% chance of being accurate. This estimate was NOK 72 billion; see https://www.regjeringen.no/no/dokumenter/prop73-s-20112012/id676029/sec9, Section 2.4.4. Requesting a probabilistic cost forecast with a 50% or an 85% chance of being accurate is established practice for large (>NOK 500 million) public projects in Norway. Probabilistic forecasts are necessary because the future is uncertain. There are many different possible futures, and some are more likely to come to pass than others. A probabilistic forecast, as opposed to a deterministic forecast, quantifies the uncertainty about future developments. While a probabilistic forecast is not necessarily more accurate than a deterministic forecast, the former contains more information, which is useful for planning purposes. Let us assume that in a specific area, only a deterministic forecast of the relevant variable(s) is available. This may leave room for political decisions to be made. An example is the “shutdown” of the U.S. government in December 1995. President Clinton proposed a seven-year budget plan that would produce a $115 billion deficit over the seven-year period, according to the economic forecasts of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). However, the Office of Management and Budgets (OMB) estimated rather more optimistically that the budget would be balanced at the end of the period. Republican leaders demanded that Clinton propose a plan that would be balanced when using the CBO numbers, rather than the OMB’s; see https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2013/09/25/hereis-every-previous-government-shutdown-why-they-happened-and-how-theyended/?utm term=.4bb10057f0d9, shutdown # 17.
挪威议会(“Stortinget”)已决定购买52架新型F35型联合攻击战斗机。当做出决定时,一架F35的价格是未知的,因为飞机仍在建造中。因此,Stortinget要求总成本预测有50%的机会是准确的。2012年,价格估计为610亿挪威克朗(约60亿欧元)。此外,Stortinget想要有一个有85%正确率的成本估算。这一估计为720亿挪威克朗;参见https://www.regjeringen.no/no/dokumenter/prop73-s-20112012/id676029/sec9,第2.4.4节。在挪威,对于大型(5亿挪威克朗)公共项目,要求概率成本预测的准确率为50%或85%是既定做法。概率预测是必要的,因为未来是不确定的。未来有很多不同的可能,有些比另一些更容易实现。与确定性预测相反,概率预测量化了未来发展的不确定性。虽然概率预测不一定比确定性预测更准确,但前者包含更多的信息,这对规划目的很有用。让我们假设,在一个特定的领域,只有相关变量的确定性预测是可用的。这可能会为政治决策留下余地。一个例子是1995年12月美国政府的“关闭”。根据国会预算办公室(CBO)的经济预测,克林顿总统提出的7年预算计划将在7年期间产生1150亿美元的赤字。然而,管理和预算局(管理和预算局)较为乐观地估计,预算将在本期间结束时实现平衡。共和党领导人要求克林顿提出一项计划,在使用国会预算办公室(CBO)而不是行政管理和预算局(OMB)的数据时,该计划将保持平衡;参见https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2013/09/25/hereis-every-previous-government-shutdown-why-they-happened-and-how-theyended/?utm term=。关闭# 17。
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引用次数: 7
Historical patterns of unpaid work in Europe: NTTA results by age and gender 欧洲无薪工作的历史模式:按年龄和性别划分的NTTA结果
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2019s121
Ana Šeme, Lili Vargha, Tanja Istenič, Jože Sambt
This paper presents an analysis of the age patterns of production, consumption, and net transfers in the form of unpaid work by gender over time. Using the National Time Transfer Accounts (NTTA) methodology, we briefly analyse complete historical results for several European countries. Our main aim is to introduce historical NTTA results, which are freely available to the public for further usage on the AGENTA database. The results of our analysis show that the evolution of age patterns over time differed between men and women, and was highly affected by different demographic trends, as well as by the specific institutional background of each country. Our findings indicate that despite the differences in age patterns over time and across countries, two main characteristics of these patterns did not change: i.e. transfers of unpaid work flowed first from women to men, and second from the working-age population to children and – to a lesser extent – to the elderly.
本文按性别分析了生产、消费和无偿工作形式的净转移的年龄模式。使用国家时间转移账户(NTTA)方法,我们简要分析了几个欧洲国家的完整历史结果。我们的主要目的是介绍历史的NTTA结果,这些结果可以免费提供给公众,以便在AGENTA数据库中进一步使用。我们的分析结果表明,随着时间的推移,年龄模式的演变在男性和女性之间存在差异,并且受到不同人口趋势以及每个国家特定制度背景的高度影响。我们的研究结果表明,尽管不同时期和不同国家的年龄模式存在差异,但这些模式的两个主要特征并没有改变:即无偿工作的转移首先从女性流向男性,其次从工作年龄人口流向儿童,并在较小程度上流向老年人。
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引用次数: 2
Italians’ use of time during the economic crisis: implications for the gender division of labour 意大利人在经济危机中对时间的利用:对性别劳动分工的影响
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2019s141
M. Zannella, A. D. Rose
This article builds on time use micro-data for Italy to analyse the evolution of individuals’ time allocation during the 2002–2014 period, with a gender-specific focus. We are particularly interested in comparing changes that occurred between the years prior to and after the onset of the recent economic crisis. We use regression analysis to measure differences between years in the average use of time of men and women for personal care, education, paid work, unpaid work, and leisure over the considered period(s). In order to gain more insight into gender differences in time use behaviours, we further break down unpaid work and free time into detailed activities. We document a decrease of about two hours per week in female housework coupled with a similar increase in male unpaid work over the entire period. However, while signs of this gender convergence were already evident for women in the years before the recession, we do not find any significant change in male unpaid work between 2002 and 2008. It was only after the onset of the economic crisis, and the consequent losses in paid work hours, that men started spending more time on housework and family care.
本文以意大利的时间使用微观数据为基础,分析了2002-2014年期间个人时间分配的演变,并以性别为重点。我们特别感兴趣的是比较最近的经济危机爆发前后几年发生的变化。我们使用回归分析来衡量男性和女性在个人护理、教育、有偿工作、无偿工作和休闲方面的平均使用时间的年份之间的差异。为了更深入地了解时间使用行为的性别差异,我们进一步将无偿工作和空闲时间分解为详细的活动。我们发现,在整个期间,女性每周做家务的时间减少了约两小时,而男性无偿做家务的时间也出现了类似的增加。然而,尽管这种性别趋同的迹象在经济衰退前的几年就已经在女性身上表现得很明显,但在2002年至2008年期间,我们没有发现男性无薪工作有任何显著变化。只是在经济危机爆发以及随之而来的有偿工作时间减少之后,男性才开始把更多的时间花在家务和照顾家庭上。
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引用次数: 2
Welfare state and the age distribution of public consumption and public transfers in the EU countries 福利国家与欧盟国家公共消费和公共转移的年龄分布
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2019s071
Agnieszka Chło´n-Domi´nczak, Anita Abramowska-Kmon, I. Kotowska, Wojciech Łątkowski, P. Strzelecki
The article extends the discussion of the welfare state in the literature by presenting a quantitative assessment of the age distribution of public resources. It investigates the differences in the distribution of public transfers between age groups in different European welfare state regimes using the National Transfer Accounts approach. There are two groups of countries that stand out in terms of the age patterns of their public transfers: three Scandinavian countries and Luxembourg have relatively high transfer levels, particularly for the older age group; while some of the Central and Eastern European countries have relatively low transfer levels. In the other European countries, the age profiles of public transfers are close to the EU average. Total public expenditures and revenues in the two distinct groups are changing in response to population ageing: i.e. they are expanding in the Scandinavian countries, and they are contracting in the CEE countries. These developments may lead to the further divergence of these welfare regimes.
本文通过对公共资源的年龄分布进行定量评估,扩展了文献中对福利国家的讨论。它使用国民转移账户方法调查了不同欧洲福利国家制度中不同年龄群体之间公共转移分配的差异。有两类国家在其公共转移支付的年龄模式方面表现突出:三个斯堪的纳维亚国家和卢森堡的转移支付水平相对较高,特别是老年群体;而一些中欧和东欧国家的转移水平相对较低。在其他欧洲国家,公共转移支付的年龄分布接近欧盟的平均水平。由于人口老龄化,这两个不同群体的公共支出和收入总额正在发生变化:即斯堪的纳维亚国家的公共支出和收入在增加,而中东欧国家的公共支出和收入在减少。这些发展可能导致这些福利制度的进一步分化。
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引用次数: 4
Does education matter? – economic dependency ratios by education 教育重要吗?-按教育划分的经济抚养比
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2018s111
A. Prskawetz, Bernhard Hammer
When studying the economic consequences of changes in the age structure of the population, looking at economic dependency ratios provides us with some descriptive and intuitive initial insights. In this paper, we present two economic dependency ratios. The first ratio is based on economic activity status, and relates the number of dependent individuals to the number of workers. The second dependency ratio relates consumption to total labour income. To build up the second ratio, we rely on the recently set up National Transfer Accounts (NTA) for Austria. Simulations of the employment-based dependency ratio with constant agespecific employment rates indicate that the employment-based dependency ratio will increase from 1.23 in 2010 to 1.88 in 2050, based on a population scenario that assumes low mortality, medium fertility and medium migration in the future. The corresponding values for the NTA-based dependency with constant age-specific labour income and consumption are 1.12 in 2010 and 1.49 in 2050.We then compare how the dependency ratio would di?er if we accounted for the increasing levels of educational attainment. While the education-specific age patterns of economic activities are kept constant as of 2010, the changing educational composition up to 2050 is accounted for. In Austria, higher educated individuals enter and exit the labour market at older ages and have more total labour income than lower educated individuals. Our simulations of the education-specific economic dependency ratios up to 2050, based on the optimistic projection scenario of low mortality and high educational levels in the future, show that the employment-based ratio will increase to 1.68 and the NTA-based dependency ratio will rise to 1.28. These increases are still considerable, but are well below the values found when changes in the educational composition are not taken into account. We can therefore conclude that the trend towards higher levels of educational attainment may help to reduce economic dependency.
在研究人口年龄结构变化的经济后果时,观察经济抚养比为我们提供了一些描述性和直观的初步见解。在本文中,我们提出了两个经济抚养比。第一个比率是基于经济活动状况,并将依赖个人的人数与工人人数联系起来。第二个抚养比将消费与总劳动收入联系起来。为了建立第二个比率,我们依靠最近为奥地利建立的国民转移账户(NTA)。在特定年龄就业率不变的情况下,就业抚养比的模拟结果表明,在未来低死亡率、中等生育率和中等迁移率的人口情景下,就业抚养比将从2010年的1.23增加到2050年的1.88。在特定年龄劳动收入和消费不变的情况下,2010年基于nta的抚养值为1.12,2050年为1.49。然后我们比较抚养比会如何变化?如果我们考虑到教育程度的提高。虽然经济活动的特定教育年龄模式在2010年保持不变,但考虑到2050年的教育构成变化。在奥地利,受过高等教育的人进入和退出劳动力市场的年龄较长,总劳动收入高于受教育程度较低的人。我们以低死亡率和高教育水平的乐观预测为基础,模拟2050年不同教育的经济抚养比,结果显示,以就业为基础的抚养比将上升至1.68,而以新定居地区为基础的抚养比将上升至1.28。这些增长仍然相当可观,但远低于不考虑教育构成变化时所发现的价值。因此,我们可以得出结论,教育程度提高的趋势可能有助于减少对经济的依赖。
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引用次数: 7
期刊
Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
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