In this study, we introduce a ternary colour coding to visualize and compare the age structure of deaths by COVID-19 (until 06/30/2020) in Brazilian small-areas using the tricolore package in R. The analysis of age profile is important to better understand the dynamics of the pandemic and how it affects the population according to age groups (0-19, 20-59, and >60 years) and regions of the country. The results highlight the importance of looking at the small-areas and show that there are many pandemics going on in Brazil at the same time, instead of a single one. The pandemic is increasing in the interior of the country, but we still observed several cases and deaths in the major cities and, as of today, very few signs of reduction in the spread of the disease. We also show that the number of cases is more concentrated in females, but deaths are prevalent among men. The CFR for males is greater than the ones for females, but also mortality for young adult males is greater when compared with other countries.
{"title":"Regional Covid-19 Mortality in Brazil by Age","authors":"E. A. Baptista, B. Queiroz","doi":"10.31235/osf.io/ujstp","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/ujstp","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, we introduce a ternary colour coding to visualize and compare the age structure of deaths by COVID-19 (until 06/30/2020) in Brazilian small-areas using the tricolore package in R. The analysis of age profile is important to better understand the dynamics of the pandemic and how it affects the population according to age groups (0-19, 20-59, and >60 years) and regions of the country. The results highlight the importance of looking at the small-areas and show that there are many pandemics going on in Brazil at the same time, instead of a single one. The pandemic is increasing in the interior of the country, but we still observed several cases and deaths in the major cities and, as of today, very few signs of reduction in the spread of the disease. We also show that the number of cases is more concentrated in females, but deaths are prevalent among men. The CFR for males is greater than the ones for females, but also mortality for young adult males is greater when compared with other countries.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47388911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-12-18DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2019s099
Haodong Qi, Kirk Scott, T. Bengtsson
Population ageing is making it increasingly diffcult for countries to sustain their current levels social welfare transfers from the economically active population to the dependent elderly. To meet this challenge, the Swedish government has implemented various reforms since the 1990s aimed at reducing incentives to take early retirement. However, a critical question has emerged in response to these reforms: namely, whether members of certain socially and demographically disadvantaged groups will, in practice, be able to work longer. This paper provides a detailed overview of retirement trends in Sweden, disaggregated by educational attainment, health status, and country of birth. Our results show that the growth pattern in the average effective retirement age since the mid-1990s was shared by individuals regardless of their educational level, health status, or country of birth. This shared growth pattern suggests that it is possible to extend the working lives of all groups of individuals, regardless of their socio-economic and demographic characteristics. (Less)
{"title":"Extending working life: experiences from Sweden, 1981–2011","authors":"Haodong Qi, Kirk Scott, T. Bengtsson","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2019s099","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2019s099","url":null,"abstract":"Population ageing is making it increasingly diffcult for countries to sustain their current levels social welfare transfers from the economically active population to the dependent elderly. To meet this challenge, the Swedish government has implemented various reforms since the 1990s aimed at reducing incentives to take early retirement. However, a critical question has emerged in response to these reforms: namely, whether members of certain socially and demographically disadvantaged groups will, in practice, be able to work longer. This paper provides a detailed overview of retirement trends in Sweden, disaggregated by educational attainment, health status, and country of birth. Our results show that the growth pattern in the average effective retirement age since the mid-1990s was shared by individuals regardless of their educational level, health status, or country of birth. This shared growth pattern suggests that it is possible to extend the working lives of all groups of individuals, regardless of their socio-economic and demographic characteristics. (Less)","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43255847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-06-01DOI: 10.1553/POPULATIONYEARBOOK2018S199
F. Willekens
International migration is dicult to predict because of uncertainties. The identification of sources of uncertainty and the measurement and modelling of uncertainties are necessary, but they are not sucient. Uncertainties should be reduced by accounting for the heterogeneity of migrants, the reasons why some people leave their country while most stay, and the causal mechanisms that lead to those choices. International migration takes place within a context of globalisation, technological change, growing interest in migration governance, and the emergence of a migration industry. Young people are more likely than older people to respond to these contextual factors, as they are better informed, have greater self-ecacy, and are more likely to have a social network abroad than previous generations. My aim in this paper is to present ideas for the causal forecasting of migration. Wolfgang Lutz’s demographic theory of socioeconomic change is a good point of departure. The cohort-replacement mechanism, which is central to Lutz’s theory, is extended to account for cohort heterogeneity, life-cycle transitions, and learning. I close the paper by concluding that the time has come to explore the causal mechanisms underlying migration, and to make optimal use of that knowledge to improve migration forecasts.
{"title":"Towards causal forecasting of international migration","authors":"F. Willekens","doi":"10.1553/POPULATIONYEARBOOK2018S199","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/POPULATIONYEARBOOK2018S199","url":null,"abstract":"International migration is dicult to predict because of uncertainties. The identification of sources of uncertainty and the measurement and modelling of uncertainties are necessary, but they are not sucient. Uncertainties should be reduced by accounting for the heterogeneity of migrants, the reasons why some people leave their country while most stay, and the causal mechanisms that lead to those choices. International migration takes place within a context of globalisation, technological change, growing interest in migration governance, and the emergence of a migration industry. Young people are more likely than older people to respond to these contextual factors, as they are better informed, have greater self-ecacy, and are more likely to have a social network abroad than previous generations. My aim in this paper is to present ideas for the causal forecasting of migration. Wolfgang Lutz’s demographic theory of socioeconomic change is a good point of departure. The cohort-replacement mechanism, which is central to Lutz’s theory, is extended to account for cohort heterogeneity, life-cycle transitions, and learning. I close the paper by concluding that the time has come to explore the causal mechanisms underlying migration, and to make optimal use of that knowledge to improve migration forecasts.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":"151 ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41309777","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-03-01DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2018s037
P. Rees
This discussion piece is an extended review of the work on projecting the world’s population and human capital by country conducted by the Wittgenstein Centre (WIC). The project was led by Wolfgang Lutz, and its outcomes were published by Oxford University Press in a book that appeared in 2014. Using statistics from the book and elsewhere, this article starts with an overview of the development of educational attainment. The role that education plays in the WIC2014 model is identified. Definitions of ‘multi-dimensional’, ‘multi-state’, and ‘micro-simulation’ are offered, and are used to characterise the model. A thumbnail sketch of the main methodsusedintheprojectionsisgiven.Thefinalsectionsetsoutapossibleagenda for the future development of the WIC2014 model. This review is intended to help readers tackle the more than 1,000 pages of argument and analysis in the book, which represents a major contribution to demographic research in the 21st century.
{"title":"Education and demography: a review of world population and human capital in the 21st century","authors":"P. Rees","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2018s037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2018s037","url":null,"abstract":"This discussion piece is an extended review of the work on projecting the world’s population and human capital by country conducted by the Wittgenstein Centre (WIC). The project was led by Wolfgang Lutz, and its outcomes were published by Oxford University Press in a book that appeared in 2014. Using statistics from the book and elsewhere, this article starts with an overview of the development of educational attainment. The role that education plays in the WIC2014 model is identified. Definitions of ‘multi-dimensional’, ‘multi-state’, and ‘micro-simulation’ are offered, and are used to characterise the model. A thumbnail sketch of the main methodsusedintheprojectionsisgiven.Thefinalsectionsetsoutapossibleagenda for the future development of the WIC2014 model. This review is intended to help readers tackle the more than 1,000 pages of argument and analysis in the book, which represents a major contribution to demographic research in the 21st century.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45592087","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-01-01DOI: 10.1553/POPULATIONYEARBOOK2018S163
W. Sanderson, S. Scherbov, P. Gerland
Will the population of today's high-income countries continue to age throughout the remainder of the century? We answer this question by combining two methodologies, Bayesian hierarchical probabilistic population forecasting and the use of prospective ages, which are chronological ages adjusted for changes in life expectancy. We distinguish two variants of measures of aging: those that depend on fixed chronological ages and those that use prospective ages. Conventional measures do not, for example, distinguish between 65-year-olds in 2000 and 65- year-olds in 2100. In making forecasts of population aging over long periods of time, ignoring changes in the characteristics of people can lead to misleading results. It is preferable to use measures based on prospective ages in which expected changes in life expectancy are taken into account. We present probabilistic forecasts of population aging that use conventional and prospective measures for high-income countries as a group. The probabilistic forecasts based on conventional measures of aging show that the probability that aging will continue throughout the century is essentially one. In contrast, the probabilistic forecasts based on prospective measures of population aging show that population aging will almost certainly come to end well before the end of the century. Using prospective measures of population aging, we show that aging in high-income countries is likely a transitory phenomenon.
{"title":"The end of population aging in high-income countries","authors":"W. Sanderson, S. Scherbov, P. Gerland","doi":"10.1553/POPULATIONYEARBOOK2018S163","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/POPULATIONYEARBOOK2018S163","url":null,"abstract":"Will the population of today's high-income countries continue to age throughout the remainder of the century? We answer this question by combining two methodologies, Bayesian hierarchical probabilistic population forecasting and the use of prospective ages, which are chronological ages adjusted for changes in life expectancy. We distinguish two variants of measures of aging: those that depend on fixed chronological ages and those that use prospective ages. Conventional measures do not, for example, distinguish between 65-year-olds in 2000 and 65- year-olds in 2100. In making forecasts of population aging over long periods of time, ignoring changes in the characteristics of people can lead to misleading results. It is preferable to use measures based on prospective ages in which expected changes in life expectancy are taken into account. We present probabilistic forecasts of population aging that use conventional and prospective measures for high-income countries as a group. The probabilistic forecasts based on conventional measures of aging show that the probability that aging will continue throughout the century is essentially one. In contrast, the probabilistic forecasts based on prospective measures of population aging show that population aging will almost certainly come to end well before the end of the century. Using prospective measures of population aging, we show that aging in high-income countries is likely a transitory phenomenon.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67364822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-01-01DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2019s201
Tanja Istenič, Bernhard Hammer, A. Prskawetz
The goal of the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) project is to improve our understanding of the economic consequences of demographic changes by introducing demographic information into the System of National Accounts (SNA). As part of the AGENTA research project (http://www.agenta-project.eu/), NTA datasets were compiled for 25 European countries and the base year 2010. The aim of this paper is to introduce the general concept of NTA, and to provide an overview of the European NTA data and the data explorer at www.wittgensteincentre.org/ntadata. Age is one of the main determinants of individuals’ economic behaviour. In general, people experience three different economic phases in their life course. Working-age individuals are typically able to finance their own consumption by producing more than they consume. In contrast, at the youngest and oldest ages, people’s consumption usually exceeds their labour income (Lee and Mason 2011b). The gap between consumption and labour income can be financed by age reallocations in the form of private transfers (e.g., transfers from parents to children), public transfers (e.g., publicly financed pensions and education), or assetbased reallocations resulting from participation in capital and financial markets (Mason et al. 2006). In contemporary societies, periods of economic dependency are gradually being extended as the young are spending more time in education and the elderly are living longer. Measuring age reallocations is useful for understanding the intergenerational economy and the organisation of intergenerational support; i.e., how the gap between consumption and labour income is financed in childhood and in old
{"title":"European National (Time) Transfer Accounts","authors":"Tanja Istenič, Bernhard Hammer, A. Prskawetz","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2019s201","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2019s201","url":null,"abstract":"The goal of the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) project is to improve our understanding of the economic consequences of demographic changes by introducing demographic information into the System of National Accounts (SNA). As part of the AGENTA research project (http://www.agenta-project.eu/), NTA datasets were compiled for 25 European countries and the base year 2010. The aim of this paper is to introduce the general concept of NTA, and to provide an overview of the European NTA data and the data explorer at www.wittgensteincentre.org/ntadata. Age is one of the main determinants of individuals’ economic behaviour. In general, people experience three different economic phases in their life course. Working-age individuals are typically able to finance their own consumption by producing more than they consume. In contrast, at the youngest and oldest ages, people’s consumption usually exceeds their labour income (Lee and Mason 2011b). The gap between consumption and labour income can be financed by age reallocations in the form of private transfers (e.g., transfers from parents to children), public transfers (e.g., publicly financed pensions and education), or assetbased reallocations resulting from participation in capital and financial markets (Mason et al. 2006). In contemporary societies, periods of economic dependency are gradually being extended as the young are spending more time in education and the elderly are living longer. Measuring age reallocations is useful for understanding the intergenerational economy and the organisation of intergenerational support; i.e., how the gap between consumption and labour income is financed in childhood and in old","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67365634","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-01-01DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2018s009
W. Butz
The principles underlying a field of study can provide both internal coherence and external influence. First, in our context of a scientific discipline, principles can lend coherence by explicating how the discipline’s various aspects and pieces fit together, and how their total becomes greater than the sum of the parts. Second, a discipline’s principles can suggest how its perspectives and findings might contribute to other disciplines, and, even more broadly, to policy analysis and civil discourse. The exporting of hegemony across scientific fields and beyond—a process that can be more aggressive and less friendly than the usual multidisciplinary pursuits—can awaken new passions in adjacent academic fields. If there are principles of demography that already reflect and provide coherence within our field, is it then possible that the explicit elucidation or even the promotion of these principles abroad adds to the prominence of our science in the academic and policy communities, while enriching other approaches to studying human behavior? Anthropology, economics, geography, psychology, and sociology might be open to the hegemony of demographic perspectives, models, and tools, as unified under a set of principles. The philosophy and methodology of science, in which my topic modestly sits, has interested Wolfgang Lutz throughout his career. Drawing on his strong academic grounding in history and philosophy, he has recently made the fruitful proposal of partitioning scientific disciplines into identity sciences and intervention sciences, and causality into strong causality and functional causality (Lutz et al. 2017, 17– 19). The identity sciences, which are generally the humanities, ask “Who are we?” and “Where do we come from?” The intervention sciences ask “How do the most important forces of change in a social system function, so as to predict the future evolution of the system?”
一个研究领域的基本原则既可以提供内部一致性，也可以提供外部影响。首先，在我们科学学科的背景下，原则可以通过解释学科的各个方面和部分如何结合在一起，以及它们的总和如何大于部分的总和，从而提供连贯性。其次，一个学科的原则可以表明它的观点和发现如何有助于其他学科，甚至更广泛地说，有助于政策分析和民间话语。在科学领域内外输出霸权——这一过程可能比通常的多学科研究更具侵略性，也更不友好——可以唤醒邻近学术领域的新激情。如果有一些人口学的原则已经在我们的领域内反映并提供了一致性，那么这些原则的明确阐明甚至在国外的推广是否有可能增加我们的科学在学术和政策团体中的突出地位，同时丰富其他研究人类行为的方法?人类学、经济学、地理学、心理学和社会学可能会对统一在一套原则下的人口统计学观点、模型和工具的霸权开放。沃尔夫冈·卢茨的整个职业生涯都对科学的哲学和方法论感兴趣，这也是我的主题所在。利用他在历史和哲学方面的深厚学术基础，他最近提出了将科学学科划分为身份科学和干预科学，将因果关系划分为强因果关系和功能因果关系的富有成效的建议(Lutz et al. 2017,17 - 19)。身份科学，通常是人文学科，问的是“我们是谁?”和“我们从哪里来?”干预科学的问题是“社会系统中最重要的变革力量如何发挥作用，从而预测系统的未来演变?”
{"title":"Are there principles of demography? A search for unifying (and hegemonic) themes","authors":"W. Butz","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2018s009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2018s009","url":null,"abstract":"The principles underlying a field of study can provide both internal coherence and external influence. First, in our context of a scientific discipline, principles can lend coherence by explicating how the discipline’s various aspects and pieces fit together, and how their total becomes greater than the sum of the parts. Second, a discipline’s principles can suggest how its perspectives and findings might contribute to other disciplines, and, even more broadly, to policy analysis and civil discourse. The exporting of hegemony across scientific fields and beyond—a process that can be more aggressive and less friendly than the usual multidisciplinary pursuits—can awaken new passions in adjacent academic fields. If there are principles of demography that already reflect and provide coherence within our field, is it then possible that the explicit elucidation or even the promotion of these principles abroad adds to the prominence of our science in the academic and policy communities, while enriching other approaches to studying human behavior? Anthropology, economics, geography, psychology, and sociology might be open to the hegemony of demographic perspectives, models, and tools, as unified under a set of principles. The philosophy and methodology of science, in which my topic modestly sits, has interested Wolfgang Lutz throughout his career. Drawing on his strong academic grounding in history and philosophy, he has recently made the fruitful proposal of partitioning scientific disciplines into identity sciences and intervention sciences, and causality into strong causality and functional causality (Lutz et al. 2017, 17– 19). The identity sciences, which are generally the humanities, ask “Who are we?” and “Where do we come from?” The intervention sciences ask “How do the most important forces of change in a social system function, so as to predict the future evolution of the system?”","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67364969","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-01-01DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2018s083
G. Caselli, R. Lipsi
The public pension system in Italy is a defined contribution scheme based on the principle of actuarial fairness. The pension annuity is calculated starting from capitalised value and the Legislated Conversion Factors (LCFs) for each retirement age. The demographic parameters used by legislators in computing the LCFs are the survival probabilities of an average Italian, irrespective of gender or any characteristic except age. The aim of this paper is to analyse the impact of the differences in survival between men and women, and between individuals with different educational levels, on the calculation of the pension annuity, starting from the specific Conversion Factors (CFs). The gap between the LCFs and the factors obtained by allowing for differential survival across gender and socio-demographic groups (CFs) gives us a means of making a quantitative assessment of the implicit redistributive impacts of the annuity redistribution from individuals with a lower life expectancy to individuals with a higher life expectancy. 1 Italian pension reform: an introduction Since the mid-1970s, the demographic behaviour of Italians has undergone profound changes that have modified the population dynamics of the country both directly and indirectly, and have thus had significant consequences for various aspects of social and economic life in Italy. The slow but inexorable shift in the demographic profile of Italy has been caused by declining fertility on the one hand, and increasing survival on the other. It is generally understood that when the ∗ Graziella Caselli (corresponding author), Sapienza University of Rome, Department of Statistical Sciences, Viale Regina Elena 295, 00161, Rome, Italy Email: graziella.caselli@uniroma1.it Rosa Maria Lipsi, Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), Italy The views and opinions expressed in this paper are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT). DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbookXXXX 2 Survival inequalities and redistribution in the Italian pension system younger cohorts are constantly shrinking even as the older cohorts are expanding, the population will age. In 2016, Italy and Germany were the European countries with the highest shares of the population aged 65 or older: 21.9 per cent for Italy and 21.2 per cent for Germany. This figure for Italy seems even more significant if we consider that it represents a population of almost 14 million, up from four million in 1951 (eight per cent of the total population). Although demographers had been issuing detailed warnings of this demographic shift since the late 1970s (Vitali 1976; Golini and Pinnelli 1983; Golini 1987), politicians were slow to realise that given the speed at which the ageing process was advancing, this shift would have an unprecedented impact on the country’s public expenditures starting around the turn of the century. It was especially difficult to persuade politicians
意大利的公共养老金制度是一种基于精算公平原则的固定缴款计划。退休金年金按每个退休年龄的资本化价值及法定换算系数计算。立法者在计算最低生活成本时使用的人口统计参数是普通意大利人的生存概率，不考虑性别或年龄以外的任何特征。本文的目的是从具体的转换因子(CFs)出发，分析男女之间以及不同教育水平个体之间的生存差异对养老金年金计算的影响。lcf之间的差距和通过考虑性别和社会人口群体(CFs)的生存差异而获得的因素，为我们提供了一种定量评估从预期寿命较低的个人到预期寿命较高的个人的年金再分配的隐性再分配影响的方法。意大利养恤金改革:引言自1970年代中期以来，意大利人的人口行为发生了深刻的变化，直接和间接地改变了该国的人口动态，从而对意大利社会和经济生活的各个方面产生了重大影响。意大利人口结构缓慢但不可阻挡的变化一方面是由于生育率下降，另一方面是由于存活率提高。一般理解，当* Graziella Caselli(通讯作者)，罗马Sapienza大学统计科学系，Viale Regina Elena 295, 00161，意大利罗马电子邮件:graziella.caselli@uniroma1.it Rosa Maria Lipsi，意大利国家统计研究所(ISTAT)，意大利本文所表达的观点和观点仅代表作者的观点和观点，并不一定反映意大利国家统计研究所(ISTAT)的观点和观点。意大利养老金制度中的生存不平等和再分配，年轻群体不断萎缩，即使老年群体在扩大，人口也将老龄化。2016年，意大利和德国是65岁及以上人口比例最高的欧洲国家:意大利为21.9%，德国为21.2%。如果我们考虑到意大利的人口从1951年的400万(占总人口的8%)增加到近1400万，这个数字就显得更加重要。尽管自20世纪70年代末以来，人口统计学家一直在发布有关这种人口变化的详细警告(维塔利1976;Golini and Pinnelli 1983;戈利尼(Golini, 1987))，但政治家们迟迟没有意识到，鉴于老龄化进程的推进速度，这种转变将从世纪之交开始对该国的公共支出产生前所未有的影响。在工作年龄人口增长(由于战后婴儿潮持续到20世纪60年代初)和高就业水平的综合影响下，养老金系统的金库出现了前所未有的盈余，在这种情况下，说服政治家关注养老金支出尤其困难。多年来，退休年龄和现收现付制度都不是问题——事实上，这个制度产生的收入也可以很容易地覆盖福利支出。20世纪90年代，当养老金支出迅速增长的第一个令人担忧的迹象开始出现时，政策制定者仍然没有紧迫感。虽然对退休制度作了一些小的调整，但今后将需要更大的干预。当时，退休年龄被提高，提前退休养老金被缩减(缴纳35年养老金的工人仍有可能提前退休，而公共部门只有20年养老金)，缴纳年限与养老金规模的联系更加紧密。从1995年起，分阶段采用了一种计算养恤金福利的新方法- -我们在本文中详细描述的“缴款制度”(“1995年迪尼改革”:1995年8月8日第335号法律(表a .1，附录))。这一制度将在2030年至2035年全面生效，届时出生在20世纪60年代的婴儿潮一代将离开劳动力大军，自己也将成为养老金领取者。越来越明显的是，这项改革的实施过于缓慢。虽然2011年批准了旨在改革退休制度的其他立法措施，但养老金支出继续以不可持续的速度增长，引发了进一步一系列养老金改革的需要(图1)。2011年第201/2011号法令(称为2011年“salva Italia”法令)，其中包括“2011年Fornero改革”(表a .1，附录)，对退休制度进行了两项重要改革。 意大利的公共养老金制度是一种基于精算公平原则的固定缴款计划。退休金年金按每个退休年龄的资本化价值及法定换算系数计算。立法者在计算最低生活成本时使用的人口统计参数是普通意大利人的生存概率，不考虑性别或年龄以外的任何特征。本文的目的是从具体的转换因子(CFs)出发，分析男女之间以及不同教育水平个体之间的生存差异对养老金年金计算的影响。lcf之间的差距和通过考虑性别和社会人口群体(CFs)的生存差异而获得的因素，为我们提供了一种定量评估从预期寿命较低的个人到预期寿命较高的个人的年金再分配的隐性再分配影响的方法。意大利养恤金改革:引言自1970年代中期以来，意大利人的人口行为发生了深刻的变化，直接和间接地改变了该国的人口动态，从而对意大利社会和经济生活的各个方面产生了重大影响。意大利人口结构缓慢但不可阻挡的变化一方面是由于生育率下降，另一方面是由于存活率提高。一般理解，当* Graziella Caselli(通讯作者)，罗马Sapienza大学统计科学系，Viale Regina Elena 295, 00161，意大利罗马电子邮件:graziella.caselli@uniroma1.it Rosa Maria Lipsi，意大利国家统计研究所(ISTAT)，意大利本文所表达的观点和观点仅代表作者的观点和观点，并不一定反映意大利国家统计研究所(ISTAT)的观点和观点。意大利养老金制度中的生存不平等和再分配，年轻群体不断萎缩，即使老年群体在扩大，人口也将老龄化。2016年，意大利和德国是65岁及以上人口比例最高的欧洲国家:意大利为21.9%，德国为21.2%。如果我们考虑到意大利的人口从1951年的400万(占总人口的8%)增加到近1400万，这个数字就显得更加重要。尽管自20世纪70年代末以来，人口统计学家一直在发布有关这种人口变化的详细警告(维塔利1976;Golini and Pinnelli 1983;戈利尼(Golini, 1987))，但政治家们迟迟没有意识到，鉴于老龄化进程的推进速度，这种转变将从世纪之交开始对该国的公共支出产生前所未有的影响。在工作年龄人口增长(由于战后婴儿潮持续到20世纪60年代初)和高就业水平的综合影响下，养老金系统的金库出现了前所未有的盈余，在这种情况下，说服政治家关注养老金支出尤其困难。多年来，退休年龄和现收现付制度都不是问题——事实上，这个制度产生的收入也可以很容易地覆盖福利支出。20世纪90年代，当养老金支出迅速增长的第一个令人担忧的迹象开始出现时，政策制定者仍然没有紧迫感。虽然对退休制度作了一些小的调整，但今后将需要更大的干预。当时，退休年龄被提高，提前退休养老金被缩减(缴纳35年养老金的工人仍有可能提前退休，而公共部门只有20年养老金)，缴纳年限与养老金规模的联系更加紧密。从1995年起，分阶段采用了一种计算养恤金福利的新方法- -我们在本文中详细描述的“缴款制度”(“1995年迪尼改革”:1995年8月8日第335号法律(表a .1，附录))。这一制度将在2030年至2035年全面生效，届时出生在20世纪60年代的婴儿潮一代将离开劳动力大军，自己也将成为养老金领取者。越来越明显的是，这项改革的实施过于缓慢。虽然2011年批准了旨在改革退休制度的其他立法措施，但养老金支出继续以不可持续的速度增长，引发了进一步一系列养老金改革的需要(图1)。2011年第201/2011号法令(称为2011年“salva Italia”法令)，其中包括“2011年Fornero改革”(表a .1，附录)，对退
{"title":"Survival inequalities and redistribution in the Italian pension system","authors":"G. Caselli, R. Lipsi","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2018s083","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2018s083","url":null,"abstract":"The public pension system in Italy is a defined contribution scheme based on the principle of actuarial fairness. The pension annuity is calculated starting from capitalised value and the Legislated Conversion Factors (LCFs) for each retirement age. The demographic parameters used by legislators in computing the LCFs are the survival probabilities of an average Italian, irrespective of gender or any characteristic except age. The aim of this paper is to analyse the impact of the differences in survival between men and women, and between individuals with different educational levels, on the calculation of the pension annuity, starting from the specific Conversion Factors (CFs). The gap between the LCFs and the factors obtained by allowing for differential survival across gender and socio-demographic groups (CFs) gives us a means of making a quantitative assessment of the implicit redistributive impacts of the annuity redistribution from individuals with a lower life expectancy to individuals with a higher life expectancy. 1 Italian pension reform: an introduction Since the mid-1970s, the demographic behaviour of Italians has undergone profound changes that have modified the population dynamics of the country both directly and indirectly, and have thus had significant consequences for various aspects of social and economic life in Italy. The slow but inexorable shift in the demographic profile of Italy has been caused by declining fertility on the one hand, and increasing survival on the other. It is generally understood that when the ∗ Graziella Caselli (corresponding author), Sapienza University of Rome, Department of Statistical Sciences, Viale Regina Elena 295, 00161, Rome, Italy Email: graziella.caselli@uniroma1.it Rosa Maria Lipsi, Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), Italy The views and opinions expressed in this paper are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT). DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbookXXXX 2 Survival inequalities and redistribution in the Italian pension system younger cohorts are constantly shrinking even as the older cohorts are expanding, the population will age. In 2016, Italy and Germany were the European countries with the highest shares of the population aged 65 or older: 21.9 per cent for Italy and 21.2 per cent for Germany. This figure for Italy seems even more significant if we consider that it represents a population of almost 14 million, up from four million in 1951 (eight per cent of the total population). Although demographers had been issuing detailed warnings of this demographic shift since the late 1970s (Vitali 1976; Golini and Pinnelli 1983; Golini 1987), politicians were slow to realise that given the speed at which the ageing process was advancing, this shift would have an unprecedented impact on the country’s public expenditures starting around the turn of the century. It was especially difficult to persuade politicians","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67365169","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-01-01Epub Date: 2019-12-03DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2019s163
Denys Dukhovnov, Emilio Zagheni
Recent work based on the American Time Use Survey (2011-2013) provided estimates of matrices of "who provides care to whom" by age and sex within care activities in the U.S. In this paper, we build on that line of research by evaluating the strength of race, ethnicity, and national origin as proxy indicators of cultural propensities to engage in informal care. Our results point to several key differences and similarities between groups based on their characteristics. For example, we find that compared to other groups, native-born African American men exhibit the lowest child care participation and transfer rates, whereas foreign-born Hispanics of any race have significantly higher rates of daily participation in child care. Moreover, we find that the propensity to provide adult care is largely dependent on socio-economic characteristics and household structure. However, our models indicate that neither race/ethnicity nor nativity are strong predictors of the observed differences when household composition and socio-economic factors are taken into account. Thus, we believe that more complex cultural factors are at play. As an illustrative example of the consequences of demographic change, we introduce the care support ratio (CSR), which is a measure of macro-level dependency for non-market transfers. The application of the CSR indicates that future informal care time deficits may result from the growing care needs of the ageing population.
{"title":"Transfers of informal care time in the United States: the role of demographic differentials in intergenerational flows by age, sex, and racial and national background.","authors":"Denys Dukhovnov, Emilio Zagheni","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2019s163","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2019s163","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Recent work based on the American Time Use Survey (2011-2013) provided estimates of matrices of \"who provides care to whom\" by age and sex within care activities in the U.S. In this paper, we build on that line of research by evaluating the strength of race, ethnicity, and national origin as proxy indicators of cultural propensities to engage in informal care. Our results point to several key differences and similarities between groups based on their characteristics. For example, we find that compared to other groups, native-born African American men exhibit the lowest child care participation and transfer rates, whereas foreign-born Hispanics of any race have significantly higher rates of daily participation in child care. Moreover, we find that the propensity to provide adult care is largely dependent on socio-economic characteristics and household structure. However, our models indicate that neither race/ethnicity nor nativity are strong predictors of the observed differences when household composition and socio-economic factors are taken into account. Thus, we believe that more complex cultural factors are at play. As an illustrative example of the consequences of demographic change, we introduce the care support ratio (CSR), which is a measure of macro-level dependency for non-market transfers. The application of the CSR indicates that future informal care time deficits may result from the growing care needs of the ageing population.</p>","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":"17 ","pages":"163-197"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8152523/pdf/nihms-1554719.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39040906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-01-01DOI: 10.1553/populationyearbook2018s015
J. Cohen, H. Brunborg, Meng Xu
Which of several alternative population forecasts is the “best” or the most plausible? In published work summarized here, we use Taylor’s law (TL) and its quadratic generalization to select the best among six alternative projections (by Statistics Norway) of Norwegian county population density. We consider two time scales: long term (1978–2010 as the historical basis for projections of 2011–2040) and short term (2006–2010 as the historical basis for projections of 2011–2015). We find that the short-term projections selected as “best” by TL are more closely aligned than the four other projections with the recent county density data, and reflect the current high rate of international net immigration to Norway. Our approach needs to be further tested using other data and demographic forecasts.
{"title":"Can Taylor’s law of fluctuation scaling and its relatives help demographers select more plausible multi-regional population forecasts?","authors":"J. Cohen, H. Brunborg, Meng Xu","doi":"10.1553/populationyearbook2018s015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1553/populationyearbook2018s015","url":null,"abstract":"Which of several alternative population forecasts is the “best” or the most plausible? In published work summarized here, we use Taylor’s law (TL) and its quadratic generalization to select the best among six alternative projections (by Statistics Norway) of Norwegian county population density. We consider two time scales: long term (1978–2010 as the historical basis for projections of 2011–2040) and short term (2006–2010 as the historical basis for projections of 2011–2015). We find that the short-term projections selected as “best” by TL are more closely aligned than the four other projections with the recent county density data, and reflect the current high rate of international net immigration to Norway. Our approach needs to be further tested using other data and demographic forecasts.","PeriodicalId":34968,"journal":{"name":"Vienna Yearbook of Population Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67365051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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