Vienna Yearbook of Population Research最新文献

In this paper, we use new models to convert subjective expectations elicited from individual responses into conditional survival functions. We also estimate the effects of individual characteristics and assess the impact of health shocks on individual updates of subjective expectations. We use Health and Retirement Study (HRS) data from 1992 to 2006. By and large, our results confirm past empirical findings, but also identify patterns not documented in previous research. We show that the subjective probabilities are remarkably close to the results of actual life tables constructed from observed data, that whites underestimate their survival chances more than blacks, that women underestimate their survival chances more than men, and that the subjective underestimation of conditional survival increases with age in all population subgroups. We find significant differences in the survival outlooks of the original HRS cohort and a more recent HRS cohort (1992 versus 2004). These differences persist after introducing suitable controls. The observed mortality differentials between smokers and non-smokers, obese and non-obese individuals, and high-education and low-education groups are quite close to those of these subgroups' subjective survival expectations. Finally, we find large updating effects that result from recent health shocks on subjective expectations.

Studies of centenarians are useful in identifying factors leading to long life and avoidance of fatal diseases. In this article we consider several approaches to study effects of early-life and midlife conditions on survival to advanced ages: use of non-biological relatives as controls, the within-family analysis, as well as a sampling of controls from the same population universe as centenarians. These approaches are illustrated using data on American centenarians, their relatives and unrelated shorter-lived controls obtained from the online genealogies. The within-family analysis revealed that young maternal age at person's birth is associated with higher chances of exceptional longevity. Comparison of centenarians and their shorter-lived peers (died at age 65 and sampled from the same pool of online genealogies) confirmed that birth timing in the second half of the calendar year predicts survival to age 100. Parental longevity as well as some childhood and midlife characteristics also proved to be significant predictors of exceptional longevity.

Reliable data show that the Nicoyan region of Costa Rica is a hot spot of high longevity. A survival follow-up of 16,300 elderly Costa Ricans estimated a Nicoya death rate ratio (DRR) for males 1990-2011 of 0.80 (0.69-0.93 CI). For a 60-year-old Nicoyan male, the probability of becoming centenarian is seven times that of a Japanese male, and his life expectancy is 2.2 years greater. This Nicoya advantage does not occur in females, is independent of socio-economic conditions, disappears in out-migrants and comes from lower cardiovascular (CV) mortality (DRR = 0.65). Nicoyans have lower levels of biomarkers of CV risk; they are also leaner, taller and suffer fewer disabilities. Two markers of ageing and stress-telomere length and dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate-are also more favourable. The Nicoya diet is prosaic and abundant in traditional foods like rice, beans and animal protein, with low glycemic index and high fibre content.

Russians experience higher adult mortality than Central Asians despite higher socioeconomic status. This study exploits Kazakhstan's relatively heterogeneous population and geographic diversity to study ethnic differences in cause-specific mortality. In multivariate regression, all-cause mortality rates for Russian men is 27% higher than for Kazakh men, and alcohol-related death rates among Russian men are 2.5 times higher (15% and 4.1 times higher for females, respectively). Significant mortality differentials exist by ethnicity for external causes and alcohol-related causes of death. Adult mortality among Kazakhs is higher than previously found among Kyrgyz and lower than among Russians. The results suggest that ethnic mortality differentials in Central Asia may be related to the degree of russification, which could be replicating documented patterns of alcohol consumption in non-Russian populations.

In this article we describe new research to investigate unintended pregnancies during the transition to adulthood. The Relationship Dynamics and Social Life (RDSL) study begins with a 60-minute in-person interview about family background and current relationship characteristics. At the conclusion of the interview, respondents are enrolled in an ongoing journal, which consists of a 5-minute survey via web or phone and occurs weekly for 2.5 years. We have enrolled over 1,000 young women in the study and have experienced excellent baseline response rates and high journal participation rates. Below we describe the limitations of past research on unintended pregnancy as a background for our study. Then we provide a detailed description of the study and its design strengths and weaknesses.

The number of countries experiencing very low fertility has been rising in recent years, garnering increasing academic, political and media attention. There is now widespread academic agreement that the postponement of fertility is a major contributing factor in the very low levels of fertility that have occurred, and yet most policy discussions have been devoted to increasing the numbers of children women have. We discuss factors in three institutions-the educational system, the labour market and the housing market-that may inadvertently have led to childbearing postponement. We highlight important components of the timing of childbearing, including its changing place within the transition to adulthood across countries and the significance of the demands of childbearing versus childrearing. Using illustrations from Europe, North America, Japan, Australia and New Zealand, we argue that the following all lead to younger childbearing: 1) an open education system whereby it is relatively easy to return to school after having dropped out for a while; 2) a shorter, smoother, easier school-to-work transition; 3) easier re-entry into the labour market after having taken time out for childrearing or any other reason; 4) greater capability of integrating childrearing into a career; 5) easier ability to obtain a mortgage with a moderately small down payment, moderately low interest rate and a long time period over which to repay the loan; and 6) easier ability to rent a dwelling unit at an affordable price. Conversely, reversing any or all of these factors would lead, other things being equal, to postponement of childbearing.